Group 1 - The core strategy of the tariff policy is not merely to increase tax rates but to impose differentiated tariffs on global trade partners, aiming to reshape the global trade landscape [3][5] - The basic tariff rate will cover over 90% of trade categories, establishing a foundation for subsequent differentiated tariffs [3] - Specific countries face varying additional punitive tariffs, with China at 34%, the EU at 20%, Vietnam at 46%, Japan at 24%, Thailand at 36%, and Indonesia at 19% [3] Group 2 - The automotive industry is significantly impacted, with General Motors reporting a 35% drop in net profit for Q2, warning that tariffs will severely affect future business [8] - The steel and aluminum sectors benefit from a 50% import tariff in the short term, but historical evidence suggests this protection is not sustainable [10] - Semiconductor and pharmaceutical industries face tariffs of 25% and up to 200% respectively, which could disrupt global supply chains and lead to price increases [10] Group 3 - North American container shipping rates have surged by 31%, with average annual household expenses in the U.S. expected to rise by $2,940, potentially pushing core PCE inflation beyond warning levels [10] - Multinational companies are accelerating the relocation of production capacities to Mexico and Southeast Asia to avoid high tariffs, indicating a significant shift in the global trade system [12] - The OECD predicts that U.S. GDP growth may fall below 1% by 2025, highlighting the risk of stagflation with high inflation and low growth [12] Group 4 - China has implemented counter-tariffs on key U.S. products, with semiconductor equipment tariffs reaching 125%, affecting U.S. military production [12] - The EU plans to impose 25% tariffs on U.S. whiskey and automobiles, although its response is limited by energy dependence on U.S. liquefied natural gas [12] - A global backlash is prompting countries to accelerate multilateral trade cooperation and develop alternative settlement mechanisms to reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar [12]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant impact of Trump's tariffs on Asian automotive manufacturers, leading to a drastic decline in profits and a reshaping of the global automotive market competition [1][2]. - Mitsubishi Motors reported a near-total wipeout of its net profit for the second quarter, dropping from 29.5 billion yen (approximately 201 million USD) to almost zero, facing unprecedented challenges due to high tariffs and increased costs [2][3]. - Hyundai Motor Group experienced a 22% year-on-year decline in net profit for the second quarter, with losses attributed to tariffs amounting to 828 billion won (approximately 604 million USD), despite achieving the highest global sales since 2020 [2][3]. Group 2 - Japan successfully negotiated a reduction in automotive tariffs from a threatened 27.5% to 15%, providing significant relief for its automotive exporters, particularly benefiting companies like Mazda, Subaru, and Mitsubishi [3]. - In contrast, South Korea faces greater pressure as its automotive exports are still subject to a 25% tariff imposed by Trump, prompting the government to seek similar tariff reductions as Japan [3]. - The South Korean government is considering strategic concessions on certain agricultural imports in negotiations regarding tariffs with the U.S., indicating a complex trade dynamic [3].

本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不 做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状 | | 集运指数（欧线）期货日报 | | | | 2025/7/24 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 数据指标 最新 | | | | 环比 | | EC主力收盘价 | 2244.900 1583.9 | | 32.6↑ EC次主力收盘价 | | +57.00↑ | | 期货盘面 | EC2508-EC2510价差 661.00 -41.70↓ EC2508-EC2512价差 465.00 | | | | -72.90↓ | | EC合约基差 | 155.60 | | -5.20↓ | | | | 期货持仓头寸（手） EC主力持仓量 | | 9684 | -1355↓ | | | | SCFIS（欧线）（周） | 2400.50 -21.44↓ SCFIS（美西线）（周） 1,301.81 | | | | 35.2 ...

专家认为，日本所获得的协议条款将成为欧盟在后续谈判中设定的"最低基准"。 继美日就15%关税达成贸易协定后，欧盟与美国正就建立类似的关税框架进行最后磋商。 当地时间7月23日，德国总理默茨在柏林与法国总统马克龙举行会晤时透露，欧盟正与美国进行高级别 磋商，"我们现在听到的消息是，关于贸易的决定可能即将作出"。 据报道，美日达成的贸易协议促使欧盟方面不得不接受更高的互惠关税率，以避免可能引发破坏性后果 的贸易战。7月23日早些时候，欧盟委员会称，当前首要任务仍是通过谈判达成协议，以缓解30%关税 的威胁。 全球经济咨询公司BCA研究地缘政治首席策略师格特钦（Matt Gertken）在7月23日的研讨会上表示，当 日本达成贸易协议后，欧盟可能无法坚持对抗足够长时间从而迫使特朗普降低关税，只能接受能争取到 的条件。 洛桑国际管理发展学院（IMD）商学院地缘政治与战略学教授埃文尼特（Simon Evenett）认为，日本所 获得的协议条款将成为欧盟在后续谈判中设定的"最低基准"。 值得关注的是，美日协议中将汽车关税设定为15%，这一数字显著低于美国现行的27.5%汽车关税水 平。欧盟官员表示，华盛顿在汽车关税议题上 ...

7月24日国内黄金市场动态：国内品牌金店金价出现下跌，跌幅不大，价格对比之前还是高了很多。其 中，周生生黄金跌的最多，下跌14元/克，报价1015元/克，比最高价金店低了1元/克。上海中国黄金不 涨不跌，报价981元/克，还是最低价金店。今日最高与最低金店间价差缩小至35元/克。 具体各大品牌金店最新价格见下表格： 今日金价 单位 变动幅度 涨跌 老庙黄金价格 1012 元/克 11 1016 元/克 7 跌 周大福黄金价格 跌 六福黄金价格 1016 元/克 7 跌 周六福黄金价格 996 元/克 7 跌 今日金店黄金价格一览（2025年7月24日） 金店报价 金至尊黄金价格 1016 元/克 7 跌 老凤祥黄金价格 1014 元/克 10 跌 潮宏基黄金价格 1015 元/克 1016 元/克 7 跌 周生生黄金价格 14 跌 菜百黄金价格 992 元/克 0 平 上海中国黄金价格 981 元/克 0 平 今日金店金价转跌，铂金价格继续下跌。还是周生生黄金，今日铂金饰品价格下跌11元/克，报价572 元/克。如果还想了解其他品牌铂金报价？欢迎留言告诉我们！我们将及时汇总更新，帮您掌握最新行 情。 今日黄金 ...

Group 1 - The ongoing trade negotiations between the EU and the US are tense due to the impending 30% tariff threat set for August 1, prompting the EU to seek an agreement before the deadline [3][4] - The EU is preparing a retaliatory tariff plan targeting $109 billion worth of US goods, which will be submitted for review by EU member states on July 24 [3] - The proposed tariffs will cover multiple sectors, including agriculture and industrial products, indicating a strong stance from the EU in the trade conflict [3][4] Group 2 - If the 30% tariffs are implemented, EU governments have agreed to initiate a series of "counter-coercion" measures that may extend beyond goods to include services and other sectors like finance and technology [4] - The EU's strategy is bolstered by the unity of its 27 member states and their significant reliance on the US market [4] Group 3 - In the silver market, paper silver is currently trading above 8.966, with a recent opening at 9.023 and a current price of 8.975, reflecting a decrease of 0.55% [1] - The highest price reached today was 9.041, while the lowest was 8.911, indicating a short-term oscillating trend in paper silver [1][5] - Key resistance levels for paper silver are noted at the 9.025-9.041 range, while support levels are identified at 8.977-8.911 [5]

Core Viewpoint - Nokia's second-quarter performance was negatively impacted by tariffs and a weakening dollar, leading to a revenue increase of only 2% to €4.55 billion, which fell short of market expectations [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Adjusted operating profit for the second quarter was €301 million (approximately $354 million), a 29% decline from €423 million in the same period last year, significantly below the Bloomberg analyst average expectation of €399 million [1] - Nokia has lowered its full-year operating profit guidance to between €1.6 billion and €2.1 billion, down from a previous high of €2.4 billion [1] Group 2: Market Conditions - The ongoing trade war initiated by the Trump administration has disrupted global supply chains, adversely affecting various industries, including Nokia [1] - Operators are hesitant to invest in expensive network upgrades, which has intensified competition between Nokia and its rival Ericsson [1][2] Group 3: Management Response - CEO Pekka Lundmark emphasized the need for continuous improvement in operations to enhance speed, efficiency, and focus on core business value creation [2] - The company is working on integrating corporate functions, streamlining workflows, and fostering a more cohesive corporate culture to leverage operational efficiencies [2] Group 4: Stock Performance - Following the downgrade of its earnings guidance, Nokia's stock experienced a significant drop in the Helsinki stock market, with a year-to-date decline of 12% [3]

Group 1: Political Pressure on Monetary Policy - Former President Donald Trump publicly called for an immediate 300 basis point interest rate cut, arguing that each 1% increase costs the U.S. an additional $360 billion annually in interest payments, suggesting a potential savings of over a trillion dollars with a 3% cut [2][4] - Trump's sudden shift in tone regarding Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, stating he is "unlikely" to fire him, reflects pressure from Republican lawmakers warning that such an action could lead to a market crash [4] - Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin announced that the process for selecting the next Federal Reserve Chairman has officially begun, hinting at potential changes in leadership that could impact market stability [4][6] Group 2: Economic Data and Market Reactions - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.7% year-over-year, marking a four-month high, while core CPI increased by 2.9%, significantly above the Federal Reserve's 2% target [4][6] - The Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President, known for her hawkish stance, emphasized the need to maintain a 4.25% interest rate for 6 to 12 months to avoid repeating the stagflation of the 1970s [6] - A survey indicated that 88% of manufacturing firms and 82% of service firms plan to pass on tariff costs to consumers, further complicating the inflation landscape [6] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Technology Sector - Despite a nearly 1% drop in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nvidia's stock surged by 4%, pushing its market capitalization above $4.1 trillion, highlighting the contrasting performance within the tech sector [7] - The semiconductor supply chain is showing signs of recovery, with TSMC reporting a 61% increase in net profit for Q2 and projecting a 30% growth in annual sales [7] - The ongoing trade tensions, including a 30% tariff on Mexico, have heightened market volatility and influenced investor sentiment towards safe-haven assets like gold [7][8] Group 4: Financial Market Sentiment - Gold prices struggled around $3,330, while the likelihood of a rate cut in September dropped from 65% to 58%, indicating a shift in market expectations regarding Federal Reserve actions [8] - The U.S. 30-year Treasury yield surpassed 5% for the first time since June, prompting traders to reduce long positions [8] - A survey revealed a decrease in the percentage of investors willing to hedge against dollar depreciation, suggesting a growing underestimation of political intervention risks [8][9]

| | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0013700 | | | 2025/7/24 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 宏观金融研究中心 日素娜 | | 从业资格号:F3023916 | | | | | 内外盘金 | 日期 | 伦敦金现 | 伦敦银现 | COMEX更金 | CONEX日银 | AU2508 | AG2508 | AU (T+D) | AG (T+D) | | 银15点价 | | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | | 格跟踪 | 2025/7/23 | 3423. 43 | 39. 31 | 3436. 40 | 39.66 | 790. 30 | 9467.00 | 788. 50 | 9454.00 | | (本表數 | | | | | | | | | | | 据来源: | 2025/7/22 | 3384. 46 | 38. 86 | 339 ...

巴克莱日本利率/外汇策略团队三名分析师在研报中指出，美日贸易协定短期内可能对日元构成利好。该团队注意到， 日本央行副行长内田真一在协议公布后表态称，该协定将减少不确定性并加快加息进程。隔夜指数互换市场数据显 示，交易员预计日本央行10月前加息15个基点、12月前加息20个基点，较周二预期的9个基点和15个基点显著提升。分 析师补充称，关税相关不确定性消退与日央行加息时间表提前的双重因素，将在短期内支撑日元走势。 在美日达成协议、美欧接近达成15%关税协议的消息提振下，市场对贸易摩擦的担忧大幅降温，风险情绪被点燃，标 普500、纳指再创新高，小盘股领涨。避险情绪消退下，美债收益率全线上涨，黄金跌破3400美元关口。 周四(7月24日)亚洲时段，现货黄金目前交投于3381一线下方，截至发稿，现货黄金暂报3379.88美元/盎司，下跌 0.21%，最高触及3393.09美元/盎司，最低下探3374.55美元/盎司。 由于市场对贸易战担忧情绪降温，全球股市普遍上 涨，打压黄金的避险买需；美联储下周大概率按兵不动，美债收益率反弹，也限制金价走势，日内将可关注欧洲央行 公布利率决议和欧洲央行行长拉加德召开货币政策新闻发布 ...