2026年02月05日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 观点与策略 | 镍：宏观情绪主导边际，基本面与投机盘博弈 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：二月检修减产频出，镍铁预期托底下方 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：关注今日市场情绪变化 | 4 | | 工业硅：下方空间不深 | 6 | | 多晶硅：行业会议情绪积极，或提振盘面 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 2 月 5 日 镍：宏观情绪主导边际，基本面与投机盘博弈 不锈钢：二月检修减产频出，镍铁预期托底下方 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 137,680 | 2,850 | -6,690 | -5,380 | 3,58 ...

Core Viewpoint - KedaLi, a leading manufacturer of precision structural components for power batteries in China, is experiencing high capacity utilization and orderly production scheduling for Q1 2026, despite some impact from rising raw material costs [1][3]. Group 1: Production and Capacity - The company is currently operating at a high capacity utilization rate and is focused on equipment upgrades and capacity expansion [2][3]. - The production schedule for Q1 2026 is progressing as expected, with operations running smoothly [2]. Group 2: Raw Material Impact - Rising raw material costs have had a certain impact on the company, but it is implementing multiple strategies to mitigate these effects, including capacity expansion, technological innovation, and internal management improvements [3]. - The company is actively negotiating price adjustments with clients and integrating supply chains to counteract the adverse effects of raw material price increases [3]. Group 3: Export Tax and Market Conditions - The adjustment of export tax for lithium battery products has minimal impact on the company, with stable operational conditions reported [4]. Group 4: Business Segments and Growth - The energy storage battery structural component business is growing significantly, although power batteries remain the primary revenue source [7]. - The company has a strong capacity advantage to meet increasing customer demand in the energy storage sector, with expectations for robust growth [8]. Group 5: International Expansion - The company is optimistic about the potential of overseas markets, with steady progress on its European production base and ongoing preparations for projects in the U.S. and Thailand [5]. - The global expansion is expected to provide substantial growth opportunities as international clients ramp up production [5]. Group 6: Future Strategy - The company aims to maintain its leadership in the new energy sector through capacity upgrades, technological iterations, and optimization of customer structures [9]. - A "dual-core strategy" is being implemented to develop high-precision reducers and joint modules for humanoid robots, which may become a significant growth driver in the future [9]. Group 7: Product Development - The large cylindrical battery structural component project is characterized by high barriers to entry and growth potential, with production capabilities expected to ramp up steadily this year [10].

Core Viewpoint - The company is actively exploring new application scenarios for its nitrile latex production, aiming to expand its development space in high-value-added fields such as battery adhesives and sealing materials for new energy batteries [1] Group 1: Production Capacity and Current Focus - The company's nitrile latex facility has a designed production capacity of 200,000 tons per year, primarily for the production of high-end medical and industrial nitrile gloves [1] - The current demand for medical protective equipment has entered a normalization phase [1] Group 2: Innovation and Development - The company is focusing on developing new applications to broaden its market opportunities [1] - The self-developed large particle size emulsion MBS has successfully passed pilot testing and is preliminarily ready for industrialization [1]

Group 1: Production Capacity and Utilization - The company maintains a high production capacity utilization rate and is actively upgrading equipment and expanding capacity [2] - The production schedule for Q1 2026 is progressing as expected, with operations running smoothly [2] Group 2: Impact of Raw Material Prices - Rising raw material costs have a certain impact on the company, which is implementing multiple measures to mitigate these effects [3] - Key strategies include capacity expansion, technological innovation, and internal management improvements to reduce costs [3] Group 3: Robotics Business Development - The company focuses on core components in the robotics sector, including reducers, linear joints, and dexterous hands [5] - A comprehensive robotics business system is being developed to enhance industry applications [5] Group 4: International Market Expansion - The company is optimistic about overseas market growth, with steady progress in international projects [6] - European production bases are advancing, while projects in the U.S. and Thailand are in preparatory stages [6] Group 5: Battery Structure Components - The energy storage battery structure components are experiencing significant growth due to high demand [7] - Despite this, the structural components for power batteries remain the primary revenue source [7] Group 6: Future Strategic Planning - The company aims to solidify its position as a leader in precision components for power batteries, focusing on capacity upgrades and technological advancements [9] - A "dual-core strategy" is being implemented to develop humanoid robots and high-precision reducers, creating a second growth curve [9] Group 7: Large Cylindrical Battery Components - The company has the capability to produce large cylindrical battery structure components, with production expected to ramp up steadily this year [9]

Core Viewpoint - The investment delegation from listed companies visited Suzhou to explore industrial development and cooperation opportunities, emphasizing the importance of ongoing communication and collaboration to achieve mutual benefits and project implementation [1] Group 1: Investment Delegation - The delegation was led by Gao Xiaobo, Chairman of Ningbo Gaoqi Enterprise Management Consulting Co., and consisted of leaders from 16 well-known companies [1] - The participating companies span various sectors including artificial intelligence, new energy, electronic information, intelligent equipment, pharmaceuticals, internet information, cultural tourism, and big data [1] Group 2: Activities and Engagement - During the visit, the delegation toured several locations including the Net Zero Carbon Industrial Park, Cross-Border Investment Promotion Center, Tiankang Pharmaceutical, and Mogmenta [1] - Local government officials, including Deputy Mayor Gu Haidong and Secretary-General Xu Ben, participated in the related activities [1] Group 3: Future Cooperation - Both parties expressed a commitment to enhance regular communication, leverage respective advantages, and explore cooperation points to expand collaboration areas and enrich cooperation content [1] - The goal is to share development opportunities and promote the implementation of more quality projects in Suzhou for mutual benefit [1]

Core Insights - Over 2900 A-share listed companies have released their 2025 earnings forecasts, with high-performing companies attracting significant interest from fund institutions [1][2] - Notable companies with substantial profit growth include Zijin Mining and Industrial Fulian, both expected to achieve net profits exceeding 100 billion yuan [1][2] Fund Activity - As of January 31, 2025, 11 companies forecast net profits exceeding 10 billion yuan, with Zijin Mining leading at an estimated 510-520 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 59%-62% [1] - Industrial Fulian is projected to achieve a net profit of 351-357 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 51%-54%, and has garnered interest from 96 fund companies [2] - Fund managers have shown mixed attitudes towards Zijin Mining, with some increasing their holdings while others reduced them in Q4 2025 [1] Performance Highlights - 604 companies expect a year-on-year net profit growth of at least 100%, with 19 companies forecasting growth exceeding 1000% [2] - *ST Songfa anticipates a net profit of 240-270 million yuan, marking a turnaround to profitability, with several funds increasing their positions [3] - Honghe Technology and Baiwei Storage are expected to see significant profit increases, with growth rates of 745%-889% and 427.19%-520.22%, respectively [3] Market Outlook - The market is expected to experience a volatile upward trend as companies release earnings forecasts and annual reports [4] - Fund institutions are advised to focus on companies with strong earnings certainty and industry trends, particularly in sectors like AI and semiconductors [4] - Optimism remains regarding the market's resilience, supported by ample domestic policy space and ongoing capital inflows [4]

Core Insights - Over 2900 A-share listed companies have released their 2025 earnings forecasts, with high-performing companies attracting significant interest from fund institutions [1][2] - Notable companies with substantial profit growth include Zijin Mining, which is expected to achieve a net profit of 510-520 billion yuan, and Industrial Fulian, projected to reach 351-357 billion yuan [2][3] Company Performance - Zijin Mining is expected to see a net profit increase of 59%-62% in 2025, with 78 fund companies holding its shares, including well-known fund managers [2] - Industrial Fulian anticipates a net profit growth of 51%-54%, with 96 fund companies holding its shares, primarily managed by E Fund [3] - *ST Songfa is projected to turn a profit with a net profit of 24-27 billion yuan, attracting new institutional investors in Q4 2025 [4] - Tonghua Dongbao expects a net profit of 12.42 billion yuan, also turning a profit, with new institutional investors entering in Q4 2025 [4] - Honghe Technology forecasts a net profit of 1.93-2.26 billion yuan, showing a significant growth of 745%-889%, with new institutional investors in Q4 2025 [4] - Baiwei Storage anticipates a net profit of 8.5-10 billion yuan, with 40 fund companies holding its shares and several increasing their positions in Q4 2025 [5] Market Outlook - The release of earnings forecasts and annual reports is expected to lead to a focus on companies' performance, with a potential for market stabilization and upward movement [6] - Fund institutions suggest that the market may return to a structure driven by "profit certainty + industry trends," with opportunities in core technology and manufacturing sectors [6] - External factors may create short-term pressure, but domestic policy support and a stable capital market are expected to mitigate significant downturns [7] - Investment strategies are recommended to focus on growth sectors like AI and semiconductors, as well as areas benefiting from "anti-involution" policies, such as new energy [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the GDP targets and economic performance of various provinces in China for the "14th Five-Year Plan" and "15th Five-Year Plan" periods, highlighting adjustments in growth expectations and specific economic goals for 2026. Group 1: GDP Targets and Adjustments - Beijing has set a new GDP growth target of 4.5%-5% annually, aiming for better results [7] - Xinjiang's target is adjusted to an annual growth of 5.5%-6% [7] - Hunan has lowered its target by 0.5-1 percentage points to 5%-5.5% [9] - Jiangsu's target is down by 0.5 percentage points to around 5% [9] - Guangdong's target remains stable at around 5% [9] - Gansu and Guizhou have both reduced their targets by 1.5 and 2 percentage points respectively [9] Group 2: Economic Performance in 2025 - Jiangsu's GDP grew by 5.3% in 2025, maintaining the highest increment nationally [12] - Sichuan's GDP growth was 5.5%, ranking fifth in total and growth rate [19] - Shanghai's GDP increased by 5.4%, with significant growth in industrial investment [27] - Hunan's GDP growth was 4.8%, with a notable decline in fixed asset investment [31] Group 3: 2026 Economic Goals - Jiangsu aims for a GDP growth of around 5% in 2026, with a focus on better results [13] - Sichuan targets a GDP growth of approximately 5.5% for 2026 [20] - Shanghai's GDP target for 2026 is set at around 5% [27] - Hunan's GDP goal is around 5%, with an emphasis on achieving better outcomes [33] Group 4: Investment and Consumption - Jiangsu's fixed asset investment target for 2026 is not yet disclosed, following a 12.7% decline in 2025 [17] - Hunan's fixed asset investment is expected to achieve positive growth in 2026 [37] - Consumption in Jiangsu is targeted to grow by around 5% in 2026, down from 5.5% in 2025 [15] - Sichuan's social retail sales target for 2026 is not yet disclosed, with a 2025 goal of 5% [23] Group 5: Key Focus Areas for 2026 - Jiangsu plans to enhance consumption through cultural and tourism integration [13] - Sichuan aims to develop the cultural tourism industry as a pillar of economic growth [20] - Hunan will focus on digital economy growth and infrastructure projects [31] - Shanghai will prioritize major engineering investments and digital economy initiatives [27]

来源：市场资讯 （来源：亨特hunter） 到昨天微软还在跌，而且创下了财报后的新低。 美股软件股的崩盘还在加速，这两天OTA也开始暴跌，Booking下跌9%，Expedia下跌15%，Airbnb下跌 7%，担心谷歌的Agent替代掉OTA平台。 这里更严峻的问题在于这个逻辑看起来该受益的AI公司并没有进一步的上涨...市场陷入了负和博弈的循 环当中。 AH股和AI相关的大票近期走势也很弱，A股光模块，港股互联网... 我从来不认为AI的叙事会快速结束，但只要叙事松动，对于高拥挤度资产来说就有巨大风险。 高拥挤度背后从来都是极其敏感的脆弱... 销量崩盘的一个月 近期，各大新能源车企都披露了其一月的销量。 这么差的销量市场是有一定预期的。 这里有三个原因： 第一，去年底有购置税的退坡，这使得很多需求被前置了，消费者选择了提前买而不是跨年到了1月再 买，去年买要省不少钱。 第二，国补的以旧换新政策一月公布，但各个省具体执行还需要点时间，大部分省份都是一月下旬才真 的落地开始执行。 说实话，数据真的很难看。 根据统计，目前已披露的新能源车企销量合计约57.5万辆，同环比分别-14%/-43%。 环比下滑很正常 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, Beijing Jinchengzi Technology Co., Ltd., is expanding its capabilities in precision optical control products through the acquisition of Samit, which specializes in high-precision optical components, enhancing its market position in various high-tech sectors [1] Group 1: Company Overview - The company's laser precision processing equipment is applicable in sectors such as new energy, aerospace, automotive electronics, and semiconductors [1] - The acquisition target, Samit, has a long history in the research, production, and sales of precision optical control products, primarily focusing on fast mirrors and high-precision vibrating mirrors [1] Group 2: Product and Market Applications - Fast mirrors are precision optical components that can accurately control the direction of light beams, utilized in image stabilization systems and beam pointing control [1] - Downstream applications for these products include aerospace detection, laser defense systems, laser communication, and laser precision processing [1] Group 3: Strategic Implications - The completion of this transaction will enhance the company's customer resources in the aerospace application field, optimize its industrial structure, and strengthen its profitability [1]