炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：金十数据 造成这一现象的原因很直接：一方面是金价居高不下；另一方面，随着金价飙升，各国现有黄金储备的 市值自然膨胀，为了维持资产配置比例，官方进一步增持的意愿受到抑制。 ETF与实物金条遭抢筹 与官方的谨慎形成鲜明对比，民间投资需求呈现爆发式增长。受交易所交易基金（ETF）巨额资金流入 以及金条需求攀升的推动，去年全球黄金投资需求激增84%，达到2175吨。 "市场的最大亮点无疑是投资需求。而那个'暗点'——或者说让人始料未及之处——在于央行需求的降 温，"世界黄金协会市场策略师John Reade分析道，"但我们看到，投资端的狂热完全掩盖了央行买盘的 疲软。" Reade进一步预测，今年央行的购金量可能会比去年再减少200至250吨，尽管这一预测仍存在较大的不 确定性。 金价的表现令人咋舌。继去年飙升超60%后，今年金价已进一步上涨逾20%，本周更是逼近每盎司5600 美元关口。 支撑这一史诗级行情的宏观背景错综复杂：格陵兰岛和伊朗的地缘政治紧张局势，以及市场对各国政府 债务水平失控的担忧，共同成为了金价的助推剂。 资金流向印证 ...

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices have recently broken multiple significant levels, reaching new highs, indicating a peak in market enthusiasm for precious metals [1][2]. Group 1: Current Gold Prices - As of January 29, 2023, spot gold is priced at $5586.47 per ounce, with a daily increase of 3.11%, and a peak of $5598.75 per ounce [1]. - COMEX gold futures are reported at $5583.3 per ounce, rising by 4.55%, with a maximum of $5626.8 per ounce [1]. - Year-to-date, spot gold and COMEX gold futures have increased by 29.37% and 28.88%, respectively [1]. Group 2: Factors Driving Gold Price Increase - The weakening of the dollar's credit anchor and the global trend of "de-dollarization" are driving long-term demand for gold as central banks increase their gold reserves [2]. - Geopolitical risks are escalating, leading to a surge in demand for safe-haven assets [2]. - The shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy towards easing and the decline in real interest rates are enhancing gold's intrinsic value [2]. - A technical weakening of the dollar index is providing exchange rate support for gold priced in dollars [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Gold prices are expected to maintain a strong upward trend through 2026, although volatility is anticipated to increase significantly [3]. - The ongoing weakening of dollar credit and the long-term nature of geopolitical conflicts are expected to support gold's transition from a "safe-haven tool" to a "strategic asset" [3]. - Central banks are likely to continue strategic gold purchases, and major global central banks, including the Federal Reserve, are expected to maintain an accommodative stance [3]. - Current gold prices may have partially priced in optimistic expectations, leading to potential profit-taking pressures [3].

Group 1 - The market is currently experiencing a "performance verification period," shifting from a liquidity-driven valuation expansion to a focus on companies with real profits and orders [3] - The external environment is changing, with the Federal Reserve's interest rate path stabilizing, making RMB assets an attractive option for global diversification [4] - Long-term industry trends, such as AI development, global technology cycles, and domestic supply-side optimization policies, are forming a solid foundation for the market's mid-term outlook [4] Group 2 - The recommended asset allocation focuses on technology and cyclical sectors, with technology being driven by the ongoing global AI trend and its transition from training to real-world applications [5] - In the cyclical sector, there is a suggestion to consider non-ferrous metals and securities, with expectations of price increases driven by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and improving fundamentals [5][6] - Three reinforcing logics include the rigid supply of key resources, rising macro hedging demand for precious metals, and the strategic importance of resource security in national policy [6][7][8] Group 3 - For balanced asset allocation, broad-based indices like the CSI A500 and the Growth Enterprise Market Index are recommended, along with defensive assets suitable for long-term holdings [9]

FICC日报 | 2026-01-29 美联储如期按兵不动，关注伊朗局势 市场分析 通胀叙事大趋势不改。12月11日中央经济工作会议召开：会议强调，深入实施提振消费专项行动；强调深入整治"内 卷式"竞争制定和实施；会议确认，把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量。后续继续提振 消费，以及推进"反内卷"的大方向并未发生变化，未来物价回升路径仍需关注供给侧的政策方向。1月15日，央行 宣布下调各类结构性货币政策工具利率0.25个百分点，各类再贷款一年期利率降至1.25%，其他期限档次利率同步 调整。并强调，今年降准降息还有一定空间，人民币汇率预计将继续双向浮动，保持弹性。1 月 20 日，财政部官 网集中发布 5 个重要政策文件，涵盖个人消费贷款、设备更新、中小微企业贷款、服务业经营主体贷款及民间投 资专项担保五大领域，以 "延长期限、扩大范围、提高标准" 为核心导向，通过财政贴息与担保支持，降低融资成 本、激发市场活力，助力扩大内需与经济高质量发展。此外，伊朗和委内瑞拉的地缘局势骤紧，在民粹主义和贸 易保护主义思潮下，全球争夺矿产和能源资源的局势明朗。同时，特朗普近期就格陵兰岛一系列事件使得美国 ...

摘要今日周四(1月29日)亚盘时段，国际黄金最新报价为1241.97元/克，较前一交易日上涨32.41元，涨幅 2.68%，日内呈现高位震荡走势。当日开盘价报1209.49元/克，盘中最高触及1248.89元/克，最低下探至 1209.25元/克。 今日周四(1月29日)亚盘时段，国际黄金最新报价为1241.97元/克，较前一交易日上涨32.41元，涨幅 2.68%，日内呈现高位震荡走势。当日开盘价报1209.49元/克，盘中最高触及1248.89元/克，最低下探至 1209.25元/克。 【要闻速递】 "美联储传声筒"指出，自去年夏天以来，美联储主席鲍威尔已第四次在新闻发布会上拒绝透露5月15日 主席任期结束后是否留任理事会，仅反复强调"不想谈论这个问题"。 对特朗普而言，鲍威尔明确离职是关键：若其5月15日离任，特朗普将获得第二个理事席位，可同时提 名新主席及填补空缺，锁定理想委员会构成;若留任，新主席需占据仅有的米兰席位(任期届满)，米兰将 出局，且无其他空缺(最高法院驳回罢免理事库克的请求)。 历史上，仅前主席埃克尔斯(1934-1948)卸任后留任理事(应杜鲁门要求)，格林斯潘也曾因热爱工作可能 留 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall rating for commodities and stock index futures is neutral [6] Core Viewpoints - The inflation narrative trend remains unchanged, and future price recovery paths depend on supply - side policy directions [2] - There is a certain divergence in domestic and overseas economic outlooks. Overseas economic prosperity has declined since October, while China's exports and new orders are still positive [4] - In the short - term, attention should be paid to the rotation possibility of low - valuation sectors in the commodity market [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized boosting consumption and anti - "involution" competition, and the central bank cut the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools by 0.25 percentage points on January 15th [2] - The Ministry of Finance released 5 important policy documents on January 20th to support multiple loan fields, aiming to expand domestic demand [2] - Geopolitical tensions between Iran and Venezuela have tightened, and Trump's actions have strained US - European relations, accelerating the global de - dollarization trend [2] - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) adjusted the margin parameters of some silver, platinum and palladium futures contracts on the 27th [2] - On January 28th, the Fed kept the federal funds rate target range at 3.50% - 3.75%, with two members opposing and preferring a 25 - point rate cut [3] - After the Fed's decision, the US dollar index rose and spot gold reached $5500 per ounce [3] - The US Treasury Secretary said that Trump's candidate for Fed Chairman may be announced in about a week [3] Domestic and Overseas Economic Conditions - Since October, overseas economic prosperity has declined, but China's exports and new orders are positive. In December, China's exports denominated in US dollars increased by 6.6% year - on - year, and imports increased by 5.7% [4] - China's GDP growth target of 5% in 2025 was achieved. In December, the year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales slowed to 0.9%, and the industrial added value of large - scale industries increased by 5.2%. The annual fixed - asset investment decreased by 3.8%, and real estate development investment decreased by 17.2% [4] - China's official manufacturing PMI in December was 50.1, returning to the expansion range, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.2, both better than expected. The US ISM manufacturing index in December dropped slightly to 47.9, and the European manufacturing PMI in January slightly exceeded expectations [4] - The Bank of Japan kept interest rates unchanged, with one member supporting a rate increase. The US Treasury Secretary affirmed the strong - dollar policy and denied intervention in the yen exchange rate [4] Commodity Market - In the non - ferrous sector, the long - term supply restriction has not been alleviated, but the short - term upward trend may slow down [5] - In the energy sector, the US will "distribute" Venezuelan oil, Trump hopes to lower oil prices to $50 per barrel, and the US Energy Secretary called for doubling global crude oil production [5] - In the chemical industry sector, the "anti - involution" and stock - commodity linkage space of methanol, PTA and other varieties are worthy of attention [5] - In the agricultural products sector, attention should be paid to weather forecasts and short - term pig diseases [5] - In the black metal sector, attention should be paid to domestic policy expectations and the possibility of low - valuation repair [5] - In the precious metals sector, the accelerating de - dollarization trend has opened up room for the rise of gold [5] Strategy - The strategy for commodities and stock index futures is overall neutral [6] Important News - The Shanghai Gold Exchange adjusted the margin level and price limit ratio of the silver deferred contract on January 30th [7] - Trump downplayed the risk of US dollar depreciation, and the euro - US dollar exchange rate broke through 1.20 [7] - On January 28th, Iran expressed its willingness to negotiate but would defend its interests if pressured. Trump sent a fleet to Iran and threatened more severe strikes [7] - Iran's Supreme Leader's defense advisor warned that any US military action would lead to an immediate, comprehensive and unprecedented response from Iran [7] - The Fed's FOMC interest rate decision was in line with expectations, and Fed Chairman Powell suggested that the next Fed Chairman should be separated from politics [7] - US Treasury Secretary Besent discussed multiple topics, including the Fed Chairman candidate, monetary policy, exchange rate and the S&P 500 index breakthrough [7]

2 2019 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 贵金属数据日报 | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号:Z0013700 | | | 2026/1/29 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 贵金属与新能源研究中心 白素娜 | | 从业资格号:F3023916 | | | | | 内外盘金 | 日期 | 伦敦金现 | 伦敦银现 | COMEX黄金 | COMEX白银 | AU2602 | AG2602 | AU (T+D) | AG (T+D) | | 银15点价 | | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | | 格跟踪 | 2026/1/28 | 5264. 93 | 114. 87 | 5258.00 | 114. 88 | 1189.88 | 29031.00 | 1180. 50 | 29300.00 | | (本表数 | | | | | | ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices is driven by geopolitical uncertainties, leading to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3][4]. Group 1: Gold ETF Performance - The Bosera Gold ETF (159937) has risen by 5.63%, marking five consecutive days of gains, with the latest price at 11.89 yuan [3]. - Over the past week, the Bosera Gold ETF has accumulated an 8.62% increase [3]. - The ETF's trading volume reached 25.17 billion yuan, with a turnover rate of 4.39% [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Geopolitical tensions and trade disputes have heightened market fears, causing a shift in investor preference away from risk assets [3]. - The World Gold Council has indicated that gold is currently the preferred safe-haven asset, with a sustained risk premium supporting higher gold prices [3]. - Experts suggest that the trend of "de-dollarization" has solidified a bullish outlook for gold [3]. Group 3: Central Bank Actions - The expectation of continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, along with increasing geopolitical tensions and weakening dollar credibility, is expected to boost safe-haven demand [4]. - Global central banks are increasing their gold reserves as a substitute for foreign exchange reserves, which, combined with a recovery in gold ETF inflows, will provide strong support for gold prices [4]. Group 4: Fund Inflows - The Bosera Gold ETF has reached a new high of 4.826 billion shares, the highest in nearly a year [4]. - Over the past 12 days, the ETF has seen continuous net inflows, with a peak single-day net inflow of 770 million yuan, totaling 4.193 billion yuan in net inflows [4].

Group 1 - COMEX gold prices have surpassed $5,600, with spot gold exceeding $5,500, marking a historical high for nine consecutive days [1] - The launch of the only gold mining ETF in Hong Kong, E Fund Gold Mining (2824.HK), is set for January 30, providing investors with a tool to invest in leading global gold mining companies [1] - The Federal Reserve Chairman indicated that inflation is primarily driven by tariffs rather than demand factors, leading to a rapid increase in spot gold prices after the announcement [1] Group 2 - CITIC Securities highlights that gold prices have been reaching historical highs since 2025, influenced by factors such as de-dollarization, Federal Reserve independence, central bank gold purchases, U.S. tariffs, geopolitical conflicts, and inflation expectations [2] - Looking ahead to 2026, the allocation of gold as an alternative currency is expected to rise due to the restructuring of the global financial order and ongoing volatility in financial markets [2] - E Fund Gold Mining (2824.HK) focuses on the four major gold production regions and selects 30 leading gold mining stocks, including significant holdings in Zijin Mining and Zhaojin Mining, while also covering major overseas companies like Newmont and Barrick Gold [2]

Group 1: Forex Market Overview - The forex market transaction volume steadily increased in 2025, with a total turnover of 48.52 trillion USD and an average daily turnover of 199.66 billion USD, marking a historical high and a year-on-year growth of 6.54% [2] - The average daily turnover in the RMB forex market reached 148.75 billion USD, with significant growth in trading volumes for foreign currencies and foreign currency interest rate markets, increasing by 27.58% and 17.28% year-on-year, respectively [2] Group 2: RMB Exchange Rate Dynamics - The RMB to USD exchange rate experienced fluctuations, ultimately strengthening, with the year-end rate at 6.9890, appreciating by 4.43% compared to the previous year, while the CFETS RMB exchange rate index ended at 97.99, down 3.43% for the year [3][5] - The RMB exchange rate faced pressure in April due to heightened trade tensions and tariffs, but rebounded later in the year as trade negotiations eased and domestic economic policies improved, leading to a significant appreciation of over 1,000 basis points by year-end [4][5] Group 3: Swap Curve and Interest Rate Dynamics - The swap curve for RMB significantly rose, with the 1Y swap point reaching a new high, influenced by narrowing interest rate differentials between China and the US, which correlated highly with the 10-year US Treasury yield [6][7] - The 1Y swap point deviated from the interest rate parity theory, showing a positive correlation with the appreciation expectations of the RMB, with the average deviation being approximately 49 basis points, marking the first positive deviation since 2023 [7] Group 4: Offshore RMB Liquidity and Market Structure - Offshore RMB liquidity remained tight, with the People's Bank of China issuing a record 300 billion RMB in offshore central bank bills, maintaining a stable yet slightly tight liquidity environment [8] - The interest rate market for foreign currencies showed overall easing, with the domestic USD borrowing rates remaining low, while the spread between domestic and foreign rates widened, reaching a three-year low of -40 basis points by year-end [9]