广发期货： 美国经济运行和就业市场持续受到政府"关门"和贸易摩擦的冲击，然而随着美联储内部分歧较大并释放 鹰派信号使短期政策不确定性增加。地缘政治、金融机构"爆雷"等风险事件频发，更多央行增持黄金， 投资者重塑资产定价体系对金融属性强的商品货币的配置比例仍将上升，中长期有望驱动贵金属有望重 现类似 1970 年代的牛市行情。但从前几轮金价上涨经验看，价格在创新高后可能面临2-3 个月的盘整 或要到 12 月酝酿新的上涨动能。由于市场流动性受到美国政府结束"关门"的时点和美联储官员表态扰 动美元偏强加剧价格回调压力但目前看下方买盘力量仍存，短期国际金呈现宽幅波动若跌破3900 美元 （900元）可以择机逢低买入，后期仍以震荡整理走势为主。 期货公司观点 美债收益率再次下跌，下跌原因在于，一是政策预期博弈，美债定价隐含 "经济走弱→美联储 12 月降 息" 预期，但 9 月零售销售控制组数据不及预期，假日消费计划收缩，经济前景存疑，投资者等待失业 金申请、核心 PCE 等数据验证，提前抛售美债避险。 二是财政赤字承压，当日美国财政部公布 2026 财年首月赤字达 2840 亿美元，日均新增债务超 90 亿， 财政 ...

Group 1 - The market is increasingly betting on a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut now at approximately 80%, up from 30% just days prior [1] - The recent employment data released for September showed mixed results, leading to a shift in interest rate expectations [3] - New York Fed President John Williams indicated that there is still room for further rate cuts due to a softening labor market, which intensified the rate cut expectations [3] Group 2 - There is a significant divide within the Federal Reserve, but the dovish sentiment appears to outweigh the hawkish views, as indicated by various officials supporting a rate cut [4] - The net long positions in the bond market have reached their highest level in nearly 15 years, reflecting the dovish sentiment in the futures market [4] - The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond fell below 4% for the first time in a month, signaling a response to the dovish outlook [4]

Group 1: Economic Indicators and Federal Reserve Actions - The unemployment rate and layoff numbers in the U.S. have triggered early warning signals, indicating potential further pressure on the job market as the inventory cycle approaches its bottom [1][5][7] - The Federal Reserve is likely to continue its rate-cutting cycle, with a high probability of a 25 basis point cut in December, although the market has already priced in this expectation [2][28] - The 10-year Treasury yield is expected to experience low volatility, with support levels at 3.9% and 3.8%, and resistance levels at 4.1% and 4.2% [2][28] Group 2: Employment Market Analysis - The unemployment rate exhibits strong cyclical and nonlinear characteristics, with sharp increases during economic downturns and gradual decreases during recoveries [5][6] - The Challenger job-cut report shows a significant increase in layoffs, particularly in government sectors, which raises concerns about the employment market's deterioration [6][7] - The cumulative month-on-month change in the unemployment rate reached 0.4% in October, signaling a potential economic slowdown [6][7] Group 3: MBS Market Monitoring - In November, agency MBS yields declined alongside Treasury yields, with Fannie Mae MBS experiencing a slightly larger decrease than Freddie Mac MBS [1][38] - The credit spread of agency MBS relative to Treasuries remains stable near historical median levels, indicating a neutral valuation [38] - The duration of agency MBS is stable at around 5.5 to 6 years, with no significant overvaluation or undervaluation detected [38]

Core Viewpoint - The market is increasingly betting on significant cuts to the US dollar interest rates in the coming year, especially with Kevin Hassett emerging as a leading candidate for the next Federal Reserve Chair [2][4][5]. Group 1: Candidate Analysis - Kevin Hassett is viewed as a strong candidate for the Federal Reserve Chair due to his alignment with Trump's economic views, particularly the need for further interest rate cuts [4][5]. - Hassett's previous involvement in Trump's administration and economic policy design gives him an advantage over other candidates [4]. - The current Treasury Secretary, Scott Basset, is leading the selection process for the next Fed Chair, with Hassett being one of five candidates [2][4]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Recent employment and retail sales data have fallen short of expectations, which has heightened the anticipation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2][7]. - The ADP employment report indicated an average weekly job loss of 13,500 positions, raising concerns about consumer demand and employment growth [7]. - Retail sales in September rose only 0.2%, below the expected 0.4%, indicating a slowdown in consumer spending [7]. Group 3: Market Reactions - The yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond fell below 4%, reflecting market expectations for a more dovish monetary policy from the Federal Reserve [7][8]. - The decline in bond yields is attributed to both the anticipated dovish stance of the Fed and the recent weak economic data [8]. - Analysts predict that if Hassett is appointed and economic conditions worsen, the Fed may initiate aggressive rate cuts, potentially exceeding 100 basis points by 2026 [5][12]. Group 4: Future Monetary Policy Outlook - Regardless of who becomes the new Fed Chair, the monetary policy is likely to lean towards a dovish stance, driven by the need to support economic growth and manage inflation risks [12]. - The Trump administration is expected to favor a lower interest rate environment to stimulate the economy and mitigate the negative impacts of tariffs [12]. - Analysts forecast that the Fed may implement multiple rate cuts over the next year, potentially exceeding current market expectations [12].

Core Viewpoint - Investors are heavily betting that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates again in the upcoming meeting next month [2][6]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Expectations - The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond has fallen below 4% for the first time in a month, indicating a shift in market sentiment [3][5]. - A recent survey by JPMorgan shows that net long positions in U.S. Treasuries have reached their highest level in about 15 years [3]. - Market pricing indicates that traders believe there is an approximately 80% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut next month, a significant increase from just 30% a few days prior [6][8]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Officials' Stance - The recent comments from Federal Reserve officials have contributed to the dramatic reversal in market expectations regarding rate cuts [8][9]. - Despite some officials expressing concerns about inflation, it appears that the number of dovish members outweighs the hawkish ones within the Federal Reserve [10]. - Comments from key officials, including Williams, have been interpreted as signaling a potential rate cut, aligning with recent economic data trends [11]. Group 3: Diverging Opinions Among Analysts - Not all analysts are convinced that a rate cut will occur, with some top investment banks expressing skepticism about the December rate cut [14][15]. - Morgan Stanley has recently removed its prediction for a policy easing by the Federal Reserve, while JPMorgan acknowledges that the December meeting will be a challenging decision [15]. - Economists from PIMCO believe a rate cut will happen in December but express uncertainty about the outlook beyond that point, citing risks in the labor market and inflation remaining above target [16][17].

10年期通胀保值国债（TIPS）收益率跌3.52个基点，至1.7449%；两年期TIPS收益率跌1.75个基点，至 1.0456%；30年期TIPS收益率跌2.94个基点，至2.4615%。 02/10年期美债收益率利差涨1.781个基点，报+54.148个基点。 【两年期美债收益率跌超4个基点，报道称哈塞特在美联储主席候选人中领先优势明显】周二（11月25 日）纽约尾盘，美国10年期基准国债收益率跌3.07个基点，报3.9941%，日内交投于4.0440%-3.9865%区 间。 两年期美债收益率跌4.44个基点，报3.4525%，日内交投于3.5016%-3.4505%区间。 ...

Core Insights - The total holdings of the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, reached 1,040.86 tons as of November 24, marking an increase of 0.29 tons from the previous trading day, driven by rising expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut [5]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold prices surged significantly, reaching a peak of $4,139.82 per ounce, the highest level since November 14, closing at $4,134.54, an increase of $68.77 or 1.69% [5]. - The market is currently pricing in a 76% probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, a substantial rise from 42% a week prior, influenced by dovish comments from Fed officials [5]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Despite a slight increase in the US dollar index, gold maintained strong performance due to a decline in US Treasury yields, with the 10-year yield dropping by 2.5 basis points to 4.042% [6]. - Upcoming economic data releases, including ADP employment figures and producer price index, are expected to provide market direction ahead of the Fed's silent period [6]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - Technical indicators show a moderately bullish signal for gold, with the relative strength index suggesting potential further price increases [6]. - Key resistance levels for gold are identified at $4,150 and the cycle high of $4,245 reached on November 13, while critical support is at the upward trend line around $4,030 [7].

新华财经北京11月25日电美国国债收益率周一（11月24日）延续跌势，10年期美债收益率跌2.69个基 点，报4.03%，创月内新低。2年期美债收益率跌0.64个基点，报3.50%，与10年期美债利差收窄2个基点 至53个基点。 沃勒拥有对货币政策的投票权，并且是下一任美联储主席的候选人之一。 （文章来源：新华财经） CME"美联储观察"显示的美联储12月降息25个基点的概率在周一升至超过八成，前一日为接近七成。 美联储理事沃勒当天的相关表态提振了市场降息预期。 市场等待本周即将集中发布的一系列重要经济数据，包括美国9月零售销售数据、生产者价格指数、消 费者信心指数、个人收入和支出数据，以及美联储褐皮书等。 沃勒表示，他主张在12月实施一次降息，不过之后的政策路径应采取逐次会议的形式。"自上次会议以 来，我们获得的大多数私营部门数据和零星信息都显示情况没有实质性变化。劳动力市场疲软，并在持 续走弱，通胀预计将继续回落。"沃勒说，虽然这使得12月降息显得合理，但1月可能会更棘手，因为届 时会发布大量数据。如果这些数据与现有趋势一致，那可以为1月再降息提供依据；但如果突然显示通 胀或就业反弹，或经济转向强劲增长， ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The dovish signal from New York Fed President Williams last Friday increased the market's expectation of a December interest - rate cut from less than 40% to over 70%, boosting the stock and precious - metal markets. However, there are significant differences within the Fed, which brings uncertainty to the market. Currently, the high - level US dollar index exerts pressure on gold and silver, but due to the potential for interest - rate cuts, the downside space for precious metals is limited. This week, the release of economic data may provide more clues for the Fed's policy path, and gold and silver will seek a breakthrough direction in volatility [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Precious metals: London gold traded around $4060, and London silver around $50. Driven by the overseas market, Shanghai gold closed down 0.52% at 930.32 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver's main contract closed down (the percentage is missing in the text) at 11,808 yuan/kilogram [3]. - US dollar index: It fluctuated slightly at a high level, currently trading around 100.17 [4]. - US Treasury yields: The 10 - year US Treasury yield was horizontally consolidated, currently trading around 4.067% [5]. - RMB exchange rate: The RMB weakened slightly against the US dollar, currently trading around 7.106 [6]. Important Information - US macro data: The preliminary November 2025 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI was 51.9 (4 - month low), the Services PMI was 55 (4 - month high), and the Composite PMI was 54.8 (4 - month high). The final November 2025 University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index was 51 (expected 50.5, previous 50.3), and the one - year inflation rate expectation was 4.5% (previous 4.70%) [7]. - Fed views: Williams believes the Fed can cut rates "soon" without harming the inflation target; Collins is cautious about a December rate cut but expects further cuts; Milan would support a 25 - basis - point rate cut if his vote is decisive; Logan thinks the Fed should "keep interest rates unchanged for the time being" [7]. - Fed observation: The probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in December is 69.4%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 30.6%. By January next year, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 56.9%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 20.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 22.3% [7]. Logical Analysis Williams' dovish remarks raised the market's expectation of a December rate cut, but the internal differences in the Fed still bring uncertainty. The high - level US dollar index pressures gold and silver, but the potential for interest - rate cuts limits their downside. This week's economic data may provide more clues for the Fed's policy, and gold and silver will seek a direction in volatility [9]. Trading Strategies - Single - side: Conservative investors should wait on the sidelines until the market direction is clear. Aggressive investors can cautiously try to go long at lows near the 20 - day moving average [10]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [11]. - Options: Wait and see [12]. Data Reference The report provides multiple sets of data charts, including the relationship between the US dollar index and precious metals, real yields and precious metals, domestic and foreign futures trends, futures - spot trends, internal - external price differences, ETF holdings, futures trading volume, futures inventory, trading volume, TD data, and Treasury yields and break - even inflation rates, to help analyze the precious - metals market [15][17][18][20][23][26][30][38][43][44][47][50][55].

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The long - term fiscal risk of US Treasury bonds is increasing, with factors like supply surge, debt structure deterioration, and high fiscal deficit pushing long - term interest rates up. However, recent market sentiment is driven by economic slowdown and rate - cut expectations, causing the 10Y Treasury yield to fall to about 4.06% [11][12] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. US Treasury Bond Interest Rate Review - As of November 21, the 10 - year Treasury yield dropped 5bp in two weeks to 4.06%. Compared with two weeks ago, the 2 - year yield decreased by 6bp, and the 30 - year yield increased by 2bp [7] 2. US Treasury Bond Market Changes - In late October, the duration of Treasury issuance slightly increased, with 3 - year issuance at $57.4 billion, 10 - year at $41.86 billion, and 30 - year at $24.95 billion. The US fiscal deficit in September was $197.9 billion, and the 12 - month cumulative deficit slightly declined to $1.78 trillion [7] 3. Derivatives Market Structure - The net short position in Treasury futures slightly declined. As of September 23, the net short positions of speculators, leveraged funds, asset management companies, and primary dealers rose to 5.5 million contracts. The federal funds rate futures market remained net short, dropping to 165,700 contracts [7] 4. US Dollar Liquidity and US Economy 4.1 Monetary Policy - There are serious differences in the Fed's meeting minutes. Some officials support rate cuts, while others are cautious [8] 4.2 Fiscal Policy - As of November 19, the US Treasury TGA deposit balance decreased by $41.87 billion in two weeks, and the Fed's reverse repurchase tool decreased by $45.223 billion, indicating a marginal easing of liquidity [8] 4.3 Economic Situation - As of November 15, the Fed's weekly economic indicator was 2.29 (2.27 two weeks ago), showing a short - term deterioration after stability [8] 5. Structural Deterioration of the US Treasury Bond Market - The total US Treasury debt has exceeded $38 trillion in 2025, with the debt - to - GDP ratio over 126%. The interest payment exceeds military spending, and the Treasury's short - term debt financing has formed a short - term debt backlog, making long - term interest rates likely to rise [11] 6. Overseas Investor Holdings - In September, Japan continued to increase its Treasury holdings, but the UK and China reduced theirs, causing the overall overseas holding ratio to reach a low. The weakening global motivation to increase holdings is due to factors such as rising exchange - rate hedging costs and concerns about the US fiscal situation [11] 7. Recent Market Sentiment - Driven by economic slowdown and rate - cut expectations, the 10Y Treasury yield has fallen. Institutional investors are re - allocating bonds, and the Bloomberg Treasury index's annual return is expected to reach a new high since 2020 [12]