Core Viewpoint - UBS reports that de-globalization is a significant trend driving stagflation, with tariffs and de-globalization leading to inefficiencies and potential reductions in actual economic growth rates, alongside increased inflationary pressures [1] Group 1: Economic Impact of Tariffs - UBS estimates that imposing a 60% tariff on 75% of Chinese goods exported to the U.S. and a 10% tariff on goods from other countries could result in a global GDP decline of 0.5% [1] - Inflationary pressures are expected to be volatile, primarily affecting the U.S. economy [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - The bond and stock markets are adjusting to the anticipated tariff increases, with U.S. 10-year real yields dropping by 30-50 basis points and 2-year inflation expectations rising by 70 basis points since January [5] - Tariff-sensitive stocks in the U.S. have underperformed the broader market by 17%, while in Europe, the underperformance is 9% [5] Group 3: Sector Analysis - Analysts in the U.S. are broadly downgrading revenue and earnings growth expectations for tariff-sensitive sectors such as durable goods, automotive, and retail [5] - In Europe, analysts maintain resilient expectations for sectors like automotive, luxury goods, and pharmaceuticals, which are also sensitive to tariffs [5] Group 4: Investment Strategies - UBS suggests that hard assets (gold and energy) are likely to outperform other asset classes due to rising credit and yield risk premiums, with a projected 3% decline in the S&P 500 index [8] - Investors are advised to consider selling put options on gold ETFs (GDX.US) and buying put options on financial sector ETFs (XLF.US) to "harden" risk exposure [8] Group 5: Future Economic Outlook - UBS believes that while the European market shows resilience, cyclical investors face risks, particularly as tariff-sensitive stocks may decline further by 10% due to lowered earnings expectations [9] - The impact of de-globalization is expected to lead to lower actual economic growth rates, increased inflation expectations, and heightened risk premiums associated with corporate profit growth [12]

| ○ 序号 | | 合约名称 | 涨幅% | 最新 现手 | 买价 | 卖价 | 买量 卖量 成交量 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | + 1 | | 氧化铝2505™ | -3.28% | 2946 | 6 2945 | 2946 | 50 41 195424 | | 4 | 2 | 焦煤2505 w | -2.88% | 994.0 | 993.5 6 | 994.0 | 12 4 273324 | | + | 3 | 焦炭2505 -2.63% | | 1575.5 | 1 1575.0 1576.0 | 2 | 6 18604 | | + | বাঁ | 中原2505 W | -2.32% | 2486 | 16 2485 | 2486 1939 | 21 686963 | | + | 5 | 玻璃2505 M | -2.31% | 1185 | 47 1185 | 1186 2157 | 133 1592938 | | + | 6 | 鸡蛋2505 W | -2.28% | 2960 | 6 2960 | 2961 | 64 ...

Group 1 - Trump has expressed the possibility of seeking a third presidential term, stating that it is too early to consider it seriously, and mentioned that "there are ways to do it" [1] - The 22nd Amendment of the U.S. Constitution limits presidents to two four-year terms, making it extremely difficult to overturn this amendment, requiring a two-thirds majority in both houses of Congress and approval from three-fourths of state legislatures [1] - Trump, at the age of 78, became the oldest president to assume office, surpassing Biden's record [1] Group 2 - Trump has run for president three times, first winning the election in 2016 and later losing in 2020, before announcing his candidacy again in 2022 [2] - Trump's political career began in 2015 when he announced his candidacy as a Republican, and he was officially nominated as the Republican candidate for the 2024 election in July 2024 [2] Group 3 - Concerns over a potential "Trump recession" have significantly impacted the U.S. stock market, with the market capitalization of the "Tech Seven" dropping by $2.7 trillion in three weeks [3] - Analysts warn that Trump's escalating tariff policies could lead to a recession or stagflation, drawing parallels to the policies of President Hoover during the Great Depression [3] - Goldman Sachs reported that the price-to-earnings ratio of the S&P 500 has increased by 25% over the past two years, indicating a potentially risky valuation for investors, with the current P/E ratio around 28 times [3] Group 4 - The cyclically adjusted P/E ratio of the S&P 500 is approximately 35 times, and historically, when this ratio exceeds 30, major U.S. stock indices have experienced declines ranging from 20% to 89% [4]

行情回顾： 国际黄金周五（3月28日）大幅收涨，开盘价3086.77美元/盎司，最高价3086.77美元/盎司，最低价3047.58美元/ 盎司，收盘价3083.71美元/盎司。 美国消费者信心指数终值与本月初的初步数据一致，连续第三个月下降，较2月份大幅下跌了12%。预期指数 更是急剧下降了18%，自2024年11月以来已累计下跌超过30%。本月的下降反映出，在所有不同人口统计特征 和政治倾向的群体中都达成了一个明确的共识：自2月份以来，共和党人同无党派人士和民主党人一样，对自 身的个人财务状况、商业环境、失业情况和通货膨胀的预期都在恶化。消费者们仍在担忧，在不断变化的经济 政策背景下，可能会面临经济困境。值得注意的是，三分之二的消费者预计未来一年失业率将会上升，这是自 2009年以来的最高值。鉴于近年来强劲的劳动力市场和收入一直是支撑消费者支出的主要力量，这一趋势揭示 了消费者群体的一个关键脆弱点。 荷兰国际集团分析称，美国2月份核心个人消费支出数据高于预期，这引发了人们对滞胀以及关税在未来可能 扮演的角色的新担忧。荷兰国际集团经济部门在一份报告中称："美国正朝着错误的方向发展，令人担忧的 是，关税会带来 ...

Group 1 - The US stock market experienced a significant decline, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping over 700 points, marking a 1.7% decrease, the largest single-day drop since March 10 [1] - The Nasdaq index fell by 2.7%, resulting in a loss of approximately $505 billion in market value for the "Big Seven" tech companies [1] - The S&P 500 index decreased by nearly 2%, with 10 out of its 11 sectors closing lower, indicating a typical risk-off trading day characterized by rising bond prices and widening spreads [1] Group 2 - Recent economic data has raised concerns about stagflation in the US, with inflation levels falling short of expectations and consumer confidence deteriorating [2] - The core PCE price index for February showed a month-over-month increase of 0.4% and a year-over-year increase of 2.8%, both exceeding expectations [2] - The consumer confidence index for March dropped to 57, the lowest level since 2022, with consumers anticipating a 4.1% inflation rate over the next 5-10 years, the highest since February 1993 [2]

来源|财联社 可以说，自2月中旬创下历史新高以来，标普500指数就一直承压。加上周五的跌幅，这一美国基准股指已经从2月19日的历史最高收盘点位下跌了 约9%。以科技股为代表的纳斯达克指数更是从去年12月16日的历史最高收盘点位下跌了约14%。 在一季度的倒数第二个交易日，美股市场遭遇了年内以来的第二大单日跌幅。由于有迹象表明消费者信心和支出正在下降，人们再度担心一系列关税 将引发通胀，风险资产在本周五集体受到了重创…… 行情数据显示，标普500指数周五收盘下跌了近2%，年内迄今只有3月10日那个"黑色星期一"的跌幅比昨夜更大。 而纳斯达克综合指数遭遇的抛售 则更为严重，隔夜跌幅达到了2.7%。根据Bespoke Investment Group的数据显示，纳指3月迄今已经有多达第五次下跌至少2%，这是自2022年6 月以来单月跌幅最大的一个月。 美股的持续走软，很大程度上要归因于美国总统特朗普关税政策所带来的巨大不确定性。近几周，随着有迹象表明定于4月2日实施的关税不会像威胁 的那样深入或广泛，市场的抛售曾一度有所缓解。 但昨日最新发布的几组数据却又表明，有鉴于特朗普总统的关税政策不断扩大，消费者越来越担心增 ...

Group 1 - Recent economic data indicates a resurgence of inflation in the U.S., coupled with concerns over the potential impact of the upcoming "reciprocal tariffs" policy from the Trump administration and signs of weak consumer spending [1] - The US Credit Fear Gauge has risen to its most alarming level since August of last year, reflecting a sharp decline in risk appetite within the financial markets [1] - The Markit CDX North America High Yield Index has continued its downward trend, falling 0.6 points to 105.14, indicating an increase in credit default risk and the worst performance in seven months [1] Group 2 - As risk appetite declines, risk assets such as stocks and cryptocurrencies have seen significant weakness, driven by heightened concerns over the impending "reciprocal tariffs" [2] - Major U.S. stock indices experienced substantial declines, with the Nasdaq Composite Index dropping nearly 3% in a single day, marking a "Black Friday" for the markets [2] - The "Magnificent 7" tech giants collectively fell 2.95% this week, with Nvidia experiencing a weekly decline of 6.82% [2] Group 3 - The core PCE, a key inflation measure favored by the Federal Reserve, showed a month-over-month increase of 0.4%, the largest rise in a year, with a year-over-year increase of 2.8%, both exceeding previous values and economist expectations [3] - Consumer confidence in the U.S. has dropped to a two-year low, exacerbating concerns over sustained pressure on consumer spending amid escalating trade tensions [6] - The expectation of "stagflation" has significantly increased, with the long-term inflation expectations reaching a 32-year high, driven by tariff impacts [6]

Group 1 - Market risk aversion has increased, leading to a significant drop in key U.S. Treasury yields, indicating investor concerns about economic growth rather than inflation [1] - As of the market close on March 28, the 2-year Treasury yield fell by 8 basis points to 3.89%, the 5-year yield dropped by 9 basis points to 3.98%, and the 10-year yield saw a substantial decline of 11 basis points to 4.27%, marking the largest single-day drop since January 15 [1] - The core personal consumption expenditures price index for February rose by 0.4%, resulting in a 12-month inflation rate of 2.8%, which is above the Federal Reserve's target of 2% [3] Group 2 - Consumer spending growth in February was 0.4%, below the expected 0.5%, while personal income increased by 0.8%, exceeding the forecast of 0.4% [3] - Concerns about tariffs and other factors are contributing to reduced consumer spending, leading to fears of stagflation, characterized by rising inflation and slowing economic growth [3][4] - The Federal Funds futures market indicates a 63.2% probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates three times or more by 2025, up from 51.1% the previous day [4] Group 3 - The bond market is reacting to concerns over tariffs, particularly those related to the automotive sector, which have intensified worries about stagflation [5] - In the European bond market, German bond yields fell, while Italian bond yields saw slight increases, indicating mixed reactions across different countries [5] - The U.S. Treasury has no bond issuance scheduled for the week, with a total of $144 billion in bonds to be issued on March 31, including $76 billion in 13-week and $68 billion in 26-week short-term bonds [6]

Core Viewpoint - Forever 21, a fast-fashion women's clothing brand, has filed for bankruptcy for the second time, highlighting the challenges faced by traditional retail in the face of e-commerce competition and changing consumer behavior [4][11][15]. Company Overview - Forever 21 was founded in 1984 by Korean-American couple Do Won Chang and Jin Sook Chang, initially opening a small store in San Francisco with a focus on affordable fashion for young women [7][9]. - At its peak, Forever 21 operated over 800 stores globally, including a prominent location on Nanjing East Road in Shanghai [4][9]. - The brand's revenue exceeded $4 billion by 2015, with ambitions to reach $8 billion by 2017 [10]. Decline Factors - The rise of e-commerce platforms like SHEIN and Temu, coupled with declining foot traffic in U.S. malls, contributed to Forever 21's struggles [5][11]. - The company's failure to adapt to the digital retail landscape and its aggressive physical expansion led to unsustainable costs and ultimately its first bankruptcy filing in 2019 [11][14]. - Despite a brief recovery after being acquired by a consortium in 2020, Forever 21 faced renewed challenges, leading to its second bankruptcy filing in 2023 [13][14]. Financial Situation - As of the latest filing, Forever 21's estimated liabilities range from $1 billion to $10 billion, while its assets are estimated between $100 million and $500 million [15]. - The brand's decline reflects broader trends in the retail sector, where many companies are struggling under the pressures of inflation and changing consumer spending habits [15][18]. Industry Context - The U.S. bankruptcy rate has reached its highest level since the global financial crisis, with significant impacts on sectors like retail, healthcare, and automotive [18]. - The economic environment, characterized by high inflation and rising interest rates, has led to increased financial strain on many businesses, including those in the fast-fashion sector [19][20].

利息成本猛增 美联储连亏两年 暴力加息后果 美联储的资产负债表包括国债和抵押贷款支持证券等资产，美联储像其他投资者一样从中赚取收 益。负债方面则包括银行在美联储的存款，即所谓的"准备金"，美联储需为这些准备金支付利息。 美联储近日发布的2024年财务报表审计结果显示，美联储2024年运营亏损高达776亿美元（约合人 民币5600亿元），连续第二年出现大额亏损，此前2023年亏损额高达1145亿美元。 分析称，美联储遭遇巨额亏损的主要原因是其在2020年和2021年疫情期间大力支持经济，以及在 2022年和2023年为应对高通胀而大幅加息，将基准利率从接近零上升到5.25%—5.5%的区间。 自2022年起，美联储持续暴力加息，不断提高对金融机构支付的准备金利息，因此美联储出现巨额 运营亏损。到2024年，美联储已经连亏两年，亏损合计近2000亿美元。随着短期利率的下降，市场认为 美联储正逼近恢复盈利的临界点。但面对滞胀威胁加剧、通胀再次抬头，美联储今年的降息路径仍不明 朗。 利率下调或能恢复盈利 据了解，美联储是自筹资金机构，通过其持有的证券以及为金融机构提供服务来盈利。根据规定， 美联储运营盈余要上缴美国财 ...