1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - level shows that the Ministry of Finance will implement a more proactive fiscal policy, and Shenzhen has adjusted real - estate policies in three aspects: relaxing purchase restrictions, loosening corporate home - buying, and optimizing credit [1][4][10] - In terms of fundamentals, last week's industrial data was average. Steel production decreased, hot - rolled coil apparent demand rebounded, but rebar apparent demand declined. The peak - season demand expectation was hard to fulfill, and rebar inventory continued to accumulate. With good steel - mill resumption, strong raw - material support, limited peak - season demand recovery, and weak spot prices, steel futures prices are expected to fluctuate [1][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Trading Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Rebar | 3127 | - 16 | - 0.51 | 9051013 | 3329767 | Yuan/ton | | SHFE Hot - Rolled Coil | 3364 | 24 | 0.72 | 2667967 | 1323310 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Iron Ore | 799.5 | 10.0 | 1.27 | 1727027 | 538976 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coking Coal | 1144.5 | - 14.0 | - 1.21 | 6923190 | 910688 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coke | 1625.5 | - 21.0 | - 1.28 | 130356 | 52840 | Yuan/ton | [2] 3.2 Market Review - Last week, steel futures fluctuated slightly down. From Monday to Thursday, prices dropped due to poor demand recovery, and on Friday, policy expectations increased, warming market sentiment and pushing up steel prices. In the spot market, the price of Tangshan billet was 3010 (+20) Yuan/ton, Shanghai rebar was quoted at 3220 (-20) Yuan/ton, and Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3400 (+20) Yuan/ton [4] 3.3 Industry News - In August, China's steel exports were 9.51 million tons, a decrease of 326,000 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month decline of 3.3%. From January to August, cumulative steel exports were 77.49 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10% [6][7] - The preliminary value of the change in the US non - farm employment benchmark in 2025 was - 911,000, expected to be - 700,000, and the previous value was - 598,000 [10] - China's PPI in August decreased by 2.9% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, and the month - on - month change turned from a 0.2% decrease to flat. China's CPI in August decreased by 0.4% year - on - year, with a flat month - on - month change [10] - In August, automobile production and sales in China were 2.815 million and 2.857 million respectively, a month - on - month increase of 8.7% and 10.1%, and a year - on - year increase of 13% and 16.4% [10] - On September 5th, Shenzhen adjusted real - estate policies in three aspects: relaxing purchase restrictions, loosening corporate home - buying, and optimizing credit [1][4][10] - On September 14th, China and the US held talks on economic and trade issues in Madrid, Spain [10] 3.4 Relevant Charts - The report includes 20 charts showing the trends of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures, basis, spot price differences, steel - mill profits, blast - furnace operating rates, production, inventory, and apparent consumption [9][11][18] etc.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - China's financial aggregates are large, and future monetary policy should focus on optimizing the structure while maintaining reasonable aggregate growth [2][18]. - China's fiscal policy still has sufficient room for maneuver, with a special treasury bond issuance expected to leverage significant credit [3][19]. - The Fed is expected to cut interest rates, but the policy path after September remains uncertain [4][5]. - Industrial product prices are unlikely to rebound sustainably, and PPI may decline again after the fourth quarter [33]. - The domestic bond market is expected to be highly volatile in August - September, and the RMB exchange rate is expected to be moderately strong [34]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Data Overview - GDP growth in Q2 2025 was 5.2% year - on - year, slightly lower than the previous quarter [1]. - In August 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, and the non - manufacturing PMI for business activities was 50.3% [1]. - Social financing and credit in August 2025 showed significant changes, with an increase in M1 growth and a narrowing M1 - M2 gap [1][2][18]. - CPI in August 2025 was - 0.4% year - on - year, and PPI was - 2.9% year - on - year [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - China's financial aggregates are large, and future monetary policy will focus on structural optimization [2][18]. - China - US economic and trade talks will discuss issues such as tariffs and TikTok [2]. - China's fiscal policy has sufficient room, with a special treasury bond issuance to leverage credit [3][19]. - The Fed is expected to cut interest rates, but the post - September policy path is uncertain [4][5]. 3.2.2 Metals - Gold and silver prices reached new highs, and Thai gold exports to Cambodia increased [6]. - Metal inventories in the LME showed significant changes, with some increasing and some decreasing [7]. 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - A second round of coke price cuts is planned, and coal prices have fallen [9]. - Indonesia's seizure of a nickel mine has raised supply concerns [9]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - China's new LNG device was delivered, and international oil prices rebounded due to supply concerns [10]. - The EU may reduce its dependence on Russian natural gas [10]. - The US natural gas net long position increased, and the WTI crude oil net long position decreased [12]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - China's summer grain purchase was progressing smoothly, and US coffee prices rose [13]. - Most agricultural product prices in China declined, and Pakistan plans to purchase sugar [13][14]. - Speculators' net short positions in US soybeans and corn increased [14]. 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - The central bank adjusted the evaluation method for primary dealers in open - market operations and carried out reverse repurchase operations [16]. - The central bank will conduct a large - scale term reverse repurchase operation to maintain liquidity [16]. - There are large - scale reverse repurchase and treasury cash deposits maturing this week [17]. 3.3.2 Important News - China - US economic and trade talks were held in Spain [18]. - China's financial data showed strong support for the real economy, and there was a shift in household deposits [18][19]. - China's fiscal policy has sufficient room, and debt - related issues are being addressed [19][20]. - China opposes US export control measures and launches investigations [21][22][23]. - Policies to promote private investment and industry stability are being introduced [23][24]. - The real estate industry is in the stage of risk clearance, and banks have adjusted mortgage policies [25]. - Brokerage bond issuance reached a new high, and there were bond - related events and credit rating changes [26][27]. 3.3.3 Bond Market Summary - The inter - bank bond market showed a differentiated trend, with long - term bonds recovering [28]. - The exchange bond market had mixed performances, and convertible bond indices rose [28][29]. - Interest rates in the money market and bond issuance yields showed various changes [29][30][31]. - European and US bond yields generally increased [31]. 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose, and the US dollar index showed a slight increase [32]. 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - Industrial product prices are unlikely to rebound sustainably, and PPI may decline again [33]. - The domestic bond market will be volatile, and the RMB exchange rate is expected to be moderately strong [34]. - The market is in a complex situation with different signals from prices [34]. 3.3.6 Today's Reminders - A large number of bonds will be listed, issued, paid, and redeemed on September 15 [35]. 3.4 Stock Market News - The Beijing Stock Exchange will switch stock codes for listed companies [36]. - The pattern of the public fund market has changed, with growth in the bond - holding scale of some institutions [36][37].

前期推出的以旧换新政策取得较好成效，8月份个人消费需求的内生增长叠加以旧换新等促消费政策的 推动，消费需求得到进一步释放。另外，北京、上海、深圳等城市相继出台一揽子房地产调控政策，包 括放松非核心区域限购要求、调整个人住房信贷政策等，更好满足了居民刚性和多样化改善性住房需 求。 近期，育儿补贴政策、个人消费贷款和服务业经营主体贷款贴息政策陆续出台，中国人民银行还新设立 了服务消费和养老再贷款工具等，这些举措都有助于提振消费信心，挖掘有效消费需求。同时，供给端 也在不断提升行业治理水平，近期有关部门对新能源汽车、光伏等重点行业非理性竞争问题的整治，也 有利于促进供求平衡，推动物价水平回稳。 未来，宏观政策将继续保持连续性和稳定性，适度宽松的货币政策保持对实体经济较强的支持力度，财 政政策也会积极发力，综合施策推动经济进一步回升向好。中长期来看，我国经济结构转型和产业升级 稳步推进，实体经济供求关系有望更加均衡，经济循环也将更加顺畅。 从更长远的角度来看，宏观政策要进一步聚焦深层次矛盾，推进关键领域改革，如加强社会保障、健全 政府债务管理、优化税收制度等，这些改革措施不仅有助于经济长期行稳致远，而且可以更好地发挥 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of TL2512 is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is weakly oscillatory, with an overall oscillatory view due to the existence of long - term interest rate cut expectations but a low possibility of short - term comprehensive interest rate cuts [1] - The intraday view of financial futures index stock sectors (TL, T, TF, TS) is weakly oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is oscillatory. In the short term, treasury bond futures will mainly conduct low - level oscillatory consolidation [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Index Stock Sector - For TL2512, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are based on the situation that long - term interest rate cut expectations still exist while the possibility of short - term comprehensive interest rate cuts is low [1] Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Index Stock Sector - Last Friday, treasury bond futures showed a differentiated trend. 2 - year treasury bond futures oscillated and slightly declined, while 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures oscillated and rose [5] - Treasury bond futures are mainly affected by monetary policy expectations and the risk appetite of the stock market [5] - In the long run, there are still expectations of interest rate cuts, but in the short term, the upward momentum of treasury bond futures is not strong because the necessity of comprehensive interest rate cuts is not high [5] - The inflation data in August was still weak. The policy side will continue to introduce policies to stabilize demand to promote a moderate rebound in inflation. It is expected that fiscal policies will be intensified in the fourth quarter, which will pose supply - side pressure on treasury bonds [5] - The risk appetite of the stock market is at a high level, siphoning bond - buying funds and suppressing the demand side of treasury bonds, showing the stock - bond seesaw effect [5]

Group 1 - A-shares opened positively on September 15, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.14% and the ChiNext Index increasing by 1.05% [1] - The A500 ETF (512050), which tracks the CSI A500 Index, saw a fund inflow of over 300 million yuan in the last two trading days, with 288 million yuan on September 11 and 3.088 million yuan on September 12 [1] - The Chinese government maintains a reasonable debt ratio of 68.7%, with total government debt projected to reach 92.6 trillion yuan by the end of 2024, including 34.6 trillion yuan in national bonds and 47.5 trillion yuan in local government legal debts [1] Group 2 - The A500 ETF (512050) enables investors to easily allocate to core A-share assets, employing a dual strategy of industry-balanced allocation and leading company selection [2] - The ETF covers all 35 sub-sectors of the CSI A500 Index, integrating both value and growth attributes, and is overweight in sectors such as AI, pharmaceuticals, and renewable energy compared to the CSI 300 Index [2]

Core Viewpoint - The financial data for August indicates a robust support from the financial sector to the real economy, with significant increases in social financing and loans, driven by proactive fiscal policies and moderate monetary easing [1][10]. Social Financing - The cumulative increase in social financing for the first eight months of the year reached 26.56 trillion yuan, which is 4.66 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [1]. - In August, new RMB loans amounted to 590 billion yuan, contributing to a total increase of 13.46 trillion yuan in loans for the first eight months [1]. Personal Loans - Household loans increased by 711 billion yuan in the first eight months, with August seeing a rise of 30.3 billion yuan, although this was a year-on-year decrease of 159.7 billion yuan [1][2]. - The growth in personal loans was supported by the summer consumption peak and new housing policies, with short-term consumer loans showing a month-on-month increase of 393.2 billion yuan [2][3]. Corporate Loans - Corporate loans increased by 590 billion yuan in August, a year-on-year decrease of 250 billion yuan but a month-on-month increase of 530 billion yuan [4]. - Short-term corporate loans saw a significant rise, increasing by 70 billion yuan, while medium to long-term loans remained stable with an increase of 470 billion yuan [4][5]. Loan Structure - The balance of various loans reached 269.10 trillion yuan by the end of August, with a year-on-year growth of 6.8% [7]. - Inclusive small and micro loans grew by 11.8%, and medium to long-term loans for the manufacturing sector increased by 8.6%, both outpacing overall loan growth [7][8]. Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI rose by 0.1 percentage points to 49.4%, indicating a slight acceleration in production expansion [9]. - The non-manufacturing business activity index also showed expansion, reflecting a stable economic environment [9][10]. Future Outlook - The macroeconomic policies are expected to maintain continuity and stability, with a focus on supporting the real economy through moderate monetary policy and active fiscal measures [10].

Core Viewpoint - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period has seen significant growth in China's fiscal strength, with a focus on enhancing public welfare and supporting economic development through increased budget allocations and proactive fiscal policies [2][5][7]. Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure - National general public budget revenue is expected to reach 106 trillion yuan, an increase of 17 trillion yuan or approximately 19% compared to the "13th Five-Year Plan" period [1]. - National general public budget expenditure is projected to exceed 136 trillion yuan, marking an increase of 26 trillion yuan or 24% compared to the previous five-year period [1]. Investment in Public Welfare - During the "14th Five-Year Plan," significant investments have been made in key areas such as education (20.5 trillion yuan), social security and employment (19.6 trillion yuan), health care (10.6 trillion yuan), and housing security (4 trillion yuan), totaling nearly 100 trillion yuan in fiscal welfare spending [1][6]. Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth - The fiscal policy has maintained an active orientation, focusing on expanding domestic demand, improving people's livelihoods, and supporting technological innovation [5][7]. - The deficit ratio has increased from 2.7% to 3.8%, with a further rise to 4% in 2023, indicating a proactive fiscal stance [5]. Debt Management and Risk Mitigation - A comprehensive debt management strategy has been implemented, including a total of 12 trillion yuan in measures to address hidden local government debt, with significant reductions in the scale of such debts [10][11]. - By the end of 2024, the total government debt is projected to be 92.6 trillion yuan, with a government debt ratio of 68.7%, which is considered manageable compared to G20 and G7 averages [11]. Future Outlook - The government aims to establish a robust debt management mechanism aligned with high-quality development, ensuring sustainable fiscal practices and enhancing transparency in debt management [12][13].

记者丨周潇枭 编辑丨包芳鸣 9月12日，国新办举行新闻发布会，邀请财政部部长蓝佛安，以及财政部副部长廖岷、副部长王东伟、副部长郭婷婷，介绍"十四 五"时期财政改革发展成效，并答记者问。 "十四五"时期，全国一般公共预算收入预计达到106万亿元，比"十三五"时期增加17万亿元，增长约19%；全国一般公共预算支出预 计超过136万亿元，比"十三五"时期增加26万亿元，增长24%。 五年里，大量"真金白银"投向了发展大事和民生实事。"十四五"时期， 全国一般公共预算安排教育支出20.5万亿元，社会保障和就 业支出19.6万亿元，卫生健康支出10.6万亿元，住房保障支出4万亿元，加上其他领域支出，财政民生投入近100万亿元。 今年，国 家财政安排1000亿元发放育儿补贴、200亿元逐步推行免费学前教育，积极回应人民群众关切。 截至2025年8月底，国家财政一共拿出约4200亿元，大力支持消费品以旧换新，带动各类商品销售额超2.9万亿元。近两年，安排超 长期特别国债1.5万亿元，推进"两重"建设。五年来，共安排地方政府专项债券19.4万亿元，支持建设项目15万个；安排中央预算内 投资3.33万亿元，支持水利、交通等基础 ...

点击小程序查看报告原文 资料来源：Wind，中金公司研究部 8月新增社融增速下行，货币增速上升幅度放缓。 8月新增社融2.57万亿元，同比少增4630亿元，存量社融增速从7月的9.0%下降到8.8%，这也 是社融同比增速自2024年11月以来第一次出现下行（图表1）。货币供应方面，8月M2同比增速为8.8%，持平于7月，终止了连续4个月的改善 势头（图表2）。8月M1同比增速从7月的5.6%上升到6.0%（图表3），延续上升势头，但同比增速的增加幅度明显放缓。 图表1：8月社融同比增速下行，这是自2024年10月后首次 信贷需求总体仍然偏弱，贷款利率低位震荡。 8月新增企业短期贷款700亿元，在去年低基数影响下同比多增2600亿元，企业中长期贷款、居 民短期贷款、居民中长期贷款分别同比少增200亿元、611亿元、1000亿元，反映整体信贷需求仍然较弱（图表4）。个人住房贷款利率持平于 3.1%的历史低位（图表5），企业贷款利率小幅下降0.1个百分点至3.1%（图表6）。 图表4：8月社融主要分项新增额的同比变化 资料来源：Wind，中金公司研究部 图表3：8月M1同比增速升至6.0%，但增速上升势头放缓 资料 ...

Group 1: Open Market Operations - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation on September 12, with a fixed rate and a total amount of 230 billion yuan, at an interest rate of 1.40% [1] - The total amount of reverse repos maturing on the same day was 188.3 billion yuan, resulting in a net injection of 41.7 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Funding Conditions - The overnight repurchase weighted average rate for deposit institutions slightly decreased by less than 1 basis point, remaining at 1.35% [3] - Non-bank institutions borrowed overnight funds using certificates of deposit and credit bonds as collateral, with rates dropping to around 1.40% [3] - The latest overnight financing rate in the US was reported at 4.39% [3] Group 3: Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction rate for one-year interbank certificates of deposit in the secondary market was approximately 1.6764% [7] Group 4: Treasury Futures Closing - The 30-year main contract rose by 0.38%, while the 10-year main contract increased by 0.06% [13] - The 5-year main contract saw a slight increase of 0.01%, whereas the 2-year main contract fell by 0.03% [13] Group 5: Fiscal Policy and Economic Indicators - The Minister of Finance announced that the general public budget expenditure is expected to exceed 136 trillion yuan over the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, an increase of 24% compared to the previous plan [14] - The central bank reported that the social financing scale increased by 26.56 trillion yuan in the first eight months of 2025, which is 4.66 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [15] - The broad money (M2) balance reached 331.98 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.8% [15] Group 6: Global Macro - The European Central Bank decided to maintain its current policy, indicating that inflation pressures have been effectively contained and the Eurozone economy remains stable [17] Group 7: Bond Market Events - Recent negative events in the bond market include significant lawsuits and downgrades in implied ratings for various companies, such as Suning and Zhonghai [19]