现货黄金： 12月2日，消息面：现货黄金周一亚市早盘一度触及4205.39美元/盎司，创下日内低点。但受美联储降 息预期升温推动，金价随后持续反弹。纽约时段早盘，金价一度飙升至4264.61美元/盎司，为10月21日 以来最高水平。不过，受美股、加密货币等资产波动影响，黄金价格也出现剧烈波动，金价自上述日内 高点大幅回落。周二（12月2日），现货黄金跌幅约0.36%，交投于4215美元/盎司附近，金价上日触及 六周高位（4264.43美元）后在周二亚洲早盘小跌，金价一度跌至4200关口附近，因投资者获利了结， 同时等待关键经济数据，以寻找降息线索。但金价很快受到逢低买盘支撑，近期的地缘政治进展，加上 对美国货币政策转向宽松的预期升温，黄金预计仍将展现出韧性。 技术面：昨日黄金市场呈现出较为明显的波动行情。白天时段，黄金价格强势冲高，最高触及4264.6一 线，展现出强劲的上涨动能。然而，进入午夜时分，市场风云突变，金价开始震荡回落。4小时图显 示，现货黄金已确认成功突破明确的对称三角形形态，这一突破信号预示着看涨延续格局。尽管突破后 动能有所改善，但由于相对强弱指数（RSI）维持在65附近的超买区间，短期跟进 ...

Macro News - The US ISM Manufacturing PMI fell to 48.2 in November, marking nine consecutive months of contraction, with new orders declining at the fastest pace since July and factory employment continuing to shrink [1] - The Bank of Japan's Governor hinted at a possible interest rate hike in December, suggesting a normalization of rates to around 0.75% if wage and inflation momentum continues, indicating a shift from ultra-loose monetary policy rather than a tightening [1] Institutional Perspectives - The strong signal from the Bank of Japan's Governor regarding a December rate hike may lead to adjustments in asset prices globally, potentially impacting precious metal prices in the short term [1] - Weak economic and employment data from the US, combined with some Federal Reserve officials supporting a rate cut in December, has increased expectations for a rate cut by the Fed [1] - Fiscal easing policies have been introduced by Germany, the US, Japan, and the UK, contributing to expectations of rising global debt and fiscal deficits [1] - Central banks around the world continue to purchase gold, with the one-month borrowing rate for London silver exceeding 5%, while geopolitical risks in regions like Ukraine, the Middle East, and Venezuela may support precious metal prices in the medium to long term [1]

- The report discusses the SHFE Gold Risk Trend Model, which is constructed using risk and trend dimensions. The risk dimension is measured by the TR indicator, while the trend dimension is assessed using the JAX (slow line) and TMP (fast line) indicators. The model generates signals for local tops and bottoms based on these indicators[14][15] - The SHFE Gold Risk Trend Model shows that as of November 28, 2025, the risk level is 71.67, indicating a moderately high-risk zone. The trend dimension shows a new bullish signal as the fast line crosses above the slow line, suggesting a short-term upward momentum[14][15] - The SHFE Gold Risk Trend Model's backtesting results indicate that the risk level is 71.67 as of November 28, 2025[14][15]

Core Viewpoints - The precious metals market is supported by weak economic data and geopolitical risks, with gold and silver showing strong upward trends [1][2][3][4][5] Group 1: Market Analysis - Citic Futures indicates that gold has a high safety margin for long positions, while silver shows greater elasticity under squeezed trading conditions [1] - Guoxin Futures highlights that the recent ISM manufacturing PMI data from the U.S. has raised concerns about economic slowdown and monetary policy easing, while geopolitical uncertainties have increased risk aversion [2] - Guoyuan Futures notes a divergence in U.S. economic momentum, with manufacturing facing pressures from weak new orders and record inventory backlogs, while the Fed's dovish signals support a long-term bullish outlook for precious metals [3] Group 2: Price Trends and Predictions - Zaye Capital Markets reports that gold prices have stabilized around $4,238 per ounce, driven by macroeconomic factors and geopolitical developments, with expectations of continued upward momentum [4] - Axis Securities emphasizes that factors such as central bank gold purchases, escalating global risks, and hints of U.S. rate cuts could sustain gold's upward trend into 2026, with potential for record highs if current trends continue [5]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing a significant surge, with international gold prices surpassing $4,150 per ounce and domestic gold prices exceeding 950 yuan per gram, marking a cumulative increase of 54% in 2025, reflecting a historical record driven by global central bank gold purchases [1][3]. Central Bank Actions - The People's Bank of China has been actively accumulating gold, impacting the supply-demand balance in the market, akin to a wealthy homeowner hoarding a commodity [3]. - Central banks are now replacing part of their foreign exchange reserves with gold, indicating a shift in reserve management strategies [5]. Economic Indicators - Upcoming economic data releases, including U.S. non-farm employment and consumer spending, are expected to influence gold prices significantly, as the market is at a crossroads regarding its direction [3][13]. - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cuts and the expectation of further reductions are contributing to a decline in the dollar index, which in turn supports higher gold prices [7]. Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, have led to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, with significant price spikes observed during periods of risk escalation [9]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Global gold demand reached 1,249 tons in Q2 2025, a 3% year-on-year increase, with central banks being a crucial pillar of this demand [11]. - The supply of gold is stagnating due to rising mining costs and diminishing easy-to-extract resources, reinforcing the price support for gold [11]. Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to adopt differentiated strategies in response to high gold prices, such as prioritizing gold bars and coins over jewelry to minimize costs [15]. - The increase in holdings of gold ETFs by institutional investors indicates a trend that retail investors may consider following [15]. Market Outlook - The ongoing central bank gold purchases are seen as a critical support for gold prices, providing a "safety cushion" against potential market corrections [15]. - The evolving role of gold in household assets is being redefined, as it is increasingly recognized for its value in risk management and as a cultural symbol [15].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, oil prices fluctuated. The explosion at the CPC core berth over the weekend led to an interruption in exports on the 28th and 29th, which is expected to impact short - term crude oil exports from Kazakhstan and Russia, and the crude oil calendar spread is expected to rebound. However, the specific impact assessment still depends on whether the attacks continue. - The market expects OPEC to maintain the decision to suspend production increases in the first quarter. Global on - land inventories have increased, while the total on - land and water inventories have slightly decreased. U.S. EIA commercial crude oil inventories have increased, as have gasoline and diesel inventories, while diesel inventories in Singapore and ARA have significantly decreased. - Recently, the refinery operations in Europe and the United States have been boosted, and the Russia - Ukraine peace talks have entered specific details. In the short term, the European diesel crack spread has declined significantly due to market sentiment, but the fundamentals still provide support. It is expected that there is still room for the gasoline - diesel price spread to repair downward. - In the fourth quarter, the Brent price range is $55 - 65 per barrel. The short - term valuation deviation is not high, and a high - selling strategy is maintained. Recently, attention should be paid to whether the CPC oil export interruption continues, and the short - term Brent calendar spread is likely to strengthen [6][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price Data - **Crude Oil and Related Products**: From November 25 to December 1, 2025, WTI increased by $0.77, BRENT increased by $0.79, and DUBAI decreased by $0.67. Other related spreads and differentials also showed corresponding changes [3]. - **Domestic Products**: From November 25 to December 1, 2025, OMAN increased by $0.52, domestic gasoline decreased by 30 yuan/ton, and domestic diesel decreased by 44 yuan/ton [3]. - **Other Products**: There were also changes in the prices and spreads of Japanese naphtha, Singapore fuel oil, and other products during this period [3]. 3.2 News - **Demand for Russian Oil**: The CEO of VTB Bank stated that the global demand for Russian oil is strong, and customers including India will find ways to purchase Russian oil [3]. - **Shipping Incidents**: A third oil tanker related to Russia exploded at sea. The "Mersin" tanker's engine room was flooded, but the hull was stable, the crew was safe, and no pollution accident occurred [3]. - **OPEC+ Production Decision**: Energy research company Rystad Energy analyzed that OPEC+'s decision to maintain stable oil production is likely to be affected by geopolitical uncertainties involving Russia and Venezuela. The organization is closely monitoring the peace talks to end the Ukraine conflict and the escalating tensions between the United States and Venezuela, both of which may pose risks to global oil supply [4]. - **Pipeline Loading**: The Caspian Pipeline Consortium announced that a docking point has resumed crude oil loading [4]. 3.3 Inventory Data - **U.S. Inventories**: - API data for the week ending November 21 showed a decrease of 1.859 million barrels in crude oil inventories, an increase of 0.539 million barrels in gasoline inventories, and an increase of 0.753 million barrels in refined oil inventories compared to the previous period. - EIA data for the week ending November 21 showed a decrease of 560,000 barrels per day in U.S. crude oil exports, a decrease of 20,000 barrels in domestic crude oil production, an increase of 2.774 million barrels in commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves (a 0.65% increase), a 0.05% decrease in the four - week average supply of U.S. crude oil products compared to the same period last year, an increase of 498,000 barrels in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory (a 0.12% increase), and an increase of 486,000 barrels per day in commercial crude oil imports excluding strategic reserves compared to the previous week [5][6]. - **Domestic Gasoline and Diesel Inventories**: From November 14 - 20, both gasoline and diesel inventories decreased. Gasoline inventories were 10.2331 million tons, a 1.75% decrease, and diesel inventories were 12.2708 million tons, a 4.25% decrease. The comprehensive refining profit of major refineries rebounded month - on - month, while the comprehensive profit of local refineries fluctuated [6]. - **Fujairah Inventories**: As of the week ending November 24, the total refined oil inventory in Fujairah, UAE increased by 197,000 barrels. Light distillate inventories decreased by 934,000 barrels to 6.291 million barrels, medium distillate inventories increased by 205,000 barrels to 3.393 million barrels, and heavy residual fuel oil inventories increased by 926,000 barrels to 11.165 million barrels [6].

今年早些时候，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普称台积电是"世界上最重要的企业之一"。虽然他的说法并不准确，台积电的确是世 界上最重要的企业，但他的政府和其他国家确实意识到将台积电引入本国的重要性。 公众号记得加星标⭐️，第一时间看推送不会错过。 五年过去了，这些项目都已产出晶圆。但代价是什么？台积电（以及台湾）和这些海外晶圆厂是否都实现了目标？海外晶 圆厂在经济上是否具有竞争力？台积电的传奇创始人张忠谋博士一直对美国晶圆厂持悲观态度（重点为笔者所加）： 我们认为，美国最近为增加半导体本土制造所做的努力，目前仅仅投入数百亿美元的补贴，远远不够。我认为这将是一项 代价高昂却徒劳无功的尝试。（原文：We think that the recent effort of the U.S. to increase onshore manufacturing of semiconductors, right now you're talking about spending only tens of billions of dollars of money of subsidy. Well, it's not going to be ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. Core Views of the Report - The overall situation of the oil market is one of oversupply and short - term geopolitical instability. Oil prices are expected to be weak with fluctuations [1]. - Silver has upward momentum due to weak US economic data and potential Fed rate cuts, but may face short - term correction pressure and is bullish in the medium term [1]. - Steel prices are expected to be strong with fluctuations in the short term, but the upside is limited due to weak demand in the off - season [3]. - Manganese silicon prices are likely to remain low, with cost support but limited demand and difficulty in cost transmission [3]. - Coke market is in a situation of weak supply and demand in the off - season. The first round of price cuts is expected to be implemented, but multiple consecutive cuts are less likely [4]. - The pig market has an oversupply situation. It is recommended to take short - term profit - taking and wait and see, and farmers can choose the right time for hedging [5]. - Palm oil market trends are unclear in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see [5]. - Rapeseed meal prices will maintain a volatile pattern in the short term, and changes in China - Canada trade policies should be focused on in the future [6]. - PX prices are expected to be strong with fluctuations in the medium term, and the supply is expected to contract [6]. - Natural rubber market will operate with fluctuations, affected by factors such as inventory accumulation and weak downstream demand [7]. - Short - term treasury bond market has entered a volatile range, and the stock - bond seesaw and capital market trends should be monitored [8]. - Methanol 01 contract is expected to be strong with fluctuations in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or take short - term long positions [8]. - Soda ash 01 contract is expected to operate with fluctuations in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or take short - term short positions on rebounds [9]. - Gold is expected to be strong with fluctuations in the short term and may fluctuate at high levels in the medium term, and the differentiation between gold and silver should be noted [9]. - Ethylene glycol 01 contract is expected to operate with fluctuations in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or take short - term long positions [10]. Summaries According to Different Product Categories Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Attacks on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium and US threats to close Venezuelan airspace, along with OPEC+ keeping production unchanged in Q1 2026, led to a more than 1% increase in overnight oil prices. Supply is in excess, and short - term geopolitical instability exists. Pay attention to US - Russia negotiations [1]. - **PX**: Domestic and Asian PX device loads have declined. Although some factories use MX to supplement PX production, the supply remains at a relatively high level. There are potential maintenance and load - reduction plans for PX devices at home and abroad, and the supply is expected to contract [6]. - **Methanol**: Domestic methanol production is at a high level, downstream demand has increased slightly, port inventory has decreased, and overall downstream demand is stable. The 01 contract is expected to be strong with fluctuations in the short term [8]. - **Soda Ash**: The price of heavy - quality soda ash is relatively stable. Production has decreased, and inventory has declined. The float glass market has slightly decreased in production, and the soda ash market is expected to operate with fluctuations [9]. Metals - **Silver**: Weak US economic data may strengthen the expectation of Fed rate cuts. Silver has upward momentum but may face short - term correction pressure [1]. - **Thread Steel**: The steel market has no obvious supply - demand contradiction, inventory is decreasing, and manufacturers are willing to support prices. Steel prices are expected to be strong with fluctuations in the short term, but the upside is limited [3]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The start - up rate of manganese silicon enterprises has decreased. The cost of imported manganese ore has increased, but manufacturers' profits are poor. The market supply - demand is loose, and prices are likely to remain low [3]. - **Coke**: Coke production and inventory of steel mills have increased. Supply has increased, while demand has weakened in the off - season. The first round of price cuts has started, but multiple consecutive cuts are less likely [4]. Agricultural Products - **Pig**: The price of pork has declined. The supply is in excess, and the pickling season has limited impact. It is recommended to take short - term profit - taking and wait and see [5]. - **Palm Oil**: The production of palm oil in Malaysia has decreased slightly. Market expectations of Indonesia reducing export taxes may affect prices, and the short - term trend is unclear [5]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The inventory of rapeseed meal has decreased slightly. The arrival of Australian rapeseed and customs clearance efficiency affect supply expectations, and prices will maintain a volatile pattern [6]. Others - **Short - term Treasury Bonds**: Short - term funds show differentiation. The bond market is affected by economic fundamentals and year - end policies, and has entered a volatile range [8]. - **Natural Rubber**: The raw material price is strong, but downstream demand is weak. The inventory in bonded areas has increased, and the market is expected to operate with fluctuations [7]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The overall supply of ethylene glycol has decreased slightly, port inventory has increased, downstream polyester demand is stable, and terminal demand is weak. The 01 contract is expected to operate with fluctuations [10]. - **Gold**: Potential changes in the Fed's top leadership may affect the precious metal market. Gold is expected to be strong with fluctuations in the short term and may fluctuate at high levels in the medium term [9].

行业 贵金属日评 日期 2025 年 12 月 2 日 宏观金融团队 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 021-60635739 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、贵金属行情及展望 日内行情： 消息显示特朗普将对委内瑞拉发动空中和地面行动，地缘政治风险推动隔夜 伦敦黄金反弹至 4200 美元/盎司上方，中国印度年底首饰消费旺季预期也提供上 涨动能；由于美联储降息改善美国甚至全球经济增长前景，而且中国广期所铂钯 品种上市带动整体交易氛围，近期工业属性较强的银铂钯走势强于黄金，伦敦金 银比值一度跌破 74。中短期内多空因素交织，我们判断伦敦黄金需要在 3880-4380 美元/盎司的波动区间内运行更长时间以积累再次突破动能，目前阶段不宜过 ...

来源：视频滚动新闻 能源研究公司Rystad Energy分析指出，欧佩克+维持石油产量稳定的决定很可能受到涉及俄罗斯和委内 瑞拉两个关键成员国的地缘政治不确定性影响。该组织正密切关注旨在结束乌克兰冲突的谈判以及美国 与委内瑞拉之间不断升级的紧张局势，这两方面都可能对全球石油供应构成风险。该公司分析师表 示："欧佩克+认识到市场情绪脆弱，任何失误（哪怕是象征性的）都可能引发剧烈的价格反应。保持 选择灵活性而非承诺新的产量路径，可使欧佩克+在形势恶化或地缘政治事件意外导致供应紧张时迅速 做出反应。" ...