Core Viewpoint - The uncertainty brought by U.S. tariff policies is increasingly threatening international trade, particularly impacting key German ports like Hamburg and Bremen [1][2]. Group 1: Impact on Ports - The waiting time for ships at Bremen port has increased by 77% and by approximately 49% at Hamburg port from late March to mid-May [2]. - Other major European ports, such as Antwerp, Rotterdam, and Felixstowe, are also experiencing extended waiting times for vessels [2]. - Labor shortages due to strikes, inadequate infrastructure, and adverse weather conditions are contributing to delays and operational disruptions at European northern ports [2]. Group 2: Causes of Bottlenecks - The adjustment of shipping alliances and terminal renovations are significant factors causing operational bottlenecks in German ports, exacerbated by the unpredictable U.S. tariff policies [2]. - The temporary suspension of high tariffs by the U.S. led to a surge in shipping volumes, further destabilizing the global logistics industry [2]. Group 3: Economic Implications - The potential resurgence of logistics bottlenecks similar to those experienced during the COVID-19 pandemic could lead to significant supply chain disruptions and increased commodity prices [3]. - Political decisions, such as the U.S. tariff policies, can quickly translate into real bottlenecks in ports and supply chains, signaling economic warnings [3]. - Increased transportation costs for smaller cargo due to U.S. tariffs will ultimately be passed on to American consumers [3].

Group 1 - The core point of the article revolves around the recent phone call between the Chinese and U.S. leaders, which aimed to ease trade tensions while also addressing the Taiwan issue, highlighting the delicate balance in U.S.-China relations [1][11]. - The call has raised concerns among Taiwanese political figures about Taiwan's potential marginalization in both economic and geopolitical contexts, particularly in light of U.S. trade policies [1][5]. - Trump's imposition of a 32% export tariff on Taiwan as part of his "reciprocal tariffs" policy is projected to have a direct impact on Taiwan's GDP, estimated between 15% to 20%, indicating significant economic repercussions for the region [3][4]. Group 2 - A recent poll indicated that 66.2% of Taiwanese respondents believe Trump would sacrifice Taiwan's interests for U.S. benefits, reflecting growing skepticism towards U.S. intentions [4]. - The phone call has intensified anxieties in Taiwan regarding its trade negotiations with the U.S., as local officials express concerns about being left behind in regional economic discussions [5][6]. - The conversation between the leaders is seen as a warning from Beijing to the Taiwanese authorities about the risks of escalating tensions, emphasizing that Taiwan is a core interest for China [9][12].

Group 1 - The upcoming fifth round of Japan-U.S. ministerial talks is focused on U.S. tariff policies, with Japan still not receiving any commitments from the U.S. despite ongoing negotiations [1] - Japan's Economic Revitalization Minister, Akira Amari, indicated that the fourth round of talks made progress in understanding each other's positions, but Japan's goal of adjusting U.S. tariffs remains elusive [2] - The U.S. has set a basic tariff rate of 10% and an additional tariff rate of 14% on Japan, with the suspension period for additional tariffs ending on July 9 [2] Group 2 - Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba plans to meet with President Trump during the G7 and NATO summits to push for tariff negotiations, although he acknowledges the complexity of the situation [3] - The U.S. has recently increased steel and aluminum tariffs to 50%, which Japan aims to address in negotiations, as maintaining a 25% tariff on automobiles could cost Japanese companies 1 billion yen (approximately $699,000) per hour [2][6] - Japan is considering participating in the U.S. "Iron Dome" missile defense project, which could serve as leverage in tariff negotiations [4] Group 3 - The U.S. Defense Secretary has urged Japan to increase its defense spending, indicating a desire for stronger cooperation in defense and cybersecurity [5] - Japan has proposed various measures to the U.S. to encourage tariff reductions, including investments in U.S. energy and agricultural products, but has faced increased tariffs instead [6] - The Japanese government is exploring ways to increase its financial contribution to the U.S. military presence in Japan, currently estimated at 211 billion yen (approximately $1.47 billion) annually [6] Group 4 - The Japanese government hopes to achieve results in tariff negotiations by June, as the current parliamentary session ends on June 22, which could impact political stability [7] - The U.S. is seeking to share costs for the "Iron Dome" project, which Japan is interested in for enhancing its military capabilities, but there are concerns about the financial implications for Japan [7]

Group 1 - The U.S. government has raised steel and aluminum tariffs to 50%, applying pressure on multiple countries to submit trade negotiation proposals by a specified deadline, which has sparked widespread controversy and concern internationally [1][3] - The current actual tariff level in the U.S. is the highest since 1938, and if the "reciprocal tariffs" are fully implemented, it will reach the highest level since the 1890s, directly impacting the stability of the global trade system [1][3] - The OECD has downgraded U.S. economic growth forecasts for 2025 from 2.2% to 1.6% and for 2026 to 1.5%, indicating significant negative repercussions on the U.S. economy due to the tariff policies [3][6] Group 2 - Vietnam has been specifically targeted by the U.S. to reduce its reliance on Chinese materials and components, which poses a significant threat to its economy as a large portion of its manufacturing relies on Chinese imports [3][4] - The structural dependency of Vietnam on Chinese intermediate products means that the costs of decoupling will far exceed the benefits gained from tariff reductions, complicating the trade relationship [4][6] - The increase in tariffs has led to rising costs in various sectors, including automotive and construction, with reports indicating an 8%-12% increase in metal packaging food prices in U.S. supermarkets [6][9] Group 3 - The U.S. tariff policy is causing a global chain reaction, with the EU and Japan considering countermeasures, and the uncertainty in international trade rules is leading to a decline in global investment and trade volumes [6][7] - Developing countries, particularly those reliant on steel and aluminum imports, are facing increased cost pressures, while African agricultural nations are losing market share due to increased U.S. agricultural exports [6][9] - The international community is showing a clear trend of division, with many countries refusing to take sides in the U.S.-China conflict, and multilateral cooperation mechanisms are gaining importance as a counter to unilateralism [7][9] Group 4 - China is positioning itself as a responsible global player, with significant increases in investment in ASEAN countries and cross-border e-commerce with Vietnam, indicating resilience in supply chains despite external pressures [9] - The U.S. tariff strategy is seen as an attempt to restructure the global economic order, but data suggests that this approach is leading to a "lose-lose" situation for all parties involved [9] - The future of the global economy hinges on whether unilateralism will undermine globalization or if cooperation can be fostered to create a more resilient governance system [9]

► 文 观察者网 张菁娟 在6月5日的美国众议院拨款委员会听证会上，一场关于"香蕉关税"的讨论意外成为焦点。 据美国公共广播公司（PBS）报道，美国商务部长卢特尼克（Howard Lutnick）在谈及贸易政策时坚称美国可以"生 产"和"种植"香蕉，遭到宾夕法尼亚州民主党众议员迪恩（Madeleine Dean）的驳斥。 迪恩表示，特朗普上任第一天就承诺要降低商品成本，但他现在所做的事效果完全相反，她从桌上拿起一根美国人 爱吃的香蕉为例问向卢特尼克："香蕉的关税是多少？" "香蕉的关税将取决于生产它们的国家。"卢特尼克回答说。 迪恩立即回应："我们无法在美国生产香蕉。" 然而卢特尼克并没有听进去，他继续重申在美国进行生产的优势时，迪恩两次强调"我们在美国种不出香蕉"。 美国主要分布在温带和亚热带地区，缺少种植香蕉的条件。美国的香蕉需求主要依赖进口。 报道称，美国从多个拉丁美洲国家进口这种水果，其中最主要的进口地是危地马拉、厄瓜多尔和哥斯达黎加。 迪恩追问，"关税具体是多少？" "一般是10%。"卢特尼克说。 "没错。10%。沃尔玛现在已经将香蕉价格提高了8%......"还没等迪恩说完，卢特尼克便打断了她的话 ...

Core Insights - The U.S. trade deficit significantly narrowed in April, dropping by 55.5% to $61.6 billion, marking the lowest level in 2023 and reversing the previous quarter's expansion [1] - Imports fell sharply by 16.3%, achieving a record decline, while exports unexpectedly increased by 3% [1] - The reduction in trade deficit is expected to positively impact U.S. GDP in the second quarter, despite potential inventory issues from prior import surges [1][4] Trade Dynamics - The sharp decline in imports was attributed to the implementation of high tariffs, which led to a sudden halt in the "rush to ship" goods before the tariffs took effect [1] - The U.S. trade deficit with China decreased to $19.7 billion, the lowest since the early pandemic, reflecting the impact of tariff policies aimed at achieving fair trade [5] - The trade balance with Canada and Mexico also improved, while the deficit with Switzerland turned into a surplus due to reduced gold exports to the U.S. [5] Economic Indicators - The April trade data suggests a potential positive contribution to GDP, following a 0.2 percentage point decline in the previous quarter [1][4] - However, rising unemployment claims, which reached 247,000, indicate a cooling labor market that could affect economic growth [4] - Adjusted for inflation, the trade deficit narrowed to $85.6 billion, the lowest since the end of 2023 [5]

接着，他扯上中国，声称越南从中国购买商品后再加价卖给美国，因此，"这只是一条中国商品流向美 国的通道"。 "所以，你不会接受与越南的提议？"肯尼迪问道。 "不，这是一笔糟糕的交易。我们才是握有资金的一方。我们才是拥有市场的一方。"卢特尼克表示，美 国想鼓励越南生产产品，他们很擅长生产。 肯尼迪继续发问，"你为什么要谈判贸易协议？你试图让其他国家降低关税和贸易壁垒，以换取我们降 低自己的"。 【文/观察者网 张菁娟】随着关税暂停期限的日益临近，多国政府正加紧与美方展开密集谈判，试图争 取关税豁免，然而，从美国释放的信号来看，单纯的"零关税"让步显然难以满足其胃口。 据彭博社6月4日报道，美国商务部长卢特尼克（Howard Lutnick）在参议院拨款委员会的听证会上回应 共和党联邦参议员肯尼迪（John Kennedy）质询时直言，即使越南决定取消对所有美国进口商品的关税 和贸易壁垒，美国也不会做出对等回应。 "假如越南明天来找你说，'好吧，部长先生，你赢了'，我们将取消所有关税和贸易壁垒。美国能否也 这么做？"肯尼迪问道。 卢特尼克语气坚决地回应称，"绝对不会，绝对不会，那将是我们能做的最愚蠢的事"。 在被肯 ...

特朗普自己挑起的关税战，苦果恐怕要自己吃了。只要各国态度强硬起来，再撑个30天，那下不了台的就是特朗普了。 据路透社报道，特朗普政府向正在与美国商谈关税问题的国家，发出"最后通牒"，希望各国能够在本周三，即6月4日之前向美国提交贸易谈判的最佳方案， 也就是各自能提出的"最好的报价"。 对此，白宫方面回应，发这封"提醒"意味的信函，只是告诉这些国家截止日期将要到来，特朗普期待与它们达成良好的贸易协议。 特朗普为什么要急匆匆地要各国报价呢？原因很简单，因为再不赶紧谈判，就没时间了。特朗普在4月2日发起了"对等关税"，引起全球贸易市场轩然大波。 没过两天，特朗普接到欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩的主动致电，在经过一番"愉快"的通话后，特朗普将这一决定的时间从6月1日推迟到7月9日。 关税政策只是个谈判的筹码，特朗普也不可能直接将其落地实施，因此4月9日，特朗普暂停了对大多数国家的对等关税，暂停期限是90天，将对等关税的生 效期推迟到了7月9日。 如今距离对等关税的生效期，仅剩下5周时间，多国还在就贸易问题与美国进行艰难的谈判。特朗普如今发出这份"最后通牒"，就是在向这些国家施压，以 制造紧迫感，迫使它们做出让步。 值得注意 ...

印度或许将成为首批与美国达成关税谈判的国家，不过想要与美国签订协议，印度就得按照美国的要求，减少与"金砖组织"的合作，如果能"退群"那是再好 不过了。 面对美国明晃晃的鱼钩上，那诱人的鱼饵，莫迪究竟会作何选择呢？美国想要逼印度离开"金砖"提的要求，没准能帮中国的大忙。 第一个要求，卢特尼克谈到了印度从俄罗斯购买军事装备的话题，称这一举措让美国感到不满，如果印度转而从美国采购军事装备，那美国就感到大喜了。 因此，增加对美国军事装备的购买，也是印度必须要做的。 第二个要求，美国不想看到印度与金砖国家有更多的合作，要求印度和金砖国家保持距离。卢特尼克还特意提到了金砖国家内部准备推行的"去美元化"进 程，印度如果与金砖国家掺和在一起，那显然会影响到美印之间的关系。 虽然美国没有明说，但意思很明显，在金砖国家和美国之间，印度必须要做出选择。如果印度能够从金砖组织"退群"，投入美国的怀抱，那美国肯定会给印 度更多的好处。 近日，美国向那些还在与它展开贸易谈判的国家，发出了"最后通牒"，要这些国家尽快提交出"最好报价"，否则距离7月9日的关税生效期，没剩多少天了。 特朗普在4月2日提出的"对等关税"，迅速引起了全球经贸市场 ...

据媒体6月5日报道，越南工贸部周四确认，已在美方设定的截止日期前，向华盛顿提交了回应贸易要求 的文件，展现贸易协商的"决心和诚意"。而此举关乎越南能否避免美国高达46%的"对等关税"重击。 此前央视新闻援引媒体报道称，距离对等关税恢复期限仅剩五周，特朗普政府发出紧急信函要求各国在 本周三前提交贸易谈判的最佳方案。美国政府正在向谈判伙伴施压，要求各国在关键领域提供最佳方 案，包括购买美国工农业产品的关税和配额方案。4月9日，特朗普暂停了对大多数美国贸易伙伴的对等 关税，暂停期限为90天，将高额关税的生效期推迟到7月9日。 消息公布后，越南VN30股指小幅下跌0.2%，出口龙头股Vingroup跌超1%。 当46%的关税利剑悬在头顶时，越南选择了迅速妥协。 该国目前面临46%的"对等关税"威胁，一旦生效将严重冲击其以对美出口为支柱的增长模式——美国正 是越南的最大出口市场。 越南还曾对美国作出过"零关税"承诺。据央视网此前报道，4月4日，越南领导人同特朗普通电话，强调 愿意对美商品实行"零关税"。 风险提示及免责条款 越南率先"妥协"，越美双方同意加快谈判进程 报道称，越南工贸部在声明中表示已提交回应美国贸易要求 ...