日元兑美元扩大涨幅，现涨超0.5%，报148.66。此前日本央行公布利率决议。 ...

Report on Stock Index Futures Spread Core View - Presents the latest values, historical quantiles, and daily changes of various spread indicators for stock index futures including IF, IH, IC, and IM on July 31, 2025 [1]. Summary by Category - **Futures - Spot Spread**: IF's futures - spot spread is -14.84, with a 32.30% change from the previous day and a 28.70% historical 1 - year quantile; IH's is 0.65, IC's is -99.29, and IM's is -114.28 [1]. - **Inter - delivery Spread**: Different inter - delivery spreads for IF, IH, IC, and IM are presented, showing their latest values, changes, and historical quantiles [1]. - **Cross - variety Ratio**: Ratios such as CSI 500/CSI 300, IC/IF, etc. are provided, along with their latest values, changes, and historical quantiles [1]. Report on Bond Futures Spread Core View - Displays the latest values, changes, and historical quantiles of indicators like IRR, basis, inter - delivery spread, and cross - variety spread for bond futures on July 31, 2025 [2]. Summary by Category - **IRR**: For example, the IRR of a certain bond on July 30, 2025, is 1.5292, with a 0.0063 change from the previous day and a 21.20% historical quantile [2]. - **Basis**: TF's basis on July 30, 2025, is 0.0007, T's is 1.4179, etc. [2]. - **Inter - delivery Spread**: TS, TF, T, and TL's inter - delivery spreads are presented, including their latest values, changes, and historical quantiles [2]. - **Cross - variety Spread**: Spreads such as TS - TF, TS - T, etc. are provided, along with their latest values, changes, and historical quantiles [2]. Report on Precious Metals Futures - Spot Core View - Compares the closing prices of domestic and foreign precious metals futures, spot prices, basis, ratios, interest rates, exchange rates, inventory, and positions on July 30, 2025 [4]. Summary by Category - **Futures Closing Price**: Domestic AU2510 contract closed at 773.78 yuan/gram on July 30, 2025, with a 0.30% increase; COMEX gold closed at 3327.90 dollars/ounce, up 0.08% [4]. - **Spot Price**: London gold was at 3275.05 dollars/ounce on July 30, 2025, down 1.53%; Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold T + D was at 769.48 yuan/gram, up 0.30% [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract is -4.30, with a -0.05 change and an 8.40% historical 1 - year quantile [4]. - **Ratio**: The ratio of COMEX gold to silver is 89.52, up 3.34% [4]. - **Interest Rate and Exchange Rate**: The 10 - year US Treasury yield is 4.38, up 0.9% [4]. - **Inventory and Position**: The inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold increased by 7.03% to 33462 [4]. Report on Container Shipping Industry Futures - Spot Core View - Analyzes the spot quotes, container shipping indices, futures prices, basis, and fundamental data of the container shipping industry on July 31, 2025 [6]. Summary by Category - **Spot Quote**: The 6 - week future freight reference from Shanghai to Europe for MAERSK is 3003 dollars/FEU on July 31, 2025, down 0.06% [6]. - **Container Shipping Index**: SCFIS (European route) settled at 2316.56 on July 28, 2025, down 3.50% from July 21 [6]. - **Futures Price and Basis**: EC2602 contract closed at 1532.0 points on July 30, 2025, up 0.70%; the basis of the main contract is 802.4, down 1.15% [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: Global container shipping capacity supply remains unchanged at 3273.16 FTEU on July 31, 2025; the port punctuality rate in Shanghai is 34.57, down 18.66% [6]. Report on Trading Calendar Core View - Lists overseas and domestic economic indicators and financial events on July 31, 2025 [7]. Summary by Category - **Overseas Data/Info**: At 2:00, the US Federal Reserve announced the interest rate decision (upper limit) and the FOMC released the interest rate resolution; at 17:00, the eurozone announced the June unemployment rate [7]. - **Domestic Data/Info**: At 9:30, China announced the July official manufacturing PMI; at 15:00, SMM announced the total social inventory of electrolytic copper [7].

③关注加拿大央行对美国与欧盟、美国与日本等国家签订的贸易协议的看法。 ④关注加拿大央行通胀、经济、就业、油价、汇率等的看法。 ①市场普遍预计加拿大央行将维持利率于2.75%不变。 ②关注加拿大央行对未来降息可能性的暗示。 注：北京时间21:45，加拿大央行将公布利率决议。 ...

Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices all declined, with the S&P 500 dropping over 0.2%, the Dow Jones falling approximately 200 points with a decline exceeding 0.4%, and the Nasdaq decreasing by 0.3% [1] Bond Market - U.S. Treasury yields expanded their decline, with the 30-year Treasury yield reaching a new low since July 11 [1] Currency Exchange - The South Korean won maintained its upward trend against the U.S. dollar, rebounding from a daily low of 1394.87 won to a daily high of 1386.99 won [1] ETFs - Korean ETFs listed in the U.S. sustained a gain of over 1.2% [1] Trade Negotiations - U.S. Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo urged South Korea to present the best trade proposals during trade negotiations [1]

Core Viewpoint - The South Korean won depreciated against the US dollar, closing at 1,389.25 won per dollar, marking a decline of 0.40% on July 28 [1] Group 1 - The exchange rate of the South Korean won against the US dollar indicates a significant movement in the currency market [1]

Core Viewpoint - The trading activity of the Chinese yuan on the Moscow Exchange has significantly increased in June, but the average daily trading volume remains below 100 billion rubles, indicating a recovery from a previous low rather than sustained growth [1][2]. Group 1: Trading Activity - In June, the total trading volume of "next-day delivery" yuan exceeded 1.58 trillion rubles, a 13% increase from May [2]. - The average daily trading volume also grew nearly 13% to 800 billion rubles, although it is still significantly lower than the levels seen in February and March, when daily trading volumes exceeded 1 trillion rubles [2]. - The increase in trading activity in June is attributed to higher oil prices at the end of the first quarter, which led to increased foreign exchange income for exporters [2]. Group 2: Currency Exchange Rate - By the end of June, the yuan's exchange rate was 1 yuan to 10.92 rubles, a slight increase of 2 kopecks from the beginning of the month [3]. - The exchange rate fluctuated within a narrow range of 10.8 to 11 rubles per yuan during June, indicating a stabilization in the market [3]. - Analysts expect that the yuan's supply from exporters may decrease in July due to falling oil prices in April and May, which could lead to reduced foreign exchange sales [3]. Group 3: Future Predictions - Experts predict that the ruble will gradually depreciate in the second half of the year, with the average exchange rate expected to reach approximately 1 yuan to 11.7 rubles and 1 dollar to 85 rubles by the fourth quarter [4]. - Factors contributing to the ruble's depreciation include seasonal import demand, increased foreign exchange spending for summer travel, and potential interest rate cuts by the Central Bank of Russia [4]. - Analysts believe that the yuan's exchange rate will rise in the second half of the year, while the ruble will experience moderate depreciation due to seasonal factors and monetary policy [4].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Global Macro Outlook**: The call discusses the macroeconomic environment, focusing on US rates, international rates, commodities, currencies, and emerging markets. Key Points on US Rates - **Value at Front-End**: There is a continued belief in value at the front-end of the yield curve, with 1Y1Y OIS rates appearing high on a medium-term basis. The expectation is for the Fed to ease later this year [3][11][16]. - **Treasury Issuance**: A projection of $629 billion in net T-bill issuance for the current quarter is made, as the Treasury aims to rebuild the TGA following the passage of the OBBBA [3][29]. International Rates - **Tariff Impact**: The announcement of a 30% tariff on EU goods has had little market reaction, with a focus on potential negotiations. The ECB is expected to keep rates on hold [4][42]. Commodities - **Oil Market Dynamics**: President Trump has issued a 50-day ultimatum to Russia regarding oil exports, threatening 100% secondary tariffs. This could lead to a significant supply shock in oil markets due to the scale of Russian exports and limited OPEC spare capacity [8][95]. - **Copper Tariffs**: The impending 50% US copper tariff could result in a 4% drag on refined copper demand growth in the US next year, although US copper demand only accounts for 6% of global demand [99][101]. Currencies - **USD Outlook**: A bearish outlook on the USD is maintained, with expectations of further weakness due to cyclical and structural factors. Recent data has shown mixed signals, but the overall medium-term view remains bearish [67][63]. - **EUR/USD Forecast**: The EUR/USD is expected to strengthen, with a target of 1.19 for Q3 and 1.22 for the next year, driven by US moderation and currency hedges rebalancing [78][80]. Emerging Markets - **Investment Strategy**: The recommendation is to stay underweight (UW) on EM sovereigns while maintaining a market weight (MW) stance on EM FX, local rates, and corporates. The outlook is cautious due to overvalued EM credit and overbought EM FX markets [8][5]. Additional Insights - **Treasury Funding Needs**: The Treasury is well-funded through FY25, but a significant funding gap is expected to emerge in FY26, necessitating coupon size increases starting in February 2026 [17][19]. - **Market Reactions**: The muted market reaction to tariff news indicates a focus on potential negotiations rather than immediate impacts [39][42]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections discussed during the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current macroeconomic landscape and its implications for various sectors.

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion revolves around the macroeconomic perspective on exchange rates, particularly focusing on the US dollar, euro, and Chinese yuan [2][3][4]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Divergent Views on US Dollar**: There is a split within the US government regarding the dollar's strength. White House advisors advocate for a weaker dollar to enhance trade, while the Treasury Secretary emphasizes a strong dollar to attract capital [2][4][9]. 2. **Challenges in Exchange Rate Prediction**: Predicting exchange rates is complex due to multiple influencing factors. Even authoritative bodies like the IMF struggle to provide accurate forecasts [2][5][10][11]. 3. **Impact of Capital Flows**: Recent trends show that capital flows significantly influence exchange rates, with foreign exchange trading volumes far exceeding international trade volumes [2][8][14]. 4. **US Trade Deficit and Dollar Stability**: Despite a long-term trade deficit, the influx of foreign investment has prevented systemic depreciation of the dollar [2][15]. 5. **Foreign Investment in US Assets**: In 2023-2024, foreign investments accounted for 70% of net purchases in US equities, supporting the dollar despite high fiscal and trade deficits [2][15]. 6. **Potential for Yuan Strengthening**: The accumulation of $1.7 trillion in unconverted funds by Chinese exporters may lead to a stronger yuan, especially in the context of US debt monetization [2][17]. 7. **Market Reactions to Dollar Depreciation**: A weaker dollar is expected to benefit A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, enhancing risk appetite and liquidity in these markets [2][19]. 8. **Long-term Outlook for Global Markets**: The expectation of increased fiscal spending in the US and Europe may boost global demand and investment, positively impacting stock markets and commodities [2][19]. Additional Important Content 1. **Complex Interactions Among Currencies**: The interplay between major currencies is intricate, with recent trends showing the yuan's rise, the dollar's rebound, and the euro's slight weakening [3][7]. 2. **The Role of Theoretical Perspectives**: Different economic theories (e.g., classical vs. Keynesian) provide varying insights into the factors influencing exchange rates, highlighting the need for a comprehensive approach [10][11]. 3. **Current Trends in Currency Behavior**: The yuan's recent appreciation against the dollar is not indicative of a clear upward trend, as market dynamics remain complex and influenced by various factors [22][23]. 4. **Implications for Exports**: The yuan's appreciation against the dollar has a limited negative impact on overall exports, supported by adjustments in a basket of currencies [20][23]. 5. **Future of US Debt and Monetary Policy**: The US may adopt measures to manage increasing debt levels, potentially leading to a sustained pressure on the dollar in the medium to long term [18][19]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the current state and future outlook of the currency markets and their implications for various stakeholders.

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in major currency exchange rates, particularly the depreciation of the US dollar and appreciation of the euro, have drawn significant market attention. The recent rebound of the dollar index and the "catch-up" of the RMB against the dollar are noteworthy trends [1][4]. Group 1: Currency Exchange Rate Analysis - Historical data indicates that predicting exchange rate movements is challenging due to numerous influencing factors, including unilateral, bilateral, and multilateral elements [1]. - A comparison of the IMF's assessments of the US dollar's real effective exchange rate (REER) over the past 20 years reveals a notable divergence from actual changes in the dollar's REER [1]. - The RMB's exchange rate has shown volatility, with a significant reversal in trends observed in late 2013, despite market consensus predicting a shift to the "5 era" for the RMB against the dollar [1]. Group 2: Theoretical Frameworks - To better assess exchange rates, it is essential to move beyond mainstream analytical frameworks and adopt a new perspective that incorporates both neoclassical and post-Keynesian views [1]. - Neoclassical economics emphasizes the current account as the primary determinant of exchange rates, while post-Keynesian economics focuses on capital flows as the fundamental force affecting exchange rates [1]. - The increasing significance of capital flows and the volatility of foreign exchange transactions suggest that post-Keynesian thinking aligns more closely with current realities [1]. Group 3: US Dollar Dynamics - The divergence in views between White House economic advisor Milan, who believes the dollar is overvalued, and Treasury Secretary Basent, who aims to maintain a strong dollar, highlights differing perspectives on the dollar's role in the economy [2]. - The US has maintained a relatively stable current account deficit, but uncertainties surrounding Trump's trade policies have diminished the attractiveness of dollar assets, contributing to a decline in the dollar's value [2]. - Since the beginning of the year, the dollar index has dropped by over 10%, influenced by unpredictable trade policies and rising concerns over fiscal deficits [2]. Group 4: Tariff Policies and Economic Pressure - Trump's recent tariff announcements, which include high tariffs on key industries, could push the overall effective tariff rate in the US above 20%, adding pressure to the economy and inflation [3]. - The trend of debt monetization in the US is becoming more apparent, with projected budget deficits remaining high at around 6.5%-7% in the coming years [3]. - Increasing signs of fiscal intervention in monetary policy, as indicated by recent criticisms of the Federal Reserve, suggest a potential shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy environment [3]. Group 5: RMB Exchange Rate Trends - The RMB has appreciated against the dollar by 1.7% since the beginning of the year, but has depreciated by 8.9% against the euro during the same period [4]. - A comprehensive index of the RMB against a basket of currencies shows a cumulative depreciation of 5.3% since the start of the year, indicating that the RMB's appreciation against the dollar is primarily driven by dollar-specific factors [4]. - The RMB's exchange rate remains crucial for exports, as fluctuations against a basket of currencies can partially offset the impacts of tariff changes [4]. Group 6: Future Outlook - The RMB's exchange rate has been largely "passive" thus far, but future movements will depend on factors such as US-China relations and domestic economic conditions [5]. - If China's economic growth stabilizes and market confidence improves, a potential appreciation of the RMB against the dollar may continue in the short term [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde emphasizes the importance of monitoring exchange rates as they are crucial for economic forecasts [1] Group 2 - The ECB is focused on the impact of exchange rates on inflation and economic stability [1] - Lagarde's comments suggest that fluctuations in exchange rates can significantly influence monetary policy decisions [1] - The monitoring of exchange rates is part of the ECB's broader strategy to ensure effective economic management in the Eurozone [1]