Core Viewpoint - The announcement by President Trump to impose a 30% tariff on goods imported from the EU starting August 1 poses a significant risk of escalating trade conflicts between the US and Europe, potentially disrupting transatlantic supply chains and harming businesses and consumers on both sides of the Atlantic [1] Group 1 - The US will impose a 30% tariff on EU imports starting August 1 [1] - European business leaders express concerns over the potential escalation of trade tensions [1] - The tariff policy is viewed as unreasonable and likely to disrupt transatlantic supply chains [1]

Core Viewpoint - The global central banks are accumulating gold at the fastest pace in three years, while gold prices are experiencing significant volatility due to trade policies and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][3]. Group 1: Impact of Tariffs - The increase in steel tariffs from 25% to 30% by the Trump administration has created a delayed impact on the market, with costs expected to rise significantly in the coming months [3]. - A 1% increase in tariffs could lead to an additional cost of $24 billion for American consumers [3]. - The automotive industry is particularly vulnerable, with potential cost increases of 20% once existing inventory is depleted [3]. Group 2: Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Decisions - The Federal Reserve is experiencing internal divisions regarding interest rate cuts, with at least six members advocating for immediate cuts while others caution against premature action [4][5]. - The market is betting heavily on a total of 100 basis points in rate cuts this year, leading to significant inflows into gold ETFs [4][5]. - Recent CPI data showing a drop to 3.1% has further fueled expectations for rate cuts, impacting gold prices [5]. Group 3: Central Banks' Gold Purchases - Emerging market central banks have been net buyers of gold for nine consecutive months, with significant purchases from Turkey and India [7][9]. - Poland's central bank has notably completed 60% of its goal to purchase 100 tons of gold within the first half of the year [9]. - Despite a 3% drop in gold prices in June, central bank purchases surged by 40% year-over-year, indicating strong demand [9]. Group 4: Market Volatility and Trading Behavior - Gold prices have shown extreme volatility, with significant daily fluctuations driven by geopolitical events and Federal Reserve signals [10]. - The gold-silver ratio has increased to 88:1, indicating a shift in investment strategies towards silver mining stocks [11]. - The market remains uncertain, with ongoing pressures from tariffs and interest rate expectations creating both risks and opportunities for investors [13].

这不是狼来了的故事——只不过，这一次"狼"可能真在门口了。 在经历了几个月的"按兵不动"后，美国消费者价格指数（CPI）终于要动真格的了。而这波涨价背后，有个熟悉的 老面孔——特朗普的关税政策。 你以为关税加了、价格就立刻飙上去？真没那么简单。过去这段时间，市场像是在按下暂停键，表面平静，其实 底下早就暗流涌动。现在，这股压力正在一点点冒头。 CPI即将放大招？经济学家的预言正在成真 根据最新预测，6月美国整体CPI和核心CPI都将环比上涨0.3%。听起来不多？可别小看这个数字——这意味着年 化核心通胀率将逼近3%，已经远远超出了美联储2%的"舒适区"。 一旦数据坐实，原本押注7月降息的那批人，可能要改口了。 鲍威尔上个月其实已经放风了："关税的影响会在6月或7月的数据显示出来。" 看来，这不是一句场面话。 关税的"隐身术"：它们去了哪？ 很多人不解：加税明明早就落地，为啥通胀现在才动静大？ 原油跌、房租稳，这些大项反而压住了物价。 但别以为这就没事了。工具、新车、家具这类商品价格，已经悄悄涨了0.3%。 这些原本是价格"惯性下跌"的品 类，现在回头涨价，已经不是巧合。 接下来是"阵痛"，还是长期通胀的前奏？ ...

Core Viewpoint - The current fluctuations in gold prices are influenced by geopolitical tensions and U.S. trade policies, particularly tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, which are expected to provide support for gold as a safe-haven asset [1][3]. Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - Gold prices are currently trading around $3,330 per ounce, showing slight increases due to safe-haven demand amid tariff announcements from Trump [1]. - Despite a recent rise in the U.S. dollar index, which reached a high of 98.70, the market interprets this as a technical adjustment rather than a long-term trend shift, suggesting potential for gold price recovery [1][3]. - The uncertainty surrounding tariff policies is likely to support gold prices, as market sentiment remains cautiously optimistic despite short-term price fluctuations [3]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Federal Reserve Policy - Market expectations indicate a potential interest rate cut of about 44 basis points by the end of the year, with a decrease in the probability of a September rate cut from 80% to 53% [4]. - Fed Chairman Powell's cautious stance on inflation suggests that the Fed may remain vigilant regarding interest rate adjustments, which could impact gold prices [4]. - The upcoming Producer Price Index (PPI) data is critical, as it may confirm inflation pressures and influence market expectations regarding interest rate cuts [4][5]. Group 3: Investment Outlook - The gold market presents both challenges and opportunities, with short-term price movements expected to remain within the $3,300 to $3,400 range [5]. - Long-term factors such as geopolitical risks, inflation expectations, and a trend towards looser monetary policy could provide upward momentum for gold prices [5][6]. - Investors are advised to closely monitor PPI data and developments in U.S. tariff policies, as well as trends in the dollar and bond yields, to identify investment opportunities in the gold market [6].

全球市场波动中，外贸人既要迎战挑战，也要把握新机遇。本文将为外贸从业者带来最新的国际国内要闻、市场动态及风险预警，涵盖经济、政治、金融等 多个领域。 最新！美国对多国加征"对等关税"详细总表！最高50%，你出口的国家中招了吗？中国制造网 Global Pay Pro 上一交易日17:00美元兑人民币： 7.1707（市场参考价：7.1559） 02 国内见闻 宏观政策与经济运行 贸易与外贸动向 行业与地方发展 0 1 国际要闻 国际贸易与关税动向 黄仁勋宣布美国批准 H20 芯片销往中国。 阿根廷政府允许以已预付国家税抵扣进口关税。 美国对三氯乙烯（TCE）全面禁令或将于 8 月 19 日正式生效。 美国对俄罗斯威胁征收 100% 关税。 欧盟准备对 720 亿欧元美国商品征收反制关税。 欧盟委员会委员谢夫乔维奇 7 月 14 日表示，若美欧贸易谈判失败，将对 720 亿欧元美国商品征收额外反制关税。 巴西 7 月 14 日成立 "谈判与经贸对策委员会"，评估美国对巴西征收 50% 关税的影响，15 日将与工业和农业部门举行会议。 美国商务部 7 月 14 日宣布，对大部分墨西哥进口番茄征收 17.09% 反 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The precious metals market is expected to maintain high - level fluctuations due to uncertainties in the US economic situation and inflation. Copper prices are likely to face downward pressure due to changes in supply and demand and tariff policies. Alumina prices are expected to show a strong and volatile trend, with a supply shift from tight balance to structural surplus. The electrolytic aluminum market has mixed factors, with macro - economic and policy impacts, and inventory changes affecting prices. Cast aluminum alloy prices are under pressure, with supply and demand imbalances. Zinc prices may decline due to increased supply and weak consumption. Lead prices may fluctuate at high levels, with improved consumption and limited supply growth. Nickel prices are expected to be weak, with a weak supply - demand situation in the off - season. Stainless steel prices are under pressure due to over - supply and weak demand. Industrial silicon prices are expected to be bullish after a correction, with a balanced supply - demand situation. Polysilicon prices are expected to enter a volatile phase. Lithium carbonate prices are expected to be volatile in the short term and may decline in the long term [3][8][14][20][27][30][34][37][42][48][53][55]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals Market Review - London gold closed down 0.58% at $3323.29 per ounce, and London silver closed down 1.12% at $37.686 per ounce. The US dollar index rose 0.54% to 98.62, the 10 - year US Treasury yield climbed to 4.488%, and the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar strengthened, closing up 0.12% at 7.181 [2]. Important Information - The US CPI data in June met market expectations, with the overall CPI annual rate rising to 2.7% and the core CPI annual rate rising to 2.9%. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 97.4%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 2.6%. The probability of keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 45.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 53.5% [2]. Logic Analysis - The CPI data dampened market expectations of a rate cut, causing the US dollar and Treasury yields to rise and precious metals to be under pressure. If the US labor market does not collapse unexpectedly, the Fed's rate - cut timing may be postponed, and precious metals are expected to maintain high - level fluctuations [3]. Trading Strategy - Consider taking profits on long positions at high prices. Wait and see for arbitrage and options trading [3]. Copper Market Review - The night - session of the SHFE copper 2508 contract closed at 78,070 yuan per ton, up 0.18%. The LME copper closed at $9,657.5 per ton, up 0.15%. LME inventory increased by 850 tons to 110,500 tons, and COMEX inventory increased by 1,810 tons to 238,000 tons [5]. Important Information - The US CPI data in June met expectations. There were various tariff - related news, and the import of copper ore and concentrates in June 2025 increased by 1.7% year - on - year, while the import of unwrought copper and copper products decreased by 6.4% year - on - year [5][6]. Logic Analysis - The CPI data reduced market expectations of a Fed rate cut in September, causing the US dollar index to rise and non - ferrous metal prices to fall. The 232 tariff will be implemented on August 1, and the supply situation will change, with LME inventory bottoming out [8]. Trading Strategy - Hold short positions. Wait and see for arbitrage and options trading [8]. Alumina Market Review - The night - session of the alumina 2509 contract fell 17 yuan to 3,144 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions showed an upward trend [10]. Important Information - There were policy - related news, domestic spot transactions, changes in warehouse receipts, production capacity, output, inventory, and bauxite shipments [11][12][13]. Logic Analysis - Although the operating capacity remained flat, production was increasing. The supply - demand pattern is shifting from tight balance to structural surplus, but warehouse - receipt demand may disperse the pressure of spot surplus, and prices are expected to be strong and volatile [14]. Trading Strategy - Conduct high - selling and low - buying in the short - term. Wait and see for arbitrage and options trading [16]. Electrolytic Aluminum Market Review - The night - session of the SHFE aluminum 2508 contract remained flat at 20,390 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions rose [18]. Important Information - There were changes in inventory, basis, and warehouse receipts. US inflation data and tariff - related news were also reported, along with domestic housing construction data [18][19]. Trading Logic - Macro - economic factors suppress the Fed's rate - cut expectations, and the domestic market focuses on policy expectations. Fundamentally, inventory changes and demand factors co - exist [20]. Trading Strategy - Adopt a bearish view in the short - term. Wait and see for arbitrage and options trading [21]. Cast Aluminum Alloy Market Review - The night - session of the cast aluminum alloy 2511 contract rose 20 yuan to 19,795 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions remained flat [23]. Important Information - There were changes in production, cost, and inventory [23][24][26]. Trading Logic - Supply is stable but with actual transaction difficulties, and demand is weak. Futures prices are expected to follow aluminum prices due to cost factors [27]. Trading Strategy - Adopt a bearish view. Consider arbitrage when the price difference between aluminum alloy and aluminum is between - 200 and - 1000 yuan, and consider cash - and - carry arbitrage when the futures - spot price difference is over 400 yuan. Wait and see for options trading [27]. Zinc Market Review - The LME zinc market fell 1.13% to $2,701.5 per ton, and the SHFE zinc 2509 fell 0.54% to 21,985 yuan per ton. Spot prices and trading conditions were reported [29]. Important Information - A zinc smelter planned maintenance and capacity expansion, and domestic zinc inventory increased [29]. Logic Analysis - Domestic zinc supply is increasing, consumption is in the off - season, and inventory is accumulating, so prices may be under pressure [30]. Trading Strategy - Hold short positions. Wait and see for arbitrage and options trading [35]. Lead Market Review - The LME lead market fell 0.2% to $2,001 per ton, and the SHFE lead 2508 contract fell 0.44% to 16,935 yuan per ton. Spot prices and trading conditions were reported [32]. Important Information - Lead inventory increased [33]. Logic Analysis - The supply of recycled lead is in a loss state, and production willingness is low. The traditional peak season for lead - acid batteries is approaching, and consumption is improving [34]. Trading Strategy - Conduct high - selling and low - buying in the short - term. Sell put options for arbitrage. Wait and see for options trading [34]. Nickel Market Review - The LME nickel rose to $15,215 per ton, and the SHFE nickel NI2508 rose to 121,060 yuan per ton. Spot premiums changed [37]. Important Information - The LME Hong Kong delivery warehouse started operation [37]. Logic Analysis - Concerns about US tariffs affect external demand. The supply - demand situation in the off - season is weak, and prices are expected to be weak but with cost support [37]. Trading Strategy - Prices are expected to decline. Wait and see for arbitrage. Sell deep - out - of - the - money call options [38]. Stainless Steel Market Review - The SS2508 contract rose to 12,720 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions were reported [40]. Important Information - India postponed the implementation of relevant regulations, and South Korea imposed anti - dumping duties on Vietnamese cold - rolled stainless steel [40][42]. Logic Analysis - External and internal demand is weak, inventory is accumulating, and prices are under pressure [42]. Trading Strategy - Adopt a bearish view. Wait and see for arbitrage [43]. Industrial Silicon Market Review - The industrial silicon futures main contract rose 2.81% to 8,785 yuan per ton, and spot prices also rose [45]. Important Information - The US launched 232 investigations on imported drones and polysilicon [46]. Comprehensive Analysis - Production is decreasing, and demand is relatively stable. The market is in a balanced state, and prices are expected to be bullish after a correction [48]. Strategy - Adopt a bullish view after a correction. Close the long - polysilicon and short - industrial - silicon arbitrage position [49]. Polysilicon Market Review - The polysilicon futures main contract rose 2.78% to 42,470 yuan per ton, and spot prices declined [51]. Important Information - There was news of China - EU energy cooperation [51]. Comprehensive Analysis - Market rumors are frequent, and prices are expected to enter a volatile phase [53]. Strategy - Conduct range trading. Wait and see for options trading. Close the long - polysilicon and short - industrial - silicon arbitrage position [53]. Lithium Carbonate Market Review - The main 2509 contract rose 140 yuan to 66,100 yuan per ton, and spot prices rose [55]. Important Information - There were policy - related news about technology export control [55]. Logic Analysis - Supply - side disturbances have not had a substantial impact on production. Prices are expected to be volatile in the short term and may decline in the long term [55]. Trading Strategy - Wait for short - selling opportunities. Wait and see for arbitrage. Sell deep - out - of - the - money put options [57].

Group 1: Macro Strategy - The report indicates that the market expects the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates steady in July and October 2025, with a 25 basis point cut anticipated in September and December [6][7] - Key macroeconomic data shows a decline in initial jobless claims to 227,000, and a significant increase in tax revenue by $61 billion year-on-year, driven by tariffs [6][7] Group 2: Industry Commentary - Power Equipment and New Energy - China Mobile has procured humanoid robots worth 1.24 billion yuan, marking a significant investment in robotics [10] - The National Development and Reform Commission has approved a cross-regional electricity trading mechanism, enhancing the efficiency of electricity transactions [10] - The report highlights the establishment of a joint laboratory between BYD and Hong Kong University of Science and Technology focusing on robotics and intelligent manufacturing [10][11] Group 3: Industry Commentary - Textile Manufacturing - The 2024 Top 100 supermarket enterprises in China are projected to achieve sales of approximately 900 billion yuan, reflecting a 0.3% year-on-year growth [14] - The report notes a significant decline in the number of stores, down 9.8% year-on-year, while 42 enterprises reported sales growth [14] - The textile manufacturing sector in Vietnam has shown a cumulative year-on-year export growth of 13.0% in the first half of 2025 [16] Group 4: Company Commentary - Haohua Technology - Haohua Technology is expected to achieve a net profit of 5.9 to 6.5 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 59.3% to 75.5% [23] - The company benefits from a favorable market for refrigerants, with prices for key products rising significantly since the beginning of the year [23][24] - The report emphasizes the growth potential in electronic materials due to the expansion of the integrated circuit industry [23][24] Group 5: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies in the BC new technology sector such as Aisuo Co. and Longi Green Energy, and those benefiting from supply-side improvements like Daqo New Energy [12] - It suggests monitoring companies in the humanoid robotics sector, including UBTECH and Yijiahe, for potential investment opportunities [12]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings was found in the provided reports. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: The copper market is affected by both macro and fundamental factors. The expected 50% tariff on US copper in late July, along with weakening demand and existing supply - side contradictions, may lead to price fluctuations. The主力 contract price is expected to be affected by the 78000 support level [1]. - **Aluminum**: For alumina, the market is in a state of small - scale surplus, with prices expected to oscillate between 2950 - 3250. For aluminum, high - level prices face pressure due to inventory accumulation, weakening demand, and macro uncertainties, with the主力 contract price expected to range from 20000 - 20800 [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The regenerative aluminum market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, with demand being the more prominent issue. The price is expected to oscillate weakly, with the main contract running between 19400 - 20200 [4]. - **Zinc**: The zinc market has a loose supply expectation in the long - term. Although the inventory level provides some price support, the domestic social inventory may enter a stockpiling cycle. The main contract price is expected to range from 21500 - 23000 [7]. - **Nickel**: In the nickel market, the cost support for refined nickel is weakening, and the medium - term supply is expected to be loose. The short - term price is expected to adjust within a range, with the main contract reference of 118000 - 126000 [10]. - **Tin**: The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the demand is expected to be weak after the end of the photovoltaic rush - installation period. It is recommended to hold short positions from the previous high [12]. - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless steel market has weak demand and slow inventory reduction. The short - term price is expected to oscillate, with the main contract running between 12500 - 13000 [14][15]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium carbonate market has short - term price support due to news and capital sentiment, but the medium - term pressure remains, and there may be a downward trend. The short - term main contract is expected to run between 63000 - 68000 [17]. 3. Summary by Directory Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price dropped by 0.59% to 77995 yuan/ton, and the premium increased by 155 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap price difference decreased by 35.97% to 545 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the electrolytic copper production was 113.49 million tons, and the import volume in May increased by 1.23% to 25.31 million tons. The domestic social inventory increased by 3.29% to 14.76 million tons [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price rose by 0.20% to 20510 yuan/ton, and the premium increased by 110 yuan/ton. The alumina price in Shandong increased by 0.32% to 3150 yuan/ton [3]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the alumina production was 725.81 million tons, and the electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 3.22% to 360.90 million tons. The aluminum profile production rate remained unchanged at 49.50% [3]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged at 20000 yuan/ton. The spread between 2511 - 2512 increased by 40 yuan/ton to 90 yuan/ton [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the regenerative aluminum alloy ingot production increased by 1.49% to 61.50 million tons, and the primary aluminum alloy ingot production decreased by 2.30% to 25.50 million tons [4]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price dropped by 0.14% to 22150 yuan/ton, and the import profit and loss increased by 63.52 yuan/ton to - 1260 yuan/ton [7]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the refined zinc production increased by 6.50% to 58.51 million tons, and the import volume in May decreased by 5.36% to 2.67 million tons. The galvanizing production rate increased by 1.81% to 58.29% [7]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price dropped by 1.11% to 120400 yuan/ton, and the import profit and loss decreased by 447 yuan/ton to - 2442 yuan/ton [10]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the Chinese refined nickel production was 31800 tons, and the import volume increased by 116.90% to 19157 tons. The SHFE inventory increased by 0.83% to 24922 tons [10]. Tin - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 tin price dropped by 0.71% to 264600 yuan/ton, and the spread between 2508 - 2509 decreased by 120 yuan/ton to - 130 yuan/ton [12]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, the tin ore import volume increased by 36.39% to 13449 tons, and the SMM refined tin production decreased by 2.37% to 14840 tons [12]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spread**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) dropped by 0.39% to 12750 yuan/ton, and the spread between 2509 - 2510 decreased by 25 yuan/ton to - 60 yuan/ton [14]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production of Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel (43 companies) in April decreased by 3.83% to 171.33 million tons, and the 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) increased by 3.39% to 52.48 million tons [14]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.39% to 64900 yuan/ton, and the basis increased by 110 yuan/ton to - 1960 yuan/ton [17]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the lithium carbonate production increased by 8.34% to 78090 tons, and the demand decreased by 0.15% to 93876 tons. The total inventory increased by 2.27% to 99858 tons [17].

Core Viewpoint - The lithium battery market is expected to see significant growth in the first half of 2025, driven by domestic production and sales increases, as well as demand from the old-for-new policy and fluctuations in U.S. tariff policies [1][2]. Market Overview - In the first half of 2025, global lithium battery production reached 986.5 GWh, marking a 48.3% year-on-year increase, with power batteries contributing the most at 684 GWh (up 49%) and energy storage batteries exceeding 25% market share at 258 GWh (up 106%) [2][4]. Segment Analysis Power Segment - In China, the continuation of the old-for-new subsidy policy and the popularity of new models led to domestic new energy vehicle sales reaching 6.937 million units in the first half of 2025, a 40.3% increase year-on-year. The commercial vehicle market saw a significant demand increase, with sales of new energy commercial vehicles reaching 70,000 units (up 58.6%) [4][5]. - In the overseas market, the EU has eased carbon emission assessments for car manufacturers, and countries like Belgium and Poland are providing subsidies to stimulate local demand for new energy vehicles. The U.S. market, however, faced challenges due to policy changes affecting EV subsidies [4][5]. Energy Storage Segment - The energy storage market experienced strong demand in the first half of the year due to both preemptive stocking and installation needs. In China, the large-scale storage market was influenced by the cancellation of mandatory storage policies, leading to increased demand for upstream battery cells [5]. - Internationally, the U.S. maintained high demand for power storage, although fluctuating tariff policies created some disruptions. Europe saw a rise in demand as inventory was consumed, while markets in the Middle East and Southeast Asia continued to show strong demand [5]. Digital Consumer Segment - The introduction of the old-for-new policy for high-end electronic consumer goods set a positive tone for the digital consumer market in early 2025, with a noticeable recovery in demand for products like smartphones. The electric tools market is also expanding, particularly with the rise of humanoid robots [5]. Future Outlook - The overall demand in the domestic market is expected to remain strong, with Chinese lithium battery manufacturers like CATL, BYD, and Zhongchuang Innovation further increasing their global market share. The global lithium battery production is projected to exceed 2000 GWh in 2025, driven by the growth of popular new energy vehicle models and advancements in energy storage technology [6][8].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View Overseas copper mines face disruptions in production or transportation. However, due to the Trump administration's substantial tariff hikes on multiple countries and the onset of the traditional off - season for domestic consumption, the global electrolytic copper inventory is accumulating. As a result, copper prices may still have room to decline. It is recommended that investors hold short positions, and pay attention to support and resistance levels in different markets [3]. 3. Summary by Related Aspects Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On July 15, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 78,090 yuan, down 310 yuan from the previous day; the trading volume was 81,666 lots, up 2,530 lots; the open interest was 169,930 lots, down 2,274 lots; the SMM 1 electrolytic copper inventory was 50,133 tons, up 15,754 tons, and the average price was 77,995 yuan, down 460 yuan [2]. - **London Copper**: On July 14, 2025, the LME 3 - month copper futures closing price (electronic trading) was 9,643.5 dollars; the total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 110,475 tons; the spread of LME copper futures 0 - 3 months contract was - 62.07 dollars; the spread of LME copper futures 3 - 15 months contract was - 124.71 dollars. The Shanghai - London copper price ratio on July 15 was 8.0977, down 0.031 [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: On July 15, 2025, the closing price of the active copper futures contract was 5.5165 dollars, down 0.07 dollars; the total inventory was 238,264 tons, up 4,060 tons [2]. Macroeconomic Information - The US Treasury plans to increase its cash reserves to 500 billion and 50 billion dollars by the end of July and September respectively through increasing the weekly benchmark bond auction size. The US added 147,000 non - farm jobs in June, higher than expected, and the CPI annual rate in June was 2.7%, which was in line with expectations but higher than the previous value, reducing the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September or December [3]. Upstream Situation - The import index of Chinese copper concentrates is negative but has increased compared to last week. The departure (arrival, inventory) volume of copper concentrates at world (Chinese) ports has decreased (increased, decreased) compared to last week. High - quality scrap copper exports are restricted, and the spread between domestic electrolytic copper and scrap copper makes scrap copper more economical, opening the scrap copper import window. Some overseas copper mines and smelters have production disruptions, while some domestic projects are in progress or planned to be put into production [3]. Downstream Situation - The daily processing fee of copper rods for power and cable in East China has decreased compared to last week. The capacity utilization rate of some copper product industries has changed, with some expected to decline and some to increase. Domestic electrolytic copper holders have no inventory pressure and are reluctant to sell at low prices, while downstream buyers mainly make purchases for immediate needs or long - term contracts [3]. Trading Strategy Investors are advised to hold short positions and pay attention to support and resistance levels: Shanghai copper at 78,000 - 78,000 yuan for support and 80,000 - 81,000 yuan for resistance; London copper at 9,300 - 9,500 dollars for support and 9,800 - 10,000 dollars for resistance; COMEX copper at 5.0 - 6.2 dollars for support and 6.0 - 7.0 dollars for resistance [3].