Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillating," with short - term prices expected to be on the stronger side [2][6]. Core Viewpoints - Macro - favorable news such as "anti - involution," Shanxi's crude steel reduction, and "urban renewal" has fermented, leading to a significant upward movement in prices. The market is dominated by macro - policy imagination during the off - season. The fundamentals have no significant contradictions, and the rally in the futures market has spurred downstream restocking, causing spot prices to rise in resonance. In the short term, prices are expected to run strongly [1][2]. - The expectation of a new round of supply - side reform for steel is increasing, and the warming market sentiment has spurred speculative demand, forming a positive feedback for the industrial chain. Against the backdrop of decent spot fundamentals, the futures market is expected to run strongly. Attention should be paid to policy implementation and off - season demand [6]. Summary by Directory Iron Element - Overseas mines have basically ended their end - of - quarter volume rush this week, with a decline in shipments. The arrival volume at 45 ports has slightly increased but fallen short of expectations, and there may be a concentrated arrival in the next 1 - 2 weeks. Steel mills' profitability has slightly improved, and the iron - making volume has decreased but remains at a high level year - on - year. Due to the lower - than - expected arrivals and high demand, port inventories have slightly decreased, and the overall supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. The market sentiment is good, and the futures price is expected to run strongly with oscillations [2]. Carbon Element - In Shanxi, the coal mines affected by previous accidents are gradually resuming supply, but some mines in Shanxi and Shaanxi are still reducing production. Overall, supply is slowly recovering. At the import end, the Mongolia - China border will be closed for 5 days starting tomorrow due to the Naadam Festival, but recent customs clearance has been at a high level, and port transactions are good. On the demand side, coke production has slightly decreased, and there is still short - term rigid demand for coking coal. Downstream procurement sentiment is positive, and the coking coal trading atmosphere is good. The overall supply - demand contradiction is not prominent at present, and attention should be paid to coal mine resumption and Mongolian coal imports [3]. Alloys Manganese Silicon - The sharp rise in coking coal futures prices has raised expectations of an increase in energy prices, strengthening the cost support for manganese silicon. Recently, the sentiment in the black chain has been positive, and the news of peak - period power rationing and the cancellation of electricity subsidies in Ningxia has caused the manganese silicon futures price to open and close higher, but this news has been proven false. Port inventories have slightly increased, and with the arrival of low - priced ores in the future, there is still room for ore prices to decline. The supply - demand relationship of manganese silicon is becoming looser, and it is more difficult to reduce inventories. In the short term, the futures price is expected to fluctuate with the sector [3][6]. Ferrosilicon - The supply - demand relationship of ferrosilicon is relatively healthy. In the short term, the futures price is expected to fluctuate with the sector. However, there is a possibility of filling the supply - demand gap in the future, increasing the difficulty of inventory reduction. Attention should be paid to the adjustment of ferrosilicon's electricity cost [6]. Glass - The news of stronger - than - expected urban renewal and a high - level urban renewal meeting has driven up the futures price. In the off - season, demand is declining, and deep - processing demand has continued to weaken. Although downstream restocking at the beginning of the month has led to good production and sales, the sustainability is to be observed. There are still 3 production lines waiting to produce glass, and daily melting is still on the rise. Upstream inventories have slightly decreased, and there are many market sentiment disturbances. The market is waiting and seeing, and the long - term over - supply pattern is difficult to change. Enterprises are advised to seize the short - term positive feedback hedging opportunities [6]. Steel - The supply - side contraction expectation formed by the "anti - involution" policy and Shanxi's production - limit news, as well as the demand - side improvement expectation such as "urban renewal," have jointly promoted the futures market to be strong. After the futures rally, spot trading sentiment has improved. This week, the supply and demand of rebar have both decreased, and inventory has continued to decline; the supply and demand of hot - rolled coils have both decreased, and inventory has slightly increased; the supply and demand of the five major steel products have both decreased, and inventory changes are limited, with the absolute inventory at a relatively low level over the years. In the short term, with the warming of the macro - sentiment and no obvious negative factors in the fundamentals, steel prices are expected to run strongly. Attention should be paid to policy implementation and off - season demand [9]. Iron Ore - The port trading volume has decreased. From the fundamental perspective, overseas mines have basically ended their end - of - quarter volume rush this week, with a decline in shipments. The arrival volume at 45 ports has slightly increased but fallen short of expectations, and there may be a concentrated arrival in the next 1 - 2 weeks. Steel mills' profitability has slightly improved, and the iron - making volume has decreased but remains at a high level year - on - year. Due to the lower - than - expected arrivals and high demand, port inventories have slightly decreased, and the overall supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. With good market sentiment and decent fundamentals, the futures price is expected to run strongly with oscillations. Before the market sentiment weakens, the price is likely to rise rather than fall [9][10]. Scrap Steel - The fundamentals are stable, and the price is oscillating. The apparent demand and production of rebar have slightly decreased, in line with off - season characteristics, and the total inventory has continued to decline, indicating some resilience in off - season demand. After the market sentiment has warmed up, raw material prices have risen significantly, and the futures price has oscillated upward. This week, the average daily arrival volume of scrap steel has slightly increased but is still lower than the same period last year, and resources are slightly tight. After the rise in steel prices, the profitability of some electric furnaces has recovered, and the daily consumption of scrap steel in electric furnaces has slightly increased; the iron - making volume of blast furnaces has slightly decreased, and the daily consumption of scrap steel in long - process production has also decreased. Although the arrival volume has slightly increased this week, the daily consumption is at a relatively high level in the same period, and factory inventories have slightly decreased [10]. Coke - The futures price of coke has strengthened following coking coal. On the supply side, most coke enterprises are maintaining normal production, while a small number of enterprises with poor profitability have reduced production, and coke production has slightly decreased. On the demand side, the average daily iron - making volume has decreased this week but remains at a high level year - on - year. Steel mills' profitability is good, and they are actively restocking. Recently, the futures market has been strong, and arbitrage demand has been actively purchasing, leading to a rapid reduction in coke inventories of coke enterprises. The current supply - demand pattern of coke has further improved. In the short term, coke prices are likely to rise rather than fall under the strong pull of raw coal prices [10][11][13]. Coking Coal - Market sentiment has been high, and coking coal prices have continued to rise. On the supply side, coal mines affected by previous accidents in Shanxi are gradually resuming supply, but some mines in Shanxi and Shaanxi are still reducing production, and overall supply is slowly recovering. At the import end, the Mongolia - China border will be closed for 5 days starting tomorrow due to the Naadam Festival, but recent customs clearance has been at a high level, and port transactions are good. On the demand side, coke production has slightly decreased, and there is still short - term rigid demand for coking coal. Downstream procurement sentiment is positive, and the coking coal trading atmosphere is good. The overall supply - demand contradiction is not prominent at present, and attention should be paid to coal mine resumption and Mongolian coal imports. Upstream coal mines are still reducing inventories, and the positive market sentiment remains, so the futures market is expected to be supported in the short term [11][12][13]. Glass - The news of stronger - than - expected urban renewal has driven up the futures price. In the off - season, demand is declining, and deep - processing demand has continued to weaken. Although downstream restocking at the beginning of the month has led to good production and sales, the sustainability is to be observed. There are still 3 production lines waiting to produce glass, and daily melting is still on the rise. Upstream inventories have slightly decreased, and there are many market sentiment disturbances. The market is waiting and seeing. In the short term, one should wait and see the pace and intensity of policy introduction. If policies continue to exceed expectations, downstream expectations may improve, leading to a wave of restocking and price increases. In the long run, market - oriented capacity reduction is still needed, and the market is expected to oscillate [14]. Soda Ash - The supply - side over - supply pattern has not changed. The market has spread the news of "anti - involution" in the photovoltaic industry, with an expected significant reduction in daily melting, and the current daily melting of photovoltaic glass has slightly decreased, and the demand for heavy soda ash has flattened, with weak demand expectations. The downstream demand for light soda ash is weak, and manufacturers have continued to cut prices. Sentiment is interfering with the futures market, and the long - term over - supply pattern is difficult to change. Although the short - term "anti - involution" sentiment has driven up the futures price, the over - supply problem still exists after the positive feedback. Enterprises are advised to seize the short - term positive feedback hedging opportunities. In July, there are planned maintenance activities, and in the short term, it is expected to oscillate. In the long run, the price center will continue to decline to promote capacity reduction [6][14][16]. Manganese Silicon - The sharp rise in coking coal futures prices has raised expectations of an increase in energy prices, strengthening the cost support for manganese silicon. Recently, the sentiment in the black chain has been positive, and the news of peak - period power rationing and the cancellation of electricity subsidies in Ningxia has caused the manganese silicon futures price to open and close higher, but this news has been proven false. Port inventories have slightly increased, and with the arrival of low - priced ores in the future, there is still room for ore prices to decline. The supply - demand relationship of manganese silicon is becoming looser, and it is more difficult to reduce inventories. In the short term, the futures price is expected to fluctuate with the sector [3][6][16]. Ferrosilicon - The sharp rise in coking coal futures prices has raised expectations of an increase in energy prices, strengthening the cost support for ferrosilicon. Recently, the sentiment in the black chain has been positive, and the news of peak - period power rationing and the cancellation of electricity subsidies in Ningxia and Qinghai has caused the ferrosilicon futures price to rise strongly, but this news has been proven false. During the steel tender period, the amount of low - priced goods in the market has decreased, and the strong futures market has driven up the spot price. The cost support for ferrosilicon has weakened. The supply of ferrosilicon is increasing. The downstream demand for steelmaking remains resilient. Attention should be paid to the price of this round of steel tenders. The current supply - demand relationship of ferrosilicon is relatively healthy. In the short term, the futures price is expected to fluctuate with the sector. However, there is a possibility of filling the supply - demand gap in the future, increasing the difficulty of inventory reduction. Attention should be paid to the adjustment of ferrosilicon's electricity cost [18][19].

其 他 报 告 2025年07月11日 晨会纪要 | 国内市场 | | 涨跌幅（%） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数 | 收盘 | 1日 | 上周 | | 上证综合指数 | 3510 | 0.48 | 1.40 | | 深证成份指数 | 10631 | 0.47 | 1.25 | | 沪深300指数 | 4010 | 0.47 | 1.54 | | 创业板指数 | 2190 | 0.22 | 1.50 | | 上证国债指数 | 226 | -0.02 | 0.16 | | 上证基金指数 | 6949 | 0.06 | 0.16 | 资料来源:同花顺iFinD | 海外市场 | | 涨跌幅（%） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数 | 收盘 | 1日 | 上周 | | 中国香港恒生指数 | 24028 | 0.57 | -1.52 | | 中国香港国企指数 | 8668 | 0.83 | -1.75 | | 中国台湾加权指数 | 22693 | 0.74 | -0.14 | | 道琼斯指数 | 44458 | 0.49 | 2.30 | | ...

【市场数据】 截至10日收盘，上证综指涨0.48%，报3509.68点；科创50指数跌0.32%，报979.99点；深证成指涨 0.47%，报10631.13点；创业板指涨0.22%，报2189.58点。 4、据智通财经，7月10日，外交部发言人毛宁主持例行记者会。法新社记者提问，美国总统特朗普昨天 宣布将对进口的铜征收50%的关税，理由是国家安全，请问中方对此有何评论？"这个问题我们立场非 常明确。"毛宁强调，我们一贯反对泛化国家安全概念，我们也始终认为关税战、贸易战没有赢家，滥 施关税不符合任何一方的利益。 5、7月10日，据央视新闻，针对《关于在政府采购活动中对自欧盟进口的医疗器械采取相关措施的通 知》，财政部对有关方面关注的问题进行了解答。解答提到，对于4500万元人民币以上的医疗器械政府 采购项目，未分包开展采购的，非欧盟企业提供的自欧盟进口的医疗器械占比不得超过该项目合同总金 额的50%；分包开展采购的，非欧盟企业提供的自欧盟进口的医疗器械占比不得超过分包后单个采购包 合同金额的50%。采购人分包开展采购时，应当结合采购实际，按照专业类型、专业领域、规格等次 等，对采购项目合理分包。 6、据央广网 ...

7月10日，河南省委书记刘宁、省长王凯在郑州会见中国证监会党委书记、主席吴清一行。吴清表示， 中国证监会将结合地方所需，进一步全面深化资本市场改革，完善制度和产品供给，充分发挥多层次市 场功能，在助力科技创新与产业创新深度融合、提高上市公司质量、防控金融风险、拓展期货市场服务 广度深度、支持乡村振兴和对口帮扶等方面与地方加强沟通合作，为河南落实国家战略和高质量发展提 供有力金融支撑。（河南日报） ...

河南省委书记刘宁王凯会见中国证监会主席吴清 智通财经7月11日电，据"河南发布"消息，7月10日，河南省委书记刘宁、省长王凯在郑州会见中国证监 会党委书记、主席吴清一行。 刘宁、王凯代表省委、省政府向吴清一行表示欢迎，对中国证监会长期以来给予河南金融工作的支持帮 助表示感谢。刘宁说，河南深入贯彻落实习近平总书记关于金融工作的重要论述和在河南考察时重要讲 话精神，坚持稳中求进工作总基调，聚焦"1+2+4+N"目标任务体系，着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳 预期，经济社会保持平稳健康发展。特别是河南近年来紧扣高质量发展首要任务，全方位推进防风险、 强监管、促发展，做好科技金融、绿色金融、普惠金融、养老金融、数字金融"五篇大文章"，不断健全 资本市场体系，大力培育市场经营主体，促进债券市场、期货市场蓬勃发展。希望中国证监会一如既往 支持河南发展，在优质上市公司培育和境内外发行上市、融入服务全国统一大市场、加强金融监管、化 解金融风险等方面给予更多指导和政策支持，更好为实体经济发展注入"金融活水"，推动我省金融事业 再上新台阶。我们将打造更优环境、提供更好保障，大力支持中国证监会在豫机构工作，携手推动资本 市场健康发展 ...

据河南发布，7月10日，河南省委书记刘宁、省长王凯在郑州会见中国证监会党委书记、主席吴清一 行。吴清感谢河南省委、省政府对中国证监会工作的大力支持。他表示，河南经济体量大、区位交通优 越、产业基础坚实、市场潜力广阔，近年来在构建现代化产业体系、加快培育新质生产力方面取得的成 绩令人振奋。中国证监会将坚决贯彻落实党中央、国务院决策部署，坚持稳中求进、以进促稳，立足自 身职能，结合地方所需，进一步全面深化资本市场改革，完善制度和产品供给，充分发挥多层次市场功 能，在助力科技创新与产业创新深度融合、提高上市公司质量、防控金融风险、拓展期货市场服务广度 深度、支持乡村振兴和对口帮扶等方面与地方加强沟通合作，为河南落实国家战略和高质量发展提供有 力金融支撑。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The rising rice prices in Japan have become a critical issue in the upcoming Senate elections, with the government facing criticism for its handling of the situation and the role of the agricultural cooperative (JA) being scrutinized [1][2][3]. Group 1: Rice Price Crisis - Japan has been experiencing a "rice shortage" since last summer, leading to skyrocketing rice prices and political turmoil [1][2]. - Although rice prices have decreased from their peak, they remain significantly higher than the same period last year, contributing to the declining approval ratings of Prime Minister Kishida's administration [2][3]. - The resignation of former Agriculture Minister Takumi Eto, due to his comments about never having bought rice, highlights the political ramifications of the rice price crisis [2]. Group 2: Role of Agricultural Cooperatives - The Japanese agricultural cooperative (JA) has been criticized for its role in maintaining high rice prices through policies that limit rice production [3][9]. - The JA has historically been a powerful entity in Japan, with significant political influence and a close relationship with government officials, forming a "political-agricultural" triangle that hinders agricultural reform [10][11]. - The JA's financial power is substantial, with over 100 trillion yen in deposits and more than 10 million members, complicating efforts for reform [9][10]. Group 3: Government Response and Reforms - In response to the rice price crisis, the government has taken measures to bypass the JA, including direct purchases from farmers and selling reserve rice through free contracts [5][6]. - New Agriculture Minister Shinjiro Koizumi has implemented policies aimed at increasing rice production, which the JA has historically opposed [5][6]. - The government's attempts to reform the JA have faced resistance, as the cooperative's influence remains strong, particularly in rural areas where the ruling party relies on JA support [13][14]. Group 4: Political Implications - The upcoming Senate elections are expected to focus on rice price management and agricultural policies, with the ruling party's performance potentially affected by its handling of the rice crisis [2][14]. - The intertwining of agricultural policies with political interests complicates the government's ability to implement effective reforms without alienating key support bases [13][14]. - The situation presents a significant challenge for the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, as it navigates the complexities of agricultural policy and electoral support [14].

报告指出，有效的经济政策既需要维护经济和金融稳定，又要促进可持续增长，这不仅取决于采取何种 措施，还取决于以何种方式实施政策，其核心在于建立和维护社会信心。政策制定者必须设定清晰的目 标，运用合适的工具，坚定不移地推进落实，及时透明地处理偏差，同时要向公众及时准确阐释对决策 的考虑。当信任建立时，公众的行为将与政策制定者保持一致，公众也将愿意为获得长期收益而接受短 期成本。 为推动全球经济重回正轨，报告呼吁从结构性改革、财政政策、监管政策和货币政策四方面采取措施。 结构性改革方面，要提高行政管理效能，通过吸引顶尖人才、改革激励机制等方式刺激市场活力，努力 消除国内和跨境贸易壁垒，增加在基础设施建设、能源、生物医药和人工智能等领域的公共投资，以此 带动私人投资；财政政策方面，要优先确保债务负担的可持续性，调整支出和税收的构成，重建可靠的 预算规则和财政纪律，以提高财政计划的可信度，这不仅将降低金融不稳定风险，还可为未来的必要支 出创造空间；监管政策方面，要推动《巴塞尔协议Ⅲ》在各国的普遍实施，同时对可能危及金融稳定性 的非银行金融机构实施严格监管，防止累积系统性风险；货币政策方面，不同国家可能面临截然不同的 通 ...

杨海平表示，稳妥有序推进村镇银行重组，首先要审慎选择改革重组的形式。需要考虑村镇银行的风险 程度以及主发起行和属地政府的可用资源、化险责任。风险不是很严重的情况下，可以考虑主发起行增 资。风险相对严重的情况下，若村镇银行处于城商行、农商行经营地域范围之内，则使用吸收合并的方 式；如果超出了主发起行的经营地域范围，则多用他行吸收合并的方式。 当前，无论是国有大型银行此次参与"村改支"，还是城市商业银行、农村商业银行等加快对旗下的村镇 银行进行改革，这些积极信号再次表明村镇银行改革重组势在必行，也为压降金融风险探索新路。 上海金融与法律研究院研究员杨海平表示，大型银行积极响应中央金融工作会议关于加快处置高风险中 小金融机构的有力举措，参与农村中小银行改革化险，充分体现了上下一盘棋的体制优势，向外界传递 出加速改革化险的积极信号。不过，总体来看，未来大型银行参与村镇银行改革案例不会很多。因为在 村镇银行改革化险中，大型银行设立的村镇银行占比较小。绝大多数的村镇银行主发起行为城商行、农 商行。 今年以来，我国村镇银行进行"村改支"的动作在多地频繁上演，由地方城商行、农商行等主发起行参 与，将其旗下经营不善的村镇银行进 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is seeking public comments on a proposal to modify the regulatory rating framework for large banks, which has been in place since 2018 [1] Summary by Relevant Sections Regulatory Framework Changes - The current regulatory framework categorizes banks into four ratings: "well capitalized," "conditionally capitalized," "deficiency level 1," or "deficiency level 2" [1] - Under the new proposal, banks can be classified as "well managed" if they receive at most one "deficiency level 1" rating across various assessments [1] - Institutions that do not meet this standard will be considered poorly managed, leading to restrictions on certain business activities [1] Consistency with Existing Standards - Any bank that receives a "deficiency level 2" rating in any single assessment will still be deemed poorly managed, maintaining consistency with the current system [1]