Market Overview - The market experienced a downward trend with all three major indices closing lower: Shanghai Composite Index down 0.73%, Shenzhen Component Index down 1.16%, and ChiNext Index down 1.84% [1] Sector Performance - Energy metals, steel, and battery sectors showed strong gains, while gaming, power equipment, and coal sectors faced significant declines [1] Fund Flows - Major capital inflows were observed in energy metals, steel, and insurance sectors [1] ETF Performance - Rare metals, oil and gas, and battery-related ETFs performed well, likely driven by recent news [2] - The cancellation of a 10% tariff on Chinese goods by the U.S. and the suspension of a 24% reciprocal tariff for one year may positively impact market sentiment [2] Strategic Asset Insights - Small metals are viewed as having irreplaceable strategic uses, leading to an increase in overseas valuations that may elevate domestic strategic asset values [2] - The potential for a valuation reset across all domestic strategic assets is anticipated, not limited to rare earths [2] Oil and Gas Sector Outlook - Despite geopolitical uncertainties, the medium to long-term outlook for oil supply and demand remains positive, with a focus on major oil companies and oil service sectors [3] - A potential increase in oil prices could benefit upstream assets, while improved demand and supply management may favor midstream refining [3] Battery Industry Trends - The battery sector is benefiting from dual demand drivers in power and energy storage, with production capacity currently unable to meet demand [4] - Lithium battery demand is projected to grow by 40% for the year, with significant increases in global energy storage battery demand expected to reach 550 GWh by 2025, a 70% year-on-year increase [4] - Price increases for lithium hexafluorophosphate and lithium iron phosphate are anticipated, indicating a significant improvement in the supply-demand balance [4]

Core Points - The Netherlands government signaled a desire to negotiate with China regarding ASML, but this was met with a unified hardline stance from the EU, particularly Germany and France, indicating a collective approach to counter China [1][8][24] - China responded firmly to European pressure, stating that if Germany does not ease restrictions on high-tech exports to China, it will not relax its own export controls on rare earths [1][18] Group 1: Semiconductor and Technology Cooperation - In June, the Netherlands announced restrictions on ASML's exports of advanced lithography machines to China under U.S. pressure, severely impacting Sino-Dutch technological cooperation [3] - China retaliated by implementing export controls on critical metals gallium and germanium, essential for semiconductor manufacturing, with over 90% of gallium and 60% of germanium sourced from China [3][5] Group 2: European Industry Impact - The new export controls from ASML took effect on September 1, and by December 1, high-purity graphite was added to the restricted list, crucial for electric vehicle batteries, highlighting Europe's dependency on these materials during its green transition [5][10] - Germany's automotive industry, already suffering from chip shortages, faced production halts, indicating significant distress among major manufacturers like Mercedes, BMW, and Volkswagen [6][10] Group 3: Political Dynamics and Internal EU Tensions - The EU summit on October 23 marked a turning point, with German Chancellor Merz expressing a desire for a mutually acceptable solution while simultaneously criticizing China's rare earth controls, revealing internal contradictions within the EU [8][10] - France's President Macron suggested the EU should consider all retaliatory measures against China, while the European Commission President indicated readiness to use all available tools, reflecting a unified yet conflicted stance [8][10] Group 4: Economic Realities and Strategic Dependencies - Despite political rhetoric, European industries are increasingly aware of their reliance on Chinese resources, with reports indicating that Germany has submitted a "white list" to China for sectors like automotive and electronics, seeking to restore rare earth supplies [10][18] - The EU's internal discussions reveal a struggle to balance political posturing against the economic realities of dependence on Chinese markets and resources, with many companies reconsidering their supply chains [16][22] Group 5: Broader Implications for Sino-European Relations - The ongoing tensions over semiconductors and rare earths reflect deeper geopolitical and economic struggles, with European politicians exhibiting a duality of wanting to be tough on China while needing to maintain economic ties [20][24] - China's clear stance emphasizes that cooperation must be based on mutual respect and equality, rejecting one-sided benefits while asserting its position in the global supply chain [18][26]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The short - term macro is favorable, but the actual impact may be limited. The market is currently driven by short - term geopolitical factors, but the medium - term logic is the downward pressure from the excess supply in the fundamental supply - demand situation. It is necessary to pay attention to the time when the short - term geopolitical sentiment cools down and the market switches back to the fundamental logic [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs (1) Crude Oil - Logic: After the US Treasury Department's sanctions on two Russian oil companies last week, the crude oil market rebounded. However, the actual impact of the sanctions remains to be seen, and it is expected to be limited. The medium - term logic is the downward pressure due to the excess supply in the fundamental situation. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle, with a stop - loss reference of 471 [3]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level medium - term structure of crude oil is in a downward trend, and the hourly - level short - term structure is also in a downward trend. The upper short - term pressure is at the 471 level [3]. (2) Styrene (EB) - Logic: The rebound of crude oil last week had little impact on styrene. The supply - demand logic and expectations of styrene itself dominate the market. With the continuous commissioning of new plants and slow demand growth, the inventory of styrene has been accumulating, leading to a risk of price collapse. The strategy is to hold short positions [6]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure of styrene is in a downward trend. The upper short - term pressure is at the 6630 level [6]. (3) Rubber - Logic: Tire demand is stable, but the inventory pressure and high raw material prices have led to low inventory - building willingness. There is a certain bullish driving force in the short term due to continuous inventory reduction, but attention should be paid to the inventory - building pressure in the peak season in the medium term. The strategy is to stop profit on short positions [9]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level medium - term structure of rubber is in a downward trend, and the hourly - level short - term structure has turned bullish. The short - term support is at the 15240 level [9]. (4) Synthetic Rubber (BR) - Logic: The high supply pressure of butadiene rubber continues, and the inventory is accumulating. Attention should be paid to the continuous downward driving force brought by the loosening of the cost side. The strategy is to hold short positions, with a stop - profit reference of 11000 [13]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level medium - term structure and the hourly - level short - term structure of butadiene rubber are both in a downward trend. The upper short - term pressure has moved down to the 11000 level [13]. (5) PX - Logic: The high profit of PX drives high - level production, and the supply is sufficient while the demand is stable. The main logic follows the cost drive of crude oil. Affected by the notice of a polyester industry development symposium, the market traded the anti - involution sentiment in the afternoon. The strategy is to wait and see [16]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure of PX is in an upward trend. The lower support is at the 6570 level [16]. (6) PTA - Logic: The supply - demand contradiction of PTA is not significant. The main logic follows the cost drive of crude oil. Affected by the notice of a polyester industry development symposium, the market traded the anti - involution sentiment in the afternoon. The strategy is to wait and see [20]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure of PTA is in an upward trend. The lower short - term support is at the 4580 level [20]. (7) PP - Logic: After the commissioning of the Guangxi Petrochemical plant, the high supply pressure of PP remains. The demand recovery in the peak season is limited, and the supply - demand expectation is weak. Attention should be paid to the downward pressure on the cost side brought by the decline of crude oil. The strategy is to hold the short positions replenished yesterday, with a stop - loss reference of 6740 [25]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure of PP is in a downward trend. The upper short - term pressure is at the 6740 level [25]. (8) Methanol - Logic: Due to seasonal factors, there is a certain logic for going long on the methanol 01 contract in the future, but the short - term long - entry time has not arrived. The domestic supply and demand have both weakened, and the port inventory is still at a historical high. Attention should be paid to the technical signal of whether the market can break through the short - term pressure level and the time of gas restrictions in Iran. The strategy is to hold the remaining short positions in the hourly cycle cautiously, with a stop - profit at the 2300 level. For the hedging strategy, methanol can be used as a long - position allocation after breaking through the pressure level [27][29]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level medium - term and short - term structures of methanol are both in a downward trend. The upper short - term pressure has moved down to the 2300 level [29]. (9) PVC - Logic: The weekly production has decreased slightly due to maintenance, but the overall supply of PVC remains high. The domestic real - estate demand has collapsed, and the social inventory has accumulated to the highest level in history. The high - production, high - inventory, and weak - demand structure makes it difficult for the price to rise. The strategy is to hold short positions [31]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level medium - term and hourly - level short - term structures of PVC are both in a downward trend. The upper short - term pressure is at the 4800 level [31]. (10) Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Logic: The supply of ethylene glycol remains high, and the inventory has started to accumulate. The previous support from low inventory has disappeared, and the supply - demand weakening expectation is being realized. The strategy is to wait and see [34]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level medium - term structure of ethylene glycol is in a downward trend, and the hourly - level short - term structure is in an upward trend. The lower short - term support is at the 4065 level [34]. (11) Plastic - Logic: After the commissioning of the Guangxi Petrochemical plant, the supply pressure of plastic has increased. The demand in the peak season is weak, and the supply - demand expectation is weak. Attention should be paid to the cost - side collapse logic brought by the decline of crude oil. The strategy is to wait and see [39]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level medium - term structure of plastic is in a downward trend, and the hourly - level short - term structure is in an upward trend. The lower short - term support is at the 6955 level [39]. (12) Soda Ash - Logic: The high - supply and high - inventory situation of soda ash continues to worsen. The demand from the glass industry is unlikely to improve significantly, and there is no substantial policy intervention on the supply side. The fundamental downward driving force remains unchanged. The strategy is to hold the remaining short positions in the hourly cycle [43]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure of soda ash is in a downward trend. The upper short - term pressure is at the 1260 level [43]. (13) Caustic Soda - Logic: The production of caustic soda remains at a high level, and the supply pressure has increased due to the commissioning of new plants. The profit of the downstream alumina industry is under pressure, and the demand growth is limited. The supply - demand driving force is still weak under the high - inventory situation. The strategy is to wait and see after taking profit before the holiday [45]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure of caustic soda is in a downward trend. The upper short - term pressure is at the 2400 level [45].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Today, precious metals rebounded from a low level. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed down 0.55%, while the main contract of Shanghai Silver closed up 1.91%. The short - term outlook for precious metals is expected to be volatile and bullish, with a high - level oscillation in the medium term and a step - by - step upward trend in the long term [3]. - The gold price trend is the anchor for the silver price. In terms of capital, the net long position of CFTC silver and the iShare silver ETF increased slightly. In terms of inventory, the recent visible inventory of silver decreased slightly [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Core Logic**: In the short - term, regarding risk aversion, there may be a meeting between China and the US, easing the risk of a trade war. The risk of stagflation in the US economy is increasing, with weak employment and moderate inflation, and the market's expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut is being realized. In terms of the risk - aversion attribute, although the trade - war risk has eased, geopolitical fluctuations still exist. Regarding the monetary attribute, the US consumer confidence in October dropped to a six - month low, and the Fed may stop shrinking its balance sheet in the coming months. The market expects a 25 - basis - point interest - rate cut by the Fed in October with a probability of over 90%, and about 2 more cuts within the year. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields are oscillating strongly. In terms of the commodity attribute, the CRB commodity index is oscillating downward, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices [3]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. With the Fed's decision and the China - US talks this week, risk management is recommended [4]. - **Data**: Various data on gold, including international and domestic prices, basis and spreads, positions, inventories, etc., are presented with their changes compared to the previous day and the previous week [4]. - **Net Position Ranking**: The top 10 net - position rankings of futures companies' members in Shanghai Gold on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are provided, including the rankings of long and short positions [5]. Silver - **Core Logic**: The gold price trend is the anchor for the silver price. There are slight increases in the net long position of CFTC silver and the iShare silver ETF, and a slight decrease in the recent visible inventory of silver [6]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. With the Fed's decision and the China - US talks this week, risk management is recommended [7]. - **Data**: Various data on silver, including international and domestic prices, basis and spreads, positions, inventories, etc., are presented with their changes compared to the previous day and the previous week [7]. - **Net Position Ranking**: The top 10 net - position rankings of futures companies' members in Shanghai Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are provided, including the rankings of long and short positions [8]. Fundamental Key Data - **Fed - Related Data**: Data such as the federal funds target rate, discount rate, reserve balance rate, total assets of the Fed, M2, etc., are presented with their changes compared to the previous week [9]. - **Other Key Indicators**: Key indicators including various interest - rate spreads, inflation data, economic growth data, labor - market data, real - estate market data, consumption data, industrial data, and trade data are provided with their changes [11]. - **Central Bank Gold Reserves and Related Ratios**: Data on central bank gold reserves of different countries, the proportion of different currencies in IMF foreign exchange reserves, the ratio of gold to foreign exchange reserves, and other related data are presented [13]. - **Risk - Aversion and Commodity Attributes**: Data on the geopolitical risk index, VIX index, CRB commodity index, and offshore RMB are provided with their changes [13]. - **Fed's Interest - Rate Expectations**: The expected probabilities of the Fed's interest - rate ranges at different meeting dates are presented [14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Most of the varieties in the energy and chemical industry are rated as "oscillating", including PX, PTA, short - fiber, methanol, urea, LLDPE, PP, PL, PVC, and caustic soda. Some are rated as "oscillating weakly", such as crude oil, pure benzene, and styrene. Others are rated as "oscillating downward", like asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, and low - sulfur fuel oil [9][17][18] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical support for crude oil shows signs of weakening. If there is no further reduction in supply, oil prices will return to a weak supply - demand situation. The chemical sector is waiting for more guidance. The bullish power of styrene is gradually brewing, but it still faces pressure from high inventory and new installations. The strong pattern of PTA may change after the meeting of the Price Department of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology. Overall, the energy and chemical industry is expected to oscillate and consolidate in the short term, waiting for the geopolitical situation to calm down [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **Viewpoint**: Supply pressure continues, and geopolitical risks still exist. - **Main Logic**: Concerns about Russian oil supply have eased, and the spot market for Middle Eastern crude oil has weakened. The marginal geopolitical risk has decreased. The API data shows a decline in US crude oil inventories last week, but the overseas supply pressure still persists. If geopolitical concerns continue to ease, oil prices will return to a weak state [9] Asphalt - **Viewpoint**: As crude oil prices fall, asphalt may be pressured to decline. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ will continue to increase production in November, Saudi Arabia has lowered the export premium to Asia, and the Israel - Palestine conflict has ended. After the sharp rise in oil prices, the market is evaluating the situation, and oil prices have fallen, which may put pressure on asphalt futures prices. The asphalt - fuel oil spread is expected to continue to decline, and the over - valuation premium of asphalt is starting to fall [9][10] High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: As crude oil prices fall, fuel oil may be pressured to decline. - **Main Logic**: After the rise in oil prices, the market is evaluating the situation, and oil prices have fallen, driving fuel oil prices down. Although the Israel - Palestine conflict has ended, the Russia - Ukraine conflict continues to escalate, and the demand for fuel oil is still weak [10] Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: Low - sulfur fuel oil fluctuates and rises following crude oil. - **Main Logic**: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the oscillation of crude oil. It is affected by factors such as sanctions on Russia, and its fundamentals face challenges such as a decline in shipping demand and substitution by green energy [12] Methanol - **Viewpoint**: Overseas disturbances will increase after November, and methanol is viewed with oscillation. - **Main Logic**: On October 28, the methanol futures price oscillated and declined. The high port inventory still has a suppressing effect in the short term, but considering the high probability of Iranian disturbances approaching winter, methanol still has value for low - buying [29] Urea - **Viewpoint**: The market sentiment has ebbed, and it is viewed with continuous pressure. - **Main Logic**: On October 28, the market sentiment weakened, and the spot downstream transactions were cautious. Urea returned to the fundamental situation and is expected to oscillate and consolidate [30] Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - **Viewpoint**: Driven by the sentiment of related varieties, but the fundamentals are under pressure and the elasticity is limited. - **Main Logic**: The cost side oscillates without a clear direction. The supply of coal - based MEG is high, and the supply pressure in November is still large, leading to a significant inventory build - up from November to December [20] PX - **Viewpoint**: The market sentiment fermentation and cost game, pay attention to the conference resolution. - **Main Logic**: The concern about Russian oil supply has eased, and the medium - and long - term oil prices still face surplus pressure, causing the cost support to be insufficient in the short term. The PX supply - demand pattern has slightly improved, and the bottom support of PXN has increased. The price is expected to be sorted out within the range in the short term [13][14] PTA - **Viewpoint**: The cost has fallen and failed to resonate with the sentiment. Pay attention to the subsequent situation of the conference. - **Main Logic**: The cost support is insufficient in the short term due to the easing of concerns about Russian oil supply. The downstream production and sales have turned cold. The PTA price is expected to oscillate under the game between cost and the fermentation of the conference news [14][16] Short - Fiber - **Viewpoint**: Pay attention to the upstream sentiment fermentation, and there is no pressure on its own inventory. - **Main Logic**: After the slowdown in price increase, the production and sales of polyester short - fiber have become dull. The downstream demand is weak, and the cost support is disturbed. The price is expected to be sorted out within the range in the short term [24][25] Bottle - Chip - **Viewpoint**: The cost support has weakened, pay attention to the conference results. - **Main Logic**: The market is digesting the impact of anti - involution on upstream polyester raw materials. The oil price has turned down again, and the polyester bottle - chip price is expected to oscillate following the cost in the short term [26] Propylene and PP - **Viewpoint**: The spread between propylene and PP continues to fluctuate in the range of 500 - 550, and PL oscillates. PP is viewed within a range. - **Main Logic**: The oil price oscillates, and the supply - side situation of Russian oil is difficult to verify. The fundamentals of PP support are limited, and the inventory is at a high level. The PL price oscillates, and the spread between PP and PL fluctuates around 500 [33][34] Plastic (LLDPE) - **Viewpoint**: The cost - side support confronts the supply - demand pressure, and plastic is viewed within a range. - **Main Logic**: The oil price rebounds, and the supply - side situation of Russian oil is difficult to verify. The plastic's own fundamentals support is limited, and the profit support is also limited. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [32] Styrene - **Viewpoint**: There is a lack of positive driving factors, and styrene oscillates weakly. - **Main Logic**: Styrene has followed the decline in oil prices and then rebounded, but the rebound is weak. It is affected by factors such as new installations and weak downstream follow - up [18][19] PVC - **Viewpoint**: It has low valuation and weak expectations, and PVC oscillates. - **Main Logic**: The macro - level sentiment has improved, but the PVC fundamentals are under pressure. The production will increase, the downstream demand is only released at low prices, and the export is affected by anti - dumping [36] Caustic Soda - **Viewpoint**: The spot price stabilizes, and the futures price oscillates. - **Main Logic**: The macro - level sentiment has improved, but the upstream production is high. The demand elasticity of caustic soda is limited, and the price is expected to oscillate widely [37] 4. Summary of Index Data - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity index was 2242.59, down 0.90%; the commodity 20 index was 2532.38, down 1.19%; the industrial products index was 2238.86, down 0.64% [285] - **Energy Index**: On October 28, 2025, the energy index was 1168.84, with a daily decline of 0.85%, a 5 - day increase of 3.52%, a 1 - month decline of 2.56%, and a year - to - date decline of 4.81% [287]

Core Viewpoint - The EU hopes that China will not escalate the Anshi issue and will ease export controls on rare earths, indicating a complex interplay of trade, security, and geopolitical factors in the current situation [1][9]. Group 1: Anshi Incident - The Anshi issue is a chain reaction within the trade ecosystem, involving more than just stock certificates and press releases [1]. - Nexperia, originally a Dutch brand, is now controlled by Wingtech, with production in China, exemplifying the globalized model of "headquarters in the West, production in the East" [3]. - The U.S. has placed Wingtech on the entity list, prompting the Netherlands to intervene through legal and governmental means, reflecting economic security concerns masked as legal actions [3][11]. Group 2: Impact on European Automotive Industry - China's reciprocal response includes restrictions on certain exports from Anshi's China operations, disrupting European orders and causing anxiety among automotive manufacturers [5]. - The swift market reaction saw Wingtech's stock plummet, and automotive associations in Germany and France began calculating production losses due to inventory shortages [5]. - The intertwined nature of the Anshi incident and China's rare earth export controls poses a significant threat to Europe's electric vehicle and wind power industries [7]. Group 3: Rare Earth Export Controls - China has expanded its rare earth export controls, requiring registration and purpose explanations for exports of gallium, germanium, neodymium, and praseodymium, leading to a backlog of approvals [7]. - The EU's reliance on China for purification and separation technologies complicates the situation, making it difficult to quickly replace existing capacities even with new mines [9][11]. Group 4: EU's Internal Conflicts - The EU faces a dilemma between maintaining market rules and investment freedom while dealing with the reality of supply chain vulnerabilities [13]. - The Anshi and rare earth issues should not be viewed in isolation; they represent a broader friction between interests, rules, technology, security, law, and politics between China and Europe [13]. Group 5: Long-term Implications - The situation reveals the necessity for diversified supply chains, though complete replacement of existing capabilities is challenging in the short term [17]. - The ideal response for the EU would involve dialogue and technological cooperation to mitigate risks, but political realities complicate these discussions [17][20]. - The ongoing geopolitical tensions suggest that both sides will continue to engage in a protracted negotiation process, balancing face-saving measures and industrial security [22].

Market News and Important Data - The price of light crude oil futures for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 19 cents to $61.31 per barrel, a decline of 0.31%; the price of Brent crude oil futures for December delivery fell 32 cents to $65.62 per barrel, a decline of 0.49%. The SC crude oil main contract closed down 0.75% at 465 yuan per barrel [1] - Iraq's oil minister stated that Iraq is negotiating its OPEC quota, aiming to re - evaluate within its available production capacity of 5.5 million barrels per day, while currently adhering to the OPEC quota of 4.4 million barrels per day [1][4] - A US senior diplomat refuted Hungary's argument about relying on Russian oil. The US is pressuring Hungary to find alternative suppliers. Hungary is highly dependent on Russian oil and gas, and the US and EU have recently imposed sanctions on Russian oil companies [1] - Mexico's state - owned oil company needs to make up for a loss of 3000 barrels of crude oil per month to maintain stable production [1] Investment Logic - After Western sanctions on Russia, future focus is on the implementation of secondary sanctions and whether buyers are willing to bear the risk of sanctions. Russia may switch trading entities to avoid sanctions. Geopolitical factors between countries are crucial, and there may be trade links for oil similar to those of Arctic 2 LNG [2] Strategy - Oil prices will fluctuate in the short - term due to sanctions and a short - position allocation is recommended in the medium - term [3] Risks - Downside risks: The US relaxes sanctions on Russian oil and macro black - swan events [3] - Upside risks: The US tightens sanctions on Russian oil, Sino - US negotiations achieve breakthrough results, and large - scale supply disruptions occur due to Middle - East conflicts [3]

Group 1 - The core of the recent sanctions imposed by the Trump administration targets two major Russian energy companies, Rosneft and Lukoil, aiming to exclude them from the global dollar financial system [1][3] - The sanctions are designed to cut off the substantial revenue that Russia earns from fossil fuels, which is crucial for sustaining its military operations in Ukraine [5][7] - The immediate effect of these sanctions has led to a rise in global oil prices, increasing export pressures on Russia while potentially providing Ukraine with more leverage in negotiations [5][9] Group 2 - The sanctions serve a dual purpose: to create geopolitical pressure for peace in Ukraine and to benefit the U.S. energy sector by filling the energy gap left by Russian oil in Europe [9][11] - The U.S. is positioned as a leading exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG), and the sanctions against Russia could provide a significant opportunity for U.S. LNG to penetrate the European market [11][13] - The effectiveness of these sanctions hinges on the cooperation of major buyers like India and China, which could undermine the sanctions if they continue to purchase Russian oil using alternative currencies [16][18] Group 3 - If the sanctions succeed, Russia's economy may suffer due to reduced revenues, potentially forcing it back to the negotiation table, while the U.S. could dominate the European energy market [20][22] - Conversely, if Russia finds new buyers and payment methods, it could mitigate the impact of the sanctions, leading to increased global oil prices and harming the U.S. and its allies [20][22] - The outcome of this economic confrontation will significantly influence global energy markets and the geopolitical landscape in the coming months [22]

Core Viewpoint - The recent pullback in international gold prices is attributed to profit-taking after previous highs and a technical need for short-term adjustments, which is considered a normal fluctuation during high-level operations [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Global fiscal deficits are expected to continue expanding, and the Federal Reserve is likely to maintain a loose monetary policy [1] - In a loose environment, the risk-free interest rate remains low, enhancing the appeal of gold as a "no-credit-backed" safe-haven asset [1] - The stable trend of central bank gold purchases highlights the long-term strategic value of gold allocation, supported by both policy and demand factors [1] Group 2: Short-term Outlook - This week, market focus will be on geopolitical developments, particularly in the Russia-Ukraine context, as well as the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, which may impact short-term gold price movements [1] - From a technical perspective, short-term support is observed in the range of $3970 to $3950 per ounce, while resistance is noted at around $4070 per ounce [1] - Continuous monitoring of global debt and central bank gold purchasing dynamics is essential, along with vigilance against short-term sentiment-induced volatility, while emphasizing the sustainability of long-term support logic [1]

(原油) 昨日布伦特12合约涨0.09%，有消息称本周日0PEC+会议将决定在12月进一步增产，此前原油因俄罗 斯制裁升级及中美贸易谈判积极信号而引发的乐观情绪受到抑制。原油市场中期供需宽松压力不 变，且考虑到近期中美博弈风险的缓和限制了地缘犹动的影响上限，我们认为短期原油震荡偏强、 但反弹高度亦受限,策略方面再次关注原油空头逢高入场与虚值看涨期权相结合的组合。 【责金属】 隔夜贵金属延续下跌。周末中美就稳妥解决多项重要经贸议题形成初步共识,短期风险偏好向好, 贯金属或将构筑高位震荡平台，耐心等待企稳后参与机会。本周重点关注美联储议息会议和APEC领 导人峰会。 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn (锌) 外盘低库存，伦锌继续偏强运行，锌锭现货出口窗口打开，国内贸易商和炼厂积极寻求出口，外盘 带动内盘跟涨。国内炼厂冬储在即,海外炼厂利润修复后存增产预期，11月内外矿TC齐转降，四季 度沪锌不做空头配置。短期消费偏弱，反弹动力来自出口和成本支撑，沪锌上方暂看2.3万元/吨压 力位。 【铜】 隔夜铜价收复盘中跌幅，在中美商务谈判乐观气氛引导下，内外铜价逼近纪录位置。同时，联储再 次兑现降息动 ...