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原油周报:宏观地缘局势复杂,供需维持近强远弱-20250916
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-09-16 01:36
Report Title - Crude Oil Weekly Report: Complex Macroeconomic and Geopolitical Situations, Supply and Demand Maintaining Near-Term Strength and Long-Term Weakness [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned Core Viewpoints - Last week, oil prices rebounded and then declined. OPEC+ announced a new round of 1.65 million barrels per day production increase plan on September 7. After the previous digestion of the production increase negative, oil prices started a strong rebound on Monday. Since June, the implementation of OPEC+ production increases has become the starting point for oil price rebounds. Geopolitical conflicts remained intense during the week, and Europe and the United States planned to strengthen sanctions on relevant enterprises involved in Russian oil trade, with geopolitical premiums supporting the near-term pattern. The US CPI was strong during the week, while employment data was weak. The Fed is expected to cut interest rates in September. Near-term economic weakness and persistent long-term inflation affect market sentiment. Oil prices are still trading on short-term demand prospects and declined towards the weekend. With the expectation of continuous growth in the supply side, the long-term surplus pattern is difficult to disprove. The main driving force for oil price increases comes from geopolitical disturbances. The market still has short-term differences. The intensification of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and strong replenishment in China support near-term prices. There are resistances to both oil price increases and decreases. Attention should be paid to the market sentiment trend after the Fed's interest rate cut is implemented next week. The Brent operating range is expected to be between $62 and $68 per barrel [5]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies Comprehensive Analysis - Last week, oil prices rebounded and then declined. OPEC+ announced a new production increase plan. Geopolitical conflicts and sanctions supported the near-term pattern. The US CPI was strong, employment data was weak, and the Fed is expected to cut interest rates. The long-term surplus pattern is difficult to disprove, and oil price increases are mainly driven by geopolitical disturbances. The market has short-term differences, and attention should be paid to the market sentiment after the Fed's interest rate cut. The Brent operating range is expected to be between $62 and $68 per barrel [5]. Strategies - Unilateral: Wide - range oscillation. - Arbitrage: Domestic gasoline cracking is weak, and diesel cracking is weak. - Options: Wait and see (views are for reference only and not for trading basis) [6][7] Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis Macroeconomy - The US CPI increased in August, and employment data was weak, leading to an increase in interest rate cut expectations. The 8 - month CPI rose 0.4% month - on - month and 2.9% year - on - year, both the largest increases since January. The initial jobless claims reached the highest level since October 2021. The 10 - year US Treasury yield rebounded, and the US dollar index continued to weaken [10][12]. Supply - OPEC may continue to increase production, strengthening supply - side pressure. In August, OPEC's production increased by 509,000 barrels per day, with Saudi Arabia leading the increase. Russia's oil exports increased, but refined oil exports decreased significantly. The number of active US rigs increased slightly, and weekly production increased [13][14][17]. Inventory - Shore tank inventories remained at a high level, while floating storage was at a low level. In 2024, global crude oil inventories decreased by 71.09 million barrels year - on - year, with a daily destocking of 195,000 barrels [21][24]. Balance - The IEA slightly raised the global oil demand growth forecast for 2025 but still pointed to a significant long - term surplus. In 2025, the surplus will be close to 2 million barrels per day in the third quarter, and more than 4 million barrels per day in the first half of 2026 [25][27]. Spot Market - The Middle East spot market was strong, while the North Sea market was weak. The Dubai swap first - to - third spread remained above $3 per barrel, while the DFL in the North Sea fell below $0.5 per barrel [28][29][31]. Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking Crude Oil Price and Calendar Spread - Data on the first - line prices and calendar spreads of Brent, WTI, and Dubai were presented [34][35]. Crude Oil Spot - Europe & West Africa - Data on the price premiums of Forties, Brent, Bonnylight, Girassol, etc. were presented [37][38]. Crude Oil Spot - Middle East & Mediterranean - Data on the price premiums of Oman, Urals, etc. were presented [41][42]. Crude Oil Spot - North America - Data on the price differentials of LLS - Mars, WCS - Midland, etc. were presented [46][47]. US Crude Oil Weekly Supply and Demand - Data on US crude oil production, feedstock intake, imports, and exports were presented [49][50]. EIA Weekly Data - Refinery Operations - Data on US refinery operating rates in different regions were presented [52][53]. EIA Weekly Data - Gasoline - Data on US gasoline production, net imports, inventories, and demand were presented [56][57]. EIA Weekly Data - Distillates - Data on US distillate production, net imports, inventories, and demand were presented [59][60]. EIA Weekly Data - Jet Fuel - Data on US jet fuel production, net imports, inventories, and demand were presented [62][63]. US Crude Oil Weekly Inventory - Data on US commercial crude oil inventories, Cushing inventories, and strategic inventories were presented [65][66][68]. Crude Oil Floating Storage - Data on global, Asian, European, and West African crude oil floating storage were presented [70][71][72]. Global Floating Crude Oil and In - Transit Crude Oil - Data on global floating crude oil and in - transit crude oil were presented [76][77][78]. European Refined Oil Inventories - Data on ARA gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, naphtha, and fuel oil inventories were presented [81][82][86]. Singapore & Middle East Refined Oil Inventories - Data on heavy, medium, and light inventories in Fujairah and Singapore were presented [87][88]. Tanker Freight - Heavy Oil - Data on the freight rates of Dirty - VLCC on different routes were presented [90][91]. Cracking and Profits - Northwest Europe - Diesel cracking declined from high levels, gasoline cracking remained stable, and other components were generally stable [94][95]. Cracking and Profits - Asia - Pacific - Diesel cracking declined from high levels, gasoline cracking was stable, naphtha cracking was strong, and high - sulfur and propane cracking weakened [101][102]. Cracking and Profits - North America - Diesel cracking declined from high levels, and other components' cracking was generally stable [108][109]. Cracking and Profits - China - Oil prices fluctuated, domestic refined oil cracking spreads had narrow - range fluctuations, gasoline cracking was at a high level compared to the same period in previous years, diesel cracking declined, and gasoline and diesel export profits continued to rise [115]. Oil Price vs. Position - Data on the relationship between Brent, WTI prices and positions, as well as the positions of Gasoil, RBOB, and HO were presented [122][124][125].
能化:地缘扰动原油反弹,多数能化日内再震荡
Tian Fu Qi Huo· 2025-09-15 13:20
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy and chemical sector is influenced by geopolitical factors and fundamental supply - demand situations. Most products in the sector are recommended to hold short - positions, mainly due to the high probability of supply - demand surplus in the second half of the year, especially for crude oil. Short - term geopolitical disturbances should not be over - emphasized, and investment decisions should be based on the mid - term fundamental situation [1][2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs (1) Crude Oil - **Logic**: After a significant decline last week, a rebound on Friday night was related to geopolitical events. However, considering OPEC+ production increases and weakening US demand, the probability of supply - demand surplus in the second half of the year is high. The mid - term bearish view based on the fundamental surplus situation should be maintained [2] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a mid - term decline structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term oscillation structure. The upper limit of the oscillation range is around 491. There is an opportunity to short at high prices near the upper limit of the range, with a stop - loss reference of 491 [2] - **Strategy**: Hold short - positions at the hourly level, and try short - selling at the upper limit of the range at the end of the day, with a stop - loss of 491 [2] (2) Benzene Ethylene (EB) - **Logic**: The weekly fundamentals of benzene ethylene have not improved significantly. High profits, high production, and high inventory situations persist, and new device launches in September - October will increase supply pressure. The downward drive of fundamentals remains [4] - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a short - term decline structure. The rebound today did not exceed the short - term pressure of 7105, and the decline path remains unchanged [7] - **Strategy**: Hold the remaining short - positions at the hourly cycle, with a final stop - profit reference of 7105 [7] (3) Rubber - **Logic**: Overseas raw material prices have declined, weakening cost support. Although inventory is decreasing, the year - on - year high inventory pressure still exists. The fundamentals are currently neutral [9] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a mid - term oscillation structure, and the hourly - level is facing a decline structure. After a rebound today, pay attention to the opportunity to short if it fails to break through the hourly - level pressure of 16050 at night [9] - **Strategy**: Stop - loss the 15 - minute short - positions, and then pay attention to short - selling opportunities if it fails to break through the hourly - level pressure [9] (4) Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Logic**: The supply - demand of synthetic rubber itself has no major contradictions. The main concern is the cost side, especially butadiene. With the arrival of ship cargoes and future capacity expansion, the cost side is bearish [12] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a mid - term oscillation/decline structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term decline structure. The rebound today did not exceed the short - term pressure of 11760, and there is potential for further decline [15] - **Strategy**: Hold short - positions at the hourly cycle, with a stop - profit reference of 11760 [15] (5) PX - **Logic**: PX profits have recovered, and the operating rate has increased. The demand recovery is slower than expected. The main factor to watch is the cost - side drive from crude oil [18] - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level short - term decline structure is being tested. Pay attention to the 15 - minute upper limit pressure of 6770 [20] - **Strategy**: Hold the remaining short - positions at the hourly cycle [20] (6) PTA - **Logic**: PTA supply has increased, and demand is stable. The terminal operating rate in the peak season is weaker than expected. The main factor to watch is the cost - side drive from crude oil [22] - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a short - term decline structure. The upper short - term pressure is 4700 [22] - **Strategy**: Hold short - positions at the hourly cycle, with a stop - profit reference of 4700 [22] (7) PP - **Logic**: Demand has improved slightly in the peak season, but supply pressure has increased due to new capacity launches. Pay attention to the cost - side collapse logic [25] - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a short - term decline structure. The upper short - term pressure is 6985 [26] - **Strategy**: Hold short - positions at the hourly cycle [26] (8) Methanol - **Logic**: High operating rates and high imports have led to high inventory pressure. Although downstream MTO profits have improved, the bearish fundamental pattern remains [30] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a mid - term decline/oscillation structure, and the short - term is in a decline structure. The rebound today did not exceed the short - term pressure of 2435 [30] - **Strategy**: Hold the remaining short - positions at the hourly cycle cautiously, with a final stop - profit reference of 2435 [30] (9) PVC - **Logic**: High production and high inventory patterns persist due to high caustic soda profits and weak downstream demand [31] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a mid - term rise structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term decline structure. The upper short - term pressure is 4930 [33] - **Strategy**: Hold short - positions at the hourly cycle [33] (10) EG - **Logic**: Current supply - demand contradictions are not significant, but supply pressure may increase in the future. Pay attention to the impact of new capacity launches [34] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a mid - term oscillation/decline structure, and the hourly - level is in a decline structure. The short - term pressure is 4335 [34] - **Strategy**: Hold short - positions at the hourly cycle, with a stop - profit reference of 4335 [34] (11) Plastic - **Logic**: New capacity has increased supply pressure, and demand recovery in the peak season is limited. Further decline requires the cost - side crude oil to continue to weaken [36] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a mid - term oscillation/decline structure, and the hourly - level is in a decline structure. The upper short - term pressure is 7270 [36] - **Strategy**: Hold short - positions at the hourly cycle, with a stop - loss reference of 7270 [36] (12) Soda Ash - **Logic**: Supply is continuously increasing, and the high - production and high - inventory pattern remains. Although the previous over - valuation has been corrected, there is no upward drive in the short term [39] - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a decline structure. The rebound today did not exceed the pressure, and the decline structure remains unchanged. The upper short - term pressure is 1320 [39] - **Strategy**: Hold short - positions at the hourly cycle [39] (13) Caustic Soda - **Logic**: Supply is abundant, but demand has improved, and inventory pressure has been relieved. Mid - term attention should be paid to the impact of device maintenance and peak - season demand [43] - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a decline structure. The daily oscillation did not change the decline structure. The upper short - term pressure is 2625 [43] - **Strategy**: Hold short - positions at the hourly cycle, with a stop - profit reference of 2625 [43]
俄罗斯“大秀肌肉”对峙北约,美官员突访白俄军演现场
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-09-15 12:17
Group 1 - Russia successfully tested the Tsirkon hypersonic cruise missile in the Barents Sea and conducted joint military exercises with Belarus, named "Zapad-2025," aimed at enhancing military command and coordination capabilities in case of an attack [1] - The Tsirkon missile can strike targets within 1,000 kilometers and has a speed of 9 Mach (approximately 11,000 km/h), with a warhead weight of 300-400 kg [1] - NATO initiated "Eastern Sentry" operations following Russian drone incursions into Polish airspace, with NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg warning that Russian actions are escalating regional tensions [1] Group 2 - The Su-34 fighter-bomber, equipped with 12 hardpoints and capable of carrying 8 tons of munitions, was used for ground attack tasks during the exercises, emphasizing its low-altitude penetration capabilities [2] - The U.S. Department of Defense officials were allowed to observe the Belarus military exercises, marking the first time NATO member countries were invited to such events [2] - Recent U.S. diplomatic actions towards Belarus, including the release of prisoners in exchange for the lifting of sanctions on the Belarusian airline Belavia, indicate a shift in U.S. policy towards the region [2] Group 3 - Analysts suggest that the joint military exercises between Russia and Belarus aim to strengthen military alliances, while the U.S. seeks to circumvent sanctions against Russia through Belarus [3] - The deployment of hypersonic weapons by Russia serves as a deterrent against NATO's conventional military advantages, while the U.S. may be looking to create conditions for negotiations regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict [3] - Recent personal diplomacy from the Trump administration towards Belarus contrasts sharply with the Biden administration's tougher stance, indicating potential shifts in U.S. strategy towards Russia [3]
原油成品油早报-20250915
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-15 12:06
原油成品油早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/09/15 | 日期 | WTI | BRENT | DUBAI | diff FOB dated bre | BRENT 1- | WTI-BREN | DUBAI-B | NYMEX RB | RBOB-BR | NYMEX | HO-BRT | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 2月差 | T | RT(EFS | OB | T | HO | | | | | | | nt | | | | | | | | | 2025/09/08 | 62.26 | 66.02 | 69.03 | - | 0.35 | -3.76 | 0.47 | 195.86 | 16.24 | 231.19 | 31.08 | | 2025/09/09 | 62.63 | 66.39 | 69.50 | - | 0.28 | -3.76 | 0.34 | 199.25 | 17.30 | 231.99 | 31.05 | | 2025/09/10 | 6 ...
国投期货综合晨报-20250915
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-09-15 08:28
Oil Industry - International oil prices rebounded last week, with Brent 11 contract rising by 1.84% while SC10 contract fell by 1.39%. The market remains influenced by geopolitical tensions and mid-term oversupply pressures [2] Precious Metals - The market has fully priced in the expectation of three consecutive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, leading to a strong performance in precious metals, although volatility has increased [3] Copper - Copper prices saw a pullback after a spike, with high overseas inventory levels affecting market sentiment. Domestic production capacity is stabilizing, and attention is on current copper prices and premiums [4] Aluminum - Shanghai aluminum prices followed the overall strength in non-ferrous metals, breaking through the 21,000 yuan mark. Seasonal demand recovery is expected, with aluminum ingot inventory likely remaining low [5] Alumina - Alumina production capacity exceeds 96 million tons, with rising industry inventory levels. The market is experiencing significant oversupply, leading to price declines [6] Zinc - LME zinc inventory is low, and external supply is tight. The market is experiencing a rebound, but domestic prices lag behind. Short-term strategies should focus on macroeconomic influences [8] Lead - Lead production is expected to decrease due to factory repairs, easing supply pressure. However, demand remains weak, with limited purchasing activity from downstream sectors [9] Steel Industry - Steel prices are experiencing weak fluctuations, with rebar demand and production continuing to decline. The construction sector is slowing down, impacting overall demand [15][16] Iron Ore - Iron ore prices are fluctuating, with stable port inventories and a slight recovery in demand. Steel mills are expected to continue replenishing inventories in the short term [16] Fertilizer Industry - Urea prices are declining due to weak market sentiment and high inventory levels among producers. Agricultural demand remains low, leading to a continuation of weak market conditions [25] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices are experiencing low volatility, with market sentiment improving slightly. Total inventory levels are decreasing, indicating potential demand recovery [12] Agricultural Products - The USDA report indicates a slight increase in soybean production despite lower yield estimates. Market sentiment remains cautious as weather conditions are expected to impact future supply [37] Cotton - Cotton prices are fluctuating, with expectations of a large new crop. The market is closely monitoring the purchasing behavior of ginners as new cotton comes to market [44] Sugar - Sugar prices are under pressure due to high production levels in Brazil, while domestic sugar sales are increasing, leading to lower inventory levels [45]
大越期货聚烯烃早报-20250915
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-09-15 02:56
交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】1091号 聚烯烃早报 2025-9-15 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号:F3048432 投资咨询证号: Z0015557 联系方式:0575-85226759 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 • LLDPE概述: • 1. 基本面:宏观方面,8月份,官方PMI为49.4,比上月上升0.1个百分点,财新PMI50.4,较 前月上升0.6个百分点,制造业景气度有所改善。8 月以美元计价的中国出口额为3218.1 亿美元, 同比增长4.4%,较 7 月有所回落。原油方面,原油价格震荡,近日以色列袭击卡塔尔首都引发 中东地缘政治再次动荡,美欧等欲对俄油实施二级制裁。供需端,农膜逐渐进入旺季,但整体需 求仍较往年偏弱,其余包装膜等需求有所回升。当前LL交割品现货价7180(-20),基本面整体 中性; • 2. 基差: LLDPE 2601合约基差11,升贴水比例0.2%,中性; • 3. 库存:PE综合库存54 ...
中国医疗:地缘政治担忧重现…… 此次聚焦药品对外授权-China healthcare - Geopolitical concerns re-emerge..._ ...this time on out-licensing of drugs
2025-09-15 01:49
China healthcare Global Markets Research EQUITY: HEALTH CARE & PHARMACEUTICALS Geopolitical concerns re-emerge... ...this time on out-licensing of drugs What is new? The New York Times has reported that Trump administration is potentially contemplating curbs on medicines from China On 10 September morning (ET), the NYT reported that the Trump administration has been discussing placing stringent restrictions on medicines from China, including clinical- stage molecules and generics. The article reported that ...
晶圆代工,分化加剧
3 6 Ke· 2025-09-15 00:21
Core Insights - The semiconductor foundry industry is experiencing significant differentiation, with TSMC dominating the market, capturing 70.2% of global market share in Q2 2025, and achieving a revenue of $30.239 billion, marking an 18.5% quarter-over-quarter increase [1][2][5] - TSMC's success is attributed to its advanced process technologies (3nm, 5nm) and unique packaging solutions, which have positioned it as a critical player in the AI and high-performance computing (HPC) sectors [5][9][11] - Other foundries, such as Samsung, SMIC, and UMC, are facing challenges in maintaining market share and profitability, with Samsung's revenue at $3.159 billion and a market share of 7.3%, while SMIC's revenue declined slightly to $2.209 billion [2][6][12] Industry Overview - The top ten foundries collectively generated $41.718 billion in revenue in Q2 2025, reflecting a 14.6% increase from the previous quarter, indicating a recovery in the semiconductor cycle [2][4] - TSMC's revenue for the first half of 2025 reached $55.6 billion, with a gross margin of 58.7% and a net profit of $24 billion, showcasing its strong financial performance compared to its competitors [5][19] - The foundry landscape is characterized by a "one strong, many strong" dynamic, where TSMC leads while other firms like UMC and GlobalFoundries maintain stability through specialized processes [4][5][6] Trends and Challenges - The industry is witnessing three major trends: AI-driven demand, structural recovery in mature processes, and geopolitical reshaping of global supply chains [8][13] - AI and HPC demand have intensified the focus on advanced packaging, with TSMC being the only supplier capable of large-scale, high-yield CoWoS packaging, which is critical for AI chip production [9][16] - Mature process nodes are undergoing a recovery phase after significant inventory adjustments, with companies like UMC and VIS reporting improved margins due to rising demand in consumer electronics and automotive sectors [12][13] Future Outlook - The second half of 2025 will be pivotal, with TSMC expanding its packaging capacity and Samsung betting on its 2nm technology to regain competitiveness [15][17] - SMIC and other Chinese foundries need to enhance their product mix and manage depreciation pressures to improve profitability, while companies like Huahong and PSMC face challenges in maintaining financial stability [17][18] - The evolving landscape suggests that future winners will be those who can provide comprehensive system solutions rather than just excel in individual technologies [19]
军贸市场深度研究:全球百年变局激荡,我国军贸大有可为
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-14 16:43
Core Viewpoint - The report emphasizes the significant role of military trade in shaping geopolitical dynamics and national security, highlighting that military equipment exports are deeply intertwined with political interests and international relations [2][4]. Group 1: Overview of Military Trade - Military trade, or arms trade, is defined as the transfer of military equipment between countries, reflecting political, military, and diplomatic strategies [19]. - The military trade market is characterized by high concentration, with the top ten exporting countries accounting for 89.70% of global military trade from 2015-2019 and 88.60% from 2020-2024 [4][38]. - The primary military trade products include aircraft, missiles, naval vessels, and specialized vehicles, with aircraft consistently representing over 40% of the market share [4][38]. Group 2: Global Military Trade Landscape - The United States and its allies dominate global military trade, accounting for 64.10% and 78.06% of exports in the periods 2015-2019 and 2020-2024, respectively [2][42]. - The top five military exporting countries from 2015-2019 were the United States, Russia, France, China, and Germany, with France surpassing Russia in the subsequent period due to a decline in Russian exports [4][38]. - The global military trade market has experienced three major fluctuations since 1950, with a compound annual growth rate of 1.72% from 80.82 billion TIV to 289.38 billion TIV [37][38]. Group 3: Military Trade Dynamics - The military trade sector is influenced by geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Asia-Pacific and Middle East regions, which are the primary importers of military equipment [4][38]. - Recent trends show a decline in Russian military exports by 63.90% due to sanctions and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, while countries like Italy have seen significant increases in their military trade [42]. - The report indicates that military trade is not merely an economic activity but a strategic tool for nations to exert influence and maintain security balances [2][41].
原油周报:OPEC+快速增产,国际油价下降-20250914
Soochow Securities· 2025-09-14 09:45
Report Title - "Crude Oil Weekly Report: OPEC+ Rapidly Increases Production, International Oil Prices Decline" [1] Report Date - September 14, 2025 [1] Report Authors - Energy and Chemical Chief Securities Analyst: Chen Shuxian, CFA [1] - Energy and Chemical Analyst: Zhou Shaowen [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - This week, Brent/WTI crude oil futures had weekly average prices of $66.7/$62.7 per barrel, down $0.8/$1.2 from last week respectively. In the US, crude oil production, inventory, and the number of active rigs and fracturing fleets increased, while refinery processing volume decreased, and import and export volumes changed. US refined oil prices, inventory, production, and demand also showed various changes. [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Crude Oil Weekly Data Briefing - **Upstream Key Company Performance**: For example, China National Offshore Oil Corporation (600938.SH) had a weekly increase of 2.2%, and China National Petroleum Corporation (601857.SH) had a weekly decrease of 2.4%. [8][9] - **Crude Oil Price**: Brent, WTI, Russian Urals, and Russian ESPO crude oil prices had different degrees of decline compared to last week. [9] - **Crude Oil Inventory**: US total crude oil inventory, commercial crude oil inventory, strategic crude oil inventory, and Cushing crude oil inventory were 8.3/4.2/4.1/0.2 billion barrels respectively, with weekly changes of +445/+394/+51/-37 million barrels. [2][9] - **Crude Oil Production**: US crude oil production was 13.5 million barrels per day, up 70,000 barrels per day from last week. The number of active crude oil rigs was 416, up 2, and the number of active fracturing fleets was 164, up 5. [2][9] - **Refinery Data**: US refinery crude oil processing volume was 16.82 million barrels per day, down 50,000 barrels per day, and the refinery operating rate was 94.9%, up 0.6 pct. [2][9] - **Import and Export Volume**: US crude oil imports, exports, and net imports were 6.27/2.75/3.53 million barrels per day, with weekly changes of -47/-114/+67 million barrels per day. [2][9] - **Refined Oil Data**: US gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel had weekly average prices of $83/$97/$90 per barrel, down $1.8/$1.5/$4.1 from last week respectively. Inventory, production, demand, and import and export volumes also changed. [2][11] 2. This Week's Petroleum and Petrochemical Sector Market Review - **Petroleum and Petrochemical Sector Performance**: Not detailed in the given content - **Sector Listed Company Performance**: Many listed companies in the petroleum and petrochemical sector showed different degrees of rise and fall this week. For example, Sinopec Oilfield Service Corporation (600871.SH) had a weekly increase of 3.4%, and China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (600028.SH) had a weekly decrease of 1.2%. [24] 3. Crude Oil Sector Data Tracking - **Crude Oil Price**: Analyzed the price relationships and spreads among various types of crude oil, such as Brent, WTI, Russian Urals, and Russian ESPO, as well as the relationships between the US dollar index, LME copper price, and WTI crude oil price. [9][38] - **Crude Oil Inventory**: Studied the correlations between US commercial crude oil inventory and oil prices, and changes in US total crude oil inventory, commercial crude oil inventory, strategic crude oil inventory, and Cushing crude oil inventory. [45][49] - **Crude Oil Supply**: Focused on US crude oil production, the number of oil rigs, and the number of fracturing fleets, and their relationships with oil prices. [60][62] - **Crude Oil Demand**: Mainly looked at US refinery processing volume and operating rate. [9] - **Crude Oil Import and Export**: Analyzed US crude oil import, export, and net import volumes. [78] 4. Refined Oil Sector Data Tracking - **Refined Oil Price**: Analyzed the price adjustment rules of domestic refined oil based on international oil prices, and the price relationships and spreads between crude oil and refined oil in the US, Europe, and Singapore. [89][116] - **Refined Oil Inventory**: Studied the inventory changes of US gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, and Singapore gasoline and diesel. [11][130] - **Refined Oil Supply**: Focused on US gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel production. [152] - **Refined Oil Demand**: Mainly looked at US gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel consumption and the number of US airport passenger security checks. [156][157] - **Refined Oil Import and Export**: Analyzed US gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel import, export, and net export volumes. [170][173] 5. Oil Service Sector Data Tracking - **Day Rate**: Presented the average daily rates of self - elevating drilling platforms and semi - submersible drilling platforms. [187][188] Recommended Companies - Recommended companies include CNOOC Limited (600938.SH/0883.HK), PetroChina Company Limited (601857.SH/0857.HK), Sinopec (600028.SH/0386.HK), CNOOC Oilfield Services Limited (601808.SH), Offshore Oil Engineering Co., Ltd. (600583.SH), and CNOOC Energy Technology & Services Limited (600968.SH). Companies to be concerned about include Sinopec Oilfield Service Corporation (600871.SH/1033.HK), China Petroleum Engineering & Construction Corporation (600339.SH), and Sinopec Machinery Co., Ltd. (000852.SZ) [3]