4月28日，国务院新闻办公室举行新闻发布会，国家发展改革委等部门相关负责人重点介绍稳就业稳经 济推动高质量发展的若干举措，回应外界关切。据了解，若干举措注重突出针对性和可操作性，注重增 强企业和群众的获得感，将对经济形成有力支撑，能够促进经济平稳健康发展和保持社会大局稳定。 举措成熟一项出台一项 国家发展改革委副主任赵辰昕在发布会上介绍，若干举措具体包括五方面内容。 在支持就业方面，主要包括鼓励企业积极稳定就业、加大职业技能培训力度、扩大以工代赈等支持、加 强就业公共服务等几项具体举措。 在稳定外贸发展方面，主要包括一业一策、一企一策加大支持力度，帮助出口企业规避风险，扩大服务 产品"出海"，鼓励外资企业境内再投资等几项具体举措。 在促进消费方面，主要包括扩大服务消费，强化失能老年人照护，推动汽车消费扩容，构建技能导向的 薪酬分配制度等几项具体举措。 在积极扩大有效投资方面，主要包括完善消费基础设施、大力提振民间投资积极性、设立新型政策性金 融工具等几项具体举措。 在营造稳定发展的良好环境方面，主要包括持续稳定和活跃资本市场、持续巩固房地产市场稳定态势、 加大对实体经济的金融支持等几项具体举措。 赵辰昕表示， ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is set to implement a series of measures aimed at stabilizing employment and the economy, promoting high-quality development, and enhancing the sense of gain among enterprises and the public [1][5]. Group 1: Employment and Economic Stability - The policy measures focus on "supporting employment" to stabilize the daily lives of households [2]. - The government aims to enhance support for foreign trade enterprises affected by external trade environment changes through tailored strategies [2]. - Expanding domestic demand is a primary task for China's economy this year, with measures aimed at "promoting consumption" and "actively expanding effective investment" to unleash the potential of the vast domestic market [2]. Group 2: Specific Policy Measures - The establishment of a childcare subsidy system is designed to alleviate the burden of child-rearing and encourage higher birth rates, which is crucial given the aging population and declining birth rates [3]. - Targeted issuance of car purchase permits for families facing long waiting times in license plate lotteries aims to stimulate automobile consumption without exacerbating traffic congestion [3]. - The combination of these measures is expected to create significant employment opportunities, with a reported increase of 3.08 million new urban jobs in the first quarter, a year-on-year increase of 50,000 [4]. Group 3: Economic Growth and Consumer Market - The consumption market is anticipated to experience renewed growth, with policies like the trade-in program for consumer goods generating over 720 billion yuan in consumption [4]. - The introduction of the childcare subsidy and special loans to support the elderly care industry targets long-term consumption trends driven by demographic changes [4].

Group 1 - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) is committed to achieving economic and social development goals despite international uncertainties, focusing on domestic priorities [1] - The NDRC is developing a series of measures to stabilize employment and the economy, which will complement previous policies introduced in September and during the Central Economic Work Conference [1] - Key areas of focus include supporting employment, stabilizing foreign trade, promoting consumption, expanding effective investment, and creating a stable development environment [1] Group 2 - The NDRC has allocated over 160 billion yuan for consumption incentives, with additional funds expected to be released, totaling around 140 billion yuan [2] - Investment expansion will include support for industrial software upgrades and infrastructure projects, with a goal to finalize the project list by June [2] - The People's Bank of China plans to adjust monetary policy tools to ensure liquidity and support key areas such as employment and growth [2] Group 3 - The Ministry of Commerce, in collaboration with the NDRC, has introduced a comprehensive policy package to assist foreign trade enterprises in expanding domestic sales and integrating domestic and foreign trade [3] - Financial support measures include increasing government funding, enhancing credit support from financial institutions, and reducing costs for struggling enterprises [3] - The impact of recent fluctuations in the U.S. Treasury market on China's foreign exchange reserves is considered limited due to a diversified investment strategy [3]

Group 1: Employment Support Measures - The government has introduced several measures to stabilize employment, including encouraging companies to maintain jobs, enhancing vocational training, and expanding public employment services [1][3] - A focus on key groups for employment support is emphasized, with a commitment to provide timely policy adjustments based on changing circumstances [3][5] Group 2: Foreign Trade and Investment - Policies are being implemented to support foreign trade, including tailored strategies for individual industries and companies to help export businesses mitigate risks [1][2] - The government aims to enhance effective investment by improving consumer infrastructure and boosting private investment through new policy financial tools [1][4] Group 3: Consumer Spending Initiatives - The government plans to stimulate consumption by expanding service consumption, promoting automotive sales, and implementing a recycling program for consumer goods [1][2] - In the first quarter, retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.6% year-on-year, with March showing a notable growth of 5.9%, the fastest monthly growth since last year [2] Group 4: Economic Stability and Environment - Measures to create a stable economic environment include maintaining a vibrant capital market, reinforcing real estate market stability, and increasing financial support for the real economy [1][4] - The central bank has reported that foreign exchange reserves remain stable at over $3.2 trillion, providing strong support for the stability of the RMB exchange rate [2]

Group 1 - The central government is focusing on stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations through various measures [1][2] - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) will introduce several initiatives aimed at supporting employment, stabilizing foreign trade, promoting consumption, expanding investment, and creating a favorable environment [2][3] - Specific measures include encouraging companies to maintain employment, enhancing vocational training, and providing public employment services [2][6] Group 2 - Policies to boost domestic demand will accelerate implementation in the second quarter, including a special action to stimulate consumption and the establishment of a childcare subsidy system [4][5] - The government has allocated over 160 billion yuan for consumption incentives, with plans to issue additional funds based on local payment progress [4][5] - The automotive industry has seen significant activity, with over 2.81 million vehicles exchanged under the trade-in program, contributing to sales exceeding 720 billion yuan [5] Group 3 - Employment figures remain stable, with 3.08 million new urban jobs created in the first quarter, and the urban unemployment rate averaging 5.3% [6] - The government plans to enhance support for companies to expand job positions and provide increased employment subsidies [6][7] - Measures to assist foreign trade enterprises include integrating domestic and foreign trade reforms and enhancing trade finance support [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of stabilizing employment and the economy to promote high-quality development in response to external environmental changes [1][2] - The government aims to implement a series of policies to boost domestic demand, including a special action to stimulate consumption and utilizing 5 trillion yuan of investment funds [1][2] - The Central Political Bureau meeting highlighted the need for continuous improvement of policy tools to ensure economic stability and social stability [1][2] Group 2 - The introduction of incremental reserve policies and counter-cyclical adjustments is crucial for generating new momentum for economic growth in the second half of the year [2] - A moderately loose monetary policy will support employment and economic stability, including potential interest rate cuts and maintaining ample liquidity [2] - Enhancing domestic demand is identified as a primary means to stabilize employment and the economy, focusing on increasing income for low- and middle-income groups [2][3] Group 3 - Boosting consumption is deemed essential, with specific measures such as establishing a childcare subsidy system and supporting the automotive industry [3] - The government recognizes the potential for expanding domestic demand, particularly through new urbanization and upgrading durable consumer goods [3] - Structural changes in demand are impacting employment, necessitating a focus on ensuring job stability for key groups such as recent graduates and migrant workers [3][4] Group 4 - There is an emphasis on increasing vocational training in sectors with high employment capacity, such as healthcare, advanced manufacturing, and modern services [4] - Policy incentives will be strengthened to encourage both enterprises and workers to engage in skill training, aligning with the evolving labor market demands [4]

对话资深财政专家：如何解读一季度政治局会议？ 20250427 摘要 • 2025 年一季度中国 GDP 同比增长 4.59%，实现"开门红"，但财政收 入疲软，需关注财政支出问题。中美贸易战对出口造成冲击，政府正积极 应对，通过扩大内需替代受阻外贸，稳定经济基本面。 • 政府从消费端、供给端和改革端多管齐下，提振消费服务，帮扶困难企业， 推动关键技术攻关和产业升级，深化改革建设统一大市场，旨在应对不确 定性，促进经济高质量发展。 • 中央政治局强调实施积极有为的宏观政策，加快地方专项债券和超长期国 债发行使用，并兜牢基层"三保"底线，防范风险，确保资金流与工程进 度相适应，提振消费。 • 今年将发行 1.3 万亿超长期特别国债，其中 5,000 亿用于重大项目建设、 设备更新和以旧换新，财政增量主要来自中央政府国债，以扩大重大工程 建设和设备更新投资，同时促进消费品以旧换新。 • 财政政策关注精准性，提高失业保险基金的稳岗返还比例，健全分层分类 的社会救助体系，扩大监控范围，为低收入和特困人群提供更全面保障， 应对贸易战冲击。 Q&A 如何解读 2025 年一季度政治局会议的主要内容及其对经济形势的判断？ ...

面对外部冲击影响加大，我国将加紧实施更加积极有为的宏观政策。 4月25日召开的中央政治局会议强调，要不断完善稳就业稳经济的政策工具箱。此前4月18日的国务院常 务会议已经研究了稳就业稳经济推动高质量发展的若干举措。 国家发改委副主任赵辰昕28日在国新办发布会上表示，稳就业稳经济推动高质量发展的若干举措包括五 方面内容：支持就业、稳定外贸、促进消费、积极扩大有效投资、营造稳定发展的良好环境。 赵辰昕表示，我国有丰富的政策储备和充分的政策空间，将加快实施稳就业稳经济若干举措，推动各项 政策尽快出台实施，更加注重提高政策落地效率和实施效果，确保直达群众和企业；加力推动既定政策 落地见效，包括提振消费专项行动、用好今年国家层面5万亿元投资资金、加快设立国家创业投资引导 基金等。这些政策大部分将在二季度落地，并不断强化政策取向一致性。 中国人民银行副行长邹澜在发布会上回答第一财经记者提问时表示，为了应对新的困难和挑战，央行将 从持续加大金融资源要素投入、更有针对性地拓宽民营企业多元化融资渠道、更大力度推动完善民营企 业融资配套机制三个方面继续做好民营企业金融服务工作。 发挥内需主动力作用 稳就业稳经济推动高质量发展的若 ...

Group 1: Employment and Economic Stability - The central government emphasizes the need to improve the policy toolbox for stabilizing employment and the economy, with a focus on high-quality development [1] - Measures include encouraging companies to maintain employment, increasing vocational training, and providing financial support for job creation [2] - The government has allocated 667 billion yuan in central employment subsidy funds to support policy implementation [2] Group 2: Support for Foreign Trade Enterprises - The government plans to implement tailored support for foreign trade enterprises to help them navigate external risks [3] - Initiatives include increasing financial support, reducing costs for struggling companies, and expanding export credit insurance coverage [3] - The government aims to facilitate the integration of domestic and foreign trade, enhancing support for key industries [3] Group 3: Consumer Spending and Investment - Initiatives to boost consumer spending include expanding service consumption and promoting automobile sales [4][5] - The government has allocated over 1.6 trillion yuan for consumption upgrades and plans to introduce additional financial support for service sectors [5] - There is a focus on enhancing infrastructure for consumption and increasing private investment through new policy financial tools [6] Group 4: Financial Support for the Real Economy - The central bank is committed to maintaining reasonable growth in monetary credit and optimizing the credit structure to support the real economy [7] - Measures include potential interest rate cuts and the introduction of new structural monetary policy tools to support employment and growth [7] - The government expresses confidence in achieving economic and social development goals despite international uncertainties [7]

Core Viewpoint - The current U.S. tariff war is an attempt to address the structural contradictions within the U.S. debt-dollar system, which is an evolution of the "Triffin Dilemma" [2][5] Summary by Sections U.S. Tariff War Reasons - The tariff war is initiated to tackle the unsustainable fiscal situation caused by trade deficits, aiming to resolve the inherent contradictions of the U.S. debt-dollar system [2] - The U.S. has imposed tariffs on various imports, including a 25% tariff on imported cars and a 30% tariff on goods valued under $800 [1] Tariff Calculation Issues - The U.S. tariff calculation method is flawed, using a formula that overestimates the necessary tariff rates by about double [3][4] - The formula's assumptions regarding price elasticity of demand and supply are inaccurate, leading to potential miscalculations in expected tariff impacts [3][4] Economic Impact of Tariffs - The tariff increases are expected to raise domestic prices, with an average cost increase of $2,700 per household and a potential rise in core inflation by 1.7% to 2.1% [7] - The tariff war is likely to reduce bilateral trade and weaken the dollar's status as a reserve currency, as evidenced by rising U.S. debt yields and a declining dollar index [5][7] Recommendations for Response - The company suggests increasing macroeconomic countermeasures, including fiscal and monetary policies to mitigate the impact of tariffs [9][10] - Emphasis on enhancing consumer income and building a robust domestic demand market is recommended to counteract the effects of the tariff war [10] - The company advocates for further innovation support to maintain a competitive edge in global supply chains, particularly in high-tech and emerging industries [11]