Core Viewpoint - The recent ruling by the U.S. International Trade Court blocking Trump's tariff policy has led to a surge in market optimism, with the emergence of a new trading strategy known as "TACO trading," which capitalizes on the expectation that Trump will backtrack on his aggressive trade policies [1][6][7]. Market Reactions - Major Asian stock indices and U.S. futures rose significantly following the court's decision, reversing previous declines [3][4]. - The Nikkei 225 index increased by 1.5% to 38,263.36 points, while U.S. futures for the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq rose by 1.2%, 1.6%, and 1.7% respectively [3][5]. - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.508%, indicating a shift in market focus from monetary policy to fiscal concerns [5]. TACO Trading Strategy - The "TACO trading" strategy, which stands for "Trump Always Chickens Out," has gained traction among traders who anticipate that Trump will retract his harsh tariff announcements after initial market declines [6][7]. - This strategy was recently validated when Trump postponed the implementation of a 50% tariff on EU goods, leading to a rebound in U.S. stock markets [7][8]. - Analysts suggest that investors have begun to understand Trump's negotiation tactics, likening his approach to a poker game where he may bluff but ultimately retreats under pressure [7]. Economic Implications - The ruling and subsequent market reactions have implications for countries heavily reliant on exports to the U.S., such as Japan and South Korea, which also saw their stock indices rise [4][6]. - The Bank of Korea's decision to cut interest rates from 2.75% to 2.5% reflects efforts to alleviate economic pressures amid these trade uncertainties [4].

Group 1 - The recent ruling by the U.S. International Trade Court has blocked the "reciprocal tariffs" imposed by the Trump administration, indicating a significant check on the government's tariff policies [1][3]. - The initial round of tariffs against China, initiated in 2018, has established a legal framework that is unlikely to change in the short term, with a focus on the newly introduced tariffs this year [3][5]. - The "Fentanyl Tariff," which imposes a 20% tariff on Chinese goods, remains unaffected by the court's ruling, while the 10% "reciprocal tariff" is currently frozen but not entirely canceled [5][8]. Group 2 - The Trump administration has initiated an appeal against the court's decision, which may eventually reach the Supreme Court, where a conservative majority could potentially overturn the lower court's ruling [5][6]. - Even if the "reciprocal tariff" is deemed illegal, the Trump administration may find alternative justifications to impose tariffs, as demonstrated by the strategic use of the "Fentanyl Tariff" [8]. - The ongoing trade tensions necessitate a robust response strategy, including utilizing WTO dispute resolution mechanisms and enhancing domestic supply-side reforms to stabilize the economy [10].

每经记者｜张韵 每经编辑｜杨夏 5月28日，中远海控（SH601919，股价16.27元，市值2544亿元）召开2024年年度股东大会，107位股东代表现场参会、踊跃提问，交流涉及市场展望、关税 影响、联盟竞争、长约签订、市值管理等内容。 《每日经济新闻》记者就美线货量变化情况进行提问，中远海控副总经理钱明表示，5月12日，中美贸易谈判取得阶段性成果，贸易商纷纷抢抓90天时间窗 口集中出货，目前货量恢复至所谓的"对等关税"实施前水平，高于平常货量的10%至20%。公司判断，该货量仍为原先滞留在仓库的存量货，后续货量的生 产周期约为1至2周，预计6月货量充足。 那么，美线的货量增长是否会导致未来出现港口拥堵？钱明向《每日经济新闻》记者表示，本轮的抢运潮与新冠疫情时期的港口拥堵程度有所不同，当时叠 加了美国港口劳工缺失等因素。但从目前收集到的信息来看，各家船公司都有增加到美国西海岸的运营计划，这些航线的船舶若同时抵达美国港口，还是会 美线签约价格同比有所提升 "今年全年尽管市场整体呈现供需平衡，但我们判断需求方面最大的黑天鹅事件就是美国的关税政策，从4月开始，新的贸易环境已对集装箱运输量与货物流 向造成了比较大的 ...

见闻君 几天前说的事 兑现了，美法院叫停特朗普关税。 据央视新闻，当地时间5月28日， 美国国际贸易 法院阻止了美国总统特朗普4月2日宣布的关税政策生效，并裁定特朗普越权 ，对向美国出口多于进口的国家 征收全面关税。 三位分别由里根、奥巴马和特朗普本人任命的法官一致裁定，总统滥用紧急权力，踩踏了宪法红线。若接下来特朗普上诉失败，他发动的贸易战将在10天内戛 然而止。 随后，白宫迅速强硬回应，称将动用"行政权力的每一杠杆"反击这一"未经选举的法官"的裁决。 "对等关税"涉嫌多重非法 美国国际贸易法院在裁决中宣布，特朗普总统上任后不久对多个国家实施的高额关税是非法的。这项裁决涉及两个合并案件——V.O.S. Selections v. United States 和 Oregon v. Department of Homeland Security。 就这一裁决，法院给出了四个重要结论： IEEPA下总统权力有限 宪法要求 "关税、税收在美国各地必须统一" ，因此法院在全国范围内永久禁止了这些关税的实施。 接下来会发生什么？ 上诉争夺战已打响 法院认为1977年《国际紧急经济权力法》(IEEPA)不能赋予总统"无 ...

特朗普4月启动的"对等关税"被美国国际贸易法院认定为超越总统权限（Reuters） 这是对第二任特朗普政府关税政策的首个司法判决。法院命令停止执行的关税包括"对等关税"， 以及以打击非法药物为名，对加拿大、墨西哥、中国等国加征的额外关税。 这些关税均基于《国际紧急经济权力法》（IEEPA），由特朗普总统以宣布国家紧急状态为前 提，通过总统权限启动。 根据判决书，法院裁定总统无权在全球范围内征收关税，指出"IEEPA并未赋予这一权限"。法院 表示特朗普依据IEEPA启动关税政策"超出了总统被赋予的权限"。法院认定这一系列关税无效， 命令政府"永久停止"相关措施。 版权声明：日本经济新闻社版权所有，未经授权不得转载或部分复制，违者必究。 法院认为示特朗普关税政策"超出了总统被赋予的权限"。美国白宫发言人5月28日表示：决定如何 应对紧急事态并不是由未经选举产生的法官来做的。政府将运用一切行政权力来应对这一危机， 重振美国的伟大…… 日经中文网 https://cn.nikkei.com 针对美国中小企业等以特朗普关税违反宪法为由提起的诉讼，美国国际贸易法院5月28日裁定， 对特朗普关税发出停止执行的命令。法院认定 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the suspension of the tariff policy announced by the Trump administration on April 2, which aimed to impose a minimum benchmark tariff of 10% on trade partners [1] - The U.S. International Trade Court ruled that the power to regulate trade with other countries is exclusively held by Congress, and the President's emergency powers do not override this authority [1] - The lawsuit challenging the tariff policy was initiated by a non-profit organization representing five small U.S. businesses affected by the tariffs, marking a significant legal challenge to Trump's tariff policy [1]

Market Overview - US stock index futures showed significant gains, with Nasdaq futures up 1.72%, S&P 500 futures up 1.44%, and Dow futures up 1.05% [1][2] - WTI crude oil prices increased by 0.73%, reaching a high of $62.29 per barrel [2][3] - Spot gold prices decreased by 0.79%, currently at $3262.48 per ounce [2][3] - The US dollar index rose by 0.44%, currently at 100.334 [2][3] Economic Policy and Legal Developments - A US federal court blocked President Trump's tariff policy announced on April 2, ruling that he overstepped his authority by imposing tariffs on countries with trade surpluses with the US [5] - The court emphasized that only Congress has the power to regulate trade, and Trump's emergency powers do not override this authority [5] - The lawsuit was initiated by a non-profit organization representing five small US businesses affected by the tariffs, marking a significant legal challenge to Trump's trade policies [5] Federal Reserve Meeting Insights - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.5% during the FOMC meeting held on May 6-7 [6][7] - Committee members expressed the need to carefully assess future data and evolving economic conditions before making further adjustments to the interest rate [6][7] - There is an acknowledgment of increased uncertainty regarding economic prospects, with rising risks of unemployment and inflation [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges faced by American small business owners in the context of the U.S. government's "reciprocal tariff" policy aimed at bringing manufacturing back to the U.S. It highlights the reluctance of consumers to pay higher prices for "American-made" products, despite public support for domestic manufacturing [1][3]. Group 1: Challenges of "American Manufacturing" - A small business owner conducted an online test revealing that all nearly 600 showerheads sold were produced in Asia, with zero sales for the "American-made" option priced at $239 compared to $129 for the Asian-made version [1][2]. - The high cost of "American-made" products, which can exceed $100 more than their Asian counterparts, is attributed to the lack of specialized manufacturing facilities in the U.S. and the need for collaboration with multiple manufacturers to produce a single product [2][5]. - The complexity and cost of logistics in the U.S. further hinder the competitiveness of "American manufacturing," as multiple factories are required to complete different production stages, leading to increased expenses and time delays [5][6]. Group 2: Economic Implications - The "reciprocal tariff" policy may lead to job losses among small business owners who rely on global supply chains, as raising prices to maintain profitability could result in zero sales [7][9]. - The article emphasizes that the U.S. lacks the necessary resources, infrastructure, and skilled labor to support a fully domestic manufacturing model, making it impractical to produce all consumer goods within the country [5][6]. - The uncertainty surrounding future tariffs and trade policies has led companies to pause new product development and reduce marketing efforts, reflecting a cautious approach to risk management in an unpredictable environment [8][9].

Core Viewpoint - The current global market is experiencing a significant structural misalignment, indicating investors' indifference towards tariff policy threats, as evidenced by the stable performance of inflation swaps and strong asset performance in countries most affected by tariffs [1][6]. Group 1: Market Reactions to Tariff Threats - Despite ongoing tariff threats, the U.S. inflation swap prices have remained largely unchanged since April 2, with the 1-year inflation swap slightly adjusting from 3.40% to 3.36% and the 5-year swap increasing from 2.54% to 2.56% [4][3]. - The phenomenon known as "TACO trading" reflects market behavior where declines follow tariff threats, but subsequent reversals occur when the government retracts its stance, highlighting a pattern of market resilience [2][6]. Group 2: Performance of Affected Assets - Surprisingly, assets in developed economies most vulnerable to tariff impacts have shown strong performance, with the S&P/TSX Composite Index in Canada reaching a historical high and increasing by 5.4% year-to-date [8][10]. - The Canadian bond index has also risen by 0.3% year-to-date, and the Canadian dollar has appreciated over 4% against the U.S. dollar, indicating a stronger-than-expected performance despite economic growth forecasts being downgraded [10]. - Germany's DAX index reached a historical high, only down 0.4% from that level, outperforming other major indices like Stoxx 600 and CAC40, which is notable given Germany's reliance on trade [11][10].

Group 1 - Trump's statement about not planning to produce sneakers and T-shirts has provided temporary relief to Vietnamese and Chinese garment manufacturers, particularly benefiting Vietnam's large textile industry [1][3] - Despite the temporary relief, industry players remain skeptical and are not planning to change their strategies, focusing instead on expanding markets outside the U.S. due to the uncertainty surrounding Trump's trade policies [1][4] - In 2022, nearly 17% of China's textile and apparel exports went to the U.S., while Vietnam's share was significantly higher at 38% [1] Group 2 - The American Apparel and Footwear Association has expressed that tariffs negatively impact the industry, as 97% of apparel and footwear products rely on imports, and higher tariffs would increase costs for manufacturers and consumers [3] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary has indicated that the textile industry is becoming obsolete, which has drawn criticism from industry representatives who highlight the sector's contributions to the military and employment [3][4] - Vietnamese textile exporters are experiencing significant upheaval, with many companies actively diversifying and reducing reliance on the U.S. market in response to the unpredictable trade policies [3][5] Group 3 - Foreign direct investment in Vietnam has surged by 40% compared to the same period in 2024, with over $1.5 billion of new capital coming from China, indicating a shift in investment patterns [7] - Vietnamese officials are eager to negotiate with Trump to lower tariffs before the end of the 90-day tariff suspension period, but a trade agreement remains elusive [8] - The U.S. government's pressure on Vietnam to sever supply chains with China poses significant challenges for countries reliant on Chinese production, with analysts suggesting that reconfiguring supply chains could take decades [8]