中金点睛"本周精选"栏目将带您回顾本周深受读者欢迎的研究报告。 01 策略 Strategy 并购重组新征程 >>点击图片查看全文<< 去年4月以来并购重组制度持续优化，市场关注度逐步提升。今年5月16日，并购新规修订正式落地，修改内容主要包括：建立重组股份 对价分期支付机制；明确上市公司之间吸收合并的锁定期要求；提高对财务状况变化、同业竞争和关联交易监管的包容度；新设重组简 易审核程序；对私募基金投资期限与重组取得股份的锁定期实施"反向挂钩"。综合来看，本轮新规进一步加大了对科技创新企业的支持 力度，促进并购市场"脱虚向实"、鼓励企业进行符合企业发展需求的产业并购，同时推动并购重组成为畅通A股退市渠道、完善市场生态 的重要手段。我们在本篇报告中更新了924以来并购重组市场的进展和未来投资方向。 图表："并购六条"以来并购重组行业分布 注：数据截至2025年5月23日。因部分新项目无金额数据，本表以个数计。 资料来源：Wind，中金公司研究部 >>点击图片跳转报告原文<< 2025.05.25 | 李求索 张歆瑜等 02 策略 Strategy 美国还能"扛多久"？ >>点击图片查看全文<< "对等关税"宣布 ...

Summary of Conference Call Minutes Industry or Company Involved - Focus on the global market impact of the "reciprocal tariff" policy Core Points and Arguments - The recent tariff reduction from 145% to 10% exceeded expectations, alleviating short-term market concerns, but medium to long-term risks related to trade restrictions need monitoring, particularly around key dates in July and August [1][2] - The U.S. effective tax rate has decreased to 16-17%, indicating a significant shift in market dynamics [2] - The performance of U.S. stocks, particularly in the tech sector, has rebounded quickly, suggesting that previous recession fears may have been overstated [4] - The current market is characterized by limited upward momentum and constrained downside potential, indicating a state of indecision [2] - The liquidity shock is viewed as an occasional event that presents buying opportunities, with central bank interventions typically proving effective [4] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The recommendation to focus on sectors with strong end-demand and technology innovation, while also capitalizing on short-term trading opportunities in Hong Kong stocks [1] - The expectation that the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation rate will decline to 3.5-4% by year-end, with the Federal Reserve potentially lowering rates 1-2 times in Q4 [4] - The suggestion to wait for U.S. Treasury yields to rise to 4.8-5% before making long positions, as the current yield of 4.5% is deemed unattractive [5][8] - The impact of tariff adjustments on China's market is projected to reduce GDP influence from 3% to 1-1.5%, with Hong Kong's earnings being less affected than A-shares [7][9] - Recommendations for gold investment strategies include dollar-cost averaging or grid trading, given the high levels of market congestion [6][9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The capital market this month was dominated by the unexpected outcome of the China - US tariff negotiation and the judicial discussion on reciprocal tariffs. After the ebb of risk - aversion sentiment, the gold price fluctuated significantly, showing a pattern of "high - opening, low - closing, and then oscillating". The global economy faces downward pressure, with complex tariff prospects and obvious policy divergence between Europe and the US [2]. - In April, China's economic data was quite divided. Consumption and industrial data were acceptable, but investment growth slowed down. The real estate market did not stop declining, and the manufacturing PMI fell to 49.0%. The new export orders dropped sharply to 44.7%, reflecting the impact of US tariffs. Credit demand was insufficient, and the M1 year - on - year growth was only 1.5%. Although the policy side increased stimulus, the real estate sales and land market remained sluggish, and there was still much room for China's economic recovery [2]. - In the short term, gold was impacted by the ebb of risk - aversion, with a decrease in the proportion of non - commercial long positions in COMEX and a reduction in ETF funds. However, the long - term supporting factors remain unchanged: central bank gold purchases, the weakening of the US dollar credit, and the stagflation risk still constitute strategic allocation value. For silver, the supply - demand tight balance continues, but in the short term, its industrial and financial attributes have not yet resonated. The resilience of industrial demand supports the price, and it continues to fluctuate widely [2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Asset Price Deduction of the US Reciprocal Tariff Logic - The capital market was affected by factors such as the repeated tariff negotiations, global capital disturbances, and China's unexpected loose policies. Interest rates declined, the US dollar fluctuated, and the RMB appreciated. The China - US interest rate spread oscillated this month. A - shares soared and then oscillated, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average soared and then declined [8][9]. - The probability of recession in US data decreased, and US Treasury yields increased. Different countries' bond yields were affected by various factors such as debt expansion, inflation, and policy uncertainty. The core logic is that countries are generally affected by debt expansion and policy uncertainty, but the driving factors are different [11][13]. - Affected by factors such as over - supply and the China - US trade war, China's domestic commodity market generally declined this week, especially the black - chain commodities. Precious metals bottomed out and oscillated, and the short - term trading of non - ferrous metals was weak, but they were generally supported [17]. 3.2 US Inflation Stabilizes, and Central Banks of Many Countries Continue to Cut Interest Rates - In April 2025, the US CPI year - on - year increase was 2.3%, the lowest since February 2021, and the month - on - month increase was 0.2%, slightly lower than market expectations. The PPI year - on - year increase was 2.4%, the slowest in three consecutive months, and the month - on - month decrease was 0.5%, the largest monthly decline in five years [21][24]. - The US employment market showed a mild slowdown but still had resilience. In April, non - farm payrolls increased by 177,000, better than expected, and the unemployment rate remained at 4.2%. However, consumer confidence was at a low level, and the retail sales growth in April was weak [27][31]. - Inflation rates in different countries showed different trends. For example, France's inflation rate was stable at 0.8% in April, the lowest since 2021; the UK's CPI year - on - year increase slowed down to 2.6% [35]. - The manufacturing and service industries in the US, Europe, and Japan showed different trends. The manufacturing PMI in the US and the eurozone showed a differentiated trend, and the service industry PMI in the US and the eurozone declined, indicating a weakening of the economic recovery momentum [41][44]. - The balance sheets of the central banks of the US, Japan, and Europe showed a differentiated trend. The Fed continued to shrink its balance sheet, the Bank of Japan's balance sheet was passively reduced, and the European Central Bank maintained a high - level balance sheet [49]. - Central banks of different countries had different interest - rate policies. The US Fed maintained the interest rate unchanged in May, while the eurozone, the UK, Canada, etc. cut interest rates, and Brazil raised interest rates [50]. 3.3 China's Data Raises Many Concerns, Focus on Policy Effects - In April, China's industrial added - value growth rate remained high, with equipment manufacturing and high - tech manufacturing as the core driving forces. However, there were obvious regional and industrial differences, and some traditional industries had weak growth [54]. - In April, China's fixed - asset investment growth rate declined slightly, with a slight decline in general infrastructure investment and a decrease in manufacturing investment. Real estate investment continued to decline, with a significant decrease in new construction and completion areas, and a slight narrowing of the decline in sales area [58][61]. - In April, China's consumer market continued a mild recovery trend, with the total retail sales of consumer goods increasing by 5.1% year - on - year. However, the demand for durable consumer goods was significantly differentiated [63]. - In April, China's credit data was at a low level in recent years. New RMB loans decreased year - on - year, and corporate and household loans were weak. However, government special bonds supported the increase in social financing scale [66][75]. - In April, China's export data showed resilience, with a year - on - year increase of 9.3% in exports (in RMB). The "rush for re - export" effect was an important factor supporting the export performance. Import data showed a complex feature of "quantity - price differentiation" [86][92]. - In April, China's PMI declined. The manufacturing PMI fell to 49.0%, and large, medium, and small - sized enterprises were all in the contraction range. The non - manufacturing business activity index also declined slightly [95]. - In May 2025, China's monetary policy was unexpected. The central bank announced 3 major categories and 10 policies, including providing medium - and long - term liquidity through reserve requirement ratio cuts, lowering policy interest rates, and improving existing and creating new re - loan tools [99]. 3.4 The Impact of Tariff Negotiations and Prospects, Gold Price Bottoms out and Oscillates - Due to the uncertainty of the prospects of reciprocal tariffs, the gold price fluctuated significantly this month. The non - commercial long - position ratio of COMEX gold decreased, and the ETF fund holdings decreased. The US dollar depreciated, and the decline in the US dollar index weakened the suppression of the gold price [112][115][123]. - In the first quarter of 2025, the global physical gold ETF had a net inflow of 226 tons, and the total holdings increased to 3,445 tons. China's central bank has continuously increased its gold reserves for 6 months [124][125]. - In 2025, the silver market continued to be in a "tight balance". The supply - demand gap was expected to narrow by 21% compared with 2024. Industrial demand remained resilient, but consumer demand declined [126]. - In the short term, the shock of gold was mainly due to the demand for risk - aversion, and silver was driven by gold but was limited by the lack of resonance between its industrial and financial attributes. In the long term, central bank gold purchases, the weakening of the US dollar credit, and the stagflation risk still supported the gold price [128][129].

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration is facing significant legal challenges regarding its tariff policies, prompting the consideration of a backup plan involving a two-step approach to implement tariffs more effectively [1][3][4]. Group 1: Legal Challenges and Responses - The U.S. International Trade Court ruled that the Trump administration's use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose tariffs was illegal, which has created a setback for the tariff strategy [3][4]. - Following this ruling, the U.S. Court of Appeals temporarily reinstated the tariff measures, allowing the Trump administration to continue its tariff policies while exploring alternative legal frameworks [3][4]. - The Trump team is considering invoking Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 to impose a broad 15% tariff for 150 days, which would address trade imbalances with other countries [4][5]. Group 2: Proposed Two-Step Plan - The first step of the proposed plan involves a temporary broad tariff, while the second step would involve personalized tariffs for major trading partners based on Section 301 of the same Trade Act [4][5]. - This two-step plan is seen as more legally sound compared to the previously challenged IEEPA-based tariffs, as Section 301 has a history of being used effectively in trade disputes [9][10]. - The Trump administration believes that this approach could maintain leverage in ongoing trade negotiations without interruption from court rulings [4][5]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Implications - The uncertainty surrounding the tariff policies has led to fluctuations in the Wall Street market, reflecting investor concerns about the potential impacts of these legal challenges on trade negotiations [3][10]. - Analysts suggest that if the court's ruling against the IEEPA-based tariffs is upheld, it could eliminate key obstacles in U.S.-EU trade negotiations, paving the way for a more balanced agreement [10][11]. - The potential for a more pragmatic approach from both the U.S. and EU could lead to a resolution that benefits both parties, particularly in sectors like steel and automotive, which are currently under scrutiny [10][11].

如果您希望可以时常见面，欢迎标星收藏哦~ 来源：内容编译自businesskorea 。 5月份，存储器半导体DRAM和NAND闪存的月平均价格连续两个月上涨。 据市场调查机构DRAMeXchange 5月30日报道，5月份PC DRAM普通产品（DDR4 8Gb 1Gx8） 的平均固定交易价格为2.1美元，较上月大幅上涨27.27%。继4月份上涨22.22%之后，连续两个月 涨幅超过20%。 DRAM价格去年9月（-17.07%）、11月（-20.59%）曾出现过两位数的下跌，但从12月开始连续4 个月保持稳定后开始回升。 美国政府宣布征收对等关税并给予90天宽限期，促使个人电脑制造商提前确保库存。市场研究公 司 TrendForce 解释说："PC 公司正在增加内存库存，以利用 90 天的关税宽限期。这一举措尤其 增加了对低成本中央处理器 (CPU) 及其相应的 DDR4 DRAM 的需求。" 5月份用于存储卡和USB驱动器的NAND闪存通用产品（128Gb 16Gx8 MLC）平均固定交易价格 为2.92美元，环比上涨4.84％。 NAND价格从去年9月份开始连续4个月呈现下跌趋势，1月份出现反弹（4. ...

Market Outlook - The company remains optimistic about the A-share market, considering it a very good buying point and the best investment opportunity in decades [1][11][12] - The prediction includes a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which could lead to capital inflows into emerging markets, including A-shares [2][11] Investment Strategy - The company plans to focus on stable high-dividend sectors such as food and beverage, and public utilities, which have dividend yields around 4% [2] - The investment strategy emphasizes acquiring valuable assets with stable profitability and dividend rates [2] Tariff Implications - The introduction of reciprocal tariffs by the U.S. is seen as having a neutral impact on the A-share market, with potential long-term benefits for China's economy by addressing overcapacity [3] AI and Robotics - The company acknowledges the potential of AI and robotics but refrains from investing due to difficulties in identifying suitable companies within this sector [4] Buffett's Cash Holdings - The company interprets Warren Buffett's significant cash reserves and reduction in U.S. stock holdings as a risk management strategy, considering the long bull market since 2008 [7] Gold Investment - The company does not view gold as a valuable investment, citing its historical price fluctuations and the current trend of widespread investment in gold [8] Japanese Market Insights - The company is monitoring the Japanese market, noting the unique low-interest environment and the stability of major Japanese trading companies, which could provide investment opportunities [9][10] Long-term Market Confidence - The company believes that despite short-term volatility, the long-term outlook for the market is positive, with expectations of a recovery in leading companies' performance [11][12]

Group 1 - The U.S. Court of Appeals temporarily reinstated the Trump administration's "reciprocal tariffs" policy, allowing the government to impose tariffs while the case is under review [1] - The Court's decision came after the U.S. International Trade Court had previously ruled against the Trump administration's tariff measures, stating that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act did not authorize such global tariffs [2] - The reinstated tariffs include a 30% tariff on imports from China, a 25% tariff on certain goods from Mexico and Canada, and a 10% general tariff on most U.S. imports, while tariffs on automobiles, steel, and aluminum remain unaffected [2] Group 2 - The market reaction to the reinstatement of tariffs was muted, with minor increases in major U.S. stock indices and little change in the U.S. dollar index [1] - White House Press Secretary criticized the International Trade Court's ruling as "judicial overreach," indicating the administration's strong stance on tariff policies [1]

Core Viewpoint - The White House strongly criticized federal court rulings that blocked President Trump's global tariff policy, labeling the decisions as "judicial overreach" and calling for Supreme Court intervention [1][2]. Group 1: Legal Challenges - The U.S. International Trade Court ruled that Trump's global tariff policy is "illegal," stating that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act does not grant the president unlimited authority to impose tariffs [1]. - The federal appeals court has temporarily stayed the enforcement of this ruling, allowing the tariff policy to continue for now, while the White House has filed an appeal against the decision [1]. Group 2: Political Context - White House spokesperson Levitt criticized the judges, appointed by past presidents, as "radical judges" who are abusing judicial power and undermining the president's mandate from the public [2]. - The Republican-controlled Senate recently rejected a bipartisan proposal aimed at blocking Trump's tariff policy, which failed with a tie vote of 49-49 [2]. Group 3: Economic Strategy - Levitt emphasized that Trump's legal basis for imposing tariffs is sound and necessary for national security, arguing that the U.S. must enhance domestic manufacturing capabilities and reduce reliance on foreign adversaries [2]. - Despite legal obstacles, the administration plans to continue pursuing its trade agenda, indicating that the president has other legal authorities to implement tariffs [3].

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration's tariff actions have faced significant legal challenges, with federal judges ruling against the imposition of tariffs on toy importers in Illinois, indicating that the administration's approach may be unconstitutional and unauthorized by Congress [1][4]. Group 1: Legal Rulings - Judge Rudolph Contreras issued a ruling to block tariffs on toy importers Learning Resources and hand2mind, stating that the Trump administration's tariffs on trade with countries like China are illegal [1]. - The U.S. International Trade Court also ruled against the Trump administration's tariff policies, asserting that the president exceeded his authority by imposing tariffs on countries with trade surpluses with the U.S. [4]. - Both courts concluded that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) does not grant the president the authority to impose such tariffs [5]. Group 2: Impact on Companies - Learning Resources and hand2mind, which employ around 500 workers across several states, argued that the tariffs could lead to their closure despite having survived the COVID-19 pandemic [1]. - Following the court's decision, shares of toy companies Mattel (MAT) and Hasbro (HAS) experienced fluctuations, with Mattel maintaining a gain and Hasbro slightly increasing its gains after initially dipping [2].

据央视新闻报道，当地时间5月28日，美联储公布了联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）5月6日至7日的会议 纪要。这是美国所谓"对等关税"政策宣布实施一个半月后，美联储的第一份会议纪要，以正式文件形式 反映了美联储官员对形势变化的看法，凸显了美联储当前面临的政策困境，讨论了应对策略，强化了会 议声明和美联储主席鲍威尔新闻发布会的政策立场。 孙长忠（清华大学全球私募股权研究院研究员） 面对这一特殊困境，美联储的最佳应对策略只能是保持谨慎，等待观望。"与会者一致认为，鉴于经济 增长和劳动力市场依然稳健且当前货币政策的限制性适度，（FOMC）委员会完全有能力等待通胀和经 济前景更加明朗。在一系列政府政策调整的净经济效应更加明朗之前，采取谨慎态度是恰当的。"这是 对此前美联储及鲍威尔多次强调"不急于降息""等待成本较低""处于有利态势"等观点和态度的延续和强 化，说明尽管美国通胀和失业均有上升风险，但目前美联储更侧重于通胀方面，不降息本身就是控通胀 优先。 2022年至2023年加息期间，美联储是不惜付出衰退代价也要首先把通胀降下来的，那时及此后美联储也 多次强调价格稳定是实现长期可持续就业最大化的根本和前提。5月美联储会议 ...