四季度债市展望：纯债的左侧拐点，转债的右侧机会 20251009 摘要 四季度利率走势或呈不对称倒 U 型，受风险因素及跨年配置需求影响。 30 年国债收益率约 2.1%，10 年期 1.8%，5 年期 1.6%，配置价值显 现，交易盘应关注稳定票息资产。 转债市场维持看多，溢价率高位，关注股性及结构性机会。监管趋严或 致部分产品收缩，如短债基金，但货基、专户产品或增量，关注央行与 监管协同效应。 商业银行资本新规影响已逐步释放，预计类似新规在正式执行前 3-4 个 季度开始显现。2024 年初新规对存单冲击有限，市场或提前反应，四 季度集中发酵。 跨年配置是金融机构早投放早收益的驱动因素，四季度利率下行多受政 策、基本面或事件驱动。国债表现通常优于国开债，尤其在 11 月下旬 至 12 月中旬。 三季度 GDP 增速预计 4.8%-4.9%，四季度 4.5%-4.6%，下行趋势未 改。四中全会有增量政策预期，但短期压力不大，货币政策仍是最灵活 工具。 Q&A 对于四季度债市的总体观点是什么？ 四季度债市短期内可能还有最后一跌，点位基本上已经到位，但时间维度上可 能还需要再等一段时间。当前市场情绪较好，但利率 ...

2025.09. 25 本文字数：1089，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 | 第一财经 郑栩彤 第一财经记者获悉，长江存储科技控股有限责任公司（以下简称"长存集团"）近日召开了股份公司成 立大会，大会选举产生了股份公司首届董事会成员。此举意味着该公司完成了股份制改革。 长存集团是国内唯一一家3D NAND原厂长江存储的母公司。据胡润研究院最新发布的《2025全球独 角兽榜》，长江存储估值1600亿元，位列中国十大独角兽第九。2025年4月，上市公司养元饮品发 布对外投资公告，称旗下子公司泉泓投资出资16亿元投资长存集团，获得后者0.99%的股份，以此 计算，长存集团估值则为1616亿元。 除了4月获得来自泉泓投资、农银投资等16家机构的投资，今年7月，长存集团的股东行列中，还新 增了员工持股平台武汉市智芯计划一号至六号企业管理合伙企业（有限合伙），4月和7月两笔融资 额累计超百亿元。长江存储近期受到关注，还因为公司有扩大产能的动作。本月早些时候，长江存储 与湖北长晟三期共同出资207.2亿元成立长存三期（武汉）集成电路有限责任公司，其中长江存储出 资104亿元、持股50.1931%。 NAND Flash是目前最 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent developments in US-China trade relations and their impact on the A-share market, highlighting the mixed performance of various sectors and companies in response to news about potential tariff reductions and trade agreements [1]. Group 1: US-China Trade Relations - Bessent stated that the current tariffs of 145% on Chinese goods and 125% on US goods are unsustainable, suggesting a de-escalation in the near future [1]. - The White House indicated that Trump is laying the groundwork for a trade agreement with China, with a positive outlook on the relationship [1]. - Trump mentioned that he would be "very friendly" in negotiations with Beijing and that tariffs on Chinese imports would significantly decrease but not to zero [1]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the news, sectors such as the outbound industry chain and consumer electronics saw a rebound, with robotics being the standout performer [1]. - Tesla's Elon Musk projected that thousands of Optimus robots would be operational in Tesla factories by the end of the year, with a long-term goal of producing one million units annually by 2029 or 2030 [1]. - Xiaopeng Motors showcased its robot model IRON, which attracted significant attention at an event, indicating strong market interest in robotics [1]. Group 3: Gold Market Outlook - Despite a drop in gold prices, there is a positive long-term outlook for gold due to geopolitical tensions, with Morgan Stanley predicting gold prices could exceed $4,000 per ounce next year [6]. - The report anticipates an average gold price of $3,675 per ounce by Q4 2025, with potential for earlier increases if demand exceeds expectations [6]. Group 4: A-Share Market Performance - The A-share market showed mixed results, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing down 0.1%, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index rose by 0.67% and 1.08%, respectively [7]. - The total market turnover reached 12,625 billion yuan, an increase of 1,412 billion yuan from the previous day [7]. - High-profile stocks experienced declines, with 72 stocks hitting the daily limit up and 16 stocks closing at the limit down [7].