Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Leap Motor (9863.HK) with a target price of HKD 52.4, indicating a potential upside of 26% from the current price of HKD 41.5 [2][4][6]. Core Insights - Leap Motor's sales guidance for 2025 is strong, with expectations to exceed 500,000 vehicles sold, driven by new models and mid-cycle updates [6]. - The company aims for a gross margin of over 10%, supported by its self-developed core automotive electronic components and the LEAP 3.5 architecture [6]. - Leap Motor is expected to achieve profitability in 2025, aided by effective cost management and operational leverage [6]. - The current price-to-sales ratio of 0.9x suggests potential for valuation re-rating, making it attractive compared to peers in the new energy vehicle sector [6]. Financial Performance and Forecast - Revenue is projected to grow significantly from RMB 16,747 million in 2023 to RMB 57,812 million in 2025, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 80% [3][10]. - Gross margin is expected to improve from 0.5% in 2023 to 10.8% in 2025, indicating enhanced profitability [3][10]. - Net losses are forecasted to decrease from RMB 4,216 million in 2023 to a near breakeven of RMB 49 million in 2025, with a return to profitability anticipated in 2026 [3][10]. - The company achieved a revenue of RMB 134.6 billion in Q4 2024, marking a 155% year-on-year increase [9]. Valuation Methodology - The valuation is based on a sum-of-the-parts approach, applying a price-to-sales ratio of 1.1x for automotive sales and 1.0x for services and other revenues, leading to a target price of HKD 52.4 [11].

2025 年 3 月 11 日 | 产业别 | | 汽车 | | --- | --- | --- | | H 股价(2025/03/10) | | 41.50 | | 恒生指数(2025/03/10) | | 23,783.5 | | 股价 12 个月高/低 | | 41.75/19.54 | | 总发行股数(百万) | | 1,336.97 | | H 股数(百万) | | 1,116.41 | | H 市值(亿元) | | 347.61 | | 主要股东 | 陈爱玲(25.09%) | | | 每股净值(元) | | 7.53 | | 股价/账面净值 | | 5.51 | | 一个月 | 三个月 | 一年 | | 股价涨跌(%) 17.40% | 48.75% 59.31% | | 近期评等 | 出刊日期 | 前日收盘 | 评等 | | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-2-21 | 33.45 | 买进 | 产品组合 汽车 100% 股价相对大盘走势 C o m p a n y U p d a t e C h i n a R e s e a r c h D e p t . | 沈嘉婕 | ...

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive investment outlook for the automotive industry, highlighting significant growth potential driven by domestic demand and advancements in AI technology [1][3]. Core Insights - The automotive sector has shown a strong performance, with the index rising 13.1% year-to-date, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 12.6 percentage points [6][13]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the "smart driving" era, predicting a substantial increase in the penetration of advanced driving assistance systems (ADAS) in the market [6][57]. - The report forecasts that the total sales of passenger vehicles in China will reach 28.74 million units in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 4% [40][41]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The automotive sector has outperformed the CSI 300 index, with a year-to-date increase of 13.1% [6][13]. - The report notes a slight decrease in fund holdings in the automotive sector, with a total holding of 3.88% as of Q4 2024 [18]. - Passenger vehicle wholesale sales reached 27.55 million units in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 5.91% [19][20]. Complete Vehicles - The "old-for-new" policy is expected to activate market demand, potentially adding over 2 million units in 2025 [28][31]. - The report highlights that the market is shifting towards models priced below 150,000 yuan, with increased subsidies expected to drive growth in this segment [31][36]. - The introduction of high-level intelligent configurations in vehicles priced above 100,000 yuan is anticipated to influence consumer purchasing decisions significantly [48][49]. Components - The report identifies a significant increase in the demand for components related to smart driving, such as cameras and advanced driving chips [6][72]. - The trend of "smart driving equity" is expected to lead to a notable increase in the use of sensors and components in vehicles [6][72]. - Key players in the component sector, such as Desay SV and BYD Electronics, are highlighted as beneficiaries of this trend [6][72].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for BYD is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that BYD's recent H-share placement of 1.3 billion shares at a price of 335.2 HKD per share is the largest equity refinancing project in the global automotive industry in the past decade, attracting significant long-term capital support, indicating strong investor confidence in the company's growth prospects [4] - The report maintains and raises the earnings forecasts for BYD for 2024 and 2025-2026, projecting net profits attributable to shareholders of 40.02 billion, 53.18 billion (+8.1%), and 64.67 billion (+8.1) for the years 2024-2026, respectively [4] - The current price corresponds to a PE ratio of 24.0, 18.1, and 14.9 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, reflecting a positive long-term outlook for the company [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue for 2022 was 424.06 billion, with projections of 602.32 billion for 2023, 740.11 billion for 2024, 900.71 billion for 2025, and 1,016.88 billion for 2026, showing a year-on-year growth of 96.2%, 42.0%, 22.9%, 21.7%, and 12.9% respectively [6] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 16.62 billion in 2022, expected to rise to 30.04 billion in 2023, 40.02 billion in 2024, 53.18 billion in 2025, and 64.67 billion in 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 445.9%, 80.7%, 33.2%, 32.9%, and 21.6% respectively [6] - Gross margin is projected to improve from 17.0% in 2022 to 21.8% in 2026, while net margin is expected to increase from 3.9% to 6.4% over the same period [6] Market Expansion and Product Development - BYD has entered over 100 countries and regions across six continents, with overseas sales increasing by 83% and 188% year-on-year in January and February 2025, respectively [5] - The company is focusing on high-level intelligent driving technology, with the "Tian Shen Zhi Yan C" program enabling advanced features like highway navigation and valet parking, set to enhance product competitiveness [5] - The introduction of new models at competitive price points, including high-level intelligent driving features, is expected to solidify BYD's market position [5] Future Outlook - The report emphasizes the acceleration of BYD's internationalization and intelligent business development, with significant capacity expansion in Hungary and Brazil, and agreements signed for factories in Indonesia and Turkey [5] - The company plans to fully switch to DM5.0 technology and launch a new generation of blade batteries, with energy density expected to increase by over 35%, enhancing vehicle range and safety [5]

撰 文 / 钱亚光 设 计 / 琚 佳 2月下旬，中国车市有两款新车上市将对今后的市场格局产生影响。 一款是2月27日上市的小米SU7 Ultra，将1500马力顶级性能车的售价拉到了52.99万元。 另一款是早一天上市的红旗天工05，15.98万-18.58万元，高阶智驾版只需要16.98万元起，红旗把高 阶智驾豪华品牌的价格打到了16.98万元，让更多喜欢的人买得起。 高阶智驾无疑是2025年汽车业最卷的新赛道，仅2月就有多家车企发布智驾战略。长安汽车宣布"未 来3年的新车将全系标配智驾接口，将高阶智驾下沉至更多性价比车型"；小鹏汽车宣布已实现高等 级智能驾驶的软硬件全系标配；比亚迪发布了全民智驾战略，宣布其全系车型将搭载高阶智能驾驶 辅助系统"天神之眼"。 同时，DeepSeek的火爆和特斯拉部分FSD功能的引入，让人们对智能汽车的体验有了进一步的期 盼，也让汽车行业的底层逻辑发生着革命性的改变。高阶智驾已经不再是奢侈品，而是有了走进寻 常百姓家的趋势。 红旗天工05的上市，第一次把豪华品牌高阶智驾打到了16万元区间，让高阶智驾和豪华品牌同时普 惠到更广阔的群体。 豪华品牌的加入，意味着2025年围绕" ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for several companies in the automotive sector, including XPeng Motors, Li Auto, BYD, SAIC Motor, Great Wall Motors, and Leap Motor [10]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that by 2025, advanced intelligent driving (high-level AD) will see improved user experience and reduced prices, transitioning from a trial phase to widespread adoption among consumers [14][20]. - The penetration rates for L2.5 and L2.9 intelligent driving are projected to reach 3.5% and 10.1% respectively by November 2024, with expectations of further growth to 16% for highway NOA and 14% for urban NOA by 2025 [14][24]. - The report highlights the shift towards end-to-end architecture in intelligent driving systems, which allows for higher performance limits and seamless data transmission, enhancing the overall driving experience [30][31]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong engineering capabilities and advantages in data, computing power, and funding, such as XPeng Motors, Li Auto, and BYD, as well as third-party suppliers like Desay SV and Kobot [5][10]. Market Trends - The report notes that the intelligent driving market is evolving, with a focus on enhancing user experience through features like "human-like" driving capabilities and the implementation of end-to-end architectures [14][20]. - The price of high-level intelligent driving systems is expected to decrease significantly, with current models priced below 100,000 and 150,000 yuan for highway and urban NOA respectively [24][28]. Technological Developments - The report discusses the advancements in end-to-end architecture, which is gaining traction among automotive manufacturers, allowing for improved data processing and decision-making capabilities [30][31]. - It also mentions the importance of AI-driven models and the need for automotive companies to adapt their organizational structures to support these technological shifts [15][41]. Competitive Landscape - The report outlines the competitive dynamics among leading automotive companies, highlighting their respective advancements in intelligent driving technologies and the rapid iteration of their systems [41][45]. - Companies like Tesla, Li Auto, and XPeng Motors are noted for their significant investments in R&D and their ability to push updates and improvements quickly [42][46].

靳玉志说，高阶智驾需要同时具备高速和城区领航能力。 2024 年下半年，中国新能源车智驾渗透率超过 10% 这一重要拐点，市场有从业者认为 2025 年将是某种意 义上的 "全民智驾元年"。 今年 2 月起，多家车企陆续发布 "全民智驾" 战略。比如长安要把激光雷达搭载到售价 10 万元级别的车型 上，比亚迪则推出覆盖 7 万至 20 万元价位段的天神之眼 C 系统，目标实现 "高阶智驾人人可享"。 这些车企大力推动 "全民智驾" 普及，主要原因之一是智驾终于撕下 "炫技工具" 的标签，成为用户购车决 策的刚性需求。不过，由于智能驾驶行业还在快速发展和迭代，对于广大用户来说，究竟什么是高阶智 驾，多数人没有准确认知。 放眼行业，推动全民智驾分两种路线：一种是在技术上由中阶向高阶推进，以智驾搭载量来推进智驾普 及；一种是像华为乾崑这样，先猛攻高阶智驾，用高阶智驾的普及，确保用户爱用、敢用，再将高阶能力 不断下放，以用户体验为核心推动智驾普及。 2 月 17 日，华为车 BU CEO 靳玉志在央视新闻《中国经济引力场》直播节目中称，华为乾崑是全民智驾 的发起者、推动者和引领者，并提出了他对于 "高阶智驾" 的定义 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on undervalued leading companies in the automotive sector due to performance improvement opportunities, particularly in the new energy and intelligent vehicle segments [3][13]. Core Insights - BYD has launched its "Universal Intelligent Driving Strategy," introducing the "Tian Shen Zhi Yan" technology matrix, which will equip all its models with advanced driving technologies, making high-level intelligent driving accessible to a broader audience [1][9]. - BYD has sold over 4.4 million vehicles equipped with L2 and above driving assistance, establishing the largest vehicle cloud database in China, and has the largest R&D team globally with over 110,000 engineers, including more than 5,000 dedicated to intelligent driving [2][11]. - The report emphasizes the potential for the automotive industry to rebound as economic conditions normalize and stimulus policies are implemented, with expectations for sustained growth in production and sales [13][17]. Summary by Sections 1. Intelligent Driving Technology - BYD's "Tian Shen Zhi Yan" includes three technology solutions: DiPilot 600, DiPilot 300, and DiPilot 100, catering to different vehicle models and price ranges [1][9]. - The DiPilot 100, equipped with advanced perception hardware and algorithms, aims to cover essential user scenarios [1][9]. 2. Investment Strategy and Focus - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the automotive sector, particularly those with a first-mover advantage in new energy vehicles, such as BYD, Changan Automobile, Geely, and Li Auto [3][13]. - Key companies to watch include BYD (20%), Li Auto (20%), Top Group (20%), Desay SV (20%), and Shangsheng Electronics (20%) [14][15]. 3. Market Review - The automotive sector's weekly performance showed a 1.19% increase, ranking third among 31 sectors, with the overall market indices also reflecting positive trends [16][19]. - The report highlights the performance of various automotive sub-sectors, noting significant movements in passenger vehicles and automotive services [16][23]. 4. Material and Component Prices - The report includes insights into the prices of key automotive materials and components, such as battery prices and raw materials like aluminum and copper, which are critical for the industry [25][27].

撰 文 / 周 洲 设 计 / 赵昊然 长安汽车和比亚迪蛇年放的第一个大招，就是全民智驾，即全系标配高阶智驾。 比亚迪霸屏的前一天，2月9日，长安汽车发布"北斗天枢2.0"智能化战略，深蓝汽车先掀桌子，将 高阶智驾铺到全系，下探到10万元车型。 结果比亚迪把桌子腿都卸了，直接打到7万元级别。 2月10日，比亚迪发布"天神之眼"智驾系统，号称开启全民智驾时代，7.88万元的海鸥都将配备。 各供应商和车企或明或暗跟进，有不屑，有欢迎，反正蹭一波营销热潮。 有分析认为这是变相的价格战。舆论不提倡价格战，那就增配。3000-5000元的智驾硬件BOM（物 料）成本对于比亚迪来说，比直接降价1万元的做法高级不少。 比亚迪的做法，让高阶智驾进入开局即决战的局面。 同济大学汽车学院教授朱西产对汽车商业评论表示，如果比亚迪的全民智驾成了，这意味着"华卓 地魔"[华为、卓驭、地平线、魔门塔（momenta）]四大智驾供应商模式第一次落地开花，智驾主流 将由供应商模式主导。 比亚迪的智驾王炸，会将压力给到全栈自研的车企们和ADAS企业。 上海预致汽车咨询有限公司总经理张豫对汽车商业评论表示，最破防的应是合资车企，其在燃油家 轿和 ...

OpenAI 与 Google 更新大模型，OpenAI 还打算投放第一支电视广告。 美国时间本周三 Google 向所有用户开放了 Gemini 2.0 的各个模型，包括 Gemini 2.0 Flash、 Gemini 2.0 Flash-Lite 以及 Gemini 2.0 Pro Experimental。在 Chatbot Arena 排行榜上，Gemini 2.0-Pro 在所有 类别中排名第一；今天凌晨，OpenAI 宣布向所用户开放 ChatGPT 搜索功能，无需注册即可使用， 现在 ChatGPT 可以抓取实时的网络信息，给用户时效性更强的回答。 据媒体报道，预计 OpenAI 将在本周日的超级碗上投放第一支电视广告。超级碗被称作 "美国春 晚"，广告投放价格昂贵，一条 30 秒左右的广告就要 700 万美元。过去 OpenAI 一直以极少做营 销、投放著称，去年年底，OpenAI 聘请了 Coinbase Global 前营销主管 Kate Rouch 担任该公司历史 首位首席营销官，这也意味着这家公司要加速进入普通消费者市场。 特斯拉 1 月在欧洲多国销量下跌，跟马斯克最近太活跃有点关系 ...