Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Fuel oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Asphalt and liquefied petroleum gas: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The short-term unilateral risk of oil prices is upward, and there is still significant uncertainty in geopolitical changes in the next two weeks. It is recommended to continue holding the long strangle strategy of out-of-the-money options for hedging and then enter medium-term short positions after the volatility increases [2]. - The fundamentals of fuel oil and low-sulfur fuel oil are relatively more bullish than before. Due to geopolitical conflicts, high-sulfur resources are more affected by geopolitical premiums, and the spread between FU and SC cracking has strengthened [3][4]. - The international LPG market rebounded supported by import demand. Currently, the domestic arrival volume continues to increase. Attention should be paid to the pressure on the domestic chemical industry after the increase in import costs [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Last week, the crude oil market rose. Brent's October contract rose 2.51%, and SC10 contract rose 1.13% [2]. - The promotion of the Russia-Ukraine peace agreement was not as smooth as the market expected. Since August, Ukraine has frequently attacked Russian energy infrastructure, and the market's previous pricing of the easing of the Russia-Ukraine situation has been revised [2]. - The net long positions in overseas crude oil futures and options have reached the lower end of the range and are still relatively sensitive to bullish geopolitical risks. Trump mentioned that if Russia and Ukraine do not hold direct talks within two weeks, large-scale sanctions will be imposed [2]. Fuel Oil & Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - On Monday, the fuel oil futures continued to strengthen, with the FU increase being obvious, and the main contract rose above 2900 yuan/ton [3][4]. - As of the end of July, Singapore's marine fuel sales decreased by 1.7% year-on-year, and China's bonded marine fuel bunkering demand decreased by 1% year-on-year. At the same time, the enthusiasm of domestic refineries to produce marine fuel was also low, and the supply decreased by 19% year-on-year as of July [3][4]. - The onshore fuel oil inventories in Singapore and Fujairah decreased month-on-month, and the inventory pressure showed a relief trend [3][4]. - Due to geopolitical conflicts in Russia and Iran, high-sulfur resources are more affected by geopolitical premiums. In terms of variety spreads, the spread between FU and SC cracking has strengthened, and the spreads between LU-FU and BU-FU have significantly narrowed [3][4]. Asphalt - The content is the same as that of fuel oil and low-sulfur fuel oil [3][4]. LPG - The international LPG market rebounded supported by import demand. Currently, the domestic arrival volume continues to increase. Due to the low-price goods in the early stage, the sales pressure is limited. Attention should be paid to the pressure on the domestic chemical industry after the increase in import costs [5]. - With the stabilization of crude oil, the spread between naphtha and propane remains at an advantageous level, and there is high chemical demand in the short term [5].

Market Overview - The dollar index experienced a significant drop following Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting, which raised expectations for a rate cut in September, ultimately closing up 0.4934% at 97.7, marking the largest single-day decline since early August [1][2] - Spot gold surged after Powell's remarks, reaching a peak of $3378.8 per ounce during the session, and closing up 1% at $3372.11 per ounce [1][2] - Spot silver also followed gold's upward trend, closing up 1.72% at $38.85 per ounce [1][2] Key News Summary - Powell's dovish signals regarding a potential rate cut in September have bolstered the financial appeal of precious metals, despite internal concerns about inflation from officials like Harker and political uncertainties stemming from Trump's threats to dismiss Federal Reserve governors [3] - On the global trade front, Trump's announcement of tariffs on imported furniture and Canada's decision to maintain steel and aluminum tariffs have complicated trade relations, potentially heightening risk aversion [3] - Geopolitical tensions are also rising, with Trump setting a two-week deadline for Russia-Ukraine negotiations and hinting at new sanctions against Russia, which increases the geopolitical risk premium [3] Trading Insights - Precious metals are expected to continue a strong oscillation in the short term, with the Fed's rate cut expectations being the primary driver; if the September policy is implemented and signals further easing, gold prices may test resistance around $3440 [4] - Conversely, if inflation or employment data exceeds expectations, it could trigger profit-taking [4] - Silver, benefiting from its industrial properties and speculative sentiment, may show greater elasticity compared to gold, but attention should be paid to resistance around $39.5 [4]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Gold, Silver Futures Weekly Report [2] - Report Period: August 25 - 29, 2025 [1] Group 2: Gold Futures 2.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term Trend: The overall trend of Shanghai Gold futures is in a sideways phase, possibly at the beginning [7]. - Trend Logic: Last week, the gold price showed a volatile and weak trend, with weekly fluctuations between - 0.36% and 0.32%. It was mainly affected by the repeated expectations of the Fed's interest - rate cuts, the cooling of geopolitical risks suppressing short - term hedging demand, combined with the outflow of ETF funds and the increase in inventory [7]. - Next Week's Focus: Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting, US economic data's impact on interest - rate cut expectations, and new changes in the geopolitical situation [7]. - Mid - term Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [8]. 2.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: The main gold contract 2510 was expected to move in a volatile manner. Grid trading was recommended in the range of 735 - 838 [11]. - This Week's Strategy: The main gold contract 2510 is expected to move in a volatile manner. Grid trading is recommended in the range of 760 - 800 [12]. 2.3 Related Data - Data includes Shanghai Gold and COMEX gold price trends, SPDR gold ETF holdings, COMEX gold inventory, US 10 - year Treasury yield, US dollar index, US dollar against offshore RMB, gold - silver ratio, Shanghai Gold basis, and gold internal - external price difference [19][21][23] Group 3: Silver Futures 3.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term Trend: The overall trend of Shanghai Silver futures is steadily rising, currently at the end of the trend [32]. - Trend Logic: Last week, the silver price showed a "bottom - fishing and rebound" trend. It was mainly affected by the wavering expectations of the Fed's policies, with inventory decline providing bottom support, while weak industrial demand and technical break - outs triggering phased selling pressure [32]. - Next Week's Focus: Policy signals from the Jackson Hole Central Bank Annual Meeting, US non - farm data, and the implementation effect of domestic stimulus policies. The market may continue the volatile and slightly strong pattern [32]. - Mid - term Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [33]. 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: The silver contract 2510 was expected to be in high - level oscillation, with the lower support range at 8500 - 8800 and the upper pressure range at 9200 - 9500 [36]. - This Week's Strategy: The silver contract 2510 is expected to be in high - level oscillation, with the lower support range at 8500 - 8800 and the upper pressure range at 9200 - 9500 [37]. 3.3 Related Data - Data includes Shanghai Silver and COMEX silver price trends, SLV silver ETF holdings, COMEX silver inventory, Shanghai Silver basis, and silver internal - external price difference [45][48][50]

Market Overview - The Dalian Commodity Exchange's liquefied gas futures opened at 4370 CNY/ton and reached a high of 4409 CNY/ton, with a current price of 4387 CNY/ton, reflecting a 1.67% increase [1] - On August 20, liquefied gas futures had an opening price of 4295 CNY/ton, a closing price of 4354 CNY/ton, and a trading volume of 98,400 contracts [2] Market News - As of August 20, the number of liquefied petroleum gas futures warehouse receipts was 13,298 contracts, which is an increase of 20 contracts compared to the previous trading day [2] Institutional Insights - Dongwu Futures noted that while overseas market exports remain loose, the recovery in East Asian chemical procurement provides support, leading to price stabilization. The overall import recovery in early August suggests potential for further price adjustments due to refinery gas costs and crude oil influences [3] - Ruida Futures highlighted a significant unexpected drop in U.S. crude oil inventories, indicating short-term tightness. However, expectations of OPEC+ production increases and geopolitical easing in regions like Gaza and Ukraine continue to suppress oil prices, maintaining a loose supply-demand balance. Domestic prices for both domestic and imported gas are rising, but downstream trading activity is declining due to price increases, although importers are showing increased willingness to arbitrage [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report Last week's unexpected US inflation data pressured gold and silver, and recent positive signals from US-Russia negotiations reduced geopolitical risks. The sharp increase in the US PPI in July cooled the expectation of a significant interest rate cut. Although the employment market's weakening supported the prices of gold and silver, the overall trade environment continued to deteriorate. The implementation of the "Big and Beautiful" bill increased the expectation of the US fiscal deficit, and the People's Bank of China continued to purchase gold. Gold and silver may show a volatile trend as the expectation of an interest rate cut rises [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - **Futures Market**: The prices of Shanghai gold and silver futures contracts all declined, with the decline rates of Shanghai gold futures at -0.32% and that of Shanghai silver futures at -1.37% and -1.35% respectively. The trading volume and open interest of each contract varied [2]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of spot gold and silver also decreased, with the decline rate of London silver reaching -1.66%. The price differences between different contracts and the ratios of Shanghai gold/silver to London gold/silver changed to varying degrees [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventories of gold and silver in the Shanghai Futures Exchange and COMEX changed, with the Shanghai Futures Exchange's silver inventory increasing by 11,020 kilograms and the COMEX's gold inventory decreasing by 17,425.86 ounces [2]. - **Related Derivatives and Macroeconomic Indicators**: The US dollar index rose by 0.13%, the S&P 500 index fell by -0.59%, the US Treasury yield decreased by -0.92%, and the positions of SPDR Gold ETF and SLV Silver ETF increased slightly [2]. Macro News - Trump stated that the US would help Ukraine defend but not send ground troops, and Ukraine would not be allowed to join NATO. The US planned a tripartite meeting among the US, Russia, and Ukraine in Budapest [3]. - The US Department of Commerce added 407 product categories to the steel and aluminum tariff list, with a tax rate of 50% [3]. - Japan and the US planned to closely discuss the implementation of a $550 billion investment in the US and set up a mechanism to verify national interests [3]. - The annualized monthly rate of new housing starts in the US in July increased by 5.2%, reaching 1.428 million units, higher than market expectations [3]. Comments and Strategies - The unexpected inflation data in the US last week pressured gold and silver, and the positive signals from US-Russia negotiations reduced geopolitical risks. The sharp increase in the US PPI in July cooled the expectation of a significant interest rate cut [4]. - Previously, the US Treasury Secretary believed that there was a high possibility of a 50 - basis - point interest rate cut in September, but the inflation data has changed this expectation [4]. - The employment market's weakening supported the prices of gold and silver, but the overall trade environment continued to deteriorate. The implementation of the "Big and Beautiful" bill increased the expectation of the US fiscal deficit, and the People's Bank of China continued to purchase gold. Gold and silver may show a volatile trend as the expectation of an interest rate cut rises [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas macro: The US economic fundamentals remain stable in the short - term, but there are employment and inflation pressures in the medium - term. High - interest rates impact consumption, there is a differentiation in CPI and PPI expectations, and inflation may rebound in autumn, affecting the Fed's decision - making. In the short - term, market risk appetite is expected to remain strong [6]. - Domestic macro: In July, the growth rate of economic data slowed down, with consumption, investment, and credit demand weakening. Exports were the main support for the domestic economy. August exports may remain resilient, but there may be pressure starting from September [6]. - Asset views: In late August, China enters the verification period of the seasonal peak of fixed - asset investment and consumption, and the global central bank summit is a game window for Fed policy. The rise of risk assets is driven by tariff and geopolitical risk mitigation and loose liquidity expectations. As economic growth slows, short - term market volatility may increase [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Essentials - Overseas: The US economic fundamentals are stable in the short - term, with pressure in the medium - term. High - interest rates affect consumption, CPI and PPI expectations are different, and inflation may rebound in autumn [6]. - Domestic: July economic data growth slowed, with exports as the main support. August exports may be resilient, but September may face pressure [6]. - Assets: Late August is a key period for investment, consumption, and Fed policy. Risk assets are driven by positive factors, and short - term market volatility may increase as the economy slows [6]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Financial - Stock index futures: Growth opportunities are spreading, and the short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend [7]. - Stock index options: An offensive strategy is recommended, with a short - term judgment of a volatile upward trend [7]. - Treasury bond futures: The bond market is still under pressure, with a short - term judgment of a volatile trend [7]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - Gold/Silver: Precious metals are expected to strengthen with volatility, with a short - term judgment of a volatile upward trend [7]. 3.2.3 Shipping - Container shipping to Europe: Attention is paid to the game between peak - season expectations and price - increase implementation, with a short - term judgment of a volatile trend [7]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials - Steel products: Inventory is accumulating, and prices are falling from high levels, with a short - term judgment of a volatile trend [7]. - Iron ore: Fundamentals are healthy, and prices are slightly回调 after sentiment cools, with a short - term judgment of a volatile trend [7]. - Other products (such as coke, coking coal, etc.): All are expected to show a volatile trend in the short - term [7]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - Copper, aluminum, etc.: Most metals are expected to show a volatile trend in the short - term, with factors such as supply, demand, and policies affecting prices [7]. - Industrial silicon: It is expected to show a volatile upward trend in the short - term [7]. - Lithium carbonate: It is expected to show a wide - range volatile trend in the short - term [7]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: Supply pressure exists, and the short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend [9]. - Other chemicals: Most are expected to show a volatile trend in the short - term, affected by factors such as supply, demand, and cost [9]. 3.2.7 Agriculture - Oils and fats: Palm oil is leading the rise, with a short - term judgment of a volatile upward trend [9]. - Other agricultural products: Most are expected to show a volatile trend in the short - term, affected by factors such as weather, supply, and demand [9].

来源：智昇财论 黄金方面：美国与俄罗斯的初步谈判已经结束，与市场预期基本一致，根本矛盾使得双方的谈判并未取 得实质性成果。双方实际谈判时间远超预期的5-6小时，随后俄罗斯总统快速离开，表明了对美国的不 信任，同时传递出信息：不愿按照美国的节奏行事。 原油方面：隔夜油价整体以震荡为主，多头虽有反击但力度较弱，操作上建议顺势高空为主。目前原油 基本面持续恶化，供需矛盾突出，在此背景下，油价很可能长期疲弱。 原油供应增加的预期也加大了油价的下行压力，美国能源信息署发布的月度短观能源展望报告显示，由 于油井生产率的提高，2025年美国页岩油产量将达到创纪录的1341万桶/日，较此前预期上调4万桶。此 外，OPEC月报显示，OPEC+7月原油产量增加33.5万桶至4194万桶/日，但该产量增长幅度低于此前 OPEC+8国达成的产量恢复协议。库存方面，美国原油库存增加也利空油价，EIA数据显示，截至8月8 日当周，包括战略储备在内的美国原油库存总量较一周前增加326.3万桶至8.299亿桶，美国商业原油库 存量较一周前增加303.7万桶至4.26698亿桶。 技术面：原油日线有冲击长期均线的动作，但明显上攻动能较弱，长期 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is currently awaiting guidance on future monetary easing paths, with short-term gold price expectations remaining volatile due to mixed signals from macroeconomic data and upcoming central bank meetings [1][2][4]. Group 1: Market Analysis - Huatai Futures indicates that the Jackson Hole global central bank meeting is crucial, as Fed Chair Powell's speech may not provide clear guidance on future interest rate paths, leading to a volatile gold price outlook [1]. - Zijin Tianfeng Futures notes that the delay in interest rate cuts could lead to a more optimistic outlook for gold, especially if the economy suffers due to delayed monetary easing [1][2]. - StoneX has raised its annual average gold price forecast by 1% to $3,115 per ounce, but expects limited upside unless a "black swan" event occurs, indicating market saturation [3]. Group 2: Central Bank Influence - Five Minerals Futures highlights that geopolitical risks have temporarily eased, negatively impacting gold prices, while Powell's upcoming speech is expected to significantly influence gold and silver price movements [2]. - Heraeus analysts report a decline in central bank gold demand, with the World Gold Council noting a drop to 166.5 tons in Q2 2025, the lowest since Q2 2022, but anticipate that potential Fed rate cuts could still drive gold prices higher [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - PX market is strong, and its cost supports PTA. PTA market shows a slight increase with a minor fluctuation in the spot basis. PTA processing fees are in the low - range, and new device production expectations on the supply side and lackluster demand in the off - season make it difficult for unplanned device maintenance to boost prices. PTA will move in a volatile manner with cost as the dominant factor [2]. - Polyester bottle - chip market in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions remains stable. The supply side of bottle - chips has low - level operations, with sufficient market spot supply. Downstream terminal procurement enthusiasm is average, and market sentiment is cautious [2]. - Without unexpected good news, it is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will operate in a volatile manner [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream** - On August 18, 2025, the futures settlement price of WTI crude oil was $63.42 per barrel, up 0.99% from the previous value; Brent crude oil was $66.60 per barrel, up 1.14%. The spot price of naphtha (CFR Japan) was $570.75 per ton, down 0.31%. The spot price of xylene (isomeric grade, FOB Korea) was $680.00 per ton, down 0.66% [1]. - **PTA Futures and Spot Prices** - On August 18, 2025, the closing price of CZCE TA main contract was 4746 yuan per ton, up 0.64%; the settlement price was 4726 yuan per ton, up 0.38%. The closing price of the near - month contract was 4696 yuan per ton, up 0.43%; the settlement price was 4680 yuan per ton, up 0.17%. The domestic spot price of PTA was 4659 yuan per ton, up 0.11% [1]. - **PX Futures and Spot Prices** - On August 18, 2025, the closing price of CZCE PX main contract was 6760 yuan per ton, up 1.08%; the settlement price was 6702 yuan per ton, up 0.30%. The closing price of the near - month contract was 6804 yuan per ton, up 0.71%; the settlement price was 6756 yuan per ton, up 0.24%. The domestic spot price of p - xylene was 6581 yuan per ton, unchanged [1]. - **PR Futures and Spot Prices** - On August 18, 2025, the closing price of CZCE PR main contract was 5928 yuan per ton, up 0.54%; the settlement price was 5896 yuan per ton, up 0.07%. The closing price of the near - month contract was 5856 yuan per ton, up 0.17%; the settlement price was 5844 yuan per ton, down 0.03%. The market price of polyester bottle - chips in the East China market was 5920 yuan per ton, up 0.34%; in the South China market, it was 5940 yuan per ton, up 0.17% [1]. - **Downstream Product Prices** - On August 18, 2025, the CCFEI price index of polyester staple fiber was 6475 yuan per ton, up 0.08%; the index of bottle - grade chips was 5920 yuan per ton, up 0.34%. Other downstream product price indices remained unchanged [2]. Operating Conditions - On August 18, 2025, the operating rate of PX in the polyester industry chain was 80.38%, unchanged; the PTA industry chain load rate of PTA plants was 77.67%, unchanged; the load rate of polyester plants was 87.30%, up 0.42%; the load rate of bottle - chip plants was 71.93%, unchanged; the load rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 57.80%, unchanged [1]. Production and Sales - On August 18, 2025, the sales - to - production ratio of polyester filament was 45.74%, up 9.42%; the sales - to - production ratio of polyester staple fiber was 40.41%, down 9.21%; the sales - to - production ratio of polyester chips was 75.00%, up 21.43% [1]. Device Information - Ningbo Taihua's 1.5 - million - ton PTA device started maintenance on August 7, expected to last 2 months. Yisheng Dalian's 2.25 - million - ton PTA device started maintenance on August 8, expected to last 1 month. Yisheng Hainan's 2 - million - ton PTA device is planned for technical transformation from August 15 for 3 months. Two 800,000 - ton PX devices in South China will be restarted soon [2]. Important News - The US - Russia meeting ended on Friday. Although no substantial agreement was reached, the cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine is expected to accelerate, and the expectation of US sanctions against Russia has relaxed, reducing geopolitical risks. The PX supply is recovering, and the current PX inventory is at a historical low, with strong bottom support [2].

Report Summary 1. Overnight Market Trends - Geopolitical risks pushed up crude oil prices. The main contract of US crude oil closed up 0.97% at $62.58 per barrel, and Brent crude oil rose 0.97% to $66.49 per barrel [3]. - International precious metal futures closed mixed. COMEX gold futures fell 0.14% to $3378.00 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures rose 0.24% to $38.07 per ounce [4]. - Most London base metals declined. LME aluminum dropped 0.71% to $2588.50 per ton, LME zinc fell 0.39% to $2784.00 per ton, and LME copper decreased 0.22% to $9752.00 per ton [5]. - Domestic futures contracts closed mixed. Rapeseed meal and PX rose over 1%, while coking coal dropped over 2% [5]. - US agricultural futures: soybeans fell 0.24%, corn declined 0.20%, soybean oil rose 0.11%, soybean meal dropped 1.06%, and wheat decreased 0.84% [6]. 2. Important News Macro News - The Ministry of Finance will conduct treasury bond market - making support operations to enhance secondary - market liquidity [9]. - As of August 18, 2025, the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index (European route) was 2180.17 points, down 2.5% from the previous period [10]. - China supports efforts for peaceful crisis resolution and welcomes Russia - US dialogue on the Ukraine issue [10]. - Premier Li Qiang emphasized enhancing macro - policy effectiveness, stabilizing market expectations, and boosting domestic consumption [10]. Energy and Chemical Futures - The Shanghai Futures Exchange announced that offset - printing paper futures will be launched on September 10, 2025, with specific trading rules [12]. - UBS lowered its Brent crude oil price forecast to $62 per barrel by the end of 2025 and March 2026 due to increased South American supply [14]. - A Russian refinery suspended production after a drone attack [15]. Metal Futures - A large recycled lead smelter in East China plans to halt production for a month, and a small one postponed restart [17]. - Indonesia will change its mining approval system from once every three years to once a year [17]. Black - Series Futures - Global iron ore shipments from August 11 - 17, 2025, totaled 34.066 million tons, up 3.599 million tons week - on - week [19]. - Steel inventories in 21 cities increased 2.3% in early August [21]. - Coking enterprises in Hebei and Shandong have more stringent production cuts than steel mills [21]. - Coke prices in Shandong are set to rise starting August 19 [21]. - Manganese ore inventories at major ports decreased by 23,000 tons [22]. - Premier Li Qiang stressed measures to stabilize the real - estate market [22]. Agricultural Futures - Malaysia's palm oil exports from August 1 - 15 increased 34.5% month - on - month [25]. - South Africa's sugarcane production in 2025 is expected to reach 17.7 million tons, up 7.47% [25]. - Domestic soybean crushing volume reached 2.34 million tons in the week ending August 15 [25]. - Malaysia's palm oil production from August 1 - 15 increased 0.88% month - on - month [25]. - Palm oil commercial inventories in key regions rose 2.92% week - on - week as of August 15 [26]. - Brazil's second - season corn harvest rate in the central - southern region reached 94% as of last Thursday [26]. - US private exporters sold 124,000 tons of corn for the 2025/2026 season [27]. - US soybean export inspections in the week ending August 14 were 473,605 tons [29]. - The US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 68% as of August 17 [29]. 3. Financial Markets Financial - The Shanghai Composite Index broke through 3700, driven by various types of funds [31]. - A - share market improvement led to increased brokerage account openings, with a 30% - 50% year - on - year increase [31]. - Multiple sources of incremental funds are flowing into the A - share market [31]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell 0.37%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index rose 0.65% [32]. - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange is researching a special voting channel for margin trading accounts [32]. - Tushare's service was interrupted due to a business dispute [32]. - Leapmotor achieved a net profit of 30 million yuan in H1 and raised its sales target [32]. Industry - The State Administration of Radio and Television will improve content supply in the broadcasting and TV sector [33]. - In July, the average price of second - hand homes in 100 cities dropped 0.77% month - on - month [33]. - Auto dealers faced losses in H1 2025, with a less optimistic outlook [35]. - 49 models from 13 auto companies met data - security requirements [36]. - China's smartphone market shipments declined 4.1% in Q2 2025 [36]. - The 2025 movie summer - vacation box office exceeded 10 billion yuan [36]. - The food cold - chain logistics demand reached 192 million tons in H1 2025, up 4.35% [36]. Overseas - The Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Symposium is awaited, with different expectations for Powell's speech [37]. - India plans a tax reform in response to potential US tariffs [37]. - Germany requires the US to lower auto tariffs for a broader trade deal [39]. International Stock Markets - US stocks closed mixed, with the Dow down 0.08%, S&P 500 down 0.01%, and Nasdaq up 0.03% [40]. - European stocks closed mixed, with Germany's DAX down 0.18%, France's CAC40 down 0.5%, and UK's FTSE 100 up 0.21% [40]. - Japan's stock market continued to rise, with the Nikkei 225 up 0.77% [40]. - Some Chinese concept stocks may be involved in "pump - and - dump" schemes [41]. - Douyu's Q2 revenue reached 1.054 billion yuan, up 2.1% year - on - year [42]. Commodities - Multiple futures and options will be launched on September 10, 2025 [44]. - Geopolitical risks drove up international oil prices [44]. - International precious metal futures closed mixed [44]. - London base metals mostly declined [44]. Bonds - Bond yields in China generally rose, and the central bank conducted reverse - repurchase operations [45]. - The trading association is investigating misappropriation of debt - financing funds [45]. - The central treasury cash - management deposit auction had a winning amount of 120 billion yuan at a 1.78% rate [47]. - The Ministry of Finance will conduct treasury - bond market - making support operations on August 19 [48]. - US Treasury yields mostly increased [48]. Foreign Exchange - China and Thailand renewed a currency - swap agreement [49]. - The on - shore RMB strengthened against the US dollar on Monday [50]. - The US dollar index rose 0.31% in New York trading [50]. 4. Upcoming Events - Key economic data releases include euro - zone June current account, Canada's July CPI, etc. [53] - Multiple events are scheduled for August 19, including central - bank operations, conferences, and corporate earnings announcements [55]