星展 银行经济学家Radhika Rao表示，由于信号相互矛盾，市场对印度央行周五的利率决议存在分歧。 Rao认为，印度央行的行动将取决于政策制定者对低于目标的通胀（这使得实际利率缓冲保持在相当大 的水平）或强劲的第二季度经济增长报告的权衡。该行基线情景是温和降息，其前提是2026财年的通胀 路径不仅比印度央行的预测低50至60个基点，而且已经低于2%-6%的目标区间。尽管有降息基础，但卢 比本周的剧烈波动为利率决定注入了不确定性。Rao认为印度央行将会避免提供明确的货币方向指引， 她预计，关于潜在的公开市场操作的公告，可能会在利率决议时间线之外发布。 ...

Core Viewpoint - International silver prices are experiencing fluctuations, with recent data supporting a bullish outlook due to expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [1][2] Group 1: Market Data - As of Thursday, international silver prices are reported at $58.54 per ounce, with a peak of $58.75 and a low of $58.28 during the trading session [1] - The ADP employment report for November indicated a decrease of 32,000 jobs, contrasting with market expectations of an increase of 40,000 jobs, which has heightened the significance of this data [1] - The market anticipates an 89% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the upcoming FOMC meeting [1] Group 2: Technical Analysis - Following the ADP data release, international silver prices reached a historical high of $58.98 before retreating to close at $58.45 per ounce [2] - Despite a dip to a daily low of $57.54, the upward trend in silver prices remains intact, although a "moderate divergence" between price movements and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) may indicate a potential pullback [2] - If a pullback occurs, the initial support area is projected to be between $53.80 and $54.00, with further testing of the 50-day moving average at $50.25 [2] - Conversely, a strong buying momentum that breaks through the $59.00 level could target $60.00, potentially setting new historical highs [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that President Trump is signaling a potential successor for the Federal Reserve Chair, with Kevin Hassett being a likely candidate [1][3][10] - Trump has been critical of current Chair Powell's approach to interest rate cuts, indicating a desire for a more aggressive monetary policy from his successor [5][13] - The selection of Hassett could raise concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, given his close relationship with Trump and shared economic views [8][11] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's operational principles are expected to remain data-driven, regardless of who is appointed as Chair [8][11] - The process of appointing a new Chair involves Senate confirmation, and Hassett is anticipated to have a high likelihood of approval [10][12] - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) consists of 12 voting members, and while the Chair has only one vote, their influence can vary based on personal credibility and historical context [13] Group 3 - The market is expected to remain in a rate-cutting cycle, with predictions of 1-2 rate cuts in the first half of the year and an overall reduction of approximately 100 basis points for the year [1][7][14] - The potential for Hassett to align closely with Trump's views could lead to a reevaluation of the Fed's decision-making independence if he is perceived as a puppet [6][12]

Core Viewpoint - The silver market is experiencing significant volatility, with prices recently reaching historical highs, driven by strong retail investor demand and supply constraints [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of December, silver prices have maintained a parabolic upward trend, trading around $58.63 per ounce, with a peak of $59.65 per ounce earlier [1]. - Silver has seen a remarkable increase of over 100% year-to-date, a rare occurrence in precious metals history [1]. - In November, silver futures rose by 18.6%, marking the best monthly performance since July 2020, largely due to retail investors' increased participation [3]. Group 2: Trading Activity - The average daily trading volume of standard silver futures reached 108,000 contracts, a 22% increase compared to November 2024 [2]. - The average trading volume for micro silver futures surged to 75,000 contracts, a 238% increase year-over-year [2]. Group 3: Demand and Supply Dynamics - Analysts highlight that the recent surge in silver prices is primarily driven by retail investor demand, particularly through micro contracts [3]. - The ongoing supply constraints, coupled with strong demand, are expected to provide long-term upward momentum for silver prices [1]. Group 4: Technical Analysis - Silver prices are attempting to hold above the resistance level of $58.60-$58.80 but are showing signs of losing momentum [4]. - A drop below $56.50 could lead silver prices towards the support level of $52.60-$52.80 [4].

Group 1: Precious Metals Futures - Spot gold has surpassed $4240 per ounce, with a daily increase of 0.82% [1][8] Group 2: Base Metals Futures - Shanghai tin futures have shown strong performance, with the main continuous contract rising by 3.59% to 320,440 yuan per ton, marking the highest level since April 2022 [2][9] - The London Metal Exchange (LME) three-month tin futures also increased by 4.21%, reaching $40,685 per ton [2][9] Group 3: Energy and Shipping Futures - U.S. natural gas futures prices have continued to rise, increasing over 4.00% and 5.00%, reported at $4.011 and $4.050 per million British thermal units, respectively, marking the first time since 2022 that prices have touched $5 [3][10] - EIA crude oil inventory data shows an increase of 574,000 barrels for the week ending November 28, contrary to expectations of a decrease of 821,000 barrels, with the previous value being an increase of 2.774 million barrels [3][11] - Gasoline inventories rose by 451,800 barrels, significantly exceeding the expected increase of 146,800 barrels, with the previous value being an increase of 251,300 barrels [3][11] - Distillate inventories increased by 205,900 barrels, higher than the expected increase of 70,700 barrels, with the previous value being an increase of 114,700 barrels [3][11] - Additionally, crude oil inventories in Cushing, Oklahoma, decreased by 457,000 barrels, compared to a previous decrease of 68,000 barrels [4][11] - UBS predicts that crude oil prices will begin to recover in the second quarter of 2026 [5][11] Group 4: Macro and Market Impact - The U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI for November recorded at 52.6, exceeding expectations of 52.1 and the previous value of 52.4, marking the highest level since February 2025 [6][12] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen indicated that certain sectors of the economy are showing signs of weakness, suggesting a need for interest rate cuts [12] - Concerns in the bond market have arisen regarding potential interest rate cuts if Hassett becomes the Federal Reserve Chair, leading to declines in U.S. 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields by over 2 basis points and 1.6 basis points, respectively [12] - In the stock market, major indices closed higher, with the Dow Jones up 0.86%, Nasdaq up 0.17%, and S&P 500 up 0.30% [12] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell by 1.37%, with several component stocks, including Canadian Solar, Huitian Network, and JinkoSolar, experiencing significant declines [12]

英国金融时报援引多位知情人士报道称，债券投资者们针对哈塞特出任美联储主席的可能性警告美国财 政部。他们担心，哈塞特将为了取悦美国总统特朗普而降息。11月份，财长贝森特掌管的财政部曾集中 征求意见。12月2日内阁会议结束后，特朗普在白宫告诉记者们，在场的哈塞特是"潜在的美联储主 席"，他可能会在1月份宣布任命决定。北京时间12月4日02:26，美国10年期国债收益率维持超过2个基 点的跌幅，两年期美债收益率维持超过1.6个基点的跌幅。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary has indicated a shift in President Trump's perspective on tariffs, stating that they are inflationary and do not help boost U.S. industry [1][1]. Tariffs - The Treasury Secretary criticized Costco for seeking refunds related to tariffs, questioning what refunds they should receive if foreign manufacturers lower prices [1][1]. - The Secretary plans to wait for the Supreme Court's decision on the tariff case before considering the use of additional revenue from tariffs for income tax cuts [1][1]. Interest Rates - Some economic sectors are weakening but may benefit from potential interest rate cuts, with a specific mention of the real estate market showing signs of weakness [1][1]. Political Commentary - The Treasury Secretary refuted a recent report suggesting signs of fatigue in Trump's second term, labeling it as completely false [1][1].

那美联储换帅最终对全球资本市场有何影响呢？降息进程是会加快还是会减缓呢？对我们大A又有何影响？ 特朗普已经在筛选新的美联储主席了，虽然海外小作文说鲍威尔要辞职没有成真，但是他的任期也就剩下几个月了。特朗普已经说了他选择的新主席必须是 支持大幅度降息的。 看到这里，你就应该懂了。不管谁当主席，这美国降息肯定是要继续降的，问题就是最终幅度到哪里而已。特朗普希望是要进入长期低利率时代，不过目前 来看，美国经济还不至于回到2008年的状态。再说了美国总统是管不到美联储的事情。要知道鲍威尔也是特朗普提名的，可是他现在也一样跟特朗普对着 干。 那美国继续降息，我们这边会怎么样？你可能会想，美国继续降息，我们不就可以打开降息通道，那就可以继续放水。这些都是老掉牙的事情了，我们的利 率已经足够低了，再降了也没多大意思了。 可是利率降到这么低了，存款还是没有搬家。这说明什么？说明大资金是非常谨慎，越降息说明经济越差，他们宁愿躺在银行里面赚每年1.5%。因此降息 已经不足以拉资金入市了。另外股市已经涨到了4000点，但是银行存款也没少。这也说明你光是拉指数，骗不了人的。股市本质上还是没有变了。大A还是 我们熟悉的大A。 美联储换 ...

【导读】 意外下滑！美国11月ADP就业人数减少3.2万人，创2023年3月以来最大降幅 中国基金报记者 泰勒 大家好，关注一则美国最新经济数据的消息。 "小非农"爆冷！11月就业人数意外下降。 11月，美国劳动力市场放缓势头进一步加剧。12月3日晚间，薪资服务机构ADP公布的数据显示，美国 私营部门就业人数减少3.2万人，其中受冲击最大的是小企业。 随着市场对美国就业前景的担忧加剧，ADP的数据也显示情况比预期更糟。 11月的就业下滑，与10月 向上修正后的4.7万新增岗位形成鲜明对比，也远低于经济学家此前预估的4万人增幅。 从规模看，员工数量在50人及以上的大型企业整体实现了9万人的净增就业岗位；但员工少于50人的小 企业则减少了12万个岗位，其中员工在20–49人之间的企业就流失了7.4 万个岗位。整体跌幅创下自2023 年3月以来最大单月降幅。 ADP首席经济学家内拉·理查森表示："在谨慎的消费者和不确定的宏观环境下，企业近期的招聘节奏一 直忽快忽慢。11月的放缓是全面性的，但领跌的是小企业。" 这份ADP报告是美联储在12月9日至10日会议前拿到的最后一份就业数据。 目前，有期货交易员认为， 美联储 ...

Group 1: Currency and Monetary Policy - Deutsche Bank analysts suggest that if the next Federal Reserve Chair fails to effectively address inflation risks, the US dollar may face downward pressure, particularly if they respond to President Trump's interest rate cut proposals [1] - The expectation of a more accommodative stance from the Federal Reserve could pressure the dollar even before any actual policy changes occur [1] Group 2: European Banking Sector - Morgan Stanley analysts express optimism for European bank stocks, predicting continued growth in a "perfect environment" characterized by economic improvement, stable interest rates, and low unemployment [2] - The Stoxx 600 Bank Index has seen a cumulative increase of 55% this year, significantly outperforming the benchmark index's 13% rise, with several banks expected to double their stock prices by 2025 [2] Group 3: Indian Stock Market - Nomura Securities forecasts a 12% increase in India's Nifty 50 index by the end of 2026, driven by supportive policies and recovering economic momentum [3] Group 4: Global Economic Outlook - BNP Paribas predicts a resilient global economy in 2026, supported by monetary easing, fiscal stimulus, and strong household balance sheets [4] - The bank anticipates US economic growth of 1.9% and Eurozone growth of 1.5% in 2026 [4] Group 5: UK Bond Market - BNP Paribas expects UK government bond yields to remain range-bound in the first half of 2026 before declining in the second half, with a forecast of 4.50% by Q2 and 4.30% by year-end [5] Group 6: Eurozone Inflation - ING economists note that a slight increase in Eurozone inflation does not provide the European Central Bank with a reason to cut rates in December, as inflation remains high and balanced by various factors [6] Group 7: Japanese Bond Market - Bank of America forecasts that Japan's 10-year government bond yield will rise to 2% by the end of 2026 due to wage growth and fiscal expansion [7] Group 8: Gold Market - China International Capital Corporation maintains a bullish outlook on gold, suggesting that the bull market is not over despite recent price increases [8] Group 9: Liquidity in December - China International Capital Corporation indicates that there is likely no liquidity gap in December, with limited risks for the bond market [9] Group 10: Energy Storage Sector - CITIC Securities highlights a significant increase in the certainty of energy storage expansion, driven by strong investment and supportive policies [10] Group 11: Chinese Equity Market - China Postal Securities predicts a "long cycle, structural bull market" for the Chinese equity market in 2026, supported by improving corporate earnings [11]