燃料油日报 | 2026-02-12 盘面震荡偏强运行，节前注意地缘风险 市场分析 上期所燃料油期货主力合约日盘收涨1.38%，报2860元/吨；INE低硫燃料油期货主力合约日盘收涨2.32%，报3357 元/吨。 高硫方面：中性，关注伊朗局势发展，尽量规避地缘风险，节前轻仓运行 低硫方面：中性，关注伊朗局势发展，尽量规避地缘风险，节前轻仓运行 跨品种：无 跨期：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 宏观风险、关税风险、制裁风险、原油价格大幅波动等、发电端需求超预期、欧佩克增产幅度不及预期、船燃需 求超预期 近期能源板块波动受到伊朗局势影响较大，目前来看形势仍未完全明朗。短期需要保持谨慎，密切关注局势发展。 站在品种自身基本面的角度来看，高硫燃料油近期市场结构偏强运行，下游船燃需求良好，国内炼厂对委油的原 料替代也促进了燃料油的进口需求。但市场暂无短缺预期，俄罗斯1月发货量明显回升，将传递到亚洲2月份到港 量的增加上。整体来看，在地缘局势相对可控的前提下，高硫燃料油自身基本面不具备持续走强的动力，尤其在 高运费的环境下，估值过高会抑制下游炼厂端需求。 低硫燃料油方面，当前基本面矛盾不明显，科威特等局部地区供应存在增量 ...

策略 石油沥青日报 | 2026-02-12 现货端矛盾有限，节前注意地缘风险 市场分析 1、2月11日沥青期货下午盘收盘行情：主力BU2603合约下午收盘价3358元/吨，较昨日结算价上涨17元/吨，涨幅 0.51%；持仓41191手，环比下跌16545手，成交58932手，环比下跌23976手。 2、卓创资讯重交沥青现货结算价：东北，3506—3600元/吨；山东，3180—3240元/吨；华南，3290—3350元/吨； 华东，3250—3280元/吨。 昨日沥青现货价格整体企稳。临近春节，沥青现货市场供需双弱，产业端对价格指引有限。就期货盘面而言，由 于中东地缘风险并未完全消退，地缘风险溢价仍存，盘面震荡偏强运行。然而伊朗局势是加剧还是缓和目前缺乏 确定性信号，包括沥青在内的能化板块商品可能受到消息面的反复扰动，需要保持谨慎。此外，国内炼厂已经开 始准备3月份之后的原料切换，已经有炼厂采购浮仓与保税罐中的伊朗原油来替代马瑞原油，还有炼厂在竞标加拿 大冷湖原油。整体来看，原料端替代并无绝对瓶颈，但成本相比过去的抬升或难以避免。此外，如果中东局势恶 化，则替代原料供应也将面临更大威胁，市场上行风险仍存。 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Views - Geopolitical risks continue to disrupt, causing platinum and palladium to oscillate strongly. As of February 11, 2026, the closing price of the GFEX platinum main contract was 551.15 yuan/gram, up 1.91%, and the closing price of the GFEX palladium main contract was 439.1 yuan/gram, down 1.68% [1] - In the short - term, the market is in a stage of shock consolidation, and in the long - term, the weakening trend of the US dollar credit is conducive to the release of long - term price elasticity. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on platinum and short on palladium. The medium - and long - term price is expected to be oscillating strongly [2] - The supply of palladium is uncertain, the spot is in short supply, and although there is structural pressure on the demand side, the price has clear support below. The medium - and long - term price is expected to be oscillating strongly [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Platinum - **Main Logic**: In the short - term, sanctions on Russian platinum - group metals, geopolitical issues between the US and Iran, and fluctuations in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations disrupt the market, and pre - holiday trading is cautious. In the long - term, the US is in an interest - rate cut channel, and the weakening of the US dollar credit is conducive to price elasticity. The platinum - palladium ratio has fallen to a low - level range this week [2] - **Outlook**: Oscillating strongly. The supply - demand fundamentals are healthy, and the macro - expectations are positive [2] Palladium - **Main Logic**: Supply is uncertain due to US investigations on Russian palladium imports and potential European sanctions. The palladium lease rate has risen, and the spot shortage supports the price. There is structural pressure on the demand side. Although long - term supply and demand tend to be loose, the short - term spot shortage and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations support the price [3] - **Outlook**: Oscillating strongly. The spot shortage and the improving macro - environment support the price [3] Index - **Special Index**: The commodity index was 2390.85, up 0.32%; the commodity 20 index was 2729.71, up 0.27%; the industrial products index was 2290.96, up 0.41% [49] - **Plate Index**: The non - ferrous metal index on February 11, 2026, had a daily increase of 0.24%, a 5 - day decrease of 0.08%, a 1 - month decrease of 5.51%, and a year - to - date increase of 0.32%. The PPI commodity index was 1407.45, up 0.18% [50]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the performance of oil and gas ETFs, with significant gains in several component stocks, including a 9.98% increase in China Merchants Energy and over 8% in COSCO Shipping Energy [2][4] - The OPEC report maintains its global oil supply and demand forecast for the next two years, with a notable decrease in January's average daily production by 439,000 barrels to 42.448 million barrels, exceeding market expectations [4][5] - The recent geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran have contributed to rising oil prices, with US crude oil futures closing at $64.89 per barrel, up 1.45%, and Brent crude at $69.60, up 1.15% [4][5] Group 2 - The marginal improvement in the supply-demand fundamentals is providing solid support for oil prices, with OPEC+ confirming a continued production halt until March 2026, alleviating concerns about oversupply [5][6] - Domestic oil companies are reducing their sensitivity to oil price fluctuations through integrated upstream and downstream operations and diversifying their oil and gas sources [6][7] - The oil and gas ETF focuses on the upstream and downstream sectors of the oil and gas industry, including exploration, equipment, refining, and transportation, emphasizing companies with quality reserves and stable dividend capabilities [6][7]

期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货原油早报-2026-02-12 品种晨会纪要 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 | 2604 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 地缘风险升温，原油震荡偏强 | 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 原油（SC） 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：近期供需基本面的边际改善提供坚实支撑。OPEC+八大主要产油国明确宣布 2026 年 3 月 继续暂停增产，产量维持 2025 年 12 月水平，有效缓解了市场对于供应过剩的担忧。 ...

2026 年 2 月 12 日申万期货品种策略日报-黄金白银 | | 申银万国期货研究所 | | | 陈梦赟（从业资格号：F03147376；交易咨询号：Z0022753） | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | chenmy@sywgqh.com.cn | 021-50585911 | | | | | | 沪金 2606 | 沪金 2604 | 沪银 2606 | 沪银 2604 | | | | 昨日收盘价 | 1133.00 | 1130.400 | 20505 | 20944 | | | 期 | 前日收盘价 | 1123.96 | 1121.220 | 19711 | 20284 | | | 货 | 涨跌（收盘价） | 9.04 | 9.180 | 794 | 660 | | | 市 | 涨跌幅（收盘价） | 0.80% | 0.82% | 4.03% | 3.25% | | | 场 | 持仓量 | 89881 | 160510 | 134806 | 211818 | | | | 成交量 | 44843 | 217933 | 2 ...

2月8日至9日，基辅遭遇多次爆炸，俄军打击乌军用机场等基础设施，俄外长拉夫罗夫强硬表态称，若 欧洲对俄攻击，俄方将采取"完全军事回应"。同时，俄美《新削减战略武器条约》已于2月5日到期，双 方未就新条约达成共识，加剧地缘不确定性。 资金动向 经济观察网 根据欧盟外交事务代表卡拉斯的表态，欧盟将向成员国提交一份对俄罗斯的让步要求清 单，内容包括要求俄方归还被绑架的乌克兰儿童、限制武装力量等，并可能将冻结的约2100亿欧元俄罗 斯资产作为谈判筹码。此前的2月5日，俄美乌三方在阿布扎比举行新一轮会谈，但核心领土问题仍未突 破，且会谈前后双方冲突持续。爱沙尼亚情报机构发布报告指出，俄罗斯可能将和谈作为"拖延战术"， 旨在恢复与美国关系而非真正寻求和平。 数据显示，跨境ETF中稀有金属ETF领涨，反映资金向资源防御性板块倾斜。尽管东欧区域基金未直接 列明，但地缘风险升温可能推动资金流向避险资产。此外，弘毅远方基金获股东增资2900万元，FOF配 置重心转向被动工具，或间接影响区域基金流动性。 近期事件 以上内容基于公开资料整理，不构成投资建议。 ...

Group 1 - The gold market is expected to maintain a long-term upward trend despite short-term fluctuations, supported by geopolitical risks, central bank gold purchases, monetary policy shifts, and supply-demand gaps, with mainstream institutions generally bullish on gold prices for the year [1][6][12] - China is a major consumer of gold, with significant public investment enthusiasm, and global geopolitical risks are providing continuous premium support for gold prices, which is expected to persist through 2026 [3][5] - Central bank gold purchases have become a structural driver for the gold market, with global net purchases reaching 1,136 tons in 2025, marking a historical high, and this trend is expected to continue into 2026 [6][8] Group 2 - Geopolitical risks have contributed approximately 12 percentage points to gold price increases this year, and any sudden developments, such as a breakdown in US-Iran negotiations, could lead to short-term price increases of 5%-25% [5][11] - The shift in global monetary policy, particularly anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, is expected to significantly lower the opportunity cost of holding gold, enhancing its investment appeal [9][11] - The supply-demand imbalance in the gold market is projected to worsen by 2026, with demand reaching 5,270 tons and supply at only 4,950 tons, which will drive gold prices higher [12][14] Group 3 - Investment capital is increasingly focused on gold mining and equity control, with a projected supply-demand gap of 320 tons in 2026, reinforcing the long-term bullish outlook for gold prices [14][15] - For individual investors, small-scale investments in gold are recommended, with strategies such as phased allocation and strict position control to manage risks while taking advantage of the long-term upward potential [15]

Group 1 - Gold prices are supported by global reserve demand and geopolitical risks, with expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut putting downward pressure on the dollar, creating a dual upward momentum [1] - Industrial demand remains robust, and central bank gold purchases continue, but high interest rates suppress speculation, leading to price fluctuations driven by macro policies and market sentiment [1] - The expansion of photovoltaic and electronic demand provides long-term support, while constraints at the mining level and weak elasticity of recycled silver exacerbate volatility [1] Group 2 - Recent U.S. retail sales data, known as "terrifying data," underperformed expectations but had limited impact on the market; focus is now on the non-farm payroll report, which is unlikely to change market trends significantly [2] - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East, particularly between the U.S. and Iran, is escalating, with potential implications for gold and oil prices [2] - Gold and silver are currently in a "fifth phase" of long-term consolidation, characterized by a lack of sustained price movements, leading to volatile trading conditions [2] Group 3 - For spot gold, key resistance is identified in the $5090-$5100 range, with a short-term adjustment expected before any upward breakout; the support zone is between $4980-$5000 [3] - The current market is in a sweeping phase, making it difficult to establish a one-sided trend; resistance levels to watch include $5140-$5150 and $5220-$5240, while support levels are at $4900 and $4820-$4830 [3] Group 4 - For spot silver, the market is in a wide-ranging consolidation phase, with indications of a potential shift from bullish to bearish; the current outlook suggests a lengthy sweeping phase with multiple trading opportunities [4] - Key resistance levels for silver are at $85-$86, $92-$93, and the $100 mark, while support levels are at $78-$79 and $75-$76, with critical support at $70-$71 and $64-$65 [4]

Group 1 - In January, the national futures market in China saw a significant increase in trading volume and value, with a trading volume of 912 million contracts and a trading value of 100.26 trillion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 65.09% and 105.14% respectively [1] - The increase in market activity is attributed to several factors, including a rotation effect among market sectors, heightened demand for hedging and asset allocation due to geopolitical risks, increased price volatility of certain commodities, and seasonal effects at the beginning of the year [1][2] - The number of listed futures and options in China reached 165 by the end of January, with over 50 products, including silver, copper, aluminum, tin, and nickel, experiencing year-on-year trading volume growth exceeding 100% [2] Group 2 - Notable increases in trading volume were observed in nickel futures, which grew by 799.06%, followed by copper and aluminum futures with increases of 403.75% and 395.39% respectively, and silver futures with a growth of 177.89% [2] - The demand for precious and non-ferrous metals is driven by industrial needs, particularly in sectors such as photovoltaics, artificial intelligence, and electric vehicles, which has intensified the investment interest in these commodities [2] - The top three products by trading value in January were silver, gold, and copper on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, while the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange and Dalian Commodity Exchange had PTA, cotton, and coking coal as their top products [3]