上海黄金交易所（简称：上金所）9日发布通知，提示投资者做好风险防范工作，合理控制仓位。值得注意 的是，当天黄金现货和期货都出现了1%的跌幅。 美国市场交易所的白银ETF基金出现显著资金流入，上周四持仓量单日增加220万盎司。国内唯一商品型白银 主题LOF— 国投白银LOF（161226） 6月至今已经上涨超10%，年内涨幅近19%。 但是根据美国商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）的最新持仓报告来看，在经过5月份调整之后，黄金和白银净多头 寸，都出现了大幅增加。而随着中美代表团本周在伦敦开展新一轮谈判，投资者都在屏息等待答案，加大了对 市场不确定的押注。 上金所年内第六次提示风险 6月9日，上海黄金交易所发布《关于做好近期市场风险控制工作的通知》称，近期影响市场不稳定的因素较 多，贵金属价格波动剧烈。请各会员提高风险防范意识，继续做好风险应急预案，维护市场平稳运行。同时， 提示投资者做好风险防范工作，合理控制仓位，理性投资。 今年以来，上海黄金交易所已经连续6次明确发布风险提示或加强风险防控的通知。其中，4月最为密集，1个 月内发布3次提示（4月3日、10日、21日），反映当月市场波动剧烈程度，当月盘中国际现货黄金 ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2025年06月09日16时39分 一、黄金 报告导读： 今日贵金属金弱银强，沪金主力收跌1.02%，沪银主力收涨1.77%。①核心逻辑，短期特朗普贸易战反复，经济衰退地缘异动风险 仍存；美国经济滞涨风险增加，美联储对降息维持谨慎态度。②避险属性方面，中美元首通话，中美贸易会谈将于周一在伦敦举行 。③货币属性方面，美国劳工部统计局发布数据显示，5月非农就业人口增加13.9万（前值下修至14.7万），高于市场预期的13万 人，在贸易政策不确定性影响下就业增长持续放缓，失业率连续第三个月维持在4.2%，这或许将为美联储推迟降息提供政策空间 。目前市场预期美联储下次降息至9月，预期25年总降息空间跌至50基点左右。美元指数和美债收益率震荡偏弱；④商品属性方 面，CRB商品指数反弹承压，人民币升值利空国内价格。⑤预计贵金属短期金弱银强，中期高位震荡，长期阶梯上行。 投资咨询系列报告 | 策略：稳健者观望，激进者高抛低吸。建议做好仓位管理，严格止损止盈。 | | --- | | 表1 黄金相关数据： | | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | 较上日 | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The Fed's rate - cut expectations are postponed, but due to the uncertainty of Trump's tariff policy, continuous gold purchases by central banks globally, and geopolitical risks, precious metal prices are likely to rise and difficult to fall. It is recommended that investors mainly lay out long positions on pullbacks [1]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Gold and Silver Market Data - **Shanghai Gold**: The closing price was 779.56 yuan/g, with a change of - 1.43 yuan compared to the previous day and 11.54 yuan compared to the previous week. The trading volume was 52,784.00, and the open interest decreased by 1,544.00 [1]. - **Shanghai Silver**: The closing price was 8,839.00 yuan/10g, with a change of - 1.62 yuan compared to the previous day. The trading volume was 437,220.00, and the open interest decreased by 1,324.00 [1]. - **COMEX Gold Futures**: The closing price was 3,331.00 dollars/ounce, with a change of - 45.10 dollars compared to the previous day. The trading volume was 183,467.00, and the open interest increased by 2,726.00 [1]. - **COMEX Silver Futures**: The closing price was 36.13 dollars/ounce, with a change of 0.34 dollars compared to the previous day. The trading volume was 32,099.00, and the open interest increased by 1,381.00 [1]. Important Information - **Gold**: The People's Bank of China increased its gold holdings for the 7th consecutive month, with a month - on - month increase of 60,000 ounces, and the pace of increase continued to slow down. The Fed's G.98 report showed that consumer credit growth in April soared from the revised 3.6 billion dollars to 17.9 billion dollars [1]. - **Silver**: Trump's uncertain tariff policy raised concerns about consumer inflation rebound. The non - farm payrolls in the US in May were 139,000, higher than expected but lower than the previous value, and the average hourly wage rate was 3.9%, higher than expected and the previous value, delaying the Fed's rate - cut expectation to September/December [1]. Central Bank Policies - **European Central Bank**: Cut interest rates by 25 basis points in June, lowering the deposit mechanism rate to 2%. The market expects the ECB to cut interest rates about once more before the end of 2025 [1]. - **Bank of England**: Cut the key interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.25% in May. The market expects the BoE to cut interest rates only once more before the end of 2025 [1]. - **Bank of Japan**: Raised interest rates by 25 basis points in January, raising the benchmark rate to 0.5%. The market expects the BoJ to raise interest rates around July [1]. Trading Strategy - For London gold, focus on the support level around 3,000 - 3,200 dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 3,500 - 3,700 dollars/ounce. For Shanghai gold, focus on the support level around 730 - 750 yuan/g and the resistance level around 840 - 900 yuan/g. For London silver, focus on the support level around 28 - 30 dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 35 - 36 dollars/ounce. For Shanghai silver, focus on the support level around 7,800 - 8,000 yuan/10g and the resistance level around 8,600 - 8,900 yuan/10g [1].

此外，周三公布的数据显示美国服务业活动收缩，就业增长放缓。国债收益率随之下跌，掉期交易员开 始押注美联储将在10月和12月两次降息。较低的利率环境通常对不产生利息的贵金属构成利好，而白银 由于其更高的价格弹性，往往在这种环境下表现更为突出。 分析认为，这轮白银暴涨或许只是开始——当避险需求遇上工业短缺，再叠加货币宽松预期，这样的组 合往往会产生超出预期的价格冲击。 特朗普政府于6月初加码进口钢铁和铝的关税后，市场开始担忧美国政府可能继续对其他关键金属加 税，从而驱动白银和铂金价格上涨。此外，近期美国公布的多项宏观数据表现不佳，市场对美联储降息 预期迅速发酵，也对白银和铂金等工业属性更强的贵金属产生了利好驱动。 随着关税政策的调整，全球贸易格局面临重塑，金属市场的供应链稳定性受到冲击。投资者为了规避可 能的风险，将资金转移至相对稳定且具有避险属性的贵金属市场，白银作为其中的重要一员，自然成了 资金流入的方向。这种基于宏观政策变动引发的市场行为，直接推动了白银价格在短期内的急剧上升。 国信期货表示，全球贸易摩擦与地缘冲突加剧、美国稳定币法案冲击美元信用、美联储政策分歧较大等 因素导致贵金属获得多重溢价，短期贵金属 ...

此外，白银主题基金年内净值增长率也表现不错。据Wind资讯数据统计显示，目前仅有的两只白银主题基金年内净值增长 率均已超15%，其中6月份以来净值增长率高达7.7%。据悉，白银主题基金投资标的以追踪白银期货主力合约走势为主，属于 被动型产品，基金日常持有的白银期货合约价值基本维持在100%左右，保证金以外的资金主要用于流动性管理，保持对相关 合约的紧密跟踪。 本月以来，国际白银价格持续走高，伦敦现货银、纽约商业交易所（COMEX）白银期货主力7月合约等同步走强；其中， COMEX白银7月合约创出自2012年2月份以来新高。在此影响下，国内沪银期价也走出一轮强势行情，主力7月合约更是创出历 史新高，截至目前报收于8808元/千克，较月初的8520元/千克大涨近300元/千克。 文华财经最新数据显示，目前沪银总沉淀资金已逼近390亿元，较月初的330亿元增长约60亿元，成为商品期货资金量排名 第三的品种，仅次于沪金的930亿元、沪铜的403亿元。值得一提的是，作为黄金的补充避险资产，白银同样受到资金的持续青 睐。数据显示，今年以来沪银总沉淀资金呈现稳中有增状态，年初总沉淀资金量仅为180亿元，一季度末涨至270亿 ...

Group 1 - The precious metals market is experiencing a strong rally, with silver prices reaching a 13-year high and platinum hitting a two-year high, indicating investor enthusiasm for industrial precious metals [1] - As of Friday, spot silver continued its upward trend, having surged 4.5% the previous day, while platinum prices rose by 1.7% during the day, and gold also saw an increase [1] - The recent price increases are driven by both technical momentum and fundamental improvements, with strong physical silver demand in India and a recovery in platinum demand in China providing significant market support [1] Group 2 - Over the past 12 months, gold has risen over 40%, primarily supported by escalating global trade tensions and continued central bank purchases [1] - Although silver and platinum have year-to-date increases of approximately 19% and 13% respectively, they lag behind gold; however, their industrial properties are crucial drivers, with silver being a key material for solar panels and platinum widely used in internal combustion engines and catalytic converters [1] - Predictions indicate that both silver and platinum markets may face supply shortages this year [1] Group 3 - If silver can maintain a price above $35 per ounce, it may trigger increased retail investor interest; platinum ETF holdings have increased by over 3% since mid-May, indicating a return of funds to the market [1] - Silver ETFs have seen continuous inflows since February, with a nearly 8% increase in holdings [1] - Palladium prices also rose by 1.4% on Friday, influenced by market sentiment [1] Group 4 - As of the latest report, spot gold is priced at $3,368.87 per ounce, with a weekly increase of 2.4%, while the Bloomberg Dollar Index has slightly risen by 0.1% [2] - The market is focused on upcoming U.S. employment data, with an unexpected rise in initial jobless claims reinforcing expectations for at least two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year [2] - The current precious metals rally reflects a blend of safe-haven demand and industrial recovery, with silver and platinum needing to maintain key price levels while monitoring ETF fund flows and economic data for sustainability of the upward trend [2]

工业贵金属的集体"暴动"仍在继续。 6月6日周五，现货白银延续隔夜涨势突破36美元关口，创2012年2月以来最高水平，周四白银曾大涨4.5%。铂金同步冲高，上涨1.2%至1154.73美 元/盎司，创下两年多来的新高。 截至周四的过去12个月，白银和铂金分别上涨了19%和13%。 在整个贵金属板块情绪改善的推动下，黄金一度上涨0.5%至每盎司3,368.79美元，有望实现约2.4%的周度涨幅。 工业属性贵金属的集体飙升，市场在定价什么？ 据MKS PAMP SA金属策略主管Nicky Shiels分析，这波涨势得益于整个金属板块的技术面动能以及改善中的基本面因素。印度强劲的白银实物需 求和中国铂金需求的复苏进一步强化了这轮涨势。 与此同时，白银、铂金等正在技术性补涨。 白银和铂金通常与黄金同步交易，黄金被视为地缘政治不确定时期的传统避险资产。过去12个月，受益于美国主导的关税战升级以及各国央行持 续大举购金，黄金涨幅高达42%。相比之下，白银涨幅约15%，明显落后。 供需失衡将延续，工业需求支撑长期走势 白银和铂金虽然涨幅落后于更昂贵的黄金，但它们在工业领域同样具有重要价值。 投资机构MKS PAMP的分析师 ...

Group 1 - International gold prices increased, with COMEX gold rising by 0.51% to $3392.6 per ounce as of the report [1] - Shanghai Gold ETF (159830) saw a slight increase of 0.09% in the afternoon, with a trading volume exceeding 17 million yuan, and it closely tracks Shanghai Gold (SHAU.SGE) [2] - The management fee for Shanghai Gold ETF is 0.25%, and the custody fee is 0.05%, both lower than the average for similar products, and it supports T+0 trading [2] Group 2 - The US dollar index fell by 0.07% to 98.74, reaching a near 32-day low, with a cumulative decline of nearly 9% this year [2] - East China Futures noted that the weakening dollar and weak US data supported a slight increase in precious metals, with expectations of short-term strength due to ongoing geopolitical risks and US economic weakness [2] - Debon Securities maintains a positive outlook on gold, citing ongoing uncertainties in global trade and the weakening global position of the US dollar as factors that could provide lasting support for gold prices [3]

·DeCarley Trading：金价在10月前涨至每盎司4000美元的可能性并不大 ·金源期货：市场正等待本周五的非农就业报告 ·光大期货：金价短期偏强对待关注地缘局势进展 ·国投期货：贵金属处于震荡局面金价背靠3000美元强支撑维持回调买入思路 ·盛宝银行：宏观经济环境开始支持贵金属创下新高的可能性 【机构分析】 ·国投期货表示，隔夜黄金偏强震荡，白银波动有限。美国5月ADP就业人数新增3.7万人大幅低于预期和 前值，非制造业PMI降至49.9为2024年6月以来的最低，关税背景下经济承压，聚焦周五非农指引。美 联储方面近期表态谨慎，特朗普再次催促降息。贵金属处于震荡局面，金价背靠3000美元强支撑维持回 调买入思路。 ·盛宝银行（Saxo Bank）大宗商品策略主管Ole Hansen表示，黄金和白银价格正在突破，宏观经济环境 正开始支持贵金属创下新高的可能性。6月刚过几天，市场就迅速发生变化，黄金，更显著的是白银， 突破了关键的技术障碍。直接催化剂是美元的进一步下跌，美元指数目前接近两年低点。然而，在表象 之下，重新抬头的地缘局势风险和贸易战焦虑也助长整个贵金属体系的看涨势头。尽管仍对宣布金价即 将 ...

贵金属日报:聚焦非农 回调布多 夏莹莹（投资咨询证号：Z0016569） 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年6月5日 【南华观点】 中长线或偏多，短线延续震荡调整，关注90天关税暂停观察期在后半程的博弈与进展，预计随着波动下 降，贵金属选择向上突破可能性大于向下。伦敦金阻力3385-3400区域，强阻力3440-3500区域；支撑 3355，3300，3200，3100；伦敦银支撑34.2，33.6，阻力上移至34.8-35区域。我们仍将短线回调视为 中长期做多机会，但近期或维持高位震荡为主。 【行情回顾】 周三贵金属震荡微涨，晚间公布的美ADP小非农与ISM服务业PMI数据不佳，略微提升美联储年内降息 预期，特别是9月降息预期有所回升，推动美指与10Y美债收益率回落，利多贵金属价格。最终黄金2508 合约收报3397.4美元/盎司，+0.6%；美白银2507合约收报于34.655美元/盎司，+0.06%。 SHFE黄金 2508主力合约收报782.42元/克，-0.41%；SHFE白银2508合约收8463元/千克，+0.05%。 【资金与库存】 据CME"美联储观察"数据显示，美 ...