Core Viewpoint - Barclays economists report that the 25% tariffs imposed by the U.S. on India are unlikely to prompt the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to cut interest rates [1] Group 1: Tariff Impact - The tariff rate and the threat of penalties may place India at a disadvantage [1] - India's tariff rates are higher than those of other regional countries, only slightly lower than the 26% rate announced in April [1] Group 2: Trade Negotiations - As trade negotiations between the two countries continue, India may secure lower tariffs from the U.S. [1] - Barclays suggests that the RBI's monetary policy committee should act cautiously and not overly worry about the potential impact of these tariffs on economic growth [1] Group 3: Monetary Policy Outlook - Barclays anticipates a "dovish pause" from the RBI in its upcoming meeting [1]

波黑塞族共和国广电网7月31日报道。波黑驻美大使馆收到美国贸易代表办公室（USTR）欧洲事务主 任 Ellen House 来信，确认将启动与波黑的关税谈判。（驻波黑使馆经商处） （原标题：美国贸易代表办公室确认将启动与波黑的关税谈判） ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent developments in US tariff negotiations, highlighting the complexities and ongoing challenges between the US and a major trading partner, referred to as "东大" (East Big) [1] Summary by Sections Tariff Rates - The US has established "reciprocal tariff" rates ranging from 10% to 41% for various countries, with Syria facing the highest rate of 41% and Brazil and the UK the lowest at 10% [1] - Most countries, including Japan, South Korea, and the EU, have a tariff rate set at 15%, while Vietnam's rate is 20% [1] First Negotiation - The first negotiation occurred in May, prompted by a significant rise in US Treasury yields following the announcement of reciprocal tariffs, which led to fears of a market crash [2][3] - The US Treasury yield for 10-year bonds surged from 3.99% to 4.6%, and 30-year yields exceeded 5%, increasing interest expenses by over $180 billion in a short period [2] Second Negotiation - The second negotiation in June focused on rare earth exports, resulting in the US pausing chip export controls to China while China relaxed restrictions on civilian rare earth exports [4] - This negotiation was crucial for the US, which relies heavily on rare earth materials from East Big [4] Ongoing Challenges - The US faces two significant vulnerabilities: the risk in the Treasury market and insufficient strategic resource reserves, particularly rare earths [5] - Both countries are reluctant to fully decouple but also unwilling to make significant concessions, leading to a prolonged negotiation process [6][7] Future Outlook - The next three months will involve both parties reassessing their negotiation strategies and preparing for potential economic impacts of a complete decoupling [7] - The US may consider interest rate cuts to alleviate Treasury market pressures, while East Big will focus on stimulating domestic demand [8] Economic Implications - The potential for US interest rate cuts could influence global asset prices, impacting non-dollar assets and safe-haven investments [8] - The article suggests that the outcome of these negotiations and economic strategies will shape the global capital market landscape in the coming months [9]

Group 1 - The euro to dollar exchange rate is currently stable at 1.1419 [1] - Norway's trade minister Cecilie Myrseth stated that tariff negotiations with the U.S. government are "not yet concluded" [1] - Norway has received a 15% tariff rate but continues to work with the U.S. government to reach an agreement [1]

Core Point - Malaysia's Trade Minister stated that no agreements were reached in tariff negotiations, nor was there a request made to supply rare earths exclusively to the United States [1] Group 1 - The trade negotiations did not result in any agreements [1] - There was no proposal for Malaysia to supply rare earths solely to the United States [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term trend of crude oil is expected to be oscillating and strengthening, and investors can focus on the hedging value of out - of - the - money call options [2]. - Precious metals may continue to experience oscillating adjustments, and attention should be paid to the US non - farm payrolls guidance [3]. - Copper short positions should be held as the import tariff on refined copper is excluded, reversing the physical import arbitrage expectation [4]. - Aluminum may continue to be under pressure and oscillate in the short term due to inventory accumulation and weak consumption [5]. - For various commodities, different trading strategies are recommended according to their specific supply - demand and market conditions, such as short - selling aluminum oxide, waiting for inventory verification for aluminum, etc. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Energy Commodities - **Crude Oil**: Overnight international oil prices declined. Although trade wars suppress market sentiment, there are still supporting factors from sanctions on oil. The short - term trend is expected to be oscillating and strengthening [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The cracking spreads of FU and LU are further declining due to weak fundamentals and the support of the crude oil market [22]. - **Asphalt**: In August, domestic production is expected to decline compared to July. Demand recovery is delayed, and inventory reduction is weak. The price trend follows crude oil [23]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: The overseas market is under pressure due to supply loosening. The domestic market is also under pressure, and the price is generally low [23]. - **Urea**: The futures price has fallen sharply. The agricultural demand is in the off - season, and the short - term market is expected to be weakly oscillating [24]. - **Methanol**: A coastal olefin plant is under maintenance, and the port is accumulating inventory seasonally. The domestic supply is sufficient, and attention should be paid to macro - policies [25]. Metal Commodities - **Copper**: The price has fallen below the MA60 moving average. Trump's tariff policy affects the import arbitrage expectation, and short positions should be held [4]. - **Aluminum**: The price is declining. The social inventory of aluminum ingots is accumulating, and the short - term trend is under pressure [5]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It has followed the decline of Shanghai aluminum. The short - term price is under pressure, but it has certain resilience in the medium term [6]. - **Alumina**: The industry profit has recovered, but the market is in an oversupply state. Short - selling is recommended near the recent high of 3500 yuan [7]. - **Zinc**: The macro - optimistic sentiment has faded. The supply - demand pattern is supply - increasing and demand - weakening. Short - selling on rebounds is the main strategy [8]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The price of nickel is oscillating. The upstream price support has weakened, and short - selling is recommended [10]. - **Tin**: The price has fallen below the MA60 moving average. High - position short positions should be held [11]. Chemical Commodities - **Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene**: The demand for propylene has increased slightly, but the market is lackluster. Polyolefin futures are in an interval - consolidation pattern [28]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC is weakening, and the short - term price is expected to be oscillating and weakening. Caustic soda is running weakly, and the long - term price is under pressure [29]. - **PX & PTA**: The prices of PX and PTA have fallen. The mid - term processing margin has a repair drive, but it needs the recovery of downstream demand [30]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price is declining. The domestic supply is increasing, and the overseas supply is stabilizing [31]. - **Short - Fiber & Bottle Chip**: The prices have followed the decline of raw materials. Short - fiber can be considered for long - position allocation in the medium term, while bottle chips have long - term over - capacity pressure [32]. Agricultural Commodities - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: The US soybean is under pressure due to good weather and high excellent - rate. The domestic soybean meal inventory is accumulating. The market is waiting for the result of trade negotiations [36]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: The prices of both are adjusting. A long - position allocation strategy at low prices is recommended, and attention should be paid to weather and policies [37]. - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The Canadian rapeseed price is expected to be in a consolidation state. The short - term strategy is to wait and see [38]. - **Corn**: The futures price is oscillating and weakening. The US corn is growing well, and the domestic market focuses on the supply in the circulation link [40]. - **Cotton**: The price is declining. The downstream demand is weak, and the new - season production in Xinjiang is expected to increase. The operation strategy is to wait and see or conduct intraday trading [43]. - **Sugar**: The US sugar trend is downward, and the Zhengzhou sugar lacks positive factors. The short - term price is expected to be oscillating [44]. - **Apple**: The price is oscillating. The market focuses on the new - season production estimate, and the operation strategy is to wait and see [45]. - **Wood**: The supply - demand situation has improved, and the futures price is expected to rise. A long - position strategy is recommended [46]. - **Paper Pulp**: The price is falling. The supply is relatively loose, and the demand is weak. The price may return to low - level oscillation [47]. Others - **Stock Index**: The stock market declined, and the mid - term market is expected to be relatively positive. Allocation to technology - growth sectors and low - level consumer sectors can be considered [48]. - **Treasury Bond**: The futures price of treasury bonds has strengthened. The yield curve is expected to steepen in the short term [49].

Key Points of the Research Report 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The short - term fundamentals of coking coal and coke are strong, and it is expected to maintain a volatile trend after a correction [2]. - Silver is expected to be in a high - level volatile and slightly bearish situation due to the weakening of short - term interest rate cut expectations [2]. - The 09 contract of soda ash is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [4]. - Crude oil should be treated with a volatile and bullish view [5]. - Methanol's 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [6]. - The rebar futures price is expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [7]. - Iron ore is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short term [7]. - Gold remains volatile and bearish [8]. - The bond market is affected by the stock - bond seesaw effect, and the logic of the bond market itself is unclear [8][9]. - Rapeseed meal is expected to be volatile and bearish in the short term [9]. - Palm oil is expected to be volatile and bearish in the short term [10]. - Short - term pig prices have adjusted, and short - term long positions can be considered; farmers can choose to sell for hedging according to the slaughter rhythm [12]. - It is advisable to wait and see for PTA [12]. - Rubber is relatively weak in the short term, and it is recommended to realize profits on short positions on dips [13]. - The L09 contract of LLDPE is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [14]. 3. Summary by Variety Coking Coal - The price of low - sulfur main coking coal in Linfen Anze increased by 50 yuan/ton to 1500 yuan/ton. The inventory of 523 sample mines decreased by 30.2 tons week - on - week to 248.3 tons. After the fourth round of price increases for coke was implemented, the fifth round started. The market speculation sentiment cooled, and coking coal hit the daily limit down. The short - term fundamentals are strong, and it is expected to maintain a volatile trend after a correction, with a support level of 980 yuan/ton [2]. Silver - The core PCE price index in the US in June increased by 2.8% year - on - year, higher than the expected 2.7%. The actual consumer spending increased by only 0.1% month - on - month. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week increased by 1000 to 218,000, lower than the market expectation. The short - term interest rate cut expectations weakened, which is bearish for silver. It is expected to be in a high - level volatile and slightly bearish situation [2]. Soda Ash - The national mainstream price of heavy - quality soda ash is 1366 yuan/ton, and the price is temporarily stable. The weekly output decreased by 3.32% week - on - week to 69.98 tons, and the total inventory of manufacturers decreased by 3.69% week - on - week to 179.58 tons. The float glass start - up rate is 75%, down 0.1% week - on - week. The market is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with a resistance level of 1285 for the 09 contract. It is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [4]. Crude Oil - The US Treasury imposed sanctions on a large number of individuals, entities, and vessels related to a shipping network. Russia and Saudi Arabia discussed the oil market situation. The US crude oil production in May increased by 24,000 barrels per day, breaking the previous record. The market is concerned about the possible significant production increase by OPEC+ in September, and the international oil price corrected. The overall situation is volatile and bullish [5]. Methanol - The market price in Jiangsu Taicang decreased by 15 yuan/ton to 2395 yuan/ton. The port inventory increased by 8.26 tons week - on - week to 80.84 tons, and the production enterprise inventory decreased by 1.53 tons week - on - week to 32.45 tons. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with a resistance level of 2425. It is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [6]. Rebar - As of July 31, the weekly output decreased by 0.42% to 211.06 tons, the factory inventory decreased by 2.12% to 162.15 tons, the social inventory increased by 2.99% to 384.14 tons, and the apparent demand decreased by 6.08% to 203.41 tons. Affected by bad weather, the terminal demand is low, and it is expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [7]. Iron Ore - From July 21 to July 27, the global iron ore shipment volume increased by 91.8 tons week - on - week to 3200.9 tons. The shipment volume from Australia and Brazil increased by 203.9 tons week - on - week to 2755.9 tons. Affected by the policy expectations and market sentiment, the current fundamentals are neutral to strong, and it is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short term, with a support level of 750 yuan/ton [7]. Gold - The US will resume collecting "reciprocal tariffs" on August 1. The tariff negotiations are ongoing, but the market risk - aversion sentiment is weak. Gold remains volatile and bearish, and attention should be paid to the US dollar trend [8]. Long - and Medium - Term Treasury Bonds - China's official manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3, down 0.4 percentage points month - on - month. The economic sentiment declined, and counter - cyclical adjustment needs to be increased. The stock market's short - term upward momentum weakened, and the stock - bond seesaw effect is favorable for the bond market. The bond market's own logic is unclear [8]. Short - Term Treasury Bonds - On July 31, most money market interest rates rose. The increase in money market interest rates is bearish for short - term bonds. The short - term upward momentum of the stock market weakened, which may be favorable for the bond market. The stock - bond seesaw effect is the main logic of the bond market [9]. Rapeseed Meal - As of July 27, the Canadian rapeseed export volume decreased by 72.78% week - on - week to 5.51 tons. The domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal inventories are relatively low, but the demand is weak, and the granular rapeseed meal inventory is high. It is expected to be volatile and bearish in the short term [9]. Palm Oil - In July 2025, the Malaysian palm oil export volume decreased. The domestic palm oil inventory is sufficient, the downstream demand is weak, and the price is expected to be volatile and bearish in the short term [10]. Pig - On July 31, the national average pork price decreased by 1.1% to 20.45 yuan/kg. At the end of the month, the slaughter of farmers decreased, and the price - support intention increased. The short - term price adjustment is in place, and short - term long positions can be considered. Farmers can choose to sell for hedging according to the slaughter rhythm [12]. PTA - The polyester market inventory is concentrated in 16 - 26 days. The PTA supply is expected to be loose, and the downstream polyester load may continue to decline with limited space. The PX spot tension has eased, and the PX futures price is expected to be volatile and bearish. It is advisable to wait and see for PTA [12]. Rubber - The Thai raw material prices continued to fall. The Hainan raw material output increased seasonally. The annual natural rubber supply and demand are expected to be tight, but the short - term supply may increase, and the demand is not strong. The short - term situation is relatively weak [13]. LLDPE - The mainstream price in North China decreased by 7 yuan/ton to 7363 yuan/ton. The weekly output decreased by 1.08% week - on - week to 27.25 tons, and the production enterprise inventory decreased by 17.44% week - on - week to 14.25 tons. The L09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with a resistance level of 7385. It is recommended to wait and see [14].

Group 1 - The U.S. President Trump is set to sign an executive order on July 31, imposing higher tariff rates on several countries that fail to reach a trade agreement by the August 1 deadline, potentially affecting major trade partners like Canada and Mexico [1] - Since April 2, when Trump announced a 10% base tariff on all imports and exports, along with additional "country-specific reciprocal tariffs" of up to 50% based on trade deficits, the ongoing negotiations and their impacts on ordinary Americans, Chinese foreign trade enterprises, and the global economy have been closely monitored [2] - The 90-day tariff suspension period is nearing its end, raising questions about the outcomes of global tariff negotiations and the potential effects on countries that have not reached agreements [2] Group 2 - In a related development, Meta has reported a satisfactory earnings report while also announcing the establishment of a "Super Intelligence Lab," which has sparked controversy due to its ambitious vision and radical approach [3]

Group 1 - Trump criticized India as a "stagnant economy" and announced a 25% tariff on Indian goods starting August 1, which he claims is due to India's high tariffs and lack of business with the U.S. [1] - The Indian government responded by stating that any trade agreement with the U.S. must be "mutually beneficial" and protect local farmers and small businesses [1][2] - The implementation of the 25% tariff could directly impact India's $10 billion export trade to the U.S., affecting key sectors such as textiles, pharmaceuticals, and IT services [2] Group 2 - The recent strong statements from Trump contrast sharply with the previously cooperative atmosphere, as seen in April when U.S. Vice President JD Vance referred to U.S.-India relations as a "win-win partnership" [2] - Analysts warn that the current situation may lead to a more cautious approach from India in its dealings with the U.S., although they do not foresee a complete breakdown in relations [2] - The tariffs are expected to weaken India's relative tariff advantage in labor-intensive exports, but the overall disadvantage may not be overly severe [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses President Trump's decision to impose a 25% tariff on goods from India, along with an undisclosed penalty, signaling a shift in U.S.-India trade relations and highlighting the complexities of their negotiations [4][9]. Trade Relations - Trump announced that starting August 1, the U.S. will impose a 25% tariff on Indian goods, which surpasses tariffs on other countries like Vietnam (20%) and Indonesia (19%) [4][6]. - The U.S. has a significant trade deficit with India, with a reported $457 billion, which Trump emphasized in his statements [4][6]. Negotiation Challenges - Key obstacles in U.S.-India trade negotiations include agricultural market access and India's digital tax on U.S. tech companies, which has led to tensions [7][10]. - India's previous proposals to increase bilateral trade to $500 billion by 2030 have not materialized, indicating a failure in negotiations [6][10]. Geopolitical Implications - The imposition of tariffs is seen as a tool for the U.S. to challenge India's trade and diplomatic autonomy, particularly due to India's reliance on Russian military equipment and energy [9][11]. - Trump's actions suggest a shift in U.S. foreign policy, prioritizing "America First" over traditional alliances, which may diminish India's strategic position [16]. Political Context - India's Prime Minister Modi faces political pressure domestically, making it difficult for him to concede to U.S. demands without risking his support base [15][16]. - The upcoming 2024 elections in India add to the complexity, as Modi's party has lost its parliamentary majority, limiting his negotiating power [15][16].