Group 1 - The core argument of the report is that tariffs are not a zero-sum game and have significant implications for U.S. Treasury securities and the U.S. dollar, with a focus on the broader economic impact rather than just the immediate costs to producers and consumers [1][2] - Tariffs paid by U.S. importers are projected to amount to $327 billion annually, which represents 1% of the nominal GDP for 2025 [2][6] - If companies fully absorb the tariff costs, profit margins could drop from 13.8% to 11.7% in Q1 2025, significantly below the 15-year moving average of 12.2% [2][12] Group 2 - The report highlights that if 75% of the tariffs are passed on to consumers, profit margins could exceed the 15-year moving average by 1.1 percentage points [12][13] - The analysis indicates that the current economic environment is leaning towards downside risks, with a noted decline in air passenger traffic compared to previous years [17] - The report suggests that despite some foreign investors increasing their holdings in U.S. stocks, there is a notable trend of U.S. domestic investors reducing their exposure, indicating a potential reallocation of assets [34][36]

欧洲央行副行长金多斯：对美国的怀疑态度反映在美元上。 ...

美国明尼阿波利斯联储主席Kashkari：我不会赌美元不再是最重要的货币。 ...

金十数据6月26日讯，据外媒分析报道，如果特朗普在9月的美联储利率决议之前宣布鲍威尔的接班人， 那么美元的形势可能会由"坏"变成"更坏"。因为一旦如此，意味着鲍威尔任期内剩下的六次会议都将 在"继任者阴影"下进行（其任期将于明年5月结束），这可能削弱鲍威尔的权威，进而打击美元。如果 鲍威尔领导的美联储在下月连续第五次按兵不动，那么这种情况发生的几率就会增加，因为那将激怒特 朗普。当前市场预计美联储在7月30日降息的概率为25%。 外媒：若美联储7月不降息，特朗普将给鲍威尔安排个"影子" ...

美元延续弱势，在岸人民币日内随多数亚币走升，并刷新去年11月以来新高。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. dollar remains the global reserve currency, and there is no opinion on whether it is overvalued [1] Group 1 - The statement emphasizes the continued dominance of the U.S. dollar in the global financial system [1] - The lack of a stance on the dollar's valuation indicates a neutral position regarding its current market status [1]

Core Viewpoint - The narrative suggesting the decline of the US dollar as the primary safe-haven currency is considered premature and somewhat exaggerated [1] Group 1 - The US dollar continues to hold its position as the leading safe-haven currency [1]

美联储哈玛克：无需过度夸大（投资者）远离美元这一迹象。 ...

美联储哈玛克：我们尚未看到投资者放弃美元的迹象，而是逐步转向更中性的位置。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the U.S. is actively promoting stablecoins not only to mitigate risks associated with U.S. debt but also to deepen the influence of the dollar on the global financial system [1] - If stablecoins spread without restrictions, the influence of the dollar could further erode the sovereignty of other countries' currencies [1] - The Italian Finance Minister has warned that dollar-pegged stablecoins could "crowd out" the euro [1] Group 2 - The impact of stablecoins will be more direct and severe for developing countries with weak currency systems and high inflation [1]