Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View The supply of pure benzene remains ample due to the restart of large domestic plants and high port arrivals. Downstream demand is limited, mainly supported by styrene and caprolactam. There are plans for new downstream plants to start production this month, which may improve the supply - demand imbalance. In the short term, the low - valuation situation of spot goods caused by weak supply - demand may continue, and the spot price of pure benzene is expected to fluctuate at a low level. The daily operating range of BZ2603 is expected to be around 6070 - 6200 [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The main closing price of pure benzene is 6122 yuan/ton, down 44 yuan; the main settlement price is 6139 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan. The main trading volume is 12912 lots, down 1137 lots; the main open interest is 13126 lots, down 765 lots [2]. Spot Market - The mainstream prices of pure benzene in the East China, North China, South China, and Northeast regions are 5960 yuan/ton, 5800 yuan/ton, 5950 yuan/ton, and 5800 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 10 yuan/ton, - 60 yuan/ton, 0 yuan/ton, and - 40 yuan/ton [2]. - The mainstream prices of hydrogenated benzene in Jiangsu and Shanxi regions are 5950 yuan/ton and 5675 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 50 yuan/ton and 0 yuan/ton [2]. - The spot price of pure benzene in South Korea (FOB) is 724 dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF price in China is 740.5 dollars/ton, unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - The spot price of Brent DTD crude oil is 70.18 dollars/barrel, down 0.93 dollars; the CFR price of naphtha in Japan is 581.38 dollars/ton, down 2.37 dollars [2]. Industry Situation - The capacity utilization rate of pure benzene is 78.14%, up 0.13%; the weekly output is 43.17 tons, down 0.16 tons. The port inventory is 17.4 tons, down 0.3 tons [2]. - The production cost of pure benzene is 5327.8 yuan/ton, down 118.2 yuan; the production profit is 737 yuan/ton, up 76 yuan [2]. Downstream Situation - The开工率 of styrene is 79.21%, down 0.82%; the capacity utilization rates of caprolactam, phenol, aniline, and adipic acid are 95.72% (up 6.41%), 78.54% (down 0.46%), 69.24% (down 0.1%), and 64.3% (up 2%) respectively [2]. Industry News - From July 4th to 10th, the weekly profit of pure benzene was 584 yuan/ton, down 153 yuan/ton compared to the previous period [2]. - As of July 14th, the commercial inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu ports was 16.4 tons, down 5.75% from the previous period [2]. - BZ2603 fluctuated weakly, closing at 6122 yuan/ton. Last week, the impact of shutdowns of petroleum benzene plants expanded, with the capacity utilization rate down 0.29% to 77.85%; three hydrogenated benzene plants shut down, with the capacity utilization rate down 9.32% to 61.95% [2].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The LPG market is mainly in a state of oscillation. The basis has weakened slightly to 340 (-9), and the monthly spread has also weakened slightly. The cheapest deliverable is East China civil gas. Import costs have risen, while the external price has increased slightly, and the oil - gas ratio remains basically flat. The internal - external spread has weakened, and the US - Asia arbitrage window has opened with a slight increase in freight rates. - In terms of fundamentals, arrivals will increase this week. Chemical demand has declined, while combustion demand is average. Terminal shipments are average, and port inventories have increased by 6.92%. Factory inventories are basically flat with regional differentiation. It is expected that the commodity volume will first decrease and then increase in the next three weeks. - Supported by chemical demand, prices in Shandong and East China may rise, while due to weak combustion demand, the price center in South China is expected to move down [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a) Price and Market Data - **Daily Price Changes**: From July 10 - 15, 2025, prices of various LPG - related products showed different trends. For example, South China LPG dropped by 20, and MB propane decreased by 25. The basis weakened by 9 to 340, and the 08 - 09 monthly spread decreased by 11 to 86, and the 08 - 10 monthly spread decreased by 38 to - 332 [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: FEI and CP decreased, CP production cost is lower than FEI, and the production profit of FEI and CP for PP changed little. Import costs increased, and the external price rose slightly, with the oil - gas ratio remaining flat [1]. - **Arbitrage Windows**: The US - to - Far - East arbitrage window was closed on Tuesday. The US - Asia arbitrage window opened, and freight rates increased slightly [1]. b) Fundamental Situation - **Supply**: Arrivals increased this week, and it is expected that the commodity volume will first decrease and then increase in the next three weeks [1]. - **Demand**: Chemical demand declined, gasoline terminal demand was poor, MTBE was weakly sorted, and combustion demand was average [1]. - **Inventory**: Port inventories increased by 6.92%, and factory inventories were basically flat with regional differentiation. East China accumulated inventory due to typhoon weather and weak combustion terminal demand, while South China had a supply - demand double - weak situation with factory destocking [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - BZ futures discount has narrowed, and the strong downstream demand for BZ has led to a decline in pure benzene port inventory from a high level. The high operating rates of downstream styrene and CPL support the demand, and the increase in polymer MDI operating rate drives up the aniline operating rate. However, the sustainability of CPL's high operating rate is still questionable due to the decline in PA6 and nylon filament operating rates. On the supply side, the pressure of South Korea's exports to China remains, and domestic production operating rates are still high, resulting in the continued weak consolidation of pure benzene processing fees. For styrene, port inventory has further increased, and the EB basis has rapidly declined. Domestically, EB maintains a high operating rate on the supply side, while on the demand side, the operating rates of EPS and PS drag down EB demand [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory I. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure, Inter - Period Spreads - The report mentions various basis and spread data of pure benzene and EB, including pure benzene's main basis, the spread between pure benzene spot and M2 paper goods, the spread between the first - and third - continuous contracts of pure benzene, EB's main contract basis, and the spread between the first - and third - continuous contracts of styrene [1][13][19]. II. Pure Benzene and Styrene Production Profits, Domestic and Foreign Spreads - Data on production profits and domestic - foreign spreads of pure benzene and styrene are presented, such as naphtha processing fees, the difference between pure benzene FOB South Korea and naphtha CFR Japan, non - integrated production profits of styrene, and differences in FOB prices of pure benzene and styrene in different regions [25][26][37]. III. Pure Benzene and Styrene Inventory, Operating Rates - Pure benzene port inventory is 16.40 million tons (-1.00 million tons), and styrene's East China port inventory is 138,500 tons (+27,000 tons), and its East China commercial inventory is 45,000 tons (+6,000 tons). The operating rate of pure benzene downstream products and styrene is also given, like the operating rate of styrene is 79.2% (-0.8%) [1]. IV. Styrene Downstream Operating Rates and Production Profits - For styrene downstream hard plastics, EPS production profit is 310 yuan/ton (+198 yuan/ton), PS production profit is -190 yuan/ton (+98 yuan/ton), ABS production profit is 408 yuan/ton (+109 yuan/ton). The operating rates of EPS, PS, and ABS are 51.06% (-4.82%), 51.10% (-1.30%), and 65.00% (-0.04%) respectively, and the downstream operating rates are at a seasonal low [2]. V. Pure Benzene Downstream Operating Rates and Production Profits - Data on the operating rates and production profits of pure benzene downstream products are provided, such as the operating rate of caprolactam is 95.72% (+0.00%), the production profit of caprolactam is -1,895 yuan/ton (-5 yuan/ton), etc. [1]. 4. Strategies - Unilateral: Hold a wait - and - see attitude towards pure benzene and styrene [4]. - Basis and Inter - period: For the near - month BZ paper goods - distant BZ2603 futures, conduct reverse arbitrage when the price is high [4]. - Cross - variety: Narrow the EB - BZ spread when it is high [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - BZ2603 dropped 1.05% to close at 6,144 yuan/ton. The supply side saw an expanded impact of shutdowns in petroleum benzene plants last week, with the capacity utilization rate decreasing by 0.29% to 77.85%. For hydrobenzene, 3 sets of devices stopped, and the capacity utilization rate dropped by 9.32% to 61.95%. On the demand side, the operating rates of pure benzene downstream varied last week. In terms of inventory, the pure benzene inventory at East China ports decreased by 5.75% to 164,000 tons this week. With an increase in domestic petroleum benzene and hydrobenzene maintenance devices this week, the capacity utilization rate is expected to continue to decline. Due to the restart of large domestic plants and a continuous high volume of ships arriving at ports, pure benzene remains in a state of loose supply. Downstream demand is limited, mainly supported by styrene and caprolactam. There are plans for new downstream device startups this month, which may improve the future supply - demand contradiction. In terms of cost, the global crude oil supply - demand is generally weak, but geopolitical uncertainties still affect short - term oil prices. In the short term, the low - valued spot situation caused by weak supply - demand may continue. The pure benzene spot price is expected to fluctuate at a low level this week. Pay attention to the implementation of new downstream production capacity in the future. BZ2603 is expected to show a volatile trend, with the daily operating range expected to be around 6,100 - 6,300 [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The main closing price of pure benzene was 6,144 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45 yuan; the main settlement price was 6,166 yuan/ton, a decrease of 43 yuan. The main trading volume was 24,596 lots, a decrease of 13,009 lots; the main open interest was 13,970 lots, a decrease of 790 lots [2]. Spot Market - The mainstream price of pure benzene in the East China market was 5,965 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan; in the South China market, it was 5,950 yuan/ton; in the North China market, it was 5,860 yuan/ton; in the Northeast region, it was 5,850 yuan/ton. The spot price of pure benzene in South Korea (FOB) was 727 US dollars/ton, and the CIF price in China was 744.5 US dollars/ton, an increase of 6 US dollars/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - The spot price of Brent DTD crude oil was 71.45 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 1.19 US dollars; the CFR intermediate price of naphtha in the Japanese region was 597 US dollars/ton, an increase of 12.75 US dollars [2]. Industry Situation - The capacity utilization rate of pure benzene was 78.14%, an increase of 0.13%; the weekly output was 431,700 tons, a decrease of 1,600 tons. The port inventory of pure benzene was 174,000 tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons. The production cost was 5,327.8 yuan/ton, a decrease of 118.2 yuan/ton; the production profit was 737 yuan/ton, an increase of 76 yuan/ton [2]. Downstream Situation - The operating rate of styrene was 79.21%, a decrease of 0.82%; the capacity utilization rate of caprolactam was 95.72%, an increase of 6.41%; the capacity utilization rate of phenol was 78.54%, a decrease of 0.46%; the capacity utilization rate of aniline was 69.24%, a decrease of 0.1%; the capacity utilization rate of adipic acid was 64.3%, an increase of 2 [2]. Industry News - From July 4th to 10th, the weekly profit of pure benzene was 584 yuan/ton, a decrease of 153 yuan/ton compared to the previous period. As of July 14th, the commercial inventory of pure benzene at Jiangsu port samples was 164,000 tons, a decrease of 5.75% compared to the previous period [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] - Inter - period: Do reverse spreads on the MA09 - 01 inter - period spread when it is high [3] - Inter - variety: Narrow the PP01 - 3MA01 spread when it is high [3] Core Viewpoints - Overseas methanol production is operating at a high level, and the pressure of methanol arriving at Chinese ports remains high, leading to a stockpiling cycle at ports. The Xingxing MTO maintenance plan is yet to be implemented. If it is carried out smoothly, port demand will be further affected. Although the short - term situation at ports is weak, the market expects a significant scale of overseas gas - based methanol maintenance in the fourth quarter, which makes the long - term outlook optimistic [2] - In the inland region, short - term maintenance of inland coal - based methanol has led to a decline in supply. Although the formaldehyde in traditional downstream industries is in a seasonal off - season, the operating rates of MTBE and acetic acid are acceptable. The demand in the inland region remains resilient, and the inventory rebuilding rate of inland methanol factories is still slow. The inland market is stronger than the port market [2] Summary by Directory I. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The report presents figures related to methanol basis in different regions (such as methanol in Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, etc.) compared with the main futures contract, and inter - period spreads between different methanol futures contracts (such as 01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01) [6][10][21] II. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit - Figures show the production profit of Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol, the MTO profit in East China, and import spreads such as the difference between Taicang methanol and CFR China, as well as price differences between CFR Southeast Asia, FOB US Gulf, FOB Rotterdam and CFR China [25][28][29] III. Methanol Operating Rate, Inventory - The report provides data on methanol port total inventory, MTO/P operating rate (including integrated ones), inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol operating rate (including integrated ones) [33][35] IV. Regional Price Differences - Figures display regional price differences such as Lubei - Northwest - 280, East China - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, etc [37][44] V. Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures show the production gross margins of traditional downstream products such as Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and Henan dimethyl ether [50][51]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - BZ futures maintain a large premium, reflecting the contango structure of high - inventory pricing. The strong downstream demand for pure benzene has led to a decline in pure benzene port inventory from its high level. However, the supply pressure from South Korea's exports to China and high domestic production have kept the pure benzene processing fee in a weak consolidation. For styrene, the port inventory has further increased, and the EB basis has further declined. Domestic EB maintains high - level production, while the demand is dragged down by the low operation rates of EPS and PS [3]. Summary by Catalog 1. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure, Inter - period Spread - Relevant data includes pure benzene's main basis, the spread between pure benzene spot and M2 paper goods, the spread between the first - and third - consecutive contracts of pure benzene, the trend and basis of the EB main contract, and the spread between the first - and third - consecutive contracts of styrene [8][12][17] 2. Production Profits and Domestic - Foreign Spreads of Pure Benzene and Styrene - It involves data such as naphtha processing fee, the price difference between pure benzene FOB South Korea and naphtha CFR Japan, the production profit of non - integrated styrene plants, and the import profits of pure benzene and styrene [21][23][28] 3. Inventory and Operation Rates of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene's East China port inventory and operation rate are presented, along with styrene's East China port inventory, commercial inventory, factory inventory, and operation rate [34][36][39] 4. Operation and Production Profits of Styrene's Downstream - Data on the operation rates and production profits of EPS, PS, and ABS are provided [45][49][50] 5. Operation and Production Profits of Pure Benzene's Downstream - Information includes the operation rates and production profits of caprolactam, phenol - acetone, aniline, adipic acid, PA6, nylon filament, bisphenol A, PC, epoxy resin E - 51, pure MDI, and polymer MDI [53][57][64] Strategies - Unilateral: Observe pure benzene and styrene [4] - Basis and Inter - period: For near - month BZ paper goods and far - end BZ2603 futures, conduct reverse arbitrage when the price is high [4] - Cross - variety: Shrink the EB - BZ price difference when it is high [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The recent BZ2603 rally results from the combined forces of industry anti - arbitrage and the compression of styrene production profit. The BZ futures premium has further expanded, with limited potential for increasing the pure benzene processing fee. Styrene port inventory is continuously accumulating, and its production profit faces further compression pressure. The decline in EPS and PS开工 further drags down EB demand [3] Summary by Directory I. Basis Structure and Inter - period Spread of Pure Benzene and EB - Relevant figures include the pure benzene main contract basis, pure benzene spot - M2 paper cargo spread, pure benzene consecutive one - contract to consecutive three - contract spread, EB main contract trend & basis, EB main contract basis, and styrene consecutive one - contract to consecutive three - contract spread [8][11][14][17] II. Production Profit and Internal - External Spread of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Relevant figures cover naphtha processing fee, pure benzene FOB Korea - naphtha CFR Japan spread, styrene non - integrated plant production profit, pure benzene FOB US Gulf - pure benzene FOB Korea spread, pure benzene FOB US Gulf - CFR China spread, pure benzene FOB Rotterdam - CFR China spread, pure benzene import profit, styrene import profit, styrene FOB US Gulf - CFR China spread, and styrene FOB Rotterdam - CFR China spread [19][22][27][30][32] III. Inventory and Operating Rate of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Relevant figures are pure benzene East China port inventory, pure benzene operating rate, styrene East China port inventory, styrene operating rate, styrene East China commercial inventory, and styrene factory inventory [37][39][42] IV. Operating Rate and Production Profit of Styrene Downstream - Relevant figures involve EPS operating rate, EPS production profit, PS operating rate, PS production profit, ABS operating rate, and ABS production profit [48][50][52] V. Operating Rate and Production Profit of Pure Benzene Downstream - Relevant figures include caprolactam operating rate, phenol - acetone operating rate, aniline operating rate, adipic acid operating rate, caprolactam production gross profit, phenol - acetone production gross profit, aniline production gross profit, adipic acid production gross profit, PA6 regular spun bright production gross profit, nylon filament production gross profit, bisphenol A production gross profit, PC production gross profit, epoxy resin E - 51 production gross profit, pure MDI production gross profit, and polymer MDI production gross profit [57][61][70][78][81][82] Market Data Pure Benzene - Main contract basis: - 268 yuan/ton (- 103) [1] - Port inventory: 17.40 tons (- 0.30 tons) [1] - CFR China processing fee: 140 dollars/ton (- 5 dollars/ton) [1] - FOB Korea processing fee: 126 dollars/ton (- 5 dollars/ton) [1] - US - Korea spread: 113.9 dollars/ton (- 7.0 dollars/ton) [1] - East China pure benzene spot - M2 spread: - 95 yuan/ton (- 15 yuan/ton) [1] Pure Benzene Downstream - Caprolactam production profit: - 1910 yuan/ton (- 105) [1] - Phenol - acetone production profit: - 564 yuan/ton (+ 0) [1] - Aniline production profit: - 171 yuan/ton (- 305) [1] - Adipic acid production profit: - 1487 yuan/ton (- 72) [1] - Caprolactam operating rate: 95.72% (+ 0.00%) [1] - Phenol operating rate: 78.00% (- 0.50%) [1] - Aniline operating rate: 70.90% (+ 1.66%) [1] - Adipic acid operating rate: 65.70% (+ 1.40%) [1] Styrene - Main contract basis: 205 yuan/ton (- 80 yuan/ton) [1] - Non - integrated production profit: 219 yuan/ton (+ 26 yuan/ton), expected to gradually compress [1] - East China port inventory: 111,500 tons (+ 12,700 tons) [1] - East China commercial inventory: 39,000 tons (+ 7,700 tons), in the inventory rebuilding stage [1] - Operating rate: 79.2% (- 0.8%) [1] Styrene Downstream (Hard Rubber) - EPS production profit: - 48 yuan/ton (- 89 yuan/ton) [2] - PS production profit: - 298 yuan/ton (- 39 yuan/ton) [2] - ABS production profit: 318 yuan/ton (- 74 yuan/ton) [2] - EPS operating rate: 51.06% (- 4.82%) [2] - PS operating rate: 51.10% (- 1.30%) [2] - ABS operating rate: 65.00% (- 0.04%), at a seasonal low [2] Strategies - Unilateral: Wait and see for pure benzene and styrene [4] - Basis and inter - period: For near - month BZ paper cargo - far - month BZ2603 futures, conduct anti - arbitrage at high prices [4] - Cross - variety: Narrow the EB - BZ spread at high prices [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral. No strategy for inter - period trading [3] Core Viewpoints - Yulong Petrochemical's three - line maintenance and the upcoming maintenance season for upstream petrochemical plants have led to an increase in maintenance losses, easing market supply pressure and resulting in a slight reduction in production inventory. The anti - involution policy on the macro level has some positive impact, with an expected improvement in the medium - to - long - term supply side, but the short - term fundamentals of polyolefins have not significantly improved. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is gradually easing, leading to lower international oil and propane prices. The production profit of PDH - made PP has turned from loss to profit, and the cost - side support has weakened. Downstream demand remains in the seasonal off - season, with the agricultural film industry's starting rate rising from the bottom, the plastic braiding industry's starting rate decreasing, and other downstream industries maintaining their starting rates, mainly for rigid - demand procurement [2] Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - L main contract closed at 7278 yuan/ton (+33), PP main contract closed at 7078 yuan/ton (+33). LL North China spot was 7180 yuan/ton (+0), LL East China spot was 7270 yuan/ton (+0), PP East China spot was 7120 yuan/ton (+0). LL North China basis was - 98 yuan/ton (-33), LL East China basis was - 8 yuan/ton (-33), PP East China basis was 42 yuan/ton (-33) [1] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE operating rate was 79.5% (+3.0%), PP operating rate was 77.4% (-1.9%). PE oil - based production profit was 94.8 yuan/ton (-71.4), PP oil - based production profit was - 295.2 yuan/ton (-71.4), PDH - made PP production profit was 250.4 yuan/ton (-49.8) [1] 3. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - No specific data provided in the given text 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - LL import profit was - 109.6 yuan/ton (-10.0), PP import profit was - 634.8 yuan/ton (-10.3), PP export profit was 29.5 US dollars/ton (+1.2) [1] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profits - PE downstream agricultural film operating rate was 12.1% (-0.3%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate was 48.4% (+0.5%), PP downstream plastic braiding operating rate was 42.2% (-1.0%), PP downstream BOPP film operating rate was 60.3% (-0.1%) [1] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - The text mentions that production inventory has a slight reduction, but no specific inventory data is provided [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: None [3] Core Viewpoints - The market trading of macro - positive factors has ended, and the atmosphere of waiting and seeing prevails. Downstream factories have low purchasing sentiment, and most end - users make purchases based on rigid demand. Upstream petrochemical plants will enter the maintenance season, and the maintenance loss is on the rise, alleviating the market supply pressure and leading to a slight reduction in production inventory. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is gradually easing, international oil prices and propane prices are falling, the production profit of PDH - made PP has turned from loss to profit, and the cost - side support has weakened. The downstream demand remains in the seasonal off - season, with the bottom - up recovery of the agricultural film industry's start - up rate and the decline of the plastic weaving industry's start - up rate [2] Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - L主力合约收盘价为7245元/吨（-2），PP主力合约收盘价为7045元/吨（-12），LL华北现货为7180元/吨（-30），LL华东现货为7270元/吨（-20），PP华东现货为7120元/吨（+0），LL华北基差为 - 65元/吨（-28），LL华东基差为25元/吨（-18），PP华东基差为75元/吨（+12） [1] 2. Production Profit and Start - up Rate - PE开工率为79.5%（+3.0%），PP开工率为77.4%（-1.9%）；PE油制生产利润为166.2元/吨（-108.4），PP油制生产利润为 - 243.8元/吨（-108.4），PDH制PP生产利润为300.1元/吨（+0.0） [1] 3. Polyolefin Non - standard Price Difference - No specific data provided in the given text 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - LL进口利润为 - 109.6元/吨（-10.0），PP进口利润为 - 624.5元/吨（+86.2），PP出口利润为28.3美元/吨（+0.0） [1] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Start - up and Downstream Profits - PE下游农膜开工率为12.1%（-0.3%），PE下游包装膜开工率为48.4%（+0.5%），PP下游塑编开工率为42.2%（-1.0%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为60.3%（-0.1%） [1] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - Upstream petrochemical plants will enter the maintenance season, and production inventory has a slight reduction [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the methanol industry is neutral [3] Core Viewpoints - The Iranian methanol plants are further resuming production, leading to an increase in overseas supply. The port basis is weak, and there is still a large pressure of arrivals in July. There are intentions to conduct maintenance on externally - purchased MTO units in late July, and the port is currently in an inventory - building cycle. However, there are expectations of winter maintenance of overseas natural gas - based methanol plants and the commissioning of externally - purchased methanol MTO units in the fourth quarter, presenting a situation of weak current conditions but strong future expectations. In the inland area, the operation rate of coal - based methanol plants remains high, but the traditional downstream shows sufficient resilience, and the inventory of inland methanol plants is under no pressure [2] Summary by Directory 1. Methanol Basis & Inter - Period Structure - Includes multiple figures showing methanol basis in different regions (such as methanol in Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, etc.) relative to the main futures contract, and inter - period spreads between different methanol futures contracts (e.g., 01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01) [6][10][22] 2. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, and Import Profit - Figures cover the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia, the profit of MTO in East China, and import spreads (e.g., Taicang methanol - CFR China, CFR Southeast Asia - CFR China, etc.) [26][27][28] 3. Methanol Operation Rate and Inventory - Relevant figures display the total port inventory of methanol, the operation rate of MTO/P (including integrated units), the sample inventory of inland plants, and the operation rate of methanol in China (including integrated units) [34][35][37] 4. Regional Price Spreads - Figures illustrate regional price spreads such as Lubei - Northwest - 280, East China - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, etc. [39][46][49] 5. Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures show the production profits of traditional downstream products like formaldehyde in Shandong, acetic acid in Jiangsu, MTBE in Shandong, and dimethyl ether in Henan [50][58] Market Data Inland Area - Q5500 Ordos thermal coal is 410 yuan/ton (unchanged). The production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia is 690 yuan/ton (down 25 yuan/ton). Inland methanol prices: Inner Mongolia North Line is 1985 yuan/ton (down 25 yuan/ton), with a basis of 193 yuan/ton (down 18 yuan/ton); Inner Mongolia South Line is 2020 yuan/ton (unchanged); Linyi in Shandong is 2295 yuan/ton (down 35 yuan/ton), with a basis of 103 yuan/ton (down 28 yuan/ton); Henan is 2175 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan/ton), with a basis of - 17 yuan/ton (down 23 yuan/ton); Hebei is 2185 yuan/ton (unchanged), with a basis of 53 yuan/ton (up 7 yuan/ton). The inventory of inland plants is 352,280 tons (up 10,730 tons), and the inventory of plants in the Northwest is 223,500 tons (up 18,000 tons). The pending orders of inland plants are 233,250 tons (down 7,450 tons), and those of plants in the Northwest are 110,400 tons (down 9,100 tons) [1] Port Area - Methanol in Taicang is 2425 yuan/ton (down 40 yuan/ton), with a basis of 33 yuan/ton (down 33 yuan/ton); CFR China is 282 US dollars/ton (down 1 US dollar/ton), and the import spread in East China is - 9 yuan/ton (up 15 yuan/ton). Methanol in Changzhou is 2420 yuan/ton; methanol in Guangdong is 2435 yuan/ton (down 25 yuan/ton), with a basis of 43 yuan/ton (down 18 yuan/ton). The total port inventory is 673,660 tons (up 3,160 tons), the inventory in Jiangsu ports is 333,000 tons (down 23,500 tons), the inventory in Zhejiang ports is 176,500 tons (up 37,000 tons), and the inventory in Guangdong ports is 120,500 tons (down 13,500 tons). The operation rate of downstream MTO is 84.60% (down 2.19%) [2] Regional Price Spreads - The spread of Lubei - Northwest - 280 is - 25 yuan/ton (unchanged); the spread of Taicang - Inner Mongolia - 550 is - 110 yuan/ton (down 15 yuan/ton); the spread of Taicang - Lunan - 250 is - 120 yuan/ton (down 5 yuan/ton); the spread of Lunan - Taicang - 100 is - 230 yuan/ton (up 5 yuan/ton); the spread of Guangdong - East China - 180 is - 170 yuan/ton (up 15 yuan/ton); the spread of East China - Sichuan - Chongqing - 200 is - 55 yuan/ton (down 40 yuan/ton) [2] Strategy - For the 9 - 1 inter - period spread, conduct reverse arbitrage when the spread is high [3]