行业报告 | 行业专题研究 石油石化 证券研究报告 伊以冲突，对能源化工品影响几何？ 伊朗石油&炼厂 我们估算 360 万桶产量=150 万桶原油出口（主要到中国）+80 万桶成品油 出口+130 本土消费。炼厂加工量约 210 万桶/天，新闻中起火的有油库和炼 厂，其中德黑兰炼厂能力 22.5 万桶/天。 首先，针对油田目标袭击，不如针对油库炼厂来的方便，类似俄乌也是对成 品油出口影响大于原油。其次，如果伊朗原油出口受影响，中国地炼油源或 将受损失。 天然气、LPG 和化工品 2022 年伊朗发电 85%靠天然气，天然气主要是南帕斯生产。伊朗的 LPG 基 本来自南帕斯，且 LPG 出口主要到中国，中国进口 LPG 有 27%来自伊朗。 中国进口伊朗甲醇、乙二醇分别占总进口量的 59%和 4%。 对以色列来说，袭击南帕斯气田效率非常高，对伊朗电力系统和民众的影响 力大。那么首先 LPG 潜在影响最大；其次气头的甲醇和乙二醇也有一定潜 在影响；第三对伊拉克电力系统也有潜在影响。 霍尔木兹海峡 2023 年霍尔木兹海峡的石油通过量 2090 万桶/天，占全球石油液体消费量 20%左右。沙特和阿联酋拥有少量绕过霍 ...

Group 1: Market Reactions to Ceasefire Announcement - The announcement of a "comprehensive and complete ceasefire" between Israel and Iran led to a significant reaction in global financial markets, with the dollar being sold off and oil prices dropping sharply [1] - As of June 24, the WTI oil price was reported at $66.31 per barrel, reflecting a decline from previous highs [1] - Goldman Sachs maintains a year-end prediction for Brent oil prices to remain below $60 due to supply exceeding demand [1][4] Group 2: Oil Price Forecasts - Following the de-escalation of geopolitical risks, major institutions expect oil prices to return to a downward trend, with Goldman Sachs predicting Brent crude oil prices to fall to around $60 per barrel by the end of the year [4][5] - The baseline scenario suggests that global oil supply growth is robust, outpacing demand growth by a factor of four, with contributions from OPEC and non-OPEC countries [5] Group 3: Dollar Dynamics - Despite previous concerns about the dollar losing its status as a safe-haven currency, it initially appreciated during the military conflict but faced a sell-off after the ceasefire announcement, returning to the 97 range [7][8] - Analysts suggest that the dollar's strength may not be sustainable, with potential for a 10% decline due to uncertainties surrounding U.S. policies [9][10] Group 4: Renminbi and Chinese Market Reactions - The renminbi and Chinese stock market rebounded significantly on June 24, with the dollar to renminbi exchange rate falling below 7.18 [11] - Goldman Sachs has adjusted its forecasts for the dollar to renminbi exchange rate, predicting it to be 7.1, 7, and 6.9 over the next 3, 6, and 12 months respectively, indicating a stronger outlook for the renminbi [11] - Morgan Stanley highlights that with external disturbances easing, the A-share market is expected to continue along the lines of Chinese manufacturing, focusing on sectors such as technology, high-end machinery, and new consumption [12]

机构依然预期美元将走软，部分投行已将未来12个月的美元/人民币预测调整至7以下。 据新华社，美国东部时间6月23日傍晚，美国总统特朗普在社交媒体"真实社交"上宣布，以色列和伊朗已就"全面彻底停火"达成一致，这场为期12天的冲突 即将结束。 这一出人意料的消息引爆全球金融市场，此前因避险需求而大涨的美元被抛售，油价大跌。截至北京时间24日16:30左右，美元指数报98.13，美元/人民币报 7.1778，美元/离岸人民币报7.1760，WTI油价报66.31美元/桶。 高盛表示，由于供给大于需求，仍维持年末对布伦特油价60美元以下的预测。同时，接受记者采访的外资行交易员和分析师普遍认为，如果中东冲突出现真 正的缓和甚至终结迹象，特朗普可能会将注意力重新转向他眼中的"敌人"——美联储主席鲍威尔，打压美元的结构性因素仍然存在。从中期来看，机构依然 预期美元将走软，部分投行已将未来12个月的美元/人民币预测调整至7以下。 WTI原油期货 ↓ 66.37 -2.14 (-3.12%) d=d=0+0+0+0+0+0 a 4 * 0 = 0 # + = T 4+4 + 80= 2 + III __ | 18 "25 早前 ...

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 6 月 24 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 伊以冲突可能走向停火，油价应声暴跌，其中 WTI 8 月合约收盘 | | | | 下跌 5.33 美元至 68.51 美元/桶，跌幅 7.22%。布伦特 8 月合约收 | | | | 盘下跌 5.53 美元至 71.48 美元/桶，跌幅 7.18%。SC2508 以 537.7 | | | | 元/桶收盘，下跌 32.2 元/桶，跌幅为 5.65%。伊朗最高国家安全委 | | | | 员会秘书处 23 日发表声明说，为回应美国对伊朗核设施的侵略行 | | | | 径，伊朗当天对美国驻卡塔尔的乌代德空军基地进行了导弹打击。 | | | | 特朗普在美国东部时间当天 18 时 02 分，北京时间 24 日 6 时 02 | | | | 分，发表的帖文中说，停火将在大约 6 小时后正式生效，届时以 | | | 原油 | 伊双方将完成各自正在进行的"最后任务"。根据协议，停火将分 | 震荡 | | | 阶段实施：伊朗先开始停火，到第 12 个小时 ...

Group 1: Investment Outlook for Non-Ferrous Metals - The allocation ratio of funds to the non-ferrous metals sector increased by 1.07 percentage points to 4.59% in Q1 2025, with copper, gold, and aluminum being the key focus for increased allocation [1] - The non-ferrous metals industry index rose by 8.11% from the beginning of 2025 to May 30, 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 10.52 percentage points, ranking third among 31 industry indices [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the non-ferrous metals sector is projected to be 141.46 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 0.01%, while Q1 2025 net profit is expected to reach 45.27 billion yuan, a 70.2% increase year-on-year [1] Group 2: Factors Driving Gold Price Increase - Multiple factors are contributing to the rise in gold prices, including the onset of a rate-cutting cycle by the Federal Reserve, which is expected to enhance liquidity and benefit gold [2] - Gold's investment value is highlighted by rising inflation expectations in the U.S., alongside ongoing tariff uncertainties that increase demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [2] - Geopolitical risks and major central banks continuing to increase their gold reserves are anticipated to further push gold prices upward [2] Group 3: Rare Earth Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply and demand dynamics for rare earths are marginally improving, driven by policies promoting new energy vehicles and home appliances, which are expected to increase demand for rare earth permanent magnet materials [3] - The domestic control over rare earth mining growth is slowing, and while imports from Myanmar have temporarily recovered, future import stability remains uncertain due to seasonal factors [3] - Export controls on heavy rare earths implemented in April 2025 are expected to drive up overseas rare earth prices, which will likely lead to domestic price increases [3] Group 4: Copper and Aluminum Market Fundamentals - The aluminum sector is supported by ongoing domestic policies, with high demand expected from the power grid, photovoltaics, and new energy vehicles, while supply growth is anticipated to slow down [4] - Short-term uncertainties remain due to tariff disruptions and economic fluctuations, but the long-term outlook for aluminum prices is upward due to supply constraints [4] - The copper market faces short-term supply disruptions and long-term constraints due to declining ore grades and insufficient capital expenditure, which are expected to support copper prices [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall rating for commodities and stock index futures is neutral, waiting for fundamental verification, and gold is recommended for low - level allocation [7] Core Viewpoints - The eurozone's economic data is weak, and attention should be paid to the subsequent development of the Middle East situation [2] - China's May economic data was mixed, with weak investment and export, and only consumption showing resilience. Fiscal policy may be further strengthened [3] - The Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged, and the US retail sales declined in May. The eurozone's composite PMI dropped [4] - The conflict between Israel and Iran has intensified, which may lead to significant changes in the prices of crude oil, commodities, global stock indices, and precious metals [5] - Commodities are affected by short - term geopolitical conflicts. For industrial products, beware of the emotional impact from the US stock market adjustment, while agricultural products may have price increases. Oil prices are sensitive to Middle East geopolitical events, and gold can be considered for low - level allocation [6] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - China's May investment data was weak, especially in the real estate sector, which may drag down fiscal revenue and the real estate chain. Exports were also under pressure, while consumption showed resilience. The government may increase fiscal support. The US and China held a trade negotiation meeting, and the US tariff policy may be flexible. South Korea and Japan's leaders will not attend the NATO summit [3] - The Fed maintained the federal funds rate. The US retail sales declined in May, and the eurozone's composite PMI dropped. The ECB has limited room for interest rate cuts [4] - The conflict between Israel and Iran has intensified since June 13, with both sides suffering heavy casualties. Russia supports Iran, and the US has attacked Iranian nuclear facilities. Iran may close the Hormuz Strait. If the conflict spreads, it will impact global markets [5] Commodity Analysis - From the 2018 tariff review, industrial products may be affected by the US stock market adjustment, while agricultural products may see price increases. Oil supply is expected to be abundant in the medium - term, and gold can be considered for low - level allocation [6] Strategy - The overall strategy for commodities and stock index futures is neutral, waiting for fundamental verification, and gold is recommended for low - level allocation [7] To - do News - Multiple events related to the Iran - Israel conflict on June 23, including military strikes, statements from various countries, and discussions in international organizations. China, Russia, and Pakistan proposed a UN Security Council resolution draft [8]

液化石油气日报 | 2025-06-24 地缘扰动持续，需求改善乏力 市场分析 1、\t6月23日地区价格：山东市场，4800—4850；东北市场，4130—4310；华北市场，4570—4800；华东市场， 4530—4650；沿江市场，4780—4880；西北市场，4300—4400；华南市场，4700—4748。数据来源：卓创资讯 2、\t2025年7月下半月中国华东冷冻货到岸价格丙烷645美元/吨，涨2美元/吨，丁烷568美元/吨，涨2美元/吨，折合 人民币价格丙烷5092元/吨，涨17元/吨，丁烷4484元/吨，涨17元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 3、\t2025年7月下半月中国华南冷冻货到岸价格丙烷648美元/吨，涨2美元/吨，丁烷568美元/吨，涨2美元/吨，折合 人民币价格丙烷5116元/吨，涨17元/吨，丁烷4484元/吨，涨17元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 现货方面，多数区域价格稳中上涨，上游走货顺畅，下游积极入市。供应方面，海外供应维持充裕，但随伊以冲 突发酵，伊朗供应面临下行风险；国内炼厂检修结束，国内供应逐步回升，但短期到港压力有所缓和。需求方面， 燃烧需求疲软，PDH装置开工率 ...

当地时间6月23日，美联储理事鲍曼表示可能支持最早7月降息。在美联储理事鲍曼谈及降息前景之后，标普500指数涨0.57%刷新日高，道指涨0.42%，纳 指涨0.55%。 国际油价大幅走低，美油主力合约、布伦特原油主力合约均跌超8%。国际贵金属期货收盘涨跌不一，COMEX黄金期货跌0.04%，COMEX白银期货涨 0.09%。 霍尔木兹海峡有多重要 一旦伊朗决定关闭霍尔木兹海峡，还可能引发地区局势进一步升级。 美国国务卿鲁比奥威胁说， 如果伊朗关闭霍尔木兹海峡，将是一个"可怕的错误""无异于经济自杀"。 美国媒体援引资深国际石油市场分析师安迪·利波的话报道，如果霍尔木兹海峡被完全封锁，原油价格可能涨至每桶120美元至130美元。 德意志银行分析 师吉姆·里德表示，市场下一步走势"实际上取决于伊朗是否会将石油武器化"。 油价大跌 国际油价本周首个交易日波动剧烈，全球基准布伦特原油本周开盘时上涨近6%，创新高。 随后大幅走低。Wind数据显示，截至当地时间6月23日收盘， 美油主力合约收跌8.95%，报67.23美元/桶；布伦特原油主力合约跌8.37%，报69.16美元/ 桶。 | NYMEX WTI原油 | IC ...

专题报告 2025-06-24 刘洁文 液化气：霍尔木兹海峡的炮火，正在改写 LPG 贸易版图 报告要点： 徐绍祖（联系人） 能化分析师 xushaozu@wkqh.cn 近期以色列和伊朗的冲突使中东地区的地缘更加不稳定，美国轰炸伊朗多处核设施也将本次冲 突再次升级，伊朗考虑封锁霍尔木兹海峡。历史上伊朗曾多次宣布封锁霍尔木兹海峡，但由于 海峡宽度较大，且部分水域属于阿曼，物理上难以完全封锁。此外伊朗自身大量民生物资依赖 该航道，并且封锁该海峡影响全球能源化工用户或将与世界为敌。因此借鉴两伊战争时期使用 水雷短暂封锁成功的先例，完全封锁霍尔木兹海峡的概率不高，但也门胡赛武装在西侧呼应伊 朗打击欧美船只为全球能源贸易造成干扰已成事实。但是如果伊朗领导人哈梅内伊的领导权受 到绝对挑战时，最差的结果或将发生即封锁霍尔木兹海峡，届时全球能源贸易版图或将被炮火 改写。 霍尔木兹海峡作为伊朗 LPG 出口全球（尤其亚洲）的核心命脉，其通畅程度直接决定供应能力。 完全封锁将引发亚洲市场供应危机与价格海啸，而持续性船只骚扰则通过三重压力（运费/保 险成本激增、航程效率折损、供应风险预期）长期推高 LPG 价格。中国作为全球最大 ...

(原油) 隔夜国际油价大幅下行，布伦特08合约跌8.63%，预计SC原油期货开盘后补跌。周一伊朗对美国驻 卡塔尔空军基地进行导弹袭击以作为美国袭击其三处核设施的回应,而并未出现霍尔木兹海峡封锁 的极端情景，特朗普称伊朗与以色列已达成停火协议，尽管暂未最终确认，本轮伊以冲突在未构成 石油供应犹动的前提下仍出现明确缓和信号。本轮油价上涨的宏观及供需面支撑偏弱,溢价点集中 在中东地缘风险，地缘局势的缓和将带动原油重回空头趋势，此前相对偏强的内外盘价差、柴油裂 解价差同样面临修复。 【责金属】 隔夜伊以冲突进展发生逆转,特朗普宣布以色列和伊朗已完全达成一致,将实现全面停火,原油和 黄金均回落。如顺利实现停火，市场关注点将逐渐转向关税谈判和美联储。今日关注鲍威尔就半年 度货币政策报告作证词陈述。 【铜】 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2025年06月24日 隔夜美伦铜价格震荡走高,伦铜继续去库,LME0-3月升水接近280美元。美国6月标普制造业PMI 初 值处于扩张状态,欧元区继续萎缩停滞。伦铜暂时仍稳固在MA20日均线。国内现铜升水缩窄，SMM 社库减少1.63万吨至12.96 ...