Core Viewpoint - EY economists predict that the Federal Reserve will maintain the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.50% until the end of the year, with expectations of two 25 basis point rate cuts by year-end [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Federal Reserve's Stance** - Recent comments from the Federal Reserve indicate a wait-and-see approach due to increased uncertainty in the economic outlook, with no urgency to adjust policies [1] - The policy statement is expected to remain largely unchanged, reiterating that inflation is still "a bit high" and the labor market is "solid" with a "stable low" unemployment rate [1] - **Interest Rate Projections** - The median dot plot is anticipated to remain unchanged, with expectations of two 25 basis point cuts by the end of the year [1] - Further rate cuts are projected, with a decrease of 50 basis points to 3.4% in 2026 and another reduction to 3.1% in 2027 [1] - The policymakers' estimate for the long-term neutral interest rate is likely to remain at 3% [1]

美联储即将公布最新利率决议。 当地时间6月18日，美股三大指数小幅高开，截至发稿，道指涨0.13%，标普500指数涨0.09%， 纳指涨0.05%。 | 道琼斯指数 | 42270.29 | +0.13% | | --- | --- | --- | | .DJI | | | | 标普500指数 | 5988.06 | +0.09% | | .SPX | | | | 纳斯达克综合指数 | 19531.49 | +0.05% | | .IXIC | | | | 纳斯达克中国金龙指数 | 7227.26 | -0.35% | | .HXC | | | 大型科技股多数下跌，截至发稿，微软、英伟达、苹果、谷歌A、特斯拉小幅下跌；亚马逊、Meta、博通小幅上涨。 热门中概股多数下跌，截至发稿，携程跌超4%，贝壳跌超3%，哔哩哔哩、理想汽车、京东、百度、阿里巴巴跌超1%；腾讯音乐涨超1%，蔚来等小幅上涨。此 外，脑再生科技一度跌超30%，该股此前2个交易日累涨近400%。 上周，美国初请失业金人数有所下降，但仍稳定在8个月来的最高水平附近。 美国劳工统计局公布的数据显示， 在截至6月14日的当周，首次申请失业救济的人数 减 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25%-4.50% during the June meeting, marking the fourth consecutive time it has held rates steady. However, uncertainties regarding the policy path for the second half of the year are significant, making the upcoming "dot plot" and economic outlook from the Fed crucial for market reactions [1][4][5]. Interest Rate Projections - Market expectations indicate that the Fed may lower rates twice in 2025, with a potential first cut in September or October [1][2]. - The "dot plot" is anticipated to be more significant than the decision itself, with analysts focusing on whether it will signal only one rate cut instead of two for 2025 [1][8]. Economic Forecast Adjustments - Analysts predict that the Fed will lower its GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 0.9%, down from 1.7% previously, while raising the core PCE inflation forecast to 3.3% from 2.8% [7]. - The unemployment rate forecast is also expected to rise to 4.5%, compared to the previous estimate of 4.4% [7]. Inflation and Economic Data - Recent geopolitical tensions have increased oil prices, potentially impacting inflation expectations, but analysts believe this will have limited effect on the Fed's June meeting [4]. - The core PCE inflation rate, which has decreased from a peak of 5.6% in 2022 to 2.5%, is projected to rebound to 3.4% by year-end [5]. Market Reactions and Predictions - If the "dot plot" indicates only one rate cut, it may lead to significant market volatility, potentially strengthening the dollar and putting pressure on gold and other assets [10][11]. - The market has largely ignored the resilience of U.S. economic data, focusing instead on potential downside risks, which may affect the dollar's performance in the context of global "de-dollarization" [11].

美联储决议来袭 鲍威尔如何落子？ 金十数据6月18日讯，美联储将于北京时间周四凌晨02:00公布利率决议，02:30鲍威尔将召开新闻发布 会。本次会议正值"特朗普关税"效应初显，市场深陷中东地缘冲突影响之际，全球正站在货币政策与地 缘风险的双重十字路口。市场聚焦美联储政策声明、经济展望、点阵图将作何调整，届时警惕行情剧烈 波动，更多前瞻请点击... FOMC前瞻：美联储料将按兵不动，点阵图或释放鹰派信号？ 全球金融市场将迎来美联储的重磅时刻，"点阵图"将揭示官员们的真实预期，黄金价格将何去何从？ ...

北京时间周四凌晨2:00，美联储将公布利率决定和最新经济预测摘要（SEP），随后美联储主席鲍威尔 将于2:30举行新闻发布会。 市场普遍预期联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）将把利率维持在4.25%-4.5%不变。路透社最新调查显 示，105位受访经济学家中有103位预计将维持利率不变，另有2位预计将降息25个基点。 在同一份调查中，105位经济学家中有59位预测美联储将在下个季度（可能在9月）恢复降息，而60%的 经济学家预计今年将有两次降息，这与3月的点阵图中值一致，也与货币市场定价相对吻合，后者预计 年底前将放松46个基点。 Newsquawk在其展望中指出，鉴于特朗普关税政策对经济影响的持续不确定性，美联储可能继续采 取"观望"态度，并密切关注将与利率决定一同发布的最新经济预测摘要；其中，2025年的点阵图将成为 关注焦点，目前该图预示今年将有50个基点的降息。 正如今年绝大多数委员会成员反复强调的，明确的信息是：目前没有明显的立即调整政策的必要，采取 耐心的方法是最佳选择。未来公布的数据最终将弥合在通胀和增长/就业方面存在的分歧观点。因此， 正如杰富瑞集团所指出的那样，"观望"比"先发制人"更好。 最近 ...

北京时间周四凌晨2点，美联储将公布6月利率决议及最新经济预测摘要（SEP），其中反映官员利率预 期的"点阵图"成为关键焦点。当前，对进口关税走向及地缘冲突下油价波动的不确定性加剧，正显著提 升美联储无法如3月预期般在2025年降息两次的风险。 3月点阵图中值显示，美联储官员预计2025年底前降息两次。然而，目前联邦基金利率期货市场仅赋予 降息幅度小于两次约37.7%的概率。这一预期差为今夜决议埋下风险：若点阵图中值下调至仅一次降 息，可能引发市场失望情绪。 美国总统特朗普4月对多数进口商品加征的10%基础关税，其90天暂停期将于7月结束，缺乏永久解决方 案加剧了通胀前景的不确定性。同时，近期中东紧张局势导致油价波动加剧，引发对潜在供应中断推升 通胀的担忧。这些因素叠加，正侵蚀美联储的政策空间。 金融服务公司Ebury指出，年内两次降息可能仍是多数委员的基准预期，但关税的巨大不确定性可能阻 碍他们大幅调整观点。风险在于，少数委员下调预期可能足以使点阵图中值指向仅降息一次（25基 点）。若点阵图偏鹰派，加之鲍威尔强调不急于降息，可能支撑美元走强。 市场普遍预期美联储首次降息将在9月。过去三个月，美联储官员对202 ...

Market Focus - The Federal Reserve is set to announce its June interest rate decision, with the "dot plot" reflecting officials' expectations for rate changes being a key focus for market participants [1] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly the Russia-Ukraine situation and the Israel-Iran dynamics, are influencing market volatility [2] Gold Market Analysis - Gold has experienced significant fluctuations, with a daily high of 3403 and a low of 3366, indicating a volatile trading environment [2] - The resistance level for gold has shifted from the 3403-3405 range to 3396, with further upward movement expected to face resistance at 3417-3420 and 3430-3433 [4] - Key support levels for gold are identified at 3383, 3375-3373, and 3360, with a potential downward move towards 3340 and 3320 if these levels are breached [4] Silver Market Analysis - Silver continues to rise, breaking through the 37 level, with attention on resistance at 37.5 and 38.2 for potential short positions [5] - Support levels for silver are noted at 35.5 and 34.6, indicating areas for potential long positions [5] Crude Oil Market Analysis - Crude oil is experiencing significant volatility, with recent fluctuations comparable to the past two months, driven by geopolitical factors [6] - Following a substantial drop of over 7 dollars, crude oil has shown signs of recovery, with a focus on resistance levels for potential short positions and support levels at 73.0, 69, and 71 [8]

Core Viewpoint - The key issue for the Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting is the revision of economic forecasts and the dot plot, reflecting a slowdown in growth and persistent inflation despite recent surprising developments and a weakening labor market [1] Economic Predictions - Adjustments in economic policy expectations should indicate a slowdown in growth and that inflation is more persistent than previously anticipated [1] Labor Market - The labor market is showing signs of weakness, which may influence the Federal Reserve's cautious stance [1] Monetary Policy - In the context of stagflation risks and high uncertainty, the Federal Reserve is likely to reaffirm its cautious position [1] Interest Rates - The strategy anticipates that the Federal Reserve will maintain the key interest rate unchanged during the upcoming meeting, as long as hard data does not clearly justify easing policies [1]

Economic Data and Events - China will release economic data for May, including retail sales and industrial output, with expectations of a stable performance compared to April [6][7] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is set to announce the June Loan Prime Rate (LPR) [6][7] - The U.S. will report May retail sales, with forecasts indicating a slowdown in growth [19] Central Bank Decisions - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain its current interest rates during the June meeting, with a high probability of no changes [8] - The Bank of Japan is also anticipated to keep its policy rate unchanged at 0.5% [10][11] - The European Central Bank will release its economic bulletin, providing insights into macroeconomic forecasts and inflation rates [20] International Summits - The second China-Central Asia Leaders' Summit will take place in Kazakhstan, focusing on trade and investment cooperation [17][18] - The 2025 Lujiazui Forum in Shanghai will address global economic changes and financial cooperation [14] - The G7 Summit will convene in Canada, with discussions expected to be contentious due to differing views on tariffs and international relations [15][16] Corporate Developments - Tesla plans to trial its Robotaxi service in Austin, Texas, with a limited fleet of 10 to 20 vehicles equipped with new autonomous driving technology [24]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's dot plot serves as a crucial tool for market participants to gauge future interest rate movements, despite its non-committal nature [1][2] - The dot plot records anonymous interest rate forecasts from the 19 core members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), reflecting their assessments of economic conditions [2] - The dot plot has been released quarterly since 2012 as part of a policy transparency initiative, included in the Economic Projections Summary [2] Group 2 - A dense cluster of dots in the plot indicates strong consensus among policymakers regarding the interest rate path, while a dispersed distribution suggests internal disagreements and a higher likelihood of policy shifts [4] - The median value of the dot plot is often viewed as the "baseline scenario," but extreme values can signal potential black swan risks [4] - The dot plot's predictive accuracy was notably off in 2022, where the median forecast for the end of 2023 was 4.6%, while the actual peak reached 5.25%-5.5%, highlighting its dynamic nature [4] Group 3 - Supporters of the dot plot, including former Fed Chair Janet Yellen, argue that it effectively conveys policymakers' risk assessment thinking [4] - Critics, such as economist Nouriel Roubini, contend that the dispersed predictions can exacerbate market volatility, referencing the "hawkish dot plot panic" of 2018 [4]