1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - On Wednesday, the futures prices of the container shipping index (European route) declined collectively. The main contract EC2602 closed down 0.68%, and the far - month contracts closed down between 1% - 2%. The latest SCFIS European route settlement freight rate index rebounded 1.46 points from last week, up 0.1% month - on - month. The improvement in the trade war situation and the arrival of the shipping peak season are beneficial to the recovery of futures prices. The geopolitical situation has reached a stalemate, and its impact on freight rates has weakened in the short term. The current freight rate market is mainly affected by seasonal demand. It is recommended that investors be cautious, pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control, and track geopolitical, shipping capacity and cargo volume data in a timely manner [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Data - EC main contract closing price: 1699.800, down 11.7; EC second - main contract closing price: 1124.1, down 6.3. EC2602 - EC2606 spread: 416.10, up 19.3; EC2602 - EC2604 spread: not provided; EC contract basis: - 189.34, down 13.00. EC main contract open interest: 31971, down 512 [1] 3.2 Spot Market Data - SCFIS (US West Line) (weekly): 924.34, down 36.15; SCFIS (European Line) (weekly): 1510.56, up 1.46. SCFI (composite index) (weekly): 1506.46, up 108.83; CCFI (composite index) (weekly): 1118.07, up 3.18; CCFI (European Line) (weekly): 1470.55, up 22.99. Baltic Dry Bulk Index (daily): 2204.00, down 11.00; Panama - type freight index (daily): 1577.00, up 67.00. Average charter price (Cape - size ship): 30050.00, down 1393.00; average charter price (Panama - type ship): not provided. Container ship capacity (10,000 TEUs): 1227.97, up 0.07 [1] 3.3 Industry News - The central economic work conference in 2025 aims to expand domestic demand as the top priority next year, and boost consumption from both supply and demand sides. It also plans to stabilize the real estate market from both ends. The Trump administration threatens to take retaliatory measures against the EU for taxing US technology companies. The eurozone's December manufacturing PMI preliminary value is 49.2, a new low in 8 months; Germany's December manufacturing PMI preliminary value is 47.7, the worst in 10 months; France's manufacturing PMI rises to 50.6, a 40 - month high [1] 3.4 Spot Freight Quotes - Maersk's 52 - week 40 - foot container quote is 2300 US dollars, PA Alliance maintains 2800 - 3000 US dollars, MSC's spot quote is 2640 US dollars, and OA's quote is 2400 - 2700 US dollars. All shipping companies' quotes have increased compared with early December. Maersk plans to raise the 40 - foot container price to 3500 US dollars in January, and MSC plans to raise it to 3700 US dollars [1] 3.5 Geopolitical Situation - The Russia - Ukraine conflict has entered its 4th year, with battlefield confrontations and negotiation games proceeding simultaneously. Western aid to Ukraine has decreased, and the counter - offensive has not made breakthrough progress. The geopolitical conflict remains in a stalemate [1] 3.6 Economic Situation in the Eurozone - The economic climate in the eurozone continues to recover. With the boost of large - scale fiscal stimulus policies, Germany's service industry continues to recover strongly, the composite PMI runs stably above 50, and the inflation sub - item continues the downward trend, creating conditions for the European Central Bank to maintain a "patient wait - and - see" stance [1] 3.7 Key Data to Be Released - UK central bank interest rate decision as of December 18; Eurozone European Central Bank deposit mechanism interest rate as of December 18; US November unadjusted CPI annual rate; US initial jobless claims (in 10,000 people) for the week ending December 13 [1]

Core Viewpoint - It is expected that by 2026, there will be a marginal recovery in household consumption, driven by the implementation of subsidy policies in areas such as childcare and elderly care, along with the wealth effect from rising stock markets [2] Group 1: Economic Context - The "14th Five-Year Plan" aims to significantly increase the household consumption rate, which is defined as the proportion of final household consumption expenditure to GDP [2] - In 2024, China's household consumption rate is projected to be 39.9%, an increase of 4.3 percentage points since 2012, but still about 20 percentage points lower than major developed economies [2] Group 2: Consumption Rate Improvement Strategy - To raise the household consumption rate from 40% to 43% during the "14th Five-Year Plan," an average annual growth rate of 6.5% in household consumption is required, assuming a nominal GDP growth rate of about 5% [4] - The increase in consumption is not merely a temporary measure but a strategic move related to the transformation of the economic development model, emphasizing that consumption should enhance the well-being of citizens rather than being treated as a mere policy tool [4] Group 3: Systematic Approaches to Boost Consumption - Five systematic approaches are proposed to enhance household consumption: 1. Optimize the consumption environment to create a collaborative effort among government, enterprises, and residents [5] 2. Improve the income distribution system to solidify the consumption foundation, focusing on increasing disposable income and enhancing property income [5] 3. Strengthen the social security system to alleviate residents' concerns about future expenditures [5] 4. Relax market access to improve supply quality, which can stimulate entrepreneurial spirit and accelerate the development of service industries [6] 5. Optimize holiday systems to release service consumption potential, thereby balancing supply and demand [6][7] Group 4: Policy Recommendations - Short-term measures require more proactive macroeconomic policies to unleash consumption potential, while long-term strategies depend on reforms in income distribution, social security, and public services to continuously enhance residents' consumption capacity and willingness [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report The HC2605 contract reduced positions and consolidated on Wednesday. The overall terminal demand for hot-rolled coils still shows strong resilience, but high production levels hinder inventory reduction. In the short term, the market is affected by the raw material side and macro expectations, and the market fluctuates within a range. Technically, the 1-hour MACD indicator of the HC2605 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are rebounding from low levels. It is recommended for short-term trading with attention to risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - HC main contract closing price: 3,245 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan [2]. - HC main contract position: 1,199,948 lots, down 6,813 lots [2]. - HC contract top 20 net position: 35,463 lots, up 1,350 lots [2]. - HC1 - 5 contract spread: 10 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [2]. - HC Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt: 131,304 tons, unchanged [2]. - HC2605 - RB2605 contract spread: 161 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Hangzhou 4.75 hot-rolled coil: 3,280 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Guangzhou 4.75 hot-rolled coil: 3,260 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Wuhan 4.75 hot-rolled coil: 3,330 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Tianjin 4.75 hot-rolled coil: 3,180 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - HC main contract basis: 35 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan [2]. - Hangzhou hot-rolled coil - rebar spread: -20 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Qingdao Port 61.5% PB iron ore fines: 785 yuan/wet ton, up 5 yuan [2]. - Hebei quasi-primary metallurgical coke: 1,640 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Tangshan 6 - 8mm scrap steel: 2,140 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Hebei Q235 billet: 2,940 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - 45-port iron ore inventory: 154.2786 million tons, up 1.3152 million tons [2]. - Sample coking plant coke inventory: 499,600 tons, up 55,100 tons [2]. - Sample steel mill coke inventory: 6.3522 million tons, up 99,700 tons [2]. - Hebei billet inventory: 1.1165 million tons, down 16,000 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - 247 steel mill blast furnace operating rate: 78.61%, down 1.53 percentage points [2]. - 247 steel mill blast furnace capacity utilization rate: 85.9%, down 1.16 percentage points [2]. - Sample steel mill hot-rolled coil production: 3.0871 million tons, down 56,000 tons [2]. - Sample steel mill hot-rolled coil capacity utilization rate: 78.86%, down 1.43 percentage points [2]. - Sample steel mill hot-rolled coil factory inventory: 840,300 tons, up 41,100 tons [2]. - 33-city hot-rolled coil social inventory: 3.1306 million tons, down 73,700 tons [2]. - Domestic crude steel production: 69.87 million tons, down 2.13 million tons [2]. - Steel net export volume: 9.484 million tons, up 204,000 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Automobile production: 3.5316 million vehicles, up 172,900 vehicles [2]. - Automobile sales: 3.429 million vehicles, up 106,900 vehicles [2]. - Air conditioner production: 14.204 million units, down 3.8908 million units [2]. - Household refrigerator production: 8.788 million units, down 1.3396 million units [2]. - Household washing machine production: 11.035 million units, down 749,900 units [2]. 3.6 Industry News - Handan launched a level II emergency response for heavy pollution weather on December 14. Three blast furnaces in plate steel mills are under maintenance, and the daily average hot metal output is expected to decrease by about 15,000 tons. Another blast furnace plans to join the maintenance, further affecting the daily average hot metal output [2]. - On December 10, a 1780m³ blast furnace of Tianjin Tiantie began maintenance, affecting the daily average hot metal output by about 6,000 tons, with an expected maintenance period of 34 days [2]. 3.7 Key Points of Concern - Thursday's hot-rolled coil weekly production, in-plant inventory, and social inventory [2].

国债期货日报 2025/12/17 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 项目 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | T主力收盘价 | 108.005 | 0.1% T主力成交量 | 72309 | -4956↓ | | | TF主力收盘价 | 105.840 | 0.06% TF主力成交量 | 56518 | -11258↓ | | | TS主力收盘价 | 102.434 | 0.01% TS主力成交量 | 24444 | -10340↓ | | | TL主力收盘价 | 112.140 | 0.63% TL主力成交量 | 126024 | -22833↓ | | 期货价差 | TL2603-2606价差 | -0.19 | -0.03↓ T03-TL03价差 | -4.14 | -0.65↓ | | | T2603-2606价差 | -0.02 | -0.01↓ TF03-T03价差 | -2.16 | -0.05↓ | | | TF2603-2606价差 | 0.00 | +0.00↑ TS03-T03价差 | -5 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On December 17, 2025, the SM2603 contract was reported at 5,758 yuan/ton, up 0.17%, and the Inner Mongolia silicon - manganese spot was reported at 5,540 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. The central financial office stated that expanding domestic demand is the top - priority task for next year. In terms of fundamentals, inventory is rising rapidly, production is slightly falling from a high level, and inventory has been rising for 11 consecutive weeks. The port inventory of imported manganese ore at the raw material end decreased by 30,000 tons, and the overall molten iron demand is seasonally falling. The Inner Mongolia spot profit is - 250 yuan/ton, and the Ningxia spot profit is - 400 yuan/ton. The steel group's first - round inquiry for silicon - manganese in December is 5,700 yuan/ton, compared with the November pricing of 5,820 yuan/ton. Technically, the daily K - line is between the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile [2]. - On December 17, 2025, the SF2603 contract was reported at 5,546 yuan/ton, up 1.06%, and the Ningxia ferrosilicon spot was reported at 5,250 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton. Most global investment banks predict that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by a cumulative 50 basis points in two rate cuts in 2026. In terms of supply - demand, market transactions are mainly for terminal rigid demand restocking, and the inventory is at a neutral level. The Inner Mongolia spot profit is - 340 yuan/ton, and the Ningxia spot profit is - 490 yuan/ton. In December, the tender price of HBIS 75B ferrosilicon is 5,600 yuan/ton, 80 yuan/ton lower than the previous round. Technically, the daily K - line is between the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - SM main contract closing price: 5,758 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan/ton; SF main contract closing price: 5,546 yuan/ton, up 64 yuan/ton [2]. - SM futures contract open interest: 576,377 lots, down 14,856 lots; SF futures contract open interest: 407,708 lots, down 15,399 lots [2]. - Net positions of the top 20 in SM: - 31,625 lots, down 2,746 lots; net positions of the top 20 in SF: - 33,843 lots, down 2,433 lots [2]. - SM 5 - 1 month contract spread: 60 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton; SF 5 - 1 month contract spread: 62 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton [2]. - SM warehouse receipts: 24,832 pieces, down 200 pieces; SF warehouse receipts: 12,972 pieces, down 96 pieces [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Inner Mongolia manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18: 5,540 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; Inner Mongolia ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B: 5,300 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton [2]. - Guizhou manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18: 5,550 yuan/ton, unchanged; Qinghai ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B: 5,200 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [2]. - Yunnan manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18: 5,570 yuan/ton, unchanged; Ningxia ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B: 5,250 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton [2]. - Manganese - silicon index average (weekly): 5,544 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton; SF main contract basis (daily): - 296 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan/ton [2]. - SM main contract basis (daily): - 218 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - South African ore: Mn38 lump, Tianjin Port: 32 yuan/ton - degree, unchanged; silica (98%, Northwest): 210 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Inner Mongolia Wuhai secondary metallurgical coke: 1,200 yuan/ton, unchanged; semi - coke (medium material, Shenmu): 850 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Manganese ore port inventory (weekly): 448.30 million tons, down 30,000 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Manganese - silicon enterprise operating rate (weekly): 36.85%, up 0.14 percentage points; ferrosilicon enterprise operating rate (weekly): 32.44%, down 1.36 percentage points [2]. - Manganese - silicon supply (weekly): 189,245 tons, up 1,295 tons; ferrosilicon supply (weekly): 106,300 tons, down 2,500 tons [2]. - Manganese - silicon manufacturer inventory (half - monthly): 381,000 tons, up 5,500 tons; ferrosilicon manufacturer inventory (half - monthly): 77,840 tons, up 5,200 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Manganese - silicon inventory days of national steel mills (monthly): 15.84 days, up 0.14 days; ferrosilicon inventory days of national steel mills (monthly): 15.80 days, up 0.13 days [2]. - Manganese - silicon demand of five major steel grades (weekly): 112,787 tons, down 3,804 tons; ferrosilicon demand of five major steel grades (weekly): 18,048 tons, down 718.10 tons [2]. - Blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills (weekly): 78.61%, down 1.53 percentage points; blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills (weekly): 85.90%, down 1.16 percentage points [2]. - Crude steel output (monthly): 69.87 million tons, down 2.127 million tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - The National Development and Reform Commission pointed out in an article in Qiushi magazine that it is necessary to accelerate the improvement of the institutional mechanism for expanding domestic demand, promote the removal of unreasonable restrictive measures on consumption such as automobiles and housing, and establish a management method suitable for new consumption formats, models, and scenarios [2]. - In 2025, many defaulted real - estate enterprises "shook off their historical burdens", with the task of ensuring the delivery of housing projects basically completed and much progress made in debt restructuring. However, many defaulted real - estate enterprises are reluctant to develop a large amount of land acquired at high premiums before 2021 due to reasons such as easy losses in development and outdated planning that does not conform to market trends. Solving the problem of idle land has become a key issue to be explored [2]. - French President Macron called in a column in the Financial Times for the EU to urgently reshape its relationship with China, emphasizing that addressing global economic imbalances will be at the core of France's agenda as the G7 chair next year. He added that the EU should remain open and allow China to invest in areas where it leads [2].

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 主力-连二合约价差:沪铝(日,元/吨) | 21,915.00 -95.00 | +70.00↑ 氧化铝期货主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) +15.00↑ 主力-连二合约价差:氧化铝(日,元/吨) | 2,558.00 -118.00 | +17.00↑ +10.00↑ | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪铝(日,手) | 293,990.00 | +5157.00↑ 主力合约持仓量:氧化铝(日,手) | 180,426.00 | -10459.00↓ | | | LME铝注销仓单(日,吨) | 67,000.00 | 0.00 库存:氧化铝:合计(周,万吨) | 258,836.00 | -1119.00↓ | | 期货市场 | LME电解铝三个月报价（日，美元/吨） | 2,882.50 | +7.50↑ LME铝库存（日，吨） | 519,600.00 | 0.00 | | | 沪铝前20名净持仓（日，手） | - ...

Group 1: Economic Policy and Growth - The central financial office emphasizes that expanding domestic demand is the top priority for economic work in the coming year, with a focus on boosting consumption and stabilizing investment [1][5] - The government plans to implement measures such as income increase plans, optimizing supply, and promoting new demand in tourism and health sectors to stimulate consumption [1][5] - For 2025, the expected economic growth is around 5%, with a total GDP projected to reach 140 trillion yuan, maintaining a leading position among major global economies [5][13] Group 2: Currency and Exchange Rates - On December 15, both offshore and onshore RMB broke the 7.05 mark against the USD, reaching a 14-month high, driven by a weakening dollar index and increased year-end corporate settlement demand [9] - The current exchange rate management aims to align the currency with economic fundamentals and create a stable environment for foreign trade, rather than promoting rapid appreciation [9] Group 3: Industry Challenges and Trends - In the medical equipment procurement sector, there is a rising trend of companies abandoning bids due to intense price competition and low profit margins, indicating a need for regulation to ensure healthy industry development [2][10] - The photovoltaic industry is facing overcapacity and declining demand, prompting companies to explore energy storage as a "second growth curve," with significant growth expected in storage demand starting in the second half of 2025 [3][11] - The banking sector is experiencing a significant reduction in physical branches, with over 16,000 branches closing from 2023 to 2025, as banks shift focus to digital transformation and financial technology investments [6][14] Group 4: Financial Products and Consumer Behavior - Recent announcements from several banks regarding stricter management of personal precious metal trading highlight the increasing importance of investor suitability management in the face of market volatility [4][12] - The credit card market is undergoing a structural transformation, with nearly 100 million cards issued in the past three years, as younger consumers move away from credit cards, leading to increased focus on value creation and integration of card and loan services [7][16]

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 108,620.00 | +8020.00↑ 前20名净持仓（日，手） | -177,850.00 | -8717.00↓ | | 期货市场 | 主力合约持仓量（日，手） | 668,589.00 | +2562.00↑ 近远月合约价差（日，元/吨） | -1,400.00 | +80.00↑ | | | 广期所仓单（日，手/吨） | 15,636.00 | +350.00↑ | | | | 现货市场 | 电池级碳酸锂平均价（日，元/吨） | 97,050.00 | +1200.00↑ 工业级碳酸锂平均价（日，万元/吨） | 94,450.00 | +1100.00↑ | | | Li₂CO₃主力合约基差（日，元/吨） | -11,570.00 | -6820.00↓ | | | | 上游情况 | 锂辉石精矿(6%CIF中国)平均价（日，美元/吨） | 1,230.00 | +20.00↑ 磷锂铝石平均价（日，元 ...

1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is available in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The main contract of沪铜shows a fluctuating trend, with an increase in open interest, a spot discount, and a weaker basis. In the raw material aspect of the fundamentals, the spot processing fee index of copper concentrates remains at a low negative level, and the expectation of tight ore supply will have a long - lasting effect on the copper smelting end, providing cost support. In terms of supply, the price of sulfuric acid, a by - product of smelting, is still relatively good, making up for some profit losses of smelters. Although the operating rate of smelters has rebounded due to the resumption of production after previous maintenance, the increase is only slight due to raw material shortages. In terms of demand, boosted by macro - expectations, the copper price has been strong in the short term, but the high price has suppressed the purchasing sentiment of downstream buyers, who have become more cautious, and social inventories have slightly accumulated. In the options market, the call - put ratio of at - the - money option positions is 1.26, a month - on - month increase of 0.0111, indicating a bullish sentiment in the options market, and the implied volatility has slightly increased. Technically, for the 60 - minute MACD, the two lines are below the 0 - axis and the red bars are expanding. The report suggests light - position short - term long - buying at low prices, while paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of沪铜is 92,820 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 900 yuan. The price of LME 3 - month copper is 11,680 dollars/ton, a daily increase of 88 dollars. The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract is - 70 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 20 yuan. The open interest of the main contract of沪铜is 223,974 lots, a daily increase of 6,600 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures holders of沪铜is - 32,306 lots, a daily increase of 1,775 lots. The LME copper inventory is 166,600 tons, a daily increase of 725 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of cathode copper is 89,389 tons, a weekly increase of 484 tons. The LME copper cancelled warrants are 64,400 tons, a daily decrease of 1,000 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts of cathode copper are 44,877 tons, a daily decrease of 2,856 tons. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of SMM 1 copper spot is 92,145 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 445 yuan. The price of 1 copper spot in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 92,285 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 290 yuan. The CIF (Bill of Lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 48 dollars/ton, unchanged. The average premium of Yangshan copper is 45.5 dollars/ton, a daily increase of 2.5 dollars. The basis of the CU main contract is - 675 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 455 yuan. The LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread is - 9.52 dollars/ton, a daily decrease of 5.13 dollars. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ores and concentrates is 245.15 million tons, a monthly decrease of 13.56 million tons. The TC of domestic copper smelters is - 43.08 dollars/thousand tons, a weekly decrease of 0.22 dollars. The price of copper concentrates in Jiangxi is 82,200 yuan/metal ton, a daily decrease of 460 yuan. The price of copper concentrates in Yunnan is 82,900 yuan/metal ton, a daily decrease of 460 yuan. The processing fee of blister copper in the south is 1,400 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 100 yuan. The processing fee of blister copper in the north is 1,000 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 100 yuan. [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The output of refined copper is 120.4 million tons, a monthly decrease of 6.2 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 427,000 tons, a monthly decrease of 13,000 tons. The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, a weekly increase of 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai is 62,790 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 300 yuan. [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 970 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 76,750 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 350 yuan. The output of copper products is 200.4 million tons, a monthly decrease of 22.8 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure construction is 482.434 billion yuan, a monthly increase of 44.627 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 7859.1 billion yuan, a monthly increase of 502.83 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4.39 million pieces, a monthly increase of 213,000 pieces. [2] 3.6 Options Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of沪铜is 18%, a daily increase of 0.13%. The 40 - day historical volatility of沪铜is 17.2%, a daily increase of 0.11%. The implied volatility of the at - the - money option in the current month is 18.15%, a daily increase of 0.0117. The call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.26, a daily increase of 0.0111. [2] 3.7 Industry News - The relevant person in charge of the Central Financial and Economic Affairs Office explained the spirit of the 2025 Central Economic Work Conference, stating that expanding domestic demand is the top priority next year, and efforts should be made to boost consumption from both supply and demand sides, and coordinate to boost consumption and expand investment. In addition, efforts should be made to stabilize the real estate market from both supply and demand sides next year. On the supply side, new supply should be strictly controlled, existing inventory should be revitalized, and inventory digestion should be accelerated. On the demand side, more targeted measures should be taken to fully release the rigid and improvement - oriented housing demand of residents. - According to China Securities Journal, the core tone of the implementation of monetary policy in 2025 has always been "supportive". Looking forward to 2026, this tone is expected to continue. The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, adhere to precise policies and coordinated efforts, flexibly use tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts to promote the low - level operation of the comprehensive social financing cost. It will also better use structural monetary policy tools to precisely support key areas and weak links of the real economy. In addition, it will continue to explore and expand the central bank's macro - prudential and financial stability functions, maintain the stability of the financial market, and firmly hold the bottom line of preventing systemic financial risks. - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released data showing that the number of non - farm payrolls in the United States increased by 64,000 in November, higher than the market expectation of 50,000, but the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.6%, reaching a new high since September 2021. In addition, non - farm payrolls in October decreased significantly by 105,000, far exceeding the expected decrease of 25,000, and the figures for August and September were also revised down by a total of 33,000. The average hourly wage in November increased by 3.5% year - on - year, the lowest growth rate since May 2021. - The preliminary value of the U.S. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in December dropped to 51.8, a five - month low. The preliminary value of the Services PMI dropped from 54.1 to 52.9, and the preliminary value of the Composite PMI dropped to 53, all reaching six - month lows. [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - On December 17, the JM2605 contract closed at 1062.0, up 0.33%. The spot price of Tangshan Mongolian No. 5 coking coal was reported at 1320, equivalent to 1100 on the futures market. Fundamentally, the number of customs - cleared vehicles from Mongolia remained high at the end of the year, and the inventory at Ganqimaodu Port had reached 329 tons. Technically, the daily K - line was below the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages, with a short - term outlook of weak and volatile movement [2]. - On December 17, the J2601 contract closed at 1530.5, up 1.93%. The spot price had a second - round price cut. Macroscopically, measures would be taken to stabilize the real estate market from both supply and demand sides next year. Fundamentally, the pig iron output decreased by 3.10 tons to 229.20 tons this period, and the coke inventory was moderately weak. Technically, the daily K - line was below the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages, with a short - term outlook of weak and volatile movement [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - JM main contract closing price was 1062.00 yuan/ton, down 5.50 yuan; J main contract closing price was 1530.50 yuan/ton, up 16.00 yuan [2]. - JM futures contract holdings were 708494.00 lots, down 27677.00 lots; J futures contract holdings were 41588.00 lots, down 1248.00 lots [2]. - Net holdings of the top 20 JM contracts were - 49451.00 lots, down 13994.00 lots; net holdings of the top 20 J contracts were 749.00 lots, down 163.00 lots [2]. - JM 5 - 1 month contract spread was 91.50 yuan/ton, down 2.50 yuan; J 5 - 1 month contract spread was 133.00 yuan/ton, down 22.50 yuan [2]. - JM warehouse receipts were 200.00 pieces, unchanged; J warehouse receipts were 2070.00 pieces, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of Ganqimaodu Mongolian No. 5 raw coal was 970.00 yuan/ton, up 30.00 yuan; the price of Tangshan Grade I metallurgical coke was 1775.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of Russian prime coking coal forward spot (CFR) was 160.00 US dollars/wet ton, down 1.50 US dollars; the price of Rizhao Port quasi - Grade I metallurgical coke was 1570.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of imported prime coking coal from Australia at Jingtang Port was 1490.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Grade I metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1670.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of prime coking coal produced in Shanxi at Jingtang Port was 1630.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of quasi - Grade I metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1570.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of medium - sulfur prime coking coal in Jinzhong, Shanxi was 1610.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; J main contract basis was 244.50 yuan/ton, down 16.00 yuan [2]. - The ex - factory price of coking coal produced in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia was 1350.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; JM main contract basis was 548.00 yuan/ton, up 5.50 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The daily output of clean coal from 314 independent coal washing plants was 27.30 million tons, down 0.60 million tons; the weekly inventory of clean coal from 314 independent coal washing plants was 327.30 million tons, down 5.10 million tons [2]. - The weekly capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plants was 0.38%, down 0.01%; the monthly raw coal output was 42679.00 million tons, up 2004.00 million tons [2]. - The monthly import volume of coal and lignite was 4405.30 million tons, up 231.30 million tons; the daily average output of raw coal from 523 coking coal mines was 189.80 million tons, down 0.60 million tons [2]. - The weekly inventory of imported coking coal at 16 ports was 481.60 million tons, up 11.00 million tons; the weekly inventory of coke at 18 ports was 248.60 million tons, up 2.80 million tons [2]. - The weekly total inventory of coking coal of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 1037.30 million tons, up 28.10 million tons; the weekly inventory of coke of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 87.32 million tons, up 10.88 million tons [2]. - The weekly inventory of coking coal of 247 steel mills nationwide was 794.65 million tons, down 3.62 million tons; the weekly inventory of coke of 247 sample steel mills was 635.28 million tons, up 10.03 million tons [2]. - The weekly available days of coking coal of all - sample independent coking enterprises were 12.82 days, down 0.06 days; the weekly available days of coke of 247 sample steel mills were 11.66 days, up 0.37 days [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of coking coal was 1059.32 million tons, down 33.04 million tons; the monthly export volume of coke and semi - coke was 0.00 million tons, down 73.00 million tons [2]. - The monthly output of coking coal was 4231.51 million tons, up 255.59 million tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises was 73.16%, down 0.68% [2]. - The weekly profit per ton of coke of independent coking plants was 44.00 yuan/ton, up 14.00 yuan; the monthly output of coke was 4170.00 million tons, down 19.60 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills nationwide was 78.61%, down 1.53%; the weekly blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 85.90%, down 1.16% [2]. - The monthly output of crude steel was 6987.00 million tons, down 212.70 million tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - The National Development and Reform Commission stated in an article in Qiushi Journal that it would accelerate the improvement of the system and mechanism for expanding domestic demand and promote the removal of unreasonable restrictions on consumption such as automobiles and housing [2]. - In 2025, many defaulted real - estate enterprises basically completed the task of ensuring the delivery of housing projects, and made progress in debt restructuring. However, they were reluctant to develop a large amount of land acquired at high premiums before 2021 [2]. - French President Macron called on the EU to reshape its relationship with China and emphasized that addressing global economic imbalances would be the core of France's agenda as the G7 chair next year [2].