【文/观察者网 邵昀】 因西班牙，将国防开支占国内生产总值（GDP）比例提高到5%，美国总统特朗普暗示要对西班牙征收"双倍"关税。据彭博社报道，西班牙首相桑 切斯26日在比利时布鲁塞尔对此反唇相讥，谴责特朗普此举对西班牙而言是"双倍的不公平"（doubly unfair）。 桑切斯对媒体说："欧洲乃至全世界一直饱受贸易战的折磨，我们——至少在西班牙——从一开始就认为这些关税措施不公平，而且是单方面的。 就西班牙而言，这些措施更是双倍的不公平。"桑切斯强调，特朗普的关税政策通常是针对那些对美存在贸易顺差的国家，但西班牙对美只有贸易 逆差。 英国《卫报》评价，相比其他欧洲国家，桑切斯对特朗普的关税威胁更加直言不讳。英国《金融时报》称，一名西班牙官员说，桑切斯团队对特 朗普的威胁"毫不动摇"，因为上周桑切斯给北约秘书长吕特发公开信，拒绝5%的目标时，马德里方面就已经估算过潜在的美方报复影响，结论 是：关税威胁并不严重。 报道指出，如果美国针对西班牙出口份额大的产品，如钢铁、铝和汽车加税，将不可避免地波及其他26个欧盟成员国，其中也包括那些愿意接受 特朗普5%军费目标的国家。美国当然也可以选择打击西班牙特有的商品，如 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the impending deadline of July 9 for the U.S. government to either reach trade agreements with multiple countries or face the reinstatement of tariffs under the Trump administration [1][3][8] - U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross expressed optimism about reaching agreements with several countries, particularly mentioning that negotiations with India are nearing completion [1][8] - The White House Press Secretary indicated that the July 9 deadline is not rigid and that negotiations could be extended depending on President Trump's decision [4][8] Group 2 - The urgency for trade negotiations is highlighted by the U.S. government's request for countries to submit their best proposals by June 4, indicating a push for swift agreements [8] - Despite claims of imminent agreements, the U.S. has only finalized a framework agreement with the UK, with no comprehensive trade deals yet established with other major partners [8] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary warned that if trade partners do not negotiate in good faith, tariffs could revert to pre-suspension levels [8]

Group 1 - The U.S. government may postpone the July 9 deadline for imposing "reciprocal tariffs," as indicated by recent statements from the White House [2][3] - White House Press Secretary Levitt stated that the July 9 deadline is not critically important and that President Trump could offer agreements to countries that do not reach a deal by the deadline [2][3] - Following Levitt's comments, U.S. stock indices showed positive movement, with the S&P 500 index nearing its record high from February 19, and the Nasdaq close to its record from December [3] Group 2 - Stephen Miran, Chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, expressed that extending the deadline is reasonable for countries negotiating in good faith [4] - Miran noted that while overall tariff rates may not significantly drop below the current 10% level, some countries may achieve better conditions through concessions, while others may face increased tariffs if they do not negotiate [4] - The U.S. has only reached an agreement with the UK since announcing the "reciprocal tariffs," and the progress with other countries has been slow [5]

Group 1 - The S&P 500 index increased by 0.68%, the Dow Jones rose by 330 points with a gain of 0.77%, and the Nasdaq gained 157 points with a rise of 0.75% [1] - White House Press Secretary Leavitt stated that the July 9 deadline for the trade agreement is not critically significant [1] - In the event of a failure in the agreement negotiations, there is a possibility of reinstating reciprocal tariffs [1]

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar is expected to remain under pressure until the expiration of the "reciprocal tariffs" suspension period on July 9, due to concerns regarding the Federal Reserve's independence and credibility [1] Group 1: Currency Performance - The US dollar has fallen to multi-year lows against the euro and Swiss franc [1] - Market concerns about the Federal Reserve's future independence are undermining confidence in US monetary policy [1] Group 2: Economic Implications - The concerns regarding the Federal Reserve could pose risks to the outlook for US interest rates [1] - Statements from the Trump administration may further exacerbate pressure on the dollar leading up to the tariff suspension deadline [1]

Group 1: Tariff Negotiations - The tariff negotiations are currently stalled, with little progress made since Trump's announcement to delay "reciprocal tariffs" for 90 days [4] - The U.S. is in a deadlock with Japan over auto tariffs, and no breakthroughs were achieved during the G7 summit [4] - The market is closely watching how Trump will handle the impending expiration of the 90-day delay, with potential for either further delays or a return to "reciprocal tariffs" [4] Group 2: Federal Reserve Rate Cuts - Trump has publicly pressured the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates by 2 to 3 percentage points, claiming it could save the U.S. over $800 billion annually [6] - Fed Chairman Powell indicated a cautious approach, acknowledging that tariffs have raised short-term inflation expectations, but suggested that a weak labor market could lead to earlier rate cuts [6] - Other Fed officials have also signaled support for a rate cut in July, with a consensus forming around the idea that inflation is no longer a primary concern [6] Group 3: Israel-Iran Conflict - The Israel-Iran conflict has escalated again shortly after a ceasefire, with Trump warning Israel against further attacks [9] - The conflict is closely tied to oil prices, and any escalation could lead to significant increases in oil prices, impacting U.S. inflation and the need for rate cuts [9] - Despite Trump's calls for increased shale oil production, U.S. shale producers have been reducing drilling activity due to various market pressures [9] Group 4: Overall Challenges - Trump faces intertwined challenges from tariffs, Federal Reserve rate cuts, and the Israel-Iran conflict, which collectively represent significant hurdles [13] - The decisions made in response to these challenges will have direct implications for the U.S. economy and political landscape in the near future [13]

越南总理：预计在7月初对越南出口商品征收46%对等关税的暂停期到期之前，将与美国达成贸易协 议。 跟踪全球贸易动向 +订阅 ...

【环球时报综合报道】"今年前5个月美国的贸易逆差或将创下历史同期最高纪录。"彭博社23日报道 称，随着美国"对等关税"暂停期限的临近，囤货效应推升美国与亚洲国家的贸易逆差持续扩大。但进展 缓慢的关税谈判，也为这些亚洲国家对美出口的前景带来了不确定性。 日美之间也尚未达成任何协议。据雅虎财经24日报道，两名日本政府消息人士周二透露，日本首席贸易 谈判代表赤泽亮正正筹备最早于6月26日启程的第7次美国之行，旨在终结当前损害日本经济的关税措 施。 彭博社说，对美出口历史性的增长将体现在本周美国发布的5月份对外贸易数据中，并可能使美国政府 与亚洲各经济体就美国所谓"对等关税"的谈判复杂化。 公开信息显示，目前，美国与亚洲主要贸易伙伴间的关税谈判依然进展缓慢，甚至陷入僵局。《印度时 报》23日报道称，担心对农民造成不利影响以及出于对美国转基因食品相关的担忧，印度政府拒绝了美 国玉米和大豆等农产品以低关税进入印度市场的要求。消息人士表示，谈判已陷入僵局。 据报道，越南、泰国5月出口均创下历史同期最高纪录。其中，越南和泰国对美出口同比均激增35%。 另据《韩国先驱报》23日报道，韩国6月前20天出口额同比增长8.3%，其中 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around the sudden escalation and subsequent de-escalation of conflict between Israel and Iran, highlighting the volatility in geopolitical tensions and its impact on global markets [1][2][3] - Following the announcement of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, there were immediate reports of renewed missile attacks, indicating a lack of trust and ongoing hostilities despite the ceasefire agreement [2][3] - The U.S. President Trump played a significant role in facilitating the ceasefire, emphasizing that both parties do not wish to escalate the situation further, although the situation remains fragile [2][3] Group 2 - Oil prices experienced fluctuations in response to the geopolitical tensions, with WTI crude oil initially dropping by 5% before narrowing the decline to 2.5% and then expanding to a 3.65% drop [4] - Gold prices also saw a slight decrease, with London gold experiencing a drop of 1.34% [6] - The ETF market saw a net inflow of 497.84 billion yuan, with stock ETFs finally turning to net inflows after several weeks of outflows, indicating a potential recovery in investor sentiment [9][19] Group 3 - The articles indicate a shift in U.S. foreign policy focus under Trump, moving from political alliances with Israel to economic cooperation with Gulf states, suggesting a strategic pivot in the region [7] - Trump's comments on the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy reflect concerns over the U.S. economy and the need for monetary easing to address high national debt levels [7][8] - The stock market outlook remains cautiously optimistic, with analysts maintaining a positive view on Chinese equities, projecting potential upward movements in major indices [19]

据上观新闻报道，当地时间6月16日，在加拿大举行的G7峰会首日，日本首相石破茂与美国总统特朗普 就关税问题举行会谈，仅30分钟后，双方不欢而散，未能达成任何共识。这已经是日美之间的第6轮谈 判，此前的5轮也均以失败告终。日本原本寄希望于此次首脑会晤能打破僵局，结果却再次失望而归。 日美之间的关税矛盾由来已久，并非一朝一夕形成。美国推行的"对等关税"政策以及对汽车和钢铝征收 的高额关税，让日本深感不满。自今年4月以来，双方已经进行了6轮艰苦的谈判，每一轮都充满了激烈 的交锋。 特朗普（资料图） 在首轮谈判中，美国总统特朗普突然亲自加入，打乱了日本的谈判节奏。原本计划由日本经济再生担当 大臣赤泽亮正与美国财政部长贝森特主导的谈判，变成了特朗普与赤泽亮正的直接对话。特朗普在谈判 中提出了一系列要求，包括削减美国贸易逆差、取消对美农产品的非关税壁垒以及增加日本承担的驻日 美军费用等，而日本则强烈要求美方撤销对日本的关税。这轮谈判最终没有取得实质性进展，双方仅同 意继续推进事务级磋商。 随后的几轮谈判同样陷入僵局。日本一直坚持将"对等关税"和汽车、钢铝关税等捆绑谈判，要求美方全 面取消高关税，而美国则坚决不肯让步。汽车 ...