2025 年 07 月 15 日 工业硅：市场消息发酵，盘面上行 多晶硅：政策扰动，关注现货成交情况 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 | | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | Si2509收盘价（元/吨） | 8,695 | 280 | 650 | 1,240 | | | | | Si2509成交量（手） | 1,473,993 | 520,449 | 857,250 | 1,164,365 | | | | | Si2509持仓量（手） | 402,890 | 35,080 | 18,183 | 281,386 | | | | 工业硅、多晶硅期货市场 | PS2508收盘价（元/吨） | 41,765 | 435 | 5,250 | - | | | | | PS2508成交量（手） | 470,329 | -407,888 | 30,065 | - | | | | | ...

Core Insights - Data centers are facing power supply constraints that will impact their growth and the growth of IT services provided [2][8] - The data center physical infrastructure (DCPI) market is expected to grow significantly, driven by investments from hyperscale data center operators and colocation service providers to meet AI workload demands [2][6] - North America leads in growth with a 23% year-over-year increase, and data center power consumption in the U.S. is projected to rise from 4.4% of total electricity in 2023 to between 6.7% and 12% by 2028 [3][6] Group 1: Market Growth and Trends - The DCPI market is projected to grow by 17% year-over-year in Q1 2025, marking the fourth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth [2] - Liquid cooling technology adoption has surged, with revenue doubling, and high-density power racks nearing 600 kW [2][6] - By 2029, global data center capital expenditures are expected to exceed $1 trillion, with a compound annual growth rate of 21% [6] Group 2: Power Consumption and Infrastructure - Data centers currently consume about 3% of global electricity, which could double by 2030, leading to significant power generation and supply challenges [8] - The total electricity consumption of data centers in the U.S. rose from 58 TWh in 2014 to 176 TWh in 2023, with projections of 325 TWh to 580 TWh by 2028 [3][8] - The average rack power density is around 15 kW, but AI workloads require between 60 kW and 120 kW per rack [6][20] Group 3: Environmental Considerations - Data center operators are increasingly focused on reducing carbon emissions and improving sustainability through renewable energy sources [18][21] - The shift from water cooling to air cooling can reduce water usage and electricity consumption, although liquid cooling may be necessary for high-heat GPU servers [18] - The entire power supply chain, from resource extraction to grid infrastructure, requires significant investment and modernization to meet future demands [21]

新疆立新能源股份有限公司 Xinjiang Lixin Energy Co., Ltd. 新疆立新能源股份有限公司向特定对象发行 A 股股票 募集资金使用可行性分析报告（第五次修订稿） 新疆立新能源股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）为贯彻实施公司整体发展 战略，顺应国家政策趋势，大力发展和利用可再生能源，进一步提升公司核心竞 争力，公司拟实施向特定对象发行 A 股股票，并对本次向特定对象发行股票募 集资金的使用可行性分析如下： 一、本次募集资金使用计划 公司本次向特定对象发行股票拟募集资金总额（含发行费用）为 18.29 亿元 （已扣除前次募集资金用于补充流动资金占比超过 30%的影响），扣除发行费用 后的募集资金净额将用于以下项目： 扣减前拟投入募 扣减后拟投 单位：万元 入募 序号 项目名称 项目总投入 扣减金额 二、本次向特定对象发行股票募集资金投资项目的必要性及可行性 立新能源三塘湖 20 万千瓦/80 万千瓦时储能规模+80 万千瓦风电项目 新疆立新能源股份有限公司 Xinjiang Lixin Energy Co., Ltd. 集资金金额 集资金金额 立新能源三塘湖 20 万千 模+80 万千瓦风电 ...

Core Viewpoint - Two large-scale battery storage projects in Australia, totaling 5.2 GWh, have been submitted for approval under the Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act, aimed at enhancing the stability of the local renewable energy grid [1]. Group 1: Canyonleigh Battery Storage Project - The Canyonleigh project, developed by Spanish sustainable energy developer X-Elio, has a capacity of 300 MW / 1200 MWh and is located in the Southern Highlands of New South Wales [2]. - The project site is adjacent to the Willavale Park renewable energy project, which includes a 300 MW / 600 MWh battery storage system and a 72 MW peak photovoltaic power station, creating a synergistic "storage + photovoltaic" layout [2]. - The total area of the Canyonleigh project is approximately 48 hectares, with the storage system occupying 13 hectares, utilizing lithium-ion batteries. The construction and commissioning period is expected to be 12 to 18 months, with a design operational lifespan of 20 to 30 years [3]. Group 2: Kiar Battery Storage Project - The Kiar project, led by independent renewable energy consultancy BID Energy, has a capacity of 1000 MW / 4000 MWh and is located about 100 kilometers north of Sydney in the Central Coast region of New South Wales [4]. - The project will connect to the National Electricity Market via a 330 kV line operated by Transgrid, leveraging existing infrastructure to reduce grid connection costs [4]. - The project will occupy approximately 110 hectares, with a design operational lifespan of 25 years. The construction period is estimated to be 18 to 24 months, with plans for commissioning by the end of 2027 or early 2028 [4]. Group 3: Environmental Approval Process - Both projects must undergo environmental impact assessments as per the Australian Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act. If deemed to have no significant ecological impact, they will receive development approval; otherwise, further scrutiny will be required for any major environmental risks [5]. Group 4: Market Context - The Australian electricity market is undergoing significant reforms, which are expected to benefit battery storage initiatives. Australian battery manufacturers are also entering the U.S. storage market, targeting a total of 5 GWh [6].

Core Viewpoint - China has emerged as the world's first "Electric Empire," demonstrating remarkable stability in electricity supply amidst global energy crises, contrasting sharply with the struggles faced by other countries like the US, India, and Germany [1][2]. Group 1: China's Electricity Supply Stability - In July 2023, China's peak electricity load surpassed 1.2 billion kilowatts without any large-scale power cuts, while countries like India and the US faced severe electricity shortages [2][3]. - China's total electricity generation in 2023 reached an astonishing 9.46 trillion kilowatt-hours, more than double that of the US and three times that of the EU [2][3]. - The installed capacity of non-fossil energy sources in China surpassed 50% of total capacity for the first time in 2023, reaching 1.57 billion kilowatts, marking a 24.1% year-on-year increase [2]. Group 2: Strategic Planning and Infrastructure - China's electricity development follows a proactive planning approach, with major state-owned companies like State Grid and Southern Power Grid making long-term investments 5-10 years in advance [3][4]. - In 2023, China added 37 million kilowatts of new power generation capacity, bringing the total installed capacity to 2.92 billion kilowatts, significantly outpacing the US and Europe [3]. - The centralized dispatch system in China allows for efficient cross-regional power distribution, with 849.7 billion kilowatt-hours transmitted across regions in 2023, a 9.7% increase from the previous year [3][4]. Group 3: Technological Innovations - China has made significant technological advancements in the energy sector, including ultra-supercritical coal power technology, which achieves over 50% efficiency, far exceeding the global average of 35% [6][7]. - The country has built the world's largest molten salt tower solar power plant, addressing the intermittency issues of solar energy [7]. - China's ultra-high voltage transmission technology enables the efficient transfer of energy from resource-rich western regions to eastern load centers, with a total cross-regional transmission capacity of 188.15 million kilowatts by 2023 [7][8]. Group 4: Economic Implications - China's electricity cost advantages are reshaping global industrial dynamics, particularly benefiting energy-intensive industries like aluminum, where electricity costs account for 40% of total production costs [9][10]. - The disparity in electricity prices has led to a significant decline in European aluminum production, while China's share of global production has exceeded 60% [9]. - China's leadership in renewable energy positions it favorably in the green industry competition, with significant contributions to electric vehicle battery production and related supply chains [10]. Group 5: Global Influence and Cooperation - China's electricity advantages are translating into economic competitiveness, with the country exporting its energy solutions and technologies to regions like Southeast Asia and Africa [11][12]. - The concept of a "global electricity interconnection" is being pursued, aiming to connect China's grid with neighboring countries, potentially reshaping the global energy landscape [11].

Core Insights - The report from the UK Energy Research Institute highlights a concerning trend where, despite record investments in renewable energy and net-zero commitments from major economies, global carbon emissions are projected to reach a new high in 2024, totaling 4.08 billion tons, an increase of 0.5 billion tons from 2023 [2][4] Group 1: Global Carbon Emissions Trends - Global carbon emissions have been on an upward trajectory since 2021, with an average annual increase of nearly 1% over the past decade, despite increasing international climate commitments [2][3] - The report indicates that while renewable energy sources like wind and solar are expanding, they are not keeping pace with the growth in global energy demand, leading to continued increases in carbon emissions [4] Group 2: Regional Emission Patterns - Over the past decade, carbon emissions have increased by 25% in Africa, 15% in the Middle East, and over 9% in the Asia-Pacific region, while Europe has seen an average annual decrease of 1.4% [3] - The EU's carbon emissions in 2024 are projected to be 3.7 billion tons, a 15% reduction compared to a decade ago, with countries like Germany and the UK making significant progress through policy initiatives [3] Group 3: Energy Transition Challenges - The energy transition is progressing slowly, with renewable energy sources being added to the energy mix without a corresponding reduction in fossil fuel use, which is a key reason for the ongoing rise in global emissions [4] - The report emphasizes that unless global energy demand growth slows or renewable energy begins to significantly replace fossil fuels, emissions are likely to continue to rise [4]

Core Viewpoint - The importance of summer social practice in cultivating college students' patriotism and enhancing their sense of responsibility and mission is emphasized, especially in the context of the 80th anniversary of the victory in the Chinese People's War of Resistance Against Japanese Aggression and the World Anti-Fascist War [1][3]. Group 1 - Summer social practice serves as a profound revolutionary tradition education opportunity, helping students recognize the value of peace and the importance of remembering history [1]. - Engaging in community service, such as medical assistance and educational support for left-behind children, allows students to practice professional ethics while serving society [1]. - Students from various fields, including agriculture and renewable energy, can contribute to local development through hands-on research and data analysis, fostering a sense of national pride and dedication [1]. Group 2 - By integrating their professional knowledge with local realities, students can transform abstract patriotism into concrete actions that serve the people and build the nation [2]. - Summer is also a prime time for students to observe the world and expand their horizons, with opportunities to engage in cutting-edge research in fields like artificial intelligence and biotechnology [2]. - Understanding history, engaging in grassroots work, and exploring advanced technology can help contemporary students cultivate a sense of national pride and establish ambitious goals for serving the country [2].

Group 1 - The article discusses the transition of Shanxi province, China's largest coal-producing area, towards a greener future, highlighting the challenges and opportunities in moving away from coal dependency [1][2] - Analysts are closely monitoring how China balances its green agenda with socio-economic development needs, especially in light of the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1] - Chinese leaders emphasize that the country's actions to combat climate change will not slow down, indicating a commitment to green transformation that will have global implications [1] Group 2 - Shanxi province is rich in coal resources, but there is a growing recognition of the need to diversify the economy, particularly through tourism and cultural heritage [2] - The province has seen a significant increase in tourism, with over 91,000 visitors to the Xiaoxitian scenic area during the last National Day holiday, marking a 335% year-on-year growth [2] - Local companies are beginning to integrate renewable energy into their operations, with installed capacity reaching 61.89 million kilowatts by the end of last year, and some former coal companies are pivoting towards clean energy solutions [3]

Core Insights - The article highlights the growing demand and diversification in the global energy storage market, with multiple companies securing significant orders across various regions including North America, Australia, Finland, and Indonesia [1]. Group 1: Company Developments - CATL has secured a major order for a total of 550MW/1100MWh battery storage systems for three projects in Texas, USA, with a financing of $233 million from Lydian Energy [2][4]. - The Reeves Plains battery storage project in South Australia, developed by Alinta Energy, has been approved for a first phase of 250MW/1000MWh, with plans to expand to 500MW/2000MWh by 2028 [5][6]. - CATL has publicly announced a total of 45.4GWh of energy storage orders since 2025 [7]. Group 2: New Projects and Collaborations - Jingkong Energy has signed a cooperation agreement with Finnish company AEMA OY to deploy over 300 PotisMobile mobile storage devices, totaling 196MWh, in Finland [10][11]. - Jingkong Energy is also involved in a 160MW/430MWh energy hub project in Texas, USA, in collaboration with SolarMax and Longfellow Energy [11][14]. - Elong Power has entered a strategic cooperation agreement with Indonesia's BPKN to invest approximately $1 billion in off-grid solar-storage projects in remote areas [15]. Group 3: Market Trends and Projections - The U.S. energy storage market is expected to maintain high growth in Q3 due to current tariff policies and the Inflation Reduction Act [5]. - Finland's battery storage market is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 25.1% from 2024 to 2030, driven by the country's carbon neutrality goals and high renewable energy adoption [11].

Core Insights - The wind power industry is experiencing explosive growth, with a projected 94.98% increase in mixed tower market orders and a 79.13% rise in delivery volume in 2024, driven by strong government support for renewable energy [2][3] - The installation target for wind power has surged from 100 million kW to 1.2 billion kW from the 12th to the 14th Five-Year Plan, highlighting the significant potential for mixed towers as an efficient solution in high wind speed and complex terrain areas [2] Policy and Market Demand - Clear policy direction is established with the planning of large wind power bases in desert and arid regions, aiming for an additional 20 million kW of wind and solar power during the 14th Five-Year Plan and 25.5 million kW in the 15th Five-Year Plan [3] - The demand for high-strength, weather-resistant joint adhesives is surging, particularly to meet diverse climate challenges in regions like Heilongjiang, Guangxi, and Shandong [4] National Standards vs. Association Standards - The new national standard GB/T 44543-2024 applies to various engineering fields, including wind power, bridges, and underground structures, while the previous association standard was limited to bridges, indicating a broader applicability of the new standard [5] - The national standard offers more flexible classification based on temperature ranges, enhancing the adaptability of joint adhesives to different environmental conditions [6] Product Safety and Performance - The national standard introduces specific environmental performance requirements, ensuring stricter control over harmful substances and promoting a shift towards environmentally friendly and low-carbon solutions [7] - Performance requirements are more stringent under the national standard, with specific metrics for curing speed and compressive strength, ensuring higher quality and safety for joint adhesives [8][9] Durability and Quantitative Indicators - The national standard provides precise quantification of durability indicators, moving beyond qualitative assessments to include specific numerical evaluations of performance degradation, thus addressing potential engineering risks [12] Company Profile: 卡本 - 卡本, established in 2009, is recognized as a national-level specialized and innovative "little giant" enterprise, focusing on technology innovation across multiple sectors, including construction and energy infrastructure [13] - The company has applied for over 300 national patents and has been involved in the development of various standards, showcasing its commitment to high-quality product development and industry leadership [13] - 卡本's prefabricated segment joint adhesive has been awarded the "Best Component Product" in the 2024 Wind Power Leader Awards, reflecting its advanced technology and application in numerous wind power projects [13][18]