（原标题：全线大涨！美联储降息大消息！重磅数据取消发布） 美联储降息预期突变。 受美联储官员"鸽派"言论刺激，隔夜美股市场全线反攻，纳指一度大涨超2%。消息面上，美联储"三把 手"、美国纽约联储主席约翰·威廉姆斯表示，随着劳动力市场降温，美联储在近期仍有进一步降息的空 间。 他在智利圣地亚哥发表的演讲稿中指出，美国就业面临的下行风险已经上升，而通胀面临的上行风险有 所缓解。他认为货币政策目前处于温和紧缩状态，但限制性程度低于近期行动之前的水平。 在他讲话之后，交易员对美联储12月降息的押注明显升温。根据CME"美联储观察"工具的数据，截至 目前，美联储12月"降息25个基点"的概率升至近70%，前一天这一概率仅有39.1%。 美股全线反攻 美东时间11月21日，美股三大指数集体反攻，纳指一度大涨超2%，截至收盘，道指涨1.08%，标普500 指数涨0.98%，纳指涨0.88%。 在此之前，美股遭遇猛烈抛售，从周线维度来看，纳指累计下跌2.74%，标普500指数累跌1.95%，道指 累跌1.91%。 大型科技股涨跌不一，谷歌大涨超3%，苹果涨近2%，亚马逊涨1.63%，Meta涨0.87%；英伟达跌 0.96% ...

在 在他讲话之后，交易员对美联储12月降息的押注明显升温。根据CME"美联储观察"工具的数据，截至目前，美联储12月"降 息25个基点"的概率升至近70%，前一天这一概率仅有39.1%。 美股全线反攻 美东时间11月21日，美股三大指数集体反攻，纳指一度大涨超2%，截至收盘，道指涨1.08%，标普500指数涨0.98%，纳指涨 0.88%。 在此之前，美股遭遇猛烈抛售，从周线维度来看，纳指累计下跌2.74%，标普500指数累跌1.95%，道指累跌1.91%。 大型科技股涨跌不一，谷歌大涨超3%，苹果涨近2%，亚马逊涨1.63%，Meta涨0.87%；英伟达跌0.96%，微软、特斯拉、博通 跌超1%，甲骨文大跌超5%。 热门中概股多数上涨，纳斯达克中国金龙指数收涨1.23%，蔚来汽车大涨超3%，理想汽车、哔哩哔哩、腾讯音乐涨超2%。 美联储降息预期突变。 受美联储官员"鸽派"言论刺激，隔夜美股市场全线反攻，纳指一度大涨超2%。消息面上，美联储"三把手"、美国纽约联储主 席约翰·威廉姆斯表示，随着劳动力市场降温，美联储在近期仍有进一步降息的空间。 明星股方面，美国制药巨头礼来收涨1.57%，公司总市值突破1万亿美 ...

Market Performance - The US stock market experienced significant volatility, with the Nasdaq index initially rising by 2.58% before closing down 2.15%, indicating a dramatic reversal within the trading day [1][3] - The S&P 500 opened up 1.92% but ended the day down 1.56%, while the Dow Jones also shifted from a 1.63% gain to a 0.84% loss [3][10] - Technology stocks were heavily impacted, with solid-state drive stocks dropping over 7%, and semiconductor stocks declining by 3.39%, including notable drops from Micron Technology (down 10.88%) and Western Digital (down 8.92%) [3][10] Chinese Concept Stocks - Chinese concept stocks faced a sharp decline, with the index initially rising by 1.68% but ultimately falling by 2.87%. Key stocks like NIO and Xpeng Motors dropped by 6.09% and 5.10%, respectively [7][10] European Market Contrast - In contrast to the US market, European stock markets closed higher, with the UK FTSE rising by 0.21%, Germany's DAX increasing by 0.50%, and France's CAC up by 0.34% [7][10] A-Share Market Dynamics - The A-share market has shown signs of stabilization after four consecutive days of decline, with a potential for a more independent market trend compared to the US [9][11] - The A-share market's current dynamic price-to-earnings ratio is approximately 11 times, significantly lower than the US market's 18 times, providing a valuation advantage [11][13] Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to monitor the flow of northbound capital, as significant outflows could exacerbate market volatility, while limited outflows or inflows could stabilize market sentiment [15][17] - The market is expected to show clear differentiation in sector performance, with the new energy sector, particularly lithium battery stocks, being active due to rising lithium carbonate prices [15][17]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market is experiencing volatility, with Eli Lilly becoming the first healthcare company to reach a market capitalization of $1 trillion, driven by investor enthusiasm for its weight loss drugs [1][4]. Market Performance - On November 21, U.S. stock indices showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones rising over 220 points, while the Nasdaq index experienced fluctuations and the S&P 500 saw a slight increase [2]. - The market's recovery was aided by dovish signals from a Federal Reserve official, increasing the likelihood of a rate cut in December to over 70% [2]. - Despite a significant rally earlier in the week, the S&P 500 is down over 2% for the week, with the Dow and Nasdaq also experiencing declines of nearly 3% [3]. Eli Lilly's Milestone - Eli Lilly's market capitalization surpassed $1 trillion, making it the largest pharmaceutical company globally and the second U.S. company outside the tech sector to achieve this milestone [4]. - The surge in Eli Lilly's stock price, which rose 1.7% at one point, is largely attributed to the growing interest in its GLP-1 class of drugs for obesity and diabetes treatment [4]. - The market for Eli Lilly's next-generation oral weight loss drug is projected to reach $95 billion by 2030 [4]. Competitive Landscape - Eli Lilly has captured nearly 58% of the market share in the GLP-1 drug segment, which includes Ozempic and Wegovy [5]. - Analysts note that Eli Lilly has rapidly gained market share, outperforming its competitor Novo Nordisk, which initially led in the obesity treatment space [5]. - The company's stock has increased by 37% this year and is expected to rise by 32% in 2024, positioning it as a potential leader in the global weight loss drug market [5].

Group 1 - The global financial markets experienced a sudden downturn on November 18 and 19, with major indices like the Nikkei and Korean stock market plummeting, alongside declines in precious metals and Bitcoin [1] - The catalyst for this market turbulence included a significant drop in expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, with the likelihood for a December cut falling below 50%, prompting investors to reassess risk and return [1] - Japan's bond market saw massive sell-offs, with the 10-year government bond yield soaring above 1.75%, nearing levels not seen since 2008, which could impact global liquidity and trigger a domino effect [1] Group 2 - The Chinese market was also affected, with A-shares and Hong Kong stocks following the international trend, leading to a three-day decline in the Shanghai Composite Index for the first time since mid-September [3] - Despite the negative sentiment, UBS released a 2026 outlook report expressing optimism, predicting the MSCI China Index could reach 100 points by the end of 2026, representing a potential increase of about 14% [3] - UBS highlighted sectors such as internet, hardware technology, and brokerage firms as promising, citing that anti-involution policies and declining depreciation expenses could enhance corporate profitability [3] Group 3 - UBS noted that the global pullback in AI stocks might negatively impact Chinese tech stocks, but they believe the correlation is lower compared to countries like South Korea, suggesting that domestic developments could mitigate external shocks [5] - On the corporate front, Baidu reported a quarterly revenue of 31.2 billion yuan, with core revenue at 24.7 billion yuan, and a notable over 50% year-on-year growth in AI business revenue [6] - The overall market saw approximately 4,100 stocks decline, with previously hot sectors like energy storage and lithium experiencing corrections due to prior excessive gains and subsequent fund withdrawals [6] Group 4 - The combination of news and capital flow led to a sharp market turn, with the sell-off of Japanese government bonds causing global interest rate fluctuations and the cooling of AI concepts triggering a chain reaction in tech stocks [8] - Foreign investment banks' optimistic outlook contrasts sharply with the short-term panic in the market, suggesting that there may be good earnings support in the coming year, providing a reference point for long-term investors [8] - Investors are advised to closely monitor data, policies, and sentiment, as the market's short-term volatility can be easily amplified, while foreign institutions are betting on a recovery in earnings by 2026 [10]

中概股方面，小鹏汽车跌超3%，阿里巴巴跌超2%，百度集团跌1.35%。 编辑丨心一 11月21日美股盘前，多只AI概念股盘前走低，英伟达跌幅一度扩大至3%，台积电跌2.9%，AMD、甲骨 文跌超2%。 明星科技股多数下跌，苹果、特斯拉、谷歌、微软等盘前走低。 ...

Group 1 - Multiple AI concept stocks declined in pre-market trading, with Nvidia's drop expanding to 3%, TSMC down 2.9%, and AMD and Oracle falling over 2% [1] - Major tech stocks also experienced declines, including Apple, Tesla, Google, and Microsoft, all trading lower in pre-market [2] - In the Chinese concept stock sector, Xpeng Motors fell over 3%, Alibaba dropped over 2%, and Baidu Group decreased by 1.35% [3]

Market Overview - The US stock market experienced significant volatility, leading to a decline in the Hong Kong stock market, with the Hang Seng Index falling by 2.38% to 25,220.02 points and a total trading volume of HKD 285.7 billion [1] - The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index and the Hang Seng Tech Index also saw declines of 2.45% and 3.21%, respectively, with weekly losses of 5.09% and 7.18% [1] - Current market conditions are characterized by a critical digestion phase, with increased short-term volatility due to asset allocation shifts between growth and value stocks, as well as risk and safe-haven assets [1] Blue Chip Performance - Xiaomi Group (01810) rose by 1.01% to HKD 38.08, contributing 10.85 points to the Hang Seng Index, following a record buyback of 13.5 million shares at an average price of HKD 37.61 [2] - Among blue-chip stocks, only four saw gains, with Longfor Group (00960) up 1.43% and China Telecom (00728) up 0.69%, while Xinyi Solar (00968) and Link REIT (00823) faced significant declines [2] Sector Performance - Major technology stocks faced pressure, with Alibaba down 4.65% and Tencent down 1.77%, while AI-related stocks also declined significantly [3] - Lithium stocks experienced sharp declines, with Ganfeng Lithium (01772) down 12.47% and Tianqi Lithium (09696) down 11.93%, following a drop in lithium futures [4] - Cryptocurrency-related stocks fell sharply, with major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum also experiencing significant price drops [5] Gambling Sector - The gambling sector saw collective declines, with Sands China (01928) down 5.97% and MGM China (02282) down 5.73%, amid expectations of a decline in Macau's gaming revenue for the upcoming year [6] - The Macau government projected a total gaming revenue of MOP 236 billion for the next year, reflecting cautious optimism amid external uncertainties [6] Notable Stock Movements - Shide Global (00487) experienced a dramatic drop of 48.25% due to the termination of a service agreement affecting its operations [7] - Link REIT (00823) continued to face pressure, with a decline of 7.47% following a downgrade in earnings forecasts by Bank of America [8]

3、美国9月非农就业数据远超预期，叠加美联储释放"鹰派"信号，导致市场对美联储12月降息的概率预期大幅降至40%以下。这意味着全球流动性宽松预期 受阻，对估值较高的成长股板块形成压制。 来源：股市你金哥 一、今日行情解读： 今天A股弱势调整，三大指数皆有明显下跌。我认为有以下原因： 1、隔夜美股三大指数集体收跌，以科技股为主的纳斯达克指数大跌2.15%。即便英伟达财报超预期，市场也对AI领域的估值泡沫感到担忧，导致其股价高 位回落。这直接拖累了A股半导体、AI应用等相关板块，呈现大跌。 2、美股的悲观情绪蔓延至亚太市场，日经225指数跌超2.3%，韩国综合指数一度跌4%，加剧了全球资本市场的避险氛围。 二、我的策略看法： A股市场短期的偏空面要更多一些，利空波及、获利了结、利润兑现，市场一波接着一波的担忧情绪，致使浮游筹码纷纷抛售，加剧了震荡幅度。 从情况看，我更偏向于现在的调整，是短期、阶段的，并不是长线行情结束的信号。毕竟，这次调整更多阶段涨多了，美联储降息概率下降，美股下跌、 AI估值担忧造成的。可这里面，并不足以击垮A股长线行情。 短线，我继续维持指数在4000点附近震荡的看法。 长线，我继续看多看涨 ...

Market Overview - The global market is experiencing heightened risk aversion, leading to significant volatility in U.S. stocks, with a dramatic drop occurring overnight [1][3] - The Nasdaq Composite Index initially rose over 2.5% but ultimately closed down 2.15%, while the S&P 500 fell by 1.6%, marking the largest intraday reversal since April [4][6] - Over $2 trillion in market capitalization was wiped out in a matter of hours, with the VIX index spiking to 28.27, indicating extreme fear in the market [4][6] Economic Indicators - Recent U.S. economic data has shown a sudden downturn, with employment and service sector indicators cooling, raising concerns about the risk of a hard landing [6] - Hawkish signals from Federal Reserve officials have pushed back expectations for interest rate cuts, leading to instability in funding costs [6] Technology Sector Dynamics - Several major tech companies have reported supply chain issues, resulting in lowered shipment expectations for semiconductors and AI servers, which has triggered selling pressure in the tech sector [6] - Despite fears of an AI bubble, notable short-sellers are now advising against shorting large U.S. tech stocks, suggesting a shift in market sentiment [9][10] Investment Strategies - The CEO of Muddy Waters Capital, Carson Block, warns that the real bubble lies in companies falsely labeled as "AI" that lack solid fundamentals, rather than established leaders like Nvidia [12][13] - Block emphasizes that as long as funds continue to flow into the S&P 500, stocks like Nvidia will receive ongoing support, regardless of high valuations [13][14] - The current market environment is characterized by a "dual fear" where bulls are hesitant to chase prices due to bubble concerns, while bears are reluctant to short due to structural realities [17][18] Future Outlook - The market is currently in a complex state, with uncertainty about future trends, as both upward and downward pressures coexist [19][20] - Investment strategies are shifting towards sectors that ensure survival and profitability, with a focus on traditional industries that have shown resilience [21][22][27]