Group 1 - COMEX gold has surpassed $4600 per ounce, reaching a new high, with gold ETF (518800) rising nearly 2% during trading [1][2] - Recent geopolitical events, such as the U.S. actions against Venezuela, have stimulated demand for safe-haven assets, supporting gold prices [2] - The long-term trend indicates a restructuring of monetary credit, with an increasing U.S. fiscal deficit leading to central bank gold purchases, which is expected to drive gold prices higher [2] Group 2 - The current inflow of funds into gold ETFs has exceeded 6 billion yuan over the past 60 days, indicating strong investor interest [1][2] - The decline in real interest rates following rate cuts is likely to attract more investments into gold ETFs, suggesting a potential recovery in the valuation of precious metals [2] - Investors are encouraged to consider direct investments in physical gold and tax-exempt gold fund ETFs (518800), as well as gold stock ETFs (517400) that cover the entire gold industry chain [2]

消息面上，美国经济数据层面劳动力市场喜忧参半，非农与ADP就业偏弱但失业率改善，总体削弱降息 条件，但制造业PMI与新屋开工不及预期亦加剧基本面担忧，对贵金属仍起短期支撑作用。地缘紧张局 势持续发酵，据新华网报道，美国《纽约时报》10日援引匿名美国官员的话报道称，美国总统特朗普近 日已听取关于军事打击伊朗方案的汇报。 1月5日-1月9日，上周受地缘政治及美联储鸽派言论连续利好催化，COMEX黄金期货价格重新站上4500 美元关口，截至收盘，COMEX黄金期货周度涨4.36%报4518.4美元/盎司，截至亚市收盘，黄金ETF华夏 （518850）周度涨3.01%，黄金股ETF（159562）周度涨6.77%，有色金属ETF基金(516650)周度涨 8.93%。 市场分析指出，美国突袭委内瑞拉引发地缘政治动荡和市场避险情绪升温，加之发达经济体债务膨胀， 投资者增加贵金属配置。近期地缘动荡频发推动资产储备多元化，避险需求利好黄金，黄金作为安全资 产的需求持续提升。 ...

◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2602 | 震荡 | 强势 | 震荡 偏强 | 观望 | 宏观氛围冷却，短期避险需求上 升 | | 铜 | 2602 | 震荡 | 强势 | 震荡 偏弱 | 长线看强 | 宏观氛围冷却，短期多头了结意 愿强 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2026 年 1 月 12 日） 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：强势 参考观点：观望 核心逻辑：上周金价震荡上行，沪金再度站上 1000 元关口 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Swiss Franc (CHF) continues to strengthen against the US Dollar (USD), driven by its status as a safe-haven currency amid rising global political and economic uncertainties [1][2]. Group 1: Currency Performance - As of January 12, the CHF/USD exchange rate is at 1.2527, reflecting a 0.35% increase from the previous trading day [1]. - The CHF/USD has shown a daily trading range of 1.2473 to 1.2547, indicating a volatility of 0.59% [1]. - The current exchange rate stability is reinforced by a strong demand for CHF in large transactions, with a conversion rate of 1 CHF to 1.2485 USD [1]. Group 2: Economic Factors - The traditional safe-haven status of the CHF is bolstered by Switzerland's political stability, long-term trade surplus, low debt levels, and a robust innovative economy [1]. - An agreement between Switzerland and the US regarding tariff disputes has mitigated significant external economic risks, supporting the CHF's strength [1]. - The US Dollar Index has shown insufficient momentum, closing at 98.90 on January 9, which has created favorable conditions for the CHF to appreciate against the USD [2]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Technical Analysis - The Swiss National Bank's (SNB) stable monetary policy, in the context of rising inflation and nearing interest rate limits, has enhanced market confidence in the CHF [2]. - Technical indicators suggest that the CHF/USD is in a bullish trend, having broken through the upper boundary of a short-term trading range, with potential resistance at 1.2600 if the upward momentum continues [2][3]. - Short-term trading strategies suggest buying in the range of 1.2480-1.2550, with support at 1.2473 and a stop-loss set below 1.2450 [3].

中国基金报记者 张舟 另外，2025年全球央行多次增持黄金，以增强资产组合的多元性与稳定性，这促使国际黄金价格大涨。与之相反，美元指数从2025年年初开始持续震荡下 跌，美元在全球外汇储备中的占比也一跌再跌。 现货白银涨幅扩大至4%，最高价报84美元/盎司，创历史新高。截至发稿报83.527美元/盎司。 | < W | 伦敦银现 | | | | | | | | Q | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | SPTAGUSDOZ.IDC | | | | | | | | | | | 83.527 | | 昨结 | | 79.764 | 总量 | | | | 0 | | | +3.763 | +4.72% 开盘 | | | 80.697 | 现手 | | | | 0 | | | 最高价 | 84.000 | 持 仓 | | 0 | 外 | 豊 | | | 0 | | | 最低价 | 79.907 | 墙 | せ | 0 | 内 | 물 | | | 0 | | | 关时 | 目K 周Ｋ 五日 | | | | ...

1月12日，现货黄金盘中一度突破4600美元/盎司，创出历史新高；现货白银涨近5%，站上84美元/盎 司，同样创出历史新高。中信证券认为，展望2026年，黄金上涨的确定性仍然较大，主要来自于美国货 币和财政的双宽松预期和美国经济滞胀压力难以短时间消退。中性假设下，模型预期2026年底国际金价 有望超过5100美元/盎司。 消息面上，2026年开局地缘动荡频发。美军此前强行控制并带离委内瑞拉总统马杜罗夫妇；伊朗国内局 势升温，特朗普公开威胁"随时提供帮助"甚至"严厉打击"；特朗普再次公开谈论购买/控制格陵兰岛； 此外，俄乌冲突仍然持续。市场避险需求升温。 黄金股涨幅居前，截至发稿，中国黄金国际(02099)涨4.41%，报168港元；中国白银集团(00815)涨 4.29%，报0.73港元；灵宝黄金(03330)涨3.08%，报20.1港元；山东黄金(01787)涨2.56%，报40.92港元； 招金矿业(01818)涨2.59%，报36.5港元。 ...

与此同时，伊朗国内局势持续动荡。抗议活动引发的政局不确定性，直接触发了市场的避险需求。地缘 风险升温时，投资者往往转向黄金等传统"安全港"。这种由不安驱动的买盘，与降息预期形成的金融属 性利好相互叠加，形成共振。 白银价格同样创下历史新高，延续上周近10%的涨势；钯金与铂金同步走强。这显示当前资金并非单独 追逐黄金，而是对整个贵金属板块进行价值重估。 黄金在过去一年已积累显著涨幅，但资金并未急于撤离。部分资产管理机构选择继续持有，这反映出对 黄金长期价值的认可。除了短期因素，对美元信用的长期审视也在推动黄金成为战略性配置资产。 周一早盘，国际金价突破每盎司4580美元关口。这并非孤立事件，背后交织着经济预期与地缘政治的双 重叙事。 上周美国非农就业数据不及预期，市场对美联储延续降息步伐的预判进一步强化。对于黄金这类不生息 资产，利率走低预期降低了持有成本，吸引力自然上升。自去年下半年美联储连续三次降息以来，市场 已为更宽松的货币环境做好准备。 黄金创下新高，是多重叙事共同作用的结果：货币政策预期、地缘政治风险、长期资产配置逻辑转变， 三者交织。金价波动如同一面镜子，映照出全球资本在增长与风险间的复杂权衡。当经 ...

智通财经APP获悉，黄金股涨幅居前，截至发稿，中国黄金国际(02099)涨4.41%，报168港元；中国白 银集团(00815)涨4.29%，报0.73港元；灵宝黄金(03330)涨3.08%，报20.1港元；山东黄金(01787)涨 2.56%，报40.92港元；招金矿业(01818)涨2.59%，报36.5港元。 1月12日，现货黄金盘中一度突破4600美元/盎司，创出历史新高；现货白银涨近5%，站上84美元/盎 司，同样创出历史新高。中信证券认为，展望2026年，黄金上涨的确定性仍然较大，主要来自于美国货 币和财政的双宽松预期和美国经济滞胀压力难以短时间消退。中性假设下，模型预期2026年底国际金价 有望超过5100美元/盎司。 消息面上，2026年开局地缘动荡频发。美军此前强行控制并带离委内瑞拉总统马杜罗夫妇；伊朗国内局 势升温，特朗普公开威胁"随时提供帮助"甚至"严厉打击"；特朗普再次公开谈论购买/控制格陵兰岛； 此外，俄乌冲突仍然持续。市场避险需求升温。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the surge in spot gold prices, which reached a historical high of $4601.38 per ounce, driven by geopolitical risks and increased demand for safe-haven assets [2][6]. Group 1: Gold Market Performance - Spot gold prices have risen significantly, breaking through key levels of $4400, $4500, and $4550, ultimately reaching $4601.38 per ounce [2]. - As of the latest update, spot gold is reported at $4580.393 per ounce, reflecting a daily increase of 1.58% [2][3]. - The New York futures gold price also surpassed $4610 per ounce, currently reported at $4602.5, with a daily increase of 2.26% [3][4]. Group 2: Silver Market Performance - Spot silver prices have increased by 4%, reaching a high of $84 per ounce, marking a new historical peak [4][5]. - The latest report indicates spot silver at $83.527 per ounce, showing a rise of 4.72% [5]. Group 3: Geopolitical Influences - Rising geopolitical risks associated with Iran and Venezuela have reignited market demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [5][6]. - The strong performance of gold, silver, and platinum at the beginning of the year reflects a combination of geopolitical hedging, financial flows, and structural investment themes [6]. Group 4: Central Bank Activities - In 2025, global central banks have increased their gold holdings multiple times to enhance portfolio diversity and stability, contributing to the surge in international gold prices [6]. - Conversely, the US dollar index has been in a continuous downward trend since the beginning of 2025, leading to a declining share of the dollar in global foreign exchange reserves [7].

1月5日-1月9日，上周受地缘政治及美联储鸽派言论连续利好催化，COMEX黄金期货价格重新站上4500 美元关口，截至收盘，COMEX黄金期货周度涨4.36%报4518.4美元/盎司，截至亚市收盘，黄金ETF华夏 周度涨3.01%，黄金股ETF周度涨6.77%，有色金属ETF基金周度涨8.93%。 消息面上，美国经济数据层面劳动力市场喜忧参半，非农与ADP就业偏弱但失业率改善，总体削弱降息 条件，但制造业PMI与新屋开工不及预期亦加剧基本面担忧，对贵金属仍起短期支撑作用。地缘紧张局 势持续发酵，据新华网报道，美国《纽约时报》10日援引匿名美国官员的话报道称，美国总统特朗普近 日已听取关于军事打击伊朗方案的汇报。 市场分析指出，美国突袭委内瑞拉引发地缘政治动荡和市场避险情绪升温，加之发达经济体债务膨胀， 投资者增加贵金属配置。近期地缘动荡频发推动资产储备多元化，避险需求利好黄金，黄金作为安全资 产的需求持续提升。 ...