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Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the stock index, although there is uncertainty at the end of the year due to some funds cashing in profits, the long - term view is to go long on dips as the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged [4]. - For treasury bonds, in the short - term, the bond market is expected to fluctuate under the background of weak domestic demand and institutional behavior disturbances, and a quick - in - quick - out strategy is suitable [7]. - For precious metals, they are in an accelerating upward phase, but may face short - term corrections in January next year. It is recommended to wait and see [8]. - For non - ferrous metals, different metals have different supply - demand situations and price trends. For example, copper and aluminum have relatively strong price support, while zinc and lead may be affected by the departure of long positions [11][13]. - For black building materials, steel prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom, and the iron ore price is expected to run within the oscillation range [31][34]. - For energy chemicals, the strategies for different products vary. For example, for crude oil, a low - buy - high - sell strategy is maintained with short - term waiting and seeing [52]. - For agricultural products, different products also have different price trends and trading strategies. For example, for live pigs, a strategy of short - term long and long - term short is recommended [75]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Financial Stock Index - **Market Information**: The State Administration for Market Regulation deployed key tasks for 2026, including anti - monopoly work; from January to November, the operating income of state - owned enterprises increased by 1.0% year - on - year, and the total profit decreased by 3.1% year - on - year; tobacco advertising and business promotion expenses of tobacco enterprises cannot be deducted; the auction electricity price of the largest power grid operator in the United States may double [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although there is uncertainty at the end of the year, the long - term view is to go long on dips as policy support remains unchanged [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: On Monday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS all declined. From January to November, the operating income of state - owned enterprises increased by 1.0% year - on - year, and the total profit decreased by 3.1% year - on - year. The National Development and Reform Commission held a private enterprise symposium [5]. - **Liquidity**: The central bank conducted a 4823 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation on Monday, with a net investment of 4150 billion yuan [6]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The bond market is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and a quick - in - quick - out strategy is suitable [7]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Shanghai gold and silver prices fell. Trump's remarks on the Fed and the selection of the new Fed chair have an impact on market expectations, and international silver prices hit a new high [8]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Precious metals may face short - term corrections in January next year, and it is recommended to wait and see [8]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: After the sharp adjustment of precious metals, copper prices rose and then fell sharply. LME copper inventory decreased, and domestic social inventory increased [10]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of copper mines is tight, and the price support is strong. The reference range for the Shanghai copper main contract is 95,500 - 99,000 yuan/ton [11]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: After the sharp adjustment of precious metals, aluminum prices rose and then fell. Domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories increased, and LME aluminum inventory decreased [12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price support is strong. The reference range for the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 22,200 - 22,600 yuan/ton [13]. Zinc - **Market Information**: The Shanghai zinc index rose slightly. LME zinc inventory and domestic social inventory decreased [14]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The zinc industry's fundamentals are weak, and the departure of long positions may impact prices [15]. Lead - **Market Information**: The Shanghai lead index fell slightly. LME lead inventory increased, and domestic social inventory increased slightly [16]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - demand of lead is weak, and the departure of long positions may impact prices [16]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices rose and then fell. The price of nickel ore was stable, and the price of nickel iron rose [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The excess pressure of nickel is still large, but the short - term bottom may have appeared. It is recommended to wait and see [17]. Tin - **Market Information**: The Shanghai tin main contract price fell. The supply of tin ore was tight, and the demand was weak. The inventory increased [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 300,000 - 350,000 yuan/ton [19]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The spot and futures prices of lithium carbonate fell. The contract decreased its position significantly [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to wait and see or try light - position call options. The reference range for the 2605 contract is 112,100 - 122,500 yuan/ton [21]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina index fell. The spot price was at a discount, and the futures inventory decreased [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2602 is 2400 - 2900 yuan/ton [24]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless steel main contract price fell. The spot price was stable, and the inventory decreased [25]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to go long on dips and pay attention to policy implementation [25]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of the casting aluminum alloy main contract rose. The inventory decreased [26]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term [28]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures rose slightly. The inventory of rebar decreased, and the inventory of hot - rolled coil decreased [30]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Steel prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom, and the winter storage willingness is weak [31]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The iron ore main contract price rose. The spot price was at a premium, and the inventory increased [32]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The iron ore price is expected to run within the oscillation range, and attention should be paid to market sentiment [34]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Market Information**: The glass main contract price rose. The inventory increased, and the trading volume decreased [35]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The glass market is expected to be weak in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see [35]. - **Soda Ash** - **Market Information**: The soda ash main contract price rose. The inventory decreased, and the trading volume decreased [36]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - demand contradiction of soda ash has not been significantly alleviated, and the market rebound is limited [36]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon futures rose slightly. The spot prices were at a premium [37]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The future market trend is affected by the black sector and cost factors. Attention should be paid to manganese ore and "dual - carbon" policies [39]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon** - **Market Information**: The industrial silicon futures main contract price fell. The spot price was stable, and the inventory increased [40]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price is expected to fluctuate with the market, and attention should be paid to new supply disturbances in the northwest [41]. - **Polysilicon** - **Market Information**: The polysilicon futures main contract price fell. The spot price was stable, and the inventory decreased [42]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Under strong supervision, the futures price is expected to oscillate weakly, and attention should be paid to spot transactions [44]. Energy Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices fluctuated weakly. The tire start - up rate was slightly worse, and the inventory increased [46]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to wait and see and partially close the hedging position [50]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The INE main crude oil futures price fell. The inventories of refined oil products had different changes [51]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: A low - buy - high - sell strategy is maintained, and short - term waiting and seeing are recommended [52]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices of methanol fell, and the main futures contract price was stable [53]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The methanol market is expected to be sorted out at a low level, and it is recommended to wait and see [54]. Urea - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices of urea were stable, and the main futures contract price was stable [55]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The urea market is expected to build a bottom in an oscillating manner, and it is recommended to go long on dips [56]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The pure benzene spot and futures prices were stable, and the styrene spot price rose while the futures price fell [57]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter of next year [58]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract price fell. The supply was strong, and the demand was weak [59]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to go short on rallies in the medium - term [61]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract price fell. The supply was high, and the demand was weak [62]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - demand pattern needs to be improved by increasing production cuts, and the valuation needs to be compressed in the medium - term [63]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract price fell. The supply was high, and the demand was weak. The inventory decreased [64]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: PTA is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory accumulation stage after short - term de - stocking. Pay attention to the callback risk in the short - term and the opportunity to go long on dips in the medium - term [66]. p - Xylene - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract price fell. The supply was high, and the demand was weak. The inventory increased [67]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: PX is expected to maintain a small inventory accumulation pattern before the maintenance season. Pay attention to the callback risk in the short - term and the opportunity to go long on dips in the medium - term [68]. Polyethylene PE - **Market Information**: The PE futures price fell, and the spot price rose. The supply was stable, and the demand was weak [69]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [70]. Polypropylene PP - **Market Information**: The PP futures price fell, and the spot price was stable. The supply was stable, and the demand was weak [71]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PP price may bottom out in the first quarter of next year [72]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Information**: The domestic pig price mainly rose. The supply and demand were in a complex state [74]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The spot price may be strong in the short - term, and it is recommended to short after the near - month rebound [75]. Eggs - **Market Information**: The national egg price was mainly stable. The supply was sufficient, and the demand was weak [76]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to short on rallies in the near - term and pay attention to the long - term pressure [78]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The CBOT soybean price fell. The domestic soybean and meal inventories were large, and the demand was weak [79]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The soybean meal price is expected to oscillate [80]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The Malaysian palm oil production and export data changed. The domestic palm oil inventory was high, and the rapeseed oil inventory decreased [81]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to observe high - frequency data and conduct short - term operations [83]. Sugar - **Market Information**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price fell. The domestic and international sugar production and import data changed [84]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The international sugar price may rebound after February next year, and the domestic sugar price may continue to rebound in the short - term [86]. Cotton - **Market Information**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price fell. The domestic cotton production increased, and the import was restricted [87]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to wait for a callback and then go long [89].

中信证券研报称，2026年财政政策定调为"更加积极的财政政策"。财政支出预计继续保持扩张力度，一 方面，继续向"新基建"、科技创新、 绿色低碳等新动能领域倾斜；另一方面，基本民生服务等领域的 支出也将加大，以增进民生福祉和直接刺激消费需求。同时，地方政府存量债务风险受到高度关注。在 控制债务风险的约束下，财政政策在"扩支出"与"防风险"之间求平衡。预计2026年货币政策基调延 续"适度宽松"，并强调灵活运用多种工具以降低社会融资成本。预计2026年中国人民 银行将在总量工 具上保持适度宽松取向，降准降息仍存空间。 ...

——2026 年宏观经济展望 着力扩大内需，宏观政策延续稳增长取向 关注东方金诚公众号 获取更多研究报告 核心观点 ·· 作者 美国高关税对全球贸易和我国出口的冲击将在 2026 年进一步显现。 东方金诚 研究发展部 首席宏观分析师 王青 2026 年需要切实促进房地产市场止跌回稳，并以此提振消费和投资信 心，扭转物价水平偏低的局面。当前的关键是将偏高的实际房贷利率 降下来。 执行总监 冯琳 2026 年三大政策基调保持不变，着力扩大内需成为稳增长的主要发力 点，继续推动新旧动能转换。 时间 2025 年 12 月 30 日 更加积极的财政政策将体现为"一平三升"，预计目标财政赤字率将保 持不变，新增专项债规模将增加至 5.0 万亿，超长期特别国债发行规 模将增加到 1.8 万亿，政策性金融工具额度也有望增加；下半年也可 能进一步加发政府债券。 2026 年降息幅度有望达到 0.3 个百分点，数量型宽松政策工具丰富， 结构性货币政策将"加量降价"，聚焦五篇大文章，新增信贷、新增社 融都有望同比多增。不过，货币政策仍会坚持不搞"大水漫灌"，不会 实施大幅降息及大规模数量型宽松。 2026 年 GDP 实际同比增 ...

Group 1 - The central economic work conference emphasizes the continuation of a moderately loose monetary policy to promote stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery [1] - The monetary policy will utilize various tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions, while ensuring ample liquidity and effective transmission of monetary policy [1] - The expectation for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts has increased, but significant downward pressure on the interest rate center is unlikely due to the alignment with fiscal debt issuance [1] Group 2 - In 2025, China's economy is expected to show steady progress, with marginal improvements in prices and supply-demand relationships in certain industries [2] - The manufacturing sector is highlighted by improved conditions for small and medium-sized enterprises in foreign trade, as well as high growth rates in industrial added value and profits in sectors like electronics, automotive, and transportation equipment [2] - The global liquidity remains loose, and the logic of global capital reallocation has not changed, indicating that the bond market is under pressure, while the supportive stance of monetary policy limits the upward space for interest rates [2]

固收-年度展望专题汇报 20251208 摘要 近期债市调整受交易情绪和机构行为影响，非基本面或流动性压力。公 募基金避险，银行自营配置，大型银行重购超长端债券，认可配置价值。 未来银行和保险公司对 30 年期国债的介入预计增加。 当前 30 年期国债具备配置价值，绝对位置和利差位置均相对到位，银 行自营已开始介入。30 年国债税后收益与房贷税后收益大致持平，显示 较高配置价值。 30-10 年期国债利差已从历史低位上行至约 40BP，但居民杠杆率和地 产周期未明显好转，利差上行空间有限，预计不会显著走陡，当前水平 较为合理。 超长期限国债供给将继续增加，但增量不会显著超前两年。需求端存在 不确定性，但机构仍能消化大量供应，整体压力可控，不会显著恶化。 预计 2026 年财政政策将继续发力，供给端有超常规增量，但需求端不 确定性较大。长期来看，10 年以上国债和地方债存量占比提升，需求端 仍需观察，预计货币政策将保持宽松。 Q&A 近期市场表现及其背后的主要因素是什么？ 近期市场，尤其是上周的市场，最突出的变化是超长端利率债的调整幅度超出 预期。主要原因在于市场情绪的集中冲击和机构行为层面的互动。尽管消息面 ...

【宏观快评】 来年工作有何新部署？——政策周观察第 61 期 证 券 研 究 报 告 ❖ 时值年末，各方就来年各方面工作做出部署，要点如下： 1、重要事件：中纪委全会及两会时间确定。12 月 25 日，中共中央政治局召 开会议，会议同意明年 1 月 12 日至 14 日召开二十届中央纪律检查委员会第五 次全体会议。12 月 27 日，十四届全国人大常委会第十九次会议表决通过了关 于召开十四届全国人大四次会议的决定。根据决定，十四届全国人大四次会议 于 2026 年 3 月 5 日在北京召开。 2、财政：1）政策基调：12 月 27 日，全国财政工作会议召开，提出：一是扩 大财政支出盘子，确保必要支出力度（去年为"提高财政赤字率，加大支出 强度、加快支出进度"）。二是优化政府债券工具组合，更好发挥债券效益（去 年为"安排更大规模政府债券"）……五是加强财政金融协同，放大政策效能。 2）债务分配：12 月 24 日，全国人民代表大会常务委员会预算工作委员会关 于 2025 年财政预算事项备案审查工作情况的报告提出，"提出新增专项债额度 进一步向项目准备充分、投资效率较高、资金使用效益好的地区倾斜，用于 支持地方政 ...

2025 年 12 月 29 日 宏观经济 开局之年，周期向何处去 ——2026 年宏观经济展望 宏观深度研究 主要观点： 外部环境： 预计 2026 年美国经济短周期仍处于扩张阶段，再通胀概率较大。受减 税、加大投资、关税干扰减弱、降息等因素影响，经济增速 2.5%左右，高 于潜在增速，产出缺口继续扩张，美联储至多降息一次，不排除出现加息 预期。 通胀是美国选民最关注的议题之一，中期选举之前中美经贸关系将暂 时保持稳定。但是，美国可能采取多项措施打击转口贸易，同时中国和欧 盟等经济体的经贸冲突风险可能增加。 风险提示：财政、货币政策低于预期；"两重""两新"边际效应递减，效 果低于预期；房地产市场止跌回稳难度较大；美国通胀存在大幅上升风险； 地缘政治波动加剧。 邢曙光（分析师） xingshuguang@cctgsc.com.cn 登记编号：S0280520050003 钟 山（分析师） zhongshan01@cctgsc.com.cn 登记编号：S0280525060002 相关报告 中国政策： 宏观政策强调提质增效，托底经济的同时，不搞大水漫灌、大规模刺 激，为应对未来风险留有余地，确保政策可持续。预 ...

| | | 集运指数（欧线）期货日报 2025/12/29 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 数据指标 最新 | 最新 | 环比 | | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | EC主力收盘价 15.8↑ EC次主力收盘价 | 1822.900 | | 1169.9 | +16.50↑ | | 期货盘面 | EC2602-EC2604价差 -16.70↓ EC2602-EC2606价差 | 653.00 | | 448.90 | -59.40↓ | | | EC合约基差 | -80.26 | +155.04↑ | | | | 期货持仓头寸（手） EC主力持仓量 | | 30437 | -1412↓ | | | | | SCFIS（欧线）（周） 153.44↑ SCFIS（美西线）（周） SCFI（综合指数）（周） 103.40↑ 集装箱船运力（万标准箱） | 1742.64 1656.32 | | 1,301.41 1,227.97 | 339.31↑ 0.00↑ | | 现货价格 | CCFI（综合指数）（周） 21.94↑ CCFI（欧线）（周） | 114 ...

| | | 沪锌产业日报 2025-12-29 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪锌主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 23255 | 85 02-03月合约价差:沪锌(日,元/吨) | -30 | 15 | | | LME三个月锌报价(日,美元/吨) | 3086.5 | -10 沪锌总持仓量(日,手) | 197429 | -2988 | | | 沪锌前20名净持仓(日,手) | 1795 | 2441 沪锌仓单(日,吨) | 0 | 0 | | | 上期所库存(周,吨) | 72963 | -3054 LME库存(日,吨) | 106875 | 7900 | | 现货市场 | 上海有色网0#锌现货价(日,元/吨) | 23440 | 240 长江有色市场1#锌现货价(日,元/吨) | 23490 | 260 | | | ZN主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | 185 | 155 LME锌升贴水(0-3)(日,美元/吨) | -28.26 | 0.88 | | | 昆明 ...