1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The lithium salt market is experiencing strong supply and demand. After the holiday, the enthusiasm for downstream replenishment has exceeded market expectations, and the market volatility has increased. From a seasonal perspective, downstream demand may experience a seasonal decline around the Spring Festival. Both upstream and downstream enterprises should seize the opportunity to conduct futures and options hedging according to their risk management needs [4][5]. - For industrial silicon, the supply is expected to remain at a high level. Although the short - term demand is fair during the traditional peak season in October, the supply pressure in the polysilicon industry is significant, and future production reduction is expected. The futures price of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate within a range [6]. - In the polysilicon market, the high profit has driven high production enthusiasm, but the terminal demand is weak, leading to obvious inventory accumulation. With the possible implementation of photovoltaic capacity control policies, the market shows a situation of strong expectation and weak reality, and the futures price is expected to oscillate at a high level [8][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Spot Price 3.1.1 Plate Strategy Recommendation - **Carbonate Lithium**: The market is characterized by strong supply and demand but a weakening atmosphere. The support level is 68,000 - 70,000, and the pressure level is 78,000 - 80,000. It is expected to decline in an oscillatory manner. Upstream enterprises should seize the opportunity to conduct selling hedging when the price rises, and downstream cathode material enterprises should pay attention to stocking up at low prices or conducting buying hedging [15]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply - demand pressure is increasing, and the price is under pressure. However, there is certain policy support at the lower price. The support level is 8,200 - 8,300, and the pressure level is 9,200 - 9,300. It is expected to oscillate within a range. Currently, an interval long - position strategy can be considered [15]. - **Polysilicon**: The fundamental pressure has led to a significant decline in the futures price. Before the implementation of capacity control policies, the market may fluctuate. The support level is 47,000 - 48,000, and the pressure level is 52,000 - 53,000. It is expected to oscillate at a high level. Previous long positions are recommended to be closed, and short - selling opportunities on rebounds can be considered in the future [15]. - **Arbitrage Recommendation**: There are currently no good arbitrage opportunities [16]. 3.1.2 Futures and Spot Price Changes | Variety | Closing Price | Increase/Decrease Rate | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | Warehouse Receipts | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Carbonate Lithium | 75,700 | 0.00% | 169,108 | 138,434 | - 20,566 | 30,705 | | Industrial Silicon | 8,565 | 1.60% | 190,332 | 114,236 | - 17,557 | 49,303 | | Polysilicon | 50,340 | - 3.66% | 150,772 | 56,806 | - 11,421 | 9,150 | [16] 3.2 Second Part: Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Carbonate Lithium Fundamental Data - **Production and Inventory**: Last week, the production of carbonate lithium reached 21,066 tons, a 431 - ton increase from the previous week, hitting a new weekly high. All lithium - extraction processes showed an upward trend. The total sample inventory was 132,658 tons, a 2,143 - ton decrease from the previous week, with an accelerating de - stocking speed, but the inventory remained at a high level. The downstream inventory decreased slightly [4]. - **Downstream Situation**: The weekly apparent demand for lithium salts reached 23,209 tons, hitting a new weekly high [4]. 3.2.2 Industrial Silicon Fundamental Data - **Production and Inventory**: With the arrival of the flat - water period, electricity prices in some south - western regions have increased, and some factories have shut down furnaces. There are signs of复产 in the north - western region, and the overall supply is expected to remain high [6]. - **Downstream Situation**: During the traditional peak season in October, the short - term demand is fair. However, the polysilicon industry is facing significant supply pressure, and future production reduction is expected [6]. 3.2.3 Polysilicon Fundamental Data - **Production and Inventory**: Driven by high profits, enterprises are highly motivated to produce, and the production in October is expected to exceed expectations. However, the terminal demand is weak, and the inventory has been accumulating significantly [8]. - **Downstream Situation**: The National Energy Administration announced that the new photovoltaic installed capacity in August was only 7.36GW, a new low for the year. Downstream production cuts are being gradually implemented [8].

Group 1: Swine Industry - The current average price of live pigs is 13.56 yuan/kg, which has decreased by 0.37 yuan/kg compared to the previous week, with the most significant declines observed in Guangdong and Guangxi, where prices dropped nearly 1 yuan/kg [2] - The decline in prices in Guangdong and Guangxi is attributed to changes in transportation policies, which have restricted external transfers and impacted local prices [2] - The proportion of pigs weighing less than 90kg being sold has slightly increased to 3.71%, indicating that both the epidemic situation and policy changes are affecting short-term prices [2] - Long-term capacity control policies will continue to influence industry supply and the long-term trend of pig prices, making it essential to monitor the determination and strength of these policies [3] - The recommendation to invest in the breeding sector remains strong [3] Group 2: Pet Industry - The top three brands in the pet category on Douyin this week are Maifudi, Weishi, and Frigat, with Zhongchong Co. and Wanpi ranking 27th and 35th respectively [4] - Maifudi has launched a new fresh meat pet food product emphasizing reduced oil content, while Wanpi has received the "Best Growth Award" from Meituan for being the only pet brand on its platform [4] - Overall, innovation in pet brands is shifting from merely pleasing pet owners to focusing on pet health, with domestic brands showing stronger innovation capabilities [4] Group 3: Agriculture - As September approaches, most agricultural products are entering the harvest season, with a recommendation to pay attention to this year's grain harvest situation [5] - Recent spot prices for corn and wheat have slightly increased, and the performance of corn seed varieties under extreme weather conditions in the Huang-Huai-Hai region is of particular interest [5] - The emergence of corn varieties with strong resistance to high temperatures and density is noteworthy [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the aquaculture ETF (159865) has seen a significant inflow of 63 million units, suggesting strong investor interest in aquaculture assets [1] - According to Guotai Haitong Securities, the proportion of pigs under 90kg for slaughter has slightly increased to 3.71%, indicating a marginal impact of the epidemic and policies on short-term prices [1] - The long-term perspective suggests that capacity control policies will continue to affect industry supply and pork prices, highlighting the importance of monitoring the determination and strength of these policies [1] Group 2 - Relevant institutions suggest that the aquaculture sector may have gradually entered a configuration range, with a focus on the marginal changes in the aquaculture ETF (159865) [2] - For investors without stock accounts, Guotai Zhongzheng Livestock Breeding ETF Link A (012724) and Guotai Zhongzheng Livestock Breeding ETF Link C (012725) are recommended alternatives [2] - The aquaculture ETF has an approximate pig content of 60%, meaning that the weight of related stocks in the swine breeding, poultry feed, and animal health sectors is significant [2]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [6] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring short-term pig prices and long-term production capacity policies in the pig farming sector [3][12] - In the pet industry, attention is drawn to the top-ranked brands on platforms like Douyin, indicating a shift towards health-focused innovations [4] - The planting sector is highlighted with a focus on the upcoming harvest and the performance of corn varieties under extreme weather conditions [5] Summary by Sections Pig Farming - The report suggests paying attention to the fluctuations in pig prices and the impact of production capacity policies on the industry [3][12] - Recent data shows that the average pig price is 14.10 yuan/kg, reflecting a decrease of 1.25% week-on-week and a significant year-on-year decline of 28.16% [11] Pet Industry - The top three brands in the pet category on Douyin are Maifudi, Weishi, and Frigat, with a notable focus on health-oriented product innovations [4] Planting Sector - As the harvest season approaches, the report advises monitoring the grain yield, particularly corn and wheat prices, which have seen slight increases [5] - Special crops like blueberries and peppers are also highlighted, with attention to the cost changes of raw materials for companies like Chenguang Biological [5] Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks in the pig farming sector include Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs [5] - Other recommended stocks across various sectors include Morning Light Biological, Longping High-Tech, and Petty Holdings in the pet sector [5][41]

Summary of Conference Call on Swine Farming Industry Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the swine farming industry, particularly the impact of production capacity regulation policies on the market dynamics and pricing trends of live pigs [1][3][16]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Price Trends and Influencing Factors** - Pig prices have dropped below 14 yuan, primarily due to the realization of production capacity in Q1 and Q2, with an increase in the number of fattening pigs as a result of accelerated weight reduction and shortened age [2][5]. - The market is expected to see a slight decline in prices in August and September, followed by a potential increase driven by seasonal consumption [2]. 2. **Production Capacity Regulation** - National capacity regulation has significantly impacted the swine industry, especially for large farming companies, effectively controlling the average slaughter weight [3][16]. - Without such regulations, prices could fall due to high slaughter weights and low prices, leading to reduced profitability for farmers [17]. 3. **Weight Reduction Strategies** - Major farming groups, such as Muyuan, have successfully reduced average slaughter weights to around 121 kg, with a target of below 120 kg by the end of August [4]. - The overall weight reduction target completion is approximately 80%, indicating a concerted effort to manage supply levels [4]. 4. **Market Dynamics and Supply Issues** - The supply of fattening pigs has shifted from self-breeding to piglet fattening and secondary fattening, leading to a supply gap due to high costs and losses incurred by farmers [6][11]. - The price difference between standard and fattened pigs is higher than in previous years, attributed to a decrease in self-breeding farmers and insufficient continuous supply of fattened pigs [6]. 5. **Regional Disease Outbreaks** - The southern regions of China are experiencing multiple waves of disease outbreaks, affecting swine populations and contributing to market instability [7]. 6. **Government Policies and Market Confidence** - Recent government policies have positively influenced market confidence, prompting farmers to maintain higher utilization rates of their facilities and prepare for future demand [11]. - Local governments have implemented measures to support production cuts, such as stricter regulations on pig movements and inspections [12][14]. 7. **Future Price Outlook** - The price of live pigs is expected to stabilize and potentially rise in 2026, contingent on the continuation of production capacity reductions [15]. - The fourth quarter is anticipated to see a peak or near-peak price level similar to early July, with a price range between 13 yuan as the upper limit and 13 yuan as the lower limit [6]. Additional Important Insights - There is a notable trend of small and medium-sized farms attempting to expand production despite regulations, often through the rotation of breeding stock to enhance efficiency [12]. - The effectiveness of regulatory measures varies, with larger companies showing better compliance compared to smaller farms that may evade restrictions [16]. - The overall market is characterized by a complex interplay of supply, demand, and regulatory influences, necessitating close monitoring of industry trends and government actions [11][17].