本周美债收益率走势呈现波动态势，前期曾因降息预期推迟而短暂上行。根据最新就业与通胀数据，掉期市场目前定价美联储将在6月首次降息25个基点， 并在今年晚些时候再次降息。 近期美债市场波动显著，美债价格持续上涨，推动30年期美债收益率跌至今年以来最低点。 各期限美债收益率同步下行，市场对美联储未来利率路径的预期分歧扩大，成为当前焦点。 截至周三收盘，美债市场全面走强，各期限收益率普遍下跌2至5个基点。30年期国债收益率跌破4.80%关口，收盘位于200日均线下方。自去年12月初以 来，该期限收益率收盘首次低于这一均线，反映市场对长期美债的配置需求增强。 避险需求释放支撑了本轮美债反弹。美国股市下跌促使资金流向美债市场。最高法院对相关政策裁决的推迟，改善了市场对美国财政前景的预期，提振了美 债配置意愿。 供应端同样传递积极信号。此前两个交易日的国债拍卖需求强劲，显示市场认购热情高涨。周三下午纽约时段，美国财政部针对20至30年期国债的例行回购 操作，直接增加了长期债券需求，压低了30年期收益率。英债市场上涨亦对美债形成联动支撑。 期权市场则呈现相反预期。部分交易员正排除2026年降息的可能性，转向押注美联储全年维持 ...

每经AI快讯，周三(1月14日)，美债收益率集体下跌，2年期美债收益率跌1.86个基点报3.510%，3年期 美债收益率跌2.50个基点报3.561%，5年期美债收益率跌4.01个基点报3.712%，10年期美债收益率跌4.33 个基点报4.132%，30年期美债收益率跌5.07个基点报4.785%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The rise in demand for safe-haven assets and factors related to bond supply have led to an increase in U.S. Treasury prices, resulting in the 30-year Treasury yield dropping to its lowest level of the year [1] Group 1: Treasury Yield Movements - The yields on U.S. Treasuries across various maturities fell by at least 2 basis points, with the highest decline reaching 4 basis points [1] - The 30-year Treasury yield has fallen below 4.80% for the first time this year, marking a significant drop below the 200-day moving average [1] - This is the first time since early December that the 30-year yield is expected to close below the 200-day moving average [1] Group 2: Catalysts for Yield Changes - The recent decline in U.S. stock indices has contributed to increased demand for safe-haven assets [1] - Anticipation of U.S. military action against Iran has further fueled the demand for safe-haven investments [1] - The Supreme Court's postponement of a tariff ruling has improved the fiscal outlook for the U.S., adding to the demand for Treasuries [1] Group 3: Supply Factors - Strong demand was observed in recent Treasury auctions, indicating robust interest from investors [1] - A scheduled Treasury buyback operation targeting bonds maturing in 20 to 30 years is set for Wednesday afternoon [1] Group 4: International Influence - U.S. Treasuries have also been supported by rising yields in the UK, with the 10-year UK bond yield dropping to 4.35%, the lowest closing level in over a year [1]

每经AI快讯，周二(1月13日)，美债收益率涨跌不一，2年期美债收益率跌0.19个基点报3.530%，3年期 美债收益率涨0.12个基点报3.591%，5年期美债收益率跌0.17个基点报3.752%，10年期美债收益率涨0.40 个基点报4.179%，30年期美债收益率涨0.82个基点报4.837%。 ...

每经AI快讯，周一(1月12日)，美债收益率集体上涨，2年期美债收益率涨0.64个基点报3.534%，3年期 美债收益率涨0.29个基点报3.590%，5年期美债收益率涨0.53个基点报3.755%，10年期美债收益率涨1.19 个基点报4.177%，30年期美债收益率涨1.62个基点报4.828%。 ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观点评报告 2026 年 1 月 10 日 1 月降息预期打消 —2025 年 12 月美国就业数据分析 频率：每月 事件：2026 年 1 月 9 日，美国劳工统计局（BLS）发布：2025 年 12 月非农 就业人数新增 5 万人，前值 6.4 万人；失业率录得 4.4%，前值 4.6%。 点评报告 相关报告 1、《PPI 超预期回升——2025 年 12 月通胀数据点评》2026- 01-09 2、《预计 2025 年 5%收官—— 宏观经济预测报告（2025 年 12 月）》2026-01-06 3、《从"安全资产"到"地缘 安全资产"———宏观与大类 资产周报》2026-01-05 张静静 S1090522050003 zhangjingjing@cmschina.com.cn 张岸天 S1090522070002 zhangantian@cmschina.com.cn 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 宏观点评报告 图 1：时薪增速环比偏强（%） 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 ...

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，周五（1月9日），美债收益率多数上涨，2年期美债收益率涨4.60个基点报3.532%，3年期 美债收益率涨4.27个基点报3.587%，5年期美债收益率涨2.45个基点报3.750%，10年期美债收益率涨0.40 个基点报4.167%，30年期美债收益率跌2.03个基点报4.814%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming non-farm payroll report is particularly significant as it will be the first data released on time after the government shutdown, with mixed signals from previous employment data creating uncertainty in the market [1][6]. Employment Data - The previous non-farm report showed an unexpected increase of 64,000 jobs, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, the highest in four years, indicating a paradox where job growth exists but job searching has become more difficult [1][3]. - Economists predict around 73,000 new jobs for December, with a slight decrease in the unemployment rate to 4.5%, although some institutions remain less optimistic, suggesting the rate may stay at 4.6% [3][5]. - Initial jobless claims were reported at 208,000, slightly below expectations, indicating no significant layoffs, while continuing claims rose to 1.914 million, suggesting increased difficulty in finding new jobs [6][8]. Market Reactions - The rise in 10-year U.S. Treasury yields to 4.18% has created anxiety among investors, as higher yields typically pressure gold prices due to the comparative attractiveness of interest-bearing assets [3][12]. - The current economic environment is characterized by a cooling job market and a lack of clear direction in interest rates, making it challenging for gold to establish a strong upward trend [10][12]. Investor Sentiment - Consumer sentiment reflects rising inflation expectations at 3.4%, while confidence in job opportunities has dropped to the lowest level since the survey began, indicating a growing concern about the economic outlook [8][10]. - Investors are advised to consider their motivations for holding gold, as the current market volatility may not align with short-term speculative strategies but could serve as a hedge in uncertain times [12].

一、基本面 昨日1月8日（星期四），黄金早盘在4466附近受阻开始下跌，一直震荡下跌到美盘前，最低跌至4408/4407区域，美盘企稳开始上涨，收盘前最高上涨至 4479/4480区域，日线收出一根带有长下影线的阳线。 1、美国就业数据成焦点 2、四小时级别：结构层面，整体分析思路维持不变，核心仍围绕4500/4501的突破情况展开：若价格持续受限于该区间下方，需重点观察C浪调整走势；若 成功向上突破，则大概率处于第5浪上涨行情。 点位方面，下方支撑先关注4446/4445、4437/4436区域。上述两个位置分别对应黄金自4408/4407上行至4484过程中的黄金分割比例0.5及0.618对应的支撑 位，同时4446/4445区域也是凌晨金价首次冲高至4465遇阻回落后的低点位置，4437/4436区域则是欧盘及美盘初期反复承压震荡的位置，该区域突破后行情 启动加速上涨，若价格回落，需关注该区域的顶底转换效应。此外，需重点留意昨日低点4408/4407区域支撑，若金价在未突破4500/4501阻力前率先下破该 支撑位，则基本可确认行情进入C浪调整阶段。 上方阻力重点关注4500/4501，该位置为本周当前 ...

每经AI快讯，周四(1月8日)，美债收益率集体上涨，2年期美债收益率涨1.86个基点报3.488%，3年期美 债收益率涨2.83个基点报3.550%，5年期美债收益率涨2.61个基点报3.727%，10年期美债收益率涨1.97个 基点报4.167%，30年期美债收益率涨0.71个基点报4.838%。 ...