Core Viewpoint - The January PMI shows a decline in both manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors, while the BCI has increased, indicating a mixed economic outlook influenced by seasonal factors and geopolitical risks [1][2][3]. Group 1: PMI and BCI Analysis - January PMI decreased by 0.8 points for both manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors, with manufacturing PMI at 49.3 and non-manufacturing PMI at 49.4, both below previous values [4][5]. - The BCI rose to 53.7, up 3.9 points from the previous value, suggesting a more favorable business climate despite the PMI decline [5][6]. - The decline in manufacturing PMI is attributed to heightened global geopolitical risks and rising upstream raw material prices, which have a more significant impact on small and medium-sized enterprises [7][8]. Group 2: Price Indices and Economic Indicators - Both the producer price index (PPI) and purchase price index reached their highest levels since October 2023 and June 2024, respectively, indicating further potential increases in January PPI [10][11][12]. - Brent oil prices increased by 16.2%, while the South China industrial product index and the China chemical product price index rose by 4.5% and 4.8%, respectively, reflecting upward pressure on prices [13]. Group 3: Construction Sector Insights - The construction PMI fell significantly in January, attributed to low temperatures and the upcoming Spring Festival, with a year-on-year decline of 0.5 points [15][16]. - It is anticipated that infrastructure projects will see increased activity post-Spring Festival in March, which will be a critical variable for assessing the macroeconomic outlook for 2026 [15]. Group 4: Consumer Price Expectations - The BCI data indicates a notable increase in the corporate financing environment index, suggesting a positive start for credit in January [20]. - The consumer price expectations index rose by 9.5 points, significantly higher than the intermediate goods price expectations index, indicating stronger expectations for price increases in consumer goods [20][21][22].

Group 1: PMI Data Overview - In January, the manufacturing PMI decreased to 49.3%, down from 50.1% in December[2] - The non-manufacturing PMI also fell to 49.4%, compared to 50.2% in the previous month[2] - The decline in PMI is attributed to the upcoming Spring Festival and a high base effect from the previous month[2] Group 2: Sector Performance - High-tech and midstream equipment manufacturing PMIs remain above the threshold at 52.0% and 50.1% respectively, despite slight declines[2] - Downstream consumer goods manufacturing PMI dropped to 48.3%, indicating a significant decrease of 2.1 percentage points[2] - The construction PMI fell to 48.8%, a decrease of 4.0 percentage points, reflecting seasonal impacts and a high base from the previous month[2] Group 3: Price Indices - The main raw material purchase price index rose to 56.1%, an increase of 3.0 percentage points, while the factory price index reached 50.6%, up by 1.7 percentage points[2] - This marks the first time in 20 months that the factory price index has risen above the critical point, suggesting a potential narrowing of PPI declines[2] Group 4: Demand and Supply Dynamics - The production index decreased to 50.6%, down by 1.1 percentage points, while the new orders index fell to 49.2%, a drop of 1.6 percentage points[2] - New export orders also declined to 47.8%, indicating a slowdown in external demand[2] Group 5: Policy and Economic Outlook - The first batch of "two new" funds has been allocated, and a coordinated fiscal and financial policy to boost domestic demand has been deployed[2] - Continued monitoring of investment trends, consumer performance during the Spring Festival, and policy developments during the Two Sessions is advised[2]

chence@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790524020002 制造业：PMI 再度转弱，生产与需求均下行 (1)需求下行叠加高基数拖累，制造业景气度降至荣枯线下。1 月制造业 PMI 为 49.3%、环比下行了 0.8 个百分点，明显弱于季节性规律。此前我们曾指出"12 月工作日数同比增加 2 天，作为环比指标的 PMI 读数会出现一定改善"，实际 上经济改善幅度可能有限，但这形成了较高的基数并拖累 1 月 PMI 表现。分行 业来看，农副食品加工、铁路船舶航空航天设备等产需指数位于高景气区间， 油煤加工、汽车等行业则相对承压。 (2)有色原油涨价提振工业原材料价格，预计 1 月 PPI 同比延续回升。1 月 PMI 原材料购进价格为 56.1%，较前值上升了 3.0 个百分点；PMI 出厂价格为 50.6%， 较前值上升了 1.7 个百分点。根据高频指标，我们预计 1 月 PPI 环比可能在 0.3% 左右、同比为-1.3%左右。 2026 年 02 月 01 日 开年 PMI 边际放缓 宏观研究团队 ——兼评 1 月 PMI 数据 何宁（分析师） 陈策（分析师） hening@kysec.cn ...

[Table_Page] 宏观经济研究报告 2026 年 2 月 1 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 广发宏观 1 月 PMI 向下，BCI 向上 [Tabl e_Author] 分析师： 郭磊 SAC 执证号：S0260516070002 SFC CE.no: BNY419 021-38003572 guolei@gf.com.cn [Table_Summary] 报告摘要： ⚫ 1 月 PMI 向下，制造业、非制造业环比均回落 0.8 个点；BCI 向上，BCI 环比回升 3.9 个点。我们理解主要是 环比指标和同比指标的区别。PMI 是一个环比指标，BCI 在指标设计上则兼容环比和同比。2025 年春节在 1 月 底，2026 年在 2 月中下旬，1 月企业普遍处于正常开工状态，所以同比会比较有利。 据万得数据（下同），1 月制造业 PMI 为 49.3，低于前值的 50.1；非制造业 PMI 为 49.4，低于前值 50.2。 1 月 BCI 为 53.7，高于前值的 49.8。 ⚫ 制造业 PMI 的放缓幅度要略大于季节性，历史上同样春节偏晚的 2015 年 1 月、2018 年 1 ...

【#黄金白银为啥暴跌#[思考]】1月30日，国际黄金和白银价格继续大幅下跌，均创下数十年来最大单 日跌幅。市场分析认为，特朗普30日提名凯文·沃什为下任美联储主席，加剧此次贵金属价格大跌。沃 什曾公开批评量化宽松政策的副作用，认为美联储需要与美国财政部在政策上更紧密地协作。此外，美 国劳工部30日公布的2025年12月份和全年PPI均高于经济学家此前预期，显示通胀逐渐融入整体经济。 PPI上涨可能迫使美联储维持"中性"货币政策时间长于预期，利空金价。分析人士认为，经历近一个月 来金银价格暴涨，此次回调并不意外。（央视新闻） ...

[Table_Author] 分析师：陶川 分析师：钟渝梅 执业证书：S0590525110006 执业证书：S0590525110008 邮箱：taochuan@glms.com.cn 邮箱：zhongyumei@glms.com.cn 更值得关注的是，在已召开两会的地方中，多数下调或维持了 2026 年增长目标， 我们认为或说明"十五五"开局之年，各地正从以往追求"增速"向注重"提质" 转变。这一结构性调整的方向，也从 1 月处于荣枯线（以上）的 EPMI、高技术制 造业 PMI 中得以印证。 相关研究 本公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 证券研究报告 1 1 月 PMI：开年的微妙信号 glmszqdatemark 2026 年 01 月 31 日 2026 年 1 月 PMI 点评 事件：1 月 31 日，国家统计局公布 2026 年 1 月中国采购经理指数运行情况。1 月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为 49.3%，比上月下降 0.8 个百分点，制造 业景气水平有所回落。 1 月 PMI 回落可能不完全归因于统计局所说的"传统淡季"，其背后有多重节奏 性因素交织。比如由于今 ...

Core Insights - Kevin Worsh is viewed as a strong candidate for the Fed chair position, bringing fresh ideas and independence to the role, which may not align closely with the Trump administration [2][4][5] - The market is reacting negatively to the potential for slower interest rate cuts under Worsh's leadership, contributing to a selloff in stocks and declines in gold and silver prices [7][9][11] Market Reactions - The 10-year bond yield is at 4.26%, indicating market adjustments in response to Worsh's nomination [7] - Gold prices have dropped by 5% and silver by 13.7%, reflecting significant volatility in the metals market [8][11] - Overall market sentiment is down, with major stocks like Apple and Visa showing small declines pre-market [10] Economic Indicators - The Producer Price Index (PPI) shows a headline increase of 0.5% month-over-month and 3% year-over-year, with final demand services up by 0.7% [13][14] - A notable 1.7% increase in margins for final demand trade services has skewed the PPI numbers [14] - Upcoming labor market data, including jobless claims and non-farm payroll, is expected to be closely monitored [15][16]

（来源：吴说） 沃什曾于 2006–2011 年担任美联储理事，并曾代表美联储参与 G20 事务；此前还在白宫国家经济委员 会任职，并在摩根士丹利从事投行业务。目前，沃什为胡佛研究所访问学者、斯坦福大学商学院讲师， 并任职于杜肯家族办公室。Kevin Warsh 曾是加密项目 Basis 的早期投资人之一，并任加密风投机构 Electric Capital 的顾问。 3.香港加快完善虚拟资产与稳定币监管框架 香港财库局局长许正宇表示，香港持续推进虚拟资产监管。《稳定币条例》已生效，金管局正处理法币 稳定币发行人牌照申请；虚拟资产交易、托管、顾问及管理服务的监管制度将于今年内提交立法会。政 府亦计划落实 OECD 加密资产申报框架，预计 2028 年起开展跨境税务信息自动交换。 1.美国公布 2025 年 12 月最终需求 PPI 环比上涨 0.5% 美国公布 2025 年 12 月最终需求 PPI 环比上涨 0.5%，高于 11 月的 0.2% 和 10 月的 0.1%。其中，最终 需求服务价格环比上涨 0.7%，为主要推动因素，最终需求商品价格环比持平。剔除食品、能源和贸易 服务后的核心 PPI 环比上涨 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that the US Producer Price Index (PPI) for December showed a year-on-year increase of 3%, exceeding the expected 2.7% and matching the previous value of 3.00% [1] - The core PPI year-on-year increased by 3.3%, above the expected 2.90% and the previous value of 3.00% [1] - Following the release of the PPI data, the US dollar index (DXY) rose slightly by nearly 10 points, and US Treasury yields also saw a minor increase [1] Group 2 - The month-on-month PPI final demand rose by 0.5%, surpassing the estimate of 0.2%, while the core PPI excluding food and energy increased by 0.7%, also above the expected 0.2% [2] - Year-on-year, the PPI final demand increased by 3.0%, compared to the estimate of 2.8%, and the core PPI excluding food and energy rose by 3.3%, exceeding the estimate of 2.9% [2] - The increase in service costs was significant, with trade profit margins reaching their highest growth since mid-2024, primarily driven by higher wholesale profit margins for machinery [2] Group 3 - The latest PPI data aligns with earlier reports, as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December showed a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, consistent with market expectations and previous values [2] - The report indicates that some companies are passing on higher tariffs on imported raw materials to consumers [2] - Despite inflation levels being elevated relative to the Federal Reserve's target, there has been no sign of the anticipated tariff-induced hyperinflation as per responses from Democratic Party surveys [4]

化工ETF份额增长最多 Wind资讯数据显示，截至1月29日记者发稿，在中证细分产业主题指数中，细分有色指数年内涨幅最大，为34.04%；细分 化工指数次之，涨幅为12.47%；细分地产、细分机械、细分食品、细分医药、细分金融涨幅分别为3.88%、3.34%、2.62%、 1.46%和-5.56%；由此可见，周期板块整体表现突出。 跟踪细分化工指数的ETF业绩随之"水涨船高"，鹏华基金、华宝基金、富国基金、天弘基金等多家公募机构旗下的化工 ETF年内净值增长率均在13%以上。基金净值的增长也吸引了资金的踊跃申购，多只化工ETF份额增长较快。 本报记者 方凌晨 今年以来，A股市场周期行情持续演绎，化工板块与有色金属板块同频走高，成为周期主线中的两大核心方向。化工板块 的市场关注度提升，带动多只化工ETF（交易型开放式指数基金）份额大涨。 另据记者了解，多位主动权益类基金的基金经理此前已在组合中配置了化工板块。有业内人士表示，在"反内卷"背景下， 化工行业盈利能力逐渐修复，配置价值凸显。 行业盈利逐渐修复 今年以来，A股市场震荡走强，周期行情持续演绎，未来市场走向和投资机会成为投资者关注的焦点。多位基金经理表 示 ...