本文字数：913，阅读时长大约1分钟 作者 | 第一财经 陆如意 2026年的首次成品油调价以搁浅告终。 据国家发展和改革委1月6日傍晚消息，自2025年12月22日国内成品油价格调整以来，国际市场油价 小幅波动。按现行国内成品油价格机制测算，2026年1月6日的前10个工作日平均价格与2025年12 月22日前10个工作日平均价格相比，调价金额每吨不足50元。根据《石油价格管理办法》第七条规 定，本次汽、柴油价格不作调整，未调金额纳入下次调价时累加或冲抵。 2026.01. 06 隆众资讯日前发布的数据显示，截至2026年1月4日，本轮调价周期内参考原油均价为60.24美元/ 桶，较上一周期上涨0.76%，预计调价窗口开启时，对应成品油上调幅度在30元/吨附近，位于50元/ 吨的调价红线以下。 国内成品油的价格锚定全球原油价格。业内分析，2026年全球原油市场被间歇性凸显的地缘风险和 供需结构偏弱两大多空因素来回拉扯。 虽短期内地缘风险或占据主导，但目前全球供应过剩的担忧依然存在。据国际能源署（IEA）预测， 全年原油市场日均过剩量将达380万桶至409万桶，占全球需求的4%，供应过剩格局成为市场运行主 基 ...

Group 1 - The fuel costs for residents' driving and logistics transportation will remain unchanged in the next half month due to the decision to not adjust fuel prices in early January 2026 [1] - The average price of crude oil during the current pricing cycle is reported at $60.24 per barrel, with a slight increase of 0.76% compared to the previous cycle, indicating a potential price adjustment of around 30 yuan per ton, which is below the 50 yuan adjustment threshold [1] - The domestic fuel prices are anchored to global crude oil prices, influenced by geopolitical risks and weak supply-demand structures in the global oil market [1] Group 2 - The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts a daily surplus of crude oil in the market ranging from 3.8 million to 4.09 million barrels for the year, accounting for 4% of global demand, establishing a supply surplus as the main market trend [2] - OPEC+ has announced that it will maintain its production plan established in November 2025 and will continue to suspend production increases in February and March 2026 [2] - The next retail fuel price adjustment window will open on January 20, 2026, with a high probability of price increases due to ongoing supply risks from geopolitical tensions and OPEC+ decisions [3] Group 3 - The demand for oil is expected to be supported by the festive atmosphere in the West and the cold winter weather in the Northern Hemisphere [4]

Core Viewpoint - The current rise in gold prices is driven by ongoing geopolitical risks and expectations of economic slowdown prompting interest rate cuts, creating a dual support for gold as a safe-haven asset [2][3]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The US dollar index has retreated from high levels, trading around 98.314, while gold prices are at $4461.06 per ounce, reflecting a 0.29% increase, with a high of $4475.46 and a low of $4426.09 [1]. - Geopolitical tensions, particularly the US military actions against Venezuela, have heightened risk aversion, leading to increased investment in gold and other safe-haven assets [2]. - Weak US ISM manufacturing PMI data for December has reinforced market expectations for an early interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which has pressured the dollar and supported gold prices [2]. Group 2: Future Outlook - The current upward trend in gold prices is based on the assumptions of sustained geopolitical risks and economic slowdown necessitating rate cuts, indicating a fragile foundation for this rise [3]. - The market is entering a critical verification period where the sustainability of the trend will depend on upcoming economic data supporting the narrative of monetary easing [3]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - The recent surge in gold prices is attributed to heightened risk aversion following the arrest of Venezuela's president, which has provided strong upward momentum for gold [4]. - Technical indicators show that gold prices are currently above the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, with a clear bullish arrangement in the moving averages [5]. - Key support levels for gold are identified at $4400, while resistance is seen at $4480, with the market currently fluctuating between $4420 and $4460 [6].

南华期货（603093）： 原油端，市场依然对地缘风险给与了一定的溢价，对比美委冲突，伊朗的风险对于lpg市场来说更为直 接。丙烷方面，在过去一周中东发运依然偏低，但美国库存出现了逆季节性上涨仍给价格带来一些压 力。从国内本期基本面来看，供应端本期依然偏紧，港口到港量低点，港库连续去化。需求端整体变动 不大，化工需求依然持稳，PDH端虽维持亏损状态，但开工仍上行至76.36%，短期依然没有检修反 馈。短期关注下海外事件的后续以及国内PDH可能的检修。 瑞达期货（002961）： 短期地缘局势、OPEC+暂停增产及对未来供应过剩担忧等多空交织，国际油价震荡。LPG国际方面， 中东供应较为有限而远东需求旺季，仍对液化气价格起支撑作用。供应方面，部分炼厂装置运行不稳定 及部分炼厂外放增加，整体供应出现回升。短期港口到船量减少，叠加气温下降促使燃烧需求增强，港 口库存呈下降趋势，但本周预计码头到船有增量，港口库存有增加预期。需求方面，临近元旦民用气有 补库意愿，但预计跟进有限。综合来看，短期整体供需压力不大，但库存增加预期，原油走势反复，液 化气预计震荡为主。从技术面看，PG主力合约隔夜震荡收涨，上方关注4250附近 ...

昨天4432附近，再次空获利。 黄金暴力开局，直接闪击4400的关口，一路连涨，整体涨幅超130美金，今天多头不改，续涨箭指4500 的关口。 今天的走势 昨天一路暴走，美盘闪跌后。 再次V转，到今天延续上涨。 而且涨破4460，涨势不停。 继续看涨延续，上方看向4500的关口。 再次决战这个位置，再上破，看向4550的阻力。 当然了，面临此关口。 再次遇阻，下方调整，可再探4448的位置。 短期调整，站稳此位置上方，继续看涨不变。 下方若持续回调，跌破了4448，继续看向4400的关口，进入修正。 黄金10月疯狂跳水后，一路回升，到12月修复跌幅，冲顶新高后，再次跳水收官。每次的跳水，都迎来 回升新高，到本月又迎来爬坡模式，上方空间，可看向4550的历史高位。当然了，下方再次大的调整， 可再看向4300的关口。 操作方面，黄金再次走强，一路看涨为主，关注4448和4400做多的机会。此外，黄金上方面临关键阻 力，关注4500和4550做空的机会。 昨天主要因素： 一方面，地缘风险突袭，美闪击委，再次点燃了一个新的恐慌，直接牵扯到全球的秩序稳定。同时，中 东火药库也是蠢蠢欲动，避险需求急剧升温，利好黄金大涨。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that the oil ETF (561360) has seen a net inflow for five consecutive days, with rising geopolitical risks potentially supporting oil prices [1] - China is one of the main buyers of Venezuelan oil, with over 70% of Venezuela's oil exports directed to China, accounting for approximately 7% of China's total imports [1] - The recent U.S. attack on Venezuela may lead to a short-term supply gap in domestic heavy oil, which could result in a decline in refinery operating rates and an expected decrease in supply, potentially driving up prices for diesel and asphalt [1] Group 2 - The oil ETF (561360) tracks the oil and gas industry index (H30198), which selects listed company securities involved in oil and gas exploration, extraction, processing, and related services to reflect the overall performance of the oil and gas sector [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The geopolitical impact on the crude oil market is limited, with crude oil prices falling and the atmosphere in the bulk chemical market being weak. The downstream polyester production and sales are dull, and the PTA market is also declining [2]. - The PX market has experienced a rapid rise, mainly driven by speculative funds. Although there are concerns about bubbles, the PX fundamentals are supported, and the market is expected to remain tight in 2026 [2]. - Domestic PTA maintains high - level operation, and the polyester demand is affected by the domestic season but the polyester factory's production cuts are not enough to form a negative feedback [2]. - Overseas MEG device maintenance plans are increasing, but with the continuous decline of coal prices and the increase of new device production, the MEG market is under pressure, and its price may be supported by domestic policies under the carbon - neutral background [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Market Price and Index Changes - INE crude oil price dropped from 432.2 yuan/barrel on December 31, 2025, to 421.7 yuan/barrel on January 5, 2026, a decrease of 10.5 yuan/barrel [2]. - PTA - SC increased from 1969.2 yuan/ton to 1981.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 12.3 yuan/ton [2]. - PTA/SC ratio rose from 1.6270 to 1.6466, an increase of 0.0196 [2]. - CFR China PX price decreased from 894 to 884, a decrease of 10 [2]. - PX - naphtha spread decreased from 364 to 354, a decrease of 10 [2]. - PTA main contract futures price dropped from 5110 yuan/ton to 5046 yuan/ton, a decrease of 64 yuan/ton [2]. - PTA spot price dropped from 5095 yuan/ton to 5030 yuan/ton, a decrease of 65 yuan/ton [2]. - Spot processing fee decreased from 344.9 yuan/ton to 343.0 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.9 yuan/ton [2]. - Disk processing fee decreased from 374.9 yuan/ton to 359.0 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15.9 yuan/ton [2]. - MEG main contract futures price dropped from 3803 yuan/ton to 3732 yuan/ton, a decrease of 71 yuan/ton [2]. - MEG - naphtha increased from - 141.47 yuan/ton to - 140.79 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.7 yuan/ton [2]. - MEG domestic price dropped from 3681 yuan/ton to 3640 yuan/ton, a decrease of 41 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Industry Chain Start - up Situation - PX start - up rate increased from 86.28% to 87.87%, an increase of 1.59 percentage points [2]. - PTA start - up rate remained unchanged at 77.40% [2]. - MEG start - up rate increased from 60.58% to 60.81%, an increase of 0.23 percentage points [2]. - Polyester load remained unchanged at 88.10% [2]. 3.3 Product Sales and Cash Flow in the Polyester Industry 3.3.1 Polyester Filament - POY150D/48F price remained unchanged at 6505, and its cash flow increased from - 334 to - 265, an increase of 69 [2]. - FDY150D/96F price remained unchanged at 6755, and its cash flow increased from - 584 to - 515, an increase of 69 [2]. - DTY150D/48F price remained unchanged at 7745, and its cash flow increased from - 294 to - 225, an increase of 69 [2]. - Polyester filament production and sales increased from 31% to 50%, an increase of 19 percentage points [2]. 3.3.2 Polyester Staple Fiber - 1.4D direct - spinning polyester staple fiber price dropped from 6545 to 6510, a decrease of 35 [2]. - Polyester staple fiber cash flow increased from 56 to 90, an increase of 34 [2]. - Polyester staple fiber production and sales decreased from 59% to 53%, a decrease of 6 percentage points [2]. 3.3.3 Polyester Chip - Semi - bright chip price dropped from 5755 to 5730, a decrease of 25 [2]. - Chip cash flow increased from - 184 to - 140, an increase of 44 [2]. - Chip production and sales decreased from 67% to 47%, a decrease of 20 percentage points [2]. 3.4 Device Maintenance Dynamics - A 1.2 - million - ton PTA device in the northwest was restarted after shutting down at the beginning of last week [4].

2026年01月06日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：避险情绪回升 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：高位盘整 | 2 | | 铜：做多情绪浓厚，价格持续上涨 | 4 | | 锌：震荡偏强 | 6 | | 铅：库存减少，支撑价格 | 8 | | 锡：区间震荡 | 9 | | 铝：继续补涨 | 11 | | 氧化铝：小幅下跌 | 11 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 11 | | 铂：震荡偏上 | 13 | | 钯：区间震荡 | 13 | | 镍：现实压力背负与周期转变叙事博弈，宽幅震荡 | 16 | | 不锈钢：现实基本面拖累，盘面博弈印尼政策为主 | 16 | 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 2026 年 1 月 6 日 黄金：避险情绪回升 白银：高位盘整 产 业 服 务 研 究 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 商 品 研 究 贵金属基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | ...

原油成品油早报 研究中心能化团队 2026/01/06 | 日期 | WTI | BRENT | DUBAI | diff FOB dated bre | BRENT 1- 2月差 | WTI-BREN T | DUBAI-B RT（EFS | NYMEX RB OB | RBOB-BR T | NYMEX HO | HO-BRT | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | nt | | | | | | | | | 2025/12/26 | 56.74 | 60.64 | 61.86 | - | 0.40 | -3.90 | 0.68 | 169.71 | 10.64 | 210.70 | 27.85 | | 2025/12/29 | 58.08 | 61.94 | 62.02 | - | 0.45 | -3.86 | 0.73 | 171.52 | 10.10 | 212.75 | 27.42 | | 2025/12/30 | 57.95 | 61.33 | 62.02 | - | ...

来源：赛博AI实验室 本文基于以下微博话题的智搜结果生成 国际金价在2026年1月5日亚市早盘直线飙涨，现货黄金强势突破4400美元/盎司关口，最高触及4420美 元，国内金饰品牌如周生生、老庙黄金的足金饰品价格单日暴涨22元/克至1376元/克，30克金镯成本较 前一日激增660元以上。 一、价格暴涨核心数据 国际金价 现货黄金最高触及4420美元/盎司，日内涨幅达1.55%，纽约期金同步冲高至4420美元，创历史峰值。 国内金饰 周生生、老庙等品牌足金饰品挂牌价达1376-1377元/克，较前一日暴涨20-22元/克，60克黄金总价从 2025年初的3.6万元飙升至8.25万元，婚庆群体直呼"买不起三金"。 涨势特征 早盘呈现陡峭直线拉升，技术面突破4380美元关键阻力位后触发程序化买盘，国内金饰较国际金价溢价 约30%（含工费）。 二、直线拉升的核心动因 地缘风险激化避险需求 美国1月3日凌晨对委内瑞拉发起代号"绝对决心行动"的军事突袭，控制总统马杜罗夫妇并移送纽约受 审，特朗普宣称"美国需要格陵兰岛"，引发全球对单边军事干预的担忧，多国强烈谴责。 全球央行2025年购金量达830吨，中国连续12个月增 ...