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美债收益率集体上涨,10年期美债收益率涨2.92个基点
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-08-21 22:40
Group 1 - The core point of the article is the collective increase in U.S. Treasury yields across various maturities on August 21, with notable rises in short-term and long-term bonds [1][2] Group 2 - The 2-year Treasury yield rose by 4.19 basis points to 3.781% [1] - The 3-year Treasury yield increased by 3.92 basis points to 3.736% [1] - The 5-year Treasury yield went up by 3.49 basis points to 3.841% [1] - The 10-year Treasury yield climbed by 2.92 basis points to 4.316% [1] - The 30-year Treasury yield saw an increase of 2.14 basis points to 4.908% [1]
复盘:供给如何影响美债价格?
INDUSTRIAL SECURITIES· 2025-08-21 14:18
Group 1: Market Trends and Influences - The implementation of the "Inflation Reduction Act" has raised concerns about increased U.S. Treasury supply in the second half of the year due to tax cuts and higher debt ceilings[2] - After the debt ceiling was lifted in June 2023, U.S. Treasury yields entered an upward trend, influenced by supply acceleration, economic resilience, and tight monetary policy[4] - In Q3 2023, U.S. Treasury yields rose contrary to economic weakness, primarily driven by increased bond supply[4] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The Treasury's net financing demand for Q3 2023 was significantly raised to $1.007 trillion, the second-highest since 2021, exceeding the previous estimate of $733 billion[40] - Actual supply exceeded planned issuance, with August 2023 seeing an additional $59.1 billion issued compared to plans, contributing to rising yields[4] - Demand for U.S. Treasuries weakened, with major buyers like the Federal Reserve and foreign investors reducing holdings, leading to a shift towards more price-sensitive buyers[64] Group 3: Yield and Volatility Analysis - The yield curve inversion deepened as short-term debt supply increased and was more sensitive to monetary policy, with the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yield spread widening in May 2023 and narrowing in September[4] - The MOVE index, which measures bond market volatility, remained elevated in the second half of 2023, reflecting uncertainty in monetary policy and economic resilience[4] - The 10-year Treasury yield's term premium rose significantly after the debt ceiling was lifted, indicating increased market concerns about future supply[20]
美债收益率多数下跌,10年期美债收益率跌1.94个基点
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-08-20 22:49
Group 1 - The core point of the article is the movement of U.S. Treasury yields, with most yields declining on August 20 [1] Group 2 - The 2-year Treasury yield increased by 0.18 basis points to 3.739% [1] - The 3-year Treasury yield decreased by 0.84 basis points to 3.697% [1] - The 5-year Treasury yield fell by 1.23 basis points to 3.806% [1] - The 10-year Treasury yield dropped by 1.94 basis points to 4.287% [1] - The 30-year Treasury yield decreased by 1.83 basis points to 4.887% [1]
美债收益率止跌回落 投资者押注美联储9月启动降息
智通财经网· 2025-08-19 22:32
Group 1 - US Treasury yields reversed a three-day decline, with rates falling across the board as investors bet on a potential Fed rate cut in September and awaited Fed Chair Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole conference [1] - The 10-year benchmark yield dropped to 4.30%, ending a sell-off that began after the July PPI recorded its largest increase in three years, raising market concerns [1] - The probability of a Fed rate cut in September has risen to approximately 80%, although strategists caution that the final decision will depend on upcoming economic data [1][2] Group 2 - S&P Global maintained the US long-term sovereign credit rating at AA+, noting that tariff revenues from the Trump administration will partially offset the fiscal impact of large tax cuts [1][2] - July saw US tariff revenues reach a record high of $28 billion, which is viewed positively by the White House as it emphasizes the benefits of tariff policies on US fiscal health [2] - S&P's outlook indicates that US net government debt is expected to exceed 100% of GDP over the next three years, but the average fiscal deficit from 2025 to 2028 is projected to be 6%, lower than last year's 7.5% [3]
美债收益率集体下跌,10年期美债收益率跌2.54个基点
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-08-19 22:15
(文章来源:每日经济新闻) 每经AI快讯,周二(8月19日),美债收益率集体下跌,2年期美债收益率跌1.69个基点报3.738%,3年 期美债收益率跌1.67个基点报3.706%,5年期美债收益率跌2.27个基点报3.819%,10年期美债收益率跌 2.54个基点报4.306%,30年期美债收益率跌2.86个基点报4.905%。 ...
华泰证券:美国关税传导或更为显性但短期影响可控,维持中长期美元面临贬值压力观点
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-08-18 23:56
Core Viewpoint - Current data indicates that the impact of tariffs on U.S. inflation remains relatively mild, with core CPI in May-June 2025 falling short of expectations, showing a month-on-month increase of only 0.1-0.2% [1] Group 1: Tariff Impact on Inflation - The limited impact of tariffs on inflation is attributed to several factors: significant inventory accumulation by companies, a temporary buffer against rising tariffs, a weighted import tariff rate lower than theoretical values, weak corporate demand, and low service inflation [1] - It is expected that tariffs will moderately increase U.S. core inflation in the third quarter, although there is market disagreement regarding the magnitude and duration of this inflation rise [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The Federal Reserve is likely to restart the interest rate cut cycle in September, despite anticipated inflation recovery in the third quarter having limited constraints on the Fed's rate cuts in 2025 [1] - Short-term inflation recovery is expected to have a limited impact on U.S. Treasury yields, although the implementation of the "Big and Beautiful" Act may still exert pressure on these yields [1] Group 3: Broader Economic Considerations - Attention should be paid to potential buffers created by financial deregulation, expansion of stablecoins, and changes in U.S. Treasury issuance structure, which may influence the economic landscape [1] - The long-term outlook suggests that the U.S. dollar may face depreciation pressure [1]
美债收益率多数上涨,10年期美债收益率涨1.37个基点
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-08-18 22:17
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that U.S. Treasury yields mostly increased on August 18, with specific changes in various maturities [1][2] Group 2 - The 2-year Treasury yield rose by 1.44 basis points to 3.755% [1] - The 3-year Treasury yield decreased by 0.27 basis points to 3.722% [1] - The 5-year Treasury yield increased by 0.70 basis points to 3.841% [1] - The 10-year Treasury yield rose by 1.37 basis points to 4.332% [1] - The 30-year Treasury yield increased by 1.64 basis points to 4.934% [1]
美债收益率集体上涨,10年期美债收益率涨3.11个基点
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-08-16 00:49
每经AI快讯,周五(8月15日),美债收益率集体上涨,2年期美债收益率涨1.60个基点报3.740%,3年 期美债收益率涨2.79个基点报3.725%,5年期美债收益率涨1.90个基点报3.834%,10年期美债收益率涨 3.11个基点报4.318%,30年期美债收益率涨4.46个基点报4.917%。 (文章来源:每日经济新闻) ...
DLSM外汇平台:金价还能稳住高位吗 美元美债压力会让它掉头吗?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-15 10:43
北京时间8月15日,国际黄金价格在高位附近出现回调,现货黄金交投在每盎司3333.50美元左右,较前 一交易日有所下跌。周四的下行压力主要来自美国通胀数据的意外走高,以及劳动力市场的持续韧性。 DLSM外汇平台认为这两个因素推升了美元与美债收益率,从而削弱了市场对美联储下月大幅降息的预 期。 目前的黄金市场更像是一次耐心与信念的考验。多头需要等待数据的转折点,而空头则寄望于美元与美 债收益率的持续攀升。在这种不确定性中,分批布局、保持仓位灵活,或许比盲目追涨杀跌更为稳妥。 毕竟,金价的下一个方向,仍取决于宏观数据给出的答案。 市场的反应并非仅限于黄金。白银价格同样承压,现货银跌幅达到1.3%,收于每盎司37.97美元。而铂 金和钯金则表现相对坚挺,分别上涨1.1%和2%。这种分化反映出不同贵金属在工业用途与投资避险功 能上的权重差异:铂金和钯金更多与汽车制造和工业需求挂钩,对美元波动的敏感度低于黄金和白银。 短期来看,黄金市场的多空博弈正在进入一个微妙阶段。一方面,宏观经济仍面临放缓压力,地缘局势 也未完全平息,这为黄金提供了中长期支撑。另一方面,美国的经济数据却一次次展示出韧性,尤其是 在通胀与就业指标上, ...
PPI增速超预期击退9月降息50基点押注 美债收益率全面回升
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-08-15 01:23
新华财经北京8月15日电美国国债收益率周四(8月14日)普遍上涨超过5个基点,当天公布的美国7月 PPI环比增速创三年新高,令市场对美联储将于9月降息50个基点的预期全面消退。 美国劳工统计局周四公布数据显示,7月美国生产者价格指数(PPI)环比上涨0.9%,涨幅创2022年6月 以来新高,远超市场预期的0.2%;7月PPI同比上涨 3.3%,也超过预期的2.5%。剔除能源和食品的7月核 心PPI环比增长0.9%,同比增长3.7%,同样远超市场预期的0.2%和2.9%。 数据公布后,市场通胀预期大幅升温,令交易员减少了对美联储将在9月降息的押注,美债收益率盘中 显著拉升。至尾盘时段,10年期美债收益率上涨5.23个基点,报4.2849%;2年期美债收益率涨5.79个基 点,报3.7324%。美国10年期通胀保值国债(TIPS)收益率涨3.21个基点,报1.8862%。 PPI报告显示,随着特朗普关税政策愈发清晰,尽管上半年需求相对走软,美国企业仍然积极调整商品 与服务的定价,以帮助抵消与更高美国关税相关联的成本效应。 Nationwide高级经济学家本·艾尔斯在一份报告中表示:"尽管企业迄今为止已承担了大部分 ...