12月7日，国家外汇管理局发布的数据显示，截至11月末，我国外汇储备规模为33464亿美元，较10月末 上升30亿美元，升幅为0.09%，创下2015年12月以来的新高。 数据同时显示，11月末黄金储备为7412万盎司，较上月末增加3万盎司，为连续13个月增持。 外汇局表示，11月，受主要经济体宏观经济数据、货币政策预期等因素影响，美元指数下跌，全球金融 资产价格涨跌互现。汇率折算和资产价格变化等因素综合作用，当月外汇储备规模上升。我国经济保持 总体平稳、稳中有进发展态势，为外汇储备规模保持基本稳定提供支撑。 外储环比上涨 11月末外储规模较上年末大幅增加1440亿美元，创下2015年12月以来的新高。 黄金储备方面，11月末官方黄金储备连续13个月增加，但增量连续9个月处于低位，符合市场预期。 伴随美联储降息升温、全球地缘政治风险居高不下，近期国际金价延续快速上涨势头，11月央行增持黄 金规模继续处于2024年11月恢复增持以来的最低水平。 受资产价格变化与汇率波动综合影响，11月末外储环比上升30亿美元至33464亿美元。 与10月对比看，11月末外储规模基本稳定。"主要是当月美元指数变化较小，全球金融资 ...

12月7日，国家外汇管理局最新数据显示，截至2025年11月末，我国外汇储备规模连续4个月稳定在3.3万亿美元以上。同时，央行已连续13个月增持黄金。 外储规模继续稳定在3.3万亿美元以上 数据显示，截至2025年11月末，我国外汇储备规模为33464亿美元，较10月末上升30亿美元，升幅为0.09%。 拉长时间来看，11月，我国外汇储备规模不仅连续四个月稳定在3.3万亿美元以上，还创下2015年12月以来新高。同时，较上年末已大幅增加1440亿美元。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青也表示，未来外储规模有望保持基本稳定。在外部环境波动加大的背景下，适度充裕的外储规模将为保持人民币汇率处于合理 均衡水平提供重要支撑，也能成为抵御各类潜在外部冲击的压舱石。 央行连续13个月增持黄金 数据显示，11月末央行黄金储备报7412万盎司，环比增加3万盎司。尽管增量连续第9个月处于低位，但这是央行继去年11月重启增持后，连续第13个月增持 黄金。 | | 2025.01 | | 2025.02 | | 2025.03 | | 2025.04 | | 2025.05 | | 2025.06 | | 2025.07 | | 202 ...

温彬分析指出，11月份，美国政府重启后补发的一系列经济数据表现疲软，叠加多位美联储鸽派官员安抚市场，哈塞特成为下届美联储主席核心候选者的市 场消息，美联储12月降息概率飙升至80%以上，美债上行、美元贬值，全球资产价格涨跌互现。 外贸领域，他表示，中美经贸关系在元首会晤后猛然转向，11月份美国将对华关税下调10%，有助于我国对美出口规模保持稳定。 记者 辛圆 国家外汇管理局周日公布数据显示，截至2025年11月末，我国外汇储备规模为33464亿美元，较10月末上升30亿美元，升幅为0.09%，外汇储备连续四个月 上升。 外汇局在新闻稿中称，2025年11月，受主要经济体宏观经济数据、货币政策预期等因素影响，美元指数下跌，全球金融资产价格涨跌互现。汇率折算和资产 价格变化等因素综合作用，当月外汇储备规模上升。我国经济保持总体平稳、稳中有进发展态势，为外汇储备规模保持基本稳定提供支撑。 中国民生银行首席经济学家温彬对智通财经表示，受资产价格变化与汇率波动综合影响，11月末外储环比上涨30亿美元。 投资领域，温彬提到，我国稳步推进资本市场自主开放，近日证监会印发《合格境外投资者制度优化工作方案》，对配置型外资准入实 ...

Core Insights - The current gold boom, with prices reaching $3,800 an ounce and miners generating nearly $100 million this season, reflects a loss of faith in the U.S. dollar among Americans [1][19] - The surge in gold prices is seen as a direct response to government spending and the national debt, indicating a long-term structural trend towards safer assets like gold [2][3] Economic Context - The gold rush is interpreted as a vote of no confidence in the U.S. dollar, driven by Washington's neglect of the national debt [2] - The government's predicament may lead to inflation, further devaluing the dollar and pushing investors towards gold as a hedge [3][6] Market Dynamics - The current gold rush is compared to historical booms, with a modern twist where the pursuit of wealth has shifted from mining to technology, particularly AI [9][12] - The ambition for high-stakes opportunities remains unchanged, with capital flowing into transformative sectors [11][14] Industry Performance - The mining operations in the current season are projected to yield nearly $100 million, marking the largest revenue in the franchise's history [19] - The operational challenges faced by miners include time constraints before winter and the need for strategic decision-making under pressure [15][20]

11月21日，美元收盘汇率为7.1090，当日最低达7.1066，突破7.11关键关口，开启美元贬值，人民币升值的加速态势。 11月22 - 23日，美元汇率均为7.1066，最低触及7.1061，站稳7.11关口下方；11月24日，美元汇率为7.1022，最低7.1013，进一步突破7.10关口。 11月25日，美元中间价为7.0826，突破了7.09的关键关口。截至12月5日，美元汇率为7.0686，较前几日进一步走低，延续了突破关键关口后的贬值态势。 下一任美联储主席遴选侧重对特朗普的"忠诚度"，这让市场担忧美联储独立性受损。若失去独立性，其货币政策调控通胀、稳定经济的效果会打折扣，市 场对美元的信心受挫，导致美元进入贬值模式。 4. 人民币强势形成反向挤压 1. 降息预期急剧升温推动资产流出 市场对美联储12月降息的押注大幅增加，芝加哥商品交易所集团的FedWatch工具显示，12月10日会议降息25个基点的概率已达87%，远高于一周前的 39%。这种强烈的宽松预期让美元资产吸引力下降，促使资金流出美元资产，进而推动美元贬值。 2. 经济数据疲软加剧贬值 美国就业市场表现糟糕，10月裁员人数达2003 ...

Core Insights - The copper market is experiencing intense competition due to tight supply and record-high prices, with significant implications for the industry moving into 2026 [1][2][3] Price Trends - On December 3, 2023, the London Metal Exchange (LME) copper price reached a historic high of $11,435 per ton, marking a nearly 3% increase within the day [2] - The Shanghai copper futures also hit a record high, surpassing 90,000 yuan per ton [2] - Other metals such as tin and silver also saw significant price increases, indicating a broader trend in the metals market [2] Supply Chain Dynamics - Morgan Stanley predicts that supply disruptions and global inventory mismatches could push copper prices to $12,500 per ton in the first half of 2026 [3] - The LME reported a record increase in copper delivery applications, with a surge of 50,575 tons, the largest since 2013 [3] - The ongoing price disparity between COMEX and LME copper, which fluctuates between $200 and $400, is contributing to a tight supply in non-U.S. markets [3][5] Strategic Stockpiling - U.S. funds have been aggressively stockpiling copper, with COMEX inventories increasing over 300% year-on-year, now accounting for 62% of total inventories across major exchanges [5] - The strategic stockpiling is seen as a response to potential tariffs and reflects a broader concern about supply chain vulnerabilities [5][8] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Analysts predict that a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December could further elevate copper prices, as the demand for copper is being driven by emerging sectors such as AI, electric vehicles, and renewable energy [7][8] - The anticipated negotiations for copper smelting fees in 2026, combined with tight supply conditions, may lead to further price increases [7][8]

Group 1 - Nomura Securities indicates that the US dollar may face significant downward pressure by 2026 due to factors such as portfolio adjustments, rising foreign exchange hedging risks, and potential Federal Reserve rate cuts [2] - UBS economists note that discussions regarding the Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rate hikes have shifted from "if" to "when," with expectations moving forward significantly due to rising labor costs and domestic demand [2] - Barclays strategists highlight that the current market for US Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) does not adequately price in positive inflation risk premiums, suggesting a long position in 10-year breakeven inflation rates as a reasonable medium to long-term strategy [1] Group 2 - Fitch Ratings states that despite rising debt from infrastructure investments, a neutral macro environment, a robust housing market, and a strong labor market will support the stability of Australia's local government finances [3] - Mizuho Securities warns that rising interest rates could significantly increase the debt servicing costs for the UK and Japan, as both countries adjust their debt structures to rely more on short-term borrowing [2] - Nomura analysts suggest that the Bank of Korea may have ended its rate-cutting cycle, with GDP growth expected to reach 2.3% in 2026, driven by improved economic prospects and rising inflation [2]

Core Viewpoint - The potential nomination of Kevin Hassett as the next Federal Reserve Chairman by President Trump could lead to a more aggressive monetary policy, impacting market dynamics significantly [1][2][4]. Group 1: Potential Impact on Monetary Policy - Hassett's approach may shift the Fed from a "data-dependent" model to a "demand-driven" model, potentially resulting in earlier and larger interest rate cuts than currently anticipated [3][5]. - Market expectations are already adjusting to the possibility of "larger and faster rate cuts," with significant implications for interest-sensitive sectors such as technology and real estate [2][4]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Asset Valuations - If Hassett is appointed, there may be a notable increase in stock and gold prices due to anticipated liquidity easing, while bank stocks could face pressure from narrowing interest margins [2][4]. - The potential for a "Christmas rally" in the stock market is suggested if Hassett is officially nominated before the holiday season [4]. Group 3: Concerns Over Fed Independence - Analysts express concerns that Hassett's close ties to the Trump administration could politicize monetary policy, undermining the Fed's independence and potentially leading to higher long-term interest rates due to inflation fears [5][6]. - The market may react negatively to perceived loss of Fed independence, impacting the valuation of U.S. dollar assets, with short-term bonds and gold likely benefiting [5][6]. Group 4: Uncertainty During Transition Period - The transition period between Powell and Hassett may create confusion in market expectations regarding monetary policy, leading to increased volatility in the short term [7].

国际金价、银价持续攀升，市场对美联储降息的预期正迅速升温。特朗普称已确定美联储下任主席的人选，并将很快公布。 北京时间12月1日，现货白银历史首次触及57美元/盎司，现涨2.26%；现货黄金突破4240美元/盎司，现涨0.45%。 鲍威尔将于12月1日辞职？ 随着现任主席鲍威尔的任期将于明年5月结束，谁将执掌美联储这一全球最重要央行，成为市场瞩目的焦点。 11月30日晚间，有海外"小道消息"称，美联储主席鲍威尔被传将于12月1日辞职。消息人士称，鲍威尔将于周一晚上7点(美国东部时间)召开的紧急会议上 宣布此事。 不过该消息主要在社交媒体上流传，目前无美联储或主流媒体官方确认，且存在多重矛盾点。 鲍威尔的美联储主席任期将在2026年5月15日结束，理事任期将在2028年1月31日结束。 根据美联储官网的日程表，鲍威尔在美国时间周一晚上8点，的确有一场演讲活动，但并非紧急会议。 鲍威尔曾多次公开表示，不会提前离职，将全力履行美联储主席的职责直到任期结束。 下一任美联储主席：哈塞特？ 美国总统特朗普周日最新表示，他已确定美联储下任主席的人选，并将很快公布这一决定。 但在接受记者采访时，特朗普拒绝证实鲍威尔的继任者是 ...

今年黄金价格的表现如何？未来走势如何判断？ 今年（2025 年）黄金价格表现强劲，10 月 20 日达到峰值，年内涨幅超过 60%。虽然此后有小幅下跌，但基本维持在 4,000 美元上下震荡。最新数据显 示，10 月 27 日黄金现货价格为 4,189 美元，再次回升至高位。从 1970 年以 来，黄金经历了三轮大的增长周期，目前处于第三轮周期中。第一轮增长在 1970 年至 1980 年期间，由布雷顿森林体系瓦解、石油危机与大国冷战推动； 第二轮增长在 2001 年至 2012 年，由互联网泡沫破裂、金融危机和欧债危机 推动；第三轮从 2019 年至今，由新冠疫情、地缘冲突和大国博弈推动。尽管 当前的上涨时间长度和幅度相比前两轮仍有一定空间，但基于货币属性、商品 年度展望：黄金还会涨吗：黄金复盘、定价线索与展望 20251128 摘要 黄金现货价格重回高位，当前处于自 1970 年以来的第三轮增长周期， 前两轮分别由布雷顿森林体系瓦解和金融危机等事件驱动。尽管本轮周 期仍有上涨空间，但需关注地缘政治风险、黄金储备和实际利率等关键 影响因素。 地缘政治风险指数接近 2008 年金融危机水平，全球央行战略性囤积 ...