Core Viewpoint - The capital market is focusing on precious metals, with significant price increases in silver and gold driven by global liquidity expectations and geopolitical risks [1][3][4]. Group 1: Price Movements - On November 28, international silver prices reached a historic high of $57.245 per ounce, with a weekly increase of 13% [1]. - London spot silver also surpassed $56.5 per ounce, with a daily increase of over 4% [1]. - COMEX gold futures rose above $4263 per ounce, while LME copper prices approached historical highs, indicating a broad rally in precious metals [1]. Group 2: Domestic Market Reaction - The A-share precious metals sector saw a broad increase on the following Monday, with Yintai Gold rising by 6.21% and other key stocks like Shengda Resources and Hunan Gold increasing by over 4% [3]. - The Shanghai silver futures contract opened with a 3.8% increase, reaching the 6500 yuan per kilogram mark, while the Shanghai gold futures contract rose by 1.2% to stabilize above 480 yuan per gram [3]. - The surge in international prices ignited domestic investor sentiment, leading to a doubling of trading volume in precious metal ETFs [3]. Group 3: Driving Factors - The primary driver of the recent surge in precious metals is the strengthened expectation of global liquidity easing, with the probability of a Fed rate cut in December rising from 65% to 82% [3]. - Geopolitical risks, particularly tensions in the Middle East and supply chain concerns, have heightened market risk aversion, contributing to the price increases [4]. - The recovery in industrial demand, especially in solar energy and electric vehicles, is supporting silver prices, with predictions of a 15% increase in silver demand from the solar sector by 2025 [4]. Group 4: Market Outlook - Optimistic views, represented by Goldman Sachs, have raised the 12-month price targets for gold to $4500 per ounce and silver to $65 per ounce, citing ongoing central bank gold purchases and declining real interest rates [5]. - Cautious perspectives from firms like Zhao Shang Securities warn of potential short-term volatility risks, suggesting that precious metal prices may have already priced in rate cut expectations [5]. - Investors are advised to consider diversifying through precious metal ETFs and funds, while long-term investors should focus on gold's asset allocation value and adjust silver holdings based on industrial demand data [5].

期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每日早盘观察 银河期货研究所 2025 年 12 月 1 日 0 / 48 研究所 期货眼·日迹 | 钢材：钢价区间震荡，成本存在支撑 13 | | --- | | 双焦：震荡运行 可逢低轻仓试多远月合约 13 | | 铁矿：偏空思路对待 14 | | 铁合金：减产趋势下价格底部震荡 15 | | 金银：12 月降息再成基准情景 金银维持偏强走势 17 | | --- | | 铂钯：铂钯价格上周五小幅回调，今晨注意跳空高开风险 18 | | 铜：美铜高升水，非美地区供应担忧加剧 18 | | 氧化铝：减产难落地 氧化铝持续承压 19 | | 电解铝：宏微观共振 铝价偏强运行 20 | | 铸造铝合金：铝合金随铝价偏强运行 21 | | 锌：宽幅震荡 22 | | 铅：关注冶炼成本支撑有效性 23 | | --- | | 镍：减产刺激镍价反弹 库存压制高度 24 | | 不锈钢：供需两弱 等待宏观刺激 25 | | 工业硅：区间震荡，短期多单及时兑现收益 25 | | 多晶硅：短期偏强，但有回落风险 26 | | 碳酸锂：长线回调充分买入 26 | | 锡：刚果（金）矿端供应扰动，锡价冲高 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that amid increasing geopolitical tensions and global economic uncertainties, the medium to long-term demand for gold as a safe-haven asset is expected to continue growing [1] - The supply side of copper is under pressure while the demand side is continuously increasing, suggesting a favorable supply-demand balance for copper and aluminum [1] - The global easing cycle has opened up macroeconomic space, indicating that industrial metal prices still possess upward momentum [1] Group 2 - The mining ETF (561330) tracks the non-ferrous mining index (931892), which selects listed companies involved in precious metals, industrial metals, and rare metals to reflect the overall performance of the non-ferrous metal mining industry [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long - term holding [1] - Silver: Cautious long [1] - Copper: Long - term holding [1] - Zinc: Under pressure [1] - Lead: Under pressure [1] - Tin: Bullish [1] - Aluminum: Rebound [1] - Nickel: Rebound under pressure [1] - Industrial silicon: Range - bound [1] - Polysilicon: Cautious long [1] - Lithium carbonate: Cautious long [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Gold and Silver**: Short - term silver has a large - scale market affecting gold; geopolitical uncertainties and central bank gold - buying support long - term gold investment; silver has long - term supply - demand gaps and short - term price increases, but caution is needed [1][2] - **Copper**: Global copper supply is tight, prices hit new highs; avoid blind chasing, long - term bullish outlook [1][5][6] - **Zinc**: Short - term wide - range fluctuations, long - term supply increase and demand decrease, maintain the view of shorting on rebounds [1][8][9] - **Aluminum**: Short - term price rebound, pay attention to inventory changes [1][10][13] - **Nickel**: Rebound under pressure, pay attention to downstream stainless - steel inventory [1][14][17] - **Lithium carbonate**: Total inventory decreases for 15 consecutive weeks, wait for long - entry opportunities after high - level consolidation [1][18][20] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: Silver experiences a short - term delivery squeeze, gold has long - term support [2] - **Basic Logic**: Powell's resignation rumor, geopolitical variables, long - term bullish for gold due to global monetary easing and geopolitical restructuring; silver has long - term supply - demand gaps [2] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term pay attention to support levels, long - term value - based holdings, short - term caution [2] Copper - **Market Review**: LME copper hits a new high, SHFE copper follows [4][5] - **Industry Logic**: Global copper concentrate supply is tight, production declines, inventory changes, and high premiums [5] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Avoid blind chasing, set trailing stops for long positions, long - term bullish, pay attention to price ranges [6] Zinc - **Market Review**: SHFE zinc fluctuates in a range [8] - **Industry Logic**: Domestic zinc concentrate processing fees decline, production and inventory changes, soft squeeze risk eases [8] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait for more macro guidance, long - term short on rebounds, pay attention to price ranges [9] Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum price rebounds slightly, alumina is weak [10][11] - **Industry Logic**: Electrolytic aluminum supply is tight, demand improves; alumina is in excess, pay attention to bauxite supply [12] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term take profit and wait, pay attention to inventory changes, pay attention to price ranges [13] Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel price rebounds under pressure, stainless steel falls [14][15] - **Industry Logic**: Indonesia may cut nickel production, inventory changes, stainless - steel demand enters the off - season [16] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on dips and wait, pay attention to stainless - steel inventory, pay attention to price ranges [17] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2605 opens low and goes high, slightly falls at the end [18][19] - **Industry Logic**: Total inventory decreases for 15 consecutive weeks, production and demand conditions, wait for long - entry opportunities [20] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Go long on dips, pay attention to price ranges [21]

11月，是很危险的一个月！ 这个月里，股市和黄金这两个前期涨幅很大的主要资产，都迎来急剧震荡。 股市中，最终还是走向了"盘久必跌"，上证指数从4000点一路下挫，勉强守住3800点。科技板块调整更大些， 科创50、科创100指数，期间最大跌幅都近10个点。 黄金呢，美联储降息预期急转弯，美元流动性突然收紧的利空砸向市场，伦敦金从4200美元/盎司的高位直线 跳水。 AI有泡沫！黄金有泡沫！ 这几个月里，市场关于"泡沫"的质疑与担忧越来越大。我们每个人的账户钱袋子，随时都有被快速压扁的可 能。 "危局"中央，外资巨头集体发声唱多中国，唱多黄金！ 对股市，当下大家最担忧的无非集中在3点上。 一是牛市持续时间似乎有点长了。 A股牛短熊长的调性，像一把悬在头顶的达摩克利斯之剑，让很多人对牛市"时长"的风险格外敏感。 如果从去年924行情算起，到现在，这轮牛市已经持续1年零2个月，加上前期4000点附近的盘整已经消耗大量 动能，当下确实不得不让人担心。 二是估值，这往往是泡沫论者最锋利、也最直观的武器。 当前上证指数、沪深300、中证1000指数，近5年PE历史百分位分别来到92.94%、80.78%、95.29%。 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The short - term negative impacts on the oil market have been exhausted, and the geopolitical positive factors are not obvious. In the medium - to - long - term, there is a risk of oversupply. The SC2601 is expected to operate in the range of 450 - 460, and long - term investors are advised to wait and see. [3][6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: The US and Ukraine held talks on a peace agreement with Russia, and OPEC+ agreed to maintain the 2026 oil production quota and establish a capacity assessment mechanism. Saudi Arabia may cut January crude prices for Asian buyers. The overall situation is neutral. [3] - **Basis**: On November 28, the spot prices of Oman and Qatar Marine crude oil were $64.62/barrel and $63.73/barrel respectively, with a basis of 38.48 yuan/barrel, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price, which is bullish. [3] - **Inventory**: The US API crude inventory decreased by 1.859 million barrels in the week ending November 21, while the EIA inventory increased by 2.774 million barrels (expected to increase by 0.055 million barrels). Cushing area inventory decreased by 6,800 barrels. Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained unchanged at 3.464 million barrels as of November 28, which is bullish. [3] - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the price is below the moving average, which is bearish. [3] - **Main positions**: As of October 14, WTI crude oil main positions were long, with a decrease in long positions. As of November 25, Brent crude oil main positions were long, also with a decrease in long positions, which is bearish. [3] - **Expectation**: There was no significant progress in the US - Russia peace talks. The US increased pressure on Venezuela, raising geopolitical concerns. The OPEC+ meeting continued the previous resolution, and the short - term impact on oil prices is weak. The market is focusing on geopolitical conflicts. Military action against Venezuela may boost oil prices in the short term. [3] 3.2 Recent News - OPEC+ agreed to maintain the 2026 oil production quota and establish a mechanism to evaluate member countries' maximum production capacity. Eight OPEC+ countries will suspend production increases in January - March 2026 due to seasonal reasons. [5] - US President Trump tried to negotiate with Venezuelan President Maduro, but the negotiation failed. Trump announced the closure of Venezuela's airspace, and the US military is on standby. Military action may start soon. [5] - US and Ukrainian officials held talks on a peace agreement with Russia, claiming the talks were productive, and the US Secretary of State is optimistic about the progress. [5] 3.3 Long - Short Concerns - **Bullish factors**: Sanctions on Russia are approaching, and OPEC+ will suspend production increases in the first quarter of next year. [6] - **Bearish factors**: The situation in the Middle East is easing, institutions have a consistent expectation of oil oversupply, and there may be a new meeting and negotiation between the US and Russia. [6] - **Market driver**: Short - term negative impacts are exhausted, geopolitical positive factors are not obvious, and there is a risk of oversupply in the medium - to - long - term. [6] 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Futures market**: The settlement prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, SC crude oil, and Oman crude oil changed. Brent crude oil rose by 0.74 to $62.54 (a 1.20% increase), WTI crude oil rose by 0.70 to $58.65 (a 1.21% increase), SC crude oil fell by 4.60 to 442.8 (a 1.03% decrease), and Oman crude oil fell by 0.47 to $62.82 (a 0.74% decrease). [7] - **Spot market**: The prices of various crude oils also changed. For example, UK Brent Dtd rose by 0.39 to $63.56 (a 0.62% increase), and WTI rose by 0.70 to $58.65 (a 1.21% increase). [9] - **Inventory data**: API and EIA inventory data showed different trends. API inventory decreased by 1.859 million barrels in the week ending November 21, while EIA inventory increased by 2.774 million barrels in the same period. [3][10][13] 3.5 Position Data - WTI and Brent crude oil main positions have shown a decrease in long positions recently. For example, as of November 25, Brent crude oil main positions decreased by 57,430 to 120,934. [3][18][19]

行业 贵金属日评 日期 2025 年 12 月 1 日 请阅读正文后的声明 宏观金融团队 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 021-60635739 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 每日报告 一、贵金属行情及展望 日内行情： 因美联储降息预期继续发酵，中国印度年底首饰消费旺季即将到来，同时特 朗普称美国将很快对委内瑞拉展开地面行动，旺季需求预期、流动性溢价预期和 避险需求推动近期贵金属偏强运行，伦敦黄金进一步反弹至 4200 美元/盎司附近； 由于美联储降息改善美国甚至全球经济增长前景，工业属性较强的白银走势强于 黄金，伦敦金银比值跌破 78，在铂钯上市炒作背景下短期内白银仍将强于黄金。 中短期内多空因素交织，我们判断伦敦黄金需要在 3880-4380 美元/盎司的 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - The crude oil market maintains a volatile pattern, with short - term multi - and short - factors in balance, but the medium - to long - term supply surplus pressure remains unchanged, and oil prices are in a volatile downward trend. Attention should be paid to OPEC+ policy implementation and the substantial progress of Russia - Ukraine peace talks [1]. - Near - term oil prices are difficult to break out of the volatile range, and it is recommended to play lightly within the range. The long - term trading logic depends on the evolution of the supply - demand pattern. If the Russia - Ukraine conflict eases and US sanctions on Russia loosen, and OPEC+ production policies are relaxed, supply pressure will increase, while the global economic weakness may limit demand growth [3]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The crude oil market shows a volatile pattern. Geopolitical factors such as the Russia - Ukraine peace talks and US sanctions on Russian energy companies support oil prices at the bottom, but the expectation of increased Russian oil exports due to potential sanctions relief and long - term supply surplus concerns suppress oil prices. Asian traders expect Saudi Aramco to lower the official selling price of Arabian Light crude oil to Asia, weakening the support for oil prices [1]. 1.2 Speculative Strategy Recommendations - **Market Positioning**: The short - term market is volatile and relatively stable. - **Strategy Suggestions**: For single - side trading, operate within the range, paying attention to the potential pressure around $65/barrel and support around $62/ton for Brent crude oil. For arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [6]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Focus Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: Tensions in Venezuela with the US, the UK's delay in sanctioning Lukoil, and two oil tankers exploding and catching fire in the Black Sea may support oil prices [7][8]. - **Negative Information**: The Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation lowered the official selling prices of most of its December - loaded crude oil grades [10]. 2.2 Next Week's Focus Events - **Russia - Ukraine Peace Talks**: The progress of the talks will affect market expectations of Russian oil supply. A breakthrough may increase supply surplus concerns, while a deadlock may raise geopolitical risk premiums [11]. - **OPEC+ Ministerial Meeting**: OPEC+ may keep the Q1 2026 oil production unchanged, and the market is worried about supply surplus risks [11]. Chapter 3: Market Interpretation 3.1 Volume, Price, and Capital Interpretation - **Trend Analysis**: International oil prices remain stable, continuing the recent volatile pattern and declining for the fourth consecutive month [14]. - **Domestic Market**: The SC2601 contract of the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed at 455.9 yuan/ton last week, up 0.44% week - on - week. The trading volume was 55,800 lots, and the open interest was 73,000 lots [16][17]. - **International Market**: The settlement price of the ICE Brent crude oil futures main contract was $62.38/barrel, up 0.69% week - on - week; the NYMEX WTI crude oil futures main contract settled at $58.48/barrel, up 0.86% week - on - week. The trading volume of the Brent contract was 1.5387 million lots, and the WTI contract had a trading volume of 1.4125 million lots with an open interest of 379,500 lots, an increase of 42,000 lots [18][19]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Crude Oil Market Calendar Spread Tracking - As of November 28, the Brent calendar spread (01 - 03) was $1.23/barrel, the WTI calendar spread (01 - 03) was $0.46/barrel, and the SC calendar spread (01 - 03) was - 5.6 yuan/barrel [28]. 4.2 Crude Oil Regional Spread Tracking - As of November 28, the SC - Brent spread was $0.58/barrel, and the Brent - WTI spread was $4.65/barrel [31]. 4.3 Crude Oil Downstream Valuation Tracking - This week, the crude oil crack spreads in the European market weakened across the board. In North America and the Asia - Pacific region, diesel crack spreads were stronger than gasoline. The crack spreads in the Chinese market strengthened, and refinery profits were divided. The East - West crack spreads weakened [44]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Projections 5.1 Supply - Side Tracking - EIA slightly raises the forecasts for global and US crude oil production in 2025 and 2026. In October, global crude oil and related liquid production decreased by 310,000 barrels per day compared to September, while US crude oil production increased by 10,000 barrels per day [77]. 5.2 Demand - Side Tracking - The report provides seasonal data on US refinery crude oil weekly feed and operating rates, as well as Chinese refinery operating rates, reflecting the demand situation in the refining industry [68][70]. 5.3 Inventory - Side Tracking - The report shows seasonal data on US commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) and Cushing crude oil inventories [74]. 5.4 Import - Export Tracking - The report presents seasonal data on US and Russian crude oil export volumes and related shipping data [76]. 5.5 Balance Sheet Tracking - In October, OPEC and Non - OPEC DoC countries' crude oil production decreased compared to September. EIA slightly raises the forecasts for OPEC countries' crude oil production in 2025 and 2026 [77].

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 风险分析： 上游资本开支增速不及预期、原油和天然气价格大幅波动。 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 地缘冲突缓和预期走强，本周油价低位震荡 OPEC+有望在周日的会议上维持现有的石油产量水平不变，并将推动制定一项新机制，以评估成员国最 大产能；而OPEC+自愿减产8国将维持其暂停增产的决定。当前原油市场仍面临供需过剩，本次 OPEC+放缓增产决策有望改善过剩风险。需求端，IEA于2025年11月月报预计2026年原油需求增长77 万桶/日，供给端，IEA预计2026年全球原油供给增长250万桶/日，其中非OPEC+增长120万桶/日， OPEC+增长130万桶/日。当前美联储重启降息周期，全球贸易冲突风险仍具不确定性，建议关注26年需 求预期变化对油价的影响。 "三桶油" ...

是华尔街的又一次自导自演，还是背后藏着什么我们看不懂的惊天大棋？ 那个被无数人捧上神坛，号称开启了新时代的人工智能"皇帝"，竟然会在一夜之间被拉下马，股价跌得像瀑布一样，这到底是咋回事？ 你敢信吗？ 最近这阵子，但凡手里有点闲钱买了股票的，估计心都提到嗓子眼了。 尤其是那些重仓了科技股的朋友，看着账户里的数字，简直比坐过山车还刺激。 风暴的中心，就是那个大名鼎鼎的英伟达。 前一天大家还在吹捧它是"宇宙总龙头"，是人类未来的希望之光，结果一觉醒来，它就成了华尔街人人喊打的"落水狗"。 社交媒体上各种小道消息满天飞，说它那几百亿的应收账款可能要打水漂，仓库里堆满了卖不出去的芯片。 这就好比一个天天在你面前炫耀家里有金矿的土豪，突然被人扒出来，他家的金矿其实是P的图。 这下子，市场直接炸了锅。 恐慌就像病毒一样，瞬间从华尔街传遍了全球。 基金经理们疯了一样抛售，生怕跑慢一步就被埋在里面。 就在所有人都蒙圈的时候，一个传奇人物的名字又被大家提了起来——迈克尔·伯里。 对，就是那个在2008年金融海啸中，全世界都觉得他疯了，他却靠做空次贷一战封神的"大空头"。 这家伙的嗅觉比警犬还灵，他一出手，就意味着有大事要发生。 ...