2月10日，国内黄金零售价普遍达1530-1566元/克，显著高于上海黄金交易所AU9999基础价1105元/克，国际金价经历剧烈V型波动，1月底突破5000美元/盎 司后急跌，近期反弹至5000美元上方。年轻群体加速转向黄金消费，机构预测2026年底金价或升至6000-6300美元，央行购金与避险需求成核心支撑。 铂金报价同步分化，菜百765元/克与老凤祥960元/克的差距凸显品牌策略差异。市场分析认为，高溢价模式短期难改，水贝等批发集散地正吸引价格敏感型 消费者，推动行业竞争优化。 二、人民币黄金市场 上海黄金交易所数据显示，2月10日AU9999实时价1111元/克，日内波动于1092-1113元/克，沪金期货报1114元/克，略高于现货体现市场预期。该价格作为国 内黄金定价基准，由交易所实时发布，剔除零售环节附加成本，更贴近国际金价传导机制。 当前价较年初低位回升约8%，较1月高点回落5%，反映短期避险情绪与美元走势的博弈，需强调，基础金价仅适用于场内交易，普通投资者通过银行或交 易所渠道获取时，将叠加手续费形成实际成本。 业内专家指出，人民币计价黄金与美元金价联动性超85%，美联储政策转向预期正逐步 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent drop in gold prices before the Spring Festival raises questions about purchasing decisions, despite retail prices remaining high at gold stores [1][3]. Group 1: Market Trends - Gold prices fell nearly 3% to $4914 per ounce on the last trading day before the Spring Festival, while domestic gold prices dropped to 1096.99 yuan per gram [1]. - Historical data shows that gold prices often decline in the week leading up to the Spring Festival due to increased cash outflows for year-end expenses [3]. - The expectation of a stronger U.S. economy and delayed interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have contributed to a decrease in gold's attractiveness, as the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields rise [3]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - The long-term fundamentals for gold remain intact, with central banks continuing to buy gold and persistent geopolitical tensions sustaining demand for safe-haven assets [5]. - For those looking to invest in gold bars or through regular purchases, a strategy of dollar-cost averaging is recommended to mitigate the impact of market volatility [7]. - Investors should avoid selling immediately after the Spring Festival, as prices may be depressed due to high selling pressure; instead, a staggered selling approach is advised to lock in profits [7]. Group 3: Market Sentiment - The current market is characterized by fluctuating emotions among investors, oscillating between fear of missing out and fear of losses [10]. - Understanding historical patterns and maintaining a rational approach is crucial for navigating the gold market, especially during the typical low periods around the Spring Festival [11]. - The essence of investment in gold is not just about numbers but also about managing emotions and market sentiment effectively [11].

（来源：财闻） 推动该趋势的主要因素包括金价走强及欧美地缘与贸易摩擦（如格陵兰关税威胁）带来的避险需求上 升。 欧盟拟采取反制关税措施，进一步加剧出口型经济体压力与市场波动，强化黄金作为防御性资产的吸引 力。 其中，英国黄金ETF流入居首，受高通胀与政治紧张情绪驱动，投资者加大对冲配置力度。 MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ 英国黄金ETF流入居首，受高通胀与政治紧张情绪驱动，投资者加大对冲配置力度。 据世界黄金协会消息，2026年1月，欧洲地区黄金ETF实现约20亿美元资金流入，已连续三个月保持净 流入态势。 ...

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Group 1 - Silver prices are experiencing slight weakness during the Asian trading session, influenced by the upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report and inflation data, leading to a consolidation phase in the silver market [1] - Geopolitical tensions remain high but have not escalated further, providing limited selling pressure on precious metals due to safe-haven demand [1] Group 2 - Trump has nominated Kevin Walsh as the Federal Reserve Chair, claiming he could drive U.S. economic growth to 15%, significantly exceeding market expectations of 2.4% and the historical average of 2.8%, indicating potential pressure on Walsh if appointed [3] - Chinese regulators are tightening control over financial institutions' exposure to U.S. Treasury bonds, pushing the offshore RMB to a 34-month high against the dollar at 6.9, reflecting a global trend of reducing dollar assets [3] - An Estonian intelligence report suggests that Russia is using ceasefire negotiations as a manipulation tool, indicating no genuine intent to end military actions, which poses ongoing threats to neighboring countries [3] Group 3 - The next upward target for March silver futures is to break the key resistance level of $92.015, while the short-term downward target for bears is to fall below the important support level of $60 [4] - The first resistance level for silver futures is the overnight high of $83.745, with further resistance at $85; the first support level is this week's low of $83.76, with additional support at $82 [4]

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices experienced a significant drop due to a resurgence of AI-related panic leading to a sell-off in tech stocks, which triggered liquidity issues in the U.S. stock market. This resulted in traders selling metals to cover stock losses, alongside comments from Trump suggesting the U.S. "must" reach an agreement with Iran, which diminished safe-haven demand for gold [1][10]. Price Movement and Market Reaction - On February 12, gold prices fell sharply after reaching a high of $5,100.26, entering a trading range of $5,080 to $5,045 before plummeting over $160 to a low of $4,878.77. The day ended with gold closing at $4,921.86, marking a daily decline of $170.97 or 3.36% [3][12]. - The opening on February 13 saw gold prices supported by an upward trend channel, leading to an initial rebound. Additionally, the market absorbed the liquidity sell-off, with U.S. initial jobless claims exceeding expectations and January's existing home sales showing weakness, which continued to support gold prices [3][12]. Economic Indicators and Future Outlook - Attention is focused on the U.S. January CPI data, with market expectations leaning towards an increase in rate cut predictions, which would be favorable for gold prices. The outlook for gold remains bullish, with strategies suggesting buying on dips when prices touch support levels [5][14]. - Technically, gold prices in February have shown a rebound after a drop, maintaining a position above the five-month moving average, indicating that the bearish sentiment from January has likely been exhausted. The new bullish outlook remains valid, with expectations of further strength or a potential consolidation before another upward move [6][14]. Technical Analysis - Daily charts indicate that gold prices fell below short-term moving averages, with bearish sentiment prevailing. However, there is support from the upward trend channel and various moving averages, suggesting a positive outlook for the bull market. Current pullbacks present opportunities for re-entry into long positions [8][16]. - Specific trading levels to watch include support around $4,900 or $4,840, and resistance at $5,020 or $5,095 for gold. For silver, support is noted at $74.00 or $70.90, with resistance at $79.70 or $83.60 [9][16].

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen is expected to achieve its largest weekly gain since November 2024, driven by market confidence in Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's victory, which is believed to support financial market stability while expanding fiscal stimulus [1] Group 1: Currency Movement - The yen has appreciated against the US dollar for four consecutive days, with a week-to-date increase of approximately 2.8% [1] - The demand for safe-haven assets has supported the yen amid significant sell-offs in risk assets [1] Group 2: Political and Economic Implications - Investors interpret Kishida's victory as a reduction in political uncertainty and a decrease in the risks associated with the worst fiscal outcomes, contributing to the yen's strength [1] - Japanese government bond yields have retreated from multi-year highs reached last month [1] Group 3: Fiscal Policy - Kishida acknowledged market concerns regarding the two-year reduction in the food consumption tax and reiterated that the government would not issue bonds to finance this measure [1]

2月12日，在周三的美国交易时段早盘，贵金属市场呈现出明显的攀升态势。GTC泽汇资本表示，由于 市场在关键就业报告发布前涌现大量避险需求，黄金与白银价格均表现稳健，其中白银再次占据领涨地 位。目前4月黄金期货价格已触及5119.10美元，而3月白银价格也同步上行至85.465美元，整体市场处于 积极的反弹模式。 针对今日异常的"就业周三"现象，由于此前政府停摆导致劳工部推迟发布数据，市场正高度关注即将揭 晓的1月非农就业报告。GTC泽汇资本认为，考虑到基准数据的下修预期以及失业率可能维持在4.4%的 历史高点，市场情绪偏向谨慎。此外，美国FAA突然暂停埃尔帕索机场所有航班的举动引发了地缘安全 疑虑，这种不明原因的安保限制进一步强化了贵金属作为避险资产的吸引力。 实物供应的紧缺也为价格提供了支撑。GTC泽汇资本表示，亚洲市场的投资与工业需求正迅速消耗库 存，导致当地生产商面临订单积压。目前上海期货交易所的近月合约溢价已创下纪录，市场深陷现货升 水结构。这种由于交割材料枯竭引发的库存危机，使得空头持有者不得不支付延期费来避免实物交割， 凸显了现货市场的极度稀缺性。 从外部市场环境来看，美元小幅回调与油价上涨为金银 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, precious metal prices are expected to continue to fluctuate within a stable range, and investors are advised to pay attention to US CPI data. During the long Spring Festival holiday, investors are recommended to hold light positions to avoid risks from overseas market fluctuations. [6] - In the long - term, the underlying logic of the precious metal bull market remains solid. With the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates this year, continuous global geopolitical uncertainties, and the US's huge debt promoting the de - dollarization wave, the allocation demand of global central banks, institutions, and residents is expected to continue. The price center of precious metals still has room to rise, and long - term strategies suggest buying on dips. [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Tracking - **2.11 vs 2.10 Price Changes**: On February 11, compared with February 10, London gold spot rose 0.8% to $5064.52 per ounce, London silver spot rose 2.7% to $83.45 per ounce, COMEX gold rose 0.9% to $5088.90 per ounce, COMEX silver rose 2.9% to $83.23 per ounce, AU2602 rose 0.8% to 1133.00 yuan per gram, AG2602 rose 4.0% to 20505.00 yuan per kilogram, AU (T + D) rose 0.8% to 1126.49 yuan per gram, and AG (T + D) rose 4.0% to 19949.00 yuan per kilogram. [5] - **2.11 vs 2.10 Spread/Ratio Changes**: The gold TD - SHFE active spread rose 9.2% to - 6.51 yuan per gram, the silver TD - SHFE active spread rose 4.9% to - 556 yuan per kilogram, the gold internal - external spread (TD - London) rose 8.9% to - 4.16 yuan per gram, the silver internal - external spread (TD - London) fell 16.2% to - 977 yuan per kilogram, the SHFE gold - silver ratio fell 3.1% to 55.25, the COMEX gold - silver ratio fell 2.0% to 61.15, the AU2604 - 2602 spread fell 5.1% to 2.60 yuan per gram, and the AG2604 - 2602 spread fell 23.4% to - 439 yuan per kilogram. [5] 3.2 Position Data - **2.10 vs 2.9 Position Changes**: On February 10, compared with February 9, the gold ETF - SPDR decreased 0.03% to 1079.32 tons, the silver ETF - SLV increased 0.16% to 16216.45052 tons, the non - commercial long positions of COMEX gold decreased 14.91% to 214508 contracts, the non - commercial short positions increased 4.71% to 48904 contracts, the non - commercial net long positions decreased 19.37% to 165604 contracts, the non - commercial long positions of COMEX silver decreased 10.56% to 38883 contracts, the non - commercial short positions decreased 34.22% to 13006 contracts, and the non - commercial net long positions increased 9.17% to 25877 contracts. [5] 3.3 Inventory Data - **2.11 vs 2.10 Inventory Changes**: On February 11, compared with February 10, the SHFE gold inventory remained unchanged at 105072.00 kilograms, the SHFE silver inventory increased 5.79% to 342102.00 kilograms, the COMEX gold inventory decreased 0.18% to 35229811 troy ounces, and the COMEX silver inventory decreased 1.07% to 386273025 troy ounces. [5] 3.4 Interest Rates/Exchange Rates/Stock Market - **2.11 vs 2.10 Interest Rates/Exchange Rates/Stock Market Changes**: On February 11, compared with February 10, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate fell 0.03% to 6.94, the US dollar index rose 0.01% to 96.87, the 2 - year US Treasury yield fell 0.86% to 3.45%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield fell 1.42% to 4.16%, the VIX rose 2.48% to 17.79, the S&P 500 fell 0.33% to 6941.81, and NYWEX crude oil fell 0.34% to 64.20. [5] 3.5 Market Review - On February 11, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed up 0.56% to 1130.4 yuan per gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed up 1.88% to 20944 yuan per kilogram. [5] 3.6 Influencing Factor Analysis - The uncertainty of the Middle East geopolitical situation has increased, and safe - haven demand and continued gold purchases by global central banks have pushed up precious metal prices. However, the unexpectedly strong US January non - farm payrolls report has shifted the market's expectation of the Fed's first interest rate cut from June to July, strengthening the US dollar index and pressuring precious metal prices. [6] - For silver, the relatively high London spot silver lease rate, the decline in New York inventory, and the low - level inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange limit the downward space of silver prices. But due to the inflow of imported silver into the market and weak pre - holiday market demand, the domestic silver price is continuously at a discount to the overseas price, and the monthly spread of silver futures has also narrowed. [6]

Core Viewpoint - The gold futures market saw a significant increase, with April 2026 gold prices rising by $59.9 to close at $5,107.8 per ounce, reflecting a 1.19% increase, driven by ongoing geopolitical tensions and strong safe-haven demand [1] Group 1: Employment Data Impact - The U.S. Labor Department reported a non-farm employment increase of 130,000 in January, significantly above the consensus expectation of 70,000 and the previous month's 50,000 [1] - The unemployment rate for January was reported at 4.3%, slightly lower than the previous month's 4.4% [1] - Following the employment data release, the U.S. dollar strengthened, leading to a decrease in the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in March, dropping to below 15% [1] Group 2: Precious Metals Market Dynamics - Despite the strong employment report and a rising dollar, the precious metals market maintained most of its overnight gains, indicating robust demand for gold and silver [1] - On the same day, silver futures for March delivery rose by 350.5 cents, closing at $84.085 per ounce, marking a 4.35% increase [1] - Analysts suggest that the price movements in gold and silver reflect solid underlying demand factors, including safe-haven buying, accumulation behavior, and central bank purchases of gold [1]