Market Overview - US stock index futures are all down, with Dow futures down 0.62%, S&P 500 futures down 0.59%, and Nasdaq futures down 0.51% [1] - European indices also show declines, with Germany's DAX down 0.91%, UK's FTSE 100 down 0.45%, France's CAC40 down 0.85%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 down 0.95% [2][3] Oil Market - WTI crude oil increased by 1.11% to $67.31 per barrel, while Brent crude oil rose by 0.96% to $69.30 per barrel [3][4] Economic Insights - Thrasher Analytics reports that the volume of declining stocks has reached a low of 42% of total trading volume, indicating potential overconfidence in the market [5] - The upcoming earnings season is expected to be a significant test for the market [5] Federal Reserve Outlook - San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly suggests that two rate cuts this year are still possible, with manageable impacts from tariffs on inflation [5] Liquidity Concerns - The potential rebuilding of the Treasury General Account (TGA) could lead to a liquidity loss of approximately $510 billion by the end of September, impacting market liquidity [5] Oil Demand Forecast - OPEC predicts that global oil demand will continue to rise, projecting an increase from 103.7 million barrels per day last year to 113.3 million barrels per day by 2030, and nearing 123 million barrels per day by 2050 [6] Cryptocurrency Market - Bitcoin has reached a new high of $118,000, driven by strong institutional demand and favorable policies from the Trump administration [7] Company Developments - Apple plans to launch a series of new products in early 2026, including a new low-end iPhone and upgraded Mac computers, aiming to revitalize growth [8] - Tesla has applied to test its Robotaxi service in Arizona, indicating a push to catch up with Waymo in the autonomous vehicle market [9] - BP expects an increase in oil production and strong trading performance in Q2, signaling a positive outlook for the company [10] - SAP's CEO is optimistic about revenue growth driven by customer migration to cloud services, with a focus on deep analytics and data services [11]

美联储官员立场不一，7月降息概率不大，黄金站稳3330？点击观看GMA指标直播分析 相关链接 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View On July 10, the liquidity tightened marginally, with major repo rates rising slightly. Under the influence of multiple negative factors, the bond market weakened significantly. The convertible bond market followed the equity market and rose, with most individual convertible bonds increasing. Yields of U.S. Treasuries across various tenors generally increased, and yields of 10 - year government bonds in major European economies also mostly rose [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Bond Market News - **Domestic News**: The Shanghai Stock Exchange held a policy briefing on the "1 + 6" reform of the Science and Technology Innovation Board. The National Development and Reform Commission plans to increase investment in key areas of new - type urbanization using "two important and two new" funds [3]. - **International News**: On July 10, Fed Governor Waller suggested considering a rate cut in July, stating that the current federal funds rate is overly restrictive [4]. - **Commodities**: On July 10, international crude oil futures prices declined (WTI August crude futures fell 2.19% to $66.88/barrel, Brent September crude futures fell 2.2% to $68.64/barrel), while international natural gas prices rose (NYMEX natural gas prices rose 4.96% to $3.365/ounce), and COMEX gold futures rose 0.38% to $3333.67/ounce [6]. 3.2 Liquidity - **Open - Market Operations**: On July 10, the central bank conducted 90 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed - rate and quantity - tender method, with an operating rate of 1.40%. With 57.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, the net capital injection was 32.8 billion yuan [8]. - **Funding Rates**: On July 10, the liquidity tightened marginally, with DR001 rising 0.56bp to 1.323% and DR007 rising 1.78bp to 1.495% [9]. 3.3 Bond Market Dynamics - **Interest - Rate Bonds** - **Spot Bond Yield Trends**: On July 10, affected by factors such as the continuous improvement of the stock market, marginal tightening of liquidity, and rumors that Hebei Province guided rural commercial banks to reduce the proportion of bond investments, the bond market weakened significantly. By 20:00, the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250011 rose 1.45bp to 1.6595%, and the yield of the 10 - year CDB bond active bond 250210 rose 1.40bp to 1.7380% [11]. - **Bond Tendering**: Details of bond issuances including various bonds such as 25贴现国开清发02, 25国开清发02(增发19), etc., are provided, including their tenors, issuance scales, winning yields, over - subscription ratios, and marginal ratios [13]. - **Credit Bonds** - **Secondary - Market Transaction Anomalies**: On July 10, 2 industrial bonds ("H1碧地02" down over 34% and "23亦庄06" up over 11%) and 1 urban investment bond ("20泗阳佳鼎债" down over 18%) had transaction price deviations exceeding 10% [14][15]. - **Credit Bond Events**: Events include bond restructuring of Longfor Group, regulatory warnings for Lan创建设, debt - related issues of Xi'an Quwen Investment, Jiangsu Nantong Sanjian, etc., as well as bond repayment and interest - rate adjustment plans of some companies [16]. 3.4 Convertible Bonds - **Equity and Convertible Bond Indexes**: On July 10, the three major A - share indexes rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index up 0.48%, 0.47%, and 0.22% respectively, and the full - day trading volume reaching 1.52 trillion yuan. The main convertible bond indexes also rose, with the CSI Convertible Bond Index, Shanghai Convertible Bond Index, and Shenzhen Convertible Bond Index up 0.40%, 0.40%, and 0.45% respectively. The trading volume of the convertible bond market was 68.377 billion yuan, a decrease of 994 million yuan from the previous trading day. Among 469 convertible bonds, 338 rose, 123 fell, and 8 remained flat [17]. - **Convertible Bond Tracking**: On July 10, Zhite Convertible Bond announced an early redemption, and Hongcheng Convertible Bond announced that it was about to meet the early redemption conditions [19]. 3.5 Overseas Bond Markets - **U.S. Bond Market**: On July 10, the yield of the 2 - year U.S. Treasury remained unchanged at 3.86%, while yields of other tenors generally increased. The yield of the 10 - year U.S. Treasury rose 1bp to 4.35%. The 2/10 - year U.S. Treasury yield spread widened by 1bp to 49bp, and the 5/30 - year U.S. Treasury yield spread narrowed by 2bp to 93bp. The break - even inflation rate of the 10 - year U.S. Treasury Inflation - Protected Securities (TIPS) rose 1bp to 2.34% [20][21][22]. - **European Bond Market**: On July 10, the yield of the 10 - year UK government bond remained unchanged, while yields of 10 - year government bonds in other major European economies generally increased. The yield of the 10 - year German government bond rose 3bp to 2.66%, and yields of 10 - year government bonds in France, Italy, and Spain rose 4bp, 4bp, and 1bp respectively [23]. - **Chinese - Issued Dollar Bonds**: Price changes of Chinese - issued dollar bonds as of the close on July 10 are provided, including daily and monthly changes of bonds issued by companies such as Oceanwide, Country Garden, NIO, etc. [25].

Group 1 - The Shanghai gold futures closed at 773.56 CNY per gram on July 11, with a daily increase of 0.31% and a trading volume of 217,649 contracts [1] - The spot price of gold in Shanghai was quoted at 770.70 CNY per gram, indicating a discount of 2.86 CNY per gram compared to the futures price [1] - U.S. President Trump is considering imposing tariffs of 15%-20% on goods that fail to reach an agreement within a 90-day suspension period, which is an increase from the previously announced 10% [1] Group 2 - The Shanghai gold price increased by 0.07% to 771.70 CNY per gram, while silver rose by 1.45% to 9,014 CNY per kilogram [2] - The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. was reported at 227,000, marking a decline for four consecutive weeks and the lowest level in two months [2] - Federal Reserve officials indicated the possibility of interest rate cuts in July, with significant uncertainty surrounding the policy outlook due to rising inflation concerns linked to the U.S. fiscal deficit and Trump's tariff threats [2]

欧洲央行执委施纳贝尔：进一步降息将需要显著偏离通胀目标。 ...

不存在通胀持续低于目标水平的风险。 再次降息的门槛非常高。 欧洲央行执委Schnabel：欧洲央行处境不错。 ...

Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices rose collectively, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both closing at new highs [1][4] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 192.34 points to 44,650.64, a rise of 0.43% [4] - The S&P 500 index rose by 0.27% to 6,280.46, marking its eighth record close this year [4] Company Highlights - Nvidia's market capitalization surpassed $4 trillion for the first time at closing [5] - Delta Airlines shares rose by 11.99% following a positive earnings outlook indicating a rebound in demand [8] - United Airlines and American Airlines also saw significant increases in their stock prices, rising by 14.33% and 12.72% respectively [8] Cryptocurrency Developments - Bitcoin reached a new all-time high, climbing over 4% to $115,877.4, with earlier peaks exceeding $117,000 [14] - The surge in Bitcoin led to a significant number of liquidations in the market, with over 230,000 traders affected in the past 24 hours [14][16] Economic Commentary - Recent uncertainties in the market have eased, providing support for stock performance, as noted by Wells Fargo's global equity strategist [13] - President Trump urged the Federal Reserve to take swift action to lower interest rates, reflecting ongoing pressure on monetary policy [2][18] - Federal Reserve officials indicated that a rate cut could be discussed in the upcoming July meeting, with a 64% probability of a 25 basis point cut by September [20]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The view on finished products is that they will operate in a volatile and consolidating manner, with prices continuing to move downward in a volatile fashion, hitting new recent lows, and the price center of gravity continuing to shift downward due to weak supply - demand and pessimistic market sentiment. Winter storage is sluggish this year, providing weak price support [1][3]. - The view on aluminum ingots is that prices are expected to be relatively strong in the short - term, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and downstream start - up rates. There are pressures on the downstream start - up rates, and the price is expected to operate in a high - level range in the short - term, with subsequent attention on the inventory - consumption trend [1][4]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Finished Products - Yunnan - Guizhou region's short - process construction steel producers will have a shutdown and maintenance period during the Spring Festival from mid - to late January, with a resumption of production expected between the 11th and 16th day of the first lunar month, and an estimated impact on the total construction steel output of 741,000 tons during the shutdown. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5, and most of the remaining mills will stop production around mid - January, with an estimated daily impact on output of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown [2][3]. - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous week and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3]. Aluminum Ingots - Macroscopically, the minutes of the Fed's last meeting boosted market optimism, with most policymakers believing that interest rate cuts later this year are appropriate. However, policymakers are still worried about the inflationary pressure brought by Trump's tariffs, and only a few officials think a rate cut could happen as early as this month [2]. - As of Thursday, the total built - in production capacity of metallurgical - grade alumina in China is 110.82 million tons/year, and the total operating production capacity is 88.57 million tons/year. The weekly start - up rate of alumina has decreased by 0.05 percentage points to 79.92% compared to last week, with some enterprises in Shandong and Guangxi undergoing maintenance and a decline in operating production capacity. As of the end of June, the inventory in alumina enterprises' factories increased by 81,000 tons [3]. - Affected by factors such as the high - temperature off - season, high aluminum prices, insufficient profit margins, and weak downstream demand, the start - up rate of the aluminum processing industry decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 58.6% compared to last week [3]. - On July 10, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in the main domestic consumption areas was 466,000 tons, a decrease of 12,000 tons from Monday and 8,000 tons from last Thursday. Although the ingot - casting volume of some electrolytic aluminum plants has increased, the arrival volume is still low, resulting in a short - term reduction in social inventory of aluminum ingots [3].

Group 1 - Silver TD prices have shown a significant increase, currently reported at 9009 yuan/kg, with a rise of 1.77% from the opening price of 8890 yuan/kg [1][4] - The highest price reached today was 9039 yuan/kg, while the lowest was 8885 yuan/kg, indicating a bullish short-term trend in the silver market [1][4] - Resistance levels for silver TD are identified between 9040-9050 yuan/kg, with support levels at 8770-8780 yuan/kg [4] Group 2 - San Francisco Fed President Daly indicated that the timing for interest rate cuts is approaching, suggesting that two rate cuts this year are a possible outcome, although this prediction is subject to various uncertainties [3] - Daly emphasized the need for the Fed to balance the decision to cut rates to maintain economic stability, noting that inflation is gradually returning to the 2% target but has not fully achieved it [3] - There is a divergence within the Fed regarding the economic outlook, with some members, like Governor Waller, advocating for a more aggressive approach to rate cuts [3]

热点资讯 1. 7月10日，中共中央政治局委员、外交部长王毅在吉隆坡会见俄罗斯外长拉夫罗夫。双方就伊朗核问题交换意见。拉夫罗夫 介绍了俄方立场考虑。王毅表示，武力换不来和平，施压不解决问题，对话谈判才是根本出路。 2. 当地时间7月9日，特朗普宣布对铜征50%关税。中国外交部发言人毛宁对此表示：这个问题我们立场非常明确，我们一贯反 对泛化国家安全概念，我们也始终认为关税战、贸易战没有赢家，滥施关税不符合任何一方的利益。 3. 商务部回应美商务部长称可能于8月初与中方谈判代表会面：目前，双方在多个层级就经贸领域各自关切保持密切沟通。 早盘速递 2025/7/11 4. 美联储官员穆萨莱姆表示， 当前经济形势良好， 关税的具体影响可能要到今年晚些时候或明年初才会完全显现出来。 5.旧金山联储主席戴利表示，她仍认为今年可能会有两次降息，并指出关税对价格的影响较预期更为温和的可能性正在上升。 重点关注 烧碱、纯苯、焦煤、尿素、菜油 夜盘表现 板块表现 -2.00 -1.50 -1.00 -0.50 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 板块涨跌幅（%） 非金属建材, 2.75% 贵金属, 27.19% 油脂油料, ...