并没有看到美国关税对一季度GDP增速造成了特别冲击。 日本首席贸易谈判代表、经济再生大臣赤泽亮正：目标是尽可能快地与美国达成贸易协议。 敦促美国重新考虑关税的立场没有变化。 ...

Group 1 - The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model projects a 2.5% growth rate for the US GDP in the second quarter, an increase from the previous estimate of 2.2% [1]

重要新闻 1. 国务院关税税则委员会：调整对原产于美国的进口商品加征关税措施 国务院关税税则委员会公布公告，自2025年5月14日12时01分起，调整《国务院关税税则委员会关于对 原产于美国的进口商品加征关税的公告》（税委会公告2025年第4号）规定的加征关税税率，由34%调 整为10%，在90天内暂停实施24%的对美加征关税税率。自2025年5月14日12时01分起，停止实施《国 务院关税税则委员会关于调整对原产于美国的进口商品加征关税措施的公告》（税委会公告2025年第5 号）和《国务院关税税则委员会关于调整对原产于美国的进口商品加征关税措施的公告》（税委会公告 2025年第6号）规定的加征关税措施。 2. 市场监管总局等五部门约谈外卖平台企业 近日，市场监管总局会同中央社会工作部、中央网信办、人力资源社会保障部、商务部，针对当前外卖 行业竞争中存在的突出问题，约谈京东、美团、饿了么等平台企业。要求相关平台企业严格遵守《中华 人民共和国电子商务法》《中华人民共和国反不正当竞争法》《中华人民共和国食品安全法》等法律法 规规定，严格落实主体责任，主动履行社会责任，加强内部管理，合法规范经营，公平有序竞争，共同 ...

Economic Overview - In the first quarter of this year, China's economy continued to show a stable recovery, with a year-on-year growth of 5.4%, surpassing last year's overall growth of 5% and the first quarter's growth of 5.3% [1] - Economic performance varied across cities, with regions like Yulin, Luoyang, Qujing, and Liuzhou experiencing negative GDP growth compared to the same period last year [1] City-Specific Analysis Yulin: Energy Cycle - Yulin's GDP has grown from over 200 billion to over 700 billion in the past decade, with a peak increase of over 100 billion in a single year [6] - The city's economy is heavily reliant on fossil energy, contributing significantly to its GDP, with 80% of Shaanxi's coal and 70% of its natural gas produced in Yulin [9] - In Q1, Yulin's actual GDP growth was 5.6%, but nominal GDP decreased by 0.42%, largely due to falling coal prices [9] Luoyang: Industrial Restructuring - Luoyang's GDP for Q1 was 135.54 billion, showing a year-on-year growth of 5.9%, but a decrease of nearly 1.9 billion compared to the same period last year [10] - The city has faced continuous negative GDP growth for two consecutive years, attributed to declining prices in various sectors [10][11] - Luoyang's traditional industries, such as steel and chemicals, are under pressure from price declines, necessitating a shift towards high-value industries [13] Qujing: Awaiting Recovery - Qujing's GDP has declined for two consecutive years, with a reduction of 10.9 billion in Q1 [17] - The city, traditionally reliant on resource-based industries, is facing challenges as both traditional and emerging sectors experience downturns [17] - Corruption issues have also impacted local economic development, with significant investigations into local officials [17] Liuzhou: Industrial Revival - Liuzhou's GDP for Q1 was 72.003 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 4.6%, but a decrease of 1.62 billion compared to last year [19] - The city has seen a decline in several key industrial outputs, indicating a stagnation in economic growth since 2018 [20][22] - Liuzhou is attempting to transition from traditional industries to emerging sectors like new energy and materials, but the pace of change is slow [25][26]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - The report is optimistic that alumina will remain in a low - level oscillation this month, and the aluminum price will fluctuate weakly this month [3][68][69] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Alumina futures stopped falling this month after three months of decline. The main contract fluctuated narrowly between 2800 - 2900 yuan/ton, and closed at 2729 yuan/ton at the end of the month, down 9.03%. The monthly structure changed from a slight Contango to a Back structure in the near - term [9] - The Shanghai Aluminum futures price dropped from 20500 yuan/ton to 18960 yuan/ton at the beginning of April and then fluctuated between 19500 - 20000 yuan/ton, closing at 19910 yuan/ton at the end of the month, down 2.71%. LME aluminum fell to 2300 US dollars/ton at the beginning of the month and then rebounded slightly, closing at 2392 US dollars/ton, down 5.75%. The Shanghai - LME aluminum ratio fluctuated between 8.27 and 8.17, with an import loss of about 1000 yuan/ton [10] 2. Macroeconomics 2.1 Overseas - The Fed maintained the federal funds rate at 4.25 - 4.5% in May. The US tariff policy is in a 90 - day chaotic period of suspending the collection of "reciprocal tariffs". The US imposes a 145% tariff on Chinese goods and may impose a 245% tariff, while exempting some goods from a 125% "reciprocal tariff". The progress of Sino - US trade negotiations is slow [13] - In April, the US added 177,000 non - farm jobs, and the unemployment rate remained at 4.2%. The core PCE in March increased by 2.65% year - on - year. The real GDP in the first quarter of 2025 decreased by 0.3% quarter - on - quarter. The manufacturing PMI in April was 48.7%. The consumer confidence index and the enterprise capital investment intention index both hit new lows since 2020 [14] - The eurozone inflation rate dropped to 2.2% in April. The first - quarter GDP increased by 0.4% quarter - on - quarter and 1.2% year - on - year. The US tariff is expected to have a negative impact on the European economy, and the GDP growth in the second and third quarters is expected to stagnate or only increase by 0.1% [15] 2.2 Domestic - In the first quarter of 2025, China's GDP increased by 5.4% year - on - year. In March, the year - on - year growth rates of social retail sales, fixed - asset investment, and industrial added value all exceeded expectations. The real estate development investment decreased by 9.9% year - on - year, and the new - built commercial housing sales area decreased by 3% year - on - year [16][17] - In March, China's CPI decreased by 0.1% year - on - year, and PPI decreased by 2.5% year - on - year. M2 increased by 7.0% year - on - year, and social financing stock increased by 8.4% year - on - year. The year - on - year growth rates of industrial enterprise revenue and profit both improved [17] - The Politburo meeting in April set a positive tone, and subsequent reserve requirements and interest rates were cut, releasing a signal of "moderate easing" [18] 3. Alumina Market Analysis 3.1 Bauxite - Inland mines continued to resume production in April. Due to the decline in alumina prices, inland enterprises lowered the bauxite procurement base price. By the end of April, the bauxite prices in Shanxi, Henan, Guizhou, and Guangxi all decreased compared with the previous month [23] - In the first quarter of 2025, China's bauxite imports increased by about 1.075 billion tons compared with the same period last year, with an increase of about 940 million tons from Guinea. The main import countries are Guinea (77.3%) and Australia (16.6%). The bauxite price is under pressure [24] 3.2 Alumina Supply - In March 2025, China's alumina production was 7.558 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.5%. In April, there were batch maintenance and production cuts, and new capacities in Hebei and Guangxi were put into production. It is expected that the daily output in April will be slightly lower than that in March, and the production will be about 7.3 million tons [25] - In March 2024, China's alumina exports were 144,100 tons, and imports were 303,800 tons. The export window closed in late February, and the export volume in April is expected to decrease [26] 3.3 Alumina Inventory and Spot - By the end of April, the alumina futures exchange inventory was 271,000 tons, a decrease of 28,000 tons from the previous month, and the exchange factory inventory was 7,200 tons, a decrease of 2,400 tons from the previous month [26] - In April, the alumina spot premium initially remained around 200 yuan/ton and then fell to around 100 yuan/ton. The overall transaction was light [26] 3.4 Alumina Cost and Profit - In March 2025, the average fully - taxed cost of China's alumina industry was 3209.58 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 2.44% and a year - on - year increase of 14.11%. The decline in raw material prices led to a slight decrease in costs [27] 3.5 Alumina Viewpoint - The large - scale production cuts in mid - April helped the alumina price stop falling. In May, there were batch maintenance and production cuts in the south, and new production of 1.6 million tons in the north began. The alumina market is expected to oscillate at a low level this month, and attention should be paid to the fluctuations in the supply - demand balance [3][28][29] 4. Electrolytic Aluminum Market Analysis 4.1 Electrolytic Aluminum Supply - In March 2025, China's primary aluminum production was 3.7116 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.1%. In April, there were both production increases and decreases. It is estimated that the production in April was about 3.615 million tons [42] - In March 2025, the global (excluding China) alumina production was 4.821 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.66%. It is expected that the production in April will be 4.713 million tons [42] - In March 2025, China's primary aluminum imports were about 222,000 tons, and exports were about 9,000 tons. The net import is expected to remain high in April [43] 4.2 Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory - By April 30, the aluminum ingot inventory was 614,000 tons, and the aluminum rod inventory was 151,000 tons. The total social inventory decreased by 296,000 tons from the previous month [43] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 77,000 tons to 69,000 tons by the end of April [44] 4.3 Electrolytic Aluminum Spot - In April, the electrolytic aluminum spot price was basically at a premium, with a maximum premium of 60 yuan/ton and a minimum slight discount of 10 yuan/ton. The LME discount fluctuated between - 20 and - 40 US dollars/ton [45] 4.4 Electrolytic Aluminum Cost and Profit - In April, the theoretical average fully - taxed cost of China's electrolytic aluminum industry was 16,448.79 yuan/ton, a decrease of 699.4 yuan/ton from the previous month. The monthly theoretical profit was 3,467.4 yuan/ton, a decrease of 108.21 yuan/ton from the previous month [48] 5. Consumption Analysis 5.1 Aluminum Processing - In April, the aluminum processing industry still performed well, but there was obvious structural differentiation. The production and orders of building profiles, industrial profiles, and aluminum cables increased, while the production of aluminum plate, strip, and foil and aluminum alloy maintained stability. The decline in the aluminum price center of gravity partially alleviated the replenishment cost pressure, but the demand transmission lag suppressed the replenishment willingness [62] 5.2 Domestic Terminal Consumption - From January to March, the national real estate development investment decreased by 9.9% year - on - year, and the new - start, construction, and completion areas all decreased year - on - year [63] - In March, the sales volume of new energy vehicles was 1.237 million, a year - on - year increase of 40.1%. From January to March, the sales volume was 3.075 million, a year - on - year increase of 47.1% [63] - In March, the completed investment in power grid infrastructure was 95.6 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 24.8%. In April, the aluminum cable enterprises had sufficient orders, and new orders are expected to land in late May [64] - In March 2025, the newly - added photovoltaic installed capacity was 20.24GW, a year - on - year increase of 124.39%. From January to March, the cumulative newly - added installed capacity was 59.71GW, a year - on - year increase of 30.54% [65] 5.3 Aluminum Product Exports - In March 2025, China's exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products were 506,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.17% and a month - on - month increase of 24.02%. From January to March, the cumulative exports were 1.365 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.6%. The export volume is expected to decline month - on - month [66] 6. Market Outlook - Macroeconomically, the US economic outlook is uncertain, and the Fed is difficult to cut interest rates. China's monetary policy has released a signal of "moderate easing" [68] - Alumina is expected to oscillate at a low level this month, and attention should be paid to the supply - demand balance [68] - For electrolytic aluminum, the supply increases slightly, the consumption is at the end of the seasonal peak season, and the inventory starts to accumulate after the May Day holiday. The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate weakly this month [69]

Core Viewpoint - The consensus among various institutions indicates a strong likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Bank of England, with further cuts anticipated in the coming months, potentially paving the way for a total reduction to 3.25% by year-end [1][2]. Group 1: Rate Cut Predictions - Capital Economics predicts a 25 basis point cut, with a further 25 basis point reduction expected in November, bringing the benchmark rate to 4% by year-end [1]. - TD Securities anticipates a 25 basis point cut with a voting split of 8-1, suggesting that member Dingra may support a 50 basis point cut [1]. - Deutsche Bank expects a 25 basis point cut, with three additional cuts in August, November, and December, indicating a potential for larger cuts in the future [1]. Group 2: Economic Growth and Inflation Outlook - Pantheon Macroeconomics has revised GDP growth forecasts down to 0.9% for this year and 1% for next year, with inflation expected to rise to 3.4% in Q2 [1]. - Oxford Economics suggests that concerns over U.S. tariffs on the UK economy may prompt a more proactive approach to rate cuts by the Bank of England [2]. - Barclays indicates that the Monetary Policy Committee may signal a shift towards a lower inflation outlook, potentially opening the door for a June rate cut [2]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Expectations - Morgan Stanley notes that at least two committee members may support a 50 basis point cut, reflecting a growing dovish sentiment within the committee [1]. - Ebury highlights that while the market expects a total of 90 basis points in cuts this year, the Bank of England may struggle to meet these expectations, which could bolster the pound if the market's expectations are deemed excessive [2]. - ING suggests that the pace of rate cuts may not align with market expectations, predicting a quarterly cut approach instead [2].

捷克央行：预计2025年GDP增速为2.0%（此前预期为2.0%），2026年为2.1%（此前预期为2.4%）。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Atlanta Federal Reserve's GDPNow model has revised its forecast for the U.S. second-quarter GDP growth rate to 2.2%, up from a previous estimate of 1.1% [1] Group 1 - The GDPNow model indicates a significant increase in the expected growth rate for the second quarter, suggesting a more robust economic performance than previously anticipated [1]

亚特兰大联储GDPNow模型预计美国第二季度GDP增速为1.1%，此前预计为2.4%。 ...

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs significantly lowered the US Q1 GDP growth forecast to -0.8% due to an unexpected widening of the trade deficit in March, driven by increased consumer goods imports [1] - Morgan Stanley highlighted that uncertainty surrounding tariff policies and questions regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve may lead foreign investors to reduce their investments in the US [2] - Pantheon Macroeconomics indicated that the uncertainty from tariffs will limit any significant rebound in the French economy, projecting stagnation for the remainder of the year [3] Group 2 - ING reported that the euro has lost its status as a preferred alternative to the dollar, with most G10 currencies performing better than the euro recently [4] - ING also noted that news of potential reductions in auto tariffs by the Trump administration helped the dollar recover some of its recent losses [5] - Capital Economics stated that the impact of tariffs on the Eurozone economy is expected to intensify, with the economic sentiment index dropping from 95.2 to 93.6 in April [6] Group 3 - Deutsche Bank suggested that the European Central Bank should act more decisively to address increasing supply shocks and rising inflation [8] - Tianfeng Securities projected that the aerospace engine sector may stabilize and recover, with a significant portion of military electronic stocks held by active funds [9] - CITIC Securities reported that the implementation of new tax refund policies for departing travelers could boost domestic consumption, estimating a potential market space of nearly 100 billion [10]