Core Viewpoint - The inflation situation is more concerning than the employment market, according to the President of the Atlanta Federal Reserve, Bostic, who is a voting member of the FOMC in 2027 [1] Group 1 - There is a hope that a stronger economy will alleviate pressures in the labor market [1] - Federal Reserve policies are not effective in addressing structural changes in employment [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has room to lower interest rates gradually due to a weakening job market, aiming to balance inflation control and employment support [1][2][3] Group 1: Interest Rate Policy - The current interest rates are 50 to 100 basis points above neutral levels, indicating ample room for adjustment without a crisis [3] - The Fed can adopt a moderate pace for rate cuts, avoiding aggressive actions [2][3] Group 2: Labor Market Assessment - The job market is described as "very weak," with growth near zero, but there is no indication of a sudden collapse [4] - Previous rate cuts have positively impacted the job market, suggesting continued rate reductions are warranted [4] Group 3: Inflation Outlook - Inflation is under control, with expectations of further decline in the coming months, despite current rates being above target [5] - Stable inflation expectations provide a basis for policy adjustments, allowing for rate cuts without relying solely on economic deterioration [5] Group 4: Balance Sheet and External Risks - Recent asset purchases by the Fed are not considered stimulative, and the banking reserves are at adequate levels [6] - External risks from tariffs are viewed as limited, and the interaction between the Fed and government is deemed appropriate [6]

美联储官员沃勒：我们并未看到就业市场崩溃。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Core Insights - The employment market is currently very weak, with poor job growth reported by Federal Reserve Governor Waller [1] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts have had a positive impact on the employment market [1] Group 1 - The current job growth situation is not satisfactory, indicating a sluggish employment market [1] - Federal Reserve's actions to lower interest rates are aimed at providing support to the struggling employment sector [1]

这份因联邦政府"停摆"延迟发布的报告，充分显示了"停摆"对就业市场的影响。数据显示，美国11月新 增就业岗位6.4万个，但由于一些接受延迟辞职方案的联邦雇员最终离职，自9月以来，联邦政府岗位已 缩减10.5万个。薪资增长同样放缓。11月平均时薪同比增长3.5%，是2021年5月以来的最低增速。 为支持劳动力市场，上周，美联储连续第三次降息。但为了平衡稳就业和降通胀两大关键目标，多数美 联储官员预计，2026年，美联储仅降息一次。 不过，本次数据发布后，华尔街普遍预计，美国就业下行风险或继续上升，美联储可能将不得不进行两 次降息。 东方卫视记者李源清指出，这两份报告毕竟是在停摆后"补交作业"，统计过程被打乱，数据里有多少是 真实趋势、多少是停摆造成的波动，今天很难下定论。接下来市场和白宫最关注的，是恢复正常节奏后 的下一份就业报告，如果后续数据继续走弱，那就说明经济降温不是偶发，而是正在形成趋势。 美国劳工部16日一次性公布了10月和11月的非农就业数据，显示美国11月就业增长依然疲弱，失业率升 至4.6%，创四年来最高水平。 看看新闻记者: 李源清 编辑: 杜吉 责编: 陈砚青 ...

Core Viewpoint - Investors are showing indifference towards the upcoming November inflation report, contrasting with previous anxieties, as the Federal Reserve's focus has shifted more towards labor market weakness than minor fluctuations in inflation rates [2][3]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Expectations - Option traders expect the S&P 500 index to fluctuate within a range of ±0.7%, significantly lower than the average 1% volatility observed after the release of previous inflation reports this year [2]. - The November inflation report's timeliness is considered weaker than usual due to its delay and the impact of government shutdowns on data collection, leading to concerns about its reliability [2][3]. - Market consensus suggests that the inflation data will either be inconsequential or of questionable quality, thus not becoming a focal point for market attention [2][3]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Policy Outlook - The upcoming report is not expected to alter the Federal Reserve's decision at the January policy meeting, with a general belief that rates will remain unchanged as officials await more reliable economic data [3][8]. - The Federal Reserve has recently completed its third consecutive 25 basis point rate cut, indicating a cautious approach towards monetary policy amid ongoing labor market challenges [3][8]. - There is a notable focus on employment risks among Federal Reserve officials, with some expressing concerns about inflation pressures despite the prevailing emphasis on labor market conditions [3][8]. Group 3: Inflation Rate Predictions - Analysts expect the year-over-year inflation rate to remain around 3%, with potential surprises if the data deviates significantly from this expectation, either upwards to 3.5% or downwards to 2.7% or lower [4][9]. - The importance of the consumer price index report has diminished partly due to the impending term expiration of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, with expectations that his successor may favor aggressive rate cuts regardless of economic data [4][9][10]. Group 4: Market Trends and Stock Performance - The S&P 500 index has experienced a decline for three consecutive days, closing just 1.5% below its previous all-time high, indicating a potential bullish sentiment among traders as they anticipate a rise to new highs [5][10].

作者：招商银行研究院 纽约分行 11月美国新增非农就业人数6.4万（市场预期5.0万），10月新增就业人数则因联邦政府裁员而大幅下降10.5 万；11月失业率升至4.6%（市场预期4.5%），劳动参与率小幅上升至62.5%（市场预期62.4%），平均时薪同 比增速减速至3.5%（市场预期3.6%）。10月失业率及其它家庭调查数据因政府停摆永久缺失。 图1：11月美国失业率陡峭上行至4.6% 资料来源：MACROBOND、招商银行研究院 失业率陡峭上行更多来自暂时性因素扰动，从数据细节看就业市场仍有韧性，可能已经接近本轮周期底部。供 给扩张受到保守移民政策与老龄化的双重限制，移民劳工增长已经陷入停滞，黄金年龄段劳动参与率则较疫前 高出1.6pct，失业上行阻力越来越大。需求收缩同样缺乏长期持续的基础，政府裁员及停摆的冲击告一段落， 关税对相关行业的影响亦在衰减，职位空缺数已于8月见底回升。 图2：供给增加是失业率边际上行的重要原因 资料来源：MACROBOND、招商银行研究院 图3：黄金年龄段劳动参与率或已达峰 资料来源：MACROBOND、招商银行研究院 "双目标"前景符合预期，美联储大概率按计划放缓降息节奏 ...

Employment Data Summary - In November, the U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 64,000, slightly above the expected 50,000, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, higher than the anticipated 4.5%[1] - The October non-farm payrolls were revised to a decrease of 105,000 due to significant federal government employee losses during the government shutdown[1] - The September non-farm payrolls were also revised down from 119,000 to 108,000[1] Sector Performance - In November, the goods-producing sector added 19,000 jobs, with construction contributing 28,000 jobs, indicating a recovery in the housing cycle[2] - The service sector added 50,000 jobs, down from 61,000 in the previous month, with notable declines in transportation, warehousing, and leisure and hospitality sectors[2] - Government employment continued to decline, with a loss of 5,000 jobs in November following a loss of 157,000 in October[2] Economic Impact of Government Shutdown - The October government shutdown had broader impacts beyond government employment, affecting private sector job growth, which fell from 104,000 in September to 52,000 in October[3] - Retail sales in October showed no growth, indicating a temporary contraction in overall economic demand due to the shutdown[3] Labor Market Dynamics - The labor force participation rate increased to 62.5% in November, up from 62.4% in October, driven by a rise in employment among the 16-24 age group[4] - Job vacancy rates remained stable at 4.6%, suggesting a slight easing in recruitment demand[4] Unemployment Trends - The U6 unemployment rate rose significantly to 8.7% from 8.0% in September, with part-time employment due to economic reasons increasing to 7.831 million[5] - Initial claims for unemployment benefits rose to 236,000, indicating a potential increase in unemployment risks[5] Market Reactions and Future Outlook - Following the employment data release, market expectations for interest rate cuts in 2026 increased slightly, with the average expected cut rising from 55.4 basis points to 59.3 basis points[6] - The likelihood of a rate cut in March 2026 rose from 49.5% to 53.2%, reflecting growing confidence in potential monetary easing[6]

Macro News - The New York Fed President Williams stated that the recent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve positions it well to address future challenges, believing that inflation will decline as the job market cools [1] - Williams noted that the Fed's recent rate cut shifted its policy stance from moderately restrictive to neutral, asserting that the impact of tariffs on prices is likely to be one-time [1] - Boston Fed President Collins expressed support for the Fed's recent rate cut decision due to changes in the inflation outlook [1] - Fed Governor Milan indicated that the Fed's past purchases of mortgage-backed securities have injected significant credit into the housing market, potentially exacerbating current housing affordability issues [1] - CNBC reported that some aides to President Trump oppose the candidacy of Powell's potential successor, Hasset, due to concerns over his close relationship with the President [1] - Milan commented that financial markets are more concerned with the actual outcomes of Fed policies rather than the motivations of officials or their relationships with the President [1] Housing Market - U.S. homebuilder confidence rose to its highest level in eight months at 39 in December, but construction activity remains constrained by rising building costs due to import tariffs [2] - The confidence index has been below the neutral level of 50 for 20 consecutive months, with economic uncertainty and potential homebuyers hesitating due to affordability issues also contributing to the slowdown [2] Employment Data - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for November showed a complex signal with an increase of 64,000 jobs, surpassing market expectations of 45,000, but the previous month's figure was significantly revised down to a loss of 105,000 [2] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, higher than expected and the highest since September 2021, indicating a cooling labor market despite apparent resilience [2] - The combination of upward revisions in job numbers, rising unemployment, and downward adjustments in historical data suggests a gradual cooling of the job market [2] - Weak labor market data typically supports gold and silver prices, as it reinforces market expectations for Fed rate cuts, putting pressure on the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields [2] - However, persistent inflation and economic resilience keep the Fed's stance cautious, leading to high uncertainty regarding a potential rate cut in January [2] - The market is likely to experience a high-level oscillation pattern, awaiting further economic data and clearer signals from the Fed regarding policy direction [2]

Group 1 - The international gold price is currently trading around $4,330, with a recent increase of 0.74%, reaching a high of $4,334.23 and a low of $4,300.39, indicating a short-term oscillating trend in the market [1] - The U.S. non-farm payroll report for November shows a job increase of only 64,000, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.6%, the highest since 2021, highlighting a weakening job market [2] - The healthcare and construction sectors are supporting job growth, while the federal government and transportation sectors are contracting, reflecting mixed industry performance [2] Group 2 - The gold market is experiencing volatility, with silver prices reaching new highs, indicating a divergence in market performance [3] - The non-farm employment data exceeded expectations, but the unexpected rise in the unemployment rate has been a key factor for the increase in gold prices [3] - The market has shown a pattern of early morning upward movements over the past three trading days, but caution is advised as the market remains in a state of oscillation [3]