2026.01.26 本文字数：1842，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 |第一财经齐琦 金银价格继续"狂飙"。 1月26日，伦敦现货黄金冲破5000美元/盎司，最高触及5093美元，距5100美元/盎司仅一步之遥，距离 其首次突破4000美元关口仅过去100多天。伦敦现货白银更是一举升破109美元/盎司，再度创下历史新 高。 国内市场，黄金概念股1月26日开盘冲高，湖南黄金（002155.SZ）、四川黄金（001337.SZ）、招金黄 金（000506.SZ）、湖南白银（002716.SZ）等纷纷涨停。 南华期货贵金属新能源研究组负责人夏莹莹对第一财经分析称，黄金强势突破5000关口，是短期避险需 求、中期政策预期、长期货币信用重构三重逻辑共振的结果。预计2026年金价或有望挑战6000美元关 口。当前金价处于高价位、高波动阶段，投资者需做好仓位控制。 宏观面上，刘庭宇进一步分析称，12月美国非农就业人数低于预期的同时失业率也低于预期，虽然就 业、ISM制造业PMI和消费数据仍显疲软，但1月降息概率接近0，市场预期2026年有50BP降息空间。 长期看，随着美联储独立性弱化、内部政策分歧持续加剧，叠加赤字率上行不 ...

2026.01. 26 金银价格继续"狂飙"。 1月26日，伦敦现货黄金冲破5000美元/盎司，最高触及5093美元，距5100美元/盎司仅一步之遥，距离其首 次突破4000美元关口仅过去100多天。伦敦现货白银更是一举升破109美元/盎司，再度创下历史新高。 国内市场，黄金概念股1月26日开盘冲高，湖南黄金（002155.SZ）、四川黄金（001337.SZ）、招金黄金 （000506.SZ）、湖南白银（002716.SZ）等纷纷涨停。 南华期货贵金属新能源研究组负责人夏莹莹对第一财经分析称，黄金强势突破5000关口，是短期避险需求、 中期政策预期、长期货币信用重构三重逻辑共振的结果。预计2026年金价或有望挑战6000美元关口。当前 金价处于高价位、高波动阶段，投资者需做好仓位控制。 避险情绪持续升温，金银齐创新高 全球地缘不确定性加剧，贵金属价格也在多重利好支撑下继续上涨。 Wind数据显示，截至北京时间1月26日12：00，伦敦现货黄金报5076.53美元/盎司，最高触及5093.19美元/ 盎司；COMEX黄金期货同步走强，报5076.2美元/盎司，最高至5091.5美元/盎司。 本文字数：1842 ...

来源：环球网 【环球网消费综合报道】1月26日，贵金属市场迎来高光时刻，黄金概念股全线爆发，成为资本市场关 注的焦点。受现货黄金价格强势突破5000美元并持续走高的提振，A股黄金板块个股表现抢眼，湖南黄 金、盛达资源、福达合金、豫光金铅均以"一字"涨停开盘，中国黄金、恒邦股份、四川黄金、招金黄金 等近十只个股亦强势封死涨停板，晓程科技、铜陵有色、西部黄金、曼卡龙等多股强势跟涨。期货市场 同步走强，沪金主力合约早盘大涨3.73%，盘中亦刷新历史高点。 消息面上，国际金价势如破竹，现货黄金早盘涨幅扩大至近2%，最高触及5093.15美元/盎司，距离5100 美元仅一步之遥。上周美元指数大跌近2%，创下半年来最差周表现，与此形成鲜明对比的是，黄金单 周上涨8.4%。市场分析人士指出，多重宏观与避险因素共同助推了金价迭创新高。市场对美元资产避 险属性的担忧促使欧洲、印度等多地基金加速减持美债，并推进资产多元化配置。丹麦最大的养老基金 之一AkademikerPension也出于对财政纪律、美元走弱以及地缘紧张局势等一系列问题的担忧，宣布退 出其持有的1亿美元美债头寸。 在金价持续走牛的背景下，资本市场资金动向也备受关 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a significant surge in resource and energy stocks in the A-share market, with companies like Zijin Mining and China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) reaching historical highs in stock prices and market capitalization exceeding 1 trillion yuan [1] - The spot gold price has surpassed $5,000 per ounce for the first time, reaching $5,075.06 per ounce, driven by multiple factors including central bank gold purchases, expectations of U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, geopolitical risks, and trends towards de-dollarization [1][2] - Central banks globally, including those in China, India, Turkey, and Poland, are accelerating their gold reserves, with China's gold reserves reaching 74.15 million ounces as of December 2025, marking 14 consecutive months of increases [1][2] Group 2 - The World Gold Council reported that as of November 2025, the total official gold reserves of the U.S. exceeded 900 million troy ounces, valued at $3.93 trillion, surpassing U.S. Treasury bonds as the largest reserve asset for the first time in 30 years [2] - Goldman Sachs predicts that global central banks will net purchase approximately 60 tons of gold monthly in 2026, potentially leading to a record annual gold buying volume [2] - The rise in gold prices is attributed to three long-term structural factors: ongoing large-scale gold purchases by central banks, expectations of monetary easing in major economies, and increased demand for gold from the private sector for hedging and asset allocation [2] Group 3 - Zijin Mining has forecasted a net profit of 51 to 52 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 59% to 62%, driven by increased production and rising sales prices of gold, copper, and silver [3] - The oil and gas sector also showed strong performance, with companies like Tongyuan Petroleum and CNOOC experiencing significant stock price increases due to tight energy supply caused by a winter storm in the U.S., which pushed natural gas futures above $6 per million British thermal units [3] - The rising stock prices of resource sector leaders reflect both the transmission effect of international market price changes and investor recognition of their long-term resource endowment, operational efficiency, and sustainable development capabilities [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights that the weakening of the US dollar has positively impacted the entire metal market, leading to record high prices for both silver and gold in early trading sessions [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The current bullish scenario for precious metals is supported by strong reserve demand and ongoing market participants' pursuit of de-dollarization [1] - Industrial demand is also contributing positively to silver prices [1] Group 2: Analyst Insights - Michael Brown from Pepperstone notes that while there has been significant price appreciation in a short period, a period of consolidation would not be detrimental [1] - The medium-term outlook suggests that the "path of least resistance" remains upward for precious metals [1]

国内市场，黄金概念股1月26日开盘冲高，湖南黄金（002155.SZ）、四川黄金（001337.SZ）、招金黄 金（000506.SZ）、湖南白银（002716.SZ）等纷纷涨停。 南华期货贵金属新能源研究组负责人夏莹莹对第一财经分析称，黄金强势突破5000关口，是短期避险需 求、中期政策预期、长期货币信用重构三重逻辑共振的结果。预计2026年金价或有望挑战6000美元关 口。当前金价处于高价位、高波动阶段，投资者需做好仓位控制。 金银价格继续"狂飙"。 避险情绪持续升温，金银齐创新高 1月26日，伦敦现货黄金冲破5000美元/盎司，最高触及5093美元，距5100美元/盎司仅一步之遥，距离 其首次突破4000美元关口仅过去100多天。伦敦现货白银更是一举升破109美元/盎司，再度创下历史新 高。 全球地缘不确定性加剧，贵金属价格也在多重利好支撑下继续上涨。 Wind数据显示，截至北京时间1月26日12：00，伦敦现货黄金报5076.53美元/盎司，最高触及5093.19美 元/盎司；COMEX黄金期货同步走强，报5076.2美元/盎司，最高至5091.5美元/盎司。 白银方面，伦敦现货白银报108.248美 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform" [1] Core Views - The gold market is experiencing a "no-defeat time" as the narrative of de-dollarization continues to advance, with geopolitical risks becoming a recurring theme throughout the year [2][11] - Lithium prices are on the rise, driven by increased demand and a supply shortage, indicating a strong upward trend in the lithium mining sector [3][12] Summary by Sections Weekly Research Insights - Gold prices are expected to remain strong due to geopolitical tensions and the potential appointment of a dovish Federal Reserve chair [11] - The lithium sector is seeing a significant increase in prices and demand, with a current average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate at 171,000 CNY/ton [12] Sector Performance - The non-ferrous metals index increased by 5.97%, outperforming the market by 5.14%, ranking 4th among 30 sub-industries [13] - The top-performing segments include gold, lead, and zinc, with respective increases of 16.40%, 15.39%, and 14.48% [13] Metal Prices and Inventory - Lithium prices have surged, with industrial-grade lithium carbonate up by 8.41% to 167,500 CNY/ton and battery-grade up by 8.23% to 171,000 CNY/ton [23][25] - Gold prices increased by 8.4% to 4,980 USD/ounce, while silver prices rose by 14.5% to 101.33 USD/ounce [45]

1月26日，现货黄金价格达到历史性高位，首次突破5000美元/盎司。面对外部冲击与政策调整预期，接下来金价是否还会强势上行？美元走向会发生什么 变化，人民币汇率将在何处找到稳定锚点？本期"视界"，小管邀请复旦大学管理学院财务与金融学系李达三讲席教授李隽业展望2026年中国金融市场走 向。 委内瑞拉政局动荡、俄乌冲突依旧胶着、中美经贸摩擦持续博弈……回望2025年，全球政治经济舞台出现了更多不可预测的风险点。与此同时，避险资产 需求明显抬升，黄金价格持续攀升，货币与资本流向也在地缘政治与宏观政策的双重作用下频繁波动。 复旦管院金融与财务学系李达三讲席教授 研究方向：实证资产定价，衍生产品定价，金融计量，金融数据分析 例如，2022年俄罗斯对乌克兰发起军事行动后，美国及其盟友对俄罗斯实施了一系列制裁，包括剔除出环球银行金融电信协会（SWIFT），冻结俄罗斯央 行约3000亿美元外汇储备，明确禁止俄罗斯进行黄金与美元的互换交易，禁止任何实体接收俄罗斯以美元计价的主权债券利息付款等。这些制裁举措充分 展现了美元的"武器化"程度，所蕴含的战略影响也极为深远。它向其他国家，尤其是中国这样的全球经济大国，传递了一个明确信号 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the monetary policy is expected to remain loose. The market has different trends and outlooks for various commodities and financial products. For example, the bond futures are expected to face pressure, the stock index is expected to have a gradually rising central fluctuation range, and the precious metals market is expected to have significant volatility [6][9][13] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Treasury Bonds - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, treasury bond futures closed up across the board, with the 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts rising 0.07%, 0.03%, 0.04%, and 0.01% respectively. The central bank carried out 125 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 38.3 billion yuan [5] - **Outlook**: The macro - economic recovery momentum is weak, and the bond futures are expected to face pressure. It is recommended to remain cautious [6] Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed trends. The main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures changed by - 0.15%, - 0.66%, 3.36%, and 3.06% respectively [8] - **Outlook**: Although the domestic economic recovery momentum is weak, the low valuation and economic resilience, along with the inflow of incremental funds, are expected to drive the central fluctuation range of the stock index to gradually rise. It is recommended to hold previous long positions [9] Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the gold and silver main contracts rose 2.58% and 6.97% respectively. Eurozone and US PMI data were released [11] - **Outlook**: The global trade and financial environment is complex, and the "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends are beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. However, due to the recent sharp rise and increased speculation, the market volatility is expected to increase significantly. It is recommended to exit long positions and wait and see [13] Steel Products Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures showed weak oscillations. The spot prices of billets, rebar, and hot - rolled coils in different regions were given [15] - **Outlook**: In the medium term, the prices of finished products are dominated by industrial supply - demand logic. Rebar demand is in a downward trend, and the market is entering a demand off - season. The supply pressure has eased, and inventory consumption is fast. The prices are likely to continue weak oscillations, and investors can pay attention to opportunities to go long on pullbacks and manage positions carefully [15] Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, iron ore futures rose slightly. The spot prices of PB powder and Super Special powder were given. National pig iron daily output is low, and port inventory is rising [17] - **Outlook**: The supply - demand pattern of the iron ore market has weakened, but there are signs of stabilization in futures. Investors can pay attention to opportunities to go long on pullbacks and manage positions carefully [17] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures rebounded significantly. The production of domestic coking coal is stable, and the demand for coke is weak [20] - **Outlook**: From a technical perspective, coking coal and coke futures may stop falling and rebound. Investors can pay attention to low - level buying opportunities and manage positions carefully [20] Ferroalloys - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the manganese silicon and silicon iron main contracts rose 1.00% each. The spot prices of manganese silicon and silicon iron in different regions changed. The supply and demand of ferroalloys are in a certain situation, and the cost fluctuates slightly [22] - **Outlook**: Since the fourth quarter of 2025, the production of ferroalloys has declined, and the overall over - supply pressure persists. The cost is at a low level, and there is support for the low - level range. After a decline, investors can consider long positions in the low - level range [23] Energy Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, INE crude oil bottomed out and rebounded. Relevant data showed that speculators increased their net long positions in US crude oil futures and options, and the number of active oil and gas rigs increased. The US imposed new sanctions on Iran [24] - **Outlook**: CFTC data shows that US funds are still bullish on crude oil. The new US sanctions on Iran have pushed up crude oil prices. It is recommended to pay attention to long - position opportunities in the main crude oil contract [25] Fuel Oil - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, fuel oil rose significantly and stood above the moving average group. The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil inter - month inverse spread widened, and the crack spread continued to rise [27] - **Outlook**: It is recommended to pay attention to long - position opportunities in the main fuel oil contract [28] Chemical Products Polyolefins - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the PP market in Hangzhou showed higher quotes, and the LLDPE price in Yuyao rose. The market has a strong desire to test higher prices, but demand follow - up is insufficient [29] - **Outlook**: The polyolefin market will face a supply - demand tight situation this week, and prices may continue to rise in the short term due to factors such as rising crude oil prices and some production line overhauls. It is recommended to pay attention to long - position opportunities [29] Synthetic Rubber - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the synthetic rubber main contract rose 6.99%. Last week, the market rose, mainly supported by rising butadiene prices and high device operating rates, but limited by weak downstream demand. The inventory is accumulating [31] - **Outlook**: It is expected to show a strong oscillation, and it is necessary to pay attention to the price trend of butadiene, the recovery of downstream demand, and whether the device overhauls in January will be implemented [32] Natural Rubber - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the natural rubber main contract and 20 - rubber main contract rose 3.29% and 3.27% respectively. The Shanghai spot price increased, and the basis was stable [34] - **Outlook**: It is expected to show a wide - range oscillation in the short term. The supply is shrinking, the cost support is still there, the demand of tire enterprises is expected to be weak, and the inventory is accumulating [34] PVC - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the PVC main contract rose 2.82%. The spot price increased, and the basis was stable. The current is the traditional off - season for PVC demand [36] - **Outlook**: Although it is in the traditional off - season, the policy expectation may lead to a strong oscillation in the short - term. In the medium - term, capacity clearance and export growth may improve the supply - demand situation. It is necessary to be vigilant about the uncertainty of demand [36] Urea - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the urea main contract rose 0.39%. The price in Shandong Linyi increased, and the basis was stable [40] - **Outlook**: The short - term urea price will maintain a strong oscillation, mainly driven by export demand and cost support. The supply is increasing, the demand of downstream products has different changes, and the inventory situation is given [40] PX - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the PX2603 main contract rose 2.93%. The PXN spread and PX - MX spread are at a certain level, and the PX load has declined [42] - **Outlook**: In the short - term, the PXN spread and short - process profit are stable, the PX start - up rate is increasing, and the market sentiment and cost - end crude oil may provide support. It is expected to oscillate and adjust. It is recommended to participate in the low - level range and be vigilant about the fluctuation of external crude oil [43] PTA - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the PTA2605 main contract rose 4.21%. The PTA device load is stable, the polyester load has decreased, and the processing fee has increased [44] - **Outlook**: In the short - term, the PTA processing fee has adjusted to the average level of previous years, and the upward space may be limited. The inventory is still low, the supply - end changes are small, the demand - end has a seasonal decline, but the cost - end and market sentiment boost the market. It is expected to oscillate, and it is necessary to operate carefully and pay attention to oil price changes [44] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the ethylene glycol main contract increased in volume and rose 5.99%, mainly driven by device production cuts and market sentiment. The overall and synthetic - gas - based ethylene glycol operating loads have decreased, and some devices have plans for production cuts or shutdowns [45] - **Outlook**: In the short - term, the supply - end of ethylene glycol has shrunk due to increased domestic and foreign device overhauls, and the market sentiment has been boosted. However, the port inventory still has pressure, and the pre - arrival volume at ports has increased significantly. There is obvious seasonal inventory accumulation pressure in January and February, and it may gradually enter the de - inventory channel in March. The upward space in the short - term may be limited. It is recommended to operate carefully and pay attention to port inventory and supply changes [46] Short - Fiber - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the short - fiber 2603 main contract rose 3.45%. The short - fiber device load has increased slightly, the downstream terminal start - up rate has decreased locally, and the factory's raw material inventory has increased [47] - **Outlook**: In the short - term, the short - fiber supply remains at a relatively high level, the sales of polyester short - fiber have improved, the terminal factory is mainly digesting raw material inventory, and the low inventory may provide bottom support. It is mainly trading based on the cost - end logic and may oscillate with raw material prices. It is necessary to control risks and pay attention to cost changes and downstream pre - holiday inventory stocking [47] Bottle - Chip - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the bottle - chip 2603 main contract rose 4.4%. The bottle - chip processing fee has recovered, the factory load has decreased slightly, and there are plans for concentrated production cuts and restarts around the Spring Festival [48] - **Outlook**: Recently, the bottle - chip load has decreased slightly, and there are expectations of supply reduction around the Spring Festival. The export growth rate has increased, but the main logic is still on the cost - end. It is expected to oscillate with the cost - end. It is recommended to participate cautiously at low levels and pay attention to the implementation of overhaul devices [48] Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the main 2605 contract closed at 1198 yuan/ton, rising 2.04%. The production has decreased slightly, the inventory is still accumulating, the equipment operation is increasing, the downstream demand is general, and the price is relatively stable [49] - **Outlook**: The off - season characteristics are significant. The short - term market lacks substantial support, and the price is expected to adjust steadily. It is recommended to be cautious [51] Glass - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the main 2605 contract closed at 1064 yuan/ton, rising 1.33%. The number of production lines remains unchanged, the inventory is increasing, the trader's inventory is also increasing, the enterprise's shipment has slowed down, and the downstream demand is shrinking [52] - **Outlook**: The market sentiment is calm, the industry profit is low, the downward space is limited. It may rise due to a technical rebound in the short - term, but it is necessary to pay attention to the risk of returning to the fundamentals. It is expected to oscillate before the Spring Festival [52] Caustic Soda - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the main 2603 contract closed at 1945 yuan/ton, rising 0.15%. In winter, the supply is sufficient, the inventory is accumulating, the demand is weak, and the transportation in the north is affected by cold weather [53] - **Outlook**: The seasonal characteristics are significant. The pre - holiday trading sentiment may fluctuate due to the price fluctuation of alumina, but considering that the fundamentals of the middle and lower reaches have not improved significantly, it is recommended to be cautious [54] Pulp - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the main 2605 contract closed at 5398 yuan/ton, rising 0.78%. The inventory is accumulating, the spot trading is light, and the prices of various types of pulp have declined to varying degrees [55] - **Outlook**: The downstream market's inventory stocking is approaching the end, and the port inventory is continuously accumulating. The market sentiment is pessimistic. Although the disk has a short - term technical rebound, it is necessary to treat it rationally [56] Carbonate Lithium - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the carbonate lithium main contract rose 7.31% to 181,520 yuan/ton. The macro - liquidity release has pushed up the commodity pricing center [57] - **Outlook**: The supply of lithium resources is elastic, the production is at a high level, the demand in the energy - storage and power - battery sectors has improved, the inventory is gradually decreasing, and the price has strong support below, but the short - term fluctuation may increase. It is necessary to control risks [57] Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 102,830 yuan/ton, rising 2.21%. The US economic data is divided, the Fed's long - term monetary policy is expected to be loose, and the global copper concentrate is in short supply [58] - **Outlook**: The demand is suppressed by high prices, the inventory is accumulating, and the short - term supply - demand is loose. It is expected to adjust at a high level. It is necessary to pay attention to the Fed's interest - rate meeting this week [59] Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 24,315 yuan/ton, rising 0.75%, and the alumina main contract closed at 2719 yuan/ton, falling 0.11%. The alumina market has a supply surplus, and the high aluminum price suppresses downstream demand [61] - **Outlook**: Both the upstream and downstream of the aluminum industry chain are under pressure in the short - term. It is expected to adjust at a high level [61] Zinc - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the Shanghai zinc main contract closed at 24,690 yuan/ton, rising 0.51%. The domestic refined zinc production has increased, the demand is in the off - season, and the inventory has increased slightly [63] - **Outlook**: The zinc price lacks the momentum to continue rising and is unlikely to fall sharply. It is expected to oscillate and adjust [64] Lead - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the Shanghai lead main contract closed at 17,145 yuan/ton, rising 0.29%. The lead concentrate processing fee is low, the supply and demand are both weak, and the inventory is increasing slightly [66] - **Outlook**: The fundamentals have no obvious contradictions, and the lead price is expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation [66] Tin - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the Shanghai tin main contract rose 6.56% to 447,140 yuan/ton. The exchange has introduced cooling measures, and the geopolitical conflicts have pushed up the price center [68] - **Outlook**: The supply is tight, the demand has certain resilience, the inventory is decreasing, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly. It is necessary to control risks [68] Nickel - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the Shanghai nickel main contract rose 1.2% to 146,760 yuan/ton. The "strategic reserve" metals have generally risen, and the Indonesian nickel policy has changed [70] - **Outlook**: The nickel ore price has support, but the stainless - steel market is in the off - season, the demand is weak, and the refined nickel is in an oversupply situation. It is necessary to pay attention to relevant Indonesian policies [70] Agricultural Products Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the soybean meal main contract and soybean oil main contract rose 0.07% each. The spot prices of soybean meal and soybean oil in different regions changed. The market demand expectation has improved, and the South American weather concerns provide support [71] - **Outlook**: The domestic soybean import has slowed down, the oil - mill crushing is in a loss, the cost support has been adjusted downward, the soybean meal demand has a moderate increase, and the soybean oil demand has slightly improved. It is recommended to pay attention to long - position opportunities for soybean meal in the low - cost support range and consider exiting long - positions for soybean oil when the price rises [72] Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: The Malaysian palm oil has fallen due to profit

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