Market Overview and Key Insights - The Hong Kong dividend sector showed resilience last week, with the Hang Seng China Central State-Owned Enterprises Dividend Total Return Index rising by 1.11%, while the Hang Seng Index fell by 1.31% and the Hang Seng Tech Index dropped by 2.34% [1] - Foreign capital inflow expanded significantly, with net inflow into Hong Kong stocks reaching $916 million, compared to a mere $10 million the previous week, primarily driven by substantial inflows from passive foreign investments [1] - The insurance sector is increasingly focusing on dividend assets due to a combination of asset scarcity, low interest rates, accounting standard changes, and policy guidance [1] Insurance Capital and Market Dynamics - Insurance funds are expected to become a significant source of incremental capital in the stock market, with a requirement for state-owned large insurance companies to invest 30% of new premiums in A-shares starting January 2025, potentially adding thousands of billions in long-term funds annually [2] - The dividend yield of the Hang Seng China Central State-Owned Enterprises Dividend Index stands at 7.87%, significantly higher than the 5.41% yield of the CSI Dividend Index, with a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.63 and a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 6.88 [2] - The total return index has achieved a cumulative return of 119% since the beginning of 2021, outperforming the Hang Seng Total Return Index by 115% [2] ETF Overview - The Huaan Hong Kong Stock Connect Central State-Owned Enterprises Dividend ETF (code: 513920) tracks the Hang Seng China Central State-Owned Enterprises Dividend Index, reflecting the performance of high-dividend securities listed in Hong Kong with state-owned enterprises as the largest shareholders [3] - This ETF is the first in the market to combine the attributes of Hong Kong stocks, state-owned enterprises, and dividends, providing investors with opportunities to capitalize on the valuation restructuring of state-owned enterprises [3] ETF Performance and Holdings - The top ten weighted stocks in the Hang Seng China Central State-Owned Enterprises Dividend Index include China COSCO Shipping (4.6% weight, 13.0% dividend yield), Orient Overseas International (4.6% weight, 11.1% dividend yield), and New China Life Insurance (4.1% weight, 3.4% dividend yield) [5] - The performance of these stocks over the past 12 months shows varying degrees of decline, with China COSCO Shipping experiencing a 2.4% drop [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the increasing popularity and performance of dividend-related ETFs amidst market volatility, with significant inflows and historical scale achievements [1] - In the first half of the year, dividend-related ETFs attracted over 17 billion yuan in net inflows, bringing their total scale to over 140 billion yuan [1] - The Hang Seng Dividend Low Volatility ETF (159545) and the Dividend Low Volatility ETF (563020) received net inflows of 1.5 billion yuan and 1 billion yuan respectively, reaching historical highs in scale [1] Group 2 - The current global uncertainty has led to a heightened demand for risk aversion among investors, making dividend assets attractive due to their stable cash flow and high dividend yield [1] - The policy environment continues to encourage listed companies to distribute dividends, which is expected to attract more funds to the dividend sector in the medium to long term [1] - June marks the peak period for annual dividend distributions, making it a favorable time for positioning in dividend assets as many companies implement dividends during this month [1] Group 3 - E Fund is noted as the only fund company that implements low fee rates across all its dividend ETFs, including products like E Fund Dividend ETF (515180), Dividend Low Volatility ETF (563020), and Hang Seng Dividend Low Volatility ETF (159545) [2]

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced fluctuations and corrections, with the Guozheng Free Cash Flow Index dropping over 0.25%, while stocks like Changhong Meiling and Zhongyuan Media led the gains [1] - As of July 6, a total of 688 listed companies have received bank support for stock repurchase and increase loans, with a cumulative loan limit exceeding 135.86 billion [1] - In 2023, 436 listed companies have received bank support for stock repurchase and increase loans, with a cumulative loan limit of 86.577 billion, indicating sustained interest in this new tool [1] Group 2 - The Free Cash Flow ETF (159201) closely tracks the Guozheng Free Cash Flow Index, addressing the limitations of traditional dividend strategies by focusing on internal growth capabilities and financial health [2] - The fund management fee is set at an annual rate of 0.15%, and the custody fee at 0.05%, both of which are among the lowest in the market, maximizing benefits for investors [2]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the banking sector, suggesting that certain stocks may benefit from policy catalysts and cyclical recovery [3]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that while tariff policies may cause short-term impacts on exports, long-term domestic policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market, promoting consumption, and enhancing social welfare are expected to support economic growth [3]. - The banking sector is anticipated to benefit from these policies, with specific banks such as Ningbo Bank, Postal Savings Bank, China Merchants Bank, and Changshu Bank being recommended for investment [3]. - The report also emphasizes the potential for continued dividends from banks like Shanghai Bank, China Merchants Bank, Jiangsu Bank, and Chongqing Bank, which are showing positive fundamental changes [3]. Summary by Sections Credit Growth - As of the end of May 2025, the overall loan growth rate in China was 6.6%, with household and corporate loans growing at 3.0% and 8.5% respectively [1]. - Provinces such as Sichuan, Jiangsu, and Anhui led in credit growth, with growth rates exceeding 9% [1][2]. - Corporate loans in Sichuan, Jiangsu, and Shandong showed impressive growth rates of 13.8%, 13.6%, and 13.4% respectively [2]. Key Data Tracking - The average daily trading volume in the stock market was 14,415.38 billion yuan, a decrease of 453.04 billion yuan from the previous week [4]. - The balance of margin financing and securities lending increased by 1.12% to 1.85 trillion yuan [5]. - The issuance of non-monetary funds decreased significantly, with a total of 53.28 billion yuan issued this week, down 273.46 billion yuan from the previous week [5]. Interest Rate Market Tracking - The issuance scale of interbank certificates of deposit was 2,435.10 billion yuan, a decrease of 4,828.40 billion yuan from the previous week [6]. - The average interest rate for interbank certificates of deposit was 1.62%, down 2 basis points from the previous week [10]. - The average yield on 10-year government bonds remained stable at 1.64% [10]. Sector Performance - The banking sector's performance is closely monitored, with specific stocks showing varying degrees of growth and decline [30]. - The report includes detailed charts tracking the performance of various financial stocks and their respective movements [30][36].

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: High-Growth and Dividend Rotation Timing Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model aims to identify effective timing signals for rotating between high-growth and dividend strategies based on macroeconomic and market indicators[9]. - **Model Construction Process**: 1. At the end of each month, the model selects effective signals from single-factor tests, including term spread, social financing growth, CPI and PPI quadrants, US Treasury yields, and capital flow indicators (ETF, insurance funds, foreign capital)[9]. 2. Each indicator provides a signal to either buy high-growth or dividend strategies. 3. The average score of these signals is used as the final score for allocation decisions[9]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model demonstrates a "defensive and offensive" characteristic, balancing risk and return by maintaining a 60% defensive dividend base and 40% growth allocation during volatile market conditions[9]. --- Model Backtesting Results 1. High-Growth and Dividend Rotation Timing Model - **Cumulative Return**: 259.92% - **Annualized Return**: 14.91% - **Maximum Drawdown**: 27.08% - **Annualized Volatility**: 23.16% - **Annualized Sharpe Ratio**: 0.64 - **Calmar Ratio**: 0.55[6] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Term Spread - **Factor Construction Idea**: Reflects fixed-income market investors' expectations of future economic growth. A declining or low term spread is unfavorable for high-growth styles[13]. - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Calculate the difference between 10-year and 1-year government bond yields. 2. For June 2025, the 1-year yield was 1.34% (down from 1.46% in May), and the 10-year yield was 1.65% (down from 1.67% in May). 3. The term spread for June 2025 was 0.31, up from 0.22 in May[13]. 2. Factor Name: Social Financing Growth - **Factor Construction Idea**: Serves as a leading macroeconomic indicator. Higher corporate financing demand indicates economic recovery expectations, supporting high-growth styles[13]. - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Use the year-over-year growth rate of the total social financing stock. 2. For May 2025, the growth rate was 8.7%, unchanged from the previous month, continuing its marginal improvement since bottoming out in October 2024[13]. 3. Factor Name: CPI and PPI Quadrants - **Factor Construction Idea**: Timing effectiveness is higher than the CPI-PPI spread. When CPI and PPI rise simultaneously, especially when CPI rises faster, it indicates strong downstream demand and economic growth, favoring high-growth styles[16]. - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Analyze CPI and PPI year-over-year changes. 2. For May 2025, CPI was -0.1% (unchanged from April), and PPI was -3.3% (down from -2.7% in April), indicating continued deflation and favoring dividend styles[16]. 4. Factor Name: US Treasury Yields - **Factor Construction Idea**: Rising US Treasury yields lead to foreign capital outflows and reduced global risk appetite, negatively impacting high-growth sectors with high valuations[16]. - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Monitor the 10-year US Treasury yield. 2. As of June 2025, the yield remained at a high level of 4.35%, suppressing growth styles[16]. 5. Factor Name: Capital Flow Indicators - **Factor Construction Idea**: Reflects foreign capital's willingness to flow into the domestic market, influenced by factors like the USD index, RMB offshore exchange rate, and CDS spreads[17]. - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Construct a composite index using the USD index, RMB offshore exchange rate, and CDS spreads. 2. A stronger USD, weaker RMB, and wider CDS spreads indicate reduced foreign capital inflow willingness[17]. --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Term Spread - **June 2025 Value**: 0.31 (up from 0.22 in May)[13] 2. Social Financing Growth - **May 2025 Value**: 8.7% (unchanged from April)[13] 3. CPI and PPI Quadrants - **May 2025 CPI**: -0.1% (unchanged from April) - **May 2025 PPI**: -3.3% (down from -2.7% in April)[16] 4. US Treasury Yields - **June 2025 Yield**: 4.35% (remained at a high level)[16] 5. Capital Flow Indicators - **June 2025 Observation**: Foreign capital inflow willingness improved due to reduced ETF dividend net buying and increased foreign capital inflows[9][17]

Core Viewpoint - The overall market is experiencing an upward trend, with various sectors showing positive performance, particularly in technology and healthcare, while the Hong Kong stock market is showing mixed results [1][4]. Market Performance - The overall market has risen, closing at 4.9 stars, with large, mid, and small-cap stocks all experiencing similar gains [1][2]. - Growth style stocks are performing strongly, while value style stocks show slight fluctuations [3]. Sector Analysis - Technology, ChiNext, and pharmaceutical biotechnology sectors have seen significant increases [4]. - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a slight decline after a previous rise, with its dividend index continuing to increase [4]. Investment Strategies - The "Yuexinbao" investment strategy has reached a historical high, with plans to adjust the stock-bond ratio [6][7]. - The "Yuexinbao" and similar strategies benefit from declining deposit rates, leading to higher returns in 2023 compared to previous years [8]. Return Sources - Returns are derived from three main components: 1. **Equity Portion**: Focused on value style stocks, contributing stable returns through dividends and long-term price appreciation [9][11]. 2. **Bond Portion**: Emphasizes short to medium-term bonds due to current low yields in long-term bonds [12]. 3. **Rebalancing**: Adjusting the portfolio to maintain target allocations, which can enhance returns during market fluctuations [13][18]. Historical Performance - A rebalancing opportunity occurred in February 2024, where the "Yuexinbao" strategy saw a significant recovery, with stock assets increasing by approximately 30% from February to June [19][21]. Dividend Index Valuation - The current valuation of various dividend indices indicates some are still undervalued, but they are approaching normal valuation levels [29].

【 导读 】 昨日股市调整，股票 ETF净流 入资金 超36 亿元 中国基金报记者 李树超 7月2日，A股 市场 调整， 三大股指收跌。海洋经济概念股逆 市 大涨，光伏板块集体反弹，军工、半导体板块领跌。 股市震荡回调 之际 ，资金借道股票ETF净流入 超36 亿元。 其中，港股通创新药ETF、 科创50ETF等产品净流入居前，上证50ETF、沪 深300ETF等宽基ETF净流出靠前。 昨日 净流 入资金 超36 亿元 Wind数据显示，截至 7 月 2 日，全市场 1133 只股票ETF（含跨境ETF）总规模达3. 58 万亿元。在 昨日 股市 震荡 行情中， 股票ETF 市场总份额增加 40.54 亿份，按照区间成交均价测算， 净流 入 资金为 36.1 亿元。 从大类型来看，上一交易日行业主题ETF与债券ETF净流入居前，分别达30.45亿元与7.82亿元 。 具体到指数维度， 昨日 科创50 指数ETF资金 净流入居前，达12.09亿元 。 宽基ETF中，昨日科创50ETF资金净流入近6.5亿元，中证1000ETF、中证500ETF华夏净流入 也 超4亿元 ，均位居市场前列 。 谈及A 股 后市表现 ...

Market Performance - On July 1, A-shares showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.39% to 3457.75 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.11%, and the ChiNext Index fell by 0.24% [1] - The total trading volume in A-shares reached 1.5 trillion yuan [1] Banking Sector Insights - Bank stocks regained momentum, with Suzhou Bank rising over 5%, and both China Construction Bank and Shanghai Pudong Development Bank increasing by over 2% to reach new highs [1] - Among 42 banks listed, 39 are expected to distribute cash dividends in 2024 that exceed the previous year, with an overall increase in dividend payouts by 18.6 billion yuan [1] ETF Performance - Various banking ETFs, including Bank AH Preferred ETF and Bank ETF Index Fund, saw gains of over 1%, with year-to-date increases exceeding 16% [1] - Specific performance data for banking ETFs includes: - Bank AH Preferred ETF: +1.70% (YTD +23.70%) - Bank ETF Index Fund: +1.65% (YTD +17.33%) - Bank ETF: +1.52% (YTD +16.97%) [2] Fund Inflows - In June, there was a net inflow of funds into banking ETFs, with Bank ETF receiving 3.377 billion yuan, Bank ETF Tianhong 736 million yuan, and Bank AH Preferred ETF 411 million yuan [5][7] - The total net inflow into banking stocks reached 104.35 billion yuan in 2024, accounting for 3.2% of the current free float market value of banks [9] Investment Strategies - Analysts suggest that the banking sector is benefiting from policy catalysts and that cyclical stocks may present alpha opportunities [10] - Specific banks to watch include: - For cyclical strategies: Ningbo Bank, Postal Savings Bank, China Merchants Bank, and Changshu Bank - For dividend strategies: Shanghai Bank, China Merchants Bank, Jiangsu Bank, Chongqing Bank, and others showing positive fundamental changes [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the banking sector, indicating a positive outlook for bank stocks despite recent short-term corrections [4]. Core Insights - The banking sector is expected to maintain its performance due to the relative advantage of dividend yields, stable earnings, and predictable dividends. The average dividend yield for major state-owned banks is 4.07%, with a significant spread of 2.42% over the 10-year government bond yield, placing it in the 49.10th percentile over the past decade [1][17]. - The report highlights that the insurance sector is likely to increase its allocation to high-dividend bank stocks, especially with anticipated reductions in preset interest rates for insurance products [1]. - The report anticipates a stable profit growth for banks, with a projected profit growth rate of 2.35% for listed banks in 2024, supported by substantial unrealized gains from self-owned bonds and a robust provisioning coverage ratio of 238% as of Q1 2025 [3][7]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Market Performance - The banking index experienced a nearly 3% decline on June 27, 2025, but the overall market sentiment remains positive due to the sector's dividend yield advantages and stable earnings [1]. Section 2: Fund Flows - Since the beginning of 2025, southbound funds have significantly increased their allocation to Hong Kong bank stocks, with a net inflow of approximately 680 billion yuan, of which 146.2 billion yuan is directed towards bank stocks [2]. Section 3: Earnings Stability - Historical data indicates that the banking sector has low earnings volatility, with profits showing stable positive growth. The report emphasizes the importance of unrealized gains from bond investments and strong provisioning as key factors supporting profit stability [3][7][8]. Section 4: Sector Outlook - The report suggests that while short-term export impacts may arise from tariff policies, long-term domestic policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market and boosting consumption will benefit the banking sector. Specific banks such as Ningbo Bank, Postal Savings Bank, and China Merchants Bank are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [9]. Section 5: Key Data Tracking - The report includes various financial metrics, such as the average daily trading volume of stocks at 14,868.42 billion yuan and a margin balance of 1.83 trillion yuan, indicating active market engagement [10].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has shown strong performance in the first half of 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index stabilizing above 3400 points and reaching a new high for the year [1] Group 1: Investment Strategies for the Second Half - Investors often mistakenly believe that strong-performing funds from the first half will continue to perform well in the second half, which is a significant misconception in fund investment [3] - The best-performing funds in the first half of 2023 were those focused on the Hong Kong innovative pharmaceutical sector, with several ETFs and equity funds achieving over 50% gains [4] - Historical data indicates that funds that performed well in the first half often see a decline in performance by the end of the year, as seen with AI and gaming-focused funds in 2023 [4][5] Group 2: Focus Areas for Investment - The technology growth sector is expected to become a key market focus again in the second half, driven by strong performances in the U.S. stock market, particularly in AI-related companies [6] - The robotics sector remains a promising area for investment, with several funds achieving over 40% gains despite previous adjustments due to valuation concerns [7] - Dividend funds are gaining popularity due to their stable cash flow and bond-like characteristics, with many achieving positive returns in 2023 [10] Group 3: REITs Market Expansion - The REITs market has been expanding, with a total of 73 products now available, focusing on emerging sectors like new infrastructure and smart cities [12] - REITs have shown strong performance in 2023, with specific products like the Jia Shi Wu Mei Consumption REIT and Hua Xia Da Yue Cheng Commercial REIT achieving over 50% and 49.58% gains, respectively [12]