Core Insights - In May, U.S. consumer spending unexpectedly declined by 0.1%, contrasting with economists' expectations of a 0.1% increase, primarily due to the fading effects of preemptive purchases made to avoid tariffs [1][4] - The overall economic situation is distorted by extensive tariff policies, leading to significant data discrepancies, with the first quarter seeing a record trade deficit and a 0.5% annualized decline in GDP [4][8] - The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose by 0.1% in May, maintaining a moderate inflation rate, while the core PCE inflation rate increased from 2.6% to 2.7% [5][7] Consumer Spending and Income - Consumer spending growth was nearly stagnant, with a mere 0.5% increase, marking the slowest growth rate since Q2 2020, despite some preemptive purchasing [4][5] - Personal income decreased by $10.96 billion in May, a 0.4% decline, largely due to reduced government transfer payments, although wages showed resilience with a 0.4% increase [5][7] - The personal savings rate fell to 4.5%, indicating a potential strain on consumer financial health [5][7] Inflation and Economic Outlook - The core PCE index's increase suggests persistent inflationary pressures, which may influence the Federal Reserve's decisions regarding interest rates [5][8] - The combination of weak consumer spending and ongoing inflation is unlikely to prompt the Federal Reserve to consider interest rate cuts in the near term [4][5] - The economic uncertainty stemming from tariff policies continues to impact growth prospects, necessitating close monitoring of consumer spending and inflation trends [8]

Core Insights - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index in May rose by 0.2%, slightly exceeding expectations, indicating persistent price pressures [1][5] - Consumer spending in the U.S. experienced its largest decline since the beginning of the year, reflecting growing uncertainty in the economic outlook due to government policies [1][8] Inflation Indicators - The year-on-year core PCE price index for May was 2.68%, above the expected 2.6% and the previous value of 2.5% [3] - The overall PCE price index for May showed a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, matching expectations but up from 2.1% previously [4] - SuperCore PCE, which excludes food and energy, increased slightly to 3.12% year-on-year from 3.07% [5] Consumer Spending and Income - Personal consumption expenditures fell by 0.3% in May, with a notable 6% drop in automobile purchases, reversing previous gains [11] - Personal income also declined, marking the largest drop since 2021, primarily due to reduced government transfer payments [12] - The savings rate decreased significantly to 4.5% of disposable income [14] Economic Outlook - Many economists anticipate a rise in inflation in the coming months as higher import tariffs are passed on to consumers [9] - Federal Reserve officials have indicated potential support for interest rate cuts if inflation remains moderate, with discussions around a possible cut as early as the next policy meeting [16] Market Reaction - The U.S. dollar index experienced a short-term decline, dropping 0.16% to 97.12 [18]

Group 1 - The S&P 500 index reached a new high for the first time since February, rebounding 23% from the lows caused by tariffs in April [1] - The market has shown a rapid recovery, with the potential to return to record closing levels in the shortest time after experiencing at least a 15% decline over 89 trading days [1] - Factors such as easing tensions in the Middle East and trade negotiations between the U.S. and major partners have boosted investor sentiment [1] Group 2 - Analysts indicate that the market perceives tariffs as less burdensome than previously anticipated, contributing to a sense of recovery [1] - There are signs of resilient earnings, with economic activity remaining active and inflation not significantly rising [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a concerning trend in the U.S. economy, indicating that personal income and spending have declined, suggesting a potential technical recession [1] Economic Indicators - Personal income was expected to grow by approximately 0.3%, but instead, it has shown negative growth [1] - Personal spending figures are also disappointing, reflecting a negative growth trend [1] Economic Outlook - The decline in personal income and spending raises the likelihood of an economic slowdown in the second quarter, potentially leading to negative economic activity [1] - Aside from the core PCE data being slightly above expectations, there were no other surprises in inflation, indicating a broader economic weakness [1] - Overall signs point to a weakening economy, with the possibility that it has already entered a technical recession [1]

美国5月PCE价格指数环比上涨了0.1%，使得年通胀率达到了2.3%。据道琼斯调查的经济学家预测，相应的通胀率水平分别为 0.1%和2.3%。美联储青睐的通胀指标——扣除食品和能源后的核心PCE价格指数环比上涨了0.2%，同比上涨7.7%——略高于预 期，但仍与通胀温和的情况相符。 虽然2025年迄今为止，通胀一直较为温和，不过许多经济学家预计，随着企业越来越多地将更高的进口关税转嫁给消费者，通 胀将在接下来的几个月里加剧。 扣除通胀因素后，个人消费支出下降了0.3%。5月份美国消费者支出出现自年初以来的最大降幅，这表明围绕特朗普政府经济 政策的不确定性加剧，正在对经济增长前景造成越来越大的负面影响。消费支出的下降是普遍性的，且与今年消费者信心的下 滑相吻合，这一现象是由于特朗普总统不稳定的贸易政策所致。 5 月份服务类支出持平，为三个月来最低水平。在交通服务、外出就餐、住宿、金融服务以及其他服务(包括净境外旅行)方面 的支出均有所下降。 与此同时，5月份个人收入出现了自2021年以来的最大降幅，原因是政府转移支付减少。工资水平连续第二个月上涨0.4%，延 续了近期的稳健增长态势。这表明消费者有足够的资金继续 ...

Core Insights - The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index in the U.S. increased by 0.1% month-over-month in May, indicating a slight rise in inflation [1] - The core PCE price index, which excludes food and energy prices, rose by 0.2% month-over-month, suggesting underlying inflation pressures [1] - The PCE price index is a key inflation measure closely monitored by the Federal Reserve for monetary policy decisions, highlighting its significance in the economic landscape [1]

美国5月消费者支出意外下降 通胀温和上升 金十数据6月27日讯，美国消费者支出5月意外下降，因为在关税之前提前购买带来的提振作用减弱，通 胀增幅依然温和。周五数据显示，占经济活动三分之二以上的消费者支出上个月下降了0.1%，市场预 期增长0.1%。提前购物的热潮消失后，消费者支出上季度几近停滞。服务支出同步减少，导致消费支 出季率仅增0.5%，创2020年二季度以来最低。该数据预示二季度消费增长路径疲软。消费疲软叠加通 胀温和的局面，仍不足以促使美联储7月重启降息。经济学家指出，当前通胀温和源于企业仍在销售关 税生效前囤积的库存，预计通胀将从6月CPI数据开始抬头。 ...

Core Insights - Consumer spending in the U.S. saw its largest decline since the beginning of the year in May, indicating increasing uncertainty regarding the economic policies of the Trump administration and its impact on growth prospects [1] - Inflation remains moderate for now, but many economists predict an increase in the coming months as businesses pass on higher import tariffs to households [1] Economic Impact - The decline in consumer spending suggests potential challenges for economic growth, as consumer expenditure is a key driver of the economy [1] - The anticipated rise in inflation could further complicate the economic landscape, affecting purchasing power and consumer behavior [1]

2025.06.27 周五 文/南篱 各位好，我是南篱，一个财经人。 最好不持仓过周，押注对了还好，但一旦押注失误，别想着一根细细的"止损线"能帮你。冷知识，跳空出现之后，不论是设置的止损或是止盈， 都大概率不会被触发。 故而今天还是看一下黄金的本身，有没有自救的能力吧。说白了，你至少让我进场啊！ 六月的倒数第二个交易日，PCE数据将公布；六月的最后一个交易日在下周一，收月线也就算了，更何况还有周四的非农，是会留给下周一些风 风雨雨的。【没错，鉴于老美假期，所以数据提前公布】 刚说完黑天鹅，它就飞来了，我是什么召唤师的角色吗？ 基本面上一天不如一天，改口的反转来的太多，不怎么想去追踪了，就记得两件事。①老美需要＄，不管是债务亦或者经济发展；②建国以降息 为引子，弱化关税影响，试图模糊掉这些。 别问，前者跟现在开辟的任何战场都有关。周末各位也要提防一下，市场休市，可ZZ没有休息一说，一个人八百个心眼子，还在斗的激烈。 催催催，再怎么被催促，美联储都得考虑一下，如果连续的通胀不强或者就业市场疲软，才能点击降息的按钮。这次可能是个开始，那PCE数据 不能一开始就扇降息一巴掌吧。 所以这次呢，本来预期就比较高，如果公 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券分析】 关税豁免期临近到期，关注贸易格局演变 ——6 月海外月度观察 油价：6 月，国际原油先受中美元首通话提振油需前景，后受中东局势引发 供给担忧双重因素带动下强势上涨至 75.60 美元/桶，随后中东局势缓和，油 价回落至 64.92 美元/桶。 美国就业市场超预期疲软；金融市场流动性紧缩。 债券研究 经济方面，全球制造业景气度收缩，服务业保持高景气度。贸易方面，波罗 的海干散货指数先升后降，5 月前 20 日韩国出口同比跌幅收缩至-2.5%。货 币政策方面，关税政策加剧经济前景的不确定性，主要央行保持谨慎态度。 财政政策方面，德国政府内阁批准 2025 年财政预算草案和 2026 年财政预 算框架。 ❖ 发达经济体：关税冲击经济前景，通胀继续降温 美国经济景气度回落，制造业和服务业景气度均处于收缩区间；劳动力市场 温和走弱，时薪增速超预期；通胀继续降温，关税影响暂未体现；零售销售 继续走弱，消费者支出放缓；房贷利率居高不下以及持续上涨的房价加剧居 民购房负担。英国、日本制造业和服务业景气度分化，欧元区增长乏力。通 胀方面，欧元区、英国通胀降温，日本通胀水平继续处于政策目标上 ...