Core Insights - The Greek National Bank's report highlights the increasing severity of international trade conditions due to U.S. tariff measures, which pose risks not only to bilateral trade but also to the overall export structure and macroeconomic impact of Greece [1][2] Export Structure and Market Dynamics - Greece's export structure is characterized by high uncertainty, with approximately 60% of exports traditionally directed towards Western Europe and the Balkans, which have shown poor economic performance over the past year and a half [1] - Eastern Europe and the Middle East have provided stable support for Greek exports, accounting for about 75% of export growth [1] - The U.S. market, while not a traditional major market for Greece, is projected to increase its share of Greek exports from 4.5% in 2019 to 5.3% by 2024, contributing 7% to export growth during the same period [1] Impact of U.S. Tariffs - The U.S. government's recent tariff measures are expected to alter the positive outlook for Greek exports, as the U.S. absorbs about 20% of EU exports, indirectly affecting Greece's main trading partners like Germany and Italy [2] - The concentration of Greek exports to the U.S. is primarily in the food sector, with significant exports of high-value products such as olives and olive oil, which have reached €1 billion over the past six years [3] - Tariffs will likely harm Greece's price competitiveness in the North American market, forcing exporters to reduce profit margins, cut export volumes, or seek more expensive alternative markets [3] Economic Challenges - Key issues facing the Greek economy include insufficient investment, low productivity, weak international competitiveness, and a high current account deficit, exacerbated by past debt crises and fiscal austerity [4] - The structural weaknesses of the Greek economy are expected to be magnified by U.S. tariffs, complicating the recovery process [4] - The Greek government aims to avoid escalating trade tensions with the U.S. and seeks to align with EU positions, potentially requesting tariff exemptions for certain non-U.S. produced agricultural products [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In May, finished steel products may face pressure, potentially forcing steel mills to cut production, with a high probability of molten iron production reaching its peak. Without clear administrative production restrictions, production cuts require further compression of steel mill profits to ease supply pressure. The unilateral drive of finished steel products may continue downward, but the absolute prices are not low, so the risk of chasing short positions is relatively high. It is recommended to focus on short - profit positions [2][62] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Supply - In April, although there were many expectations of steel mill production restrictions, no definite documents were issued. Steel mills maintained good profits, with the profitability rate of steel enterprises around 60%, higher than in 2024. In the traditional peak demand season of April, steel products were destocked, and steel mills had little inventory pressure, so they had little willingness to cut production actively. In the first quarter, the crude steel output increased by 0.6% year - on - year. In April, the output of the five major steel products increased by 2.04% month - on - month and 1.30% year - on - year, and the daily average molten iron output was 2.45 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.5%. It is expected that the crude steel output in April will increase by about 4% year - on - year. In May, due to better profits than in 2024 and seasonal factors, supply is expected to increase further [3][9] Demand - In April, the apparent demand for the five major steel products continued to improve, with an average of 933310 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.8% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.5%, and the year - on - year decline rate was narrowing. The decrease was mainly due to the building materials sector. The average apparent demand for rebar in April was 265570 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.01%. The demand for plates was good. In the first week of May, the data decreased significantly month - on - month, but it is expected to be related to holidays and pre - holiday stockpiling, and the demand was relatively stable on a two - week average. The manufacturing industry performed well in the first quarter, with manufacturing investment from January to March increasing by 9.1% year - on - year. Benefiting from policies, the steel demand in the automotive, home appliance, and machinery manufacturing industries increased. In April, the high - frequency data showed that the demand for automobiles and home appliances was still strong, and the growth rate accelerated. However, the manufacturing PMI in April was 49%, down 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, and the new export order index was 44.7%, down 4.3 percentage points from the previous month. The real estate sector still dragged down steel demand, but some data improved. The infrastructure demand was better than in 2024, and the direct export in the first half of the year is expected to maintain growth [10][13][24] Inventory - In April, the destocking speed of rebar accelerated, with a weekly destocking of about 50000 tons at the end of the month, basically the same as in 2024, and the inventory at the end of the month was only 653630 tons. In May, rebar faces the pressure of slower destocking, and enterprises are actively destocking. Hot - rolled coils have strong supply and demand and have been destocking since March, with inventory significantly lower than in 2024. However, the supply pressure of cold - rolled coils is high, and there was basically no destocking in April, and the price difference between hot - rolled and cold - rolled coils narrowed. Plates still face inventory pressure [41] Raw Materials - In addition to export factors, the weakness of raw materials is an important factor in the decline of steel prices, mainly coking coal. High supply and high upstream inventory are the main reasons for the price decline. Currently, the 09 contract has fallen below 900, and there are expectations of a decline in domestic and some imported coal supplies. The core factor for price fluctuations is demand. Coke mainly follows coking coal. The capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises is low, and the total inventory is higher than in 2024. After the first price increase, whether another increase can be implemented is driven by the price of finished steel products. In the first quarter, the global iron ore shipment decreased by about 8 million tons year - on - year, and there was no year - on - year increase in April. Considering the high molten iron production, the pressure of iron ore inventory accumulation in the second quarter is not large, and the 09 contract is deeply discounted against the spot, which also supports the futures price. Overall, raw material supply is not the main problem, and the price decline in April was mainly due to poor steel demand expectations, and the core driver in May is still expected to be demand [45]

2025年5月，94岁的投资传奇沃伦·巴菲特在伯克希尔股东大会上，完成了他人生中可能是最后一次的"投资圣经"演讲。在这场持续6小时的"思想盛宴"中， 不仅揭晓了3700亿美元现金的配置蓝图，更道破了穿越经济周期的生存哲学。 本期特别提炼出10个与投资者相关的核心启示，带您一睹为快。 "美国靠自由贸易崛起，不该用贸易战拆毁"，面对特朗普可能推行的新关税政策，巴菲特用历史数据敲响警钟：1820年美国GDP仅占全球1.8%，通过自由 贸易到2024年占比24%。 这位见证过12任总统更迭的老人提醒：任何短视的贸易保护，都是对自由市场根基的动摇，终将反噬自身繁荣。 伯克希尔持有的五大商社（三菱/三井/伊藤忠/住友/丸红）已成全球投资范本：2020年建仓成本200亿美元，当前市值超260亿，年收股息约8亿美元。巴菲 特罕见透露：当年恨不得投1000亿！同时特别指出："这些百年企业ROE稳定在12%-15%，负债率仅30%，是真正的抗通胀资产。" 对中国投资者的启示：现在正是中国投资者"抄作业"的最佳窗口期。 手握37个茅台市值的现金，他在等什么？"宁可等50年，也不乱投500亿"——3700亿美元现金储备创历史新高的背 ...

Core Points - The EU is preparing to include Boeing aircraft in its countermeasures against the US due to failed negotiations [1] - The EU has suspended retaliatory tariffs on $210 billion worth of US goods until July 14, 2023, to promote negotiation progress [2] - The aerospace and defense sector in the US has a significant trade surplus, with exports nearing $136 billion and imports just below $22 billion in 2023 [3] Group 1: EU's Trade Measures - The EU Commission plans to add civil aircraft to a target list of US imports worth €100 billion if negotiations do not progress by July 14 [1] - The EU Trade Commissioner stated that currently, 70% of EU exports to the US are subject to tariffs, which could rise to 97% if the US continues imposing tariffs on various sectors [2] - The EU is prepared with alternative plans to restore fair competition if negotiations with the US do not yield necessary results [2] Group 2: Impact on the Aerospace Industry - Airlines are considering delaying deliveries of Boeing or Airbus aircraft to avoid increased costs from tariffs [2] - Airbus CEO expressed concerns about the negative impact of tariffs on both European and American stakeholders, emphasizing the need for resolution [3] - The current trade tensions are damaging the high-performance transatlantic ecosystem in the aerospace sector [3]

据大众新闻报道，世界贸易组织近日在瑞士日内瓦召开货物贸易理事会年度首次会议。中方主动设置议题，对美国"对等 关税"措施及其恶劣影响表达严重关切，要求美方切实遵守世贸组织规则，避免对全球经济和多边贸易体制造成负面冲 击。欧盟、英国、加拿大、日本、瑞士、挪威、韩国、马来西亚、巴西、秘鲁、哈萨克斯坦、乍得等46个世贸组织成员 在此议程下发言，对美国"对等关税"措施表达关注，呼吁美国切实遵守世贸组织规则。 据了解，中国是今年安理会轮值主席国，全权负责主持安理会的正式及非正式会议，同时也有权提出有关会议。这次中 国向193个联合国成员，来安理会参加会议，这在联合国成立以来，可能是第一次。报道披露了中国提出的会议文件，会 议将讨论单边主义与霸凌行为，对国际关系的影响。会议文件指出，所有国家尤其是发展中国家，都是单边主义与霸凌 行为的受害者。特朗普政府将关税武器化、作为极端施压的工具，严重违反国际贸易规则，让全球追求和平与发展的努 力因此蒙上阴影。 美国总统特朗普执政即将满百日。在此之际，美联社当地时间4月26日发布的民调显示，越来越多的美国人对特朗普的政 治议程感到不满意，就连共和党人，也只有约一半人认同他的议程，对他的 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenues totaled $548 million, down approximately 4% on an organic basis after adjusting for FX translation and business divestitures [20] - Adjusted EBITDA was $67 million, with year-over-year comparisons affected by negative FX and divestiture impacts of $7 million [21] - Adjusted diluted loss per share was $0.18, excluding the impact of special items [21] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Harsco Environmental segment revenues totaled $243 million, with adjusted EBITDA of $39 million, impacted by lower volumes due to site exits and closures [23] - Clean Earth achieved revenues of $235 million and adjusted EBITDA of $38 million, with EBITDA increasing by 12% supported by revenue growth of 4% [25] - Rail revenues totaled $70 million, with an adjusted EBITDA loss of $2 million, in line with expectations [26] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Steel production at customer locations declined less than 1% compared to the prior year, with production weakest in Asia, the Middle East, and Latin America [23] - The U.S. dollar strength has negatively impacted Harsco Environmental's revenues and EBITDA by approximately $100 million and $25 million over the past three years [13] - Recent dollar weakness is seen as a potential tailwind for Harsco Environmental, which generates roughly 80% of its revenues outside the U.S. [13] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on expanding service capabilities and business growth, particularly in Clean Earth, which is expected to outpace other segments [10][11] - Harsco Environmental is managing through a difficult period in the global steel industry, with expectations for stable performance on a like-for-like basis [17] - The company anticipates earnings growth and completion of ETO contracts in Rail, aiming for annual free cash flow of $150 million in the future [17] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledges significant macroeconomic uncertainty due to ongoing global trade issues but does not expect a material direct impact from tariffs [9][19] - The outlook for Clean Earth's earnings, margins, and free cash flow is positive, tracking ahead of financial targets established previously [11] - Management expects a stronger second half for Harsco Environmental, driven by new site ramp-ups and operational improvements [58] Other Important Information - Cash flow was ahead of expectations, supporting full-year cash flow guidance of $30 million to $50 million [7] - The company completed the rebuild of the Rail leadership team with new appointments [8] Q&A Session Summary Question: Thoughts on steel production and the economy going forward - Management expects a little bit of volume growth for Harsco Environmental, with efficiency and cost reduction programs mitigating impacts from site shutdowns [35] Question: Clean Earth's performance and volume assumptions - Management sees volume as a larger contributor to earnings growth this year, with no signs of economic slowdown yet [38][40] Question: Status of Rail ETO contract renegotiation - The amendment recognizes cost inflation and includes a new delivery schedule, reducing future penalty risks [46] Question: Sustainability of Clean Earth margin expansion - Management expects margins in Clean Earth to exceed previously projected levels, with ongoing efficiency initiatives contributing to margin growth [48][49] Question: Pressure in the steel industry and underlying market changes - Management notes that excess capacity in the steel industry remains a factor, but there are encouraging signs in the EU that may improve customer profitability [55]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - On April 10, the polyester industry chain rebounded across the board, with the main contracts of PX/PTA/PF/PR rising by 5.31%, 4.97%, 5.41%, and 4.11% respectively. The main reason was that Trump halted the reciprocal tariffs that took effect on April 9 and implemented a 90 - day suspension of reciprocal tariffs on countries that did not take retaliatory actions for trade negotiations [1]. - The compromise on tariff issues led to a significant rebound in risk assets on Wednesday night, with oil prices rebounding about 10% from the low, driving the overall rebound of downstream energy - chemical products. Although direct textile and clothing export orders to the US remained suspended, indirect orders from Southeast Asia resumed shipping on Thursday, and the 90 - day buffer period might increase subsequent rush - export and re - export orders, partially offsetting the negative impact of high tariffs on China [1]. - The suspension of reciprocal tariffs offset some negative demand impacts, but direct textile and clothing export orders to the US remained suspended, and the demand expectation for textiles and clothing was still weak. Attention should be paid to further changes in trade policies [1]. Summary by Directory I. Price and Basis - The report presents figures on TA and PX main contracts, their basis and inter - period spreads, PTA East China spot basis, and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - dull natural white basis [9][10][13] II. Upstream Profits and Spreads - Figures show PX processing fee PXN, PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [16][19] III. International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - It includes figures on toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korea FOB - Japan naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [24][26] IV. Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - Figures display the operating rates of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the operating rates of PX in China and Asia [27][30][31] V. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures show PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [33][36][37] VI. Downstream Polyester Load - Figures present the production and sales of filament and short - fiber, polyester load, direct - spinning filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament factory inventory days, and the operating rates of looms, texturing machines, and printing and dyeing machines in Jiangsu and Zhejiang [44][46][56] VII. PF Detailed Data - Figures include 1.4D physical and equity inventories, polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, raw - recycled spread, pure polyester yarn operating rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn operating rate, and polyester - cotton yarn processing fee [68][69][77] VIII. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Figures show polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory bottle - chip inventory days, bottle - chip spot processing fee, bottle - chip export processing fee, bottle - chip export profit, the price difference between East China water bottle - chips and recycled 3A - grade white bottle - chips, bottle - chip next - month spread, and bottle - chip next - next - month spread [84][86][93] Strategy - Unilateral: In the short term, be cautious about short - selling PX/PTA/PF/PR on rallies for hedging. Although the US relaxed the intensity of reciprocal tariffs on other countries, the China - US trade war might further escalate, and the US might threaten other countries to impose tariffs on Chinese goods and semi - finished products. Attention should be paid to tariff negotiations in traditional re - export countries such as Vietnam, India, and Bangladesh. In the medium term, trade protection would bring uncertainty to global economic growth, and there was a risk of further decline in oil prices. It is recommended to maintain a light position and be cautious [4][5] - Cross - variety: Go long on MEG and short on PTA - Cross - period: No relevant strategy provided

签署了上调进口汽车关税行政令的美国总统特朗普（reuters） 从日本进口的汽车也将成为对象。发动机等关键零部件也将成为对象。日本对美国出口商品 中最多的是汽车，2024年的汽车出口额为6.0261万亿日元，占对美出口总额的28.3%…… 发动机和变速箱也成为对象 新关税的对象为所有非美国国内生产的汽车。不仅包括乘用车，还包括SUV和皮卡等部分卡车。 白宫透露，对发动机、变速箱和动力总成等关键零部件也将征收25%的关税。 对于符合美国-墨西哥-加拿大协定（USMCA）条件的汽车零部件，将暂时豁免关税。一旦美国政府完 成系统调整等，将根据美国产材料的使用比例，减少关税的负担比例。 美国政府高级官员表示，针对目前根据美墨加协定从加拿大墨西哥免税进口的汽车，将根据使用多少美 国造零部件来调整税率。例如，如果整车全部零部件的一半为美国造，将征收相当于25%一半的12.5% 的关税。 一系列的关税上调为基于美国《贸易扩大法》第232条的措施。为了确保安全保障，将限制汽车进口。 白宫高级官员表示，新关税预计每年将带来超过1000亿美元的税收。 美国总统特朗普3月26日宣布，将对进口汽车加征25%的关税。这将是一项不设期限 ...

要点 2016年美国大选特朗普首次胜选后，我们发布了报告指出"祸水外引"的风险（2016年12月7日《祸水东 引》）。今年特朗普再次胜选，其政策主张进一步引发市场关注。特朗普主张"加关税、减税收"，通过对 外构筑贸易壁垒、对内减税的方式吸引制造业回流美国，并实现美国的再工业化。这些主张与他在上一任 期的政策保持一致。然而， 无论从美国外部环境还是内部情况来看，本轮都与上一轮有所 不同。 特朗普1.0版本所面临的内政外交空间相对宽裕。 2016年，特朗普意外赢得大选，意味着美国持续"金融 化"带来的贫富差距扩大正加剧内部矛盾。尽管如此，特朗普"财政刺激+贸易保护"的1.0版本可实施政策 空间仍较现在大：一是通胀和美国债务水平均偏低；二是地缘问题对美国内政外交和两党的影响没有现在 那么突出。 相比特朗普上一任期，从国际环境来看，当前，尽管美国仍被普遍认为是"超级大国"，但其国际影响力正 在减弱。 相比2016年，美国经济、工业、贸易等多维度指标在全球中的份额均出现下降。而在这个阶 段，新兴市场国家的实力不断增强，新兴经济体GDP全球占比明显提升，区域性的贸易协定也持续增多。 同时，包括俄乌冲突在内的地缘冲突指向尽 ...

高关税和美国经济、外交利益存在矛盾。 在经济方面，高关税难以弥补减税带来的财政缺口，财政赤 字仍可能大幅扩张。短期内，进口需求难以迅速减少，关税成本大概率会被转嫁给消费者，推高国内价 格水平。中长期来看，即使企业回流，美国制造业并不具备竞争优势，反而可能引发成本推动型通胀上 升，进而对联储政策空间形成制约。在外交方面，高关税可能引发美国与他国、特别是盟国间的利益冲 突。一旦引发国与国之间竞相加征关税，则可能导致全球需求萎缩。 要点 特朗普的竞选策略延续了其第一任期的风格，尤以贸易保护和大规模减税引人关注。这一"增关税、减 税收"的组合，意在财政上取得平衡，更重要的是通过对外筑起贸易壁垒、对内减税放松，来吸引制造 业回流，推动美国再工业化。然而，特朗普的政策主张可能存在多个矛盾。 "再工业化"与市场规律间存在矛盾。 战后，美国逐渐从"工业强国"转向"金融强国"，从"生产者"转型为 "财务投资者"。这一转变主要由市场力量推动，本质上是美国对外投资的收益率显著高于本土投资。当 前，美国生产成本高企，美国制造业回流并不符合资本利益，换句话说，单凭市场力量实现难度较大。 而如果美国逆市场力量推动制造业回流，可能需要投入 ...