来源：环球市场播报 美国银行周二指出，贸易战引发的全球衰退仍是市场最大的尾部风险，但8月市场紧张情绪略有缓解。 其他风险因素依然存在：债券收益率无序跃升（20%）、AI股票泡沫（14%）和美元贬值（6%）。总 体来看，尽管前两大风险的差距缩小，且投资者对政策长期保持紧缩有所准备，但地缘政治和宏观因素 仍在主导资产配置。 贸易情绪虽有所改善，但通胀和收益率令利率路径充满不确定性，这对股票、信贷和久期策略至关重 要。贸易战仍是头条风险，但通胀正迎头赶上；下一批数据公布和下月调查将揭示这一转变是否持续。 最新全球基金经理调查显示，29%的受访者将贸易战衰退列为首要威胁，较7月的38%有所下降。通胀 风险以27%的得票率紧随其后，基金经理警告粘性通胀或阻碍美联储降息，这种情境可能抑制经济增长 和风险偏好。 ...

Group 1 - The euro to US dollar exchange rate reached 1.171 on June 26, the highest level since September 2021, following a breakthrough of 1.16 on June 24 [1][2] - The European Central Bank's reference rate for the euro to dollar on June 26 was 1.1695 [2] - Many economists believe the US dollar may continue to weaken due to erratic government policies, which have further undermined market confidence in the dollar [2] Group 2 - The recent exchange rate changes are primarily attributed to the rapid depreciation of the US dollar, leading to a passive appreciation of the euro [2] - The rise of the euro against the dollar is not due to strengthening European economic fundamentals, but rather a result of large-scale sell-offs of dollar assets [2] - The euro has appreciated over 10% against the dollar since the beginning of the year [2]

华尔街对美国总统特朗普提名其经济顾问斯蒂芬·米兰（Stephen Miran）进入美联储的计划反应平淡。 上周这一消息公布后，市场即时反应温和，但投资者现在必须将另一个与白宫立场一致的声音纳入考量 ——他将在美联储内部推动降息和放松监管。 作为白宫经济顾问委员会主席，米兰将填补美联储理事阿德瑞娜·库格勒（Adriana Kugler）的剩余任 期。库格勒意外辞职于上周五生效，她2023年9月加入美联储理事会，任期原定于1月底结束。 参议院可能不会在美联储9月政策会议前就米兰的提名进行投票。因此，对市场而言，真正的意义在于9 月之后的影响。 "这可能是一系列连锁反应的第一块多米诺骨牌，最终将导致政策宽松、通胀高于目标、美元走弱，"高 收益经济学（High Yield Economics）创始人丹尼尔·奥尔特曼（Daniel Altman）在报告中写道。 米兰多次呼吁美元走弱。去年11月，他为哈德逊湾资本（Hudson Bay Capital）撰写的一篇41页国际贸 易论文中称，"经济失衡的根源在于美元持续高估，阻碍了国际贸易平衡……" 短期来看，华尔街分析师认为美联储不会出现重大政策转向。 "米兰的任命短期内对 ...

来源：豆豆君的纸飞机 CNN 称斯蒂芬米兰可能是特朗普选择的美联储主席的人选。 那美国接下来的经济政策就很好判断了：美元贬值+低息。 #热点现场##海外新鲜事##美国债务突破37万亿创历史新高# @ watch D U If Miran is confirmed, he'd be in a position to be elevated as Fed chair. He'd also be taking the same route that other former Fed chairs have taken, such as Janet Yellen and Ben Bernanke, who led the CEA before helming America's central hank. 图果米兰获特确认,他将在机会被提拔为关联储主席。他也将走上与前美联储主 店如珍妮持哪伦和本祖南克相同的道路,这些人在执掌关医央行之前都曾领导 过经济拥可委员会。 According to Fed rules, the chair can be chosen only among current Fed. gover ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. economy is showing clear signs of slowdown, particularly in the labor market, prompting expectations for an imminent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [2][4]. Labor Market Weakness - Recent data indicates a rapid deterioration in the U.S. labor market, with potential monthly job growth plummeting from 206,000 in Q1 to just 28,000 in July [2][4]. - The July non-farm payrolls added only 73,000 jobs, significantly below expectations, and previous months' data was revised down by 258,000, suggesting a shift from a "moderate slowdown" to a "rapid brake" in employment [4][6]. Economic Growth Projections - Goldman Sachs projects that the U.S. real GDP annual growth rate will only be 1.2% in the first half of 2025, a full percentage point below its estimated potential growth rate [6]. - Both Goldman Sachs and Citigroup believe that the potential economic activity growth has slowed below its potential this year, justifying a reduction in policy rates to neutral or lower levels [6]. Federal Reserve's Dovish Shift - The resignation of Fed Governor Adriana Kugler and the recent dissenting votes at the FOMC meeting indicate a strengthening of dovish sentiment within the Fed, paving the way for quicker easing policies [8]. - Goldman Sachs notes that the dual dissenting votes at the last FOMC meeting mark a significant shift in the internal dynamics of the Fed, potentially leading to earlier and faster rate cuts [8]. Interest Rate Forecasts - Goldman Sachs anticipates that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points in September, October, and December of 2025, ultimately bringing the federal funds rate to a range of 3.0% to 3.25% [10][13]. - Citigroup's baseline scenario predicts a reduction of the policy rate to 3%, with risks skewed towards even lower rates if economic conditions worsen [13]. Currency Implications - The Fed's policy shift contrasts sharply with other major central banks, which may weaken the dollar as the interest rate differential narrows [17]. - Goldman Sachs forecasts that the dollar will face downward pressure due to fundamental factors, including a high current account deficit and concerns over U.S. economic governance and data quality [17].

Group 1 - The Trump administration is pressuring the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates to reduce the cost of currency hedging for international investors, ensuring their dollar-denominated asset returns are protected from currency depreciation [2][5] - International investors, particularly foreign life insurance companies, have significantly reduced their currency hedging ratios, with some cutting their hedging from 90% to 45% [2][3] - The flattening yield curve in the U.S. means that the interest rate differential, which motivates foreign life insurance companies to invest in U.S. bonds, is being eroded by high hedging costs [3][5] Group 2 - The Trump administration's public support for a weaker dollar has forced international investors to close their risk exposures in dollar assets [4] - The challenge for the U.S. Treasury is to attract buyers for long-term U.S. bonds, especially as Japan's government bonds now offer higher yields compared to U.S. bonds [5] - Lowering the federal funds rate could narrow the interest rate differential between the U.S. and Japan, making hedging cheaper and potentially attracting international buyers back to U.S. long-term assets [5][6]

【导读】中概股表现较好，纳斯达克中国金龙指数涨0.93%，中概科技龙头指数涨1.53% 大家早上好！昨夜今晨，又有很多大事发生。 美国三大股指全线收涨。苹果公司将在美国投入承诺增至6000亿美元，市值大涨1536.68亿美元（约合人民币1.1万亿元）。中概股多数上涨。国际油价大 幅下跌。美元指数下跌，摩根士丹利预计，到2026年底，美元可能再贬值10%。 美国三大股指全线收涨 美东时间8月6日，美国三大股指全线收涨，道指涨0.18%，报44193.12点；标普500指数涨0.73%，报6345.06点；纳指涨1.21%，报21169.42点。 大型科技股多数上涨，美国科技七巨头指数涨1.74%。 苹果涨5.10%，亚马逊涨4.00%，特斯拉涨3.62%，领涨美国科技七巨头。 | 序号 代码 | 现价 涨跌 涨跌幅▽ 年初至今 时间 | | --- | --- | | 1 AAPL 苹果(APPLE) | 213.275 | | 2 | 222.305 8.555 4.00% 1.33% 16:00 | | 3 | 319.910 11.190 3.62% -20.78% 16:00 | | 4 脸书(META ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. economy is showing clear signs of slowdown, particularly in the labor market, prompting expectations for an imminent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [1][2][4]. Labor Market and Economic Slowdown - Recent employment data indicates a significant decline in potential monthly job growth, dropping from 206,000 in Q1 to 28,000 in July, suggesting a rapid weakening of the labor market [1][2]. - Goldman Sachs emphasizes that the July employment data reinforces the view that U.S. economic growth is nearing stagnation, with potential job growth trends falling below the breakeven point of approximately 90,000 [1][2]. - The labor market's deterioration aligns with broader economic slowdown, with Goldman predicting a real GDP annual growth rate of only 1.2% for the first half of 2025, which is a full percentage point below its estimated potential growth rate [4][5]. Interest Rate Cut Expectations - Both Goldman Sachs and Citigroup predict a high likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, with the possibility of a more aggressive 50 basis point cut if economic data worsens further [1][11]. - Goldman forecasts three consecutive 25 basis point cuts in September, October, and December 2025, potentially lowering the federal funds rate to a range of 3.0-3.25% by mid-2026 [8][11]. - Citigroup's baseline scenario suggests a policy rate drop to 3%, with risks skewed towards even lower rates [11]. Political Dynamics Impacting Monetary Policy - The resignation of Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler and the recent dissenting votes at the FOMC meeting indicate a strengthening of dovish sentiment within the Fed, paving the way for quicker easing policies [6][7]. - The potential appointment of new Fed governors by President Trump could further shift the balance of power within the FOMC, facilitating earlier and faster rate cuts [7]. Currency and Market Implications - The anticipated shift in Fed policy contrasts sharply with other major central banks, which may drive a weakening of the U.S. dollar [14][15]. - Goldman Sachs projects that even with a reduction of the federal funds rate to 3%-3.25% by mid-2026, the European Central Bank may maintain its deposit rate at 2%, diminishing the dollar's interest rate advantage [14][15]. - Concerns regarding U.S. economic governance and data quality, particularly following the dismissal of the BLS director, may also exert downward pressure on the dollar [15].

黄金昨天多头意外转跌，快跌后上演深V，意外反转，大涨40美金，再破高回落调整，或再战3400的关 口。 今天的走势 昨天深V反弹，最高触及3390的位置。 再次回落调整，今天面临3385承压。 下方看调整力度，先看3350的位置。 此位置支撑有效，看两个区域范围内的调整。 调整力度过小，那么3350上方继续看反弹延续。 上方再次突破3385，看破高，持续看向3416的阻力承压。 同时，下方若持续回调。 下方跌破了3350的位置，继续看到3320的支撑。 七部门，又开始搞事情了。 中长期融资出台，又要放水了，科创板要起飞了。 一方面，美俄关系紧张，双方剑拔弩张，看似紧张情绪下面，继续为俄乌局势降温。俄乌或重回谈判 桌，面临美欧再度制裁，俄释放积极信号，或再达成空中停火，给地缘风险降温，黄金迎来回落调整。 另外一方面，美就业数据造假，整体就业数据大幅降温之后。昨天美非制造业PMI数据也不及预期，经 济数据疲软迹象，再次提升美联储降息预期，特别是特朗普继续对鲍威尔施压，提名接班人接替鲍威 尔，美元贬值，利好黄金逆袭。 今天消息面 重点今晚还是美联储，几个官员接连表态，重点依然是围绕降息的预期，特别是9月是否降息的几 ...

美联储上周五宣布，理事阿德里安娜·库格勒（Adriana Kugler）将于8月8日正式离任。这位2023年9月就 任、原定任期至2026年1月的理事，上周因个人原因缺席了联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC)会议。 特朗普将其称为"一个令人愉快的惊喜"。特朗普表示，将从四位候选人中挑选库格勒的继任者，或许会 利用库格勒留下的空缺来挑选未来的美联储主席。 库格勒离职之际，白宫正对美联储施加史无前例的公开压力，特朗普频繁对鲍威尔进行人身攻击。因鲍 威尔坚持反对降息，特朗普称其"太愤怒、太愚蠢、太政治化"，并要求其辞职。 新华财经北京8月6日电（马萌伟）当地时间5日，美国总统特朗普表示，可能很快宣布美联储新任主 席，美联储理事的人选决定将于本周末做出。 特朗普表示，主席候选人已缩减至国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特（Kevin Hassett）、美联储前理事凯 文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）以及其他两人。特朗普未透露另外两人姓名，但外界猜测其中一位是现任美联 储理事沃勒（Christopher Waller）。 目前，货币市场定价暗示美联储在9月降息的概率高达94.4%。在市场对9月降息押注迅速升温之际，特 朗普此番人 ...