1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the commodity index fluctuated and declined slightly. Industrial and agricultural products both weakened. The weak fundamentals dragged down the overall commodity trend in the first half - week, while the market risk appetite improved in the second half - week, driving the commodities to rebound. The demand in the peak season was not strong, and the commodities were likely to fluctuate weakly. There were both bullish and bearish factors at the macro - level, and the demand had not improved significantly at the fundamental level [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs PART ONE: Main Views - **Review**: The commodity index fluctuated and declined slightly this week. Industrial and agricultural products weakened. The weak fundamentals in the first half - week and the improved risk appetite in the second half - week due to Fed rate - cut expectations and A - share rebound affected the commodity trend [3]. - **Overseas**: - In August, US inflation met market expectations. The CPI increased year - on - year and month - on - month, mainly due to rising prices of food, energy, and housing. A 25BP rate cut in September was the benchmark scenario, and the inflation upside risk was controllable. The weak employment market might be the Fed's focus [3]. - In the first week of September, the seasonally - adjusted initial jobless claims in the US reached 263,000, an increase of 27,000 from the previous week, indicating a cooling labor market [3]. - The ECB maintained key interest rates unchanged on September 11, 2025. The policy signal was "hawkish". The market's expectation of another ECB rate cut this year dropped to about 15%. In the short - term, the ECB was likely to stay put, while in the long - term, its policy stance was uncertain [3]. - **Domestic**: - In August, the new social financing scale was 2.57 trillion yuan, less than the same period last year but slightly higher than expected. New loans were 590 billion yuan, less than last year and in line with expectations. The real - economy financing demand was weak, and government net financing might become a drag. The rebound of resident and enterprise credit demand was crucial [3]. - In August, China's imports and exports in US dollars were lower than expected. Export momentum might weaken marginally, but there were still supporting factors such as global economic recovery and strong exports to Africa [3]. - **Commodity View**: With the peak demand season not living up to expectations, commodities were likely to fluctuate weakly. There were both bullish and bearish factors at the macro - level, and the demand had not improved at the fundamental level [3]. PART TWO: Overseas Situation Analysis - **US Inflation and Employment**: In August, US CPI increased year - on - year to 2.9%. The seasonally - adjusted initial jobless claims in the first week of September increased significantly, and the labor market was cooling [3][7][10]. - **ECB Policy**: The ECB maintained key interest rates unchanged on September 11, 2025. The policy signal was "hawkish", and the market's expectation of another rate cut this year dropped to about 15%. The future policy stance was uncertain depending on inflation and economic recovery [3][13]. PART THREE: Domestic Situation Analysis - **Financial Data**: In August, new social financing and loans were lower than the same period last year. The real - economy financing demand was weak, and government net financing might affect future performance. The rebound of credit demand was key [3][17]. - **Foreign Trade Data**: In August, China's imports and exports in US dollars were lower than expected. Export momentum might weaken, but there were supporting factors [3][20]. PART FOUR: High - Frequency Data Tracking - **Industrial Data**: On September 5, the PTA operating rate was 78.28%, and the POY operating rate was 87.36%. In August and September, the operating rates of some industries showed certain changes [27][34]. - **Automobile Data**: In August and September, the sales of automobiles showed growth. For example, in August, the sales were 201.9 (units not specified), a 5.9% increase [34]. - **Agricultural Product Data**: On September 12, the price changes of some agricultural products were 0.75% and 0.14%, etc. [35].

Group 1: US Market Focus - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points this week, with a potential for further cuts in October and December [14][18][19] - The US job market continues to show signs of weakness, with August non-farm payroll data significantly below expectations, indicating a cooling trend [12][13] - The technology sector remains a strong investment focus, particularly companies like Zoom and ServiceNow, which are expected to benefit from macroeconomic stability and AI integration [16][19] Group 2: Japanese Market Focus - The resignation of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has introduced uncertainty in Japanese economic policy, with potential implications for fiscal sustainability [24][26] - The Bank of Japan is likely to maintain its current interest rate stance in September but may consider rate hikes in the future due to persistent inflation [29][30] - Japanese stocks are expected to attract continued investment, particularly in companies like Kyocera and JX Metals, as the yen is projected to appreciate [30][33] Group 3: Indonesian Market Focus - The resignation of Finance Minister Sri Mulyani has raised concerns about Indonesia's long-term fiscal outlook, although the new minister, Airlangga Hartarto, aims to maintain fiscal health [46][47] - The Indonesian central bank is anticipated to keep interest rates unchanged in the upcoming meeting, reflecting a cautious approach amid economic challenges [47][48] - There is an expectation of strengthened economic cooperation between China and Indonesia, with potential investment opportunities in companies like Pakuwon and Surya Semesta [42][46]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the recent weak labor market data in the U.S. and President Trump's pressure for significant interest rate cuts have strengthened market expectations for the Federal Reserve to initiate its first rate cut of the year [1] - Gold prices have risen for the fourth consecutive week, with a year-to-date increase of 39%, highlighting its appeal as a safe-haven asset amid macroeconomic uncertainties [1] - Market focus has shifted from "whether to cut rates" to "the extent and frequency of rate cuts," with widespread predictions of consecutive rate cuts in September and October [1] Group 2 - From a technical perspective, after reaching a historical high of $3,674, gold has not shown significant reversal signals, indicating that bullish sentiment remains dominant [3] - Current gold prices are in a high-level consolidation phase, suggesting that buying pressure has not weakened [3] - As the interest rate decision approaches, both bulls and bears may adopt a wait-and-see approach, with short-term expectations leaning towards consolidation, focusing on support at the 3,620-3,615 range and resistance at 3,660 [3] Group 3 - A trading suggestion is provided to buy on a pullback to the 3,625-3,620 range, with a stop loss at 3,615 and a target of 3,655-3,660, emphasizing the importance of setting strict stop-loss orders [4]

今日周一（9月15日）亚盘时段，黄金期货目前交投于828.44附近，截至发稿，黄金期货暂报832.48元/ 克，涨幅.021%，最高触及835.34元/克，最低下探828.42元/克。目前来看，黄金期货短线偏向震荡走 势。 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【要闻速递】 上周，初请失业金人数攀升至26.3万，远超经济学家预期，此乃就业增长放缓之先兆。过往四个月间， 美国月均新增就业岗位尚不足10万个；另据美国劳工统计局修正数据，截至3月份的一年间，实际新增 就业岗位较此前预估少了近百万之巨。展望后续走势，罗森伯格指出，因招聘步伐放缓且估值偏高，市 场或已步入下滑通道，抑或正濒临这一边缘。除劳动力市场隐忧外，房地产市场亦令人担忧，其已然成 为拖累经济的要害所在。当前住房总价值高达48万亿美元，约为危机前的两倍有余。有知名人士警示， 房价一旦下跌，或将触发负面财富效应，进而削弱消费者信心与支出意愿。 【最新黄金期货行情解析】 国内金价当前正处于高位震荡格局之中，虽整体呈现多头趋势，却并未盲目持续刷新高点，而是陷入了 反复震荡的走势。截至上周四、周五，沪金最高触及838附近，融通金亦攀升至830附近。 展望本周行情 ...

证券研究报告·策略报告·策略点评 策略点评 20250915 降息前的普涨——港股&海外周观察 2025 年 09 月 15 日 首先，关税对美国通胀传导程度仍旧可控。美国 8 月 PPI 同比增长 2.6%， 为 6 月以来新低，远低于预期的 3.3%，前值从 3.3%下修为 3.1%；同时， 美国 8 月 CPI 也基本符合预期，CPI 同比 2.9%，持平预期，较前值 2.7% 小幅回升。美国 8 月 CPI 环比 0.4%，略高于预期的 0.3%，前值 0.2%。 PPI 下降为 9 月美联储提供了支持降息的依据，CPI 的温和表现则是巩 固了降息 25bps 降息的幅度。 其次，甲骨文财报超预期，给美股科技注入"强心剂"。甲骨文财报受 到 AI 驱动合同量大幅增长，第一季度创纪录 3320 亿美元订单金额，不 仅刷新软件行业历史最高签约记录，同时标志着其商业模式的根本性转 型。与此同时，甲骨文又宣布与 OpenAI 达成 3000 亿美元新合约，积极 AI 消息的频度和强度持续提升，不断推高科技狂热潮。 短期来看，我们认为美股以继续震荡上行为主。美国就业高频数据（初 请失业金人数上升）+基本符合预期 ...

报告日期：2025 年 9 月 15 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评：降息周期即将重启？ 中美在西班牙就有关经贸问题举行会谈。当地时间 9 月 14 日，中美双方在西班 牙马德里就有关经贸问题举行会谈。双方将讨论美单边关税措施、滥用出口管制 及 TikTok 等经贸问题。对于 TikTok 问题，中方将坚持原则，坚定维护中资企业 正当合法权益。涉及中国企业的具体商业安排，必须符合中国法律法规。商务部 就美国对华集成电路领域相关措施发起反歧视立案调查。本次调查自 2025 年 9 月 13 日开始，调查期限通常为 3 个月，特殊情况下可适当延长。全球金融市场 将迎来"央行超级周"，美联储、加拿大央行等多家主要央行将公布利率决议。 市场普遍预计美联储将首次降息 25 个基点，以应对疲软的劳动力市场。英美本 周将签署一项"突破性"科技协议，核心内容聚焦人工智能与量子计算合作。中 国 8 月新增社融 2.57 万亿元，新增贷款 5900 亿元，M2-M1 剪刀差创四年新低。 重点品种：黄金、铜、股指 黄金：黄金高位整理，白银接棒走强。上周公布的通胀数据整体符合预期，8 月 CPI 同比上涨 2.9%，较 7 月的 ...

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market indices collectively rose on September 15, with the lithium battery sector strengthening and new energy vehicle stocks performing actively [1] - The Hang Seng Technology Index ETF (513180) rose over 1.5%, with leading stocks including Bilibili, NIO, Hua Hong, Li Auto, BYD, and Alibaba [1] - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Automotive ETF (159323) saw an increase of over 2%, with top-performing stocks such as Zhejiang Shibao, Nexperia, and Ganfeng Lithium [1] Group 2 - Huatai Securities noted that the market has fully priced in a rate cut in September, with expectations of cumulative rate cuts of about three times by 2025, while the main divergence lies in whether a rate cut will occur in October [1] - The employment market's performance will be a crucial determining factor, with expectations of two rate cuts in 2025 unless the employment market slows more than anticipated, which could increase the probability of three cuts within the year [1] - Guotai Junan Securities highlighted that the dovish stance from Powell has led to a depreciation of the US dollar and a decline in US Treasury yields, alleviating liquidity pressure on the Hong Kong dollar [2]

另据报道称，当地时间9月14日，美国总统特朗普向美国上诉法院提出最后请求，要求允许其解雇美联储理事库克，理由是她涉嫌房贷欺诈。特朗 普希望在下周美联储利率决议前完成此举，并再次强调库克至今未能对相关指控作出有力反驳。 9月9日，美国地方法院曾裁定暂缓特朗普对库克的解职决定，直至其起诉案审理完毕。特朗普团队随后要求华盛顿上诉法院暂停该禁令。 当地时间9月14日，美国总统特朗普对记者表示，他预计美联储将在本周的会议上宣布"大幅降息"。 特朗普称："我认为会有一次大幅降息。"若成真，这将是美联储自去年12月以来首次降息。 美联储将于9月16日和17日召开货币政策会议，市场普遍预计美联储届时将开启新一轮降息。 审核：陆龙天 编辑：王雨晴 来源：央视新闻客户端 △库克（图源：IC photo） 监制：魏静 主编：吕冬 ...

特朗普称："我认为会有一次大幅降息。"若成真，这将是美联储自去年12月以来首次降息。 当地时间9月10日，美国总统特朗普在其社交平台"真实社交"上发文再次批评美联储主席鲍威尔，并敦促立即大幅降息。 特朗普写道，美国"没有通胀"，美联储"必须立刻大幅降息"，并称鲍威尔是"一场彻底的灾难"，还表示鲍威尔"毫无头绪"。 特朗普已多次要求鲍威尔降息。美国8月失业率上升至4.3%，创近4年来新高，就业数据恶化强化了市场对美联储降息的预期，分析人士预计美联储或于9月 开启新一轮降息。9月7日，白宫经济顾问凯文·哈西特表示，美联储的货币政策必须完全独立，不应受到任何政治力量的影响，包括来自总统特朗普的影 响。 北京时间9月18日凌晨，美国联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议将公布9月利率决议和经济预期摘要，美联储主席鲍威尔将举行货币政策新闻发布会。芝商 所"美联储观察"工具显示，本周FOMC有96.4%的概率将实施25个基点的降息，将美国政策利率区间下降至4%~4.25%。还有极其微弱的可能性会降息50个基 点。 每经编辑：毕陆名 据央视新闻，当地时间9月14日，美国总统特朗普对记者表示，他预计美联储将在本周的会议上宣布"大 ...

在9月议息会议前夕，美国总统特朗普表示，美联储将在此次会议上实施9个月以来的首次宽松政策，他 预期美联储会"大幅降息"。与此同时，特朗普政府再度敦促美国上诉法院批准解雇美联储理事库克。 目前来看，市场已经确信美联储将会至少降息25个基点，但降息50个基点的难度很大。据CME"美联储 观察"，美联储本周降息25个基点的概率达96.4%，降息50个基点的概率仅为3.6%。有分析指出，本周 美联储会议声明的措辞、利率点阵图以及投票结果，将是判断美联储未来货币政策走向的关键。 "降息幅度会很大" 牛市来了还没上车？上天天基金APP搜索777注册即可领500元券包，优选基金10元起投！限 量发放！先到先得！ 关键时刻，特朗普向美联储"极限施压"。 美东时间9月14日，美国总统特朗普表示，美联储本周将举行一次关键会议，美联储预计将在此次会议上 实施九个月来的首次宽松政策，届时美联储将"大幅降息" 。 "我认为美联储的降息幅度会很大，"特朗普周日返回华盛顿途中对记者表示："现在正是降息的最佳时 机。" 根据日程安排，美联储将于本周（9月16日至17日）召开议息会议，届时将决定是否降息。市场一致认 为，该央行将在此次会议上进 ...