1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The platinum market faces a structural shortage, with supply contraction in South Africa, stable demand from automotive exhaust catalysts, and incremental demand from the hydrogen energy industry and jewelry sector. The global platinum market's core contradiction lies in the high dependence on South Africa for supply (accounting for over 70% of production in 2024), but reduced capital expenditure and low recycling have led to a continuous supply contraction (CAGR of -1% from 2015 - 2025). On the demand side, automotive exhaust catalysts (accounting for 43% in 2024) provide a rigid foundation, and the rapid growth of plug - in hybrid vehicles still requires PGM catalysts. The hydrogen energy industry and gold substitution (high gold prices driving platinum jewelry consumption) offer elastic growth [3]. - The influx of risk - averse funds and continuous supply disruptions have led to a continuous increase in platinum prices. Geopolitical conflicts have strengthened the financial attribute of platinum, attracting risk - averse funds. Supply disruptions have also played a catalytic role. In Q1 2025, platinum mine supply decreased by 13% year - on - year (-117,000 ounces) due to factors such as heavy rainfall and floods in South African mining areas, low smelting capacity utilization in South Africa and Zimbabwe, and mine restructuring in North America. The high gold - platinum ratio in history indicates an undervaluation of platinum's value, which may attract value investment. However, the recent continuous rise in platinum prices still depends on market consensus. If the consensus is strengthened, the value center has room for continuous upward movement, and platinum's value fluctuations largely depend on market sentiment [3]. - Investment advice: On the supply side, short - term production cuts in South Africa cause supply fluctuations, and inventory is currently at a low level. In the long - term, low capital expenditure leads to supply contraction, and high supply concentration poses certain risks. On the demand side, traditional industrial demand is relatively stable, and the rapid growth of plug - in hybrid vehicles still requires PGM catalysts. High gold prices promote platinum substitution in the jewelry field. It is recommended to focus on the "resources + technology" line and pay attention to relevant companies [3]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Platinum Metal Properties and Industrial Chain Structure - Platinum group metals include platinum, palladium, rhodium, etc., with high melting points, high strength, excellent thermoelectric stability, high - temperature oxidation resistance, and corrosion resistance. Platinum and palladium have strong gas adsorption capacity and excellent catalytic properties, and are widely used in automotive exhaust catalysts, jewelry, electronic components, and chemical catalysts [8]. 3.2 Supply - Demand Contradictions Are Prominent, and Structural Shortage Intensifies Supply - Platinum ore supply is relatively concentrated, with South Africa accounting for about 70% of production. In 2024, global platinum ore production was 170 tons, with South Africa producing 120 tons, accounting for 70.6% of the global total. In terms of reserves, South Africa accounted for 88.73% of the global platinum - group metal reserves in 2023. Due to reduced capital expenditure in platinum ore projects and low recycling enthusiasm in the past decade, the total platinum supply is expected to fall below 7 million ounces in 2025, with a CAGR of -1% from 2015 - 2025 [13]. Demand - Platinum has obvious industrial attributes, and automotive exhaust purification demand accounts for about 40%. In 2024, the demand for platinum in automotive exhaust purification accounted for 43%. The hydrogen energy industry may become a future trend, and the growth of hybrid vehicle demand will also bring benefits. Although the demand for platinum in the automotive field is expected to remain high in the long - term, economic prospects are still uncertain [19]. - Jewelry demand has a small base but considerable elastic space. High gold prices have affected gold jewelry demand, and platinum jewelry is expected to fill the gap. The gold - platinum ratio exceeded 3 in February 2025 and回调 to about 2.46 as of July 1. According to WPIC, the year - end inventory is expected to drop sharply, leading to a tightening of market supply, and platinum may become a hedging product [24]. 3.3 Influx of Risk - Averse Funds + Continuous Supply Disruptions, Platinum Prices Rise Continuously - Platinum prices have shown a strong upward trend recently, with an increase of about 34% in the past two months, reaching a high level in the past 10 years. Future price trends still need to pay attention to the impact of economic data on precious metal prices [28]. - Supply disruptions and the gold substitution effect have led to the recent rise in platinum prices. On the supply side, South Africa, which supplies about 70% of platinum production, has been affected by bad weather, restricting mining and refining operations, and recycling metal supply is also at a low level. On the demand side, in addition to the basic demand for platinum as an automotive exhaust catalyst, the substitution effect of platinum jewelry for gold jewelry is obvious, and investment demand and the hedging attribute of platinum have attracted investors. The hydrogen energy concept also gives platinum a certain bullish attribute [31]. - The gold - platinum ratio is at a historical high, and the future price center still depends on market consensus. Gold and platinum prices diverged about a decade ago, with gold's financial attribute becoming prominent while platinum focused on industrial attributes. Around 2013, platinum prices recovered due to supply contraction, increased industrial and investment demand, and a shift in market sentiment. Currently, the gold - platinum ratio is at a historical high, and platinum is undervalued. Whether it can attract value investment depends on market consensus, and platinum's value fluctuations largely depend on market sentiment [38]. 3.4 Core Targets: Guiyan Platinum Industry, Haotong Technology, Huayang New Materials Guiyan Platinum Industry - The company focuses on the manufacturing of precious metal new materials and has established a complete industrial chain system. It has built a precious metal resource recycling industry, carried out full - life - cycle management of precious metals, and established a precious metal supply service platform. It has formed a closed - loop industrial chain from precious metal supply, product processing to waste recycling [48]. - The company has strong R & D capabilities and independent innovation. Relying on the research and development foundation of the State Key Laboratory of New Technologies for Comprehensive Utilization of Rare and Precious Metals and the Kunming Institute of Precious Metals, it has continuously made breakthroughs in high - end materials such as precious metal precursor materials, catalytic materials, and electronic pastes. In 2024, the production of precious metal precursor products increased by more than 20% year - on - year, and the profit of precious metal electronic pastes increased by more than 30% year - on - year [48]. Haotong Technology - The company's three major business segments develop synergistically, and its full - chain service has created core competitiveness. It focuses on the precious metal recycling field, and its business includes precious metal recycling, new materials mainly composed of precious metals, and trade. It has formed a closed - loop from raw material supply to new material manufacturing and recycling, meeting customers' cyclical needs [51]. - The company has leading core technologies. Its independently developed platinum dissolution solution enrichment technology and other technologies are at the international leading level, and its sponge platinum products have a high reputation in the industry. It has advantages in environmental protection, safety, and cost, providing customers with more competitive prices [51]. Huayang New Materials - The company is supported by state - owned enterprise resources and has a full - industrial - chain layout. As a provincial - level state - owned enterprise in Shanxi, it has natural advantages in order acquisition, policy support, and resource approval. Its subsidiary, Huashengfeng Company, is the first domestic precious metal recycling and processing enterprise for producing platinum catalytic nets for nitric acid production. The company also has an industrial chain advantage in "PBAT - modified materials - products" [57]. - As of July 17, 2025, the PE - TTM of Guiyan Platinum Industry, Huayang New Materials, and Haotong Technology were 20, - 62, and 35 times respectively, and the PB were 1.66, 23.88, and 2.81 times respectively. With the rise in platinum prices, relevant companies are expected to improve their performance and digest valuations. According to institutional consensus forecasts, Guiyan Platinum Industry's net profit attributable to the parent company in 2025, 2026, and 2027 will be 696 million yuan, 826 million yuan, and 955 million yuan respectively, corresponding to PE of 16.9, 14.2, and 12.3 times at the current stock price [58].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The medium - to long - term outlook for precious metals is bullish. In the short term, the fluctuation of London gold continues to narrow. Attention should be paid to the support at the 3300 level and the resistance at 3380, as well as the short - term direction selection. The support for London silver is around 37.3, and the resistance is 38.4. The operation strategy is to buy on dips [2][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Thursday, the precious metals market saw gold and silver oscillating, while platinum and palladium had significant gains and both reached new recent highs. The US dollar index, after a continuous rebound, is facing key resistances at 99 and 100. The 10 - year US Treasury yield is approaching the 4.5% watershed. The surrounding US stocks rose, Bitcoin oscillated, crude oil oscillated, and the South China Non - ferrous Metals Index rose. COMEX gold 2508 contract closed at $3345.4 per ounce, down 0.41%; US silver 2509 contract closed at $38.435 per ounce, up 0.83%. SHFE gold 2510 main contract was at 776.28 yuan per gram, down 0.03%; SHFE silver 2510 contract was at 9166 yuan per kilogram, up 0.07%. US economic data briefly triggered hawkish concerns from the Fed, causing a decline in precious metals prices during the session, but they quickly recovered and rose [2]. 3.2 Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - Interest rate cut expectations have slightly cooled. According to CME "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 97.4%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 2.6%. For September, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 46.9%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 51.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 1.3%. For October, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 23.9%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 49.4%, the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 26.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 - basis - point cut is 0.7%. The SPDR Gold ETF's holdings decreased by 2.29 tons to 948.5 tons, and the iShares Silver ETF's holdings decreased by 124.34 tons to 14694.95 tons. SHFE silver inventory increased by 4.3 tons to 1217.1 tons, and SGX silver inventory increased by 7.3 tons to 1327.2 tons as of the week ending July 11 [3]. 3.3 This Week's Focus - Attention should be paid to the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in the evening [3]. 3.4 Precious Metals Spot and Futures Price Table - The table shows the latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of SHFE gold and silver main contracts, SGX gold and silver TD, CME gold and silver main contracts, SHFE - TD gold and silver, and CME gold - silver ratio [6]. 3.5 Inventory and Position Table - It presents the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of SHFE and CME gold and silver inventories, SHFE gold and silver positions, SPDR gold position, and SLV silver position [16][17]. 3.6 Stock, Bond, and Commodity Summary - The table shows the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of the US dollar index, US dollar against the Chinese yuan, Dow Jones Industrial Average, WTI crude oil spot, LmeS copper 03, 10 - year US Treasury yield, 10 - year US real interest rate, and 10 - 2 - year US Treasury yield spread [22].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the contrasting fates of gold and platinum over the years, highlighting the recent surge in platinum prices and the growing interest from investors and consumers in the platinum market [1][2][4]. Price Trends - In 2005, platinum prices were nearly double that of gold, but by 2020, platinum prices had fallen to just over half of gold's price [2][3]. - Currently, the spot price of gold has risen to $3,500 per ounce, while platinum is at approximately 40% of that level [4]. - Since May of this year, platinum prices have experienced a significant increase, with a rise of over 50% year-to-date, outpacing gold's 27% increase and silver's 30% increase [6]. Market Dynamics - The increase in platinum prices has led to a surge in demand from investors, wholesalers, and consumers, with many new platinum jewelry counters appearing in various markets [10][19]. - The price difference between gold and platinum is significant, with gold priced at 781 RMB per gram and platinum at 342 RMB per gram, creating a gap of over 500 RMB per gram [15]. Consumer Behavior - There has been a notable increase in the number of stores selling platinum jewelry, with some businesses shifting focus from other products to capitalize on the rising interest in platinum [17][19]. - Platinum jewelry is primarily categorized into pure platinum and platinum combined with cultivated diamonds, with pricing varying significantly based on design and quality [20]. Supply and Demand Factors - The recent rise in platinum prices is attributed to reduced supply from South Africa due to mine closures and layoffs, alongside increased demand for platinum jewelry as gold prices remain high [24][25]. - The World Platinum Investment Council forecasts a shortage of 31 tons in the global platinum market in 2024, with jewelry demand increasing by 8% and investment demand soaring by 77% [25]. Future Outlook - The long-term supply of platinum is constrained due to the lengthy mining cycle, which typically spans 5-7 years, limiting immediate increases in production [26]. - While some analysts see potential for platinum prices to rise further, others caution that platinum's investment attributes are not as strong as gold's, leading to uncertainty in the platinum investment market [26].

Group 1 - Citigroup has significantly raised its silver price forecast, expecting silver to exceed $40 per ounce in the coming months due to tightening physical supply and increasing investment demand [1] - The three-month target price for silver has been increased from $38 to $40, and the six to twelve-month target price has been raised to $43 [1] - Analysts predict that silver supply will further tighten amid several years of supply deficits [1] Group 2 - In contrast to silver, Citigroup maintains its unchanged forecast for gold, reiterating that a peak may have already been reached, with expectations that gold prices will fall below $3,000 next year [1][6] - Precious metals have performed strongly this year, with gold reaching an all-time high and increasing by over 25%, while silver has seen a year-to-date increase of 31% [1] - The fundamental supply-demand dynamics support the bullish outlook for silver, with expectations of tighter supply due to previous deficits and strong investment demand [6]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On July 14, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed up 1.06% to 781.4 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed up 2.11% to 9207 yuan/kg [5]. - Trump's "Reciprocal Tariffs 2.0" boosts the demand for precious metals and stimulates their prices. The silver price has risen strongly due to factors such as the technical breakthrough and the expected recovery of overseas manufacturing, with the COMEX silver breaking through $39 per ounce and the Shanghai silver main contract breaking through 9200 yuan/kg [5]. - In the short - term, tariff risks may support the precious metals prices to remain strong, especially silver. In the long - term, considering the background of trade war, the probability of the Fed's interest rate cut, global geopolitical uncertainties, and central bank gold purchases, the long - term upward trend of gold remains unchanged, and the strategy of buying on dips is recommended [5]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Data - **Spot and Futures Prices**: On July 14, 2025, London gold spot was $3367.33 per ounce, London silver spot was $38.90 per ounce, COMEX gold was $3380.10 per ounce, and COMEX silver was $39.31 per ounce. Compared with July 11, gold prices rose by about 1.1% and silver prices rose by 3.5% - 4.3%. The AU2508 contract was 778.98 yuan/gram, and the AG2508 contract was 9179 yuan/kg, with increases of 1.0% - 1.8% [5]. - **Price Spreads and Ratios**: The gold TD - SHFE active price spread on July 14 was - 2.18 yuan/gram, with a 18.5% change compared to July 11. The silver TD - SHFE active price spread was - 3 yuan/kg, with a - 40.0% change. The gold and silver price ratios also had corresponding changes [5]. Position Data - **ETF and COMEX Positions**: As of July 11, 2025, the gold ETF - SPDR held 947.64 tons, with a - 0.12% change compared to July 10. The silver ETF - SLV held 14758.51984 tons, with a - 0.88% change. COMEX non - commercial long and short positions of gold and silver also had different degrees of changes [5]. Inventory Data - **SHFE and COMEX Inventories**: On July 14, 2025, SHFE gold inventory was 28857 kg, a 17.38% increase compared to July 11. SHFE silver inventory was 1223982 kg, a - 6.11% decrease. COMEX gold and silver inventories also had slight decreases [5]. Interest Rate, Exchange Rate and Stock Market Data - **Exchange Rates and Indexes**: On July 14, 2025, the dollar/yuan central parity rate was 7.15, with a 0.02% change compared to July 11. The dollar index was 97.87, with a 0.29% increase. The yields of 2 - year and 10 - year US Treasuries also increased, and the VIX increased by 3.93% [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report The medium - to long - term trend of precious metals may be bullish, but short - term fluctuations will intensify. It is recommended to control positions and maintain the idea of buying on dips [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Monday, the precious metals market fluctuated sharply. Silver rose and then fell, platinum declined significantly, and palladium had a wide trading range. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields rose, the US stock market fluctuated, Bitcoin rose and then fell, crude oil prices dropped, and the South China Non - ferrous Metals Index fluctuated. COMEX gold 2508 contract closed at $3352.1 per ounce, down 0.35%; US silver 2509 contract closed at $38.41 per ounce, down 1.4%. SHFE gold 2510 main contract was 781.4 yuan/gram, up 1.06%; SHFE silver 2510 contract was 9207 yuan/kg, up 2.11% [2]. 3.2 Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - Interest rate cut expectations have slightly cooled. According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in July is 94.8%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 5.2%. In September, the probability of unchanged rates is 36.9%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 60%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 3.2%. In October, the probability of unchanged rates is 14.8%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 46.1%, the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 37.2%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 - basis - point cut is 1.9% [3]. - In terms of long - term funds, the daily holdings of SPDR Gold ETF remained at 947.64 tons; the holdings of iShares Silver ETF increased by 207.72 tons to 14966.24 tons. SHFE silver inventory decreased by 79.6 tons to 1224 tons daily; as of the week ending July 4, SGX silver inventory decreased by 3.3 tons to 1319.9 tons weekly [3]. 3.3 This Week's Focus - This week, the focus in terms of data is on the US CPI data on Tuesday evening. In terms of events, domestically, at 10:00 on Tuesday, the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on the economic performance in the first half of 2025. Overseas, at 14:45 on Tuesday, 2025 FOMC voter and Boston Fed President Collins will give a speech; at 21:45, Fed Governor Bowman will give a welcome speech at a Fed - hosted conference. At 00:45 on Wednesday, Fed Governor Barr will speak at a Fed - hosted conference; at 02:45, 2025 FOMC voter and Boston Fed President Collins will give a speech; at 04:00, Bank of England Governor Bailey will speak. At 02:00 on Thursday, the Fed will release the Beige Book of Economic Conditions; at 05:30, FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams will speak on the US economy and monetary policy. In addition, US President Trump plans to make a "major statement" on the Russian issue this week [4]. 3.4 Precious Metals Price and Inventory Data - Precious metals futures and spot price table shows the latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of various precious metals contracts such as SHFE gold, SGX gold TD, CME gold, etc. [6]. - Inventory and position table shows the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of SHFE and CME gold and silver inventories and positions, as well as the holdings of SPDR gold and SLV silver ETFs [15][16]. 3.5 Stock, Bond, and Commodity Overview - The table shows the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of the US dollar index, US dollar against the Chinese yuan, Dow Jones Industrial Average, WTI crude oil spot, LmeS copper 03, 10 - year US Treasury yield, 10 - year US real interest rate, and 10 - 2 - year US Treasury yield spread [23].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View - The Fed's expected rate cut is delayed, but due to the slower - than - expected debt issuance pace of the US Treasury, continuous gold purchases by central banks worldwide, and unresolved geopolitical risks, precious metal prices are likely to rise and difficult to fall. Investors are advised to buy on dips. [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metal Market Data - **Gold**: Shanghai gold futures' closing price was 771.30 yuan/g, with a change of 2.26 yuan compared to the previous day and 0.26 yuan compared to the previous week. COMEX gold futures' closing price was 3333.00 dollars/ounce, with a change of 37.30 dollars compared to the previous week. London gold spot price was 3335.70 dollars/ounce, with a change of 39.50 dollars compared to the previous week. [1] - **Silver**: Shanghai silver futures' closing price was 8872.00 yuan/ten - grams, with a change of 121.00 yuan compared to the previous week. COMEX silver futures' closing price was 2.29 dollars/ounce, with a change of 39.08 dollars compared to the previous week. London silver spot price was 36.31 dollars/ounce, with a change of 0.69 dollars compared to the previous week. [1] - **Price Ratios**: The ratio of Shanghai gold futures to Shanghai silver futures was 85.57, with a change of - 1.37 compared to the previous week. The ratio of London gold spot to London silver spot was 91.88, with a change of - 2.49 compared to the previous week. [1] Important News - **US Policy**: The Trump administration plans to impose a 30% tariff on Mexico and the EU starting August 1st. The US Treasury plans to increase its cash reserves to 50 billion and 85 billion dollars by the end of July and September respectively, through increasing the weekly benchmark Treasury issuance scale. [1] - **Central Bank Policies**: The Fed's July rate - cut probability is low due to higher - than - expected non - farm payrolls in June, but the expected rate - cut time is still September/December. The European Central Bank cut rates by 25 basis points in June, and the market expects 1 - 2 more rate cuts by the end of 2025. The Bank of England cut its key rate by 25 basis points in June, and there is an increasing expectation of rate cuts in August and 2 - 3 rate cuts by the end of 2025. The Bank of Japan raised rates by 25 basis points in January and may reduce quarterly Treasury purchases from 400 billion to 200 billion yen in April 2026. [1] Trading Strategy - Investors are advised to buy on dips. For London gold, focus on the support level around 3150 - 3250 dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 3500 - 3700 dollars/ounce. For Shanghai gold, focus on the support level around 730 - 750 yuan/g and the resistance level around 840 - 900 yuan/g. For London silver, focus on the support level around 34 - 35 dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 38 - 40 dollars/ounce. For Shanghai silver, focus on the support level around 830 - 8600 yuan/ten - grams and the resistance level around 9000 - 10000 yuan/ten - grams. [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the surge in precious metal prices amid global economic uncertainty, leading to increased criminal activities targeting gold and silver concentrates [1][6]. Group 1: Criminal Activities - A truck carrying 33 tons of gold and silver concentrates was hijacked in Mexico, with the truck recovered but the trailer still missing [2][5]. - The stolen precious metals belong to Grupo Minero Bacis, and the incident reflects a rise in highway robberies in Mexico, occurring approximately every 50 minutes [6]. Group 2: Precious Metal Prices - In the past two weeks, silver prices have risen significantly, with international silver futures surpassing $38 per ounce, marking a nearly 14-year high [3][6]. - Domestic silver prices have also increased, with spot T+D prices closing at 9028 yuan per kilogram on July 11, while gold prices remained stable, closing at 769.30 yuan per gram [6]. Group 3: Company Performance - Companies like Zhongjin Gold, Hunan Gold, and Western Gold have forecasted substantial profit increases for the first half of 2025, with Zhongjin Gold and Western Gold expecting over 50% growth [4][8]. - Hunan Gold anticipates a net profit of 613 million to 701 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 40% to 60% [8]. Group 4: Market Trends - Global gold ETFs saw an increase of $38 billion in the first half of the year, with central banks continuing to purchase gold, and China's gold reserves rising for the eighth consecutive month [9]. - Despite a positive outlook for gold, gold stock ETFs experienced a decline of over 2% in the past week, with major holdings like Zijin Mining and Shandong Gold dropping more than 5% [9].

Group 1 - Spot gold increased by 1% during the day, reaching $3357.19 per ounce [1] - Spot silver rose nearly 2% during the day, currently priced at $37.71 per ounce [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, precious metals showed a weak and volatile trend, with the main contract of Shanghai Gold closing up 0.49% and the main contract of Shanghai Silver closing up 0.22% [1] - In the short - term, the trade war has entered a new stage, and there are still risks of economic recession and geopolitical changes; the risk of stagflation in the US economy has increased, and strong employment has suppressed the expectation of interest rate cuts [1] - It is expected that precious metals will be volatile and strong in the short - term, fluctuate at a high level in the medium - term, and rise step - by - step in the long - term [1] - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, the net long position of CFTC silver and iShare silver ETF have been reduced again. In terms of inventory, the visible inventory of silver has increased slightly recently [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Market Performance**: The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed up 0.49%, and the main contract of London Gold decreased by 0.50%. The main contract of Comex gold increased by 0.31% [1][2] - **Core Logic**: Short - term trade war risks, US stagflation risk, and strong employment suppressing interest rate cuts [1] - **Attributes Analysis** - **Safe - haven**: Trump's new tariff measures on 14 countries, including 25% on Japan and South Korea, 50% on copper, and up to 200% on drugs [1] - **Monetary**: The Fed's meeting minutes show low support for a July interest rate cut, and strong employment rules out the possibility of a near - term rate cut. The market expects the next rate cut in September, with the total rate cut space in 2025 falling back to around 50 basis points [1] - **Commodity**: The CRB commodity index's rebound is under pressure, and the strong RMB suppresses domestic prices [1] - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended [2] Silver - **Market Performance**: The main contract of Shanghai Silver closed up 0.63%, and the main contract of London Silver decreased by 1.74%. The main contract of Comex silver decreased by 0.27% [6] - **Core Logic**: Gold price is the anchor for silver price, with reduced capital positions and slightly increased visible inventory [5] - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended [6] Fundamental Key Data - **Fed - related Data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 4.50%, the discount rate is 4.50%, the reserve balance rate is 4.40%, and the Fed's total assets are $67103.64 billion [8] - **Inflation Data**: CPI year - on - year is 2.40%, core CPI year - on - year is 2.80%, PCE price index year - on - year is 2.34%, and core PCE price index year - on - year is 2.68% [10] - **Economic Growth Data**: GDP annualized year - on - year is 1.90%, GDP annualized quarter - on - quarter is - 0.50%, and the unemployment rate is 4.10% [10] - **Other Data**: The ten - year US Treasury real yield is 2.57%, the US dollar index is 97.55, and the geopolitical risk index is 132.88 [8][11] Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations - The probability of different interest rate ranges at each Fed meeting from July 2025 to December 2026 is provided, showing the market's expectations for future interest rate changes [12]