山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2025年11月25日16时30分 一、黄金 报告导读： 今日贵金属震荡反弹，沪金主力收涨1.48%，沪银主力收涨2.75%。①核心逻辑，短期避险方面，中美会谈利空兑现，地缘异动风 险仍在；美国就业走弱通胀温和，降息预期仍存。②避险属性方面，中美经贸磋商成果共识公布。俄乌、中东等地缘异动风险仍存 。③货币属性方面，美联储理事沃勒和纽约联储威廉姆斯讲话共同提高美联储降息可能性。美国11月工厂活动降至四个月新低， 需求疲软导致库存积压。美国9月就业增长超预期，但失业率升至4.4%。美国政府结束停摆，市场等待更多经济数据指引。目前市 场预期美联储12月降息25基点概率暴涨至80%附近。美元指数和美债收益率下行遇阻偏强；④商品属性方面，CRB商品指数震荡 偏弱，人民币贬值利多内价格。⑤预计贵金属短期震荡偏强，中期高位震荡，长期阶梯上行。 | 策略：稳健者观望，激进者高抛低吸。建议做好仓位管理，严格止损止盈。 | | --- | | 表1 黄金相关数据： | | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | 较上日 | | 较上周/前值 | | | --- | --- | --- | - ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Platinum and palladium are important precious metals with high demand in various industries, and their supply is highly concentrated, with significant supply - side impacts on prices. The supply - side factors such as production cuts, accidents, and disruptions in recycling channels can cause obvious price fluctuations [15]. - The demand for platinum and palladium is mainly in automotive catalysts, industry, jewelry, and medical fields. In the context of carbon neutrality and carbon peaking, the hydrogen energy industry is expected to become a new growth point for platinum and palladium consumption [37][47]. - China's platinum - group metal resources are extremely scarce, with a high degree of import dependence. The importance of the recycling end is increasing, but the supply of waste materials is tight, and domestic recycling enterprises face fierce competition [32][82]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Platinum and Palladium Species Overview - **Natural Attributes**: Platinum and palladium are silver - white metals, belonging to the platinum - group metals (PGMs). Platinum has a crustal content of 0.005 ppm, and palladium has 0.0006 ppm. Platinum has high melting point, good ductility, and stable chemical properties. Palladium can adsorb gases, is corrosion - resistant, and is mainly used in the catalyst field [6][7][8]. - **Resource Distribution and Classification**: Platinum - group metal resources are mainly distributed in South Africa, Russia, the United States, and other regions. The deposits can be divided into primary deposits and exogenous sand deposits, with magma - related processes being the main formation mechanism [10][13]. 3.2 Platinum - Group Metal Industry Chain - **Upstream**: The upstream of the platinum - group metal industry chain is dominated by a few mining and smelting integrated producers. The "oligopoly" structure makes the supply side dominant in price. The mining and extraction of platinum - group metals involve exploration, mining development, ore extraction, processing, and refining [15][16]. - **Supply and Recycling of Platinum - Group Materials**: The separation and purification processes of platinum - group metals vary according to the raw material components. The recycling of platinum - group metals is becoming increasingly important, but the supply of waste materials is tight [19][32]. - **Terminal Applications**: Platinum and palladium are mainly used in automotive catalysts, jewelry, industry, medical, and other fields. Automotive catalysts are the largest consumer area, with platinum's consumption structure being more diversified and over 80% of palladium used in automotive catalysts [37]. - **Investment Channels**: Platinum investment channels include physical investment (platinum bars and coins), platinum ETFs, futures, forwards, and stocks. Palladium investment demand is relatively small [49][50]. 3.3 Global Platinum Supply - Demand Pattern - **Supply**: South Africa, Zimbabwe, and Russia are the main suppliers of global platinum. In 2024, South Africa's platinum output accounted for 71% of the global total. The global platinum output decreased in 2024 due to various factors such as power outages and company restructurings [55]. - **Demand**: The main consumers of global platinum are China, Europe, North America, and Japan. In 2024, the global platinum demand decreased by 1.6% to 198 tons, with a supply gap of 1.98 tons [65]. 3.4 Global Palladium Supply - Demand Pattern - **Supply**: Russia, South Africa, Canada, and the United States are the main suppliers of global palladium. In 2024, Russia and South Africa's palladium output accounted for 43% and 41% of the global total respectively. The global palladium output increased slightly in 2024 [69][71]. - **Demand**: The main consumers of global palladium are China, the United States, Europe, and Japan. In 2024, the global palladium demand decreased by 4% to 254.2 tons, with a supply surplus of 2.4 tons [73][77]. 3.5 China's Platinum - Group Resource Pattern - **Resource Endowment**: China's platinum - group metal resources are extremely scarce, mainly distributed in Gansu, Yunnan, and other regions. In 2022, China's platinum - group metal reserves were 80.9 tons, and the resource reserves are decreasing [82]. - **Import Dependence**: China's platinum and palladium resources have a high degree of import dependence. In 2024, China imported 104.1 tons of platinum and 28.1 tons of palladium [86][88][92]. - **Domestic Demand**: In 2024, China consumed 64.4 tons of platinum and 68.9 tons of palladium. The demand for platinum in the automotive catalyst and chemical industries decreased, while the demand for palladium in the automotive catalyst field decreased significantly [97][101]. - **Import and Export and Taxes**: The import tariffs and value - added taxes of platinum and palladium vary according to the processing state. China's platinum is mainly imported from South Africa, and palladium is mainly imported from Russia and South Africa [110][111][114]. 3.6 Platinum and Palladium Price Review No detailed price review content is provided in the text, only a mention of historical price trends. 3.7 Guangzhou Futures Exchange Platinum and Palladium Futures - **Contract Text**: On November 7, 2025, the GZFE issued announcements on the palladium futures and palladium options contracts and related rules [126]. - **Risk Control System**: No detailed content is provided in the text. 3.8 Platinum and Palladium Options - **Option Contracts**: No detailed content is provided in the text. - **Risk Control System**: No detailed content is provided in the text. 3.9 Delivery Business - **Delivery Time**: No detailed content is provided in the text. - **Delivery Product Form and Premium/Discount**: No detailed content is provided in the text. - **Delivery Unit**: No detailed content is provided in the text. - **Delivery Handling Fee**: No detailed content is provided in the text. - **Warehousing and Out - of - Warehouse Fees**: No detailed content is provided in the text. - **Physical Delivery Method**: No detailed content is provided in the text. - **Delivery Quality Standard**: No detailed content is provided in the text. - **Warehouse Standard Warehouse Receipt Delivery**: No detailed content is provided in the text. - **Factory Warehouse Standard Warehouse Receipt Delivery**: No detailed content is provided in the text. 3.10 Platinum and Palladium Delivery Areas, Factories, and Warehouses - **Platinum Futures Delivery Area Factories**: No detailed content is provided in the text. - **Palladium Futures Delivery Area Factories**: No detailed content is provided in the text. - **Platinum and Palladium Futures Delivery Warehouses**: No detailed content is provided in the text. 3.11 Platinum and Palladium Designated Quality Inspection Institutions and Inspection Fees - **Platinum and Palladium Futures Quality Inspection Institution List**: No detailed content is provided in the text. - **Maximum Limit of Platinum Futures Inspection Fees**: No detailed content is provided in the text. - **Maximum Limit of Palladium Futures Inspection Fees**: No detailed content is provided in the text. 3.12 Platinum and Palladium Delivery Brands - **List of Registered Brands for Platinum Futures (Domestic)**: No detailed content is provided in the text. - **List of Registered Brands for Platinum Futures (Overseas)**: No detailed content is provided in the text. - **List of Registered Brands for Palladium Futures (Domestic)**: No detailed content is provided in the text. - **List of Registered Brands for Palladium Futures (Overseas)**: No detailed content is provided in the text.

异动点评：美联储降息预期反转贵金属重拾涨势 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1292 号 叶倩宁（投资咨询资格编号：Z0016628） | 2025年FOMC票委派别 | 官员最新观点 | | --- | --- | | 台灣成 | 米兰:数据支持降息,美联储应更加偏鸽 | | | 沃勒：支持在美联储12月会议上再次"预防性"降息25个BP | | | 鲍曼:支持继续降息以应对劳动力市场放缓及经济增长趋弱的局势 | | 障 科成 | 施密德：认为进一步的降息对缓解劳动力市场的任何压力作用不大，这些压力更可能来自技术和移民政策的 | | | 结构件变化, 但降息可能对通胀产生更持久的影响 | | | 穆萨莱姆:随着政策利率接近中性利率,美联储需要保持谨慎 | | | 古尔斯比：或许不愿继续降息周期，在通胀数据缺席的情况下对降息更感不安，需要保持谨慎 | | 中间派 | 鲍威尔:12月降息并非既定结论,受美国政府持续停摆影响,数据获取受限存在不确定性 | | | 威廉姆斯：美联储 "石坑期"仍有进一步下调联邦基金利率区间的空间,以使政策立场更接近中性水平。就 | | | 业走弱的风险上升,而通胀恶化的风险已 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Silver: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] 2. Core View of the Report - Today, precious metals continued to adjust. The delayed - released September non - farm payrolls in the US increased by 119,000, exceeding expectations and the previous value, but the unemployment rate rose slightly by 0.1 percentage points to 4.4%. The weekly initial jobless claims were 223,000, lower than expected and remaining at a low level, showing employment resilience. However, the October non - farm and OPI data won't be released, and the November data will be postponed to mid - November, meaning there will be a lack of key data reference before the next Fed meeting. Fed officials' recent statements have significant differences, and the market's bets on a December rate cut have been fluctuating. On Friday, the New York Fed President's statement that there is still room for interest rate adjustment increased the implied probability of a rate cut in the interest rate market to around 70%. Geopolitically, the US proposed a 28 - point Ukraine peace plan, which was opposed by some European allies, and multi - party games will continue. The strong Nvidia earnings last week supported the US stocks, but then the US stocks sharply corrected, and there are still concerns about the bubble. Short - term market news is complex, and precious metals are in high - level oscillations. Attention should be paid to the directional breakthrough in the technical aspect [1] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Russia - Ukraine Conflict - US and Ukrainian representatives said the Geneva talks "made progress", and Rubio said Trump was satisfied with the talks report. Zelensky stated that the US peace plan is expected to incorporate Ukraine's core interests. Europe put forward a counter - proposal to the 28 - point plan, including the US providing NATO Article 5 - style protection, Ukraine not using military means to recover occupied territories, territorial negotiations based on the current military contact line, and allowing Ukraine to join NATO with NATO's consensus. US and Ukrainian officials are discussing Zelensky's visit to the US this week. US Treasury Secretary Bessent said Trump is pressuring Russia to end the conflict and is confident that the Russia - Ukraine peace process is advancing. Trump thinks November 27 is a suitable deadline for Ukraine to accept the peace agreement terms [2] 3.2 Fed - Williams believes there is still room for a rate cut in the near term. Collins thinks there is a reason to be cautious about a December rate cut and expects further rate cuts in the future. Milan will support a 25 - basis - point rate cut if his vote is decisive. Logan believes the Fed needs to "temporarily keep interest rates unchanged" when inflation is still high and the labor market is generally balanced [2]

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2025年11月24日15时57分 一、黄金 报告导读： 今日贵金属震荡偏弱，沪金主力收跌0.52%，沪银主力收跌1.14%。①核心逻辑，短期避险方面，中美会谈利空兑现，地缘异动风 险仍存；美国就业走弱通胀温和，降息预期回调。②避险属性方面，中美经贸磋商成果共识公布。俄乌、中东等地缘异动风险仍存 。③货币属性方面，威廉姆斯讲话提高美联储降息可能性，但政策鹰派仍坚持己见。美国11月工厂活动降至四个月新低，需求疲 软导致库存积压。美国9月就业增长超预期，但失业率升至4.4%。美国政府结束停摆，市场等待更多经济数据指引。目前市场预期 美联储12月降息25基点概率暴涨至70%附近。美元指数和美债收益率高位承压；④商品属性方面，CRB商品指数震荡偏弱，人民 币贬值利多内价格。⑤预计贵金属短期震荡偏弱，中期高位震荡，长期阶梯上行。 | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | 较上日 | | 较上周/前值 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国际价格 | Comex黄金主力合约收盘价 | 美元 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【贵金属周报（AU、AG）】 美联储内部分歧加剧，贵金属承压回落 国贸期货 贵金属与新能源研究中心 2025-11-24 白素娜 从业资格证号：F3023916 投资咨询证号：Z0013700 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 周度观点摘要 ◆ 上周贵金属有所承压，周线整体收跌。主要影响因素分析如下：（1）美联储官员上 半周表态偏鹰，加上美联储10月会议纪要进一步暴露美联储内部对于12月降息的分歧日益 加剧，同时美国政府明确10月非农、CPI数据均不公布，这意味着美联储官员在年内最后 一次会议前可能将同时失去就业、通胀两项关键经济数据，不得不促使美联储谨慎控制降 息节奏。受此影响，美联储12月降息概率骤降，美股、比特币等资产全线下挫，流动性紧 缩下贵金属价格亦承压下挫。但随着恐慌指数回升，上周五晚间，美联储官员安抚市场， 称预计未来还会进一步降息，且有官员表态预计不久美联储将重新扩表，美联储降息预期 再度回升，流动性紧缩风险有所缓和，贵金属跌幅收窄。（2）俄罗斯央行开始抛售实物 黄金，一度对金价 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Yangtze River Futures Precious Metals Weekly Report - Report Date: November 24, 2025 - Researcher: Wang Guodong [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - Due to the stronger-than-expected US September non-farm payroll data and hawkish statements from multiple Fed officials, the market's expectation of a December interest rate cut is about 50%, and precious metal prices continue to adjust. There is a divergence in the market regarding whether there will be an interest rate cut in December, and the expected end-point of this round of interest rate cuts has been lowered compared to the previous period. With the influence of Trump on the Fed's independence emerging and the slowdown of the US employment situation, although Powell said that the changing economic risks give the Fed more reasons to cut interest rates, the Fed officials have expressed hawkish views, and the October meeting minutes show that further interest rate cuts are not guaranteed. Given the weakening trend of US economic data and market concerns about the US fiscal situation and the Fed's independence, it is expected that precious metal prices will still be supported in the medium term but remain in an adjustment state in the short term [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Gold**: The US September non-farm payroll data was stronger than expected, and multiple Fed officials made hawkish statements, causing the price of US gold to fluctuate and adjust. As of last Friday, US gold closed at $4,063 per ounce, down 0.5% for the week. The upper resistance level is $4,150, and the lower support level is $3,950 [6]. - **Silver**: The US September non-farm payroll data was stronger than expected, and multiple Fed officials made hawkish statements, leading to a fluctuating adjustment in the price of US silver. As of last Friday, it had a weekly decline of 0.1%, closing at $50.3 per ounce. The lower support level is $48.5, and the upper resistance level is $51.5 [9]. 3.2 Weekly View - The precious metal prices continue to adjust due to the strong non-farm payroll data and hawkish Fed statements. There is uncertainty about the December interest rate cut, and the expected end-point of the interest rate cut has been lowered. The US economic data is weakening, and concerns about the fiscal situation and Fed independence support the medium-term precious metal prices, but they are in short-term adjustment [11]. 3.3 Overseas Macroeconomic Indicators - Multiple charts are presented, including the US dollar index, euro-to-US dollar and pound-to-US dollar exchange rates, real interest rates (10-year TIPS yield), US Treasury bond yields (10-year and 2-year), yield spreads (10Y - 2Y), Fed balance sheet size and its weekly changes, gold-silver ratio, and WTI crude oil futures price trends, but no specific analysis is provided in the text [15][17][19][21]. 3.4 Important Economic Data of the Week - **US September Non-farm Payrolls**: The seasonally adjusted change in non-farm employment was 1.19 million, higher than the expected 0.5 million and the previous value of 0.22 million. - **US September Unemployment Rate**: It was 3.8%, higher than the expected 3.7% and the previous value of 3.7% [24]. 3.5 Important Macroeconomic Events and Policies of the Week - Fed Vice Chairman Jefferson said that as monetary policy gradually approaches a level that will not put downward pressure on inflation, the Fed needs to "proceed with caution" in further interest rate cuts. He believes that the Fed's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points last month was appropriate considering the rising risks in the job market and the recent "easing" of inflation. - US employment growth accelerated in September, but the labor market remained weak, unable to keep up with the pace of new job seekers. Employers are dealing with the impact of import tariffs and introducing artificial intelligence into some positions. The unemployment rate rose from 4.3% in August to 4.4%, the highest in four years. Non-farm payrolls increased by 1.19 million, far higher than the economists' forecast of 0.5 million, and the August data was revised down to a decrease of 4,000 jobs, highlighting the weakness of the labor market [25]. 3.6 Inventory - **Gold**: This week, the COMEX gold inventory decreased by 19,233.59 kg to 1,143,494.71 kg, while the SHFE inventory remained unchanged at 90,426 kg. - **Silver**: This week, the COMEX silver inventory decreased by 465,546.71 kg to 14,329,462.14 kg, and the SHFE inventory decreased by 57,623 kg to 519,271 kg [13][28]. 3.7 Fund Holdings - As of October 7, the CFTC speculative fund net long positions for gold were 225,202 contracts, a decrease of 22,879 contracts from the previous week; for silver, they were 43,722 contracts, a decrease of 4,363 contracts from the previous week [13][33]. 3.8 This Week's Focus - On Wednesday, November 26, at 21:30, the number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending November 29 will be released [35].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in precious metals is primarily driven by cyclical demand for gold, with silver prices outpacing gold [1] Group 1: Price Projections - By 2026, COMEX gold prices are expected to reach $4,500 per ounce, while silver prices are projected to rise to $55 per ounce, indicating further upside potential from current levels [1] Group 2: Investment Demand - The cyclical investment demand for precious metals has not peaked, as the U.S. monetary policy may shift towards easing in the short term, and long-term inflation expectations could remain unanchored [1] Group 3: Structural Support - The unique value of physical gold and the strategic nature of silver are expected to provide structural support for global central bank gold purchases, private physical investments, and regional stockpiling [1]

Core Viewpoints - The market's expectation for a rate cut in December has increased, providing short-term support for precious metals [1] - There is a significant divergence in views within the Federal Reserve, contributing to a weak performance in the U.S. stock market and affecting gold prices [2] - Central bank purchases of gold are expected to continue supporting gold prices in the long term, despite short-term fluctuations [3] Group 1: Market Sentiment and Predictions - Minmetals Futures indicates that the expectation of a dovish monetary policy from the Federal Reserve has significantly rebounded, leading to strong short-term support for precious metals [1] - According to Everbright Futures, the end of the U.S. government shutdown did not sustain market optimism, resulting in a lack of upward momentum for gold prices [2] - Asset Strategies International forecasts that gold prices will continue to rise next year, supported by ongoing central bank purchases [3] Group 2: Key Factors Influencing Gold Prices - Gold and silver prices are driven by long-term factors such as sovereign debt issues, geopolitical risks, and central bank purchases, which remain robust despite short-term adjustments [2] - Rich Checkan from Asset Strategies International believes that the recent decline in gold prices may have been overdone, with solid support expected for future price increases [3] - Blue Line Futures highlights three key factors that will continue to drive gold prices upward, including central banks diversifying away from the dollar, increased investor interest in gold, and a favorable stagflation environment [3]

Core Insights - The significant rise in international gold prices exceeding 30% in 2025 and the doubling of stock prices for 29 gold concept stocks in the A-share market are attributed to multiple underlying logical resonances, indicating a clear future direction for the precious metals industry [1][3] Industry Dynamics - The core appeal of precious metals is driven by profound changes in the global macro environment and industrial landscape, with increased demand for gold as a traditional safe-haven asset due to U.S. government policy uncertainties and escalating international trade tensions [3] - Central banks globally are increasing their gold reserves, creating a dual effect of institutional and individual investments shifting from riskier assets like U.S. Treasury bonds to precious metals [3] - The supply-demand dynamics show a continuous shortage of silver supply for four consecutive years, while gold mining companies face resource constraints that limit rapid production increases, reinforcing the value support for precious metals [3] Technological Transformation - The precious metals industry is undergoing a significant transformation characterized by "technological reshaping and structural optimization," with platforms like Lingfeng New Era leading the shift from traditional trading models to comprehensive digitalization [3][6] - The application of technologies such as AI risk control, blockchain verification, and real-time market analysis enhances trading efficiency and security, while also providing value-added services that lower entry barriers for investors [3] Market Concentration - The industry is experiencing a clear trend of concentration, with leading companies like Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Shandong Gold consolidating their advantages through resource integration and capacity expansion [4] - The demand for silver is expanding beyond investment to industrial applications, particularly in new energy and electronic components, which enhances the dual attributes of "precious metals + industrial metals" and opens up growth opportunities for the industry [4] Future Outlook - Despite the long-term positive outlook for the precious metals industry, potential risks such as geopolitical tensions and shifts in U.S. monetary policy could lead to short-term market volatility [4] - Factors such as global economic uncertainty, energy transition demands under "dual carbon" goals, and the conveniences brought by digitalization are expected to provide sustained growth momentum for the precious metals industry [4][6]