1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - PX, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, urea, benzene, styrene, and soda ash are rated as "Weak" or "Weakly Bearish" [2][37][63][64] - MEG, rubber, synthetic rubber, PP, caustic soda, pulp, glass, methanol, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, and LPG are rated as "Neutral" [2][12][13] - Asphalt is rated as "Weakly Bearish" [23][32] - The container shipping index (European line) has specific strategies of holding 10 - 12 and 10 - 02 reverse spreads lightly [88] 2. Core Views - For PX, the supply is still tight, and it's recommended not to chase short positions in the single - side market, but to take long positions in the calendar spread. Attention should be paid to the compression of forward PXN [12] - PTA is facing increased supply and decreased demand. It's advised not to chase short positions, and to take long positions in the calendar spread. Consider long PX short PTA and long PR short PTA in the 01 contract [12] - MEG is expected to have a bullish single - side market and a long calendar spread strategy due to low inventory and limited import growth [13] - For synthetic rubber, it's expected to have a valuation - based range - bound pattern with narrowed upside space [20][22] - Asphalt is in a range - bound state with a slightly bearish trend [23][32] - LLDPE is expected to have a weakly bearish trend due to increasing supply pressure and weak demand [37][38] - PP has loose spot prices and light trading volume, with a neutral trend [41][42] - Caustic soda is expected to have a short - term range - bound pattern due to cost decline and seasonal demand weakness [44][46] - Pulp is in a range - bound state with high port inventory and weak demand [51][52] - Glass has stable spot prices, and the market is relatively stable [54][55] - Methanol is expected to have a short - term range - bound pattern due to reduced supply and demand [57][59] - Urea is expected to have a short - term range - bound and possibly bearish intraday trend due to weak domestic demand and export support [61][62] - Benzene and styrene are in a weakly bearish state, and attention should be paid to compressing the profit of styrene [64][65] - Soda ash has little change in the spot market and is expected to have a low - level range - bound pattern [66][68] - LPG is expected to have a short - term weakly bearish trend [71][73] - PVC is expected to have a weakly bearish trend due to high production, high inventory, and weak demand [81][82] - Fuel oil had a sharp decline during the day session and may stabilize in the short - term, while low - sulfur fuel oil continues to be weak [86] - The container shipping index (European line) suggests holding 10 - 12 and 10 - 02 reverse spreads lightly [88] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs PX, PTA, MEG - **Market Overview**: On July 15, PX price dropped, and Asian crude oil futures declined. The demand for polyester chains in Asia continued to pressure upstream PX and PTA. PTA spot price fell, and MEG had specific trading prices and arrival plans [6][8][9] - **Trend Intensity**: All are rated as 0 (Neutral) [11] - **Views and Suggestions**: PX supply is tight, PTA faces supply - demand imbalance, and MEG has low inventory and limited import growth [12][13] Rubber - **Fundamental Tracking**: The futures market had changes in price, volume, and open interest. The spot market had price changes in different varieties. The trend intensity is 0 (Neutral) [15] - **Industry News**: Vietnam's natural rubber exports in June 2025 increased compared to May but decreased year - on - year. The imports also had specific changes [18][19] Synthetic Rubber - **Fundamental Tracking**: There were changes in futures prices, trading volume, open interest, and spot prices. The trend intensity is 0 (Neutral) [20] - **Industry News**: The static and dynamic valuation ranges of cis - butadiene rubber were analyzed, and it's expected to have a range - bound pattern [20][22] Asphalt - **Fundamental Tracking**: There were changes in futures prices, trading volume, open interest, and spot prices. The trend intensity is - 1 (Weakly Bearish) [24][32] - **Market News**: The domestic asphalt factory and social inventories had different changes, and the weekly production increased [36] LLDPE - **Fundamental Tracking**: Futures prices, trading volume, open interest, and spot prices had changes. The market price of LLDPE partially declined [37] - **Market Analysis**: The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weak, with a weakly bearish trend [38] PP - **Fundamental Tracking**: Futures prices, trading volume, open interest, and spot prices had changes. The spot price is loose, and trading is light [41] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 (Neutral) [42] Caustic Soda - **Fundamental Tracking**: Futures and spot prices had specific values. The market in Shandong was stable with some price adjustments [44][45] - **Market Analysis**: The supply pressure is large, and the demand is in the seasonal off - peak, with a short - term range - bound pattern [46] Pulp - **Fundamental Tracking**: Futures prices, trading volume, open interest, and spot prices had changes. The trend intensity is 0 (Neutral) [51] - **Industry News**: The pulp price was stable, with high port inventory and weak demand [52] Glass - **Fundamental Tracking**: Futures prices, trading volume, open interest, and spot prices had changes. The spot price of float glass was stable [55] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 (Neutral) [55] Methanol - **Fundamental Tracking**: Futures prices, trading volume, open interest, and spot prices had changes. The spot price index increased slightly [57][59] - **Market Analysis**: The supply and demand are both decreasing, and it's expected to have a short - term range - bound pattern [59] Urea - **Fundamental Tracking**: Futures prices, trading volume, open interest, and spot prices had changes. The inventory decreased in some areas and increased in others [61][62] - **Industry News**: The domestic inventory decreased, and it's expected to have a short - term range - bound and possibly bearish intraday trend [62][63] Benzene and Styrene - **Fundamental Tracking**: Futures prices and spreads had changes. The spot market of styrene is in a state of high production, high profit, and high inventory [64][65] - **Trend Intensity**: - 1 (Weakly Bearish) [64] Soda Ash - **Fundamental Tracking**: Futures prices, trading volume, open interest, and spot prices had changes. The spot market changed little [68] - **Trend Intensity**: - 1 (Weakly Bearish) [69] LPG - **Fundamental Tracking**: Futures prices, trading volume, open interest, and spot prices had changes. The开工 rates of related industries had fluctuations [73] - **Market News**: There were specific expectations for Saudi CP prices, and many PDH devices had maintenance plans [79][80] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 (Neutral) [78] PVC - **Fundamental Tracking**: Futures prices, spot prices, and spreads had specific values. New devices were put into trial production [81] - **Market Analysis**: It has a high - production and high - inventory structure, with a weakly bearish trend [82] Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fundamental Tracking**: Futures prices, trading volume, open interest, and spot prices had changes. The low - sulfur fuel oil continued to be weak [86] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 (Neutral) [86] Container Shipping Index (European Line) - **Fundamental Tracking**: Futures prices, trading volume, open interest, and freight rates had changes. There were specific information about shipping schedules and capacity [88][91] - **Strategy**: Hold 10 - 12 and 10 - 02 reverse spreads lightly [88]

Group 1 - Andrew Bailey, the Governor of the Bank of England, criticized Donald Trump's trade war, stating it harms global household interests and leads to economic fragmentation [1] - Bailey emphasized the need for countries to cooperate to address unsustainable trade and financial imbalances, particularly between the US and China, which account for nearly 40% of global current account imbalances [1][2] - He argued that unilateral imposition of rules by any single country is not a viable solution for achieving lasting stability in the global economy [1] Group 2 - Bailey pointed out that the US has a current account deficit and a significant budget deficit, supported by capital inflows due to the dollar's reserve currency status [2] - He suggested that a better approach to resolving trade issues is through multilateral institutions like the IMF and WTO to restore balance in trade and finance [2] - Bailey expressed skepticism about the future role of stablecoins and the necessity of a central bank digital currency, indicating a cautious stance on innovations in the banking sector [2]

Group 1 - The U.S. Department of Commerce has initiated two investigations related to drone systems and their components, as well as a national security investigation into polysilicon and its derivatives used in solar panels and semiconductors, potentially paving the way for higher tariffs on these imports [1][2] - The investigations were launched under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act, with results expected within 270 days, and public comments due by August 6 [1] - The investigations may lead to additional tariffs if deemed necessary for national security, following previous actions against imports of steel and aluminum [1][3] Group 2 - The U.S. aims to localize its drone supply chain to a "national security" level, but this may disrupt the global drone supply chain and could lead to inefficiencies in producing high-quality drones domestically [2] - China dominates the market for commercial drones, producing 70% to 80% of the global supply, and holds an 80% market share in polysilicon production [2] - U.S. efforts to impose targeted tariffs and restrictions on Chinese imports reflect a strategic shift in trade policy, focusing on specific sectors rather than broad technology restrictions [3]

Group 1 - The U.S. is threatening to impose a 500% tariff on Chinese goods, which could lead to significant price increases for American consumers, with estimates suggesting an additional $2,000 per household annually and a potential inflation spike of 2.8% [4][5] - The U.S. trade with Russia is minimal, with a projected trade value of only $3.12 billion in 2024, making the proposed 100% tariff largely ineffective [4][5] - Historical precedents indicate that trade wars have no winners, with past tariffs leading to significant declines in U.S. exports and job losses [5] Group 2 - The proposed tariffs could severely impact American consumers, with costs for products like cars and electronics expected to rise dramatically, ultimately burdening the average citizen [7] - Supply chain disruptions are anticipated, as companies like Nike and Tesla may need to adjust production lines, leading to increased labor costs in Southeast Asia [7] - The unilateral approach by the U.S. could undermine WTO rules, with warnings from the WTO Director-General about the potential for a "dark moment" in global trade [7]

Group 1: Global Investor Sentiment - Global investor sentiment has reached its most optimistic level since February 2025, with the increase in profit optimism being the largest since July 2020 [1] - The proportion of cash in investment portfolios has dropped to 3.9%, typically indicating an overbought market and triggering a "sell signal" [1] - Investors have the highest overweight position in Eurozone assets since January 2005, despite viewing trade wars as the biggest potential systemic risk [1] Group 2: U.S. Debt and Fiscal Policy - Deutsche Bank forecasts that U.S. debt interest expenses will increase by approximately $100 billion this year, driven mainly by rising outstanding debt [2] - The passage of the "Inflation Reduction Act" has heightened concerns regarding U.S. fiscal health and debt sustainability [2] - The market expects the U.S. Treasury to rely more on short-term bonds to control interest costs in the short term [2] Group 3: Japanese Economic Policy - RBC indicates that the outcome of the Japanese Senate elections could lead to tax cuts and fiscal stimulus, potentially worsening fiscal conditions and delaying interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan [3] - Japan's 20-year government bond yield has reached a new high of 2.657% since 1999, reflecting rising long-term financing cost pressures [3] Group 4: Asian Currency and Market Dynamics - Barclays notes that low yields on Asian currencies make them less attractive to yield-seeking investors, especially with potential increases in U.S. tariffs [3] - Discussions on de-dollarization are limited by insufficient liquidity and mature domestic markets in many Asian countries [3] Group 5: German Economic Outlook - The ZEW Institute reports that market sentiment is bolstered by hopes for a swift resolution to U.S.-EU tariff disputes and immediate investment stimulus plans from the German government [4] - Despite ongoing global trade conflicts, nearly two-thirds of experts predict an improvement in the German economy [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, precious metals fluctuated with an upward bias. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed up 0.25%, and the main contract of Shanghai Silver closed up 0.52%. It is expected that precious metals will show a pattern of gold being weaker than silver in the short - term, fluctuate at a high level in the medium - term, and rise step - by - step in the long - term [1]. - The core logic is that in the short - term, the trade war has entered a new stage, and there are still risks of economic recession and geopolitical changes. The risk of stagflation in the US economy has increased, and strong employment has suppressed the expectation of interest rate cuts [1]. - For the strategy of both gold and silver, conservative investors are advised to wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [2][6]. 3. Summary by Related Directory Gold - **Core Logic**: Short - term trade war in a new stage, economic recession and geopolitical risks remain; US economic stagflation risk increases, and strong employment suppresses interest rate cut expectations. In terms of the safe - haven attribute, Trump escalated the trade war. Regarding the monetary attribute, Fed officials have different views on interest rate prospects, and strong employment data has reduced the possibility of near - term interest rate cuts. In terms of the commodity attribute, the CRB commodity index rebounds under pressure, and the strong RMB suppresses domestic prices [1]. - **Data**: Comex gold main contract closed at $3352.10 per ounce, down $18.20 (-0.54%) from the previous day and up $5.70 (0.17%) from last week. London gold was at $3351.15 per ounce, down $0.95 (-0.03%) from the previous day and up $35.80 (1.08%) from last week. Shanghai Gold main contract closed at 780.40 yuan per gram, down 1.00 yuan (-0.13%) from the previous day and up 4.18 yuan (0.54%) from last week [2]. - **Net Position Ranking**: Among the top 10 net long positions of Shanghai Gold in futures companies of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the top 5 totaled 100,900.00, an increase of 4,837.00 (24.93%); the top 10 totaled 129,456.00, an increase of 4,908.00 (31.98%); the top 20 totaled 153,715.00, an increase of 7,135.00 (37.98%). Among the top 10 net short positions, the top 5 totaled 12,011.00, a decrease of 69.00 (2.97%); the top 10 totaled 17,864.00, an increase of 73.00 (4.41%); the top 20 totaled 21,371.00, an increase of 1,011.00 (5.28%) [3]. Silver - **Core Logic**: The gold price trend is the anchor for the silver price. In terms of the capital side, CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF have reduced positions again. In terms of inventory, the recent visible inventory of silver has decreased slightly [5]. - **Data**: Comex silver main contract closed at $38.41 per ounce, down $0.67 (-1.70%) from the previous day and up $1.47 (3.98%) from last week. London silver was at $39.00 per ounce, up $1.50 (3.99%) from the previous day and up $2.75 (7.59%) from last week. Shanghai Silver main contract closed at 9225.00 yuan per kilogram, up 18.00 yuan (0.20%) from the previous day and up 272.00 yuan (3.04%) from last week [6]. - **Net Position Ranking**: Among the top 10 net long positions of Shanghai Silver in futures companies of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the top 5 totaled 128,440.00, an increase of 2,145.00 (12.81%); the top 10 totaled 184,237.00, an increase of 295.00 (18.38%); the top 20 totaled 240,513.00, an increase of 1,291.00 (23.99%). Among the top 10 net short positions, the top 5 totaled 55,412.00, a decrease of 157.00 (5.53%); the top 10 totaled 86,681.00, a decrease of 1,753.00 (8.65%); the top 20 totaled 108,867.00, a decrease of 183.00 (10.86%) [7]. Fundamental Key Data - **Monetary Attribute**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 4.50%, the discount rate is 4.50%, the reserve balance interest rate (IORB) is 4.40%. The Fed's total assets are $67132.36 billion. The 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 2.59, up 0.06 (2.37%) from the previous day and up 0.02 (0.78%) from last week. The US dollar index is 98.11, up 0.25 (0.26%) from the previous day and up 0.57 (0.58%) from last week [8]. - **Other Data**: The CPI (year - on - year) is 2.40%, the core CPI (year - on - year) is 2.80%. The unemployment rate is 4.10%. The geopolitical risk index is 122.08, up 70.59 (137.10%) from the previous day and down 22.80 (-15.74%) from last week. The VIX index is 16.84, down 0.36 (-2.09%) from the previous day and up 0.03 (0.18%) from last week [10][11]. - **Fed Interest Rate Expectation**: According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability distribution of the Fed's interest rate in different periods from 2025 to 2026 is provided, showing the changing market expectations for the Fed's interest rate [12].

Core Points - The EU and the US reached a temporary trade agreement in July 2025, but the EU's tariff treatment is less favorable than that of the UK, raising questions about the outcome of the negotiations [1][9][20] - The negotiations were led by Donald Trump, who adopted a hardline approach, reminiscent of his previous presidency, using tariffs as a negotiation tool [1][4][16] - The EU's negotiation process is complicated by the need for consensus among its 27 member states, making it difficult to present a unified front against the US [2][12][15] Trade Relations - The EU and the US are the largest bilateral trading partners, with annual trade in goods and services reaching several hundred billion dollars [4] - The complexity of transatlantic trade is highlighted by the Boeing-Airbus subsidy dispute, which had a temporary resolution in 2021, indicating the intricate nature of their trade relationship [4] Tariff Details - The US proposed a baseline tariff of 10%, but specific sectors like automobiles and steel face much higher tariffs of up to 25% and 50%, respectively [9][10][12] - In contrast, the UK secured a more favorable deal post-Brexit, including a 10% tariff exemption for 100,000 cars and zero tariffs on steel and aluminum [9][13] Internal EU Dynamics - The EU's internal divisions complicate negotiations, with Germany advocating for its automotive industry while France insists on agricultural protections [12][15] - The EU's decision-making process requires unanimous agreement, which slows down negotiations and allows the US to exert pressure [2][12][15] Political Implications - The agreement has sparked internal dissent within the EU, particularly among member states like Germany and Italy, who fear the impact of higher tariffs on their economies [15][18] - Trump's success in negotiating this agreement may bolster his political capital, while EU officials face scrutiny and criticism for their handling of the negotiations [18][20] Long-term Considerations - The outcome of this trade agreement highlights the need for the EU to strengthen internal cohesion and seek diverse trade partnerships to reduce reliance on the US market [16][20] - The high tariffs imposed may prompt the EU to reform its internal market to enhance competitiveness and address member states' concerns [16][20]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the impact of Trump's announcement on tariffs, which has led to fluctuations in gold prices and increased market volatility [1][3] - Gold prices experienced a significant rise, reaching a three-week high of $3374.78 per ounce before retreating to $3343.31 per ounce, reflecting a daily decline of approximately 0.4% [1] - The announcement of a 30% tariff on EU and Mexican imports has intensified global trade tensions, prompting a surge in safe-haven investments in gold [3] Group 2 - Despite a short-term pullback in gold prices, the overall market sentiment remains bullish due to ongoing risk aversion [4] - The strong rebound of the US dollar index, which rose by 0.25% to a near three-week high of 98.14, has exerted downward pressure on gold prices [4] - Rising US Treasury yields, with the 30-year yield approaching 5% and the 10-year yield reaching 4.447%, have increased the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold assets [4]

Group 1 - The potential implementation of a 30% tariff on European goods by the U.S. could significantly disrupt the transatlantic trade system and force Europe to reconsider its export-oriented economic model [1] - European officials are optimistic about reaching an agreement to maintain the $1.7 trillion bilateral trade relationship before the August 1 deadline, despite the uncertainty surrounding Trump's stance on the EU [1][2] - The European Commission's trade chief warned that a 30% tariff would effectively act as a trade ban, jeopardizing the established trade relations [1] Group 2 - Barclays economists estimate that an average 35% tariff on EU goods, combined with a 10% countermeasure from Brussels, could shrink Eurozone output by 0.7 percentage points [2] - The potential economic impact could lead the European Central Bank to lower its deposit rate further, possibly down to 1% by March 2026, as inflation may remain below the 2% target for an extended period [3] - The German Economic Institute estimates that tariffs of 20%-50% could result in over €200 billion in losses for Germany's economy by 2028, affecting the government's economic policy efforts [3] Group 3 - The long-term implications of tariffs raise concerns about how Europe will compensate for economic activity losses to sustain tax revenue and employment, which are crucial for various ambitions, including pension and military reforms [3][4] - Despite efforts to diversify trade partnerships, the EU faces challenges in establishing new markets, as highlighted by the prolonged negotiations for the EU-Mercosur trade agreement [3][5] - Observers suggest that the confrontation with Trump may provide an opportunity for the EU to push through long-delayed single market reforms and reduce reliance on exports, which account for a significant portion of its output [4]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing trade war remains the largest "tail risk" for investors, according to Bank of America [1] Group 1: Trade War Impact - The trade war has significant implications for global markets and investor sentiment, potentially leading to increased volatility [1] - Investors are advised to closely monitor developments in trade policies as they could affect economic growth and corporate earnings [1] Group 2: Investor Sentiment - The uncertainty surrounding the trade war is causing a cautious approach among investors, impacting their investment strategies [1] - Bank of America highlights that the trade conflict could lead to a reassessment of risk across various asset classes [1]