2026 年 1 月 26 日 公司研究 利润短期波动，旺季加快备货 ——立高食品（300973.SZ）跟踪点评 要点 事件：立高食品发布 2025 年度业绩预告，公司预计 25 年实现营业总收入 42.6-44.2 亿元，同比增长 11.07%-15.24%，预计归母净利润 3.11-3.31 亿元， 同比增长 16.06%-23.52% ，扣非净利润 3.06-3.26 亿元，同比增长 20.61%-28.49%。按照区间中位数，估计 25Q4 实现总营收 11.95 亿元，同比增 长 6.92%，归母净利润 0.73 亿元，同比增长 12.79%。此外我们近期跟踪公司 经营情况，更新观点如下： 高基数下 25Q4 收入增速放缓，促销/奖励费用影响当期利润。1）短期看，公司 25Q4 收入端同比增速环比放缓，估计与 24Q4 同期基数较高、26 年春节较晚存 在旺季错期等因素有关。为提前抢占市场份额、保证各渠道旺季供应，公司在 25Q4 加快备货节奏，11 月中旬后即开始提前备货，同时采取相关返利促销/奖 励方案，以提高销售团队和经销商客户积极性。全年来看，公司 25 年收入实现 双位数以上增长，其中核心 ...

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor sector in A-shares is experiencing a strong upward trend, driven by multiple favorable factors including AI computing demand, a reversal in the storage cycle, and accelerated domestic substitution, leading to increased market attention and active trading in core stocks [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The semiconductor sector has shown significant strength, with leading stocks like Chipone Technology and Xilinx achieving historical highs, indicating a robust structural market [1]. - The trading volume for Chipone Technology reached 4.123 billion yuan on January 23, reflecting strong capital allocation interest and active overall trading in the sector [1]. Group 2: Industry Developments - The domestic semiconductor equipment substitution rate is projected to rise from 25% in 2025 to 35% by 2026, with key equipment like etching and deposition tools exceeding 40% substitution, supported by a 15% procurement subsidy from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology [2]. - A super cycle in memory storage is anticipated, with DRAM contract prices expected to rise over 50% and flash memory prices over 30% by Q1 2026, driven by strong demand and supply shortages [2]. - The National Big Fund Phase III has been launched with a total scale exceeding 350 billion yuan, with 40% of the initial 120 billion yuan allocated to equipment and materials, indicating unprecedented financial support for the semiconductor sector [2]. Group 3: Global Market Outlook - The global semiconductor manufacturing equipment market is expected to reach $145 billion by 2026 and $156 billion by 2027, with China projected to lead in equipment investment at approximately $39.25 billion [3]. Group 4: Benefiting Industries - The semiconductor equipment industry is set to benefit directly from global wafer fab expansions and accelerated domestic substitution, with AI computing demand driving significant increases in equipment needs [4]. - The semiconductor materials industry will see growth in demand for materials like photoresists and specialty gases, as domestic equipment manufacturing increases and global expansions accelerate [4]. - The AI server industry is projected to see a surge in shipments, with estimates of over 3 million units in 2026, further driving demand for storage and computing chips [4].

Group 1: A-Share Market Performance - The A-share non-ferrous metal sector experienced a strong surge at the beginning of the trading day, with both precious and industrial metals performing well, leading to significant profit-making opportunities [1] - Key stocks such as Shengda Resources, Tongling Nonferrous Metals, Guocheng Mining, and Yuguang Gold & Lead reached historical highs, indicating strong market leadership within the sector [1] - The overall market sentiment was bolstered by rising precious metal prices, escalating geopolitical conflicts, and positive spillover effects from the semiconductor industry, resulting in increased capital allocation to the non-ferrous metal sector [1] Group 2: Semiconductor Industry Developments - The domestic semiconductor equipment localization rate is projected to rise from 25% in 2025 to 35% by 2026, with key equipment like etching and thin-film deposition exceeding 40% localization, supported by a 15% procurement subsidy from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology [2] - The National Big Fund Phase III has been launched with a total scale exceeding 350 billion yuan, with 40% of the funds directed towards equipment and materials, providing unprecedented financial support for the semiconductor sector [2] - The global semiconductor manufacturing equipment market is expected to reach $145 billion by 2026, with China projected to lead in equipment investment at approximately $39.25 billion, driving demand within the domestic semiconductor industry [2] Group 3: Demand Surge in Semiconductor Sector - The semiconductor demand is anticipated to surge due to a reversal in the storage cycle, with predictions of over 50% increase in DRAM contract prices and over 30% increase in flash memory contract prices by Q1 2026 [3] - SK Hynix has reported that its chip production capacity is fully booked, indicating a persistent supply-demand gap that will further stimulate demand in semiconductor manufacturing and packaging [3] Group 4: Benefiting Industries - The non-ferrous metal equipment industry stands to benefit directly from the surge in semiconductor equipment demand and accelerated non-ferrous metal resource development, with domestic clean extraction technology breakthroughs driving equipment upgrades [4] - The electric vehicle and energy storage sectors are expected to see continued growth in demand for lithium, nickel, and cobalt, with a projected 60% increase in lithium demand in the energy storage sector by 2026 [4] - The AI computing infrastructure sector will also benefit, as copper and tungsten are essential materials, with semiconductor chips enhancing computing power, leading to increased demand for both non-ferrous metals and semiconductors [4]

Summary of Conference Call on the Electronic Industry and Photoresist Market Industry Overview - The conference focused on the electronic industry dynamics and updates on the photoresist sector, highlighting the current market's vibrancy and key areas of investor interest, including commercial aviation and domestic computing power [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments Domestic Computing Power and Replacement - The domestic computing power sector is gaining attention, particularly regarding major cloud service providers like ByteDance and Alibaba, and their bidding activities [1]. - The domestic replacement trend is significant, especially with upcoming IPOs of major storage manufacturers, raising questions about potential investment opportunities [1][2]. Photoresist Market Dynamics - The photoresist market is categorized into semiconductor-grade and display-grade, with the domestic market size estimated at around 10 billion RMB, with semiconductor-grade photoresists accounting for 70-80% of this market [6][7]. - The market is dominated by Japanese and Korean manufacturers, holding approximately 88% of the global market share, while domestic production is gradually increasing, with a current localization rate of 30-40% [8][9]. Supply Chain and Challenges - The supply chain for photoresists faces challenges, particularly in raw materials and production equipment, which are heavily reliant on imports [15][16]. - Key raw materials include solvents (50-90% of the composition) and resins (10-40%), with domestic production still lagging behind in quality compared to imports [15][16]. Impact of Japan's Export Controls - The recent escalation in technology competition between China and Japan has created investment opportunities in materials, components, and equipment [5]. - Concerns about potential supply disruptions due to Japan's export controls are noted, but it is believed that the impact will not be as severe as anticipated, given existing inventories and the willingness of some suppliers to maintain business relationships [14]. Company-Specific Insights Major Domestic Players - **HuaMao Technology**: Achieved 80-90% production capacity for I-line and G-line photoresists, with revenues exceeding 100 million RMB [17][18]. - **Tongcheng**: Expected to generate 300 million RMB in revenue in 2024, with a 30% growth forecast for 2025, focusing on mid-to-low-end photoresists [19]. - **Nanda**: One of the earliest companies in China to engage in photoresist R&D, currently developing its own resin capabilities [19]. - **Shanghai Xinyang**: Produces I-line, KRF, and ARF photoresists, with a focus on resin synthesis [20]. Additional Important Content - The conference highlighted the potential for accelerated domestic validation and replacement of photoresists due to the current geopolitical climate, with a shift in focus towards local production capabilities [12][13]. - The verification cycle for new photoresist products is expected to shorten from 3-5 years to approximately one year due to increased demand for supply chain security [13]. This summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the electronic industry and the photoresist market dynamics.

Summary of Panel Industry Chain Conference Call Industry Overview - The panel industry chain is experiencing price increases driven by rising costs of upstream materials such as films, which directly impacts panel prices [1][3] - The competitive landscape within the panel industry is improving, with tightening capacity further solidifying the upward price trend, potentially enhancing the gross margins of related companies [1] Core Insights - If polarizer manufacturers can successfully implement price increases, it will significantly improve their operational conditions and profitability [1][4] - Panel manufacturers can leverage the price increases from upstream materials to raise prices downstream, thereby enhancing their own profitability [1][4] - Key areas to focus on during the current price increase include segments with favorable competitive dynamics and low domestic substitution rates, such as panels themselves, TAEG膜, and OLED materials, which are expected to benefit from both price increases and domestic substitution [1][5] Future Development Directions - The future development of the panel industry chain is centered on two main areas: glass substrate packaging technology and solar wing battery technology for commercial aerospace [1][6] - Companies like Innolux and TSMC have begun mass shipments of glass-based chip packaging, while BOE is focusing on perovskite solar wing battery technology [1][6] Capital Expenditure Insights - New emerging businesses such as glass-based chip packaging and solar wing batteries require relatively low capital expenditures compared to traditional panel businesses [1][7] - These new ventures can utilize existing production lines and processes, leading to a higher return on investment, as evidenced by Innolux's successful mass production with significantly lower capital expenditures than traditional large-scale investment projects [1][7] Key Factors for 2026 - In 2026, the panel industry chain is worth monitoring due to several factors: - A favorable competitive landscape with various catalysts driving product price increases [2][8] - Upstream segments with low domestic substitution rates, such as TAEG膜 and OLED materials, are expected to benefit from accelerated domestic substitution [2][8] - New technological expansions in areas like glass-based chip packaging and commercial aerospace solar wing batteries will provide new growth trajectories for the industry [2][8]

Summary of Conference Call on Passive Component Price Trends Industry Overview - The passive components market is experiencing price increases across nearly all categories, including capacitors, resistors, diodes, inductors, and ferrite beads, driven primarily by raw material inflation [1][2][3] - The current price increase is characterized by a more rational market behavior compared to the previous cycle from 2017 to 2022, where speculative hoarding was prevalent [1][6] Key Points and Arguments - **Price Transmission**: Price increases are transmitted in layers; small and medium-sized end customers face price hikes of 30%-40%, while large customers with long-term contracts experience increases of less than 10% [4][2] - **MLCC Market Dynamics**: Although MLCC (Multi-layer Ceramic Capacitors) prices have not officially increased, high-capacity products have seen price rises. Manufacturers are cautious to avoid past mistakes of rapid price hikes [7][8] - **Market Share Concentration**: The MLCC market is dominated by four major players: Murata, Samsung, Yageo, and Sanhua, which together hold 80% of the market share. Strategies include reducing production and increasing agent thresholds [9] - **Domestic Brand Growth**: Domestic brands like Chaozhou Sanhua are gaining market share as customers shift from foreign brands to more cost-effective local options [10][12] - **Future Price Trends**: The trajectory of component prices will largely depend on raw material costs, with increases in silver and copper prices likely to push costs higher [13] Additional Important Insights - **Inventory Management**: Unlike the panic buying seen in previous years, current stakeholders are managing inventory more rationally, purchasing based on actual orders rather than speculation [5] - **Historical Context**: The last significant price surge occurred from July 2017 to the end of 2022, driven largely by human factors and market manipulation, whereas the current situation is primarily influenced by raw material costs [6][14] - **Cautious Market Sentiment**: Despite expectations of price increases, companies are hesitant to expand production capacity significantly, reflecting a cautious approach to market dynamics [11] - **Emerging Demand Areas**: While AI servers and storage are currently stable, the AI glasses sector may emerge as a new growth point in the future [18][16] Conclusion The passive components market is currently undergoing a price increase driven by raw material inflation, with a more rational market response compared to previous cycles. The focus on domestic brands and cautious inventory management reflects a significant shift in market dynamics. Future price trends will depend heavily on raw material costs and the evolving demand landscape, particularly in emerging technologies.

证券研究报告：机械设备 |公司点评报告 股票投资评级 买入 |维持 个股表现 2025-01 2025-04 2025-06 2025-08 2025-11 2026-01 -8% -2% 4% 10% 16% 22% 28% 34% 40% 46% 川仪股份 机械设备 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 公司基本情况 | 最新收盘价（元） | 25.23 | | --- | --- | | 总股本/流通股本（亿股）5.13 | / 5.12 | | 总市值/流通市值（亿元）129 | / 129 | | 52 周内最高/最低价 | 26.90 / 20.06 | | 资产负债率(%) | 48.0% | | 市盈率 | 16.60 | | 第一大股东 | 中国四联仪器仪表集团 | | 有限公司 | | 研究所 分析师:刘卓 SAC 登记编号:S1340522110001 Email:liuzhuo@cnpsec.com 分析师:陈基赟 SAC 登记编号:S1340524070003 Email:chenjiyun@cnpsec.com 川仪股份(603100) 业绩短期承压，看好国产替代大趋势 l 事件描述 公 ...

证券研究报告：机械设备 |公司点评报告 股票投资评级 个股表现 2025-01 2025-04 2025-06 2025-08 2025-11 2026-01 -8% -2% 4% 10% 16% 22% 28% 34% 40% 46% 川仪股份 机械设备 买入 |维持 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 公司基本情况 | 最新收盘价（元） | 25.23 | | --- | --- | | 总股本/流通股本（亿股）5.13 | / 5.12 | | 总市值/流通市值（亿元）129 | / 129 | | 52 周内最高/最低价 | 26.90 / 20.06 | | 资产负债率(%) | 48.0% | | 市盈率 | 16.60 | | 第一大股东 | 中国四联仪器仪表集团 | | 有限公司 | | 研究所 分析师:刘卓 SAC 登记编号:S1340522110001 Email:liuzhuo@cnpsec.com 分析师:陈基赟 SAC 登记编号:S1340524070003 Email:chenjiyun@cnpsec.com 川仪股份(603100) 业绩短期承压，看好国产替代大趋势 业绩短期承压，单 ...

Industry Insights - Samsung Electronics has raised NAND flash supply prices by over 100% in Q1 2026, significantly exceeding market expectations, highlighting a severe supply-demand imbalance in the semiconductor market [2] - The company has completed negotiations with major clients for new pricing, effective from January, following a nearly 70% increase in DRAM prices [2] - Samsung is preparing for a new round of negotiations for NAND prices in Q2, with expectations of continued price increases [2] Company Performance - Zhongwei Company (688012.SH) expects a net profit of 2.08 billion to 2.18 billion RMB for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of approximately 28.74% to 34.93% [2] - The company's plasma etching equipment, a core semiconductor manufacturing tool, is gaining recognition both domestically and internationally, with significant increases in shipments for advanced logic and memory devices [2] - Shengmei Shanghai (688082.SH) forecasts revenue of 6.68 billion to 6.88 billion RMB for 2025, an increase of 18.91% to 22.47% year-on-year, driven by strong global semiconductor demand and successful customer expansion [3] - The company anticipates 2026 revenue to be between 8.2 billion and 8.8 billion RMB, reflecting ongoing business growth trends and order situations [3] Market Trends - The semiconductor equipment market is expected to continue growing, driven by sustained demand for AI computing power, an upward cycle in storage chips, and advancements in packaging technology [3] - TSMC projects capital expenditures of 52 to 56 billion USD for 2026, a significant increase from 40.9 billion USD in 2025, further highlighting market opportunities in semiconductor equipment [3] Related ETFs - The Sci-Tech Semiconductor ETF (588170) tracks the Sci-Tech Board semiconductor materials and equipment index, focusing on semiconductor equipment (60%) and materials (25%) [4] - The ETF benefits from the domestic substitution trend in the semiconductor industry, which has a low domestic replacement rate and high potential for growth, driven by the AI revolution and technological advancements [4] - The Huaxia Semiconductor Equipment ETF (562590) also emphasizes semiconductor equipment (63%) and materials (24%), targeting the upstream semiconductor sector [4]

Core Viewpoint - Shengmei Shanghai (688082.SH) has reported impressive revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026, highlighting its growth in the semiconductor equipment industry and its ambition to compete globally [1][5]. Group 1: Company Performance - Shengmei Shanghai expects its revenue for 2025 to be between 6.68 billion and 6.88 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 18.91% to 22.47% [1]. - The company anticipates its revenue for 2026 to range from 8.2 billion to 8.8 billion yuan [1][6]. - In 2024, Shengmei Shanghai's revenue reached 5.618 billion yuan, with a net profit of 1.153 billion yuan [5]. Group 2: Market Position and Strategy - Shengmei Shanghai holds an 8.0% global market share in the semiconductor cleaning equipment sector, ranking fourth worldwide [1]. - The company aims to invest 5 billion yuan in R&D over the next three years to achieve breakthroughs in new areas such as coating and electroplating [1][6]. - Shengmei Shanghai has successfully entered key global semiconductor markets, including Korea and Japan, securing orders from overseas wafer fabs [6]. Group 3: Historical Development - Founded in 2005 by Wang Hui, Shengmei Shanghai has evolved from a domestic startup to a leader in the semiconductor cleaning equipment industry [3][4]. - The company has developed innovative cleaning technologies, including SAPS and TEBO, which have enabled it to break into markets previously dominated by international competitors [3][5]. - Shengmei Shanghai went public on NASDAQ in 2017 and later listed on the STAR Market in 2021, marking its dual listing in both US and Chinese markets [4].