Core Views - There is a divergence in views among European Central Bank (ECB) officials regarding interest rate policy, with some advocating for further rate cuts if economic growth underperforms and inflation declines excessively, while others believe current rates are appropriate and only a significant deviation in inflation would warrant a cut [1][2][4]. Group 1: Interest Rate Policy - Fabio Panetta, a member of the ECB's governing council, suggests that if economic growth is weaker than expected, leading to a significant drop in inflation, the ECB should consider further rate cuts [2]. - Panetta emphasizes the need for a flexible and pragmatic approach to monetary policy, indicating that decisions will be based on existing information and its impact on inflation forecasts [2][3]. - Isabel Schnabel, a member of the ECB's executive board, argues that the current interest rates are suitable and that the threshold for further rate cuts is high, only to be considered if inflation significantly deviates from targets [4][5]. Group 2: Economic Conditions and Risks - Schnabel asserts that the economy shows resilience despite uncertainties, and the current inflation trajectory aligns with expectations, negating immediate concerns for further rate cuts [5][6]. - There are concerns among some policymakers regarding the potential impact of ongoing trade tensions with the United States, which could affect economic activity and inflation [6]. - The ECB plans to maintain interest rates at their current levels in the upcoming meeting, with most officials preferring to observe economic trends before making further decisions [5][6]. Group 3: Banking Sector and Technology Investment - Panetta highlights the importance of technology investment in the banking sector, noting that such investments have increased by approximately 2 percentage points over the past decade [2]. - He also points out the risks associated with new technologies, prompting the Italian central bank to enhance oversight of financial intermediaries and their suppliers [3]. - Issues identified include low participation from corporate entities, incomplete IT asset inventories, and inadequate access controls for sensitive data [3].

欧洲央行执委施纳贝尔：进一步降息将需要显著偏离通胀目标。 ...

Core Insights - Brazilian Central Bank Governor Gabriel Galipolo acknowledged that inflation levels have exceeded government targets for six consecutive months since the second half of 2024, with expectations to return to target range only by the end of Q1 2026 [1] - The inflation target set by the National Monetary Council (CMN) requires the Consumer Price Index (IPCA) to maintain a median level of 3% starting in 2025, with a tolerance range of 1.5% to 4.5% [1] - As of June 2025, Brazil's inflation rate reached 5.35%, significantly above the upper limit of the target range [1] Group 1 - The main reasons for uncontrolled inflation include strong economic activity, faster-than-expected growth in household consumption and investment, unanchored market inflation expectations, and rising prices of services, fuels, and food [1] - The recent depreciation of the Brazilian real against the US dollar has increased import costs, exacerbating inflationary pressures [1] - Galipolo noted that economic performance has exceeded expectations, with a persistently overheated labor market and significant deviations in inflation expectations from the second half of 2024, reflecting increased stickiness and inertia in price mechanisms [1] Group 2 - In response to rising price pressures, the Brazilian Central Bank's Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) restarted the interest rate hike cycle in September 2024, raising the benchmark rate to 15%, a recent high [2] - The Central Bank emphasized maintaining a "sustained tightening policy stance" and may further increase rates as necessary [2] - Galipolo stated that if inflation does not return to the target range as expected, the Central Bank will publish explanatory supplementary documents quarterly in the Monetary Policy Report and may write to the government to explain reasons and countermeasures [2]

Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) must keep all options open regarding interest rate decisions due to high economic uncertainty, as stated by Joachim Nagel, a member of the ECB's governing council and the head of the German central bank [1] - Nagel emphasized that committing to a specific interest rate path or ruling out future actions would be unwise, highlighting the need for caution and data-driven decisions at each meeting [1] - With inflation having returned to the target level of 2% and the eurozone economy showing resilience against external challenges, ECB officials suggest that the series of rate cuts may be nearing an end, although some officials remain open to further easing [1] Group 2 - Concerns have been raised by several policymakers, including the head of the French central bank, about inflation potentially remaining below the ECB's 2% target, especially with a stronger euro [2] - The ECB's latest forecasts indicate that consumer price growth will remain below 2% for the next 18 months, with a return to the target level expected only by 2027 [2] - Nagel noted that while current inflation is around 2%, there is cautious optimism about maintaining this level in the medium term, despite ongoing high service sector inflation [2] Group 3 - Nagel reiterated that large-scale asset purchases should always be an absolute exception due to the risks they pose to the central bank's balance sheet [3] - Although ECB policymakers retain all tools, including quantitative easing, for future use, there is no clear indication of the conditions under which these tools would be employed [3] - Future use of quantitative easing may be approached with greater caution due to potential consequences such as central bank losses and asset bubbles [3]

Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) does not need to overly worry about inflation temporarily falling below the 2% target and should not rush to adjust interest rates [1][2] - ECB member Boris Vujcic indicated that inflation is expected to remain below the target for the next 18 months, with a return to 2% projected by 2027 [1] - Vujcic emphasized that the ECB has the "room to wait" for more data to determine future actions regarding interest rates [1][2] Group 2 - Some ECB colleagues, including Olli Rehn and Francois Villeroy de Galhau, have expressed concerns about prolonged inflation below 2%, particularly regarding the potential strengthening of the euro [2] - After eight consecutive rate cuts of 25 basis points, officials have hinted that the easing cycle may soon end, with expectations of a pause in rate cuts this month but at least one more cut by the end of the year [2] - Vujcic noted that the current inflation and interest rates are both at 2%, indicating a balanced risk environment for prices [2]

巴西财政部副部长Galipolo：通胀目标为3%，这不是建议，而是根据法令规定的要求。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The forum highlighted the need for a shift in China's monetary policy from quantity-based to price-based approaches, emphasizing the importance of nominal GDP growth over just real GDP growth [1][2] Group 1: Economic Context - China's economic growth has slowed in recent years, prompting a focus on nominal GDP growth [1] - The government's adjustment of the CPI target from 3% to 2% reflects a heightened concern for price stability [1] Group 2: Key Issues in Price Stability - International factors pose risks, particularly regarding supply chain disruptions [1] - The real estate market remains sluggish, leading to reduced local government revenues and insufficient recovery in public capital spending, which contributes to weak overall demand [1] - There is inadequate growth in household operational and asset income [1] Group 3: Monetary Policy Recommendations - Short-term monetary policy should shift focus from GDP growth to price stability and employment [1] - There is a need for better coordination with global macroeconomic policies to avoid misalignment [1] - The transition of policy tools from quantity-based to price-based approaches is essential [1][2]

Group 1 - The 17th BRICS summit opened in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, focusing on six key topics: global health, trade investment and development financing, climate change response, artificial intelligence governance, global security architecture reform, and BRICS mechanism construction [1] - The U.S. President Trump signed the "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill, which was passed by the House of Representatives with a vote of 218 to 214 [1] - India plans to impose retaliatory tariffs on the U.S. in response to increased tariffs on automobiles and parts, which have affected its exports [1] Group 2 - South Korean President Lee Jae-myung approved the first supplementary budget of the new government, which will provide up to 550,000 KRW in consumer vouchers to citizens [2] - Germany's factory orders decreased by 1.4% month-on-month in May, marking the first decline in four months, attributed to increased trade and geopolitical uncertainties [2] Group 3 - U.S. stock markets were closed for a holiday on Friday [3] Group 4 - COMEX gold futures rose by 0.11% to $3,346.5 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures increased by 0.14% to $37.135 per ounce [4] Group 5 - U.S. oil main contract fell by 0.75% to $66.5 per barrel, and Brent oil main contract decreased by 0.42% to $68.51 per barrel [5] - The U.S. dollar index declined by 0.13% to 96.99, with the euro rising by 0.17% against the dollar to 1.1777 [5]

Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) is committed to maintaining a 2% inflation target and will take all necessary measures to ensure inflation remains at this level [1][2] - ECB President Christine Lagarde stated that the current interest rate level is appropriate and reaffirmed the recent statements regarding the interest rate path, indicating that the ECB is in a good position [1][2] - Market expectations suggest that the ECB will likely keep the current interest rates unchanged in the upcoming monetary policy meeting [2] Group 2 - Lagarde emphasized the importance of strengthening the European economy to enhance the value of the euro, stating that the value of currencies like the euro largely depends on economic strength [3] - She acknowledged the external challenges but stressed that the ECB will maintain certainty and stability in price stability [2] - Lagarde called for policymakers to intensify efforts to promote economic development in Europe, highlighting the continent's incredible potential [2]

欧洲央行行长拉加德：我们将采取一切必要措施以实现我们的通胀目标，目前价格保持稳定。 ...