【环球网财经综合报道】2026年1月26日亚洲市场早盘，国际现货和期货黄金价格均在盘中历史性突破5000美元/盎司 整数关口，创下全球黄金市场有记录以来的最高水平，为史上首次站上这一关键心理价位。 BBC报道称，黄金价格首次超过每盎司5000美元（3659英镑），延续了2025年涨幅超过60%的历史性飙升；黄金被视 为一种所谓的"避险"资产，在不确定性和低利率时期，投资者会买入。 亦有机构人士指出，本轮黄金上涨的逻辑已明显超越传统避险交易范畴，正演化为华尔街所称的"货币贬值交易"，其 核心驱动来自市场对主权货币信用体系稳定性的系统性担忧。 央行购金行为也成为支撑金价中长期趋势的重要力量。近年来全球央行持续增加黄金储备，已形成结构性长期需求， 部分经济体逐步降低对美元资产的依赖，转向增加黄金储备，以降低外部金融冲击和制裁风险。有分析人士称，这不 仅仅是因为价格表现，而是基于储备结构安全性的考虑。 TD Securities策略师Daniel Ghali在给客户的报告中表示："黄金的上涨，本质上是关于'信任'的问题。当前信任正在弯 曲，但尚未断裂；如果这种信任被真正打破，黄金的上涨动能将持续更长时间。" JM F ...

美元指数一度跌破97，助推贵金属价格。 | < W | | | 美元指数 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | USDX.FX | | | | 97.1127 | | 前收 | 97.5053 开盘 | | 97.1569 | | -0.3926 | -0.40% | 委员 | 97.1127 买入 | | 97.1127 | | 最高 | 97.2693 | 今年来 | -1.18% | 20日 | -0.90% | | 最低 | 96.9355 | 10日 | -1.80% | 60日 | -2.77% | | 分时 | | 日K | 周Ｋ 月Ｋ | | 更多 ◎ | | | | | 叠加 设均线 MA5:98.0413↓ 10:98.6220↓ 20:98.5991↓ 60:91 切走势线 | | | | 101.5669 | | | | | | | -100.3950 | | | | | | | 99.0899 | | | | | | | ... << | | | | | 96.9355 | | 96.6130 | 1 1 1 1 1 ...

1月23日，在全球金融版图重构的当下，黄金正从避险资产转变为投资组合的战略核心。FXGT表示， 私人部门投资者正积极效仿全球央行的动作，通过大规模增持黄金实现资产多元化。受此趋势推动，高 盛近期已将 2026 年 12 月的金价目标从 4900 美元大幅上调至 5400 美元，上调幅度超过 10%。FXGT认 为，这一调整反映了市场对宏观政策长期风险的深度忧虑，黄金已成为抵御货币不确定性的"终极保 险"。 黄金头寸的性质正在发生深刻变化。FXGT表示，不同于以往针对短期选举事件的对冲，目前私人投资 者购入黄金更多是基于对财政可持续性的长期考量，这种头寸具有极强的"粘性"，不会在短期内被轻易 平仓。同时，新兴市场央行的结构性购金需求依然强劲，FXGT表示，2026 年全球央行的平均月购买量 预计将维持在 60 至 70 吨的高位，这比 2022 年前的平均水平高出约 4 倍，为金价提供了坚实的底部支 撑。 在货币政策方面，随着美联储在 2026 年有望进一步降息 50 个基点，持有黄金的成本将继续下降。事实 上，自 2025 年初以来，西方黄金 ETF 的持仓量已激增约 500 吨，其增长速度已远超纯粹基于降息 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the impact of unconventional geopolitical actions by President Trump and Japan's election strategies on financial markets, leading to significant trading opportunities and risks. Group 1: Market Strategies - Basis trading has gained attention due to rising government debt, with an estimated growth of about 75% since 2019, reaching approximately $1.5 trillion [4] - Yield curve steepening trades have become popular as investors anticipate economic growth and inflation, with long-term bonds facing increased risks [5][6] - Arbitrage trading has thrived due to low foreign exchange volatility, with returns on emerging market currency strategies reaching about 18%, the highest since 2009 [8][11] Group 2: Geopolitical Influences - Trump's threats of new trade wars and subsequent retractions have created volatility in the markets, affecting long-term bonds and leading to temporary recoveries [7][15] - The "sell America" strategy has fluctuated, driven by Trump's policies, with significant impacts on the S&P 500 index and U.S. Treasury prices [15][20] Group 3: Japanese Market Dynamics - The "widowmaker" trade, which involves shorting Japanese government bonds, is experiencing a revival due to changes in monetary policy and fiscal discipline, despite its historical association with losses [22][26] - Japan's long-term bond yields are at their highest levels in decades, raising concerns about borrowing demand and market stability [26]

高盛分析师Daan Struyven和Lina Thomas在1月21日的一份报告中写道，高盛上调的前提是，那些将黄金 作为对冲宏观政策风险工具的私人投资者将在今年年底前继续持有这些仓位。 分析师表示，与以往针对特定事件(例如2024年11月美国大选)的对冲策略不同，针对诸如财政可持续性 等预期风险而采取的仓位可能不会在今年完全消除，因此更具"粘性"。 过去12个月，黄金价格上涨超过70%，在持续到今年年初的强劲涨势中屡创新高。随着全球力量格局发 生剧烈变化，以及特朗普再次抨击美联储，动摇了人们对美联储独立性的信心，资本正涌向避险资产。 智通财经APP获悉，高盛将年底黄金价格预测上调超过10%，反映出再各大央行和交易所交易基金 (ETF)需求强劲的基础上，私人部门对黄金的投资日益多元化。高盛将2026年12月的黄金价格目标从之 前的每盎司4900美元上调至5400美元。 与此同时，自2025年初以来，西方ETF持有的黄金数量已增加约500吨，超过了仅基于美国降息预期得 出的预测。高盛预计美联储将在2026年进一步放松货币政策50个基点。 高盛表示，随着市场对主要经济体长期货币和财政政策走向的担忧加剧，与所谓" ...

Core Viewpoint - Investors are increasingly turning to gold as a safe haven amid rising concerns over bond yields, high stock market valuations, and policy uncertainties related to Trump, leading to significant price increases in gold [1][2]. Group 1: Factors Driving Gold Prices - The primary driver for the surge in gold prices is the "currency devaluation trade," where investors buy gold as a hedge against economic shocks and currency depreciation [2]. - Recent actions by Trump, including military threats and pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, have heightened investor caution and contributed to the demand for gold [2]. - The low interest rates set by the Federal Reserve have decreased the attractiveness of government bonds and cash, prompting more investors to turn to gold [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - A small shift of funds from large money market funds into gold could significantly impact gold prices, with estimates suggesting that a mere 0.01% increase in gold ETF holdings could raise gold prices by 1.4% [4]. - Central banks have become significant buyers of gold, with many countries increasing their gold reserves as a strategy to mitigate risks associated with sovereign debt [5][9]. - The high valuations in the stock market, particularly in technology stocks, have led investors to seek alternative investments, further driving demand for gold [10]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the stability of market fundamentals and the credibility of regulatory institutions will influence the future trajectory of gold prices [3]. - Historical data indicates that gold prices tend to continue rising after significant annual increases, suggesting a strong potential for further price appreciation in the coming years [11][12].

特朗普的关税威胁与其试图获取格陵兰的行动相关。Kitco高级分析师Jim Wyckoff指出，这一表态"动摇 了"美国与欧盟及北约之间联盟关系的基础。 尽管"抛售美国"交易再度成为市场头条，BullionVault研究主管Adrian Ash向媒体表示，此轮焦虑的外溢 范围更广。"特朗普对既有世界秩序的最新冲击，正在吓退所有投资者。"他补充称，全球股债普跌之 际，"黄金和白银已在所有货币计价下创下新高"。 Altavest联合创始人兼管理合伙人Michael Armbruster表示，尽管围绕格陵兰的消息面刺激可能很快消 退，贵金属的中期趋势仍指向上行。他认为，当前上涨的核心驱动来自需求端：黄金主要受央行买盘支 撑，而白银则受工业需求快速扩张推动。 在避险情绪急剧升温的背景下，黄金与白银周二双双刷新历史新高。随着特朗普威胁对欧洲盟友加征新 一轮关税，市场对全球贸易与地缘政治前景的担忧加深，投资者可用于防御风险的资产选择愈发有限。 Armbruster指出，无论是数据中心基础设施建设，还是三星即将投产的银基电池，都在推升白银需求； 而供给端增长难以同步。"对投资者而言，更理性的策略是逢低布局，而不是追逐新闻头条 ...

●FPG最新市场脱水消息： 1. 当地时间1月17日，美国总统特朗普在其社交平台"真实社交"上表示，自2026年2月1日起，丹麦、挪 威、瑞典、法国、德国、英国、荷兰和芬兰出口至美国的所有商品加征10%的关税。自2026年6月1日 起，关税税率将提高至25%。特朗普表示，这一关税措施将持续实施，直至就"完全、彻底购买格陵兰 岛"达成协议。 2. 美国彭博社称，特朗普此举引发市场对欧洲可能采取报复措施的担忧，并可能导致一场大规模贸易 战，担忧情绪推动贵金属的避险需求升温。 | 黄金 (XAUUSD) | | | --- | --- | | 日内方向 | 日图 K 线呈现: 偏多 | | 阻力 | 4680 4697 4710 | | 支撑 | 4636 461 6 4658 | | 动能 | 动力强（实时变化）全品种量化周期大于 3年、参考价值≥67.1% | | 欧元兑美元(EURUSD) | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日内方向 | 日图 K 线呈现: 偏多 | | | | 1.1646 阻力 | | 1.1660 | 1.1673 | | 1.1630 支撑 | | ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that if President Trump appoints a Federal Reserve chairman perceived as overly compliant, the bond market will react negatively, while precious metals remain a good hedge against political volatility [1][2] - Picton Investments manages approximately CAD 16.6 billion (around USD 11.9 billion) in assets and does not believe the Federal Reserve will ultimately lose its independence, despite concerns over Trump's verbal attacks on Chairman Powell [1][2] - The market sentiment has shifted towards a "sell America" attitude, leading to a rise in gold and silver prices, particularly following Trump's comments regarding Greenland and the Federal Reserve [1][3] Group 2 - Picton anticipates a significant acceleration in the global economy driven by stimulus measures, with major economies, including the U.S. and Europe, implementing economic support through monetary and fiscal policies [2] - The potential market rebound could broaden the range of participating stocks, with capital discipline becoming a theme in the technology sector, leading to a shift of funds towards other sectors such as automotive, dining, non-essential consumer goods, and transportation [3] - Commodity markets are viewed positively due to a lack of investment and rising demand, which may lead to supply constraints, with silver prices recently reaching USD 94 per ounce, continuing a remarkable 148% increase from the previous year [3][4] Group 3 - The supply-demand dynamics for silver indicate significant upside potential, with shortages in inventory suggesting that silver remains a critical component in various industries, including energy and solar [4]

对许多投资者而言，黄金前景依旧向好，因为推动金价去年上涨的大多数因素仍然完好。 周五，国际金价有所回落。COMEX黄金期货跌0.49%，报4601美元/盎司。投资者在近期金价创下历史 新高后获利了结，地缘政治紧张局势缓和的迹象也削弱了黄金的避险吸引力。此外，美联储降息预期降 温也令金价进一步承压。 据央视新闻报道，美国总统特朗普当地时间1月16日在白宫表示，他"说服了自己"暂缓对伊朗采取军事 行动。 素有"新兴市场教父"之称的美国资深投资者麦朴思（Mark Mobius）日前表示，在经历历史性的上涨之 后，黄金已不再具有吸引力。他警告称，在市场多数参与者仍坚定看涨黄金的当下，美元潜在的反弹可 能会削弱贵金属的表现。 麦朴思是莫比乌斯资本合伙公司（MobiusCapitalPartners）的联合创始人，也是麦朴思新兴机会基金 （MobiusEmergingOpportunitiesFund）的主席。此前他曾在大型投资机构富兰克林邓普顿投资公司工作 30余年，期间他在新兴市场的投资业绩为其赢得了诸多全球性的赞誉。 "在目前这个价位，我肯定不会买入，这是肯定的。"麦朴思周五接受采访时表示，并称，若金价较当前 水平 ...