今天（15日），国务院新闻办公室举行新闻发布会。国家统计局新闻发言人表示，"两新"政策带动消费 需求扩大，重点投资增加。 国家统计局新闻发言人 付凌晖：大规模设备更新政策效应显现，企业推动设备更新、加快改造升级意 愿增强，设备投资较快增长，促进了投资扩大，也有利于企业竞争力提升。 设备更新政策，带动重点投资增加。1—11月份，设备工器具购置投资同比增长12.2%，拉动全部投资 增长1.8个百分点。 消费品以旧换新政策发力显效，带动家电、通信等相关商品销售增长加快，促进了商品消费需求扩大。 1—11月份，限额以上单位家用电器和音像器材类、文化办公用品类、通信器材类商品零售额同比分别 增长14.8%、18.2%和20.9%。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the home appliance industry, indicating an expectation of returns that outperform the market benchmark by over 5% [5][13]. Core Insights - The optimization and continuation of the "Two New" policies are expected to activate greater consumer potential in the home appliance sector. The policies aim to stimulate demand through measures such as large-scale equipment updates and trade-in programs [8]. - The domestic sales driven by government subsidies are showing marginal slowdown, but the ongoing policies are anticipated to provide sustained demand stimulation in both product and service consumption [8]. - The report highlights that the impact of Mexico's proposed tariffs on Chinese home appliance companies is limited, as the revenue contribution from this market is relatively small [8]. - The market share of Miniled TVs is on the rise, with RGB-Miniled technology expected to lead the next generation of display technology upgrades, enhancing the competitive edge of Chinese brands in the global market [8]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - Domestic sales are expected to benefit from the "Two New" policy, with leading white goods companies likely to gain more from trade-in programs due to their higher efficiency and mature management processes [3]. - Key investment themes include: - Leading companies with higher operational efficiency and mature overseas production layouts, such as Midea Group, Haier Smart Home, and Hisense Visual, are recommended for stable allocation [3]. - The long-term focus on overseas expansion is emphasized, with Stone Technology highlighted as a potential beneficiary [3]. - Companies with stable core business performance and potential for a second growth curve, such as Anfu Technology, are also noted [3].

12月10日至11日，中央经济工作会议在北京举行。此次会议部署2026年经济工作，其中在部署明年"坚 持内需主导，建设强大国内市场"时称，要优化"两新"政策实施。 为了促进消费，中国在2024年发行了1500亿元超长期特别国债资金用于消费品以旧换新，也就是老百姓 口中的"国补"。由于当年实施效果不错，2025年中国发行3000亿元超长期特别国债资金用于消费品以旧 换新，"国补"额度较2024年增长一倍。 "国补"政策也在不断优化。2025年"国补"领域在2024年基础上扩围，比如新增了手机、平板、智能手表 手环等3类数码产品和微波炉、净水器、洗碗机、电饭煲等4类家电产品等。 所谓"两新"政策，是指大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新政策。其中与老百姓利益直接相关的消费品以 旧换新政策又备受关注，被称为"国补"。此次会议明确2026年优化"两新"政策实施，意味着明年会继续 实施国补政策，但具体政策会有所优化。 多位接受第一财经采访的专家表示，2026年"国补"额度可能在2025年基础上适度增加，并继续优化资金 投向领域，增加服务消费等，以进一步发挥财政资金带动消费，带动产业转型升级、提振经济。 商务部数据显示，今年1 ...

数据来源：聚源 -19% -10% 0% 10% 19% 29% 38% 2024-12 2025-04 2025-08 汽车 沪深300 汽车研究团队 邓健全（首席分析师） 证书编号：S0790525090003 赵悦媛（联席首席分析师） 证书编号：S0790525100003 赵旭杨（分析师） 证书编号：S0790523090002 傅昌鑫（分析师） 证书编号：S0790525090005 汽车 2025 年 12 月 14 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 相关研究报告 《鸿蒙智行尊界 S800 轿车 11 月交付 破 2000 台，宇树科技完成 IPO 辅导— 行业周报》-2025.12.7 《特斯拉 FSD V14.2.1 上线，长安汽车 拟 2.25 亿元参与设立机器人公司—行 业周报》-2025.11.30 《小鹏汽车第 100 万台整车下线，广 州车展车企竞逐具身智能新赛道—行 业周报》-2025.11.23 "两新"政策有望优化实施，客车行业出口加速 ——行业周报 | 邓健全（分析师） | 赵悦媛（分析师） | 傅昌鑫（分析师） | | --- | --- | --- | | deng ...

2025.12. 14 本文字数：1284，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 | 第一财经 陈益刊 明年国家将继续发行超长期特别国债支持消费品以旧换新，也就是老百姓口中的"国补"。 近日，财政部党组召开会议传达学习中央经济工作会议精神。会议提出，明年用好用足各类政府债券 资金，发行超长期特别国债，持续支持"两重"建设、"两新"工作。 所谓"两新"政策，是指大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新政策。其中与老百姓利益关联最为密切的 是消费品以旧换新政策。上述财政部会议明确了明年将继续发行超长期特别国债来持续支持"国 补"。所谓超长期特别国债，是指中央财政发行的20年及以上期限、用于特定领域的政府债券，这一 特定领域正是上述"两重"（国家重大战略实施和重点领域安全能力）建设、"两新"工作。 为了提振消费，中央财政首次在2024年发行了1500亿元超长期特别国债资金，对消费者汽车以旧换 新、购买相关家电给予财政补贴，也就是"国补"。由于这一政策有效激发消费活力，2025年中央财 政发行了3000亿元超长期特别国债资金来支持"国补"。 随着2025年即将结束，"国补"接近尾声，不少老百姓十分关心明年"国补"是否延续。而近日召开的 中 ...

此前多位接受第一财经采访的专家建议，在"国补"商品品类上，可以考虑赋予地方政府更多的权力，根 据当地消费实际扩大补贴范围。 随着2025年即将结束，"国补"接近尾声，不少老百姓十分关心明年"国补"是否延续。而近日召开的中央 经济工作会议明确要优化"两新"政策实施，释放了"国补"延续信号。此次财政部上述会议更是明确，明 年将继续发行超长期特别国债持续支持"国补"。 财政部上述会议还提出，支持优化"两新"政策实施，用好个人消费贷款和服务业经营主体贷款"双贴 息"政策，大力支持实施提振消费专项行动。这也意味着明年"国补"政策将继续优化。 目前"国补"针对的是商品消费，且商品范围不断拓宽。 比如根据官方文件，2024年"国补"对象主要有两类，一类是汽车报废更新，第二类是冰箱、洗衣机、电 视、空调、电脑、热水器、家用灶具、吸油烟机等8类家电产品。而2025年"国补"政策进一步优化，补 贴范围明显扩大，比如将微波炉、净水器、洗碗机、电饭煲等4类家电产品纳入补贴范围，并新增手 机、平板、智能手表手环等3类数码产品等。 财政部明年发行超长期特别国债来支持消费品以旧换新。 明年国家将继续发行超长期特别国债支持消费品以旧换新，也 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese economy is expected to grow around 5% this year, maintaining its position as the largest engine of global economic growth, despite facing various internal and external challenges [1][2]. Economic Performance - Major economic indicators have performed better than expected, with the economy projected to reach approximately 140 trillion yuan this year, following significant growth milestones in previous years [1]. - The fixed asset investment growth rate turned negative in September, with a further decline in October, influenced by factors such as the real estate market adjustment and increased domestic competition [3][4]. Policy Measures - The government plans to implement incremental policies in response to changing circumstances, aiming to synergize existing policies to promote economic stability and growth [1]. - Key tasks for next year include prioritizing domestic demand and building a strong domestic market, with a focus on enhancing consumption and investment [2][3]. Investment Opportunities - There is significant investment potential in urbanization, technological innovation, and infrastructure, with current per capita infrastructure capital only at 20-30% of that in developed countries [4]. - The government aims to increase central budget investment and implement major projects to stimulate fixed asset investment and private sector engagement [4][6]. Risk Management - Emphasis is placed on managing risks in key areas, including local government debt, with measures to prevent the accumulation of hidden debts and ensure financial stability [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that China's major economic indicators are expected to perform better than anticipated, with the economy projected to reach approximately 140 trillion yuan by 2025, and outlines plans for incremental policies to support economic stability and growth in the coming years [1][3][4]. Economic Performance - The year is highlighted as significant for China's modernization process, with expectations to achieve major social and economic development goals, including a projected economic growth rate of around 5% [3]. - China's economy has shown resilience and vitality, with stable employment and rapid growth in foreign trade, particularly in diversified exports [3]. - International organizations, including the IMF, have raised their economic growth forecasts for China for the next two years [3]. Policy Implementation - The government plans to maintain stable economic growth, employment, and price levels while promoting income growth alongside economic expansion [5]. - A more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy will continue, with an emphasis on the integration of existing and new policies to enhance economic stability [6]. Consumption and Investment - The article discusses the importance of domestic demand, with initiatives like the "old-for-new" consumption policy driving sales growth in related sectors [8]. - There is a focus on increasing investment in urbanization, technological innovation, and improving living standards, with plans to raise the scale of central budget investments [9]. Innovation and Entrepreneurship - The government aims to strengthen the role of leading venture capital institutions and technology enterprises, supporting innovation and the application of new technologies [11]. - A comprehensive plan for education and talent development in technology is to be established, alongside measures to protect intellectual property in emerging fields [11]. Market Regulation - The article mentions the need for a unified national market and the establishment of guidelines for local government investment promotion, aiming to create a fair competitive environment [13]. - There will be efforts to deepen reforms in state-owned enterprises and improve regulations to support the private economy [14]. Trade and Foreign Investment - The government plans to expand both exports and imports, promoting sustainable foreign trade development and enhancing the "Invest in China" brand [16][17]. - Continuous optimization of the business environment and reforms to encourage foreign investment are also highlighted [17]. Environmental Goals - The article outlines plans for a green transition, including measures to achieve carbon peak and promote new energy sources like hydrogen and green fuels [21]. Employment and Risk Management - Employment is emphasized as a key priority, with policies aimed at stabilizing job markets and addressing risks in the real estate sector [23]. - The government will focus on managing local government debt risks and preventing the emergence of hidden debts [23].

Group 1 - The core message emphasizes the need to address overdue corporate payments and prevent future occurrences, while promoting a unified national market and fair competition [1] - The government aims to optimize the implementation of the "two new" policies, granting local authorities more autonomy [1][2] - The focus is on enhancing consumer spending through initiatives like the "old-for-new" policy and increasing the supply of quality goods and services [2] Group 2 - The government plans to synchronize income growth with economic growth, maintaining stability in employment and prices [3] - There is a commitment to expand both exports and imports, fostering sustainable foreign trade development [4] - A proactive fiscal policy will be maintained, ensuring necessary fiscal deficits and debt levels while supporting domestic demand [5] Group 3 - The government has made progress in risk mitigation in key areas, including the orderly replacement of local government hidden debts and the completion of housing delivery tasks [7] - China's GDP is projected to reach approximately 140 trillion yuan this year, with major economic indicators performing better than expected [7][8] - The government emphasizes the importance of innovation and technology in driving industrial upgrades and creating new growth points [2][8] Group 4 - The government outlines five essential principles for economic work under new circumstances, focusing on maximizing economic potential, combining policy support with reform, and ensuring effective management [6][8] - There is a strong emphasis on investing in both physical and human capital to enhance overall development and well-being [8] - The government aims to strengthen its own economy to better respond to external challenges and enhance its competitive position globally [8]

Core Viewpoint - The "National Subsidy" policy has significantly boosted consumption, benefiting over 360 million consumers and generating over 2.5 trillion yuan in consumption from January to November 2025 [1]. Group 1: Policy Impact - The "National Subsidy" has led to substantial exchanges, including over 11.2 million old cars, 12.844 million old home appliances, and 9.015 million digital products [1]. - The official deadline for the 2025 "National Subsidy" is set for the end of this month, with no extensions or additional budgets available once the funds are exhausted [1][2]. Group 2: Future Expectations - The "National Subsidy" policy is expected to continue into 2026, with potential adjustments to its core rules [3][6]. - The funding for the "National Subsidy" increased from 150 billion yuan in 2024 to 300 billion yuan in 2025, with expectations for a slight increase or maintenance of this scale in 2026 [8][9]. Group 3: Changes in Subsidy Categories - The 2025 policy expanded to include three new digital product categories and four new home appliance categories, indicating a shift towards more diverse consumer goods [13]. - Future policies may focus more on service consumption, targeting areas such as cultural tourism, sports, and health care, while also emphasizing green and smart products [13][14]. Group 4: Regulatory Adjustments - Due to issues like scalping and fraudulent transactions in 2025, the 2026 "National Subsidy" may implement stricter eligibility criteria and smarter regulatory measures to ensure funds reach genuine consumers [16].