Economic Performance - China's GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of the year, exceeding expectations and improving by 0.3 percentage points compared to the same period last year and the entire previous year [1] - Domestic demand contributed 68.8% to economic growth, showcasing strong resilience amid external pressures [2] - The import and export scale reached 20 trillion yuan, with exports increasing by 7.2% [2] Policy Measures - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has fully allocated 800 billion yuan for "two heavy" construction projects and 735 billion yuan for central budget investments [1] - A total of 690 million yuan in special bonds for consumer goods replacement has been allocated, with plans for a fourth batch of 690 million yuan to be disbursed in October, completing the annual target of 300 billion yuan [1] - The NDRC aims to enhance support for the artificial intelligence industry, focusing on optimizing the innovation ecosystem and increasing policy support [2] Investment and Consumption - The NDRC plans to promote healthy and sustainable consumption growth, including measures to steadily increase residents' income and foster domestic products [3] - There will be efforts to expand effective investment, including the establishment of new policy financial tools and encouraging private enterprises to participate in major national projects [3] - The NDRC will also work on reform measures to stimulate domestic demand and enhance the role of private investment in various sectors [3][4] Market Regulation - The NDRC aims to address issues of "involution," disorderly competition, and market disarray by combining effective market mechanisms with proactive government actions [4] - Measures will be taken to regulate low-price competition and ensure fair pricing practices among enterprises [4][5] - The NDRC will develop a comprehensive action plan to promote a unified national market, focusing on regulatory measures and improving market access [5]

Core Viewpoint - The central bank and the China Securities Regulatory Commission have released the "Financial Infrastructure Supervision and Management Measures," emphasizing the need for a modernized financial infrastructure system that prioritizes public interest and operational efficiency [1]. Group 1: Financial Infrastructure Management - Financial infrastructure management departments are required to enhance planning and guidance to promote orderly interconnectivity among financial infrastructures [1]. - The measures call for continuous optimization of the financial infrastructure layout based on safety and efficiency principles [1]. - There is a focus on strengthening the governance system of financial infrastructures to ensure that operational institutions prioritize public interest over profit maximization and risk-taking [1]. Group 2: Regulatory and Operational Guidelines - The guidelines advocate for a balanced approach that supports both market services and regulatory oversight [1]. - New financial infrastructure projects should be cautiously undertaken, particularly those that impact national financial security and have significant externalities, ensuring absolute national control [1].

Group 1 - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) is addressing the issue of excessive competition in certain industries by conducting targeted cost investigations to understand the operational conditions of enterprises and encourage them to self-regulate pricing behaviors [2][3] - The NDRC emphasizes that while competition is essential for market economy, excessive and disorderly low-price competition can lead to negative outcomes such as quality decline and infringement, harming consumer rights and dragging down industry development [2][3] - The NDRC is accelerating the revision of the pricing law, which will clarify standards for identifying unfair pricing behaviors, focusing on practices that aim to eliminate competitors or monopolize markets, including the regulation of service pricing under low-price dumping [2][3] Group 2 - The NDRC plans to strengthen policy promotion and reminders, targeting industries with significant issues related to excessive competition, and will conduct cost investigations to ensure enterprises adhere to proper pricing practices [3] - A mechanism for regular problem collection, verification, and reporting will be established to hold accountable those obstructing the construction of a unified market, with severe cases being reported to relevant authorities for strict accountability [3] - The focus on institutional development includes achieving uniformity in property rights protection, market access, fair competition, and social credit quality standards, as well as creating a list of behaviors that hinder a unified market and fair competition [4]

提振消费大力发展服务消费 今年以来，居民消费需求持续释放，市场供给不断优化，但消费市场回升基础仍需巩固，居民消费信心依然有待增强。专家表 示，本次中央政治局会议强调，要继续深入实施提振消费专项行动，有效释放内需潜力。会议强调，在扩大商品消费的同时，培育服 务消费新的增长点。在保障改善民生中扩大消费需求。 专家称，必须通过体制机制、基础变量的一些调整来产生稳定的消费扩张和消费率的提升。因此，保证居民收入、保证居民资产 负债表、保证社会保障体系和民生建设，是扩消费很重要的抓手。 央视网消息：7月30日，中共中央政治局召开会议，分析研究当前经济形势，部署下半年经济工作。专家表示，这次会议对于"十 四五"圆满收官，开启"十五五"新局面作出了细致部署，指明了重要方向。 政策"持续发力适时加力"强化民生导向 会议指出做好下半年经济工作，要坚持稳中求进工作总基调，保持政策连续性稳定性，增强灵活性预见性，努力完成全年经济社 会发展目标任务，实现"十四五"圆满收官。特别是，宏观政策要持续发力、适时加力。中国宏观经济研究院院长黄汉权表示，下半年 会发生一些变化，跟上半年有不一样的地方，这种情况下就必须要增加政策灵活性，要使得政策 ...

Core Viewpoint - The State Taxation Administration is actively supporting the construction of a unified national market by implementing measures to address tax-related issues in irregular investment promotion and ensuring fair competition among regions [1][3]. Group 1: Measures Taken - The tax authorities have initiated a special governance program targeting tax issues related to irregular investment promotion, focusing on preventing local governments from engaging in unfair competition through tax incentives [3]. - A monitoring system based on big data has been established to track anomalies in tax declarations, income, and exemptions, leading to the identification and investigation of over 3,000 suspicious cases [3]. - The tax administration has unified enforcement standards across six major regions to eliminate discrepancies in tax policy interpretation and enforcement [3]. Group 2: Legal and Fair Competition - The tax authorities are working to create a fair tax environment for various business entities while improving tax policies and legal frameworks [4]. - Adjustments have been made to the tax payment location for individuals transferring restricted shares of listed companies, moving it from the account opening location to the company's location to prevent tax evasion through account transfers [5]. - The implementation of the "Regulations on Tax Information Reporting by Internet Platform Enterprises" aims to promote fair competition between online and offline markets [5].

Group 1 - The meeting emphasized the importance of stabilizing economic growth and improving expectations in the second half of the year, recognizing both external uncertainties and domestic challenges [2] - It was noted that the basic trend of economic recovery and long-term growth remains unchanged, with positive factors for steady economic growth continuously accumulating [2] - The meeting called for confidence and efforts to stabilize employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations to ensure the completion of annual goals and the successful conclusion of the "14th Five-Year Plan" [2] Group 2 - The focus is on boosting consumption to expand domestic demand comprehensively, including optimizing policies for replacing old consumer goods and promoting high-end consumption [3] - There is a push for infrastructure construction in key areas such as transportation, water conservancy, energy, and digital information to support early production and effectiveness of industrial projects [3] - The meeting highlighted the need to stabilize foreign trade and foreign investment, encouraging enterprises to explore diverse markets and enhance the resilience and vitality of the industrial supply chain [3] Group 3 - The meeting included video connections to various cities to hear reports on the province's economic performance in the first half of the year, with contributions from departments such as the Provincial Industry and Information Technology Department and the Provincial Commerce Department [4]

Report Overview - The report aims to objectively reflect the research views of futures and securities companies on various commodity varieties, track hot varieties, analyze market investment sentiment, and summarize investment driving logics [2] - The strategy views and investment logics in the report are based on the publicly released research reports of institutions in the current week, and the closing price data is from last Friday, with the weekly change calculated as the change compared to the closing price of the previous Friday [2] Market Data Commodities - Positive weekly changes were seen in螺纹钢 (2.57%), 铁矿石 (2.23%), 生猪 (2.14%), 白银 (1.44%), 黄金 (1.39%), 棕榈油 (1.15%), 原油 (1.00%), 焦炭 (0.81%), 玻璃 (0.69%), 豆粕 (0.27%), 铝 (0.27%), 甲醇 (0.25%), and 乙二醇 (0.14%) - Negative weekly changes were observed in 铜 (-0.24%), PVC (-0.26%), 玉米 (-1.30%), and PTA (-1.42%) [3] A - shares - Positive weekly changes were recorded in 沪深300 (1.54%), 上证50 (1.21%), and 中证500 (0.81%) [3] Overseas Stocks - Positive weekly changes were seen in 标普500 (1.72%), 纳斯达克指数 (1.62%), and 富时100 (0.27%) - Negative weekly changes were observed in 法国CAC40 (-0.85%), 日经225 (-1.52%), and 恒生指数 (-0.28%) [3][4] Bonds - Negative weekly changes were recorded in 中国国债10 - year (-0.06%), 中国国债2 - year (-0.85%), and 中国国债5 - year (-1.52%) [4] Foreign Exchange - Negative weekly changes were observed in 欧元兑美元 (-0.48%), 美元中间价 (-0.91%), and 美元指数 (-1.49%) [4] Commodity Views Macro - financial Sector Stock Index Futures - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 2 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend - Bullish logics: 6 - month PMI data improved marginally; last week's net financing purchase funds continued to increase; the Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission meeting emphasized "anti - involution" in the construction of a unified market, raising expectations for a new round of supply - side reform; industrial shareholder shareholding reductions increased while company buybacks significantly increased; average daily trading volume was 1.44 trillion yuan, slightly higher than last week - Bearish logics: US employment data was strong, reducing short - term interest rate cut expectations; after the small - and medium - cap stocks rose, the market's willingness to reduce holdings was strong; current indices are approaching last October's highs, and valuations are higher than historical averages; Trump pressured countries on tariffs again, increasing uncertainties [5] Treasury Bond Futures - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 3 are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend - Bullish logics: Monetary policy is expected to be loose, maintaining a relatively loose liquidity environment; government bond supply pressure is controllable, and the issuance rhythm is stable; in the first and middle of the month, the capital market is seasonally loose, and DR007 remains in a low range; weak fundamental recovery supports the bond market - Bearish logics: June PMI rebounded month - on - month, showing economic resilience; long - term bond prices are high, and more momentum is needed to break through previous highs; fiscal policy efforts may drive a phased improvement in economic data [5] Energy Sector Crude Oil - Strategy views: Among 9 institutions, 1 is bullish, 2 are bearish, and 6 expect a sideways trend - Bullish logics: The Northern Hemisphere is still in the peak oil consumption season; crude oil inventories continue to decline; Russia is gradually implementing production cuts; there may be a new round of fiscal expansion due to the US tax - cut bill; oil price downside risks have been largely released after a significant previous decline - Bearish logics: OPEC+ maintains its stance of increasing production, and the pace is faster than expected; the Israel - Iran conflict has ended, and geopolitical risks in the Middle East continue to decline; during the autumn maintenance of global refineries, a supply - demand mismatch may lead to a significant increase in crude oil inventories; crude oil supply in North America has increased [6] Agricultural Products Sector Palm Oil - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 2 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend - Bullish logics: The US 45Z Act was passed, boosting the demand for biodiesel, soybean oil, and palm oil; India's palm oil imports soared by 61% in June, showing strong demand; institutions expect a decline in Malaysia's palm oil production and an increase in exports in June, with a slight expected decline in inventory; Indonesia raised the reference price of crude palm oil in July, indicating a strong willingness to support prices - Bearish logics: The arrival volume of palm oil in China has increased, the basis has weakened, and import profits are inverted; global tariff disputes have intensified, and macro risks have dampened market sentiment; oil mills have high operating rates, and the accumulation of soybean oil inventory suppresses the overall performance of oils and fats [6] Non - ferrous Metals Sector Aluminum - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 0 are bullish, 3 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend - Bullish logics: The macro - environment has improved, boosting market sentiment and aluminum prices; the recovery of the monthly spread shows strong industrial support under low inventories; the increase in the proportion of aluminum water in the industry delays the accumulation of visible inventories; aluminum ingot inventories remain at a low level, providing support for prices - Bearish logics: The social inventory of aluminum ingots has shown an inflection point of accumulation, weakening the support; the processing fee of downstream aluminum rods has fallen to negative, which may trigger a negative feedback in the industrial chain; high aluminum prices have suppressed downstream purchasing willingness, and the spot price has turned to a discount; the demand for photovoltaic components and exports has shown a downward inflection point; terminal demand has entered the off - season, and orders have significantly declined [7] Chemicals Sector Glass - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 0 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 6 expect a sideways trend - Bullish logics: The spot market has formed a positive feedback, and price increases in areas such as Shahe have driven the sentiment of taking positions in the spot and futures markets; the expectation of seasonal improvement in demand in the second half of the year has increased, and the marginal improvement in apparent demand is evident; prices are at a low level, and there is a need for valuation repair - Bearish logics: Warehouse receipts in Hubei are suppressing the futures market, and the high - inventory pressure has not been alleviated; the glass produced by previously ignited production lines is gradually coming onto the market, slightly increasing supply pressure; the sustainability of inventory hoarding by the trading end is questionable, and there may be another round of destocking after the mid - stream replenishment; the weak trend in the real estate sector has not changed clearly, and insufficient terminal orders are suppressing demand elasticity [7] Precious Metals Sector Gold - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 4 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 2 expect a sideways trend - Bullish logics: The expansion of the US fiscal deficit and the rising debt risk have increased the demand for gold as a safe - haven asset; global central banks continue to increase their gold holdings, and the willingness to further increase holdings in the future is high; there is a potential downward revision risk in non - farm payroll data and a possible rebound in the unemployment rate, strengthening the expectation of interest rate cuts; high uncertainty in trade policies and the trend of anti - globalization support safe - haven assets - Bearish logics: The tariff negotiation has been postponed to August 1st, leading to a temporary rebound in market risk appetite; the US dollar index may rebound after a continuous decline, suppressing the price of gold; the easing of the Middle East situation has weakened the geopolitical premium, and speculative long - positions have taken profits [8] Black Metals Sector Coking Coal - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 2 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend - Bullish logics: Downstream coking and steel enterprises are replenishing inventories periodically, and coking coal trading is good; the "anti - involution" policy has raised expectations for supply - side reform, boosting market sentiment; the customs clearance of Mongolian coal is low, and prices have rebounded; the inventory at ports and mines has decreased well, and spot prices are stable with a slight increase - Bearish logics: Previously shut - down coal mines are gradually resuming production, and the marginal increase in supply is suppressing price increases; after the spot price rebounds, the pressure from hedging positions appears, and the basis repair may limit the upward movement; after the fourth round of price cuts for coke, the futures market has priced in the expected price increase; the rebound is a repair of low valuations, and further upward movement requires improvement in demand [8]

Report Investment Rating - The investment rating for the stock index futures is a fluctuating and moderately bullish pattern [1] Core Viewpoints - The market's center of gravity continued to rise last week, with a late - stage rally followed by a decline. The core driver of last week's market was the China Central Finance and Economics Commission meeting on the 1st, which emphasized "anti - involution" through the construction of a unified market, leading to a sharp increase in market expectations for a new round of supply - side reform. The value style outperformed last week, with IH and IF stronger than IC and IM, mainly due to the rise of cyclical products. Overseas, the US "Great Beauty Act" was passed, non - farm payroll data was better than expected, and tariff negotiations were underway, causing the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to reach new highs [1] - Currently, the external geopolitical situation is calm, global risk assets are performing strongly, and the domestic economic outlook has shifted from pessimistic to stable, with structural reforms starting to take effect. The risk appetite in the stock market continues to recover, which is an important basis for the current long - position pattern of stock index futures. However, there is a lack of momentum for marginally positive surprises. As long as there are no unexpected changes in external forces and no intensification of domestic structural adjustments, the current pattern of fluctuating upward is expected to continue [2] Summary by Directory Market Review and Outlook - **Market Performance**: Last week, the market's center of gravity rose, with a late - stage rally followed by a decline. In terms of sectors, steel, building materials, and banks led the gains, while computer, non - bank finance, and beauty care led the losses. The value style outperformed, with IH and IF stronger than IC and IM, mainly due to the rise of cyclical products. Overseas, the US "Great Beauty Act" was passed, non - farm payroll data was better than expected, and tariff negotiations were underway, causing the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to reach new highs [1] - **Future Outlook**: The current external geopolitical situation is calm, global risk assets are performing strongly, and the domestic economic outlook has shifted from pessimistic to stable, with structural reforms starting to take effect. The risk appetite in the stock market continues to recover, which is an important basis for the current long - position pattern of stock index futures. However, there is a lack of momentum for marginally positive surprises. As long as there are no unexpected changes in external forces and no intensification of domestic structural adjustments, the current pattern of fluctuating upward is expected to continue. This week, attention should be paid to the release of June economic data in China [2] - **Factors to Watch**: Domestic economy and overseas tariff negotiation progress [3] Strategy Recommendations - **Short - term Strategy**: For intraday trading, refer to the 1 - minute and 5 - minute K - line charts. Set stop - loss and take - profit levels for IF, IH, IC, and IM at 76 points/95 points, 58 points/31 points, 66 points/121 points, and 84 points/142 points respectively [4] - **Trend Strategy**: Adopt a strategy of buying on dips. The core operating range for the IF2507 main contract is between 3826 and 4024 points; for the IH2507 main contract, between 2649 and 2772 points; for the IC2507 main contract, between 5646 and 6025 points; and for the IM2507 main contract, between 5970 and 6372 points [4] - **Cross - variety Strategy**: Due to the frequent switching between value and growth styles recently, it is advisable to wait and see [5] Spot Market Review - **Global Stock Index Performance**: Last week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 2.3%, the S&P 500 rose 1.72%, and the Nasdaq rose 1.62%. In Europe, the UK's FTSE 100 rose 0.27%, Germany's DAX fell 1.02%, and France's CAC 40 rose 0.06%. In the Asia - Pacific market, Japan's Nikkei 225 fell 0.85%, and the Hang Seng Index fell 1.52% [8] - **Domestic Index Performance**: Since 2025, major domestic indices have risen. Last week, all major domestic indices also showed an upward trend [8] Index Valuation Tracking - As of June 27, the TTM price - to - earnings ratio of the Shanghai Composite Index was 14.93 times, the TTM price - to - earnings ratio of the CSI 300 Index was 13.02 times, the TTM price - to - earnings ratio of the SSE 50 Index was 11.18 times, the TTM price - to - earnings ratio of the CSI 500 Index was 27.66 times, and the TTM price - to - earnings ratio of the CSI 1000 Index was 36.02 times [19][20] Market Capital Flow Review - **Investor and Fund Data**: The number of new investors in the two markets and the share of newly established equity - biased funds are presented in relevant charts. Last week, the capital interest rate declined, and the central bank had a net withdrawal of funds [22]

Group 1 - The central theme of the meeting is the importance of "unifying government behavior standards" to facilitate the construction of a unified national market, addressing issues such as local government overreach and market interference [1][3] - The meeting emphasizes the need to focus on key challenges, including the regulation of low-price disorderly competition and the orderly exit of outdated production capacity, which are often linked to inappropriate actions by local governments [1][2] - The meeting outlines that the "unified government behavior standards" should ensure consistent market access and fair competition across different regions, preventing local protectionism and arbitrary barriers [3][4] Group 2 - The meeting highlights the negative impact of local government subsidies and policies on industries like solar energy, leading to overcapacity and market inefficiencies [2] - It is noted that local governments often create unfair competitive conditions through preferential policies that harm the principle of fair competition in a unified market [2][3] - The concept of "unified standards" is proposed to include both spatial and temporal dimensions, ensuring that all government actions adhere to the same guidelines and maintain policy continuity [3][4]

Group 1 - The recent issuance of the "Opinions on Improving the Social Credit System" by the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council signifies a systematic deployment for enhancing the social credit system [1] - Significant progress has been made in the construction of the social credit system in China, which has played a crucial role in optimizing the business environment, promoting financial services for the real economy, and improving government governance and service efficiency [1] - The establishment of a national credit information sharing platform has greatly improved the level of credit information sharing, and the legal and standardized foundation of the social credit system has been continuously strengthened [1] Group 2 - The construction of government integrity is highlighted as a key aspect of the social credit system, emphasizing that the integrity of various administrative entities serves as a crucial model and guiding force for overall social credit construction [2] - Policies aimed at enhancing credit management for business entities are proposed, including providing conveniences or benefits for trustworthy entities in public services and supporting financial institutions in leveraging credit information [2] - The implementation of a credit commitment system in administrative approvals and credit restoration is expected to alleviate the financing difficulties faced by private and small to medium-sized enterprises, thereby stimulating market vitality [2] Group 3 - The recent introduction of a series of reform and opening-up policies, including the release of the "Negative List for Market Access (2025 Edition)," aims to reduce the number of restricted items to 106, thereby easing entry restrictions in various industries [3] - The promotion of the private economy law emphasizes the legal protection of the personal rights, property rights, and operational autonomy of private economic organizations and their operators [3] - The acceleration of the establishment of foundational market economy systems, including property rights protection, market access, fair competition, and social credit, is expected to enhance China's market strength and resilience in facing changes [3]