Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The global economy has passed its peak and is starting to decline due to continuous wrong policies in the US [2] - There is significant uncertainty in the global economic situation, influenced by factors such as potential inflation resurgence, Fed policy changes, and geopolitical issues [1][2] Summary by Related Content Global Economic News - Global financial giants like BlackRock, Pimco, and Bridgewater are guarding against inflation resurgence, with the 10 - year inflation swap reaching its highest increase in a year. Some top - tier institutions warn that inflation may return above 4% by the end of the year [1] - Morgan Stanley believes that the Fed's current large balance sheet is a decision of the existing FOMC. If unemployment drops further, spending remains strong, and inflation doesn't decline, the Fed may keep interest rates unchanged this year [1] - Oracle plans to raise up to $50 billion in 2026 through bond and equity financing for cloud infrastructure expansion, but it already has $95 billion in debt [1] - Red杉 Capital partner thinks SpaceX's valuation has soared from $36 billion in 2019 to $800 billion, and Musk's business value is still underestimated [1] - Tesla will unveil the third - generation humanoid robot, with a planned annual production of 1 million units. The Model S/X production line at the Fremont factory will be converted, and mass production is expected to start by the end of 2026 [1] - The market interprets Japan's statement on "enhancing economic resilience to exchange - rate fluctuations" as a cautious downgrade of direct yen intervention. The yen faces a rising risk of a short - term decline [1] - Due to inflation stickiness and strong employment, the market is re - evaluating the Reserve Bank of Australia's policy. The probability of a 25 - basis - point rate hike this week has risen to 73%, and the 10 - year bond yield is approaching 5% [1] - Japan officially confirmed no actual intervention in the foreign - exchange market in January. The future of the yen is uncertain as the US denies coordinated action, and Japan may face stronger intervention pressure after the election [1] Global Economic Logic - Bridgewater's Dalio warns that the US is at risk of civil war, and investors should be aware of capital - control risks [2] - The expected balance - sheet reduction policy of Fed nominee chair Wash has a strong negative impact on global equity and commodity assets [2] - Geopolitical actions by the US, such as seizing Venezuelan oil and attempting to buy Greenland, bring great uncertainty to the global economy [2] - Nomura says Fed - related uncertainties may peak from July to November 2026, potentially leading to a "flight from US assets" [2] - Goldman Sachs warns that the decline in Las Vegas gambling revenue is similar to the early warning signs before the 2008 financial crisis [2] - The US is adjusting its economic relationship with China and aiming to revive its economic autonomy [2] - The Fed's Beige Book shows a K - shaped consumer spending pattern, with high - income consumers maintaining spending while low - and middle - income families cut back [2] - TSMC's Q4 performance and 2026 revenue guidance signal the continuation of the AI boom [2] - Musk hopes to achieve full rocket reusability with Starship this year, which could reduce space - entry costs by 100 times to below $100 per pound [2] - The US's return to the Monroe Doctrine will have a profound impact on major asset classes [2] - Wash's proposed combination of rate cuts and balance - sheet reduction indicates a major shift in Fed policy, creating expectations of strong liquidity contraction for equity assets [2]

量化宽松，就是金融危机后美联储开着直升机撒钱救市，疯狂购买国债和各类债券，把资产负债表从不到1万亿美元膨胀到现在的近7万亿美元。 沃什认 为这剂药方副作用太大，于是在2011年愤然离职。 如今，他带着更激进的理念回来了。 就在这个周末，全球资本市场的神经被一条消息骤然绷紧。 特朗普正式提名凯文·沃什担任下一任美联储主席。 这个消息，被许多市场分析人士直接标注 为"2026年第一只黑天鹅"。 为什么一个职位提名能有这么大威力？ 因为这位可能的"全球央行行长"，脑子里想的政策组合，在过去几十年里都堪称"异类"——他主张一边降低利率刺激经济，一边大刀阔斧地缩减美联储庞 大的资产负债表。 翻译成大白话就是，他可能一边开闸放一点水，另一边却想把整个池塘挖掉一大块。 这种自相矛盾的操作，直接把华尔街给整不会 了。 咱们先来认识一下这位"天选之子"，凯文·沃什。 他的履历金光闪闪，是典型的犹太精英。 但让他脱颖而出的，恐怕不只是才华。 他的妻子是雅诗兰黛集 团的继承人，而他的岳父，不仅是特朗普的大学同学和多年好友，更是那个曾撺掇特朗普买下格陵兰岛的"神人"。 这层深厚的私人与家族关系，是他获得提名的第一块基石。 当然，沃什 ...

Core Viewpoint - Kevin Warsh has been nominated by Trump to serve as the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, raising questions about his potential policy stance given his past views on inflation and interest rates [4][21]. Group 1: Background and Historical Context - In June 2008, Warsh expressed concerns about inflation risks, which he considered the primary threat to the U.S. economy, even as the financial crisis began to unfold [4][18]. - By early 2009, despite rising unemployment rates reaching 10%, Warsh continued to focus on inflation risks rather than the economic downturn [4][19]. Group 2: Current Economic Views and Predictions - Recently, Warsh has advocated for interest rate cuts, citing productivity gains and the impact of artificial intelligence as factors supporting rapid economic growth without high inflation [8][22]. - Analysts, including Michael Feroli from JPMorgan, predict that Warsh may push for rate cuts this year, but his stance could shift back to a more hawkish position after the midterm elections [8][22]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Implications - Following Warsh's nomination, U.S. stock markets declined, the dollar rebounded, and precious metals like gold and silver experienced significant drops, indicating market concerns about his potential hawkish policies [10][24]. - Gold fell by 8% and silver dropped 25%, marking the largest single-day decline since 1980, reflecting investor anxiety over inflation and Fed independence [10][24]. Group 4: Warsh's Career and Political Dynamics - Warsh's career has been characterized as hawkish, with a history of supporting tight monetary policies even during economic crises [25][27]. - Trump's nomination of Warsh is seen as a strategic choice for a traditional Republican candidate, with Warsh's extensive experience in economic policy making him a suitable candidate for the Fed [25][27]. Group 5: Future Considerations and Independence - Warsh's term as Fed Chairman could extend beyond Trump's presidency, potentially allowing him greater independence in decision-making [28][30]. - The Supreme Court's stance on Fed independence may further protect Warsh's position, especially if it rules against Trump's attempts to influence Fed appointments [30].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent actions of the Federal Reserve, highlighting a pause in interest rate cuts while indicating a slightly hawkish stance, which has led to adjustments in asset prices. The appointment of Kevin Walsh as the new Fed Chair is seen as a catalyst for market adjustments, particularly in precious metals, but the article suggests this is a short-term reaction rather than a fundamental shift in market dynamics [1][2][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to pause interest rate cuts during its meeting on January 28, 2026, reflecting a more optimistic outlook on the economy, employment, and inflation, which increases uncertainty regarding future rate cuts [2][3]. - The dollar index began to rise, while U.S. stock markets experienced fluctuations, with precious metals initially rising but later facing corrections due to the Fed's hawkish signals [2][3]. Group 2: Kevin Walsh's Appointment - Kevin Walsh's nomination as the next Fed Chair was unexpected in terms of timing and his policy stance, which emphasizes Fed independence and a pragmatic approach to monetary policy, advocating for both rate cuts and balance sheet reduction [2][3]. - The market does not expect Walsh's policy proposals to be implemented in the short term, as there are constraints related to dollar liquidity and employment pressures, despite the Fed's potential for technical balance sheet expansion starting December 2025 [3]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Following Walsh's appointment, there was significant volatility in commodity markets, particularly in precious metals, which the article attributes to a rapid prior increase in prices rather than a fundamental change in market conditions [3]. - The article notes that while Walsh's appointment has some catalytic effects on market dynamics, it does not signify a fundamental shift in Fed policy direction, suggesting that precious metal prices may find support after short-term technical adjustments [3]. Group 4: Global Asset Performance - During the week of January 26 to February 1, 2026, global asset prices showed mixed performance, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 2.38% and the S&P 500 increasing by 0.34%, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.44% [4]. - Commodity prices were also mixed, with Brent crude oil futures rising by 6.65% and the London gold price declining by 2.03% [4].

我的个人看法：黄金短期可能会跌，只是可能啊，中长期（比如年内）会止跌反弹，甚至不排除会出现历史新高。 作者：今纶 黄金今天继续暴跌。 说实话，我虽然长期看好黄金，但没有想过黄金此前会涨那么猛。如今，我也没想到黄金会跌得这么惨。 先说大家关心的： 我的个人看法是，黄金短期可能会跌，只是可能啊，中长期会止跌反弹，甚至不排除会出现历史新高。 黄金为什么会跌？两个原因： 原因一，美东时间周五（1月30日），美国总统特朗普宣布，将任命前美联储理事凯文·沃什接替鲍威尔，出任新一任美联储主席。 本来，大家都觉得他是支持降息的，对美股、黄金都是利好。 沃什的妻子是雅诗兰黛女继承人简·兰黛，两人2002年结婚。沃什的岳父罗纳德·劳德正是特朗普的多年好友、美国化妆品巨头雅诗兰黛集团继承人。 ▲沃什和妻子 劳德与特朗普曾是同学，相识逾60年。 原因二，黄金的获利盘太多，量化助推跌势。 综合四大趋势来看（地缘风险增加、美元弱势、央行持仓多元化、工业领域用量增加），黄金确实会涨。 但是，黄金在2026年涨得太猛，出乎我的意料，今年的大涨过程中，除了保持定投，我没有其他动作。 ▲图源：每日经济新闻 当沃什风暴开始扩散的时候，获利者慌了， ...

Core Viewpoint - The appointment of Waller as the Federal Reserve Chair by Trump has led to market speculation about potential interest rate cuts and adjustments to the Fed's balance sheet, influencing U.S. Treasury yields [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - U.S. Treasury yields have slightly increased across most maturities due to heightened demand for safe-haven assets amid a sell-off in precious metals [1] - The market is betting on the possibility of three interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year following Waller's nomination [1] Group 2: Economic Insights - Mohit Kumar, Chief Economist at Jefferies International, notes that Waller's hawkish stance and criticism of the Fed's balance sheet expansion may not logically align with Trump's preference [1] - Guy Stear, Head of Developed Markets Strategy at Amundi, indicates that the market expects lower short-term rates while the Fed manages its balance sheet, which could lead to a steeper yield curve [1] Group 3: Potential Implications - There is speculation that if long-term rates begin to rise during the steepening of the yield curve, the Federal Reserve may face pressure to expand its balance sheet [1]

来源 | 美股投资网 美东时间1月30日周五，特朗普通过社交平台正式宣布，他将提名凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）为下一任美联储主席人选，接替任期将于2026 年5月届满的鲍威尔。 特朗普在帖文中称沃什是"备受尊敬、不会让人失望"的人选。 以下文章来源于美股投资网 ，作者StockWe.com 美股投资网 . 美国洛杉矶投资公司，TradesMax.com为美股投资者提供美股行情和投资策略的专业网站。一支有着多年华尔街投资银行工作经验的美籍分析师团队，提供 公司研究报告、美股交易技巧、美股软件、美股开户指南、微信客服niugu88，微博美股投资网 在提名消息发酵的同时，早盘公布12月PPI通胀数据，不仅同比增长3.0%超出预期，核心PPI更是飙升至3.3%，为近半年最大单月涨幅。这意 味着生产端价格压力并未明显缓解，再次打击了市场对快速降息的预期。 | Metric | Actual | Estimate | | --- | --- | --- | | PPI final demand (MoM) | +0.5% | +0.2% | | PPI ex. food, energy (MoM) | +0.7% ...

从暴涨到暴跌 过去几年黄金单边牛市，涨多跌少。 盘点下事情经过。 1 黄金遭遇40年来最大跌幅，白银日内跌幅创历史纪录。 FOMO情绪愈演愈烈，怕踏空大过怕被套，趋势投资者跑步进场。 杠杆激增，净多头头寸历史高位，短期超买，金价加速暴涨。 上周四，传出川普可能提名鹰派人物沃什为下一任美联储主席的消息，美元贬值预期被削弱，部分获利 盘结账跑路，黄金日内巨震。 上周五，川普正式提名，果然是沃什，更多获利盘结账跑路，触发算法跟进和羊群效应。 杠杆踩踏，流动性短暂枯竭。 保证金比例和波动率正相关，随着金银波动率飙升，CME宣布提高保证金比例，防范系统性风险，黄 金从6%升至8%，白银从11%升至15%。 今天，保证金比例正式生效，部分走钢丝的杠杆多头要么主动平仓，要么被动强平。 短期集中抛售，结果瀑布了。 搬运一段他参加圆桌对话的视频，你们感受下。 川普倾向弱美元，和沃什的目标背道而驰，为啥提名沃什，为啥不找个yes-man？ 有三点原因。 A、有深厚的华尔街背景和美联储工作经验，绝非制度的破坏者，能够让市场松口气。 B、表面鹰派，让市场认为他不会沦为工具人，维持美联储专业形象和独立性，抵消川普干预美联储的 担忧。 ...

而贵金属指数今天也出现了跌停，看起来跌势非常的猛烈，但从我自身的理解看，这种下跌能否改变需求紧张的格局吗？答案是否定的，既然改变不了基本 面，有什么可担心的，我也从来不认为美联储的换届就一定能够重塑美元信用，站在这样的立场上，面对今天市场情绪的过度紧张，我觉得这个时候反而应 该更冷静一些。 免责声明：文中内容仅供参考，不构成任何操作建议或提示，基金有风险，投资请谨慎！ 这个时候各位可以想想，记得在上周的时候，黄金期货价格到了5600美元，如果再与当下的4500美元做一个对比，相当于很短的时间，黄金价格下跌幅度超 过20%，应该说这种力度和跌幅相当之大了。 对于贵金属这波大波动幅度的原因，大家也都清楚，多少与川大提名的美联储未来新任负责人沃什有关，市场预期宽松的货币政策周期有结束的可能性，以 沃什的风格美联储未来存在缩表的可能性，很显然这是有利于恢复美元信用，会使得之前持续很长时间的全球流动性逻辑重塑，应该说这是连续两个交易日 贵金属和有色金属大跌的主要原因。 但是我以为，最近两个交易日贵金属以及金属价格的大跌，本质上还是与此前大幅度上涨有关，累计获利盘与市场利空刚好形成了一致，才出现了做空动能 超额释放现象。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, domestic commodities in China first rose and then fell. Industrial products slightly declined after the rise, while agricultural products slightly increased. At the beginning of the week, supported by multiple positive factors, precious metals and non - ferrous metals rose significantly, driving the collective rise of commodities. However, with the confirmation of the nominee for the Fed Chair (the final candidate is more hawkish than expected), the market adjusted significantly, with precious metals crashing and non - ferrous metals falling sharply [3]. - The Fed suspended rate cuts as scheduled on January 28, maintaining the federal funds rate in the 3.50% - 3.75% range. The market expects a more than 60% probability of two 25 - basis - point rate cuts by the end of 2026. The new Fed Chair nominee may affect future rate - cut expectations. Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair, whose "hawkish" background may support the US dollar and put pressure on stocks, bonds, and precious metals [4]. - Japan's Prime Minister warned against currency speculation, and the yen continued to rise. The market speculated about US - Japan joint intervention in the foreign exchange market, and the Japanese bond market also fluctuated [4]. - In January, China's manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMIs both declined, and economic activities slowed down compared with the previous month. However, production remained in expansion, and positive demand - side policies provided a foundation for the economy in the first quarter. In 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above a designated size increased by 0.6% year - on - year, reversing the three - year decline. The 2026 tax reform aims to balance the central - local fiscal relationship and optimize the tax structure, which may relieve local debt risks [5]. - Commodity volatility is rising, and the strength of different sectors may change. The confirmation of the Fed Chair nominee may lead to a rebound in the US dollar index, suppressing precious metals and non - ferrous metals. China's policies to expand domestic demand may benefit some commodities, and geopolitical and weather factors may support energy prices [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PART ONE: Main Views - **Market Performance**: This week, domestic commodities first rose and then fell. Industrial products slightly declined, and agricultural products slightly increased. The market adjusted after the confirmation of the Fed Chair nominee [3]. - **Overseas Factors**: The Fed suspended rate cuts, and the market expects rate cuts by the end of 2026. Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair, and Japan's currency and bond markets fluctuated [4]. - **Domestic Factors**: In January, China's manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMIs declined. In 2025, industrial profits increased, and the 2026 tax reform may relieve local debt risks [5]. - **Commodity Views**: Commodity volatility is rising, and sector strength may change due to factors such as the Fed Chair nominee, China's policies, and geopolitical and weather factors [6] PART TWO: Overseas Situation Analysis - **US Fed Policy**: The Fed suspended rate cuts on January 28, maintaining the federal funds rate in the 3.50% - 3.75% range. The market expects a more than 60% probability of two 25 - basis - point rate cuts by the end of 2026 [4]. - **Nominee for Fed Chair**: Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair. Warsh has a "hawkish" background, and his policies may support the US dollar and put pressure on stocks, bonds, and precious metals [4]. - **Japan's Situation**: Japan's Prime Minister warned against currency speculation, and the yen continued to rise. The market speculated about US - Japan joint intervention in the foreign exchange market, and the Japanese bond market also fluctuated [4] PART THREE: Domestic Situation Analysis - **PMI Data**: In January, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, a 0.8 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, also a 0.8 - percentage - point decrease. Economic activities slowed down, but production remained in expansion [5][26]. - **Industrial Profits**: In 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above a designated size was 73982 billion yuan, a 0.6% year - on - year increase, reversing the three - year decline [5][29]. - **Tax Reform**: The 2026 tax reform aims to balance the central - local fiscal relationship and optimize the tax structure, which may relieve local debt risks [5] PART FOUR: High - Frequency Data Tracking - **Industrial开工率**: The report shows the开工率 data of the polyester industry chain and the blast furnace开工率 in China, but specific trends and analyses are not detailed in the summary [36]. - **Commodity Prices**: The report shows the price data of fruits, agricultural products, and pork, but specific trends and analyses are not detailed in the summary [49]