Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the fluctuations in U.S. Treasury yields, with the 10-year yield rising to 4.2747% before the release of key inflation data [1] - The 2-year Treasury yield increased by 2.35 basis points, reaching 3.6079%, and showed accelerated growth after 8:00 PM [1] - The 30-year Treasury yield decreased by 1.64 basis points, settling at 4.8457% [1] Group 2 - The 2/10 year Treasury yield spread narrowed by 1.548 basis points, now at +63.881 basis points [1] - The 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) yield rose by 1.90 basis points to 1.8804% after the auction results were released [1] - The 2-year TIPS yield increased by 3.53 basis points to 0.9974%, while the 30-year TIPS yield saw a minor rise of 0.24 basis points to 2.5838% [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Neutral [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio on rallies [9] - Options: Hold off [9] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical risks have cooled down, causing precious metals to rise and then fall. The market risk sentiment has converged, but the trading focus remains on geopolitical factors. The demand logic for gold investment remains unchanged, and the gold price is expected to be mainly in a volatile and slightly stronger pattern. Silver is expected to maintain a volatile pattern due to the slight cooling of risk sentiment [1][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Geopolitical aspect: The Greenland crisis has taken a turn. US President Trump announced an agreement framework on the Greenland issue with NATO Secretary-General Lute. If implemented, it will benefit the US and all NATO members. Trump will not implement the originally scheduled tariff measures on February 1st. Affected by this news, US stocks rose sharply, with all three major indexes rising more than 1%. The EU leaders' emergency summit will be held as planned on the evening of January 22nd local time [1]. - Economic outlook: Most economists expect the Fed to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged this quarter and may remain on hold until Fed Chairman Powell's term ends in May. This view has shifted significantly from last month when most respondents expected at least one rate cut before March. However, most economists still expect at least two rate cuts later this year [1]. Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On January 21, 2026, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 1063.00 yuan/gram, closed at 1092.30 yuan/gram, a change of 3.03% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. In the overnight session, it opened at 1097.00 yuan/gram and closed at 1091.80 yuan/gram, a 0.05% decline from the afternoon closing price [2]. - On January 21, 2026, the Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 23,660.00 yuan/kilogram, closed at 23,131.00 yuan/kilogram, a change of 0.30% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 870,541 lots, and the open interest was 301,919 lots. In the overnight session, it opened at 23,037 yuan/kilogram and closed at 22,938 yuan/kilogram, an 0.83% decline from the afternoon closing price [2]. US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On January 21, 2026, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.239%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasuries was 0.661%, also unchanged from the previous trading day [3]. Changes in Positions and Trading Volumes of Gold and Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On the Au2604 contract, the long positions changed by 14,122 lots compared to the previous day, and the short positions changed by 6,877 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai Gold contracts on the previous trading day was 546,827 lots, a change of 93.32% from the previous trading day [4]. - On the Ag2604 contract, the long positions changed by -4,635 lots, and the short positions changed by -3,634 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts on the previous trading day was 1,948,125 lots, a change of 23.03% from the previous trading day [4]. Precious Metals ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 1,081.66 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 16,222 tons, an increase of 149 tons from the previous trading day [5]. Precious Metals Arbitrage Tracking - On January 21, 2026, the domestic gold premium was -6.09 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was -709.99 yuan/kilogram. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was about 47.22, a change of 2.72% from the previous trading day. The overseas gold-silver ratio was 49.36, a change of -1.58% from the previous trading day [6]. Fundamentals - On January 21, 2026, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 95,478 kilograms, a change of 108.84% from the previous trading day. The silver trading volume was 422,976 kilograms, a change of -1.38% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 60 kilograms [7]. Strategy - Gold: The gold price is expected to be mainly in a volatile and slightly stronger pattern, and the oscillation range of the Au2604 contract may be between 1070 yuan/gram - 1150 yuan/gram [8]. - Silver: The silver price is expected to maintain a volatile pattern, and the oscillation range of the Ag2604 contract may be between 22,700 yuan/kilogram - 23,700 yuan/kilogram [8][9]. - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio on rallies [9]. - Options: Hold off [9].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury yields experienced a decline across various maturities, indicating a potential shift in investor sentiment towards safer assets [1] Group 1: Treasury Yields - The 10-year Treasury yield fell by 3.98 basis points to 4.2528% [1] - The 2-year Treasury yield decreased by 0.64 basis points to 3.5908% [1] - The 30-year Treasury yield dropped by 4.24 basis points to 4.8765% [1] Group 2: Yield Spreads - The yield spread between the 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields decreased by 3.570 basis points, now at +65.790 basis points [1] Group 3: TIPS Yields - The 10-year TIPS yield fell by 5.89 basis points to 1.8759% [1] - The 2-year TIPS yield decreased by 4.63 basis points to 0.9757% [1] - The 30-year TIPS yield dropped by 5.30 basis points to 2.5980% [1]

每经AI快讯，周二（1月20日）纽约尾盘，美国10年期国债收益率涨6.76个基点，报4.2906%。两年期美 债收益率涨0.87个基点，报3.5947%；30年期美债收益率涨7.92个基点，报4.9158%。2/10年期美债收益 率利差涨5.907个基点，报+69.172个基点。 ...

Core Insights - The two-year U.S. Treasury yield rose sharply, increasing by over 6.2 basis points this week, closing at 3.5945% [1] - The 10-year Treasury yield also saw an increase of 5.75 basis points, closing at 4.2269%, with a weekly rise of 5.96 basis points [1] - The 30-year Treasury yield increased by 3.96 basis points, closing at 4.8355%, with a weekly rise of 2.24 basis points [1] Treasury Yield Movements - The yield spread between the 2-year and 10-year Treasury notes increased by 2.723 basis points to +62.833 basis points, with a weekly decline of 0.285 basis points [1] - The 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) yield rose by 2.16 basis points this week to 1.8813% [1] - The two-year TIPS yield increased by 0.62 basis points to 1.0411%, while the 30-year TIPS yield rose by 0.41 basis points to 2.5822% [1]

每经AI快讯，周四(1月15日)，美债收益率集体上涨，2年期美债收益率涨6.07个基点报3.564%，3年期 美债收益率涨6.12个基点报3.619%，5年期美债收益率涨5.94个基点报3.768%，10年期美债收益率涨4.53 个基点报4.171%，30年期美债收益率涨1.31个基点报4.796%。 ...

UNforex 1月15日讯（分析师 Simon）随着美国最新经济数据持续释放韧性信号，市场对美联储短期内 维持政策稳定的预期不断升温，国际黄金价格在刷新历史高位后出现回吐。周四亚洲及欧洲早盘，现货 黄金（XAU/USD）运行于每盎司4600美元附近，较前一交易日触及的4643美元高点有所回落，走势转 入高位整理。 近期公布的美国宏观数据对市场预期形成明显指引。数据显示，11月美国零售销售环比增长0.6%，明 显高于此前0.4%的市场预期；生产者价格指数（PPI）同比升至3.0%，核心PPI同样超出预期。在消费 与通胀数据同步走强、失业率小幅回落的背景下，市场对美联储在未来数月维持利率不变的判断进一步 巩固。利率期货定价显示，1月会议降息概率已接近零水平，多数机构将年内首次降息时间点推后至年 中。受此影响，不具利息收益属性的黄金在短期内承受一定压力。 利率预期调整推动美元重新获得支撑。美元指数在此前回落后吸引技术性买盘，周四欧洲早盘回升至 99.10上方，逼近99.15一线。美元走强削弱了以美元计价的贵金属吸引力，加剧了黄金在高位的波动。 同时，美债收益率维持高位运行，也限制了金价短期内继续上行的空间，市场进 ...

本周美债收益率走势呈现波动态势，前期曾因降息预期推迟而短暂上行。根据最新就业与通胀数据，掉期市场目前定价美联储将在6月首次降息25个基点， 并在今年晚些时候再次降息。 近期美债市场波动显著，美债价格持续上涨，推动30年期美债收益率跌至今年以来最低点。 各期限美债收益率同步下行，市场对美联储未来利率路径的预期分歧扩大，成为当前焦点。 截至周三收盘，美债市场全面走强，各期限收益率普遍下跌2至5个基点。30年期国债收益率跌破4.80%关口，收盘位于200日均线下方。自去年12月初以 来，该期限收益率收盘首次低于这一均线，反映市场对长期美债的配置需求增强。 避险需求释放支撑了本轮美债反弹。美国股市下跌促使资金流向美债市场。最高法院对相关政策裁决的推迟，改善了市场对美国财政前景的预期，提振了美 债配置意愿。 供应端同样传递积极信号。此前两个交易日的国债拍卖需求强劲，显示市场认购热情高涨。周三下午纽约时段，美国财政部针对20至30年期国债的例行回购 操作，直接增加了长期债券需求，压低了30年期收益率。英债市场上涨亦对美债形成联动支撑。 期权市场则呈现相反预期。部分交易员正排除2026年降息的可能性，转向押注美联储全年维持 ...

每经AI快讯，周三(1月14日)，美债收益率集体下跌，2年期美债收益率跌1.86个基点报3.510%，3年期 美债收益率跌2.50个基点报3.561%，5年期美债收益率跌4.01个基点报3.712%，10年期美债收益率跌4.33 个基点报4.132%，30年期美债收益率跌5.07个基点报4.785%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The rise in demand for safe-haven assets and factors related to bond supply have led to an increase in U.S. Treasury prices, resulting in the 30-year Treasury yield dropping to its lowest level of the year [1] Group 1: Treasury Yield Movements - The yields on U.S. Treasuries across various maturities fell by at least 2 basis points, with the highest decline reaching 4 basis points [1] - The 30-year Treasury yield has fallen below 4.80% for the first time this year, marking a significant drop below the 200-day moving average [1] - This is the first time since early December that the 30-year yield is expected to close below the 200-day moving average [1] Group 2: Catalysts for Yield Changes - The recent decline in U.S. stock indices has contributed to increased demand for safe-haven assets [1] - Anticipation of U.S. military action against Iran has further fueled the demand for safe-haven investments [1] - The Supreme Court's postponement of a tariff ruling has improved the fiscal outlook for the U.S., adding to the demand for Treasuries [1] Group 3: Supply Factors - Strong demand was observed in recent Treasury auctions, indicating robust interest from investors [1] - A scheduled Treasury buyback operation targeting bonds maturing in 20 to 30 years is set for Wednesday afternoon [1] Group 4: International Influence - U.S. Treasuries have also been supported by rising yields in the UK, with the 10-year UK bond yield dropping to 4.35%, the lowest closing level in over a year [1]