Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the white liquor sector is showing significant allocation value, with its commodity attributes being rapidly reshaped, enhancing its fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) characteristics, which will increasingly highlight the competitive advantages of companies that can adapt to FMCG operational logic [1][2] - The new consumption trend is fundamentally a structural dividend driven by channel and category resonance, with retail efficiency improving and younger demographics gradually generating income, leading to a clear new channel and new category-driven consumption [2] - The white liquor industry is currently in a bottoming cycle, with pricing pressure greater than volume pressure, and most companies' short-term performance increasingly reliant on market share gains in core markets [2][3] Group 2 - The white liquor sector shows significant allocation value from a stock price perspective, with potential for dividends as leading companies have dividend yields close to or greater than 3% [3] - Dynamic valuations have returned to historically low levels, with potential catalysts such as stabilization in housing prices and domestic demand policies [3] - The selection of stocks should prioritize companies with market share logic, as the industry is expected to continue evolving [3]

大众品首选新消费、高成长。 白酒：周期寻底，配置价值凸显 。我们延续前期观点，行业 2025Q2 产业景气度环比角度仍在寻底，价 格端压力大于量的压力，从库存周期视角看，白酒产业或完全进入到库存周期后半段，在此维度下，大部 分企业短期业绩表现愈发赖于核心市场的市占率提升，且愈发依赖于腰部及以下单品驱动，份额逻辑演绎 到最后阶段。我们一直强调，白酒商品属性正在加速重塑，其快消品属性强化，能够提前适应快消品运作 逻辑的企业竞争优势会愈发凸显。股价层面，我们认为白酒板块配置价值凸显： 1 ）分红层面有潜力：当 下头部企业股息率接近或大于 3% ； 2 ）动态估值基本回落至历史区间低位； 3 ）后续具备潜在催化因 素，例如房价等资产价格边际企稳，内需政策等； 4 ）选股层面，首选具备份额逻辑的企业。 风险因素：食品安全、产业政策调整等。 报告导读： 新消费趋势下，渠道、品类创新共振，带动大众品业绩弹性释放；白酒产业 周期仍在寻底，但配置价值凸显。 投资建议：大众品首选新消费、高成长，白酒可以更积极。 新消费本质是结构性红利，渠道、品类共振。当下人口周期见顶，伴随零售效率持续优化及年轻群体逐步 创收，消费呈现明显的新渠 ...

4月经济数据出来了，先大家来点详尽的分析，讲的尽可能的直接、客观： 这里面最大的看点是出口韧性比较强。 4 月份，货物进出口总额 38391 亿元，同比增长 5.6% 。其中，出口 22645 亿元，增长 9.3% ；进口 15745 亿 元，增长 0.8% 。 这是为啥呢？ 当然是洗澡蟹啦。 举个例子，4月份我国对越南出口增速22.5%，并且越南出口增速也增长到21% 。 手中有打标器，哪里都可以是阳澄湖。 1、工业生产有韧性 4 月份，全国规模以上工业增加值同比增长 6.1% ，环比增长 0.22% 。 1-4 月份，规模以上工业增加值同比 增长 6.4% 。 2、消费靠补贴 4 月份，社会消费品零售总额 37174 亿元，同比增长 5.1% ；环比增长 0.24% 。 还能维持一定强度，主要是靠补贴。 没有补贴的，比如服装鞋帽、烟酒，这种可选消费就是下滑，而 4月销售最好的就是家电、家具， 本 质就是以旧换新政策带来的拉升。 但纯靠这种以旧换新的政策拉消费越来越吃力了，家具和通讯器材比上个月来说，分别下降了8.7%和 4.8%。 毕竟对于绝大部分人来说，家具和手机等产品使用的时间比较长，比如手机最快也要 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The consumer market has shown significant structural differentiation and opportunities. New consumption sectors such as trendy toys, pet economy, and AI+ have emerged, while traditional sectors like liquor have faced challenges due to economic pressure [21]. - Different stages of the consumer market are characterized by distinct investment styles. For example, in the core - asset - dominated stage, low - turnover and growth - style consumer funds outperformed; in the market - oscillation stage, value - style funds with flexible and diversified holdings had an edge [36][57]. - The performance of consumer funds is closely related to macro - economic conditions, policy support, and market sentiment. In weak market environments, dividend - value style funds with strong stock - picking abilities tend to perform better [70]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Consumption Market Historical Review - **Core Asset Dominated (20190101 - 20210210)**: The market trended upward. The relaxation of domestic policies, inflow of foreign capital, and economic recovery promoted investment opportunities in the consumer sector, especially in the liquor industry. The CSI Liquor Index rose over 350% [13]. - **Repeated Oscillation (20210218 - 20230116)**: Factors such as the pandemic, macro - economic pressure, and geopolitical issues led to market oscillations. There were structural rotation opportunities in high - end consumption, pig farming, and other sectors [13]. - **Oscillation Decline (20230117 - 20240202)**: The market first rose and then declined. The weak economic recovery and low consumer confidence led to a decline in the consumer industry, especially in the real - estate post - cycle and food and beverage industries. The CSI Liquor Index fell nearly 38% [21]. - **New Consumption Dominated (20240205 - 20250415)**: The consumer market showed structural differentiation. New consumption sectors such as trendy toys, pet economy, and AI+ performed well, while the liquor industry still faced pressure. The CSI Liquor Index fell 3.8%, and the Xinhua SHS Emerging Consumption Index rose 53% [21]. 3.2 Consumption Fund Holdings - **Stock - holding Proportion**: The proportion of liquor holdings in consumer funds reached a peak in 2023 (about 41%) and then declined to about 30% in 2024. The proportion of new - consumption holdings increased from about 10% in 2019 to 25.7% at the end of 2024 [29]. - **Stock - holding Contribution**: Liquor has been the main source of continuous contribution to consumer funds since 2019. New - consumption stocks have made significant contributions since 2024, with companies like Pop Mart leading the way [29]. - **HK Stock Holdings**: Consumer funds' holdings of HK stocks are mainly concentrated in the new - consumption field. The proportion of HK - stock holdings increased in 2020 and 2024, mainly due to the layout of new consumption [33]. 3.3 Fund Return Sources and Portraits - **Stage One (20190101 - 20210210)**: High - growth consumer funds with low turnover and high retention of heavy - position stocks outperformed. The expansion of liquor channels and the upgrade of price ranges drove the growth of the consumer market [36]. - **Stage Two (20210218 - 20230116)**: Funds with a balanced and slightly value - oriented style and flexible and diversified holdings performed better. The moderate increase in CPI and the decline in PPI benefited the consumer industry, and value - type consumer stocks showed high defensive properties [57]. - **Stage Three (20230117 - 20240202)**: Funds with a deep - value style and strong alpha capabilities outperformed. In a weak market environment, low - volatility, high - dividend stocks became a safe haven for funds [70]. - **Stage Four (20240205 - 20250411)**: The elasticity and stock - picking ability of consumer funds in the new - consumption field became the key to returns. Traditional companies' second - growth curves and the growth of new consumption drove the performance of consumer funds [84]. 3.4 Consumption ETF Funds - **A股 - related ETFs**: There are ETF funds corresponding to 5 A - share consumer comprehensive indices, with the largest number (3) and total scale (27 billion yuan) corresponding to the CSI Consumption 50 Index [95]. - **港股 - related ETFs**: There are ETF funds corresponding to 5 HK - stock consumer comprehensive indices, with the largest number (4) corresponding to the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumption Index and the largest total scale (33.5 billion yuan) corresponding to the Hang Seng Consumption Index [95].

中原期货研究所 晨会纪要 2025 第（87）期 发布日期：2025-05-19 | | | | 商品指数每日市场跟踪 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 宏观指标 | | 2025/5/19 08:00 | 2025/5/16 15:00 | 涨 跌 | 涨跌幅/% | | 道琼斯工业指数 | | 42654.74 | 42322.75 | 331.990 | 0.784 | | 纳斯达克指数 | | 19211.10 | 19112.32 | 98.780 | 0.517 | | 标普500 | | 5958.38 | 5916.93 | 41.450 | 0.701 | | 恒生指数 | | 23345.05 | 23453.16 | -108.110 | -0.461 | | SHIBOR隔夜 | | 1.65 | 1.40 | 0.250 | 17.806 | | 美元指数 | | 100.74 | 100.98 | -0.244 | -0.241 | | 美元兑人民币(CFETS) | | 7.20 | 7.20 | 0 | 0 | | 主力 ...

Group 1: Core Insights - The external trade environment is highly uncertain, and traditional domestic consumption is relatively weak, making it difficult to show an overall upward trend [1] - The investment logic suggests a bottom-up approach to select leading companies with differentiated competitive advantages and strong earnings certainty [1] Group 2: New Consumption Sectors - The overall consumption is under pressure, but some sub-sectors show high growth potential; companies are adapting to channel changes and industry opportunities [2] - In the personal care sector, domestic brands are leveraging e-commerce and product upgrades to gain market share, with recommendations for companies like Baiya Co. and Haoyue Care [2] - The AI glasses sector is expected to see accelerated product launches by 2025, with Mingyue Lens recommended for its unique advantages [2] - The emotional consumption sector is gaining traction, with recommendations for companies like Chenguang Co. that are investing in IP resources [2] Group 3: Traditional Consumption Sectors - The home and paper industries face pressure from the overall consumption environment; investment points include the ability of quality stocks to leverage policy support and operational advantages [4] - In the home sector, the expansion of subsidy categories and amounts in 2025 presents opportunities for leading companies like Oppein and Sophia [4] - The paper industry is closely tied to economic cycles, with recommendations for Sun Paper due to its cost control capabilities and upcoming production [4] Group 4: Export Sector - Due to high uncertainty regarding tariffs, companies with established overseas production capabilities are at an advantage; some export sectors are highly dependent on U.S. and Vietnamese production [5] - Companies with lower exposure to U.S. exports are considered safer, while certain sub-sectors still show high growth potential due to rigid demand and changing consumption habits [5] - Recommended companies in the export sector include Jiayi Co., Gongchuang Turf, and Deou Technology [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the strong market performance of Shubao International, with its stock price increasing significantly since its listing, reflecting growing investor confidence in consumer companies [1][2] - Shubao International, as part of the Jinjiang enterprise group, benefits from the "going global + maternal and infant" concept, aligning with the current preference for high-growth emerging consumer stocks in the Hong Kong market [2][3] - The company has experienced a notable shift in its business structure, with revenue growth slowing down, particularly in its ODM (Original Design Manufacturer) segment, which saw only a 1.1% increase in 2024 [3][4] Group 2 - In 2024, Shubao International reported a revenue of approximately 753 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.01%, but this growth rate is significantly lower than the previous years [3][4] - The company's revenue from its ODM business accounted for 60.1% of total revenue, while the brand product business saw a substantial increase of 44.6%, driven mainly by a doubling of sales in female hygiene products [3][4] - The decline in revenue from the Russian market, which dropped by 31.9% year-on-year in early 2024, has contributed to the overall slowdown in revenue growth [6][8] Group 3 - The shift in focus from the "infant" market to the "female" market is a response to the saturation of the infant care market, which has been negatively impacted by declining birth rates in China and Russia [8][9] - The global female hygiene products market is projected to reach approximately $89.29 billion by 2033, with a compound annual growth rate of about 7.8% from 2024 to 2033, indicating a significant growth opportunity for Shubao International [9][10] - Despite the potential in the female hygiene market, Shubao International faces challenges due to low barriers to entry and intense competition from both domestic and international brands [10]

□本报记者王雪青 "消费投资正在经历变革。"中金基金权益部基金经理高大亮在接受中国证券报记者专访时表示，随着潮 玩IP、宠物经济等"情绪消费"崛起，硬折扣、量贩零食等新销售模式改变了渠道生态，消费投资的底层 逻辑正在经历深刻重构。 今年以来，新消费赛道崛起，港股市场中的泡泡玛特、老铺黄金、蜜雪集团等表现亮眼；A股市场中的 食品零售、宠物经济、美妆个护等具有新消费特征的公司持续受到资金追捧。 "港股市场消费股的强势上涨打开了A股市场新消费标的的估值空间。"在高大亮看来，消费板块的投资 逻辑已从传统的"白马为王"转向"新消费突围"。当下，情绪价值与渠道效率成为把握板块结构性投资机 会的关键。未来，消费企业对新渠道、新品类、新需求的前瞻布局，或成为基金经理捕捉超额收益的关 键因素。 回顾近年消费市场的主要变化，高大亮表示："最大的变化是服务型消费占比逐步提高。以新产品、新 业态、新技术、新服务为代表的四大类型新消费迅速崛起。" 四大类新消费究竟是什么？据介绍，新产品有盲盒、潮玩等；新业态有硬折扣超市、城市奥莱、会员店 等；新技术指的是技术进步带来全新消费产品，典型如人工智能(AI)浪潮下的自动驾驶、智能穿戴、机 器 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the Chinese financial market, including sectors such as technology, finance, shipping, new consumption, and the robotics industry. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Market Reaction to US-China Geneva Talks**: The results exceeded expectations, but the market exhibited a "sell news" trend, indicating profit-taking behavior after positive news, leading to significant external influence on short-term market sentiment [1][2] 2. **Financial Sector Performance**: The financial sector saw a significant volume increase, interpreted as a reallocation by public funds. However, this did not substantially enhance market risk appetite or profit-making effects [3] 3. **Market Structure**: The market displayed a "barbell" structure with strong performance in micro-cap and large-cap stocks, while the technology sector, particularly the Sci-Tech 50 index, underperformed due to new public fund regulations and disappointing earnings from major tech companies [4] 4. **Market Sentiment and Profitability**: Despite a rebound in market sentiment, the actual profit-making experience for investors was average, with rapid rotation among various sectors indicating a lack of a clear market leader [5] 5. **Emerging Investment Directions**: Key areas of interest include export order acquisition, new consumption trends (e.g., pet economy), and biopharmaceuticals, particularly related to ergotamine [6][10] 6. **Robotics Industry Dynamics**: The robotics sector is experiencing various catalysts, but it is not expected to see a broad-based rally. Focus is on lightweight materials and upcoming events like the robotics combat competition [8] 7. **Automotive Industry Policy Changes**: New regulations mandating the installation of emergency braking systems in light vehicles were introduced, positively impacting related sectors [9] 8. **Reorganization Policy Highlights**: The new reorganization policy increases regulatory tolerance for financial changes and introduces mechanisms to encourage private equity participation in mergers and acquisitions, which is expected to enhance the success rate of such activities [15][17] 9. **Short-term and Long-term Market Impact**: In the short term, the new policy may benefit companies with pending merger plans, while in the long term, it is expected to accelerate the pace of asset securitization and integration in strategic sectors like semiconductors and rare earths [18] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Market Volume Trends**: The average daily trading volume decreased by 870 billion, indicating a contraction in market activity [2] 2. **Sector-Specific Performance**: The North Stock 50 index saw a rise of over 3%, while the technology sector faced significant declines due to regulatory impacts and underwhelming capital expenditures from major firms [4] 3. **Investor Sentiment**: The market sentiment index rebounded by over 4.6%, but the actual experience of profit-making remained limited, suggesting a cautious approach among investors [5] 4. **Potential in Rare Earths and Strategic Metals**: Recent government actions against rare earth smuggling have led to price volatility, benefiting compliant listed companies in this sector [7] 5. **Focus on Emerging Technologies**: There is a growing interest in sectors like solid-state batteries and controlled nuclear fusion, which, despite unclear market leadership, are deemed worthy of early attention [14]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that the value of liquor allocation is stronger, and consumer goods are embracing new consumption trends. The food and beverage index increased by 0.5% from May 12 to May 16, ranking 15th among 28 sub-industries, underperforming the CSI 300 by approximately 0.6 percentage points. Sub-industries such as health products (+8.5%), baked goods (+2.4%), and dairy products (+1.5%) performed relatively well [3][10][12] - The report indicates that liquor companies are experiencing slow revenue growth, which is already anticipated by the market. This is due to demand remaining at a low level and companies reducing channel burdens. The report suggests that liquor is currently at a bottom range, with signs of marginal recovery in business demand and a pragmatic approach from liquor companies to reduce supply growth to alleviate channel pressure. Future performance growth is expected to rise gradually [3][10][11] - New consumption trends are emerging due to changes in business models and consumer perceptions, focusing on consumer demand and reconstructing consumption scenarios and experiences. This is reflected in new channels within the food and beverage industry, where traditional retail channels face challenges such as traffic loss and declining profit margins [11] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The food and beverage index increased by 0.5%, ranking 15th out of 28, and underperformed the CSI 300 by about 0.6 percentage points. Leading sub-industries included health products (+8.5%), baked goods (+2.4%), and dairy products (+1.5%) [10][12] - Individual stocks such as Xianle Health, Youyou Foods, and Xiwang Foods showed significant gains, while Bai Run Foods, Ganyuan Foods, and ST Jia Jia experienced declines [12][18] Upstream Data - Some upstream raw material prices have decreased. For instance, the price of whole milk powder increased by 30.6% year-on-year, while the price of fresh milk decreased by 10.0% year-on-year [18][21] - The price of pork increased by 1.8% year-on-year, while the price of live pigs decreased by 3.8% year-on-year [24][25] Liquor Industry News - Moutai's sales through major e-commerce channels grew by over 30% in the first four months of the year. The company is also implementing new policies to boost sales for events and weddings [44] Recommendations - Recommended stocks include Shanxi Fenjiu, Guizhou Moutai, and Ximai Foods. Shanxi Fenjiu faces short-term demand pressure but has high mid-term growth certainty. Guizhou Moutai is focusing on sustainable development and increasing dividend rates. Ximai Foods is expected to improve profitability due to better raw material costs [4][51]