Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 综述 1 综述 国泰君安期货·黑色与建材 原木周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·张广硕 期货从业资格号：Z0020198 日期：2025年6月8日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 综述 01 供应 02 需求及库存 03 行情走势 04 其他 05 市场回顾 新西兰船期数据 国内主港库存 国内主港日均出货量 行情走势 现货价格行情 主流材种区域价差 树种、规格间价差 海运费 汇率 ◆ 现货价格走势：对于主流交割品3.9米30+辐射松，山东市场报价750元/方，较上周持平，江苏市场报价775元/方， 较上周持平，目前两地区价差为-25。山东地区3.9米40+辐射松报价810元/方，较上周持平；山东地区5.9米30+ 辐射松报价760元/方，较上周持平。欧洲材云杉、冷杉在江苏市场上的交易量较少，仍处于缺货状态。（千里目 数据） ◆ 供应：截止到6月1日，6月从新西兰出发的船只总共有1条，其中有1条去往中国大陆，0条去往中国台 ...

·国家外汇管理局披露，中国5月末外汇储备规模为32853亿美元，较4月末上升36亿美元。外汇局称，5月受主要经济体财政政策、货币政策和经济增长前景 等因素影响，美元指数小幅震荡，全球金融资产价格涨跌互现，汇率折算和资产价格变化等因素综合作用，当月外汇储备规模上升；我国经济持续回升向 好，经济发展质量稳步提升，为外汇储备规模保持基本稳定提供支撑。（新华财经） ·人民银行数据显示，5月末黄金储备报7383万盎司（约2296.37吨），环比增加6万盎司（约1.86吨），为连续第7个月增持黄金。（新华财经） ·2025年度长三角地区主要领导座谈会在南京举行。会议指出，要巩固经济回升向好态势，增强高质量发展动能。共同实施一批跨区域"两重"项目，加速释 放长三角投资潜力。深入实施"满意消费长三角"提升行动，持续增强消费发展动能。推动内外贸一体化发展，共建共享新型贸易基础设施，不断增强企业应 对风险挑战的底气和信心。（新华财经） ·《深圳市提振消费专项行动实施方案》已正式印发，方案提出39条具体措施，提及支持消费及文旅项目发行基础设施领域不动产投资信托基金（REITs）； 引导金融机构增加对批发零售、住宿餐饮、文化旅游、教 ...

不会对收益率走势、债券发行发表评论。 日本财务大臣加藤胜信：将把货币政策细节留给日本央行来决定。 不对美国汇率报告置评。 将继续实施合适的债券政策。 日本国债稳定发行没有问题。 ...

贵 金 属 比 价 贵金属早报 研究中心宏观团队 2025/06/05 价 格 表 现 品种 伦敦金 伦敦银 伦敦铂 伦敦钯 WTI原油 LME铜 最新 3364.60 34.35 1058.00 1005.00 62.85 9634.50 变化 29.85 0.10 -13.00 41.00 -0.56 89.50 | 交 易 数 据 | | --- | | 日期 | COMEX白银 | 上期所白银 | 黄金ETF持仓 | 白银ETF持仓 | 上金所白银 | 上金所黄金 | 上金所白银 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 库存 | 库存 | | | 库存 | 递延费支付方向 | 递延费支付方向 | | 最新 | - | 1087.21 | 935.65 | 14552.37 | 1396.61 | 1 | 2 | | 变化 | - | 18.36 | 0.00 | 135.72 | 0.00 | -1.00 | 1.00 | 升 贴 水 、 库 存 、 E T F 持 仓 变 化 以上图表数据来源：彭博、永安源点资讯、万得 免责声明 ...

周二（6月3日），韩元兑美元最终涨0.10%，报1377.36韩元。 ...

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of monitoring the AH premium as a leading indicator for A-shares, with recent data showing the AH premium level dropped to a low of 131.65 on May 29, indicating a potential correlation with the peak of the Hong Kong stock market [1][2][3] - The AH premium has historically shown a relationship where its highs and lows correspond to the peaks and troughs of the Hong Kong stock market, suggesting that the recent decline may signal a market bottom [1][2] - Starting from May 30, the AH premium began to recover, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment [1][3] Group 2 - The article discusses the recent trend of the Chinese yuan's appreciation, which has positively impacted both the Hong Kong and A-share markets, but warns that this trend may be reversing [7][8] - Technical analysis suggests that the rapid appreciation of the yuan may be reaching its end, potentially leading to pressure on both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [7][8] - The yuan's exchange rate is shown to have a vague positive correlation with A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, but the recent technical indicators suggest a possible stabilization or reversal in the yuan's appreciation [7][8]

英镑兑美元GBP/USD向上触及1.35，日内涨0.29%。 ...

俄罗斯卢布兑美元汇率升破79，为2023年6月以来的最强水平。 ...

Group 1 - The South Korean won appreciated by 0.11% against the US dollar, closing at 1374.74 won [1] - The won reached a daily high of 1369.35 won at 08:26 Beijing time [1]

Group 1: Currency Market Overview - The Euro has rebounded towards 1.1350 against the USD, while the GBP is challenging the 1.3500 level [1] - The JPY has fallen to its lowest level in over a week against the USD, remaining weak amid a general USD recovery [1] - The AUD has continued its negative trend, testing the 0.6430 area and breaking below the key 200-day moving average due to the strong USD [1] - The NZD, after a drop of over 1% on Tuesday, has reduced some of its losses on Wednesday [1] - The USD/CAD has shown a recovery for the third consecutive day, starting from the 1.3685 area, which is the lowest level since October 2024 [1] Group 2: Central Bank Insights - ECB Governing Council member Holzmann stated that the ECB should at least postpone further rate cuts until September [3] - The Bank of Japan's Governor Ueda mentioned ongoing tariff negotiations, indicating uncertainty in the economic outlook [3] - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has lowered its policy rate from 3.50% to 3.25%, marking the sixth consecutive cut, with expectations for at least another 25 basis points reduction [3][4] - The Westpac Bank now anticipates the RBNZ will cut the official cash rate to 3% in August instead of July [4] - Hungary has maintained its benchmark interest rate at 6.5%, aligning with market expectations [5] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The EUR/USD is showing a bullish bias, despite facing strong resistance at 1.1400 [7] - The GBP/USD is in an overbought state with an RSI above 70, facing support at 1.3500 and resistance at 1.3600 [7] - The AUD/USD is attempting to break through an RSI of 60.00, with potential upward targets at 0.6515 and 0.6550 [8]