Group 1: Analysis of RMB Exchange Rate Stability - Despite intensified US-China trade tensions and cumulative tariffs exceeding 100%, the RMB to USD exchange rate remains stable, even slightly appreciating, which exceeds market expectations [2][3] - External factors contributing to this stability include the depreciation of the USD due to a crisis of confidence, as well as the impact of Trump's policies that have led to a significant decline in the USD index, which has dropped over 7% this year [3][4] - Internal factors include the anticipation of external pressures reflected in the RMB's previous adjustments, as well as government measures to stabilize the market, such as the introduction of financial policies and the release of stabilizing signals in the exchange rate [4][6] Group 2: Future Support for RMB Exchange Rate - The RMB exchange rate is supported by four key factors: the negative impact of Trump's tariffs on the US economy, ongoing USD credit crises, the resumption of US-China economic dialogues, and the adequacy of China's policy reserves to stabilize market expectations [5][6] - The potential for a shift to two-way fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate is increasing, driven by the convergence of economic cycles and monetary policies between China and the US [6][7] Group 3: Corporate Exchange Rate Risk Management - Companies are advised to adopt a "risk-neutral" approach to manage exchange rate risks, avoiding unilateral bets on RMB appreciation or depreciation [8][9] - Recommended strategies include natural hedging through matching foreign exchange income and expenses, promoting the use of RMB for settlements, and utilizing foreign exchange derivatives to hedge against potential fluctuations [8][9]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - Gold: No specific rating information [1] - Silver: ★★★, representing a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1][4] Group 2: Core Views - Overnight, precious metals continued to adjust with large intraday fluctuations. After the Fed meeting, Powell didn't release incremental information, and the prospect of interest - rate cuts was somewhat dampened. The dollar credit crisis and global political and economic uncertainties support the long - term upward trend of the gold price. In the short term, with the intertwining of trade negotiation and geopolitical news, the gold price fluctuates frequently at historical highs, and investors should wait for pull - back opportunities to enter the market. Attention should be paid to the speeches of multiple Fed officials tonight [1] Group 3: Summary of Related News Trade News - The US and the UK reached a trade agreement, including retaining a 10% benchmark tariff on the UK, expanding market access for both sides, canceling tariffs on UK steel and aluminum, implementing a 0% tariff on US agricultural products, and a stepped tariff on UK car imports. The US Trade Representative may take enforcement actions on imported services. Trump announced that the UK agreed to a $10 billion Boeing aircraft purchase agreement. The US Commerce Secretary hopes to reach a trade agreement with a major Asian country. The EU plans to impose additional tariffs on $95 billion worth of US products due to difficult negotiations. An Indian official said that a free - trade agreement with the UK will be signed in three months [2] Trump - related News - Trump called Powell "Mr. Too Late" and a fool, called on people to buy stocks at a press conference, is seeking to raise taxes on the rich with an annual income of over $2.5 million to 39.6%, and called for a 30 - day unconditional cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine [2] India - Pakistan Conflict News - The Pakistani military has shot down 25 Indian drones with casualties on the Pakistani side. The US Secretary of State called his counterparts in India and Pakistan, supporting direct dialogue between the two sides. The Indian Defense Minister said that "Operation Vermilion" is ongoing, not wanting the situation to escalate but not backing down either. The Pakistani Foreign Minister said that the national security advisers of India and Pakistan had contact after the situation escalated. India claimed that Pakistani forces attacked Indian - controlled Kashmir, which Pakistan denied [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the increasing gold-silver ratio, indicating that gold retains its monetary attributes more strongly than silver, which has a more pronounced commodity nature [1][5][6] - The gold-silver ratio has historically fluctuated, with significant increases observed during economic downturns, particularly in the 1980s and post-2008 financial crisis [2][3][6] - The recent rise in the gold-silver ratio is attributed to concerns over a potential U.S. economic recession, alongside the stronger monetary characteristics of gold compared to silver [5][6] Group 2 - The global silver supply is projected to be approximately 31,574 tons in 2024, with an expected increase of around 480 tons in 2025, primarily driven by mining output [11] - Silver's supply is increasingly influenced by by-products from copper and lead-zinc mining, with a notable portion of silver production coming from these sources [13][17] - The demand for silver is categorized into industrial, jewelry, and investment needs, with industrial demand expected to grow by about 4% in 2024, particularly driven by the solar energy sector [19][20] Group 3 - Speculative demand plays a crucial role in the pricing of precious metals, with gold being favored over silver during times of economic uncertainty [28][30] - The inflow of funds into gold ETFs often correlates with significant price increases, highlighting the impact of speculative trading on gold prices [30] - The Basel III regulations have enhanced the status of physical gold as a reserve asset for central banks, contributing to increased gold purchases and further supporting its price [32][33]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Positive (Three stars indicating a clearer uptrend and current appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Silver: Positive (Three stars indicating a clearer uptrend and current appropriate investment opportunities) [1] Core View - The precious metals market experienced a volatile day with an initial rise followed by a decline. The Fed maintained interest rates for the third consecutive time, highlighting increased risks of inflation and rising unemployment. Powell provided no new information and is inclined to wait for more economic data before making further interest - rate adjustments. The long - term upward trend of gold prices is supported by the US dollar credit crisis and global political and economic uncertainties. However, trade negotiations and geopolitical disputes cause significant fluctuations in gold prices at historical highs. A strategy of buying on dips is recommended [1]. Summary by Related Information Central Bank Gold Reserves - China's central bank reported a gold reserve of 73.77 million ounces at the end of April, an increase of 70,000 ounces from the previous month, marking the sixth consecutive month of gold purchases [2]. Geopolitical Tensions - In the India - Pakistan situation, India will conduct large - scale air combat exercises near the international border in Rajasthan. India warns of a response if Pakistan retaliates. Israel supports India's right to self - defense, while Pakistan's defense minister attempts to avoid a full - scale war [2]. Tariff Issues - The EU's trade chief will announce preparations for counter - measures against US tariffs on Thursday. The EU threatens to impose tariffs on Boeing and US cars if trade negotiations fail. Trump is unaware of tariff exemptions for baby products, and the word "tariff" was mentioned over 20 times in Powell's press conference [2]

Core Viewpoint - The recent performance of gold futures indicates a decline, influenced by the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates and the rising risks of inflation and unemployment [1][2]. Market Data - On May 8, the closing price for Shanghai gold futures was 790.78 yuan per gram, reflecting a decrease of 1.41% [1]. - The trading volume for the day was 565,698 contracts, with an open interest of 198,555 contracts [1]. - The spot price for gold in Shanghai was quoted at 803 yuan per gram, showing a premium of 12.22 yuan per gram over the futures price [1]. Federal Reserve Insights - The Federal Reserve has kept interest rates unchanged for the third consecutive meeting, highlighting increased risks related to inflation and unemployment [2]. - Chairman Powell expressed uncertainty regarding the economic outlook, stating that it is unclear whether the economy will continue stable growth or face stagnation due to rising uncertainties and potential inflation [1][2]. - The Fed's current stance indicates a preference to await more economic data before making further adjustments to monetary policy [2]. Market Sentiment - The gold market is experiencing weak fluctuations, with geopolitical tensions and trade negotiations contributing to volatility [2]. - Despite the current fluctuations, there is a long-term upward trend in gold prices supported by uncertainties in the global economic and political landscape [2].

目前，美国危机的三大死结有：1. 债务雪球越滚越快，今年美国政府每借100美元，就有62美元用于支付旧债利息。2. 政 策工具箱已见底美联储去年加息525个基点，通胀却依然卡在3.5%高位。更尴尬的是，对华加征的关税反而让沃尔玛的自 行车涨价40%，特斯拉上海工厂产能却扩张了3倍。3. 美元信用出现裂痕巴西总统卢拉公开质问："凭什么要用美元买中国 商品？"如今金砖国家47%的贸易改用本币结算，沙特甚至开始接受人民币购买石油。 据新华财经报道，日前，美国财政部公布了2025年2月份的TIC报告。据该报告披露，2月份外国（地区）持有美债规模为 88,172亿美元，环比增加2,217亿美元，同比增加8,179亿美元。最新数据显示，美国联邦债务总额已经膨胀到36.2万亿美 元，其中约9.2万亿美元在2025年陆续到期，占该国债务总额的25.4%，引发了人们对其对其金融市场、利率和经济稳定 的担忧。此外，创纪录的美国政府赤字支出水平也推动了债务的迅速积累。 这段时间以来美国政府的经济政策一日三变，近日最大的新闻自然是美国"股债汇三杀"导致特朗普一点一点地食言，不 断放软原本极为强硬的态度。所谓"股债汇三杀"，就是美国股 ...

Group 1 - The Shanghai gold spot price on May 6 was quoted at 795.4 CNY per gram, showing a premium of 0.6 CNY over the futures main price of 794.80 CNY per gram [1] - The closing price for the Shanghai gold futures on May 6 was 794.80 CNY per gram, with a daily increase of 1.39% and a trading volume of 197,944 contracts [1] - MFS Investment Management's chief economist indicated that the U.S. Treasury market is returning to normal after a brief period of turmoil, with the Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting being closely watched for potential dovish signals [1] Group 2 - During the May Day holiday, precious metals experienced wide fluctuations, with mixed economic data from the U.S. providing the Federal Reserve with room to maintain patience [2] - The outlook for the U.S. economy remains uncertain due to trade tensions, and the Federal Reserve is likely to keep interest rates unchanged in May [2] - The global economic and political uncertainties, along with a potential credit crisis for the U.S. dollar, are expected to support a long-term upward trend in gold prices [2]

Group 1 - The article discusses China's strategy to counteract the potential financial crisis stemming from the U.S. debt situation, which has reached nearly $29 trillion as of September 22 [1] - Since 2018, China has sold off $183.9 billion in U.S. Treasury bonds, making it the largest seller during this period, while also facing the challenge of maintaining a significant holding of over $1 trillion in U.S. debt [1][11] - The article highlights a broader trend where 28 countries, including Russia, have collectively sold over $2 trillion in U.S. debt since 2017, indicating a loss of confidence in the U.S. dollar [1] Group 2 - The U.S. claims to hold 8,100 tons of gold, but there are growing doubts about the authenticity of this figure, reflecting a lack of trust in the U.S. financial system [3][6] - The article notes that the U.S. has significantly reduced its holdings of U.S. bonds, with Russia holding only $3 billion in debt and over 90% of its U.S. bond holdings cleared [5][11] - The decline in confidence in the U.S. dollar is evident, with its market share dropping from 73% in 2020 to a 25-year low of 59% [8] Group 3 - China is actively increasing its gold reserves as a hedge against the risks associated with U.S. debt, with gold being viewed as a more stable asset in the global market [12][15] - In July, China imported 55 tons of gold, and by September 2021, it had acquired at least 470 tons from international markets, while over 1,250 tons of gold have been withdrawn from the U.S. by various countries [12] - The article emphasizes that if a U.S. debt crisis occurs, the global financial market's confidence in the dollar could collapse, leading to a shift towards gold as the primary medium of exchange [14] Group 4 - The article argues that the internationalization of the renminbi (RMB) is crucial for China to avoid being financially exploited by the U.S., as the dollar's dominance allows the U.S. to "harvest" global wealth [16][19] - Financial sovereignty is highlighted as a critical issue, with the article stating that without it, China risks being manipulated by foreign capital, which could have severe consequences for its economy [18] - The need for the RMB to be accepted as a global settlement currency is underscored, as this would mitigate the risks associated with U.S. monetary policy and its impact on global wealth distribution [19]

Report Investment Ratings - Gold: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Silver: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] Core Viewpoints - The dollar credit crisis and the uncertainty of the global political and economic situation support the long - term upward trend of the center of gold prices. This week, with the release of important economic data such as non - farm payrolls in the US, precious metals may maintain sharp fluctuations, and position control and light - participation are needed before the holiday. Tonight, attention should be paid to US ADP employment, PCE, and first - quarter GDP data [1] Other Key Points Tariff - related - Trump relaxed the auto tariff policy to relieve the impact on local automakers. The US Commerce Secretary reached a trade agreement with an anonymous country. Trump plans to use AI chips as a new bargaining chip in trade negotiations. The US said Europe did not participate well in tariff issues. Walmart notified Chinese suppliers to resume shipments. The White House criticized Amazon for showing tariff prices, calling it a "hostile political act" [2] Ukraine - related - The US Secretary of State requires Ukraine to provide specific proposals and will withdraw from mediation if there is no progress. Putin is reported to have requested control of 4 regions in Ukraine during talks with the US [2] US Economic Data - The number of job openings in the US in March dropped to the lowest level since September last year. The US Conference Board consumer confidence in April plunged to a nearly five - year low. The US merchandise trade deficit in March widened to a record $162 billion [2]

金价像脱缰的野马，2024年初还在2050美元晃悠，到了2025年直接飙到3500美元，涨了七成多。 而美元却像漏气的皮球，购买力直线崩盘，有人甚至喊它要贬值90%。 人民币可不甘示弱，带着黄金筹码在国际舞台上大杀四方，结算量猛涨，中东土豪都开始用人民币买金。 美元的霸主地位晃得厉害，人民币国际化势头猛得像要追平它。 这场货币大战，到底谁能笑到最后？ 文案：凤梨 编辑：凤梨 国际金市最近可以说是十分热闹，买盘一波接一波，伦敦金交所一天能涌入30亿美金的订单。 亚洲的央行们买的最积极，中国、印度、土耳其，一个比一个出手狠，2025年一季度，全球央行买的黄金占了全年需求的四分之一。 这可不是投机炒作，黄金这东西不生利息，也不像股票能分红，但它有个真本事——能扛住货币贬值的风险。 回想1971年，美元跟黄金彻底分手，布雷顿森林体系崩了。 那会金价才35美元，如今3500美元，美元的购买力硬生生缩水了99%，这数字听着吓人，但市场反应更直接。 数据显示：2025年，美元指数跌到98，三年最低，美国国债日子也不好过，全球抛售潮来了，10年期美债的实际利率滑到-1.3%。 华尔街嘴上不认输，可连中国的保险资金都开始买黄金 ...