法国央行：预计2026年的经济增长将为1.0%（此前预估为1.2%），2027年则为1.2%（此前预估为 1.3%）。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Economic growth shows that steel has shifted to inventory accumulation, with seasonal recovery in power plant daily consumption and mixed trends in various industries' production and demand [2][3]. - Inflation indicates that the agricultural product price index is stronger than the same period last year, with weak pig prices in CPI and a continuous rebound in oil prices in PPI [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Economic Growth: Steel Shifts to Inventory Accumulation 3.1.1 Production: Seasonal Recovery in Power Plant Daily Consumption - Power plant daily consumption has a seasonal recovery. On June 10, the average daily consumption of 6 major power - generating groups was 736,000 tons, up 1.4% from June 3; on June 6, the daily consumption of power plants in eight southern provinces was 1.718 million tons, up 1.6% from May 29 [5][12]. - The blast furnace operating rate has a mild decline. On June 6, the national blast furnace operating rate was 83.5%, down 0.3 percentage points from May 30; the capacity utilization rate was 90.6%, down 0.1 percentage points from May 30. However, the blast furnace operating rate of Tangshan steel mills was 95.2% on June 6, up 1.7 percentage points from May 30 [5][18]. - The tire operating rate has a second decline. On June 5, the operating rate of truck all - steel tires was 63.5%, down 1.3 percentage points from May 29; the operating rate of car semi - steel tires was 73.9%, down 4.4 percentage points from May 29. The loom operating rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has declined for two consecutive weeks [5][21]. 3.1.2 Demand: Steel Shifts to Inventory Accumulation - The property market sales show a continuous improvement trend month - on - month. From June 1 - 10, the average daily sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was 208,000 square meters, up 13.0% from the same period in May, but down compared with the same periods in previous years [5][25]. - The auto market retail is stable and strong. In June, retail sales increased by 19% year - on - year, and wholesale sales increased by 10% year - on - year [5][29]. - Steel prices have a limited rebound. On June 10, the prices of rebar, wire rod, hot - rolled coil, and cold - rolled coil increased by 0.6%, 0.8%, 0.6%, and 0.1% respectively compared with June 3. Steel has shifted to inventory accumulation, with the inventory of five major steel products reaching 935,900 tons on June 6, up 3,400 tons from May 30 [5][35]. - Cement prices have a partial rebound. On June 10, the national cement price index increased by 0.6% compared with June 3, with prices in East China and the Yangtze River region rising by 2.1% and 2.3% respectively [5][36]. - Glass prices have a slight rebound. On June 10, the active glass futures contract price was 996.0 yuan/ton, up 3.3% from June 3 [5][41]. - The container shipping freight rate index has a continuous upward trend. On June 6, the CCFI index increased by 3.3% compared with May 30, and the SCFI index increased by 8.1% [5][44]. 3.2 Inflation: Agricultural Product Price Index Stronger than the Same Period Last Year 3.2.1 CPI: Weak Pig Prices - Pig prices are running weakly. On June 10, the average wholesale price of pork was 20.3 yuan/kg, down 1.4% from June 3. The month - on - month price has turned down [5][52]. - The agricultural product price index is stronger than the same period last year. On June 10, the agricultural product wholesale price index decreased by 0.6% compared with June 3. Different agricultural products have different price trends [5][57]. 3.2.2 PPI: Continuous Rebound in Oil Prices - Oil prices have a continuous rebound. On June 10, the spot prices of Brent and WTI crude oil were 69.9 and 65.0 dollars/barrel respectively, up 2.6% and 2.5% respectively from the previous week [5][60]. - Copper and aluminum prices have increased. On June 10, the LME 3 - month copper and aluminum prices increased by 1.9% and 1.2% respectively compared with June 3. The decline in the domestic commodity index month - on - month has narrowed [5][64]. - Industrial product prices have generally weakened. Since June, most industrial product prices have shown a year - on - year decline, with the decline in coking coal and coke prices being more prominent [66].

金十数据6月11日讯，Annex Wealth Management首席经济学家Brian Jacobsen表示，本次CPI数据远较预 期温和。部分进口食品价格涨幅明显，如香蕉价格上涨3.3%，玩具价格上涨2.2%，但鸡蛋价格却出现 2.7%价格下跌。贸易政策若能稍趋稳定，将极大有助于避免通胀失控。这也再次证明，为何美联储可 能将风险关注重点从通胀威胁转向经济增长威胁。 经济学家：CPI较预期温和上涨 进口食品价格涨幅明显 ...

英国财政大臣Reeves：我们希望英国各地都能实现（经济）增长。 ...

欧洲央行管委马赫鲁夫：经济增长面临下行风险，通胀风险则呈现出混合态势；未来走势将高度取决于 关税政策的最终安排，尤其是对报复措施的反应。 ...

Economic Growth - Morocco's economy is projected to grow by 3.8% in 2024, slightly higher than the 3.7% growth in 2023, driven mainly by domestic demand while facing inflation and increased financing needs [1] - The GDP growth at current prices is expected to be 7.9% in 2024, down from 11% in 2023, indicating a reduction in inflationary pressures [1] Sector Performance - The primary sector is underperforming, with an overall value added decline of 4.5%, agricultural output shrinking by 4.8%, and fisheries growth slowing from 6.9% in 2023 to 2.6% in 2024 [1] - The secondary sector shows strong growth, with value added increasing by 4.2% in 2024 compared to only 0.8% in 2023, driven by mining (+13%), construction (+5%), manufacturing (+3.3%), and utilities (+2.6%) [1] - The tertiary sector remains active but experiences a slight slowdown, with growth rates decreasing from 5% in 2023 to 4.6% in 2024, although sectors like transportation and storage (+7.4%) and financial services (+7.3%) are accelerating [1] Income and Savings - National disposable income is expected to grow by 7.7% in 2024, down from 10.2% in 2023, while the national savings rate rises to 28.9% of GDP, compared to 28% in 2023 [2] - The investment rate is projected to be 30.1% of GDP in 2024, up from 29% in 2023, leading to an increase in the financing gap from 1% of GDP to 1.2% [2]

Group 1: Government Investment Plans - The UK government plans to increase investment in various sectors to stimulate private investment and economic growth amid current hesitance and slow growth [1][3] - A total of £15.6 billion will be allocated over the next five years to improve urban transport infrastructure, marking the largest infrastructure investment in UK history [1][4] - An investment of £86 billion will be made to accelerate growth in strategic industries such as technology, life sciences, advanced manufacturing, and defense [2][4] Group 2: Education and Defense Investments - The UK government will invest £18.7 million in AI training for students, with £2.4 million designated for flagship projects to ensure every secondary school student can acquire new AI skills within three years [2] - Defense spending is set to increase from 2.3% to 2.5% of GDP by 2027, resulting in an annual increase of approximately £6 billion [2] Group 3: Economic Context and Political Response - The investment plan is a response to the current hesitance in private investment due to increased national insurance tax rates and minimum wage standards, which have dampened entrepreneurial enthusiasm [3][4] - The plan also addresses the dissatisfaction reflected in recent local elections, where the Reform Party gained traction against traditional parties, indicating public discontent with the current government's economic performance [4] Group 4: Regional Economic Balance - The investment strategy aims to reduce regional economic disparities, with specific funding directed to areas outside London, such as Greater Manchester and West Midlands, to promote balanced regional growth [5][6] - The focus on regional development is crucial as economic analysis suggests that living cost pressures will further exacerbate regional economic divides, with London remaining a key economic hub [4][5]

Group 1 - The market sentiment was initially "risk on" due to a call between the highest leaders of China and the US, leading to a price rebound, but concerns over economic growth resurfaced after the non-farm payroll data, causing prices to retreat [1][3]. - Gold prices experienced fluctuations while silver saw a significant increase, with COMEX gold rising by 0.54% and silver by 9.24% last week [2][20]. - The COMEX copper price showed a rebound from Monday to Thursday, peaking on Thursday before a pullback on Friday, influenced by concerns over increased tariffs on steel and aluminum [3][5]. Group 2 - The geopolitical tensions from the Russia-Ukraine conflict supported precious metal prices, while the call between the US and China leaders eased macroeconomic sentiment, boosting market risk appetite [4][20]. - Following the release of non-farm payroll data that exceeded market expectations but had a significant downward revision of previous values, concerns about the US economy led to a rise in US Treasury yields, putting pressure on gold prices [4][20]. - The COMEX copper price curve shifted upward, indicating a contango structure, with copper inventories nearing 200,000 tons, suggesting potential for further accumulation in US copper stocks [5][6]. Group 3 - The copper concentrate TC weekly index was stable, with trade prices for clean copper concentrate remaining in a narrow range, indicating limited market activity [7]. - Domestic refined copper social inventory increased, reflecting a rise in imports and limited downstream consumption, with expectations of a decrease in inventory in the coming week [13][10]. - The processing fees for 8mm refined copper rods mostly declined, with a notable drop in East China, while the market for recycled copper rods showed signs of recovery [16]. Group 4 - The gold and silver markets showed divergence, with silver's gains outpacing gold's, leading to a significant drop in the gold-silver ratio [22]. - COMEX gold inventory decreased by approximately 670,000 ounces, while silver inventory fell by about 1,290,000 ounces, indicating a tightening supply in the precious metals market [36][41]. - The SPDR gold ETF holdings increased by 4 tons to 934 tons, while SLV silver ETF holdings rose by 406 tons to 14,709 tons, reflecting increased investor interest in precious metals [41].

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank's Governing Council member Kazimir believes that economic growth faces significant downside risks, but ignoring the upside risks of inflation would be a mistake [1] Economic Growth - Economic growth is currently perceived to be under considerable threat, indicating a cautious outlook for the near future [1] Inflation Risks - There is a warning against neglecting the potential for rising inflation, suggesting that inflationary pressures could pose a significant challenge [1]

以下文章来源于IN咖 ，作者聪明投资者 IN咖 . 多视角关注优秀投资人和企业家 " 我原本以为我们正迎来四年的高速增长和美国经济的强劲活力，但如今错失了太多机会。 " 美东时间 6 月 5 日举行 2025 年福布斯 " 异见者峰会 " 上， Citadel 创始人兼 CEO 肯 · 格里芬（ Ken Griffin ）参与了重磅对话，话题直指当下最棘手的三件事：关税风暴、美国债务危机以及 " 大而美法案 " 。 肯 · 格里芬创办的城堡投资（ Citadel ）目前管理的资产超过 660 亿美元。据 LCH Investments 统计， 城堡投资是史上盈利最高的对冲基金，截至 2024 年底，累计 回报约 830 亿美元，遥遥领先第二名 D.E. Shaw 的 672 亿美元，第三名的千禧年（ Millennium）则为 655亿美元。 同时，他旗下的做市巨头城堡证券更是承担了全美约四分之一的股票交易量。 去年 12 月，格里芬还曾对这届政府寄予厚望，期盼它能带来减税、去监管、鼓励增长的新气象，并高调宣 扬"美国已经开始对商业开放 " 。 如今再听他发言，语气早已转向：从关税政策到立法支出，他几乎句句都 ...