Group 1: Industrial Profit Trends - In the first four months of 2025, industrial enterprises achieved a total profit of CNY 21,170.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1.4%[3] - The profit growth rate accelerated by 0.6 percentage points compared to the first three months of 2025[3] - In April 2025, profits increased by 3.0% year-on-year, up 0.4 percentage points from March 2025[3] Group 2: Policy Impact and Sector Performance - The "Two New" policies have significantly contributed to the recovery of industrial profits, particularly in high-tech and equipment manufacturing sectors[4] - Specialized equipment and general equipment industries saw profit growth of 13.2% and 11.7% respectively, contributing 0.9 percentage points to overall industrial profit growth[4] - High-tech manufacturing profits grew by 9.0%, surpassing the average industrial growth rate by 7.6 percentage points[6] Group 3: Price and Demand Dynamics - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for industrial products fell by 2.7% year-on-year in April 2025, indicating persistent low prices that hinder profit growth[4] - The revenue profit margin for industrial enterprises was 4.87% in the first four months of 2025, showing a slight recovery but still with significant room for improvement[5] - Industrial profit growth is expected to improve slightly in the second half of 2025, with an annual growth forecast of 2.1%[8] Group 4: Trade and External Factors - The U.S. tariff war is expected to have a controllable impact on overall industrial profits, with an estimated profit loss of CNY 200 billion, accounting for 2.7% of total industrial profits in 2024[8] - Industries with high export exposure to the U.S., such as textiles and footwear, are facing significant pressure, with some experiencing negative growth[8]

证券研究报告 | 宏观深度报告 | 中国宏观 宏观深度报告 报告日期：2025 年 05 月 27 日 工业利润: 新动能引领突出，应对关税战扰动 ——2025 年 1-4 月工业企业盈利数据的背后 核心观点 2025 年 1-4 月工业企业利润延续修复态势， "两新"政策持续发力，新动能行业拉动 工业利润增速作用增强，装备制造业、高技术制造业对利润增长贡献较为显著，积极 应对关税战扰动（部分轻工业承压负增长）。但工业品价格中枢仍处低位，以价换量特 征仍较为显著，工业企业利润增速在价格方面仍有较大改善空间。我们认为，工业企 业利润增速修复的持续性需要有效需求持续助力，同时推动工业品价格合理回升。美 国关税战对工业利润或有所冲击，但在总量层面或较为可控，结构上部分轻工业压力 较大，未来或主要依靠新动能行业持续发力应对。 ❑ "两新"政策持续助力盈利修复，价格偏低是主要拖累 2025 年 1-4 月全国规模以上工业企业实现利润总额 21170.2 亿元，同比增长 1.4%， 利润增速较 1-3 月加快 0.6 个百分点。其中 4 月份，全国规模以上工业企业利润 同比增长 3.0%，较 3 月份加快 0.4 个百分 ...

Group 1 - Musk emphasizes China's impressive talent pool and capabilities, particularly in the AI sector, predicting that by the end of the year, China's power generation will reach 2.5 times that of the US, potentially increasing to 3 to 4 times [1] - The Chinese power industry has diversified from coal to include hydropower, wind, solar, natural gas, and other renewable sources, aiming to become a world-class green low-carbon energy supplier [3] - By 2035, it is projected that clean energy will account for 95% of installed capacity and over 70% of power generation in China, driven by carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals [3] Group 2 - Musk's comments are seen as a challenge to the prevailing narrative in the US, particularly against Trump's administration, which has been engaged in a trade war with China [4] - The US government has issued warnings against the use of Huawei's AI chips, indicating a strategy to hinder China's AI development and maintain technological dominance [6] - Trump's administration has shown a pattern of aggressive trade policies, which have ultimately resulted in negative consequences for American citizens, highlighting the challenges of decoupling from China [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - On Tuesday, the HC2510 contract decreased with increasing positions. The macro situation involves efforts in Europe and the US to avoid an escalation of the situation, and Germany hopes to avoid a tariff war. The supply - demand situation shows that the weekly hot - rolled coil production decreased by 63,000 tons for the second consecutive week, the capacity utilization rate fell below 80%, both factory and social inventories decreased, and the apparent demand decreased by 164,700 tons. On the raw material side, the second round of coke price cuts weakened cost support. Overall, the terminal demand for hot - rolled coils has strong resilience, but the black sector is weak, and there is a lack of confidence in the long - term. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the HC2510 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are running below the 0 - axis. It is recommended to trade with a bearish bias in a volatile market and pay attention to risk control [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the HC main contract is 3,111 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan; the position volume is 1,513,825 hands, up 42,818 hands; the net position of the top 20 in the HC contract is 121,272 hands, up 37,309 hands; the HC10 - 1 contract spread is - 9 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; the HC warehouse receipt at the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 167,722 tons, down 13,109 tons; the HC2510 - RB2510 contract spread is 131 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan [2] 现货市场 - The price of 4.75 hot - rolled coils in Hangzhou is 3,220 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Guangzhou is 3,260 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; in Wuhan is 3,260 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Tianjin is 3,150 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The basis of the HC main contract is 109 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan; the spread between Hangzhou hot - rolled coils and rebar is 100 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port is 736 yuan/wet ton, down 13 yuan; the price of Hebei quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke is 1,450 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan is 2,225 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Hebei Q235 billet is 2,900 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The domestic iron ore port inventory is 139.8783 million tons, down 1.7826 million tons; the coke inventory of sample coking plants is 733,000 tons, up 80,500 tons; the coke inventory of sample steel mills is 6.609 million tons, down 26,200 tons; the Hebei billet inventory is 693,000 tons, down 52,100 tons [2] Industry Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 83.67%, down 0.46 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 91.3%, down 0.44 percentage points. The hot - rolled coil production of sample steel mills is 3.0568 million tons, down 63,000 tons; the capacity utilization rate of hot - rolled coils is 78.09%, down 1.60 percentage points. The hot - rolled coil factory inventory of sample steel mills is 769,200 tons, down 13,000 tons; the social inventory of hot - rolled coils in 33 cities is 2.6327 million tons, down 60,800 tons. The domestic crude steel production is 8.602 million tons, down 682,000 tons; the net export volume of steel is 994,000 tons, down 2,000 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly automobile production is 2.6188 million vehicles, down 387,100 vehicles; the monthly automobile sales are 2.5896 million vehicles, down 325,900 vehicles. The monthly output of air conditioners is 30.833 million units, down 2.8789 million units; the monthly output of household refrigerators is 8.179 million units, down 1.2045 million units; the monthly output of household washing machines is 9.651 million units. In April, global new ship orders totaled 111 ships, 4.532855 million CGT, with Chinese shipyards receiving 55 ships, 2.601584 million CGT, accounting for 57.39% of the total [2] Industry News - On May 26, mainstream steel mills in Hebei and Tianjin proposed a second - round price cut for coke, with wet - quenched coke down 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke down 55 yuan/ton, to be implemented at zero o'clock on May 28 [2]

Group 1 - The core argument of the articles highlights the contradiction in the U.S. government's stance on fentanyl, where it blames China for the crisis while evidence suggests that China's regulations have actually saved lives in the U.S. [1][3] - A recent study indicates that China's 2019 ban on fentanyl exports has prevented nearly a thousand American deaths, challenging the narrative that China is the main culprit behind the fentanyl crisis in the U.S. [3][9] - The U.S. has imposed a 245% tariff on China, claiming it is a measure against fentanyl, but the reality is that the majority of fentanyl in the U.S. comes from Mexican drug cartels, not China [3][5] Group 2 - Despite China's proactive measures, the U.S. has not permanently classified fentanyl as a controlled substance, leading to ongoing issues with opioid prescriptions and misuse within the country [5][7] - The articles argue that the fentanyl crisis in the U.S. is largely a result of internal issues, including the pharmaceutical industry's profit motives and regulatory failures, rather than external factors related to China [7][9] - The economic impact of the trade war, including losses exceeding $1.5 trillion, is contrasted with the lives saved due to China's cooperation in drug control, suggesting that the U.S. has mismanaged the situation [9]

Trade Negotiations - The EU and the US trade negotiations are at a delicate moment, with Germany warning against escalating tariff disputes, stating that increased tariffs would harm German interests [1][4] - German Chancellor Merz emphasized that if negotiations fail, Germany will retaliate against US tariff policies, indicating a readiness to respond if necessary [4][5][8] - The EU is preparing to impose tariffs on $23.9 billion worth of US goods in response to potential US tariffs, with an additional list covering €95 billion of US products as a countermeasure [8] Support for Ukraine - Germany and EU countries will continue to support Ukraine, with no restrictions on the range of weapons supplied, allowing Ukraine to target military objectives within Russia [2][10] - Merz stated that Western countries, including the UK, France, and the US, are providing cruise missiles to Ukraine, and Germany may also join this effort [10] - The German government under Merz is taking a firmer stance on military support for Ukraine compared to the previous administration [10][11] Trade Balance - In 2023, the EU had a trade surplus of €156.6 billion with the US in goods, but a trade deficit of €108.6 billion in services, highlighting the imbalance in trade relations [7]

根据欧盟委员会5月26日声明，美欧双方已就加速贸易谈判达成共识，特朗普政府同意将对欧盟加征 50%关税的期限从原定的6月1日延至7月9日。 这一决定是欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩与特朗普在周日晚上通话后作出的。 报道称，默茨表示完全支持冯德莱恩的应对方式，并重申德国不会单独达成协议而将贸易事务交由欧盟 处理的立场。不过，他也强调必要时欧盟将采取行动。 在距离新关税生效仅剩六周之际，欧盟对美国的态度似乎呈现出"边谈边打"的微妙态势。欧盟一边加速 推进与美国进行贸易谈判，德国总理默茨一边发出警告：若与特朗普政府的贸易冲突升级，欧盟可能对 美国科技公司采取反制措施。 据央视新闻报道，当地时间26日，德国总理默茨表示，德国和其他欧盟国家不希望关税争端升级。从德 国的角度看，加征关税会损害德国的利益，如果欧美谈判无法达成一致，德国没有选择，德国将会对美 国关税政策进行反击。现在的欧美谈判正在努力避免局势升级，德国也希望避免关税战这种情况的出 现。默茨还称，德国需要为欧盟与美国谈判的失败以及其他任何情况做好准备。 此外默茨表示，美国科技公司在欧盟享有有利的税收环境，但这种情况不一定会持续下去，欧盟不希望 与美国陷入关税战升级的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and the EU, highlighting the potential economic impacts and strategic implications of the proposed tariffs and countermeasures. Group 1: U.S.-EU Trade Tensions - The U.S. President threatened to impose a 50% tariff on EU products starting June 1, 2025, which was later postponed to July 9, 2025 [1][2][6] - This situation is referred to as "Tariff War 2.0," indicating a renewed escalation in trade conflicts following a brief period of calm in U.S.-China relations [3][4] - The EU's response to U.S. tariffs is critical, as it is the third-largest economy globally, with approximately 2% of its GDP dependent on U.S. demand [12] Group 2: EU's Countermeasures - The EU has initiated countermeasures against U.S. tariffs, including a detailed list of products worth €95 billion targeted for tariffs, covering various sectors such as aircraft, automobiles, and agricultural products [14][15][16] - The EU's strategy includes not only retaliatory tariffs but also alternative measures like the proposed digital services tax, which could significantly impact U.S. tech companies operating in Europe [20][22] - The EU's internal divisions among member states regarding the response to U.S. tariffs may slow down its reaction, as different countries have varying levels of economic dependence on the U.S. [31][33] Group 3: Strategic Implications - The ongoing trade tensions may provide opportunities for China to strengthen its economic ties with the EU, as both regions navigate their relationships with the U.S. [37][40] - The EU aims to maintain its status as a key ally of the U.S. while also exploring deeper economic relations with China, reflecting a complex geopolitical landscape [41][48] - The article suggests that the EU's internal market barriers could be reduced, potentially enhancing its competitive position against the U.S. [39][37]

Group 1 - The US and China have jointly announced a reduction in tariffs, effectively pausing the ongoing trade war, which has drawn global attention to the geopolitical and economic power dynamics at play [1] - Analysts suggest that the recent agreement indicates that the Trump administration may have overestimated its own strength in the trade negotiations [1] - The communication between US and Chinese officials highlights the importance of maintaining dialogue, despite the simplicity of the statements released by both sides [3] Group 2 - Experts emphasize the necessity of reaching a trade agreement, noting that escalating tariffs would harm both parties' interests [4] - Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, expressed a commitment to deepening engagement in the Chinese capital market, signaling a potential thaw in US-China relations [4] - Following the Geneva trade meeting, the tariff confrontation has reverted to the status prior to April 2, indicating a temporary resolution [6] Group 3 - China's holdings of US Treasury bonds decreased by $18.9 billion in March, continuing a trend of diversifying foreign exchange reserves and reducing reliance on US debt [8] - Since April 2022, China's holdings of US debt have remained below $1 trillion, reflecting a significant shift in investment strategy [8] - The trend of reducing US Treasury holdings and increasing gold reserves has been notable, with China previously holding the position of the largest holder of US debt before being surpassed by Japan in 2019 [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing trade tensions between the US and China, highlighting the temporary pause in tariff increases and the resulting surge in shipping activity and container bookings from China to the US, while also expressing concerns about the long-term implications of these trade disputes [1][2][5]. Group 1: Trade Developments - On May 26, Trump agreed to extend the deadline for imposing a 50% tariff on the EU until July 9, indicating the volatile nature of global trade relations [1]. - Following a temporary halt on high tariffs on May 14, there was a significant increase in container bookings from China to the US, with certain categories like toys and sports goods seeing a 280% increase in bookings [2]. - Shipping companies adjusted prices significantly, with rates from Shanghai to New York increasing by 31.7% and from Shanghai to Long Beach by 22.0% after the temporary trade agreement [4]. Group 2: Economic Implications - The temporary 90-day pause in tariffs has led to increased activity at major ports in Asia, creating new job opportunities as companies rush to ship goods [3][4]. - The article notes that the average tariffs imposed by the US on Chinese imports have risen to 51.1%, while China's tariffs on US goods stand at 32.6%, indicating a significant escalation in trade barriers since the onset of the trade war [5][6]. - The uncertainty surrounding the trade situation continues to challenge businesses, requiring effective operational strategies and investment measures to navigate the prolonged period of instability [6][10]. Group 3: Future Outlook - There is a prevailing concern about whether the trade war will truly end, as the underlying tensions between the two economies remain unresolved [5][6]. - The article emphasizes the need for companies to build resilience in their supply chains and diversify their market strategies to survive in an era dominated by uncertainty [7][9]. - The Chinese government is focusing on stabilizing the economy and expanding high-level openness, which is seen as a significant certainty amid external uncertainties [8][9].