Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fluctuations in gold prices influenced by geopolitical tensions, U.S. monetary policy, and market sentiment, indicating a potential bullish trend in the long term despite short-term volatility [1][3][5]. Group 1: Gold Price Movements - On June 23, gold opened over $20 higher but later fell, reaching a low of $3347.10 before recovering slightly to close at $3368.96, reflecting a daily fluctuation of $48.78 [1][3]. - The price was initially supported by geopolitical tensions but faced resistance due to profit-taking and comments from President Trump regarding a ceasefire between Israel and Iran [1][3]. - The outlook for June 24 suggests continued volatility, with gold prices expected to test previous lows while being supported by a declining U.S. dollar index [3][5]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Central Bank Policies - Upcoming economic data releases, including the U.S. current account and consumer confidence index, are anticipated to positively impact gold prices [5]. - The article highlights that the market's focus is shifting back to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and the economic impact of tariffs, with expectations of potential interest rate cuts later in the year [5][6]. Group 3: Long-term Outlook for Gold - Despite short-term fluctuations, the long-term outlook for gold remains bullish, with expectations of prices potentially exceeding $4000 in the next year due to ongoing geopolitical risks and central bank gold purchases [6][7]. - The technical analysis indicates that gold prices are in a bullish trend, supported by moving averages, although there are concerns about a potential peak in the near term [9][11].

每经编辑｜毕陆名 美东时间周一，截至收盘，道琼斯工业平均指数比前一交易日上涨374.96点，收于42581.78点，涨幅为0.89%；标准普 尔500种股票指数上涨57.33点，收于6025.17点，涨幅为0.96%；纳斯达克综合指数上涨183.56点，收于19630.97点，涨 幅为0.94%。 大型科技股多数上涨，特斯拉大涨超8%，创4月28日以来最大单日涨幅。稳定币第一股Circle涨超9%，上市以来累涨 约750%。平价减肥药供应商Hims收跌近35%，创美国IPO以来最差单日表现。 热门中概股多数上涨，纳斯达克中国金龙指数涨0.85%。 富时A50期指连续夜盘收涨0.13%，报13392点。 周一（6月23日）纽约尾盘（周二北京时间04:59），离岸人民币（CNH）兑美元报7.1751元，较上周五纽约尾盘涨40 点，连续第三个交易日走强，日内整体交投于7.1926~7.1751元区间。 商品市场方面，周一（6月23日）纽约尾盘，WTI原油期货下跌8.98%，报67.21美元，布伦特原油下跌7.62%，报69.73 美元。 COMEX黄金期货涨0.11%，报3387.8美元/盎司；COMEX白银期货涨 ...

在美伊冲突再起之际，油价周一却意外大幅下跌，显示出市场对局势缓和的预期正在增强。 | 能源化工 区 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | NYMEX WTI原油 | ICE布油 | ICE轻质低硫原油 | | 67.23 | 69.67 | 66.05 | | -6.61 -8.95% | -5.81 -7.70% | -5.96 -8.28% | | INE原油 | INE低硫燃料油 | NYMEX天然气 | | 537.7 | 3988 | 3.679 | | -32.2 -5.65% | | -2 -0.05% -0.168 -4.37% | 当地时间6月23日，伊朗对美国驻卡塔尔基地的报复性打击没有投资者担心的那么严重，从而缓解了市场对冲突将立即中断中东供应的担忧，油价因此下 跌。伊朗向美国驻卡塔尔基地发射导弹后，美油暴跌4%，交易商此前担心伊朗的报复性反应将涉及关闭霍尔木兹海峡，全球约五分之一的石油通过该海 峡。虽然最初有人担心伊朗会干扰供应以报复美国，但这种担心已经有所减弱。"这似乎是精心策划的，伊朗袭击了一个空无一人的美国基地，提前发出 了大量警告，并关闭了领空，还提供了躲避指 ...

Core Insights - WTI crude oil futures increased by over 0.4%, reaching $74.14 [1] - Spot gold rose by 0.7%, approaching a daily high of $3,395.07 per ounce [1] - U.S. major indices turned negative, with the S&P 500 down over 0.1%, the Dow Jones down over 0.2%, and the Nasdaq down approximately 0.2% [1] - The Nasdaq Biotechnology Index fell by 1.1% [1] - Reports indicate that Iran is moving missile launchers, potentially preparing to target U.S. military forces [1]

中东地区因为历史上频繁的冲突，素有"火药桶"之称。对于这一地区的地缘政治风险对国际油价的影 响，王宁表示，从历史上以色列与中东国家的冲突对油价走势的影响来看，短期内市场由于对短期供给 的担忧，推高了油价，但随着事态发展，冲突对油价的影响效应将减弱。突发事件在供给中断续期造成 影响的阶段将影响油价，如果冲突并未升级，后续油价将逐渐回落。 谈及以伊冲突对国际油价造成的长期影响，林伯强表示："从当前的局势来看，伊朗与以色列的冲突仍 然在持续。油价目前要降下去确实比较难。OPEC+（OPEC与非OPEC产油国联盟）增产对当前的国际 油价走势影响并不大。我觉得油价短期不是看空，而是看涨。核心问题就是涨多少。" 不过，林伯强还表示："油价表现目前比较温和。从当前国际油价变动情况来看，伊朗关闭霍尔木兹海 峡的可能性不大。一旦这一原油大通道关闭，国际油价上涨到130美元/桶是有可能的。" 截至6月23日下午3时，布伦特原油价格为77.36美元/桶，涨幅0.45%。 伊朗是OPEC（石油输出国组织）第三大产油国。EIA（美国能源信息署）数据显示，5月份伊朗的原油 产量为3.35百万桶/日。 油气公司业内人士王宁（化名）向记者表 ...

央广网北京6月23日消息（记者 牛谷月）随着美国袭击伊朗核设施，中东冲突再次升级，全球市场不确 定性大增。 全球股市普遍受挫 当地时间周一（6月23日）开盘，全球股市主要股指多数下跌。 美股三大指数小幅低开，道指跌0.11%，纳指跌0.12%，标普500指数跌0.03%。 欧股开盘普跌，德国DAX指数跌0.48%，英国富时100指数跌0.31%，欧洲斯托克50指数跌0.44%，意大 利富时MIB指数向下触及39000点，跌幅0.79%。 亚市主要股指普遍下跌。截至23日收盘，日经225指数收盘下跌49.14点，跌幅0.13%，报38354.09点； 韩国综合指数收跌0.24%，报3014.47点；富时新加坡海峡指数收跌0.11%，报3879.26点，恒生指数低开 高走，收盘上涨0.67%，报23689.13点。 A股方面，主要指数23日早盘震荡下行，午后拉升转涨。截至收盘，沪指涨0.65%报3381点，深证成指 涨0.43%，创业板指涨0.39%。全天成交1.13万亿元，较前一交易日增量552亿元，全市场超4400股上 涨。 广发证券研报显示，近期区域冲突再升级，触发全球风险偏好下行，A股顺势休整。预计地缘冲 ...

Group 1: Investment Strategy Overview - The report emphasizes that the stock market is at a technical support level, but volatility has reached a new low since 2024, indicating that a trend change may be imminent [5][21]. - The A-share market's trading volume reached 1.12 trillion, an increase of 54.9 billion compared to the previous trading day, with market focus on stablecoins, port shipping, and solid-state batteries [21]. - The report suggests that the probability of an upward trend in the index is low, and managing positions is the best strategy [21]. Group 2: Bond Market Insights - The bond market is expected to benefit from inflows of risk-averse capital, as the overall market remains volatile with a lack of positive news [18][8]. - The report notes that the bond market may regain upward momentum due to increased demand for safe-haven assets [8]. Group 3: Foreign Exchange Market Analysis - The onshore RMB against the USD was reported at 7.1876, an increase of 91 basis points from the previous close, indicating a potential strengthening of the RMB [33]. - Despite short-term fluctuations, the long-term trend for the USD remains bearish [33]. Group 4: Commodity Market Trends - The Wenhua Commodity Index fell by 0.13%, with strong performance in the energy sector but poor performance in agricultural and chemical products [38]. - The report advises caution for investors who have not participated at lower levels, suggesting a wait-and-see approach due to high volatility in oil and related products [38].

2025.06. 23 本文字数：1338，阅读时长大约3分钟 数小时前，美国国土安全部也通过美国全国恐怖主义警报系统发布警告称，黑客分子可能对美国网络 发动低级别网络攻击，以伊冲突可能会促使美国境内的暴力极端分子策划更多袭击。 作者 | 第一财经 程程 图源 | 6月22日在以色列中部内斯齐约纳拍摄的在导弹袭击中被毁的建筑 （新华社图） 据央视新闻，当地时间6月22日，美国国务院发布全球安全警报，警告因以色列与伊朗冲突升级，可 能在全球范围内引发针对美国公民或美国利益的抗议活动。 全球安全警报指出，中东地区目前空中交通已受干扰，部分空域临时关闭，同时"存在针对美国海外 公民和利益的潜在示威风险"，美方建议全球范围内的美国公民"增强安全意识"。 22日，美国国务院还发布公告称，美国驻耶路撒冷大使馆和特拉维夫分馆将于6月23日停止提供紧急 美国护照服务。公告还称，美国大使馆知悉目前有第三方机构正在协助美国公民经陆路离开以色列前 往约旦和埃及，以及经海路离开以色列前往塞浦路斯。美国大使馆还建议希望离开伊朗的美国公民， 在认为情况安全的情况下经陆路前往阿塞拜疆、亚美尼亚或土耳其。 据报道，由于以伊冲突，以色列、伊拉 ...

| /// ◆ 国技期货 | | 能源 日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | 操作评级 | | 2025年06月23日 | | 原油 | ★☆★ | 高明宇 首席分析师 | | 燃料油 | ★☆☆ | F0302201 Z0012038 | | 低硫燃料油 ★☆☆ | | 李祖智 中级分析师 | | 沥青 | ★☆☆ | F3063857 Z0016599 | | 液化石油气 ★☆☆ | | | | | | 王盈敏 中级分析师 | | | | F3066912 Z0016785 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【原油】 上周国际油价继续上行,布伦特08合约涨2.85%,SC08合约涨8.82%;今日开盘后外盘市场高开低走,SC日内涨 0.3%。周日美国袭击伊朗三处核设施，有迹象表明伊朗欲采取的报复回应包括但不限于袭击美国驻伊拉克、叙 利亚美军基地,且伊朗议会已批准封锁霍尔木兹海峡,最终决定由最高安全机构决定。我们始终认为在美伊重 返谈判泉或伊朗政权更替前,伊朗的能源基础设施及霍尔木兹海峡通行相关的供应风险依 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bean Meal**: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - position trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - **Eggs**: ★☆☆, representing a bullish bias, with a driving force for price increase but poor operability on the trading floor [1] Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the market conditions of multiple agricultural products, including soybeans, bean meal, edible oils, corn, hogs, and eggs. It takes into account factors such as weather, geopolitics, policies, and supply - demand relationships, and provides corresponding investment suggestions and trend judgments for each product [2][3][7] Summaries by Agricultural Product Categories Soybeans and Related Products - **Domestic Soybeans**: The remaining domestic soybean inventory at the grass - roots level is low, and the policy is conducting auctions for supplementation. Short - term weather is favorable for domestic soybean growth. For imported soybeans, attention should be paid to the report on the new soybean planting area in the US at the end of June, and short - term weather is also beneficial for US soybean growth [2] - **Soybeans and Bean Meal**: The Israel - Iran war has led to a continuous rise in crude oil prices, driving up the prices of oil - related futures. US soybean growing conditions are favorable in the next two weeks. Domestically, soybean arrivals have increased since May, supply has become more abundant, and bean meal inventory is expected to continue to rise. The soybean market is currently in a volatile state, and attention should be paid to changes in the oil market and future weather [3] - **Soybean Oil and Palm Oil**: CBOT soybeans should be monitored for the new planting area report at the end of June. The short - term weather outlook is beneficial for US soybeans. CBOT soybean oil prices are strong. Domestically, there is a large arrival pressure in the short term, and the fourth - quarter procurement progress is slower than usual. The long - term view is to maintain a long - position allocation for vegetable oils, and short - term attention should be paid to the long - short game [4] Rapeseed Products - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: Rapeseed meal prices generally declined today, while rapeseed oil prices showed mixed trends. The weather in Canadian rapeseed - producing areas is dry, and the crop quality is below the average in recent years. Domestic rapeseed crushing has declined, which supports the high price difference between rapeseed products and competing products. The impact of geopolitical risks and biodiesel policies has been mostly digested, and there is a risk of price decline. The strategy for rapeseed products is to shift from a bullish stance to a wait - and - see approach [6] Corn - The introduction of the minimum wheat purchase price policies in Henan and Anhui has strengthened the price increase expectations of corn/wheat. The supply of corn in the circulation link has tightened, and the futures market may continue to fluctuate [7] Hogs - The weekend increase in hog spot prices drove the futures market to open higher today and then fluctuate. In the short term, group farms are reducing supply to support prices, and the enthusiasm for secondary fattening has increased. In the medium term, the pressure on hog slaughter is large. In the long term, the policy aims to stabilize hog prices, and attention should be paid to when the production capacity reaches an inflection point [8] Eggs - Due to the high number of chick replenishments from January to April this year, egg - laying capacity is still being released. The long - term egg price cycle has not reached the bottom, and there is a possibility of further decline in the far - month contracts [9]