当地时间7月27日，美国商务部长卢特尼克在接受采访时表示，美国将不再延长8月1日的加征关税期限。 "所以没有延期，也没有宽限期。8 月 1 日，关税已经确定。它们将开始实施。海关将开始收钱，然后我们就开始了，"卢特尼克说。 他还发文表示 ，美国总统特朗普开启了世界最大经济体之一的大门，欧盟将开放其20万亿美元的市场，并首次完全接受美国的汽车和工业标准。 此外，欧盟还将从美国购买7500亿美元的能源产品，并在美国投资6000亿美元，美国对欧盟输美产品的关税将全部设定为15%。 有官员补充说，特朗普在截止日期后仍然准备进行关税谈判。 相较之下，15%委实算是非常不错的关税税率了，其他国家正饱受高税点摧残，尤其是巴西最惨，"喜提"全品50%（详参：全部产品！最高50%！特朗普 再加税！）。 在过去的几周里，美国与英国、日本、印度尼西亚、菲律宾等多个国家达成了贸易协议。特朗普从本月早些时候开始就一直在发送关税信函。他还计划对 较小国家征收 10-15%关税（详参：事关"输美商品关税"！特朗普最新表态！）。 然而，与印度的谈判仍在进行中。印度和美国谈判代表之间的第五轮谈判于本月结束。据消息人士透露，华盛顿代表团将于下个 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US economy remains resilient, and expectations for interest rate cuts have cooled. Geopolitical risks have decreased, and the probability of a rate cut in July has decreased, but there is still uncertainty in tariff negotiations. Wait for the outcome of this week's macro events. Although OPEC+ has completed its voluntary production cut exit plan ahead of schedule, the peak demand season still provides support for oil prices. However, once the increased production is implemented, it will impact the market. In the short term, focus on short - term trading within the WTI range of $60 - 70, and in the medium to long term, look for opportunities to sell high after the peak demand season [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. International Crude Oil Analysis 1.1 Crude Oil Price Trends - This week (July 21 - 25), international oil prices fluctuated. Geopolitical and demand factors remained relatively stable, and short - term oil prices oscillated around the shale oil cost support. However, the support from peak - season demand may gradually weaken. As of July 25, WTI and Brent settled at $65.16/barrel (-1.74%) and $68.44/barrel (-0.38%) respectively; INE SC settled at 508.6 yuan/barrel (+0.9%) [9]. 1.2 Financial Aspects - Against the backdrop of the extension of the tariff suspension, tariff negotiations between the US and other countries and favorable AI policies further boosted market sentiment, and US stocks continued to rise. As of July 25, the S&P 500 index reached 6388.64, continuing its rebound since mid - April, and the VIX volatility was 14.93, continuing to decline from a low level [13]. 1.3 Crude Oil Volatility and the US Dollar Index - Crude oil ETF volatility continued to decline this week, and the US dollar index fluctuated. As of July 25, the crude oil volatility ETF was 32.88, and the US dollar index was 97.67. Crude oil volatility declined as risks eased, while the US dollar index remained under pressure due to significant macro uncertainties [16]. 1.4 Crude Oil Fund Net Long Positions - WTI fund net long positions increased while speculative net long positions decreased. As of July 22, WTI managed fund net long positions decreased by 0.65 million contracts month - on - month to 9.82 million contracts, with a weekly increase of 7%; speculative net long positions decreased by 1.56 million contracts to 5.51 million contracts, a weekly decrease of 22%. Since July, peak - season demand has supported oil prices, which have remained around shale oil costs, and speculative long positions are mainly based on relative valuations for short - term operations [19]. 2. Crude Oil Supply - Side Analysis 2.1 OPEC and OPEC+ Production - OPEC crude oil production increased month - on - month in June, rising by 21.9 million barrels per day to 27.235 million barrels per day. Most countries except Iran and Libya have started to increase production. However, the production of eight OPEC+ countries that agreed to increase production was still 23,000 barrels per day below the plan in June, mainly because some countries were fulfilling their compensation production cut plans [24]. - According to the IEA's statistical method, the production of 9 OPEC member countries in June was 23.18 million barrels per day, an increase of 930,000 barrels per day month - on - month. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq, Kuwait, and Kazakhstan still had significant over - production, and the over - production margin increased compared to the previous month, possibly due to the gradual implementation of OPEC+'s increased production [28]. - Saudi Arabia's production continued to rise, increasing by 1.73 million barrels per day to 9.356 million barrels per day in June. Iran's production declined rapidly, decreasing by 620,000 barrels per day to 3.241 million barrels per day in June, affected by sanctions and the Israel - Iran war [31]. 2.2 Russian Crude Oil Supply - According to OPEC's statistical method, Russia's crude oil production in June was 9.025 million barrels per day, an increase of 410,000 barrels per day month - on - month; according to the IEA's statistics, it was 9.19 million barrels per day, an increase of 200,000 barrels per day month - on - month. Production is gradually recovering under the production increase plan but remains at a very low level [40]. 2.3 US Crude Oil Production - As of the week of July 25, the number of active oil rigs in the US was 415, a decrease of 7 from the previous week and a year - on - year decrease of 67. The efficiency improvement of drilling and wells allows producers to maintain record - high production while controlling capital expenditure. The number of rigs in the Permian Basin has decreased significantly, limiting the potential for increased crude oil production [45]. - As of the week of July 18, US crude oil production showed signs of peaking, dropping marginally to 13.273 million barrels per day, a decrease of 102,000 barrels per day from the previous week and a year - on - year decrease of 0.2%. Low oil prices in the first half of the year have dampened producers' enthusiasm, reducing the potential for increased US oil production in the second half of the year. However, due to improved drilling efficiency, production will not decline sharply [48]. 3. Crude Oil Demand - Side Analysis 3.1 US Oil Product Demand - As of the week of July 18, the total weekly demand for US refined oil products and the four - week average rebounded significantly. The average daily demand was 21.77 million barrels per day, an increase of 2.586 million barrels per day from the previous week and a year - on - year increase of 3.5% [52]. - As of the four - week period ending on July 18, the four - week average demand for US refined oil products decreased. Gasoline demand increased on a weekly basis, but the four - week average decreased by 180,000 barrels per day to 8.814 million barrels per day, a year - on - year decrease of 4.87%; distillate oil average demand decreased by 113,000 barrels per day to 3.619 million barrels per day, a year - on - year decrease of 1.04%; kerosene - type average consumption decreased by 60,000 barrels per day to 1.742 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 1.52% [57]. - The US gasoline crack spread and heating oil crack spread oscillated and declined this week. As of July 25, the gasoline crack spread was $22.91 per barrel, and the heating oil crack spread was $35.9 per barrel. The four - week average demand for gasoline and heating oil decreased, and crack spreads declined with the decrease in demand. Gasoline demand was weaker than in previous years, while heating oil demand was better than last year, leading to a divergence in crack spreads between different products [61]. 3.2 European Diesel and Heating Oil Crack Spreads - As of July 25, the ICE diesel crack spread was $29.14 per barrel, and the heating oil crack spread was $32.62 per barrel. European diesel, due to low inventory and peak - season restocking demand, performed better than heating oil. The overall oil market was in a relatively warm atmosphere, with crack spreads at a moderately high level. However, diesel inventory has increased for two consecutive weeks, cooling market sentiment and causing the crack spread to decline this week [65]. 3.3 China's Oil Products and Refinery Situation - China's crude oil demand is gradually entering the peak season. In June, China's crude oil processing volume increased by 3.927 million tons year - on - year to 62.245 million tons (+6.73%); imports increased by 3.438 million tons year - on - year to 49.888 million tons (+7.4%). In June, the escalation of the Middle East situation raised concerns about supply, leading to a surge in China's oil imports from the Gulf region. At the same time, the recovery of Russian oil supply was much higher than in previous years, and imports increased month - on - month and remained at a relatively high level [68]. 3.4 International Institutions' Forecasts of Demand Growth - Among international institutions, EIA and OPEC maintained their previous judgments, while IEA continued to lower its forecast for global oil demand growth. In June, EIA, IEA, and OPEC estimated that the global crude oil demand growth rate this year would be 800,000 barrels per day (-), 700,000 barrels per day (↓), and 1.3 million barrels per day (-) respectively. Next year, the growth rates will be 1.05 million barrels per day, 740,000 barrels per day, and 1.28 million barrels per day respectively. EIA stated that this year's global oil demand growth is mainly driven by non - OECD countries, especially India and China. IEA continuously lowered its forecast because it believes that emerging markets outside Europe and Asia have resilient oil demand, while oil demand in countries such as China, Japan, South Korea, and the US has decreased significantly due to trade frictions. It is expected that the year - on - year growth rate of global oil demand will continue in the second half of the year until 2026 when the global monetary and fiscal policies become more accommodative [73]. 4. Crude Oil Inventory - Side Analysis 4.1 US Crude Oil Inventory - US commercial crude oil inventory decreased. As of July 18, EIA commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 316,900 barrels from the previous week to 418.99 million barrels, a year - on - year decrease of 4.01%; SPR inventory decreased by 200,000 barrels to 402.5 million barrels; Cushing crude oil inventory increased by 455,000 barrels to 21.863 million barrels [74]. - As of the week of July 18, US crude oil net imports decreased by 740,000 barrels per day from the previous week to 2.121 million barrels per day. US refinery throughput increased by 87,000 barrels per day from the previous week to 16.936 million barrels per day, and the refinery utilization rate increased by 1.6% to 95.5% [78]. - The WTI month - spread maintained a backwardation structure, but the indicators began to weaken. As of July 25, the WTI M1 - M2 month - spread was $0.82 per barrel, and the M1 - M5 month - spread was $2.08 per barrel. As US refined oil demand gradually peaks, the support from the peak season for oil prices is weakening. With OPEC's accelerated production increase in the near term, the month - spread may continue to decline [82]. 4.2 Brent Month - Spread - The Brent month - spread also maintained a backwardation structure, but showed signs of weakening on a weekly basis. As of July 25, the Brent M1 - M2 month - spread was $0.78 per barrel, and the M1 - M5 month - spread was $2.01 per barrel [85]. 5. Crude Oil Supply - Demand Balance Difference 5.1 Global Oil Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - According to EIA's July forecast, this year's global oil supply is 104.61 million barrels per day, and demand is 103.54 million barrels per day, resulting in a daily surplus of 1.07 million barrels, which is an increase from the previous month's surplus. This is mainly because EIA believes that OPEC's production increase plan and production increases outside the group will continue to drive strong growth in global liquid fuel production [89]. 5.2 Term Structure - This week, US fundamental data showed that peak - season demand is starting to decline, and the term structure has continued to flatten compared to last week. Brent, due to strong diesel demand and good crack spreads, can support a stronger contango structure. Currently, international oil products can maintain a contango term structure, but as peak - season demand gradually weakens, if OPEC continues to accelerate production increase in the near term, the term structure may change [93].

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - There is no information provided about the report's investment rating for the industry. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the US-Japan tariff agreement and progress in EU-US trade negotiations, overseas risk aversion declined. In the domestic market, the news of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology eliminating old production capacity boosted market sentiment, which needed to be repaired later in the week. In terms of fundamentals, most recent capacity changes in the supply side were replacements, with a small amount of capacity resuming production in Guizhou, and the operating capacity increasing slightly by 10,000 tons compared to last week. Downstream, the aluminum processing weekly operating rate continued to decline slightly due to the triple pressures of weak demand in the off - season, high aluminum prices, and tariff uncertainties. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots increased by 12,000 tons to 510,000 tons, while the aluminum rod inventory decreased by 10,500 tons to 145,500 tons [2]. - This week, there is high uncertainty in the overseas Fed's interest - rate decision and the negotiation process of the expiration of US reciprocal tariffs, with high macro - elasticity. Fundamentally, the operating capacity in the supply side increased slightly. In the consumption side, due to the off - season and high aluminum prices, downstream purchasing slowed down. The social inventory of aluminum ingots increased slightly, but the aluminum rod inventory continued to decline, and the warehouse receipt inventory returned to around 60,000 tons after a short - term increase. Overall, the inventory increase was not very smooth. It is expected that the aluminum price will have a certain repair after last week's sentiment adjustment, and the relatively small supply - demand contradiction in the fundamentals will support the aluminum price, leading to some adjustments [2][7]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Transaction Data - The price of LME Aluminum 3 - month decreased from 2,638 yuan/ton on July 18th to 2,631 yuan/ton on July 25th, a drop of 7 yuan/ton. The SHFE Aluminum Continuous 3 increased from 20,375 dollars/ton to 20,660 dollars/ton, a rise of 285 dollars/ton. The Shanghai - London aluminum ratio increased from 7.7 to 7.9, an increase of 0.1. The LME spot premium increased from - 0.78 dollars/ton to 1.07 dollars/ton, an increase of 1.9 dollars/ton. The LME aluminum inventory increased from 430,700 tons to 450,825 tons, an increase of 20,125 tons. The SHFE aluminum warehouse receipt inventory decreased from 66,548 tons to 54,675 tons, a decrease of 11,873 tons. The spot average price increased from 20,554 yuan/ton to 20,838 yuan/ton, an increase of 284 yuan/ton. The spot premium decreased from 120 yuan/ton to 10 yuan/ton, a decrease of 110 yuan/ton. The South - storage spot average price increased from 20,538 yuan/ton to 20,814 yuan/ton, an increase of 276 yuan/ton. The Shanghai - Guangdong price difference increased from 16 yuan/ton to 24 yuan/ton, an increase of 8 yuan/ton. The aluminum ingot social inventory increased from 492,000 tons to 510,000 tons, an increase of 18,000 tons. The theoretical average cost of electrolytic aluminum increased from 16,669.43 yuan/ton to 16,760.91 yuan/ton, an increase of 91.5 yuan/ton. The weekly average profit of electrolytic aluminum increased from 3,884.57 yuan/ton to 4,077.09 yuan/ton, an increase of 192.5 yuan/ton [3]. 行情评述 - The weekly average price of the spot market was 20,838 yuan/ton, an increase of 284 yuan/ton compared to last week. The weekly average price of the South - storage spot was 20,814 yuan/ton, an increase of 276 yuan/ton compared to last week [4]. 宏观方面 - The US - Japan tariff negotiation reached an agreement. The "reciprocal tariff" rate imposed by the US on Japan will be reduced from 25% to 15%, and Japan will increase the import of US rice under the current "minimum access system". The EU and the US are moving towards an agreement that will set a 15% tariff rate for most products. The South Korea - US "2 + 2" economic and trade consultation scheduled for the 25th was cancelled due to the US side. The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in July dropped to 49.5, the lowest since December 2024, while the preliminary value of the service industry PMI was 55.2, and the preliminary value of the composite PMI was 54.6, both reaching the highest since December 2024. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week was 217,000, the lowest since mid - April, lower than the market expectation of 226,000 and the previous value of 221,000. EU member states voted to impose counter - tariffs on US products worth 93 billion euros. The European Central Bank kept its three key interest rates unchanged, pressing the "pause button" on interest - rate cuts for the first time after eight consecutive rate cuts since June last year. The preliminary value of the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI in July reached 49.8, the highest since July 2022, and the service industry PMI unexpectedly rose to 51.2, driving the composite PMI to 51, both higher than market expectations. The PMI data of Germany and France also rebounded [5][6]. 消费端 - According to SMM, the operating rate of the domestic downstream aluminum processing industry increased by 0.2 percentage points to 58.8% compared to the previous period. Currently, the downstream is in the off - season. The operating rate of the recycled alloy sector continued to decline, but due to the decline in the aluminum price center, there were differences among different sectors. The weekly operating rates of aluminum profiles and aluminum cables increased slightly, driving the marginal improvement of the industry's operating rate. It is expected that the weekly operating rate of the downstream aluminum processing industry will decline by 0.1 percentage points to 58.7% next week [6]. 库存方面 - According to SMM, on July 17th, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 492,000 tons, an increase of 26,000 tons compared to last Thursday, and the aluminum rod inventory was 156,000 tons, a decrease of 4,000 tons compared to the previous period [6]. 行情展望 - Similar to the core viewpoints, it emphasizes that after last week's sentiment adjustment, the aluminum price is expected to have a certain repair, and the relatively small supply - demand contradiction in the fundamentals will support the aluminum price, leading to some adjustments [7]. 行业要闻 - According to the General Administration of Customs, in June 2025, the domestic import volume of primary aluminum was about 192,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.8% and a year - on - year increase of 58.7%. From January to June, the cumulative domestic import volume of primary aluminum was about 1,249,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. In June 2025, the net import of domestic primary aluminum was 172,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.4% and a year - on - year increase of 51.3%. From January to June, the cumulative net import of domestic primary aluminum was about 1,163,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3%. According to SMM, a technical renovation project of an aluminum plant in Guangxi has started to gradually start up electrolytic cells. The first batch of 50,000 tons/year, a total of 84 electrolytic cells, is expected to be fully put into operation next month, and the remaining renovation capacity will be gradually started up within this year [8]. 相关图表 - The report includes various charts such as the price trend of LME Aluminum 3 - SHFE Aluminum Continuous 3, the Shanghai - London aluminum ratio, LME aluminum premium, Shanghai Aluminum current - month to continuous - one spread, seasonal spot premium of physical trade, domestic and imported alumina prices, electrolytic aluminum cost - profit, seasonal changes in electrolytic aluminum inventory, and seasonal changes in aluminum rod inventory [9][10][11][15].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lead price of the main SHFE contract fluctuated narrowly last week. Macroscopically, the tariff negotiation made progress, and the domestic anti - involution policy expectation was positive, leading to a good market risk preference. Fundamentally, the supply of lead concentrates and waste batteries did not improve much, and the processing fees of domestic and imported lead concentrates decreased in August, while the price of waste batteries increased slightly, providing strong cost support for the lead price. On the smelting side, the production of some smelters in Henan had not recovered, and the operating rate of electrolytic lead smelters decreased. The production of secondary lead smelters was stable, but the losses expanded after the lead price dropped. On the demand side, some countries in the Middle East imposed tariffs on China's lead - acid battery exports, and the US tariff on Vietnam also affected China's battery exports. The current consumption peak season did not improve significantly, and the downstream maintained a rigid - demand purchasing rhythm. Overall, the favorable macro - environment and cost support boosted the lead price, but stable smelter production, weakened battery export expectations, and under - expected peak - season consumption dragged down the lead price. In the short term, with multiple factors in play, the lead price is expected to remain volatile, waiting for new variables [3][6][7]. Group 3: Summary according to the Directory 1. Transaction Data | Contract | July 18th | July 25th | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Lead | 16820 | 16955 | 135 | Yuan/ton | | LME Lead | 2011.5 | 2020.5 | 9 | US dollars/ton | | SHFE - LME Ratio | 8.36 | 8.39 | 0.03 | | | SHFE Inventory | 62335 | 63254 | 919 | Tons | | LME Inventory | 268400 | 266275 | - 2125 | Tons | | Social Inventory | 6.9 | 7.14 | 0.24 | Ten thousand tons | | Spot Premium | - 195 | - 165 | 30 | Yuan/ton | [4] 2. Market Review - The main SHFE lead contract PB2509 fluctuated narrowly last week. Supported by the warm atmosphere in the domestic commodity market and suppressed by high inventories, the contract finally closed at 16955 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.65%. On Friday night, it rose first and then fell. Affected by the weak US dollar, LME lead continued to rebound, but was slightly adjusted in the second half of the week due to warehouse receipts and the US dollar's stabilization. It finally closed at 2020.5 US dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.45%. - In the spot market as of July 25th, the price of lead in Shanghai and Jiangsu - Zhejiang markets was reported at a discount to relevant contracts. The supply of ex - factory electrolytic lead was limited, and the price was at a premium, while the premium of some high - priced offers decreased. The price of secondary lead was reported at a premium of 0 - 50 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead price. - In terms of inventory, as of July 25th, the LME weekly inventory was 266275 tons, a weekly decrease of 2125 tons; the SHFE inventory was 63254 tons, an increase of 919 tons from the previous week. As of July 24th, the SMM five - region social inventory was 7.14 million tons, an increase of 100 tons from Monday and 0.24 million tons from last Thursday. [5][6] 3. Industry News - In August, the average domestic lead concentrate processing fee was 500 yuan/metal degree, a month - on - month decrease of 50 yuan/metal ton; the average imported ore processing fee was - 60 US dollars/dry ton, a month - on - month decrease of 15 US dollars/dry ton. - In June, lead ingot imports were 0.65 million tons, a decrease of 0.53 million tons from May, a month - on - month decrease of 44.97% and a year - on - year increase of 0.32%. Lead ingot exports were 0.42 million tons, a decrease of 0.23 million tons from May, a month - on - month decrease of 35.60% and a year - on - year increase of 142.54%. The export volume of lead - acid batteries in June was 18.7446 million units, a month - on - month decrease of 16.69% and a year - on - year decrease of 19.91%. [8] 4. Related Charts - The report provides 14 charts, including SHFE and LME lead prices, SHFE - LME ratio, inventory status, lead price premium and discount, price difference between primary and secondary lead, waste battery price, secondary lead enterprise profit, lead ore processing fee, electrolytic lead and secondary lead production, lead ingot social inventory, and refined lead import profit and loss. [10][12][13]

Market Overview - The A-share market is currently experiencing fluctuations around the 3600-point level, reflecting increased divergence between bulls and bears [2][16][17] - The market is likely to enter a period of consolidation, with the index expected to oscillate around 3600 points to digest accumulated pressure [17] - Short-term market sentiment is influenced by profit-taking and external disturbances, while medium-term trends remain upward due to policy support and industry upgrades [5][17] Sector Performance - The semiconductor and AI application sectors have shown strength, indicating a potential shift towards technology stocks, particularly among small and mid-cap growth stocks [1][16] - The "Yalu River Downstream Hydropower" concept stocks have experienced significant volatility, with a recent pullback after a period of strong performance [11] - The healthcare sector, particularly innovative drugs and medical devices, is expected to see continued growth due to favorable policy changes and an aging population [10] Investment Strategy - Short-term strategies should focus on avoiding high-flying stocks and selectively reducing positions in sectors that have seen substantial gains, such as the Yalu River hydropower concept [3][17] - Mid-term investments should target growth sectors with elastic potential, including AI infrastructure, innovative pharmaceuticals, and humanoid robotics, driven by both policy and technological advancements [3][17] - The cultural media sector is also highlighted as a potential area for investment, particularly in gaming and interactive content, benefiting from advancements in AI technology [9] Economic Indicators - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring tariff negotiations and the overall liquidity environment, which are expected to positively influence the A-share market [3][17] - The upcoming fiscal policy window in Q3 and the timing of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy shift are critical factors to watch for market direction [3][17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The US and the EU have reached a 15% tariff rate agreement. The EU will increase its investment in the US by $600 billion, purchase US military equipment, and buy $750 billion worth of US energy products. This will lead to a short - term decline in the US dollar index [15]. - The central bank conducted 789.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations. Market sentiment is expected to ease temporarily next week, but risk appetite will be strong in Q3, and there will still be fluctuations in the bond market [3]. - The 10 - department joint issuance of the plan to promote agricultural product consumption aims to boost agricultural product consumption through various measures. The decline in industrial enterprise profits in June has narrowed, and the new kinetic energy industry represented by the equipment industry has seen rapid profit growth [17][18]. - The export data of Malaysian palm oil is poor, and the domestic oil mill operating rate is expected to increase. Steel prices have risen significantly due to the continuous increase in coking coal and coke prices and the relatively strong fundamentals of finished products, but there is a risk of overvaluation [5]. - Polysilicon is expected to correct in the short term, and it is advisable to consider short - selling lightly through options [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US and the EU have reached a 15% tariff rate agreement. Trump has the right to restore higher tariff levels if other countries fail to fulfill their investment commitments. The EU hopes to continue discussions on steel and aluminum tariffs with the US. The applicable tariff will be the higher of the "most - favored - nation tariff" or 15%. The short - term market risk preference will moderately recover, and the US dollar index will decline in the short term [13][15]. - Investment advice: The US dollar index will decline in the short term [16]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - 10 departments jointly issued the "Implementation Plan for Promoting Agricultural Product Consumption" to promote agricultural product consumption through various measures. In June, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 4.3% year - on - year, and the decline has narrowed. The new kinetic energy industry represented by the equipment industry has seen rapid profit growth. The US and the EU have reached a 15% tariff agreement, which may set an example for upcoming China - US tariffs. A Politburo meeting will be held this week, and attention should be paid to its statements on the economic work in the second half of the year [17][18][19]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to allocate stock indexes evenly [20]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US and the EU have reached a 15% tariff agreement, but there are still differences in key industry tariffs. The US durable goods orders in June decreased by 9.3% month - on - month, better than the expected - 10.7%. The core data excluding Boeing orders performed well. The US - EU tariff negotiation has accelerated, and the risk of further deterioration of the tariff level has decreased, supporting market risk preference [21][22]. - Investment advice: The trade negotiation is moving in a positive direction, and it will still fluctuate strongly in the short term, but attention should be paid to the risk of correction [22]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 789.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 601.8 billion yuan. Market sentiment is expected to ease temporarily next week, and the funds are expected to become looser after the end of the month. However, risk appetite will be strong in Q3, and there will still be fluctuations in the bond market [23]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to cautiously bet on the opportunity of oversold rebound next week. Do not be bearish in the long term, but the market will be volatile in Q3, and it may be too early for allocation buyers to go long at present [24]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal price in the Linfen market is running strongly. The recent futures price increase is mainly due to macro - policies. The National Energy Administration plans to conduct a verification of coal mine production in key coal - producing provinces, but the actual impact of checking over - production may be limited. The price may return to the fundamentals. The supply of coking coal has recovered partially this week, and the coke price has increased for the third time, with some steel mills accepting the increase [25][26]. - Investment advice: The market sentiment for coking coal is still strong, but the risk is high as the price rises significantly. Pay attention to position management [27]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The actual soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills in the 30th week was 2.2389 million tons, with an operating rate of 62.94%. It is expected to reach 2.3726 million tons and 66.69% in the 31st week. From July 1 - 25, the export of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 9.23% month - on - month. The production of Malaysian palm oil in July is expected to increase, and the inventory will increase significantly. China may export 100,000 - 120,000 tons of soybean oil to India [28][29]. - Investment advice: The data from Malaysia is bearish for palm oil. It is not recommended to short unilaterally. Consider buying put options or waiting for opportunities to go long at low prices. For international soybean oil, focus on US weather and bio - fuel policies. For domestic soybean oil, if exports to India increase, it will support prices [30]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - The international sugar price has fluctuated greatly. The expected increase in production in Brazil and India and the rumor of India's export in the 2025/26 season have put pressure on the price. India's sugar export may be unfeasible at current international prices. The sugar mills of Guangxi Nanhua have cleared their warehouses, and the spot price in Guangxi has remained stable with a narrow - range shock. The sugarcane yield in the central - southern region of Brazil has decreased in June [31][33][34]. - Investment advice: The international sugar market is under pressure from supply. The Zhengzhou sugar futures are expected to fluctuate mainly. Pay attention to the resistance level of 5900 yuan [35]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - In the first half of 2025, China's cotton product exports increased under pressure. As of mid - July, the pre - sale progress of Brazilian cotton in 2025 was 65%. As of July 17, the weekly net signing of US cotton in the 25/26 season was 30,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 54%. The ICE cotton price is expected to be in a low - level shock pattern in the short term [36][37][39]. - Investment advice: The lack of news about increased import quotas in China, tight old - cotton inventory, and high operating rates in Xinjiang spinning mills will support cotton prices in the short term. However, the demand from inland spinning mills is weakening, and the increase in warehouse receipts and the expectation of increased production in the 25/26 season may limit the upward trend of cotton prices [40]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Argentina has lowered the export tariffs on soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil. The operating rate of domestic oil mills has remained high. China has stopped purchasing US soybeans since the end of May, and the pre - sale of US new - crop soybeans is significantly lower than the normal level in previous years [41][42]. - Investment advice: CBOT soybeans and soybean meal are expected to fluctuate. Focus on the development of the China - US trade war. Soybean meal inventory will continue to accumulate, and the spot basis will remain weak [42]. 3.2.6 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - Most coal mines in Ordos maintained normal production on July 23, and the coal price was stable with a slight increase. The implementation of the over - production policy and high summer temperatures are expected to keep the coal price strong. The power plant's inventory has decreased slightly, and the coal price is expected to return to around the long - term agreement price of 670 yuan [43][44]. - Investment advice: The coal price is expected to remain strong, and it is expected to return to around 670 yuan, the long - term agreement price [44]. 3.2.7 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - The iron ore production and sales of Mount Gibson in the second quarter decreased year - on - year. Affected by coking coal and coke, the iron ore price has fluctuated strongly, but it has encountered resistance after breaking through $105. The long - term increase in the price center of coking coal and coke will suppress the upside potential of iron ore [45]. - Investment advice: Observe the follow - up of the spot market after the price pull - back. The market sentiment fluctuates greatly, so it is recommended to reduce the position [46]. 3.2.8 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The fifth blast furnace of Vietnam's Hoa Phat Group's Dung Quat Steel Complex has been put into operation, increasing the annual production capacity by 5.6 million tons. The total new - signed contract value of the top seven construction central enterprises in the first six months exceeded 5.9 trillion yuan. South Korea will impose temporary anti - dumping duties on hot - rolled steel plates imported from China and Japan. Steel prices have risen significantly, but there is a risk of overvaluation [47][49][50]. - Investment advice: Steel prices will remain strong in the short term. It is recommended to observe cautiously [51]. 3.2.9 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The consumption of corn starch sugar is average, and the operating rate has decreased. The consumption of corn and corn starch has decreased this week [52]. - Investment advice: Starch enterprises may continue to face losses, and the operating rate is expected to remain low. This is not favorable for the rice - flour price difference [53][54]. 3.2.10 Agricultural Products (Corn) - In June 2025, the national industrial feed production was 27.67 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.6%. The proportion of corn in compound feed increased by 2.5 percentage points year - on - year. The "anti - involution" policy in the breeding industry may reduce the corn demand in the new year [55]. - Investment advice: The stalemate in the spot market may continue until the new corn is on the market. The 09 contract may weaken in advance. Hold the short positions of new - crop corn and look for opportunities to add positions on rebounds [55]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange has adjusted the trading limit for the LC2509 contract of lithium carbonate futures. The price of lithium carbonate has increased, and there are rumors about production cuts in some areas. The limit - trading measure is expected to stabilize the market [56][57]. - Investment advice: Before the production cuts are confirmed, there is no upward momentum for the price. Pay attention to the downstream procurement. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of holding inventory and reverse arbitrage [58]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - The EU has started monitoring the trade of scrap copper and aluminum. Teck Resources has lowered the production forecast of its Chilean copper mine. Freeport's Indonesian subsidiary has started its new smelter [59][60][61]. - Investment advice: Unilaterally, be cautious about the repeated macro - expectations. The copper price is expected to remain high and fluctuate. It is recommended to observe. For arbitrage, pay attention to the opportunity of domestic - foreign reverse arbitrage [62]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange has adjusted the trading limit, daily limit, margin, and handling fees for industrial silicon and polysilicon futures. The spot price of polysilicon has increased slightly, but the actual transaction has not changed much. The production of polysilicon is expected to increase in July and August, with a monthly surplus of 100,000 - 200,000 tons [63][64][65]. - Investment advice: The delivery price of polysilicon sets a lower limit for the futures price. However, due to the difficulty of the spot price to keep up with the futures price increase, the short - term price is expected to correct. Consider short - selling lightly through options and look for opportunities to go long after the correction [66]. 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The production and operating rate of industrial silicon in Xinjiang, the Northwest, Yunnan, and Sichuan have shown different trends. The social inventory has decreased, and the factory inventory has increased. The supply is expected to increase with the resumption of production, and the supply - demand gap will narrow in August [67][68][69]. - Investment advice: After the price increase, the basis of industrial silicon has weakened rapidly. Pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling at high prices or selling out - of - the - money call options [69]. 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Danantara is considering acquiring the GNI smelter in Indonesia. The nickel price has been strong recently but fell on Friday night. There are different statements about Indonesia's nickel export policy. The price of Philippine nickel ore has decreased, and the price of nickel iron has increased, but the steel mills' purchasing intention is not strong [70][71]. - Investment advice: The nickel price is closely related to macro - sentiment. It is recommended to use options for hedging in unilateral trading. Holders can sell for hedging at high prices [72]. 3.2.16 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - From January to June 2025, the number of electric bicycles recycled and replaced was 8.465 million each. The new national standard for electric bicycles will be implemented on September 1. The overseas macro - situation has limited fluctuations. The supply of primary lead is tight, and the production of secondary lead has increased slightly. The demand from end - users has not improved significantly, but the lead social inventory may turn around [73][74][75]. - Investment advice: In the short term, pay attention to the opportunity of buying at low prices and manage the position well. For arbitrage, it is recommended to observe temporarily [76]. 3.2.17 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The port inventory of zinc concentrate has decreased by 860,000 tons compared with last week. The 0 - 3 cash spread of LME zinc has turned negative, but the注销仓单 is still high. The zinc smelting profit may improve in August, and the supply is expected to remain high. The demand from primary processing industries is differentiated, and the social inventory has increased significantly [77][78]. - Investment advice: Unilaterally, the risk is high, and it is recommended to observe. For arbitrage, pay attention to the opportunity of medium - term calendar spread positive arbitrage. It is recommended to observe in terms of domestic - foreign trading [79]. 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - On July 25, the closing price of the EUA main contract was 71.34 euros/ton, a 0.65% increase from the previous day and a 2.07% increase from last week. The investment funds reduced their net long positions by 100,000 tons last week. The carbon price is expected to be volatile in the short term [80]. - Investment advice: The EU carbon price will be volatile in the short term [81]. 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The number of US oil rigs has decreased. The Middle - East oil price has strengthened relative to Brent. The increase in the Middle - East oil export volume is limited. The strong diesel crack spread and EU sanctions on Russia support the Middle - East oil price [82][83]. - Investment advice: The oil price will remain volatile. Pay attention to the OPEC+ meeting and market risk preference [84]. 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - On July 25, the price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong was slightly adjusted. The supply has increased, and the demand is average. The caustic soda futures price has increased due to the overall positive sentiment in the commodity market, but the increase is limited [85][86]. - Investment advice: The caustic soda valuation is not low, and the speculative demand is difficult to stimulate, resulting in a small increase [86]. 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The spot price of imported wood pulp is generally stable, with individual prices increasing slightly. The futures price has continued to rise, but the downstream paper mills' follow - up is not strong, and high - price transactions are difficult [87]. - Investment advice: Due to the "anti - involution" policy, low - valued pulp may be targeted by funds. Investors should pay attention to the risks [88]. 3.

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the new round of China-US tariff negotiations is expected to marginally reduce tariff impacts, with trade agreements likely to be established following the upcoming talks in July 2025 [1] - Recent orders for electric tools indicate stable sales growth, with significant contracts secured from major European and international retailers, amounting to at least $15 million and $30 million annually, respectively [1] - The company anticipates a return to normal growth levels due to reduced uncertainty from tariffs and plans to increase investments in overseas factories and new product development [1] Group 2 - Expectations of interest rate cuts are leading to a gradual recovery in downstream demand, which is likely to boost sales of the company's tool products [2] - Home Depot's inventory-to-sales ratio is improving, indicating a potential demand recovery, with the ratio rising to 61.7% in Q1 2025 from 52.7% in Q4 2024 [2] - The US housing market is showing signs of recovery, with existing home sales increasing to 4.13 million units in Q1 2025, up from 3.94 million in Q3 2024 [2] Group 3 - The recovery in the real estate market is expected to drive demand for tools and related products, with profit forecasts for the company indicating net profits of 2.708 billion, 3.409 billion, and 4.003 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [3] - The company maintains a "recommended" rating based on projected price-to-earnings ratios of 15x, 12x, and 10x for the respective years [3]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the negotiation between the EU and the US regarding tariffs, which resulted in a new agreement that includes a 15% tariff rate on EU goods and significant investments from the EU into the US [1][3][6] - The agreement stipulates that the EU will invest $600 billion in the US and purchase $750 billion worth of US energy products, while maintaining the current tariffs on steel and aluminum [3][6] - The EU's response to the US's demands indicates a shift in their negotiation strategy, as they have agreed to a deal that is perceived to be more stringent than previous agreements with Japan [4][6] Group 2 - The article highlights the potential implications of the EU-US agreement for international markets, suggesting it will bring stability to both regions [6] - It also notes that the US is preparing for further negotiations with China, indicating a strategic shift in focus after the EU agreement [8][9] - The article mentions that China has anticipated the EU's concession and is prepared for the US negotiations, leveraging its economic tools such as the sale of US Treasury bonds [9]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impending trade tensions between the United States and the European Union, highlighting the potential for increased tariffs and the urgency for both parties to reach a trade agreement before the August 1 deadline [1][2][4]. Group 1: Tariff Developments - The U.S. Secretary of Commerce, Wilbur Ross, announced that the U.S. will not extend the tariff deadline set for August 1 [2]. - The EU plans to impose tariffs on nearly €100 billion worth of U.S. goods if a satisfactory trade agreement is not reached by the deadline [1][2]. - The EU's initial response includes merging two lists of U.S. goods worth €210 billion and €720 billion for potential tariffs, which could take effect on August 7 [2][3]. Group 2: Trade Negotiations - EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is scheduled to meet with U.S. President Trump to discuss a trade agreement, with Trump suggesting a 50% chance of reaching a deal [1][4]. - The proposed agreement may involve a 15% baseline tariff on most EU goods, which is seen as better than the threatened 30% tariff [5]. - Over 70% of EU export goods are currently facing U.S. tariffs, with steel and aluminum at 50%, and automotive products at 25% [4]. Group 3: Economic Implications - The uncertainty surrounding the trade negotiations has led to a pause in interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank, which is concerned about the impact of U.S. tariffs on the Eurozone economy [6]. - The ECB's current economic outlook is described as "exceptionally uncertain," primarily due to the unclear future of U.S.-EU trade talks [6]. - Analysts suggest that the tariffs could trigger further rate cuts or impact the Eurozone's export structure, leading to inflationary pressures [6]. Group 4: Broader Trade Context - Since July 9, the U.S. has only finalized trade agreements with a few countries, including Japan, the Philippines, and Indonesia, while negotiations with the EU and others remain challenging [7][8]. - Trump indicated that most agreements would be finalized by August 1, with potential tariffs ranging from 10% to 50% on various countries [8].

Domestic Economic Insights - High-frequency data indicates a year-on-year improvement in export volumes, but a potential slowdown is expected if the RMB appreciates in the second half of the year[2] - Industrial enterprise profit growth in June shows a narrowing decline, highlighting the need for structural adjustments[2] - The issuance of special bonds has accelerated, reaching a peak in June and July, preparing for a potential rise in interest rates and RMB appreciation[6] Factors Supporting RMB Appreciation - Economic growth exceeded targets in the first half, with a focus on structural adjustments in the second half[2] - Anticipated meetings between European and American leaders with Chinese counterparts in Q3 may influence market dynamics[2] - The depreciation of the USD could lead to increased domestic prices, making Chinese assets more attractive to foreign investors[2] International Trade Developments - Several countries have reached trade negotiation agreements with the US, with tariffs not exceeding 20%, which is more sustainable compared to previous threats[6] - The progress in tariff negotiations has alleviated some pressure on the US, allowing for greater leverage over countries that have not yet reached agreements[6] - The third round of US-China negotiations in Sweden is likely to pave the way for a future meeting between the two nations' leaders[6] Monetary Market Trends - The liquidity environment experienced fluctuations, with a shift from tight to neutral conditions, influenced by significant demand for funds and central bank operations[21] - The average weekly rate for DR001 decreased by 2.556 basis points to 1.443%, while DR007 increased by 0.226 basis points to 1.535%[21] - The net issuance of government bonds is projected to decrease significantly next week, with a planned issuance of approximately 517.75 billion CNY[22]