坐标上海： 蔬菜：生菜0.8元1斤，茼蒿菜2元一大把，香菜4元一斤，萝卜1元 水果：刚上市的西瓜3.5元一斤，鸡蛋芒果10元3斤，大水仙芒果才6.8元 对于发达国家，绿叶菜等那可是奢侈品，一般老百姓吃不起，在荷兰茼蒿卖8欧元1公斤，在 日本萝卜10元一斤，苹果15元1个，西瓜150~200元一个 对于中国人民，蔬菜和水果是完全自由的，想吃多少吃多少，如果把收入换算成蔬菜和水 果，上海等沿海地区人民的收入应该是全世界第一了吧。 这么低的物价，如此强的购买力，近一个月人民币相对于欧元/日元居然跌了10%，不可思 议！ 说不出的YD 中国不只蔬菜便宜，还有肉蛋奶、汽车、汽油、教育、养老、医疗、房租，几乎所有的消费 都比世界平均价格低了很多很多，房子不便宜但房租便宜，可以看看蓝战非环游世界时各国 的消费。 但很多人偏偏要每一项都要和世界最低价格比，幸福指数是和想象里的发达国家比，其实人 家的苦自己知道。14亿人过成这样，安全、饿不死、都能用劳动换来生存，我不认为换任何 别的国家能做到。 chenyun1979 如果你月入3000元，还觉得3.5元1斤的西瓜便宜吗？如果你已失业，你还舍得吃6.8元1斤的 芒果吗?看社会 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fluctuations in commodity prices, particularly gold and oil, while highlighting the challenges in domestic demand and the impact of tariff policies on external trade [1][6]. Domestic Demand - Real estate and automobile sales are weakening, with new home sales growth turning negative in April and second-hand home sales declining while prices rise [2]. - The average daily box office revenue during the holiday was only 126 million yuan, about half of last year's figures, although per capita spending on travel increased slightly [2]. - Post-holiday consumer activity has decreased, with declines in visitor numbers at Shanghai Disneyland, shopping districts, hotel occupancy rates, and subway passenger volumes compared to the same period last year [2]. External Demand - The escalation of tariffs between the US and China continues, with Trump suspending additional tariffs but maintaining a 10% base tariff, leading to over 100% cumulative tariffs on China since his administration began [3]. - South Korea's export growth rebounded in early April, with improvements in shipping rates and loaded ship departures, possibly due to shifting trade policies creating export demand [4]. Production - Steel and cement production remain strong, but inventory levels are rising. Steel prices have dropped significantly, particularly for export-related products, while rebar production is increasing due to remaining profit margins [5]. - Cement prices have also begun to decline, although both cement shipment rates and mill operation rates have improved compared to last year, indicating a faster supply growth despite slow recovery in infrastructure and housing demand [5]. Commodity Prices - Gold prices have reached new highs, while copper prices have rebounded and oil prices have experienced a bottoming out and subsequent rebound [6]. - The uncertainty surrounding Trump's tariff policies has led to a decrease in recessionary trades, contributing to the rise in copper prices and fluctuations in oil prices [6]. - The lack of confidence in the US dollar system, exacerbated by ineffective deficit reduction plans, has prompted market participants to sell US assets, driving gold prices to new highs [7]. Future Focus - Attention will be on the developments regarding US tariffs and the economic data for March, including export figures [10].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in CPI and PPI, highlighting a significant decline in February 2025, with CPI at -0.7% and PPI at -2.2%, indicating a notable pullback after a previous recovery [1][4][5]. Group 1: CPI and PPI Trends - February 2025 CPI decreased by 0.7% year-on-year, lower than the previous value of 0.5%, while PPI was -2.2%, slightly better than the prior -2.3% [5]. - The simulated deflation index, based on the weighted contributions of CPI and PPI, was approximately -1.3%, marking a significant retreat from the recovery seen since October 2024 [4][5]. - The decline in CPI was primarily influenced by a seasonal effect related to the timing of the Spring Festival, which affected food prices and overall inflation metrics [6][7]. Group 2: Factors Influencing CPI - The Spring Festival's timing caused a high base effect, leading to a significant drop in CPI; without this effect, CPI would have shown a slight increase of 0.1% [6][7]. - The prices of fuel and new energy vehicles fell by 5.0% and 6.0% respectively, contributing approximately 0.16 percentage points to the CPI decline [7]. - Historical data indicates that the transportation component of CPI has consistently shown negative year-on-year growth, with a notable increase in the rate of decline since 2023 [7][8]. Group 3: PPI Structural Analysis - PPI showed a mixed performance across sectors, with oil extraction and non-ferrous metallurgy experiencing month-on-month increases, while sectors like black metallurgy and coal mining saw declines [8]. - New industry products, such as photovoltaic equipment and semiconductor materials, experienced year-on-year price drops of 13.0% and 9.7% respectively, continuing to exert downward pressure on overall prices [8]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Policy Signals - The low base effect in March 2025 is expected to provide some relief, with preliminary estimates suggesting a CPI increase of 0.1% and a PPI decrease of -2.2% [9]. - The government has signaled a commitment to addressing low price levels, with a target inflation rate set at around 2%, indicating a proactive policy approach to stimulate moderate price increases [10][11]. - Proposed measures include enhancing macroeconomic policy adjustments, boosting consumption, and stabilizing the real estate and stock markets to foster a positive economic environment [11].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights two significant economic characteristics continuing from last year: strong exports but weak consumption, and notable volume growth but weak pricing. Attention should be paid to changes in these characteristics as trade tensions escalate and more consumption-boosting measures are expected post the March Two Sessions [2][4]. Group 1: Export and Consumption - Exports are expected to remain strong, with a projected year-on-year growth of 4%-5% in January-February in USD terms. Factors supporting this include companies "rushing to export" and high-frequency data indicating strong performance [4][12]. - Consumption is anticipated to be weak, with retail sales growth expected around 3.0%, down from 3.7% in December. This is influenced by the post-Spring Festival consumption dip and a decline in automobile sales growth [5][17]. Group 2: Price Trends and Economic Growth - CPI is projected to decline to around -0.8% year-on-year in February, with PPI also expected to remain negative. This is attributed to weak food prices and a post-holiday drop in core CPI [6][9]. - GDP growth for the first quarter is estimated to be between 5.2%-5.3%, with strong performance expected in finance, industry, and information sectors [6][11]. Group 3: Investment and Financial Data - Fixed asset investment growth is projected at 4.5% for January-February, driven by early-year investment activity and a rebound in construction projects [6][15]. - Financial data indicates accelerated government bond issuance, with new social financing expected to reach 3 trillion, significantly higher than the previous year [7][18].