沥青周度报告 目录 01 报告摘要 03 宏观分析 02 多空焦点 04 供需分析 05 后市研判 阳光光 从业资格号：F03142459 投资咨询号：Z0021764 中航期货 2026-1-23 报告PA摘RT要 01 （1）IEA月报将2026年全球石油供应增长预期从240万桶/日上调至250万桶/日。 重点数据 （1）截止1月21日，国内沥青样本企业开工率26.8%，较上一统计周期下降0.4个百分点。 （2）截止1月23日，国内沥青周度产量47.6万吨，环比上周减少1.2万吨。 主要观点 在基本面与成本端的共同作用下，本周沥青盘面整体呈现震荡偏强格局。当前沥青基本面变化有限，但原料供应 偏紧及后续稀释沥青进口受限的预期改善供应端前景。尽管市场已对稀释沥青进口收紧有所定价，但其实际进口仍存 在较大不确定性。随着美国进一步介入委内瑞拉原油领域，当前委油主要流向欧美市场，即便后续国内地炼恢复进口， 此前的高贴水格局也可能难以维持，稀释沥青的成本优势或将削弱，从而推升行业整体成本，抑制地炼开工积极性。 与此同时，油价偏强运行从成本端提供支撑。当前中东地缘风险虽短暂缓和但并未消除，美国正加速在该区域集结军 事力 ...

黄金又双叒叕创历史新高了！ 国内品牌金饰价格更是单日大幅跳涨，1月23日老庙黄金足金报价1548元/克，单日上涨52元/克；周生 生报价1545元/克，单日上涨53元/克；老凤祥报价1538元/克，单日上涨43元/克，均站上历史高位。 1月，伦敦现货黄金从每盎司4300美元附近一路上扬，23日盘中一度超过每盎司4960美元，月内涨幅近 15%。 受此影响，上海黄金交易所现货黄金价格、上海期货交易所上市的黄金期货主力合约23日盘中均突破每 克1110元，多家品牌金店的足金饰品报价突破每克1500元关口，一些品牌的足金饰品报价达每克1548 元，较前一日单克上涨超50元，再创历史新高。 国际银价也迎来突破，现货白银站上96美元/盎司。 在美联储降息预期、地缘政治风险等多重因素推动下，各大机构纷纷上调黄金目标价，金价向5000美元 关口发起冲击，贵金属市场迎来历史性行情。 内外金价齐创新高 1月23日早盘，现货黄金直线拉涨，盘中最高触及4967美元/盎司，纽约期金同步突破4960美元/盎司。 回溯行情，当地时间22日尾盘现货黄金已突破4900美元/盎司，日内涨超2%，本周涨幅超7%、涨超300 美元/盎司，1月以来 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent diplomatic turmoil surrounding Greenland has highlighted President Trump's erratic decision-making style, leading to a temporary easing of trade tensions but deepening trust deficits among European allies [1][3]. Group 1: Trump's Diplomatic Maneuvers - Trump's agreement with NATO regarding Greenland and Arctic cooperation is vague, primarily addressing mineral rights and missile defense without deeper institutional constraints, raising doubts about U.S. policy credibility [3]. - The uncertainty stemming from Trump's inconsistent strategies is seen as a factor that could weaken EU unity, with European officials expressing concerns over the reliability of U.S. commitments [3]. Group 2: Gold Pricing Dynamics - In the context of Trump's unpredictable policies and rising geopolitical risks in Europe, gold is increasingly viewed as the "ultimate safe-haven asset," with market sentiment pushing gold prices towards the psychological barrier of $5,000 [5]. - The shift in market pricing logic indicates that investors are now focusing on "global order turmoil" rather than just traditional inflation data, contributing to the rapid rise in gold prices [5]. Group 3: Key Variables for Investors - Investors need to reassess strategies in light of the Greenland situation, particularly monitoring the correlation between the U.S. dollar and European developments, including potential retaliatory actions from the Eurozone against U.S. economic pressure [7]. - The geopolitical risks and the temporary nature of Trump's tariff plans suggest that uncertainty will continue to affect global markets, with gold emerging as a new allocation opportunity amid these conditions [7].

以下是各大品牌金店详细报价： 今日金价 单位 变动幅度 涨跌 老庙黄金价格 今日各品牌金价较昨日出现显著上调。老庙黄金以1548元/克成为今日最高报价，菜百黄金报1482元/ 克，仍为市场最低价。两者价差维持在66元/克，但市场整体价格中枢已大幅上移。 1548 元/克 52 涨 六福黄金价格 1540 元/克 44 涨 周大福黄金价格 1542 今日金店黄金价格一览（2026年1月23日） 金店报价 1540 元/克 44 涨 周六福黄金价格 1533 元/克 40 涨 金至尊黄金价格 元/克 44 涨 老凤祥黄金价格 1538 元/克 43 涨 潮宏基黄金价格 1542 元/克 44 涨 周生生黄金价格 1545 元/克 53 涨 菜百黄金价格 1482 元/克 50 涨 上海中国黄金价格 1485 元/克 50 涨 周大生黄金价格 1542 元/克 今日黄金价格大涨，黄金回收价格同样，不同品牌回收价差也较大，以下为部分金店回收参考价： 今日金价 1136.20 元/克 周生生黄金 1124.60 元/克 周大福黄金 单位 黄金 1100.00 元/克 菜百黄金 1073.00 元/克 老凤祥黄金 108 ...

Core Viewpoint - The prices of spot gold and silver have reached historical highs, driven by expectations of changes in U.S. Federal Reserve monetary policy and ongoing geopolitical risks [1][6]. Group 1: Gold and Silver Prices - Spot gold prices surged past $4,967 per ounce, while spot silver prices exceeded $99 per ounce [1]. - As of the latest update, spot gold is priced at $4,954.45 per ounce, reflecting a 0.37% increase, and spot silver is at $98.64 per ounce, showing a 2.59% rise [1][3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Analysts attribute the rise in gold prices to strong market expectations that the Federal Reserve will shift its monetary policy, with predictions of 2-3 rate cuts in 2026, which is higher than the Fed's own projections [6]. - Geopolitical tensions are also contributing to the strategic support for gold prices, as global conflicts intensify [6]. Group 3: Investment Products - The surge in gold prices has led to a spike in the issuance of gold-linked structured deposit products by banks, with various offerings from state-owned and foreign banks [7]. - For instance, Bank of China has launched a product with a minimum investment of 10,000 yuan and an expected annual yield ranging from 0.2% to 5.2% [7]. - Some foreign banks are offering structured deposits with annual yields as high as 9.5%, linked to a basket of assets including U.S. and Hong Kong stocks [7]. Group 4: Institutional Participation - The popularity of gold-linked structured deposits is not limited to individual investors; institutional funds are also entering the market, with numerous A-share listed companies announcing investments in these products [10]. - Companies like Jin Hai Gao Ke and Su Jiao Ke have allocated significant amounts, ranging from millions to over a hundred million yuan, into structured deposits linked to gold [10].

By Suzanne McGee and Divya Chowdhury RHODE ISLAND/DAVOS, Jan 23 (Reuters) - Demand for geopolitical analysis is rising, as asset managers and corporate investors seek guidance on the best way to price in risk from wars, territorial saber-rattling and global political risk. The need for such advice was highlighted this week when the ​U.S. threatened various countries with tariffs unless a deal was reached over the U.S. taking control over Greenland, causing a rollercoaster reaction in markets. Other geo ...

Group 1: Geopolitical Risks - Geopolitical risks are expected to remain high, with the U.S. continuing to be a major risk point due to the unpredictable nature of its policies under the Trump administration [7][19] - The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and internal political pressures in Europe may lead to increased difficulties in achieving policy coordination [19] - The expansion of geopolitical risks into technology, economy, and trade sectors is noted, indicating a broader impact on global economic and trade networks [16][19] Group 2: Tariff Policies - Tariff policies are anticipated to have a continued impact on international trade, with potential for easing but still significant disruptions expected [21][30] - The U.S. tariff rate is projected to decrease from a theoretical value of 16.8% to 9.3% if the IEEPA tariffs are deemed unconstitutional, which could improve inflation and GDP outlooks [23][28] - Global trade growth is forecasted to slow down, with the WTO predicting a decline in trade growth rate to 0.5% in 2026 [30][32] Group 3: Federal Reserve Independence - The independence of the Federal Reserve is under scrutiny, particularly with potential candidates for the next chair being more aligned with Trump’s policies, which could undermine its autonomy [8][38] - Historical trends suggest that a loss of independence could lead to increased inflation risks and market volatility [34][45] - The market is closely monitoring the nomination of the next Federal Reserve chair, with candidates like Kevin Hassett and Kevin Warsh having significant implications for monetary policy [38][41] Group 4: Technology Sector Bubble Risks - The technology sector, particularly driven by AI, has seen significant stock price increases, leading to concerns about potential bubbles due to high valuations [2][48] - As of January, the S&P 500 PE ratio is at 25.6, indicating elevated valuation levels compared to historical averages [48][50] - The concentration of market capitalization among the top tech companies remains high, with the top ten companies accounting for 32.8% of the market, raising concerns about market fragility [49][51] Group 5: Fiscal Sustainability Concerns - Concerns regarding fiscal sustainability have intensified, with long-term debt rates remaining high and fiscal deficits expected to persist [9][46] - The trend of expansive fiscal policies is likely to continue, driven by economic pressures from trade wars and increased defense spending [9][46] - The K-shaped recovery in the stock market is anticipated to persist, with interest rate-sensitive sectors facing ongoing pressure [9][46]

Group 1 - International gold prices reached a new high, with spot gold reported at $4879.454 per ounce, marking a 2.45% increase, and COMEX gold futures at $4872.4 per ounce, up 2.24% [1][3] - The recent surge in gold prices is attributed to rising market risk aversion stemming from a trade conflict between the U.S. and Europe over Greenland, following U.S. tariffs on eight European countries and potential EU retaliatory tariffs on $108 billion worth of U.S. goods [3] - Silver prices have also seen significant increases, with London silver at $94.853 per ounce, up over 30% year-to-date, outperforming gold [5][6] Group 2 - Analysts predict that international gold prices will continue to rise, supported by ongoing U.S. fiscal risks, strong global central bank demand for gold, and expectations of a continued interest rate cut cycle in the U.S. [8] - Geopolitical risks are expected to escalate, further increasing market demand for safe-haven assets like gold, particularly due to U.S. military interventions and resource control strategies [8] - Silver prices have increased over 230% since early 2025, with forecasts suggesting silver could reach $100 per ounce soon, although a correction may be imminent due to improving supply factors [10]

2026.01.23 本文字数：2430，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 |第一财经 冯迪凡 新年伊始，美国总统特朗普"反复变卦"，搅动资本市场。 23日，特朗普表态如果欧洲国家因他对格陵兰岛的关税威胁而出售美国资产，美国将采取"大规模报 复"，叠加其他地缘因素，现货黄金强势站上4900美元/盎司，本月涨幅已达13%，累计涨了近600美 元。 长久以来，大西洋两岸的投资一直很通畅。譬如Zara创始人、西班牙人奥特加 (Amancio Ortega)在西雅 图拥有多处房产，其中包括亚马逊公司的办公楼。他还拥有曼哈顿历史悠久的豪沃特大厦以及迈阿密最 高的办公大楼之一。 法国韦特海默家族 (Wertheimer dynasty)在纽约"亿万富翁街"的办公室里管理着巨额财富，其中包括对美 国化妆品零售商Ulta Beauty的投资。 欧洲思索出售美国资产并非空穴来风。据报道，有私人银行家和顾问透露，在特朗普就格陵兰岛发表声 明以及委内瑞拉和伊朗近期发生地缘政治动荡之后，一些欧洲富裕精英开始评估投资组合中对美国的风 险敞口，考虑将部分资金撤出美国资产，以扩大投资的地域多元化，或者降低对美元的依赖。 正在瑞士参加世界经济论坛的 ...

特朗普，再度发出关税威胁！ 据央视新闻报道，美国总统特朗普当地时间22日表示，美国政府将对所有与伊朗进行贸易往来的 国家加征25%的关税，这项措施很快就会生效。特朗普警告称，美国有一支"庞大的舰队"正朝伊 朗驶来。 特朗普所谓"二级关税"并非专业术语，实质上是一种货币制裁手段，施加于那些与美国"不待 见"国家有贸易往来的国家。 1月21日，美国总统特朗普在瑞士达沃斯接受采访时宣称，伊朗必须停止发展核武器，并暗示如 若不然美国可能采取行动。被问及美国正往海湾地区增派航空母舰等军力是否是下一步行动的前 奏，特朗普称，希望不会有进一步行动。不过他同时宣称，伊朗"一直在进行核试验"。 连日来，美国多次以伊朗国内局势为借口，威胁对伊朗进行军事干涉。追踪数据显示，美国"亚 伯拉罕·林肯"号航母已经穿越了马六甲海峡，进入印度洋，并关闭了应答系统，进入静默状态。 预计"林肯"号将在24日抵达阿拉伯海。 伊朗警告美以不要误判形势 伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队总司令穆罕默德·帕克普尔日前表示，美国和以色列不要误判伊朗形势。 据新华社援引伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队旗下媒体赛帕新闻网22日报道，针对近期美国和以色列对伊朗 发出的威胁，帕克普尔警告说， ...