Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the report industry investment rating [1] Group 2: Core Viewpoint of the Report - Uncertainties in China-US trade negotiations support precious metal prices. Concerns about the weakening US job market increase the expectation of future interest rate cuts by the Fed and a possible halt to balance - sheet reduction. Geopolitical conflicts in regions like Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East, expansion expectations of fiscal deficits in many countries, and continuous gold purchases by central banks globally support precious metal prices in the medium - to - long - term, but potential negative factors such as the alleviation of the US credit crisis and the end of the federal government shutdown should be watched [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metal Market Data - **Gold**: In the Shanghai market, the closing price of Shanghai Gold was 973.70 yuan/gram, with a change of - 22.20 compared to the previous day. The trading volume of spot沪金T+D was 71850.00, and the position was 258232.00. In the international market, the closing price of COMEX gold futures active contract was 4267.90 dollars/ounce, and the inventory was 39107098.30 troy ounces. The holding amount of SPDR gold ETF was 41.50 tons [1] - **Silver**: In the Shanghai market, the closing price of Shanghai Silver was 11779.00 yuan/ten grams, and the trading volume of spot沪银T+D was 1249250.00. In the international market, the closing price of COMEX silver futures active contract was 47.52 dollars/ounce, and the inventory was 506467618.32 troy ounces. The holding amount of iShare silver ETF was 487.19 tons [1] Important Information - The US listed rare earths, fentanyl, and soybeans as the three major issues in China - US economic and trade consultations. The White House economic advisor said the US government shutdown might end this week. Japan's Liberal Democratic Party and the Japan Innovation Party signed a coalition - governing document, and Takamachi Sanae is likely to become the Japanese prime minister. Vietnam's real estate market has a "trillions - level" problem [1] Trading Strategy - It is advisable to lay out long positions after price corrections. For London gold, pay attention to the support level around 3900 - 4100 and the resistance level around 4383 - 4778. For Shanghai gold, focus on the support level around 890 - 930 and the resistance level around 1000 - 1100. For London silver, watch the support level around 42 - 48 and the resistance level around 57 - 68. For Shanghai silver, pay attention to the support level around 9800 - 10800 and the resistance level around 13000 - 14800 [1]

Core Insights - The research institution Wrightson ICAP indicates that signs of funding pressure in the repurchase market may lead the Federal Reserve to halt its balance sheet reduction in the upcoming interest rate decision [1][2] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell hinted earlier this month that the central bank is waiting for the right moment to end the balance sheet reduction, with recent slight fluctuations in the repurchase market serving as a key signal [1][2] - The institution anticipates that the Federal Reserve will begin purchasing U.S. Treasury securities to offset maturing mortgage-backed securities, thereby maintaining a stable overall balance sheet size [1][2] - As the Federal Reserve shifts towards a neutral policy stance, the supply of short-term Treasury securities in the market may decrease by approximately $20 billion per month [1][2]

Core Viewpoint - The research institution Wrightson ICAP indicates that the Federal Reserve may announce the end of its balance sheet reduction next week due to signs of funding pressure in the repurchase market [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve is expected to halt the reduction of its bond holdings in the upcoming interest rate decision [1][2]. - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell hinted earlier this month that the central bank is waiting for the right moment to end the balance sheet reduction [1][2]. - The institution anticipates that the Federal Reserve will begin purchasing U.S. Treasury bonds to offset maturing mortgage-backed securities, thereby maintaining a stable overall balance sheet size [1][2]. Group 2: Market Implications - As the Federal Reserve shifts towards a neutral policy stance, the supply of short-term government bonds in the market may decrease by approximately $20 billion per month [1][2].

Core Viewpoint - The signs of funding pressure in the repurchase market may lead the Federal Reserve to announce the cessation of its balance sheet reduction in the upcoming interest rate decision [1] Group 1 - Economists at Wrightson ICAP indicate that the slight fluctuations in the repurchase market last week could serve as a key signal for the Federal Reserve [1] - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell hinted earlier this month that the central bank is waiting for the right moment to end the balance sheet reduction [1] - The institution anticipates that the Federal Reserve will begin purchasing U.S. Treasury bonds to offset maturing mortgage-backed securities, thereby maintaining a stable overall balance sheet size [1] Group 2 - As the Federal Reserve shifts towards a neutral policy stance, the monthly supply of short-term Treasury securities may decrease by approximately $20 billion [1]

Group 1 - The core issue revolves around the competition for "asset pricing power" between China and the United States, with gold and silver prices rising alongside the stability of the US stock market [2][4][5] - The US stock market's resilience is largely supported by the "AI narrative," which has inflated tech stock valuations despite weakening economic indicators [4][5] - Gold prices are linked to the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy, with recent surges driven by fears of the Fed losing its independence and the potential devaluation of the dollar [7][20] Group 2 - China's control over rare earth elements is significant not for their immediate value but for their critical role in the semiconductor supply chain, which could disrupt US tech valuations [9][11][16] - The semiconductor industry is highly sensitive to supply chain disruptions, and rare earths are essential materials that cannot be easily substituted [11][13] - China's recent rare earth regulations introduce uncertainty into the supply chain, impacting US tech companies' valuations due to the unpredictability of supply [13][16] Group 3 - The US is responding to China's actions by potentially increasing monetary supply to maintain financial asset pricing power, which could lead to inflation [18][20] - The US government's budget impasse allows for increased debt issuance, which may further complicate the Federal Reserve's ability to manage monetary policy independently [18][20] - China's recent shipping fee regulations target US inflation indirectly, as increased costs will ultimately affect American consumers and could hinder the US's monetary strategies [23][26] Group 4 - China's strategy is to leverage its control over physical assets like rare earths and shipping to challenge US financial asset pricing power [29][41] - The competition is fundamentally a race against time, with China aiming to stabilize its debt and transition its economy within five years while the US seeks to disrupt this process [32][37] - The ongoing struggle for pricing power will shape the economic landscape over the next decade, with both nations vying for dominance in asset valuation [39][41]

我问你个问题，你觉不觉得最近这市场有点不正常？ 明明消息还没落地，资金就像提前排队买票一样，生怕错过什么大事。结果一看，美联储这次真不是光降息的问题，鲍威尔那句"准备结束缩 表"，分量比降息还重。 降息25个基点本来就够市场嗨一阵，结果再加个结束缩表。等于是美联储同时踩油门和放刹车松一脚，直接给市场打了个"信心强心针"。 我脑子里当时只有一个念头：这操作，熟悉。 我当时看到那行字，整个人怔了一下。 我翻了下美联储官网数据，从2022年开始，他们缩表规模已经超过1万亿美元。现在突然停，这背后说明什么？要么是经济真扛不住了，要么是 金融系统出了他们担心的问题。路透社的数据也显示，美国9月新增非农就业人数只有13.6万人，创下半年新低，失业率从3.8%升到3.9%。看着 数字不大，但在美国那可是警钟。 2019年他们也干过类似的事，当时是降息三次加停缩表，美股就一路往上飙。标普500那年涨了28.9%，连A股都被带着走了一波。今年这套动 作，几乎照搬，只不过背景更危险——通胀还没下去。 美国劳工部公布的9月CPI同比上涨3.4%，核心CPI也有3.7%。这水平，说实话，离他们目标的2%还差一大截。按理说，不该这么快 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Despite the US federal government shutdown for over two weeks and delayed release of key economic data, the US dollar index has not significantly declined recently. This is driven by data vacuum, the "comparative disadvantage logic" of major non - US currencies, and geopolitical risks pushing up market risk - aversion. The asset reallocation from non - US currencies to commodities also indirectly supports the US dollar. However, the USD/CNY exchange rate is expected to remain stable within a reasonable range under the "stability - first" policy of the Chinese central bank, especially before the important meeting at the end of October [1][17][19]. Summary by Relevant Directory 1. Weekly Market Review and Outlook 1.1 Foreign Exchange Market Review - Last week's foreign exchange market was dominated by policy variables (new trade war risks and Fed's monetary policy signals) and the impact of the US government shutdown. The market was immune to the new trade war risks, and the Fed Chair Powell's dovish signal boosted market liquidity expectations. The euro was positively affected by the Fed's signal and short - term political stability in Europe; the yen was affected by Japan's political uncertainty; the US dollar index depreciated, and the offshore RMB, yen, euro, and pound appreciated against the US dollar, while the on - shore RMB slightly depreciated [2][4][5]. 1.2 Weekly Review of USD/CNY Spot Exchange Rate - The USD/CNY spot exchange rate showed a "rising first then falling" volatile trend last week. Key events included Fed Chair Powell's dovish signal on the balance - sheet reduction process, which was due to short - term liquidity tightness in the US money market. China released September CPI and PPI data, with CPI showing signs of improvement and PPI expected to continue improving but unlikely to turn positive this year [11][12][14]. 1.3 Market Outlook - The US dollar index's short - term strength is supported by multiple factors. However, under the Chinese central bank's policy of maintaining RMB exchange rate stability, the USD/CNY spot exchange rate is expected to remain stable within a reasonable range before the end of October [17][19]. 1.4 Strategy Suggestion - It is recommended to mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach [20]. 2. RMB Market Observation 2.1 Policy Tool Tracking - Counter - Cyclical Factor - As of last Friday, the central parity rate of the USD/CNY exchange rate depreciated by 99 basis points. The counter - cyclical factor indicates that the central bank's attitude towards the exchange rate has shifted from neutral to stabilizing the exchange rate (in the direction of RMB depreciation expectations) [22]. 2.2 Investor Expectations and Sentiment Tracking - **Enterprise Sector Expectations**: In August, China's foreign exchange market was stable, with active trading and balanced supply and demand. Cross - border funds had a net inflow, and bank settlement and sales had a surplus [26]. - **Overseas Investor Expectations**: As of last Friday, the spread between offshore and on - shore RMB showed that overseas investors' depreciation sentiment towards the RMB had declined [30]. - **Professional Investor Expectations**: As of last Friday, the 1 - year NDF closing price of the USD/CNH slightly declined, and the sentiment in the market changed little, with only a slight increase in short - term depreciation sentiment towards the RMB [32]. 2.3 Derivatives Market Tracking - **Hong Kong RMB Futures Market**: Relevant charts show the price trends and basis differences of the Hong Kong Exchange's USD/CNH futures contracts [37][38]. - **Singapore RMB Futures Market**: Relevant charts show the price trends and basis differences of the Singapore Exchange's USD/CNH futures contracts [40][41]. 3. Key Data and Events to Watch 3.1 Weekly Global Key Events Review - **China**: In September, China's foreign trade increased year - on - year; economic policies were continuously promoted, including central bank operations, data releases of M1, M2, CPI, and PPI, and statements on maintaining RMB exchange rate stability [46][47]. - **US**: Economists raised the US economic growth forecast, but employment growth was expected to be weak. There were trade frictions, government shutdown issues, and differences in Fed members' views on interest rate cuts [49][51][56]. - **UK**: The unemployment rate rose, and the private - sector wage growth slowed, triggering an upgrade in interest - rate cut expectations [53]. - **Eurozone**: Germany's economy was unlikely to recover in the third quarter [54]. - **Japan**: No significant events were reported [54]. - **Others**: The IMF raised the world economic growth forecast for 2025 and warned about the global public debt issue [54][55]. 3.2 Weekly Global Central Bank Key Statements Summary - Different central banks, including the Chinese central bank, the Fed, the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, and the Reserve Bank of Australia, had various statements on monetary policies, interest rate cuts, and exchange rate stability [55][56][59]. 3.3 This Week's Key Financial and Economic Data and Events to Watch - A series of important economic data from China, the US, Canada, Japan, and the UK, as well as central bank speeches, are to be released this week [63]. 4. International Related Market Conditions 4.1 Exchange Rates of Major Countries - Charts show the trends of exchange rates between the US dollar and major currencies such as the euro, yen, pound, etc. [64][66][70]. 4.2 Linkage of Major Asset Classes - Charts show the trends of major assets including gold, crude oil, stock indices, etc., and their relationships [84][85][86]. 4.3 Capital Situation - Charts show central bank open - market operations, Shibor quotes, and SOFR quotes [94][96]. 4.4 Sino - US Interest Rate Spread - Charts show the trends of Sino - US interest rate spreads and the yields of 10 - year US and Chinese treasury bonds [98][99]. 4.5 RMB Exchange Rate Index - Charts show the trends of three major RMB exchange rate indices [102]. 4.6 Global Economic and Trade Friction Tracking - Charts show the monthly values of the global economic and trade friction index and the year - on - year and month - on - month changes in the amount involved in global economic and trade friction measures [104][106].

Global Asset Price Performance - Bond market yields generally declined, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield down by 3 basis points [2] - In the stock market, major global indices saw mixed results, with the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq increasing by 1.7%, 1.6%, and 2.1% respectively [2] - Commodity prices showed a decline in oil prices, with WTI and Brent crude down by 7.3% and 6.4% respectively, while gold prices rose by 5.8% [2] - The U.S. dollar index weakened by 0.3% [2] Major Central Bank Monetary Policies - The Federal Reserve is considering halting its balance sheet reduction, with Chairman Powell indicating that reserves are currently sufficient and nearing the level required to stop the reduction [4] - The European Central Bank's President Lagarde stated that the monetary policy and economy are in good condition, but further rate cuts cannot be ruled out due to changing circumstances [4] U.S. Economic Dynamics - The U.S. government remains shut down, with the Senate rejecting a temporary funding bill, leading to potential layoffs of over 10,000 federal employees [9] - The NAHB housing market index rose to 37, the highest since April, driven by declining mortgage rates, while small business optimism fell to 98.8, a three-month low [9] - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book indicated stable economic activity, with some regions expressing concerns about the risks posed by the government shutdown [10] - Regional banks are facing increased risks, as Zions Bancorp and Western Alliance Bancorp reported provisions for bad loans, raising concerns about the credit system [10] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary signaled a de-escalation in the U.S.-China trade tensions, suggesting that additional tariffs are not a predetermined option [10] Other Regional Economic Dynamics - The IMF has adjusted its global growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to 3.2% and 3.1% respectively, while noting that U.S. inflation is expected to remain above target levels [17] - Eurozone industrial production showed a month-on-month decline of 1.2% in August, with major economies like Germany, Italy, and France experiencing decreases [17] - Japan's industrial output fell by 1.5% in August, marking the second consecutive month of decline, influenced by U.S. trade policy uncertainties and weak demand [17]

昨天晚上刷手机，看到一条新闻差点让我从沙发上蹦起来——美联储主席鲍威尔宣布要停止缩表了！ 可能有朋友要问了，缩表听起来挺专业，跟咱们普通人有啥关系？ 更要命的是经济数据。2025年美国GDP增速预期才1.6%，失业率要升到4.5%。你品品这数字，经济明显疲软了啊！这时候还继续抽水，不是要把 美国经济往死里整吗？ 说实话，这消息来得有点猝不及防。要知道，过去三年美联储就像个狠心的管家，拿着大剪刀咔咔咔，硬生生把自己的资产负债表从9万亿美元 砍到了6.6万亿。现在突然说要停手，这背后到底发生了什么？ 打个比方吧，你可以把美联储想象成全球金融市场的"大水龙头"。以前疫情那会儿，为了救经济，这水龙头开得哗哗的，钱像自来水一样往外 流。结果呢？钱多了就不值钱了，通胀一路飙到6.2%，创了30年新高！ 到了2022年中，美联储一看不行啊，再这么下去美元都要变废纸了。于是开始"拧紧水龙头"，专业说法就叫缩表——把市面上流通的钱收回来， 让钱变得更值钱。 这招确实挺狠的。三年时间，硬是从市场上抽走了2.4万亿美元！ 好端端的，为啥突然就不抽了？ 要我说，鲍威尔这次是真的扛不住了。 你想啊，抽水抽得太猛会出啥问题？银行的钱不够 ...

| 英伟达公司 NASDAQ:NVDA NVIDIA Corp. | | | | | * 添加自选 | 在APP中查看 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 180.03 ↓ -8.29(-4.40%) 实时标准版 14.04.00PM EDT | | | 极速版 ◆ | ESG 成交量:4,769,328 | 帝后:181.17 1.14(0.63%) | | | | | | | | Oct 14 05:07PM EDT | | | 详细行情 | | | 基本面摘要 | | | | | 开盘: 184.77 前收盘: | | 188.32 | 市盈室: | 50.86 市值: | 43747.29亿 | | | 成交量: | 2.03亿 区间: | 179.70-184.80 | 每股收益: | 3.54 股本: | 243.00亿 | | | 10日均量: | 1.72亿 52周区间: | 86.60-195.62 | 贝塔圣教: | -- 股鳥/收益率: | 0.01/ -- | | | 分时 | 5日 年线 YTD | 日K 高K | 月K 年 ...